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Undid revision 704778482 by American In Brazil (talk)Removed for undue Weight. Removing them is NOT vandalism. That is not true. Tell the truth.That's the best you can do?
Removing legal opinions by respected legal scholars, including Harvard, Cruz's own law school, is vandalism. Meet on Talk for consensus. Until then, leave in place.
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=== Iowa ===
=== Iowa ===
On February 1, 2016, Cruz won the first Republican nomination contest, that day's [[Iowa]] Republican caucus. Cruz held 28% of the overall vote, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in second and third place at 24% and 23%.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/01/politics/iowa-caucuses-2016-highlights/|title=Iowa caucus results: Ted Cruz wins; Clinton, Sanders tied|date=February 2, 2016|publisher=CNN}}</ref> This makes Cruz the first Hispanic person to win the Iowa caucus.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/02/01/iowans-to-choose-trump-aggressiveness-cruz-conservatism-or-rubio-moderation/|title=Ted Cruz makes history, becomes first Hispanic to win Iowa caucus|work=Fox News Latino}}</ref>
On February 1, 2016, Cruz won the first Republican nomination contest, that day's [[Iowa]] Republican caucus. Cruz held 28% of the overall vote, with Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in second and third place at 24% and 23%, respectively.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/01/politics/iowa-caucuses-2016-highlights/|title=Iowa caucus results: Ted Cruz wins; Clinton, Sanders tied|date=February 2, 2016|publisher=CNN}}</ref> This makes Cruz the first Hispanic person to win the Iowa caucus.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/02/01/iowans-to-choose-trump-aggressiveness-cruz-conservatism-or-rubio-moderation/|title=Ted Cruz makes history, becomes first Hispanic to win Iowa caucus|work=Fox News Latino}}</ref>
[[File:Iowa Republican caucus, 2016.svg|thumb|300px|Results of the Iowa Republican caucus, 2016
[[File:Iowa Republican caucus, 2016.svg|thumb|300px|Results of the Iowa Republican caucus, 2016
{{legend|#4389e3|Cruz—40-50%}}
{{legend|#4389e3|Cruz—40-50%}}
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[[Neal Katyal]] and [[Paul Clement]], both former heads of the [[Solicitor General of the United States|Office of Solicitor General of the United States]] under [[Barack Obama]] and [[George W. Bush]] respectively, have written in the ''[[Harvard Law Review]]'' that "While the field of candidates for the next presidential election is still taking shape, at least one potential candidate, Senator Ted Cruz, was born in a Canadian hospital to a U.S. citizen mother. Despite the happenstance of a birth across the border, there is no question that Senator Cruz has been a citizen from birth and is thus a “natural born Citizen” within the meaning of the Constitution. Indeed, because his father had also been resident in the United States, Senator Cruz would have been a “natural born Citizen” even under the [[Naturalization Act of 1790]]."<ref>{{cite journal |last=Katyal |first=Neal |last2=Clement |first2=Paul |date=March 11, 2015 |title=On the Meaning of “Natural Born Citizen” |url=http://harvardlawreview.org/2015/03/on-the-meaning-of-natural-born-citizen/ |journal=[[Harvard Law Review]] |publisher=The Harvard Law Review Association |volume=128 |issue= |pages=161 |doi= |access-date=11 February 2016}}</ref>
[[Neal Katyal]] and [[Paul Clement]], both former heads of the [[Solicitor General of the United States|Office of Solicitor General of the United States]] under [[Barack Obama]] and [[George W. Bush]] respectively, have written in the ''[[Harvard Law Review]]'' that "While the field of candidates for the next presidential election is still taking shape, at least one potential candidate, Senator Ted Cruz, was born in a Canadian hospital to a U.S. citizen mother. Despite the happenstance of a birth across the border, there is no question that Senator Cruz has been a citizen from birth and is thus a “natural born Citizen” within the meaning of the Constitution. Indeed, because his father had also been resident in the United States, Senator Cruz would have been a “natural born Citizen” even under the [[Naturalization Act of 1790]]."<ref>{{cite journal |last=Katyal |first=Neal |last2=Clement |first2=Paul |date=March 11, 2015 |title=On the Meaning of “Natural Born Citizen” |url=http://harvardlawreview.org/2015/03/on-the-meaning-of-natural-born-citizen/ |journal=[[Harvard Law Review]] |publisher=The Harvard Law Review Association |volume=128 |issue= |pages=161 |doi= |access-date=11 February 2016}}</ref>


