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Opinion polling for the 2015 United Kingdom general election

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Polling results for the 2015 UK General Election, compared to the actual result

In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.

The date range for these opinion polls is from 6 May 2010 (the date of the previous general election) to 7 May 2015.

Most opinion polls cover only Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales). Separate polls covering constituent countries of the UK and English regions are reported further below while polling of individual constituencies and groups of them (such as groups of marginals) is covered in a separate article.

In the event, the actual results proved to be rather different from those indicated by the opinion polls. Opinion polls conducted in the last few months of the campaign, and even in the last few days, had indicated a very close result between the Conservatives and Labour in terms of numbers of votes, suggesting that one of the main parties would have to form a perhaps complex coalition with smaller parties in order to govern.

However the actual results showed a stronger performance by the Conservatives, which gave them an overall majority, since Labour also had a weaker performance than the polls had suggested.[1][2][3] When the exit poll was initially presented, some commentators and politicians doubted it, with Paddy Ashdown even declaring "If this poll is correct I will publicly eat my hat on your programme" in response to the apparently poor results for the Liberal Democrats.[4] The exit poll was eventually proved to have in fact overestimated the Liberal Democrats' performance. If the Survation telephone poll (6 May) had been published it would have produced results within 1% of the election results.

Graphical summary

15-day average trend line of poll results from 6 May 2010 to 7 May 2015, with each line corresponding to a political party.
  Labour Party
  Conservative Party
  Liberal Democrats
  UK Independence Party
  Green Party

The chart shows the relative state of the parties from 13 May 2010 to 7 May 2015, with each line's colour corresponding to a political party: red for the Labour Party, blue for the Conservative Party, purple for the UK Independence Party, yellow for the Liberal Democrats, and green for the combined Green Party of England and Wales and Scottish Green Party. While not shown here, other parties have on occasion polled higher than one or more of the parties represented, for example in the Lord Ashcroft poll conducted on 17–19 April 2015, where the Scottish National Party polled 6% and the Greens 4%.[5] Each dot represents a party's results from an opinion poll displayed in the table below.

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order.[6] The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold.

Throughout the 2010-2015 parliament, first and second places have without exception alternated between the Conservatives and Labour. The Liberal Democrats and the UK Independence Party have tended to hold either third or fourth place in each individual poll. The combined Green parties of England and Wales and Scotland have most frequently polled fifth and have on occasions polled fourth – level with or ahead of the UK Independence Party or the Liberal Democrats. Included in the 'others' column are other smaller parties, the largest of which (by votes at the 2010 general election) are the British National Party, the Scottish National Party and Plaid Cymru. Detailed poll results that break down 'others' for some dates in 2014 and 2010 are available in a second table, below.

