United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2014

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United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2014
Arkansas
2008 ←
November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04) → 2020

  Tom Cotton official Senate photo.jpg Mark Pryor, Official Portrait, 112th Congress (2011) 1.jpg
Nominee Tom Cotton Mark Pryor
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 478,819 334,174
Percentage 56.5% 39.43%

Arkansas Senatorial Election Results by County, 2014.svg

County results

U.S. Senator before election

Mark Pryor
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tom Cotton
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. Cotton defeated Pryor in the general election. This marks the first time since Reconstruction that Republicans hold both Senate seats in Arkansas, and where the Arkansas congressional delegation is entirely Republican.

Background[edit]

Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.[1] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent Senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were successfully re-elected.[2]

Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen have been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.[3] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana’s Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.[4]

Democratic primary[edit]

Pryor was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

  • Bobby Tullis, former State Representative[6]

Republican primary[edit]

Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Declined[edit]

Third parties[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive[12]
  • Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the State House in 2010[12]

General election[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Fundraising[edit]

Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand
Mark Pryor (D) $10,428,246 $12,034,784 $364,653
Tom Cotton (R) $7,557,443 $6,411,763 $1,885,435

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Pryor (D)
Tom
Cotton (R)
Other Undecided
Opinion Research Associates October 30–November 1, 2014 400 ± 5% 45% 43% 4%[19] 8%
Public Policy Polling October 30–November 1, 2014 1,092 ± 3% 41% 49% 4%[20] 5%
45% 51% 4%
Rasmussen Reports October 27–29, 2014 967 ± 3% 44% 51% 4% 2%
Issues & Answers Network October 21–27, 2014 568 ± 4.1% 36% 49% 15%
Opinion Research Associates October 25–26, 2014 401 ± 5% 45% 44% 2%[21] 10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,567 ± 4% 42% 47% 1% 10%
NBC News/Marist October 19–23, 2014 621 ± 3.9% 43% 45% 6%[22] 7%
971 ± 3.1% 43% 42% 6%[23] 9%
Talk Business/Hendrix October 15–16, 2014 2,075 ± 2.2% 40.5% 49% 4.5%[24] 6%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–15, 2014 940 ± 3% 44% 47% 4% 5%
Fox News October 4–7, 2014 707 ± 3.5% 39% 46% 5%[25] 11%
Opinion Research Associates October 1–5, 2014 400 ± 5% 45% 42% 5% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 1,991 ± 2% 41% 45% 1% 13%
Rasmussen Reports September 24–25, 2014 750 ± 4% 40% 47% 5% 8%
Suffolk September 20–23, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 44.8% 43% 5.4%[26] 6.8%
Public Policy Polling September 18–21, 2014 1,453 ± 2.6% 38% 43% 6%[27] 13%
39% 45% 15%
Hickman Analytics September 13–18, 2014 801 ± 3.5% 46% 43% 11%
Gravis Marketing September 8–11, 2014 902 ± 4% 43% 47% 2%[28] 8%
Answers Unlimited September 7–9, 2014 600 ± 3.5% 46% 42% 4%[29] 8%
NBC News/Marist September 2–4, 2014 639 LV ± 3.9% 40% 45% 6%[30] 9%
1,068 RV ± 3% 41% 41% 8%[31] 11%
Hickman Analytics August 26–September 3, 2014 700 ± 3.7% 45% 43% 12%
CNN/ORC International August 28–September 2, 2014 523 LV ± 4.5% 47% 49% 4%
839 RV ± 3.5% 47% 38% 14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 1,572 ± 3% 39% 43% 2% 16%
ccAdvertising August 31–September 1, 2014 1,735 ± ? 29% 37% 34%
Rasmussen Reports August 25–26, 2014 750 ± 4% 44% 43% 6% 6%
Opinion Research Associates August 6–14, 2014 414 ± 4.9% 46% 41% 4%[32] 9%
Public Policy Polling August 1–3, 2014 1,066 ± 3% 39% 41% 7%[33] 14%
41% 43% 16%
Talk Business/Hendrix College July 22–25, 2014 1,780 ± 2.3% 42% 44% 7%[34] 7%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research July 20–24, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 46% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,628 ± 2.9% 45% 49% 1% 5%
Gravis Marketing July 7–8, 2014 987 ± 3% 44% 51% 5%[35]
Impact Management Group June 29, 2014 1290 ± 2.72% 43% 47% 10%
Magellan Strategies June 4–5, 2014 755 ± 3.57% 45% 49% 2% 4%
Fabrizio Lee June 3–5, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 51% 5%
Public Opinion Strategies May 27–29, 2014 500 ± 4.39% 41% 46% 13%
Rasmussen Reports May 27–28, 2014 750 ± 4% 43% 47% 4% 6%
NBC News/Marist April 30–May 4, 2014 876 ± 3.3% 51% 40% 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling April 25–27, 2014 840 ± 3.4% 43% 42% 16%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014 857 ± 3.35% 43% 46% 4% 7%
New York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014 857 ± 4% 46% 36% 4% 15%
Harper Polling April 9–10, 2014 522 ± 4.29% 39% 39% 22%
Opinion Research Associates April 1–8, 2014 400 ± 5% 48% 38% 8%
Talk Business/Hendrix College April 3–4, 2014 1,068 ± 3% 45.5% 42.5% 4%[36] 8%
Anzalone Lizst Grove Research March 27–April 2, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 45% 7%
Hickman Analytics February 17–20, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 40% 37% 8% 14%
46% 46% 8%
Impact Management Group February 10, 2014 1,202 ± 2.83% 42% 46% 13%
Harper Polling January 26–27, 2014 533 ± 4.24% 36% 42% 22%
Rasmussen Reports February 4–5, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40% 45% 5% 10%
Public Policy Polling December 13–15, 2013 1,004 ± 3.1% 44% 44% 12%
Polling Company/WomanTrend December 6–7, 2013 400 ± 4.9% 41% 48% 9%
Impact Management Group October 24, 2013 911 ± 3.2% 41% 42% 18%
University of Arkansas October 10–17, 2013 800 ± 3.5% 34% 32% 34%
Public Policy Polling October 14–15, 2013 955 ± 3.2% 44% 41% 15%
Talk Business/Hendrix College October 8, 2013 603 ± 4% 42% 41% 17%
Harper Polling September 24–26, 2013 622 ± 3.93% 45% 42% 13%
Global Strategy Group August 26–29, 2013 501 ± ?% 47% 40% 13%
Polling Company/WomanTrend August 6–7, 2013 600 ± 4% 45% 43% 12%
Harper Polling August 4–5, 2013 587 ± 4.04% 41% 43% 16%
On Message Inc. July 29–30, 2013 600 ± 4% 42% 44% 14%
Clark Research July 23–27, 2013 729 ± 4% 43% 35% 21%
Basswood Research June 22–23, 2013 600 ± 4% 41% 40% 19%
Basswood Research March 16–17, 2013 600 ± 4% 35% 43% 22%