Mary Brigid McManamon, a constitutional law professor at [[Widener University School of Law]], concluded the Constitution's framers "required the president of the United States to be born in the United States."<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ted-cruz-is-not-eligible-to-be-president/2016/01/12/1484a7d0-b7af-11e5-99f3-184bc379b12d_story.html|title=Ted Cruz is not eligible to be president|date=January 12, 2016|first=Mary Brigid|last=McManamon|publisher=The Washington Post}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-ted-cruz-not-natural-born-citizen-president-20160112-story.html|title=Face it, Ted Cruz. You can't be president.|first=Mary Brigid|last=McManamon|date=January 12, 2016|publisher=Chicago Tribune}}</ref><ref>McManamon, Mary (2015), [http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2600163_code940398.pdf?abstractid=2444766&mirid=5 "The Natural Born Citizens Clause as Originally Understood"], 64 Catholic University Law Review 317</ref> Professor [[Eric Posner]] of the [[University of Chicago Law School]] wrote that the under the "most plausible constitutional interpretation" Cruz is ineligible.<ref name=Posner>{{cite news |last=Posner |first=Eric |date=February 8, 2016 |title=Ted Cruz Is Not Eligible to Be President: At least according to the most plausible constitutional interpretation. |url=http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_chicago/2016/02/trump_is_right_ted_cruz_is_not_eligible_to_be_president.html
Mary Brigid McManamon, a constitutional law professor at [[Widener University School of Law]], concluded the Constitution's framers "required the president of the United States to be born in the United States."<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ted-cruz-is-not-eligible-to-be-president/2016/01/12/1484a7d0-b7af-11e5-99f3-184bc379b12d_story.html|title=Ted Cruz is not eligible to be president|date=January 12, 2016|first=Mary Brigid|last=McManamon|publisher=The Washington Post}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-ted-cruz-not-natural-born-citizen-president-20160112-story.html|title=Face it, Ted Cruz. You can't be president.|first=Mary Brigid|last=McManamon|date=January 12, 2016|publisher=Chicago Tribune}}</ref><ref>McManamon, Mary (2015), [http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2600163_code940398.pdf?abstractid=2444766&mirid=5 "The Natural Born Citizens Clause as Originally Understood"], 64 Catholic University Law Review 317</ref> Professor [[Eric Posner]] of the [[University of Chicago Law School]] wrote that under the "most plausible constitutional interpretation" Cruz is ineligible.<ref name=Posner>{{cite news |last=Posner |first=Eric |date=February 8, 2016 |title=Ted Cruz Is Not Eligible to Be President: At least according to the most plausible constitutional interpretation. |url=http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/view_from_chicago/2016/02/trump_is_right_ted_cruz_is_not_eligible_to_be_president.html
|newspaper=[[Slate (magazine)|Slate]] |access-date=February 8, 2016}}</ref> Professor Einer Elhauge of [[Harvard Law School]] agrees with Professor McManamon that "natural born" means "native born" and therefore the wording of the Constitution "does not permit his ([[Ted Cruz]]'s) candidacy."<ref>{{cite news|url=http://chicago.suntimes.com/opinion/7/71/1265855/opinion-cruz-really-natural-born-american|title=Opinion: Cruz not really 'natural born citizen'|date=January 20, 2016|first=Einer|last=Elhauge|work=[[Chicago Sun-Times]]|accessdate=January 21, 2016}}</ref> Professor Robert Clinton at the [[Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law]] at [[Arizona State University]] is also of the opinion that "natural born citizen" means "born in the United States."<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-01-27/ted-cruz-is-not-a-natural-born-citizen-according-to-the-constitution|title=Ted Cruz Is Not A 'Natural Born' Citizen|date=January 27, 2016|first=Robert|last=Clinton|work=''[[U.S. News & World Report]]''|access-date=January 28, 2016}}</ref>
|newspaper=[[Slate (magazine)|Slate]] |access-date=February 8, 2016}}</ref>