2015

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May General Election results (GB only)[7][8] 29,980,107 37.8% 31.2% 8.1% 12.9% 3.8% 6.3% 6.6%
5–7 May Populus[9] 3,917 34% 34% 9% 13% 5% 6% Tied
6 May Survation[10] 1,045 37% 31% 10% 11% 5% 6% 6%
30 Apr–6 May SurveyMonkey[11] 18,131 34% 28% 7% 13% 8% 9% 6%
5–6 May Lord Ashcroft 3,028 33% 33% 10% 11% 6% 8% Tied
5–6 May Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,186 36% 35% 8% 11% 5% 5% 1%
4–6 May YouGov/The Sun 10,307 34% 34% 10% 12% 4% 6% Tied
5–6 May ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News 1,007 35% 34% 9% 12% 4% 6% 1%
4–6 May Survation/Daily Mirror[n 1] 4,088 31% 31% 10% 16% 5% 7% Tied
3–6 May ICM/The Guardian[n 2] 2,023 34% 35% 9% 11% 4% 7% 1%
3–6 May ICM/The Guardian[n 3] 1,560 35% 35% 9% 11% 3% 7% Tied
1–6 May Panelbase[12] 3,019 31% 33% 8% 16% 5% 7% 2%
4–5 May Opinium 2,960 35% 34% 8% 12% 6% 5% 1%
4–5 May YouGov/The Sun 2,148 34% 34% 9% 12% 5% 6% Tied
4–5 May Survation/Daily Mirror 1,504 33% 34% 9% 16% 4% 4% 1%
3–5 May ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News 1,011 35% 32% 9% 14% 4% 6% 3%
3–5 May BMG/May2015.com, New Statesman 1,009 34% 34% 10% 12% 4% 6% Tied
3–4 May YouGov/The Sun 1,664 33% 33% 10% 12% 5% 6% Tied
30 Apr–4 May TNS 1,185 33% 32% 8% 14% 6% 6% 1%
2–3 May YouGov/The Sun 1,789 34% 33% 9% 12% 5% 7% 1%
1–3 May Lord Ashcroft 1,001 32% 30% 11% 12% 7% 9% 2%
1–3 May Populus 2,054 34% 34% 10% 13% 5% 5% Tied
1–2 May YouGov/Sunday Times 1,967 34% 33% 8% 13% 5% 7% 1%
1–2 May Survation/Mail on Sunday 2,128 31% 34% 8% 17% 4% 6% 3%
30 Apr–1 May YouGov/The Sun 1,575 33% 34% 8% 14% 5% 5% 1%
30 Apr–1 May Survation/Daily Mirror 1,117 33% 34% 9% 16% 3% 5% 1%
30 Apr Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Miliband broadcast on BBC One;
Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
29–30 Apr YouGov/Sun on Sunday 1,970 34% 35% 9% 12% 5% 6% 1%
29–30 Apr Populus 2,016 33% 33% 9% 15% 4% 5% Tied
29–30 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,729 34% 35% 8% 12% 5% 6% 1%
29–30 Apr Panelbase 1,020 32% 34% 8% 17% 4% 7% 2%
28–30 Apr ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 1,002 33% 33% 8% 13% 7% 6% Tied
28–30 Apr Opinium/The Observer 1,956 35% 34% 8% 13% 5% 5% 1%
28–29 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,823 35% 34% 9% 12% 4% 6% 1%
26–29 Apr Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,010 35% 30% 8% 10% 8% 9% 5%
27–28 Apr ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 1,005 35% 35% 7% 11% 6% 6% Tied
27–28 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,749 34% 35% 9% 12% 4% 6% 1%
26–27 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,127 35% 34% 9% 12% 5% 6% 1%
25–27 Apr BMG/May2015.com[13] 1,013 35% 32% 11% 14% 3% 5% 3%
23–27 Apr TNS 1,186 34% 33% 7% 15% 5% 5% 1%
25–26 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,096 33% 34% 8% 14% 5% 6% 1%
24–26 Apr Lord Ashcroft 1,003 36% 30% 9% 11% 7% 7% 6%
24–26 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,004 35% 32% 9% 13% 5% 6% 3%
24–26 Apr Populus 2,072 33% 36% 8% 14% 5% 4% 3%
24–25 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 2,271 32% 34% 9% 14% 6% 5% 2%
24–25 Apr Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,004 33% 30% 9% 18% 4% 6% 3%
23–24 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,594 33% 35% 8% 13% 6% 5% 2%
21–24 Apr Opinium/The Observer 1,964 34% 33% 9% 13% 6% 5% 1%
22–23 Apr Populus 2,051 32% 35% 8% 14% 5% 6% 3%
22–23 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,834 33% 35% 8% 13% 6% 6% 2%
22–23 Apr Survation/Daily Mirror 1,205 33% 29% 10% 18% 4% 6% 4%
21–23 Apr Panelbase 1,012 31% 34% 7% 17% 4% 7% 3%
21–22 Apr ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 1,003 36% 32% 8% 10% 5% 9% 4%
21–22 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,060 33% 34% 7% 14% 5% 6% 1%
20–21 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,799 35% 34% 7% 13% 5% 6% 1%
19–20 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,078 34% 35% 7% 13% 5% 6% 1%
16–20 Apr TNS 1,199 32% 34% 8% 15% 5% 6% 2%
18–19 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,675 34% 35% 8% 13% 5% 6% 1%
17–19 Apr Lord Ashcroft 1,002 34% 30% 10% 13% 4% 9% 4%
17–19 Apr Populus 2,048 32% 34% 9% 15% 4% 6% 2%
17–19 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,003 34% 32% 10% 11% 5% 8% 2%
17–18 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,780 33% 36% 8% 13% 5% 5% 3%
16–17 Apr Opinium/The Observer 1,955 36% 32% 8% 13% 5% 6% 4%
16–17 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,713 34% 34% 9% 14% 5% 5% Tied
16–17 Apr Survation/Daily Mirror 1,314 34% 33% 7% 17% 3% 6% 1%
16 Apr Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
15–16 Apr Populus 2,048 33% 34% 9% 14% 4% 5% 1%
15–16 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,939 34% 34% 7% 14% 5% 6% Tied
14–16 Apr Panelbase 1,025 33% 34% 8% 16% 4% 5% 1%
14–15 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,894 34% 35% 8% 13% 5% 6% 1%
12–15 Apr Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,000 33% 35% 7% 10% 8% 7% 2%
13–14 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,842 33% 35% 8% 13% 5% 6% 2%
12–13 Apr YouGov/The Sun 2,444 33% 34% 8% 13% 6% 5% 1%
9–13 Apr TNS 1,192 34% 32% 9% 14% 5% 6% 2%
11–12 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,717 33% 36% 7% 13% 5% 6% 3%
10–12 Apr Lord Ashcroft 1,003 33% 33% 9% 13% 6% 8% Tied
10–12 Apr ICM/The Guardian 1,042 39% 33% 8% 7% 7% 5% 6%
10–12 Apr Populus 2,036 33% 33% 8% 15% 5% 6% Tied
10–11 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,887 34% 34% 7% 13% 6% 6% Tied
9–10 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,782 33% 35% 8% 13% 5% 5% 2%
8–9 Apr Opinium/The Observer 1,916 36% 34% 7% 11% 6% 6% 2%
8–9 Apr Populus 2,020 31% 33% 8% 16% 6% 7% 2%
8–9 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,938 35% 34% 8% 12% 4% 6% 1%
8–9 Apr Survation/Daily Mirror 1,111 31% 35% 9% 15% 4% 6% 4%
7–9 Apr Panelbase 1,013 31% 37% 8% 16% 4% 4% 6%
7–8 Apr ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 1,013 34% 33% 12% 12% 4% 6% 1%
7–8 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,871 34% 35% 8% 13% 5% 5% 1%
6–7 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,672 33% 35% 8% 14% 5% 5% 2%
2–7 Apr TNS 1,207 30% 33% 8% 19% 4% 7% 3%
2–6 Apr Populus 2,008 31% 33% 10% 15% 4% 7% 2%
3–4 Apr YouGov/Sunday Times 1,906 34% 33% 10% 13% 4% 6% 1%
2–3 Apr Opinium/The Observer 1,974 33% 33% 7% 14% 7% 5% Tied
2–3 Apr Survation/Daily Mirror 1,207 31% 33% 9% 18% 3% 6% 2%
2 Apr Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
1–2 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,583 37% 35% 7% 12% 5% 4% 2%
31 Mar–2 Apr Panelbase 1,006 33% 33% 7% 17% 5% 5% Tied
31 Mar–1 Apr Populus 2,057 32% 34% 9% 15% 5% 5% 2%
31 Mar–1 Apr YouGov/The Sun 1,678 36% 34% 8% 13% 4% 5% 2%
30–31 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,566 35% 36% 7% 12% 5% 5% 1%
30 Mar Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
29–30 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,001 35% 35% 8% 12% 5% 5% Tied
26–30 Mar TNS 1,197 33% 32% 8% 16% 5% 7% 1%
28–29 Mar ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 1,005 36% 32% 9% 12% 5% 7% 4%
27–29 Mar Lord Ashcroft 1,004 36% 34% 6% 10% 7% 6% 2%
27–29 Mar Populus 2,004 34% 34% 8% 15% 4% 5% Tied
27–28 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,799 32% 36% 8% 13% 6% 5% 4%
26 Mar First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
25–26 Mar Populus 2,049 31% 33% 9% 16% 5% 6% 2%
25–26 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,698 36% 34% 7% 13% 5% 5% 2%
24–26 Mar Panelbase 1,007 34% 34% 5% 15% 6% 6% Tied
24–25 Mar Opinium/The Observer 1,959 34% 33% 8% 13% 7% 3% 1%
24–25 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,610 34% 35% 8% 12% 6% 5% 1%
24–25 Mar Survation/Daily Mirror 1,007 32% 33% 8% 18% 4% 5% 1%
23–24 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,006 35% 35% 8% 12% 6% 4% Tied
22–23 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,641 34% 34% 8% 12% 6% 5% Tied
18–23 Mar YouGov/The Times 8,271 34% 33% 8% 14% 5% 6% 1%
20–22 Mar ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 1,001 35% 35% 8% 10% 7% 6% Tied
20–22 Mar Lord Ashcroft 1,003 33% 33% 8% 12% 5% 9% Tied
20–22 Mar Populus 2,035 31% 33% 9% 16% 5% 5% 2%