Results[edit]

U.S. Senate election in Arkansas, 2014[37]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Cotton 478,819 56.5
Democratic Mark Pryor (Incumbent) 334,174 39.43
Libertarian Nathan LaFrance 17,210 2.03
Green Mark Swaney 16,797 1.98
Write-ins Others 505 0.06
Majority 144,645 17.07%
Total votes 847,505 100
Republican gain from Democratic

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Blog Archive » Rebekah Kennedy Pulls Record Results for U.S. Senate - America’s #1 Source for Green Party News & Views". Green Party Watch. 7 November 2008. Retrieved 4 September 2010. 
  2. ^ "Mark Pryor Could Face Historic Defeat in 2014". Smart Politics. 5 August 2013. Retrieved 6 August 2013. 
  3. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (March 20, 2013). "Tom Cotton's Quandary: Can House Freshmen Win Senate Seats?". Smart Politics. 
  4. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (November 17, 2014). "Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?". Smart Politics. 
  5. ^ "Sen. Mark Pryor is running for re-election in 2014". Arkansas Times. April 19, 2012. 
  6. ^ "D.C. GOP can’t get a pulse on Arkansas". Natural State Report. July 31, 2013. 
  7. ^ Glueck, Katie (31 July 2013). "Arkansas's Tom Cotton to run for U.S. Senate". Politico. 
  8. ^ Daniels, Alex; Frago, Charlie (November 12, 2012). "Democrat Mark Pryor seen as likely GOP target in ’14". Arkansas Online. 
  9. ^ DeMillo, Andrew (August 13, 2013). "Mark Darr Announces Run for Arkansas' 4th District Seat". Arkansas Business. Associated Press. 
  10. ^ [1][dead link]
  11. ^ a b c Saylor, Ryan (August 7, 2013). "Democrats, Republicans React To Cotton, Changing Political Landscape". Talk Business Arkansas. Retrieved August 13, 2013. 
  12. ^ a b "Candidates who filed for office in Arkansas". sfgate.com. March 3, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014. 
  13. ^ Trygstad, Kyle. "Club for Growth Backs Mark Pryor Challenger". Roll Call. Retrieved August 7, 2013. 
  14. ^ Leary, Alex. "Rubio endorses Tom Cotton in Arkansas Senate race". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved 20 September 2013. 
  15. ^ Kubin, Jacquie. "Allen West Guardian Fund 2014: Endorsing tomorrow's leaders". The Washington Times. Retrieved 19 September 2013. 
  16. ^ "Rick Santorum and Patriot Voices PAC Announce Endorsements in Four Key U.S. Senate Races". Patriot Voices. April 22, 2014. Retrieved April 25, 2014. 
  17. ^ "Political Note: Romney Endorses Cotton". Time Record Online Edition. June 13, 2014. Retrieved July 31, 2014. 
  18. ^ Brantley, Max (April 25, 2014). "UPDATE: Arkansas Education Association to endorse Mark Pryor. And, boy, did he go after Cotton today on Medicare, Social Security". Arkansas Times. Retrieved July 31, 2014. 
  19. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  20. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  21. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1%
  22. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
  23. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
  24. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2.5%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  25. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1%
  26. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2.8%, Mark Swaney (G) 2.6%
  27. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  28. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L)
  29. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  30. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
  31. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1%
  32. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  33. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
  34. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
  35. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L)
  36. ^ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  37. ^ "November 4, 2014 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 23, 2014. 

External links[edit]