[[Laurence H. Tribe]], who taught a constitutional law class that Cruz attended at Harvard Law School, wrote that "no real court" is likely to bar Cruz from the Presidency but under the [[originalism]] theory that Cruz advocates, Cruz would be barred. Tribe also said that "[existing naturalization laws] didn't address, much less resolve, the matter of presidential eligibility, and no Supreme Court decision in the past two centuries has ever done so. In truth, the constitutional definition of a 'natural born citizen' is completely unsettled, as the most careful scholarship on the question has concluded."<ref name=Tribe11Jan>{{cite news|url=https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/01/11/through-ted-cruz-constitutional-looking-glass/zvKE6qpF31q2RsvPO9nGoK/story.html|title=Under Ted Cruz’s own logic, he’s ineligible for the White House|first=Laurence H.|last=Tribe|date=January 11, 2016|accessdate=January 12, 2016|work=Boston Globe}}</ref> Thomas Lee of [[Fordham Law School]] also said a "constitutional originalist" should conclude Cruz is not a natural-born citizen but under other [[Jurisprudence|theories of interpretation]] he may be.<ref name=Lee>{{cite news |last=Lee |first=Thomas |date=January 10, 2016 |title=Is Ted Cruz a 'natural born Citizen'? Not if you're a constitutional originalist. |url=http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-lee-is-ted-cruz-eligible-to-be-president-20160110-story.html |newspaper=[[Los Angeles Times]] |location=Los Angeles, California |access-date=January 14, 2016}}</ref>
[[Laurence H. Tribe]], who taught a constitutional law class that Cruz attended at Harvard Law School, wrote that "no real court" is likely to bar Cruz from the Presidency but under the [[originalism]] theory that Cruz advocates, Cruz would be barred. Tribe also said that "[existing naturalization laws] didn't address, much less resolve, the matter of presidential eligibility, and no Supreme Court decision in the past two centuries has ever done so. In truth, the constitutional definition of a 'natural born citizen' is completely unsettled, as the most careful scholarship on the question has concluded."<ref name=Tribe11Jan>{{cite news|url=https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/01/11/through-ted-cruz-constitutional-looking-glass/zvKE6qpF31q2RsvPO9nGoK/story.html|title=Under Ted Cruz’s own logic, he’s ineligible for the White House|first=Laurence H.|last=Tribe|date=January 11, 2016|accessdate=January 12, 2016|work=Boston Globe}}</ref> Thomas Lee of [[Fordham Law School]] also said a "constitutional originalist" should conclude Cruz is not a natural-born citizen but under other [[Jurisprudence|theories of interpretation]] he may be.<ref name=Lee>{{cite news |last=Lee |first=Thomas |date=January 10, 2016 |title=Is Ted Cruz a 'natural born Citizen'? Not if you're a constitutional originalist. |url=http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-lee-is-ted-cruz-eligible-to-be-president-20160110-story.html |newspaper=[[Los Angeles Times]] |location=Los Angeles, California |access-date=January 14, 2016}}</ref>

Revision as of 01:29, 15 February 2016

Cruz for President
CampaignRepublican primaries
U.S. presidential election, 2016
CandidateTed Cruz
U.S. Senator (2013–present)
AffiliationRepublican Party
StatusAnnounced March 23, 2015
HeadquartersP.O. Box 25376
Houston, Texas
Key peopleJeff Roe, campaign manager, Jason Johnson, chief strategist
ReceiptsUS$47,086,857 (2015-12-31[1])
Slogan
Chant'Cruz to Victory!'
Website
Cruz for President

The 2016 presidential campaign of Ted Cruz, the junior United States Senator from Texas, was announced through social media and a later event at Liberty University on March 23, 2015. Cruz has been seen as a potential candidate for the Republican nomination for President of the United States since shortly after taking office in 2013.