20–21 Mar Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,008 30% 34% 10% 17% 3% 6% 4%
19–20 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,532 33% 35% 8% 14% 5% 5% 2%
18–19 Mar Opinium/The Observer 1,979 36% 33% 7% 14% 6% 4% 3%
18–19 Mar Populus 2,020 31% 34% 9% 17% 5% 4% 3%
18–19 Mar YouGov/The Sun 2,293 35% 33% 8% 13% 6% 5% 2%
18 Mar United Kingdom Budget, 2015 read to Parliament by The Chancellor of the Exchequer.
17–18 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,752 33% 34% 8% 14% 6% 5% 1%
16–17 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,830 34% 36% 7% 12% 6% 5% 2%
15–16 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,683 33% 35% 7% 13% 7% 5% 2%
13–16 Mar TNS 1,188 33% 32% 7% 17% 4% 7% 1%
13–15 Mar Lord Ashcroft 1,002 31% 29% 8% 15% 8% 9% 2%
13–15 Mar ICM/The Guardian 1,001 36% 35% 8% 9% 4% 8% 1%
13–15 Mar Populus 2,041 34% 34% 8% 15% 5% 5% Tied
12–13 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,669 34% 34% 7% 14% 5% 6% Tied
11–13 Mar ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,002 33% 35% 7% 16% 4% 5% 2%
11–12 Mar Populus 2,041 29% 32% 8% 18% 6% 7% 3%
11–12 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,619 33% 32% 7% 16% 6% 6% 1%
10–12 Mar Opinium/The Observer 1,947 33% 35% 7% 14% 7% 5% 2%
10–11 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,728 34% 35% 7% 14% 5% 5% 1%
8–11 Mar Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,025 33% 34% 8% 13% 6% 6% 1%
9–10 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,598 33% 31% 8% 15% 6% 6% 2%
8–9 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,745 35% 31% 8% 14% 6% 6% 4%
6–8 Mar Lord Ashcroft 1,003 34% 30% 5% 15% 8% 7% 4%
6–8 Mar Populus 2,026 32% 33% 9% 15% 6% 6% 1%
5–6 Mar YouGov/Sunday Times 1,754 34% 33% 8% 15% 5% 5% 1%
3–6 Mar Opinium/The Observer 1,961 34% 34% 8% 14% 7% 5% Tied
4–5 Mar Populus 2,063 31% 33% 8% 16% 5% 5% 2%
4–5 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,748 31% 35% 6% 15% 8% 4% 4%
3–4 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,544 34% 34% 8% 14% 6% 4% Tied
2–3 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,701 36% 34% 5% 14% 6% 5% 2%
1–2 Mar YouGov/The Sun 1,866 35% 32% 7% 15% 6% 5% 3%
27 Feb–1 Mar Lord Ashcroft 1,003 34% 31% 7% 14% 7% 8% 3%
27 Feb–1 Mar Populus 2,056 32% 34% 8% 14% 5% 7% 2%
26–27 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,959 34% 34% 8% 14% 5% 5% Tied
25–27 Feb Populus 2,005 31% 33% 9% 16% 6% 5% 2%
25–26 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,638 33% 34% 8% 13% 6% 6% 1%
24–26 Feb Opinium/The Observer 1,948 34% 35% 6% 14% 6% 6% 1%
24–25 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,581 33% 33% 8% 15% 6% 5% Tied
23–24 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,520 35% 33% 6% 14% 7% 5% 2%
23 Feb Survation/Daily Mirror 1,046 28% 34% 10% 19% 4% 5% 6%
22–23 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,772 33% 33% 8% 13% 7% 5% Tied
20–23 Feb ComRes/Daily Mail 1,004 34% 32% 8% 13% 8% 6% 2%
20–22 Feb Lord Ashcroft 1,004 32% 36% 7% 11% 8% 6% 4%
20–22 Feb Populus 2,059 32% 32% 9% 15% 6% 6% Tied
19–20 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,568 33% 34% 8% 13% 6% 6% 1%
17–20 Feb Opinium/The Observer 1,975 35% 33% 6% 15% 7% 5% 2%
18–19 Feb Populus 2,011 31% 32% 9% 17% 6% 5% 1%
18–19 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,564 32% 33% 9% 15% 6% 5% 1%
17–18 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,743 32% 34% 8% 14% 6% 5% 2%
16–17 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,548 33% 34% 6% 15% 7% 5% 1%
15–16 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,580 32% 32% 6% 16% 8% 5% Tied
12–16 Feb TNS 1,193 28% 35% 6% 18% 7% 6% 7%
13–15 Feb Lord Ashcroft 1,004 30% 31% 9% 16% 8% 6% 1%
13–15 Feb Populus 2,012 31% 33% 10% 15% 5% 5% 2%
13–15 Feb ICM/The Guardian 1,000 36% 32% 10% 9% 7% 7% 4%
12–13 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,620 32% 35% 7% 15% 7% 5% 3%
11–12 Feb ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,017 32% 34% 7% 16% 4% 7% 2%
11–12 Feb Populus 2,055 31% 34% 9% 14% 6% 6% 3%
11–12 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,592 31% 34% 7% 15% 7% 6% 3%
10–12 Feb Opinium/The Observer 1,969 33% 35% 8% 14% 6% 6% 2%
10–11 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,764 32% 33% 7% 15% 7% 6% 1%
9–10 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,677 33% 35% 6% 13% 8% 5% 2%
8–10 Feb Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,010 34% 36% 6% 9% 7% 8% 2%
8–9 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,552 34% 33% 7% 14% 7% 6% 1%
6–8 Feb Lord Ashcroft 1,003 34% 31% 9% 14% 6% 6% 3%
6–8 Feb Populus 2,003 33% 34% 8% 15% 4% 4% 1%
5–6 Feb YouGov/Sunday Times 1,668 32% 33% 7% 15% 8% 5% 1%
3–6 Feb Opinium/The Observer 1,947 32% 34% 7% 15% 8% 4% 2%
4–5 Feb Populus 2,056 31% 34% 8% 16% 5% 6% 3%
4–5 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,719 32% 33% 9% 15% 5% 5% 1%
3–4 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,749 34% 33% 6% 13% 7% 7% 1%
2–3 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,705 33% 33% 7% 14% 7% 5% Tied
1–2 Feb YouGov/The Sun 1,630 33% 35% 7% 14% 6% 5% 2%
30 Jan–2 Feb Populus 2,040 31% 34% 8% 14% 5% 6% 3%
29 Jan–2 Feb TNS 1,182 27% 33% 6% 18% 8% 8% 6%
30 Jan–1 Feb Lord Ashcroft 1,002 31% 31% 8% 15% 9% 6% Tied
29–30 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 1,550 32% 35% 7% 15% 6% 5% 3%
27–30 Jan Opinium/The Observer 1,975 32% 33% 5% 18% 6% 6% 1%
28–29 Jan Populus 2,020 34% 35% 10% 14% 4% 3% 1%
28–29 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,593 34% 34% 6% 14% 7% 5% Tied
27–28 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,548 33% 33% 6% 16% 7% 5% Tied
26–27 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,655 34% 33% 7% 14% 7% 5% 1%
25–26 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,656 34% 33% 6% 15% 7% 5% 1%
23–26 Jan TNS-BMRB/BBC Radio 4 Woman's Hour 975 28% 39% 4% 14% 8% 7% 11%
25 Jan Survation/Daily Mirror 1,014 31% 30% 7% 23% 3% 6% 1%
23–25 Jan ComRes/The Independent 1,001 31% 30% 8% 17% 7% 7% 1%
23–25 Jan Populus 2,039 34% 35% 9% 13% 6% 3% 1%
22–25 Jan Lord Ashcroft 1,001 32% 32% 6% 15% 9% 6% Tied
22–23 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 1,578 32% 32% 7% 15% 7% 6% Tied
21–22 Jan Populus 2,049 32% 36% 9% 13% 6% 4% 4%
21–22 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,640 31% 33% 7% 17% 8% 4% 2%
20–21 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,645 33% 34% 6% 14% 8% 5% 1%
19–20 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,570 32% 30% 8% 15% 10% 5% 2%
18–19 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,747 32% 32% 8% 15% 7% 6% Tied
16–19 Jan ICM/The Guardian 1,002 30% 33% 11% 11% 9% 7% 3%
15–19 Jan TNS 1,188 31% 31% 8% 16% 7% 7% Tied
16–18 Jan Lord Ashcroft 1,004 29% 28% 9% 15% 11% 8% 1%
16–18 Jan Populus 2,036 35% 36% 8% 13% 4% 4% 1%
15–16 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 1,647 31% 32% 7% 18% 7% 4% 1%
14–15 Jan YouGov/Sun on Sunday 1,763 31% 33% 7% 16% 7% 6% 2%
14–15 Jan ComRes/Sunday Mirror, Independent on Sunday 2,023 33% 34% 7% 18% 3% 5% 1%
14–15 Jan Populus 2,070 32% 35% 9% 14% 6% 4% 3%
14–15 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,660 32% 32% 6% 16% 8% 6% Tied
13–15 Jan Opinium/The Observer 1,966 28% 33% 7% 20% 6% 6% 5%
13–14 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,834 32% 34% 6% 15% 7% 6% 2%
12–13 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,782 32% 33% 7% 14% 7% 6% 1%
11–13 Jan Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 1,010 33% 34% 8% 11% 8% 6% 1%
11–12 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,649 32% 33% 6% 17% 6% 6% 1%
9–11 Jan Lord Ashcroft 1,002 34% 28% 8% 16% 8% 6% 6%
9–11 Jan Populus 2,056 32% 37% 10% 13% 4% 4% 5%
8–9 Jan YouGov/Sunday Times 1,684 32% 32% 7% 18% 6% 5% Tied
7–8 Jan Populus 2,046 33% 34% 8% 14% 6% 5% 1%
7–8 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,753 33% 33% 8% 13% 7% 6% Tied
6–8 Jan TNS 1,201 28% 35% 6% 18% 5% 8% 7%
6–7 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,707 32% 33% 7% 15% 7% 6% 1%
5–6 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,769 33% 33% 7% 13% 8% 5% Tied
4–5 Jan YouGov/The Sun 1,728 31% 34% 7% 14% 8% 6% 3%
2–4 Jan Populus 2,046 34% 36% 9% 12% 5% 5% 2%
30 Dec–2 Jan Opinium/The Observer 1,970 32% 33% 8% 17% 4% 7% 1%

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

Note: some polls in 2010 did not give an individual figure for the UK Independence Party or the Greens. In these cases, the percentage intending to vote Green and/or UKIP is included with the 'others'.

Sub-national polling

Polling is conducted in the separate constituent countries of the United Kingdom. Of the 650 seats in the House of Commons, England has 533, Scotland has 59, Wales has 40 and Northern Ireland has 18.

England

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election results 25,571,209 41.0% 31.6% 8.2% 14.1% 4.2% 0.9% 9.4%
6 May 2015 Survation[10] 919 40% 32% 11% 11% 5% 2% 8%
5–6 May 2015 ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News 866 38% 36% 9% 12% 4% 1% 2%
5–6 May 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 2,593 35% 33% 10% 13% 7% 2% 2%
4–6 May 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 3,566 34% 32% 10% 17% 5% 2% 2%
3–6 May 2015 ICM/The Guardian[24][n 6] 1,727 37% 37% 8% 13% 4% 1% Tied
3–6 May 2015 ICM/The Guardian[24][n 7] 1,330 38% 37% 8% 12% 3% 1% 1%
4–5 May 2015 Opinium 2,493 37% 35% 8% 12% 7% 1% 2%
4–5 May 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 1,276 35% 34% 9% 17% 4% 1% 1%
3–5 May 2015 ComRes/Daily Mail, ITV News 880 38% 34% 8% 15% 4% 1% 4%
3–5 May 2015 BMG/May2015.com, New Statesman 887 37% 34% 10% 14% 4% 1% 3%
1–3 May 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 858 35% 32% 10% 13% 7% 4% 3%
1–2 May 2015 Survation/Mail on Sunday 1,852 34% 35% 8% 19% 4% 1% 1%
30 Apr–1 May 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 978 36% 34% 10% 17% 4% <0.5% 2%
30 Apr 2015 Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
28–30 Apr 2015 ComRes/Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror 868 35% 34% 8% 14% 8% 2% 1%
28–30 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,658 37% 34% 7% 14% 6% <0.5% 3%
27–28 Apr 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 872 36% 36% 8% 12% 6% 2% Tied
25–27 Apr 2015 BMG/May2015.com 877 39% 31% 11% 15% 4% <0.5% 8%
24–26 Apr 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 870 37% 32% 9% 12% 8% 1% 5%
24–26 Apr 2015 ICM/The Guardian[24] 863 39% 32% 7% 15% 6% <0.5% 7%
24–25 Apr 2015 Survation/Mail on Sunday 879 36% 31% 9% 20% 4% <0.5% 5%
21–24 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,668 36% 33% 9% 15% 7% 1% 3%
22–23 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 1,072 36% 29% 10% 20% 5% <0.5% 7%
21–22 Apr 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 890 39% 34% 8% 11% 5% 3% 5%
17–19 Apr 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 863 36% 33% 9% 14% 5% 2% 3%
17–19 Apr 2015 ICM/The Guardian[24] 863 38% 35% 9% 12% 5% 1% 3%
16–17 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,655 38% 32% 9% 14% 6% 1% 6%
16–17 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 986 35% 34% 8% 18% 3% 1% 1%
16 Apr 2015 Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
12–15 Apr 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 600 35% 37% 8% 11% 8% 1% 2%
10–12 Apr 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 870 34% 36% 9% 14% 6% 1% 2%
10–12 Apr 2015 ICM/The Guardian[24] 900 41% 35% 7% 8% 8% 1% 6%
8–9 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,626 39% 35% 8% 12% 6% 1% 4%
8–9 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 838 33% 36% 9% 16% 5% 1% 3%
7–8 Apr 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 718 36% 35% 11% 13% 4% 1% 1%
2–3 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 856 34% 33% 9% 21% 3% <0.5% 1%
2–3 Apr 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,710 35% 34% 7% 15% 7% 1% 1%
2 Apr 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
28–29 Mar 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 864 38% 32% 9% 13% 6% 2% 6%
27–29 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 865 40% 34% 7% 11% 7% 1% 6%
26 Mar 2015 First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
24–25 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,690 35% 34% 9% 13% 7% <0.5% 1%
24–25 Mar 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 851 34% 34% 8% 20% 4% <0.5% Tied
20–22 Mar 2015 ComRes/ITV News, Daily Mail 864 38% 35% 8% 11% 7% 1% 3%
20–22 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 860 36% 33% 8% 14% 6% 2% 3%
20–21 Mar 2015 Survation/Mail on Sunday 861 31% 35% 10% 19% 3% 1% 4%
18–19 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,702 37% 33% 7% 14% 7% 1% 4%
13–15 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 863 34% 29% 8% 18% 9% 3% 5%
13–15 Mar 2015 ICM/The Guardian[24] 910 38% 37% 6% 11% 5% 3% 1%
10–12 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,654 35% 35% 7% 15% 7% <0.5% Tied
8–11 Mar 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 863 34% 37% 8% 14% 6% 1% 3%
6–8 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 859 36% 31% 5% 18% 9% 1% 5%
3–6 Mar 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,626 36% 33% 7% 15% 7% 3% 3%
27 Feb–1 Mar 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 860 36% 32% 8% 14% 7% 2% 4%
24–26 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,679 35% 36% 7% 14% 6% 1% 1%
23 Feb 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 921 30% 34% 10% 21% 3% 2% 4%
20–23 Feb 2015 ComRes/Daily Mail 865 36% 32% 7% 14% 9% 2% 4%
20–22 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 867 32% 38% 6% 13% 8% 2% 6%
17–20 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,704 36% 33% 7% 16% 7% 1% 3%
13–15 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 863 31% 31% 9% 18% 9% 3% Tied
13–15 Feb 2015 ICM/The Guardian[24] 860 38% 34% 7% 10% 8% 2% 4%
10–12 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,713 35% 35% 8% 15% 5% 1% Tied
8–10 Feb 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 844 38% 37% 7% 10% 8% 0% 1%
6–8 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 860 36% 31% 9% 16% 7% 1% 5%
3–6 Feb 2015 Opinium/The Observer 1,947 33% 35% 7% 15% 8% 2% 2%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 857 34% 30% 8% 17% 10% 1% 4%
25 Jan 2015 Survation/Daily Mirror 890 34% 30% 7% 25% 4% <0.5% 4%
23–25 Jan 2015 ComRes/The Independent 852 33% 29% 9% 20% 8% 1% 4%
22–25 Jan 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 859 33% 34% 5% 17% 9% 2% 1%
16–19 Jan 2015 ICM/The Guardian[24] 863 32% 35% 8% 14% 10% 1% 3%
16–18 Jan 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 871 31% 27% 9% 17% 12% 4% 4%
11–13 Jan 2015 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 854 35% 35% 8% 12% 8% 2% Tied
9–11 Jan 2015 Lord Ashcroft[23] 858 37% 29% 7% 17% 8% 2% 8%
12–16 Dec 2014 ICM/The Guardian[24] 861 31% 33% 11% 17% 5% 3% 2%
13–15 Dec 2014 Ipsos MORI/Evening Standard 840 36% 31% 9% 14% 10% 0% 5%
12–14 Dec 2014 ComRes/The Independent 897 29% 34% 12% 17% 6% 2% 5%
5–7 Dec 2014 Lord Ashcroft[23] 860 31% 31% 7% 23% 6% 2% Tied
6 May 2010 General Election Results 25,085,097 39.6% 28.1% 24.2% 3.5% 1.0% 3.6% 11.5%