Background

Senator Cruz speaking at the 2014 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland

Leading up to the 2016 presidential election cycle, commentators expressed their opinion that Cruz would run for President in 2016.[2][3][4] On March 14, 2013, he gave the keynote speech at the 2013 Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, D.C.[5] He tied for 7th place in the 2013 CPAC straw poll on March 16, winning 4% of the votes cast.[6] He performed even more strongly in the 2014 CPAC straw poll, coming in second with 11% behind Kentucky senator Rand Paul.[7] In the 2015 CPAC poll, he came in third with 11.5% behind Wisconsin governor Scott Walker and Paul.[8] In October 2013, Cruz won the Values Voter Summit Presidential straw poll with 42% of the vote, which was the highest percentage of any winning candidate in that poll's history.[9] A year later, he won the same poll again by a smaller margin of 25%, becoming the first person to ever win more than one VVS straw poll.[10] He came in first place in the two most recent Presidential straw polls conducted in 2014 with 30.33% of the vote at the Republican Leadership Conference[11] and 43% of the vote at the Republican Party of Texas state convention.[12]

Cruz spoke at events in the summer of 2013 across Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, early primary states, leading to speculation that he was laying the groundwork for a run for President in 2016.[13] On April 12, 2014, Cruz spoke at the Freedom Summit, an event organized by Americans for Prosperity and Citizens United.[14] The event was attended by several potential presidential candidates.[15] In his speech, Cruz mentioned that Latinos, young people and single mothers are the people most affected by the recession, and that the Republican Party should make outreach efforts to these constituents. He also said that the words "growth and opportunity" should be tattooed on the hands of every Republican politician.[14]

Cruz, whose Canadian birth has prompted some to challenge his eligibility for presidential office under the natural-born-citizen clause,[16] formally applied to renounce his dual Canadian citizenship in the run-up to his campaign, and ceased being a citizen of Canada on May 14, 2014.[17][18]

Campaign

Cruz with his wife Heidi at a rally in Houston, March 2015

Announcement and preliminaries

Cruz announced his campaign for the presidency on March 23, 2015, at Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia, during the student convocation.[19][20] In his announcement speech, Cruz spoke of his plans for a constitutional government and said he would "stand for liberty".[21] Cruz called on the audience to imagine a president repealing the Affordable Care Act and supporting Israel, economic growth, border security while allowing legal immigration, a flat tax and the abolition of the IRS.[22] Liberty University students were reportedly forced to attend the event, since it was one of the three required convocations of the week, or else face a fine, a report that the university's president Jerry Falwell Jr. confirmed but added, "No one is expected to agree with every speaker on every point."[23] He became the first announced major Republican presidential candidate for the 2016 campaign.[24][25]

Cruz was believed to have initiated a long shot presidential bid, commentators referring to him as having no chance of winning the nomination, much less the general election, due to what was perceived as his lack of likability.[26][27][28] Cruz, a freshman senator running for the presidency in his first term, faced comparisons to President Barack Obama who similarly ran for the presidency during his first term in the U.S. Senate.[29] Cruz dispelled similarities by calling the president a "backbencher" who did not take positions on "whole lot of issues of consequence" during his tenure in the senate, which he argued could not be applied to him, in effect spending the first few days of his presidential campaign trying to distance himself from the incumbent president.[30][31][32]

On April 1, Public Policy Polling showed Cruz in third place at 16%, behind potential candidates Jeb Bush and Scott Walker who were at 17% and 20%. Having been in sixth place the previous month with 5%, Cruz's gain was viewed by Dan Riehl of Breitbart.com as costly to Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee in particular, another pair of potential candidates who were popular among evangelicals.[33] Cruz's name recognition significantly increased shortly after his campaign began, in April rising by 21 points to 82% from the 61% he had the previous month.[34]

Cruz expressed his intent in May to not engage in "personal attacks" with other candidates as the field started to increase, opting to only focus on issues, which he defined as the "meat" of politics.[35] Cruz welcomed several candidates into the race following their individual announcements of their candidacy for the presidency, praising them as well.[36][37] A Des Moines Register poll released in May showed Cruz in eighth place at 5% among caucus goers.[38] Cruz doubled down on his appearances in Iowa starting in June.[39]

On August 3, 2015, Cruz was featured in YouTube video frying bacon off the end of a semi-automatic rifle at the Central Iowa Impact Gun Range in Boone, Iowa.[40] "There is nothing I enjoy more than on weekends cooking breakfast with the family," Cruz said in the video. "Of course in Texas we cook bacon a little differently than most folks."[41] The month of August also saw the release of a campaign video where Cruz promised in his opposition to Planned Parenthood to prosecute the organization for "selling body parts".[42] In the first few months of the campaign, Cruz held campaign rallies in Tulsa[43] Columbus,[44] Hoover, Huntsville and Montgomery.[45]