Scotland

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size SNP Lab Con LD UKIP Green Others Lead
7 May 2015 General Election results 2,910,465 50.0% 24.3% 14.9% 7.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.3% 25.7%
4–6 May 2015 YouGov/The Sun, The Times 1,351 48% 28% 14% 7% 1% 1% 1% 20%
3–6 May 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,660 46% 26% 16% 7% 2% 3% 1% 20%
1–6 May 2015 Panelbase/Wings over Scotland 1,013 48% 26% 14% 5% 3% 2% 2% 22%
3 May 2015 The Leaders' Debate featuring Ruth Davidson, Jim Murphy, Willie Rennie and Nicola Sturgeon broadcast on BBC One Scotland and BBC News
29 Apr–1 May 2015 YouGov/Sunday Times 1,162 49% 26% 15% 7% 2% 1% 0% 23%
30 Apr 2015 Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon programme also shown
22–27 Apr 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV News 1,071 54% 20% 17% 5% 1% 2% 1% 34%
22–27 Apr 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,015 51% 26% 14% 5% 2% 1% <0.5% 25%
20–23 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,044 48% 27% 16% 4% 3% 2% <0.5% 21%
16–20 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,111 49% 25% 17% 5% 3% 1% 0% 24%
1–19 Apr 2015 TNS 1,003 54% 22% 13% 6% 2% 2% 0% 32%
16 Apr 2015 Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
12 Apr 2015 Four-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on BBC Scotland, for Sunday Politics Scotland
8–9 Apr 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,056 49% 25% 18% 4% 2% 1% 1% 24%
8 Apr 2015 Six-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on BBC Scotland
18 Mar–8 Apr 2015 TNS 978 52% 24% 13% 6% <0.5% 3% 0% 28%
7 Apr 2015 Four-way Scottish Leaders' Debate on STV
2 Apr 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar–2 Apr 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,006 45% 29% 14% 4% 4% 2% <0.5% 16%
26–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/Scottish Sun 1,864 46% 29% 16% 3% 2% 2% <0.5% 17%
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of the UK Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
26 Mar 2015 First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
13–19 Mar 2015 ICM/The Guardian 1,002 43% 27% 14% 6% 7% 3% 1% 16%
12–17 Mar 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,027 47% 26% 16% 4% 4% 2% 1% 21%
10–12 March 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,049 46% 27% 18% 4% 2% 3% 1% 19%
6–10 Mar 2015 Survation/Unison Scotland 1,005 47% 28% 15% 4% 3% 2% 1% 19%
30 Jan–22 Feb 2015 TNS 1,001 46% 30% 14% 3% 3% 4% 1% 16%
12–17 Feb 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,011 45% 28% 15% 5% 3% 3% 1% 17%
29 Jan–2 Feb 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,001 48% 27% 15% 4% 4% 3% 1% 21%
14 Jan–2 Feb 2015 TNS 1,006 41% 31% 16% 4% 2% 6% 1% 10%
12–19 Jan 2015 Ipsos MORI/STV News 774 52% 24% 12% 4% 1% 4% 3% 28%
12–16 Jan 2015 Survation/Daily Record 1,006 46% 26% 14% 7% 4% 3% 1% 20%
9–14 Jan 2015 Panelbase/Sunday Times 1,007 41% 31% 14% 3% 7% 3% 10%
16–18 Dec 2014 ICM/The Guardian 1,004 43% 26% 13% 6% 7% 4% 1% 17%
15–18 Dec 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 48% 24% 16% 5% 4% 1% 1% 24%
13 Dec 2014 Jim Murphy becomes Leader of the Scottish Labour Party
9–11 Dec 2014 YouGov/The Sun 1,081 47% 27% 16% 3% 3% 3% 1% 20%
27 Nov Release of Smith Commission Report
19 Nov Nicola Sturgeon becomes First Minister of Scotland
6–13 Nov 2014 Survation/Daily Record 1,001 46% 24% 17% 6% 5% 2% 1% 22%
30 Oct–4 Nov 2014 Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland 1,000 45% 28% 15% 3% 7% 1% 1% 17%
27–30 Oct 2014 YouGov/The Times 1,078 43% 27% 15% 4% 6% 4% 1% 16%
22–29 Oct 2014 Ipsos Mori/STV 769 52% 23% 10% 6% 2% 6% 1% 29%
24 Oct 2014 Johann Lamont resigns as Leader of the Scottish Labour Party
29 Sep–1 Oct 2014 Panelbase/SNP 1,049 34% 32% 18% 5% 6% 5% 2%
19 Sep 2014 Scottish independence referendum
4–8 Jul 2014 Survation/Daily Record 786 38% 33% 17% 5% 5% 2% <1% 5%
25–26 Jun 2014 YouGov Unknown 31% 39% 16% 5% 10% 8%
6–10 Jun 2014 Survation/Daily Record 773 40% 32% 15% 5% 6% 1% 1% 8%
22 May European Parliament Elections, 2014
11–15 Apr 2014 Survation/Sunday Post 808 36% 36% 16% 6% 3% 1% 1% Tied
4–7 Apr 2014 Survation/Daily Record 803 40% 34% 15% 6% 3% 1% 1% 6%
6–7 Mar 2014 Survation/Daily Record 850 38% 36% 15% 5% 3% 1% 1% 2%
17–18 Feb 2014 Survation/Daily Mail 805 38% 33% 17% 6% 4% 2% 1% 5%
29–31 Jan 2014 Survation/Daily Mail 776 30% 39% 16% 6% 4% 2% 1% 9%
4–8 Oct 2013 Lord Ashcroft 737 31% 40% 18% 6% 2% 2% 1% 9%
22 Feb–9 May 2013 Lord Ashcroft 6,659 23% 45% 16% 8% 5% 2% <1% 22%
17–28 Oct 2012 Lord Ashcroft 703 39% 33% 17% 6% 7% 6%
17–20 Jul 2012 YouGov/Fabian Society 1,029 29% 43% 16% 8% 3% 3% 1% 14%
18–21 May 2012 YouGov Unknown 35% 40% 14% 5% 6% 5%
3 May 2012 Scottish Local Elections, 2012
22–24 Feb 2012 YouGov 1,053 30% 42% 17% 7% 4% 12%
5 May 2011 Scottish Parliament Election, 2011
26–29 Apr 2011 YouGov/Scotsman 1,108 28% 42% 17% 7% 1% 2% 2% 14%
19–21 Apr 2011 YouGov Unknown 30% 43% 15% 7% 5% 13%
13–15 Apr 2011 YouGov Unknown 28% 43% 16% 9% 5% 15%
25–28 Mar 2011 YouGov Unknown 26% 46% 17% 6% 5% 20%
18–20 Oct 2010 YouGov Unknown 26% 44% 18% 7% 5% 18%
31 Aug–3 Sep 2010 YouGov Unknown 29% 39% 16% 11% 5% 10%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 2,465,722 19.9% 42.0% 16.7% 18.9% 0.7% 0.7% 1.7% 22.1%

Wales

Date(s) conducted

Polling organisation/client

Sample size

Plaid

Lab

Con

LD

UKIP

Green

Others

Lead
7 May 2015 General Election results 1,498,433 12.1% 36.9% 27.2% 6.5% 13.6% 2.6% 1.0% 9.7%
4–6 May 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,202 13% 39% 25% 8% 12% 2% 2% 14%
30 Apr 2015 Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
28–30 April 2015 YouGov/Plaid Cymru 1,146 13% 39% 26% 6% 12% 3% 2% 13%
22 Apr 2015 Six-way Wales Election Debate held on ITV
16 Apr 2015 Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
13–15 April 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales, Cardiff University 1,143 12% 40% 26% 6% 13% 4% <0.5% 14%
2 Apr 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
26–31 Mar 2015 YouGov/The Sun 1,035 9% 40% 27% 6% 13% 5% 1% 13%
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
24–27 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,189 11% 40% 25% 5% 14% 5% 1% 15%
26 Mar 2015 First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
5–9 Mar 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,279 10% 39% 25% 5% 14% 6% 1% 14%
19–21 Jan 2015 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,036 10% 37% 23% 6% 16% 8% 1% 14%
8–13 Jan 2015 ICM/BBC Wales 1,004 12% 38% 21% 7% 13% 6% 2% 17%
2–3 Dec 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,131 11% 36% 23% 5% 18% 5% 2% 13%
19–22 Sep 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,006 13% 39% 23% 5% 16% 2% 1% 16%
8–11 Sep 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,025 11% 38% 23% 6% 17% 5% 1% 15%
26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,035 11% 41% 25% 5% 14% 3% 2% 16%
22 May 2014 European Parliament Elections, 2014
12–14 May 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,092 11% 43% 22% 7% 13% 3% 2% 21%
11–22 Apr 2014 YouGov/Cardiff University 1,027 11% 45% 24% 7% 10% 1% 2% 21%
21-24 Feb 2014 ICM/BBC Wales 1,000 15% 45% 24% 6% 8% 2% 1% 21%
10–12 Feb 2014 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,250 11% 47% 22% 7% 9% 2% 2% 25%
2–4 Dec 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,001 12% 46% 21% 8% 10% 2% 2% 25%
18–22 Jul 2013 YouGov 1,012 9% 48% 23% 8% 8% 2% 2% 25%
18–20 Feb 2013 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,007 10% 51% 22% 9% 7% 1% 1% 29%
2–4 Jul 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,000 10% 54% 23% 4% 9% 21%
3 May 2012 Welsh Local Elections, 2012
12–16 Apr 2012 YouGov 1,039 12% 50% 23% 7% 9% 27%
30 Jan–1 Feb 2012 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,008 11% 50% 25% 6% 5% 3% 2% 25%
5 May 2011 Welsh Assembly Election, 2011
2–4 May 2011 YouGov/ITV Wales 1,010 10% 50% 24% 8% 4% 2% 2% 25%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 1,466,690 11.3% 36.2% 26.1% 20.1% 2.4% 0.4% 3.4% 10%

Northern Ireland

Date(s) conducted

Polling organisation/client

Sample size

DUP

SF

SDLP

UUP

Alliance

Others

7 May 2015 General Election Results (NI only) 718,103 25.7% 24.5% 13.9% 16.0% 8.6% 10.3%
11–24 Sep 2014 LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph 1,089 26% 24% 15% 12% 6% 17%
7 Mar 2013 Mid Ulster by-election, 2013.
30 Sep 2013–28 Dec 2013 Northern Ireland Life & Times[25] 1,280 22% 20% 23% 16% 14% 5%
1 Oct 2012–10 Jan 2013 Northern Ireland Life & Times[26] 1,204 27% 19% 21% 16% 13% 3%
9 Jun 2011 Belfast West by-election, 2011.
01 Oct 2010–18 Dec 2010 Northern Ireland Life & Times[26] 1,205 24% 15% 23% 21% 13% 4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results (NI only) 673,871 25% 26% 16% 15% 6% 12%

London

Date(s)
conducted		 Polling organisation/client Sample size Con Lab UKIP LD class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party (UK)/meta/color; width:60px;"|Green Others Lead
29 April–1 May 2015 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,313 33% 46% 8% 9% 3% 1% 13%
30 Apr 2015 Question Time featuring David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Ed Milliband broadcast on BBC One; Ask Nicola Sturgeon, Ask Leanne Wood and Ask Nigel Farage programmes also shown
20–22 April 2015 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,032 32% 44% 10% 8% 5% 1% 12%
16 Apr 2015 Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One
2 Apr 2015 Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV
30 Mar 2015 Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign
26–30 Mar 2015 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,064 34% 45% 8% 8% 4% 1% 11%
20–26 Mar 2015 ICM/The Guardian 1,003 32% 42% 9% 7% 8% 1% 10%
26 Mar 2015 First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4
20–24 Mar 2015 ComRes/ITV News 1,004 32% 46% 9% 8% 4% 1% 14%
27 Feb–2 Mar 2015 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,011 32% 44% 10% 7% 5% <0.5% 12%
19–23 Feb 2015 YouGov/The Times 1,096 34% 42% 9% 8% 6% <0.5% 8%
19–21 Jan 2015 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,034 32% 42% 10% 7% 8% <0.5% 10%
15–18 Dec 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,385 33% 41% 9% 9% 6% <0.5% 8%
8–13 Aug 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,200 34% 41% 9% 10% 3% <0.5% 7%
21–24 Jul 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,350 35% 45% 8% 8% 4% <0.5% 10%
17–19 Jun 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,115 35% 42% 10% 8% 4% <0.5% 7%
6–8 May 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,422 31% 44% 10% 11% 2% <0.5% 13%
29 Apr 2014 Survation 774 26% 42% 15% 12% 2% <0.5% 16%
7–9 Apr 2014 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,209 34% 42% 11% 9% 3% <0.5% 8%
8–10 Oct 2013 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,231 32% 45% 9% 10% 2% 2% 13%
20–25 Jun 2013 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,269 29% 48% 10% 9% 2% 3% 19%
24–30 Apr 2012 Opinium 736 33% 43% 6% 10% 7% 2% 10%
27–29 Apr 2012 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,231 31% 47% 8% 9% 3% 2% 16%
20–22 Apr 2012 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,138 31% 50% 6% 8% 3% 2% 19%
13–15 Apr 2012 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,060 33% 50% 6% 7% 2% 2% 17%
12–15 March 2012 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,226 34% 46% 5% 9% 3% 2% 12%
7–10 Feb 2012 YouGov/Evening Standard 1,106 35% 47% 5% 9% 2% 2% 12%
10–16 Jan 2012 YouGov 1,349 34% 44% 5% 8% 3% 2% 10%
7–9 Jun 2011 YouGov 1,215 32% 51% 3% 8% 3% 2% 19%
5–8 Oct 2010 YouGov 1,271 38% 42% 2% 13% 3% 2% 4%
6 May 2010 General Election Results 3,401,317 34.5% 36.6% 1.7% 22.1% 1.6% 3.5% 2.1%

Detailed poll results

The tables above show poll results just for the five largest parties. Detailed poll results are given below. Often poll companies publish a combined result for SNP and Plaid Cymru, indicated by a merged cell below. Other cases of Party results' not being shown individually are included in the "Others" column, with the individual party's box remaining empty. Results showing <0.5% imply percentages ranging from 0.01% to 0.49%. 0.5% to 1.49% are rounded to 1%.

Methodology

Each polling organisation uses slightly different methodology in their collection of data; a brief description of each company's methods is as follows:

  • Angus Reid Public Opinion collects its data through online internet surveys, and demographically weights its data to be representative of the whole population in terms of age, gender, social class, the region of the country lived in and newspaper readership. Past vote weighting is used, and is calculated separately for respondents from Scotland and respondents from England and Wales, whilst those saying they do not know how they will vote are asked which party they are leaning towards, and any responses to this are used as a full response, whilst those still unsure being discounted from the final calculation of levels of party support.[29]
  • BMG Research[30] is a Birmingham-based social research company which carried out its first political poll from 25 to 27 April 2015 for PoliticsHome,[31] May2015[32] and the Electoral Reform Society, with the voting intention questions being commissioned by May2015.[13] BMG carries out its fieldwork online and weights for past vote and likelihood to vote with people who did not vote at the previous General Election weighted down by 50%.[33] BMG Research is not a member of the British Polling Council but is applying for membership and abides by BPC rules in carrying out opinion polls. It is recognised by the BPC as a market researcher.[34][35]
  • ComRes uses both telephone interviews and online surveys to collect its data; all polls will be conducted using one method exclusively. It is not shown explicitly in the tables in this article whether a particular poll has been conducted by telephone or online but in general those polls with the smaller samples (~1,000) are telephone polls and those with the larger samples (~2,000) were conducted online. The data tables will confirm how the poll was conducted. Whatever the data collection method, all respondents are weighted according to gender, age, social class, household tenure, work status, number of cars owned and whether or not they have taken a foreign holiday in the previous three years. Both telephone and online polls are weighted according to past vote in the last general election, whilst telephone polls also use data from the last 12 ComRes telephone-conducted opinion polls. ComRes compensates for those respondents who says they do not know by asking them instead which party they most clearly identify with, whilst all respondents are weighted according to likelihood to vote on a scale of one to ten, with respondents saying their likelihood of voting is less than four being discounted entirely, and respondents saying their likelihood is more than five being progressively weighted, with a five-out-of-ten likelihood being weighted as half a response and a ten-out-of-ten likelihood being weighted as one whole response.[36]
  • ICM also collects its data through telephone interviews, and also demographically weights its respondents according to their gender, age, social class, household tenure, work status and the region of the country they live in. It weights respondents according to the levels of support a party received in the previous general election and the last 25 ICM opinion polls and, if a past vote is given, this is used to allocate a response to those who say they do not know how they will vote, although such a response is counted as only half of one whole response. ICM also weights its respondents as to how likely they say they are to vote, with respondents who say they are certain to vote given a higher weighting than those who are not as certain, while if a respondent did not vote at the previous general election, their turnout weighting is automatically reduced by half.[37]
  • Ipsos MORI collects its data through telephone interviews, and weights its respondents to be demographically representative of gender, age, social class, work status, work sector, household tenure and the region of the country they live in. Data is not weighted according to the way respondents voted at the previous general election, any respondents who say they do not know how they will vote are discounted, and only the responses of people who says they are certain to vote are included in the final calculation of levels of support for each party.[38]
  • Lord Ashcroft commissions and publishes polls as Lord Ashcroft Polls. On 12 May 2014 he published the first in a series of opinion polls to be published weekly up to the 2015 UK general election.[39] These polls are carried out by telephone, and are past-vote weighted with an allowance for false recall. They are also weighted for likelihood to vote, with a proportion of Don't Knows reallocated to how respondents said they voted at the 2010 general election. The Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and UKIP are prompted for. Lord Ashcroft does not disclose the organisations which carry out his fieldwork, but states that a number are used.[40] Initially, the methodology of the weekly Ashcroft National Poll was said to be similar to that used by Populus before they moved to polling online.[41] He is not a BPC member; he was initially invited to join[42] but the BPC now states that he is not eligible as he does not work for multiple clients.[43]
  • Opinium surveys are conducted online via web interviewing, drawing a sample of responses from the company's panel of around 30,000 people. This sample is representative of the adult population of Great Britain in the areas of age, gender, regional location, working status and social grade, as according to the latest Office for National Statistics data. Responses from different demographic groups are handled appropriately to compensate for differential response rates in these different groups.[44]
  • Populus conducts its surveys over the telephone, and weights all respondents according to gender, age, social class, household tenure, work status, the number of cars they own, and whether they have taken a foreign holiday in the past three years, to be representative of the whole electorate. Respondents are weighted according to their past vote and the levels of support for each party recorded in the previous 20 Populus opinion polls. Respondents who say they do not know how they will vote are allocated according to how they voted at the last general election, at a reduced weighting of 0.5 for previous Conservative or Labour voters and 0.3 for previous Liberal Democrat voters. All respondents are also weighted according to how likely they are to vote, with those certain to vote given the highest weighting.[45]
  • Survation opinion polling is achieved through online surveys, and all data is weighted to represent the wider population of Great Britain in terms of gender, age, socio-economic group, religion, how the respondent previously voted, and stated likelihood of voting in the next general election. Respondents who are either undecided or refuse to state how they would vote are excluded from the final results, unless they have provided details of how they have voted in the past, in which case, that information is used to adjust the results.[46]
  • TNS-BMRB[n 12] interviews a representative sample of adults aged 18+. All interviews are conducted in respondents' homes, although the voting intention data is collected using self-completion methods. The data is weighted twice: firstly to match population totals for age, sex, social grade, working status, presence of children, 2010 voting patterns and region; and secondly, for voting intention questions only, an additional 'likelihood-to-vote' weight is applied.[47]
  • YouGov collects its data through an online survey, and weights its respondents to be representative of the population as a whole in terms of age, gender, social class, identification with a political party, region of the country and newspaper readership. Respondents are weighted according to how they voted in the previous general election in order to achieve a sample that is reflective of each party's level of support at that election, whilst those respondents who say they do not know who they will vote for are discounted from calculating levels of support for each party.[48]

See also

References and notes

Notes
  1. ^ Headline figures published to one decimal place: Con 31.4% Lab 31.4% UKIP 15.7% LD 9.6% Green 4.8 SNP 4.7% Plaid 0.4 Others 1.9%
  2. ^ Final General Election 2015 prediction poll published 7 May 2015 with an additional 463 respondents added to the data published the previous day
  3. ^ Preliminary prediction poll published 6 May 2015
  4. ^ The question asked was "Thinking of the general election in May, for which party will you vote?" rather than Opinium's usual "If there were a general election tomorrow, for which party would you vote?"
  5. ^ This is the VI portion (turnout weighted, Table 4) of Lord Ashcroft's NHS poll, released in January 2015. "VQ.2 If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Base: All respondents expressing an intention to vote (Turnout weighted)"
  6. ^ Final General Election 2015 prediction poll published 7 May 2015 with an additional 463 respondents added to the data published the previous day
  7. ^ Preliminary prediction poll published 6 May 2015
  8. ^ Only stand in Scotland
  9. ^ Only stand in Wales
  10. ^ Polling organisations treat the two Green Parties in Great Britain, the Green Party of England & Wales and the Scottish Green Party, together.
  11. ^ Unusually amongst polling companies, Survation report to one decimal place, and reported Con 30.8%, Lab 31.2%.
  12. ^ Since December 2014, TNS's polls have been mostly branded as TNS or TNS Global.

P – The dates when the fieldwork for this poll was carried out are unknown; therefore, the date of publication has been given.

References
  1. ^ Farmer, Ben. "Why the opinion polls got it so wrong, YouGov president explains". The Telegraph. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  2. ^ Logue, Patrick. "UK Election: Ten key points from the count". Irish Times. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  3. ^ Bennister, Mark. "UK Election 2015: how the votes stacked up for David Cameron". The Conversation. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  4. ^ Selby, Jenn. "Paddy Ashdown's hat becomes the unlikely star of election night after the former Lib Dem leader's misguided prediction". The Independent. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  5. ^ "Ashcroft National Poll: CATI Fieldwork 17-19 April 2015" (PDF). Lord Ashcroft. 20 April 2015. Retrieved 20 April 2015.
  6. ^ "Westminster Voting Intention". UK Opinion Bee. Retrieved 31 January 2015.
  7. ^ "Election 2015: Results - National". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  8. ^ "Election 2015: Results - Northern Ireland". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  9. ^ Parker, George (5 May 2015). "Parties struggle to break UK election deadlock". Financial Times. Retrieved 11 May 2015.
  10. ^ a b Lyons Lowe, Damian (8 May 2015). "Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory". Survation. Retrieved 8 May 2015.
  11. ^ Balz, Dan (7 May 2015). "Cameron expected to emerge victorious, survey finds". Washington Post. Retrieved 11 May 2015.
  12. ^ Trevelyan, Mark (6 May 2015). "Panelbase poll on election eve puts Labour 2 points ahead". Reuters. Retrieved 11 May 2015.
  13. ^ a b "BMG Research expands into political polling". 29 April 2015. Retrieved 29 April 2015.
  14. ^ See also "Opinium poll that "slipped out" has CON ahead with the LDs down on 5%". politicalbetting.com. Retrieved 22 November 2014.
  15. ^ a b c d e f g h i j ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentage for Greens is based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  16. ^ a b c d Lord Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. Before 2 Jun 2014 Ashcroft percentages for Greens are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  17. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentage for UKIP and Greens is based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  18. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q Populus adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentage for UKIP and Greens at this date is based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  19. ^ "Vote 2011: England council elections". BBC. Retrieved 22 November 2014.
  20. ^ a b c d It should be noted that BPIX is not a member of the British Polling Council, unlike the other main pollsters such as YouGov, ComRes, Populus, Ipsos MORI, and ICM. Therefore, the full details of its polls are not subject to public disclosure.
  21. ^ "Election 2010: Results - National". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  22. ^ "Election 2010: Results - Northern Ireland". BBC. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  23. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r Lord Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. The England figures are based on a table that does not adjust for don't knows/refusers.
  24. ^ a b c d e f g h i ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentages for England are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  25. ^ The question asked was "Which of these political parties do you feel closest to?", not a voting intention question.
  26. ^ a b http://www.ark.ac.uk/nilt/2012/Political_Attitudes/POLPART2.html. Retrieved 3 January 2015. {{cite web}}: Missing or empty |title= (help)
  27. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s ICM adjust for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the major party they tend to support. Percentages for SNP/Plaid Cymru/Greens/BNP are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  28. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m Michael Ashcroft adjusts for don't know/refusers by reallocating a proportion of those to the party they tend to support. At this date percentages for Greens/BNP/Others are based on a table that does not adjust for don't know/refusers.
  29. ^ "Angus Reid Public Opinion Methodology" (PDF). Angus Reid Public Opinion. 20 July 2011. Retrieved 26 July 2011.
  30. ^ "BMG Research". 4 February 2016. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  31. ^ "PoliticsHome". 4 February 2016. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  32. ^ "May2015". 4 February 2016. Retrieved 4 February 2016.
  33. ^ Wells, Anthony (29 April 2015). "BMG, MORI Scotland, Ashcroft constituencies and ComRes marginals". UK Polling Report. Retrieved 2 May 2015.
  34. ^ "Election 2015: New exclusive poll puts Tories three points ahead of Labour". May2015.com. 29 April 2015. Retrieved 5 May 2015.
  35. ^ "Election 2015: New exclusive poll puts Labour and Tories on exactly 33.7 per sent each". May2015.com. 5 May 2015. Retrieved 5 May 2015.
  36. ^ "Public Polling Methodology". ComRes. Retrieved 26 July 2011.
  37. ^ "July Poll for the Guardian" (PDF). ICM Research. Retrieved 26 July 2011.
  38. ^ "Data Collection". Ipsos MORI. Retrieved 26 July 2011.
  39. ^ "Tories lead in my first weekly national poll". Lord Ashcroft Polls. Retrieved 19 May 2014.
  40. ^ "Sheffield Hallam, Doncaster North and Thanet South". Lord Ashcroft Polls. 7 February 2015. Retrieved 9 February 2015.
  41. ^ "Ashcroft – CON 34, LAB 32, LDEM 9, UKIP 15". Anthony Wells. Retrieved 2 November 2014.
  42. ^ "Minutes of the Annual General Meeting 2013". British Polling Council. Retrieved 19 May 2014.
  43. ^ Curtice, John (16 April 2015). "Reading the Polls: Election 2015 and The British Polling Council". British Polling Council. Retrieved 1 May 2015.
  44. ^ "Political Polling". Opinium Research LLP. Retrieved 18 April 2012.
  45. ^ "Populus sampling and weighting methodology". Populus. Retrieved 26 July 2011.
  46. ^ "Survation Poll The Budget Aftermath For The Mail On Sunday". Survation. Retrieved 27 March 2012.
  47. ^ "TNS BMRB Methodology". TNS BMRB. Retrieved 17 December 2012.
  48. ^ "Panel Methodology". YouGov. Retrieved 26 July 2011.
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