August–September campaigning

Cruz successfully qualified for the first presidential debate of the election cycle, coming in 6th place in the overall list of the top 10 candidates.[46] Cruz's performance was mostly well-received, although debate coach and strategist Michael Sheehan found him annoying and strategist Rick Wilson wondered if the performance, despite showing "Cruz-like brilliance", helped him as much as people thought.[47] In a NBC News poll released on August 9, three days following the Ohio Republican presidential debate, Cruz came in 2nd place with 13% overall, more than doubling his prior support.[48]

Cruz journeyed to the southern states in the days following the debate, eight of which being slated to cast ballots on March 1 on a day monikered the "SEC Primary". He courted voters while going on bus tours, his rivals spending time campaigning in Iowa. "Like the SEC does two-a-days, we're doing two-a-days here right now," Cruz campaign manager Jeff Roe said. "Everybody comes in for a Fourth of July event -- a big speech, or some sort of cattle call -- but spending the time, doing these type of events? We don't see that from anybody else."[49] Cruz's public appearances throughout the southern states were well-publicized.[50][51]

The second Republican presidential debate took place on September 16, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library and Museum in Simi Valley, California. As with the first debate, Cruz did not participate in the "verbal combat" between the other candidates, only criticizing former Presidents George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush for their appointments of David Souter and John Roberts to the Supreme Court, arguing the pair could have appointed conservatives in their place that would have voted "differently on cases that enraged the conservative base."[52] In hindsight, Cruz's undistinguished Fox News and CNN debate performances were viewed as being purposeful, as he "was biding his time."[53] In a poll released on September 20, four days after the debate, Cruz came in sixth place, tied with Mike Huckabee.[54] Cruz visited Kentucky around this time, in support of the release of Kim Davis, but reportedly was blocked by an aide to Huckabee from appearing alongside her.[55]

Days after fellow presidential candidate Donald Trump did not correct a man who claimed President Obama was a Muslim, a move that generated controversy and negative reception by the White House, Democrats and Republicans, Cruz declined to answer whether he thought the president was a Christian, reasoning that Obama's faith "is between him and God" and opted to give his stance that the Obama administration had been antagonistic towards Christians.[56] Cruz debunked fellow presidential candidate Ben Carson's claim that a Muslim should not serve as President, saying, "The Constitution specifies there shall be no religious test for public office, and I'm a constitutionalist."[57]

Momentum post-CNBC debate

Cruz speaking at an event hosted by the Iowa Republican Party in October 2015

Cruz was a participant in the CNBC Republican presidential debate on October 28. In his opening statement, he stressed his willingness to govern properly, and later in the debate charged the moderators with asking bait questions. Cruz's performance was well-received, as he had "effectively articulated" his strategy of being the second choice for voters, enough of which would give him "the broadest base of support left when the dust clears."[58] Cruz was also seen as having won the debate.[59] Cruz was the most discussed of all candidates on Facebook the night of the debate and came in second to Donald Trump on Twitter for the most-talked about.[60]

On October 31, Cruz was a speaker at a Growth and Opportunity Party event in Iowa. It was commented that Cruz received the biggest showing of the ten candidates present at the event.[61] In a poll released on November 2, Cruz came in second place for favorability among Iowans, only surpassed by Ben Carson.[62] Two other polls released the same day showed Cruz in third place in Iowa at 15%, behind Donald Trump and Ben Carson.[63] In a Quinnipiac University poll, noted by Fox News as having been taken after the CNBC debate, Cruz came in fourth place at 13%, behind the two aforementioned candidates and Marco Rubio.[64] Cruz stated shortly after the poll that the possibility of Rubio and himself being the last candidates remaining in the crowded field was a "plausible outcome."[65] Cruz received the most votes of any candidate in the field on Breitbart.com, which was held in the days following the CNBC debate.[66]

As a result of many candidates feeling the CNBC debate was not balanced, some candidates signed a list of debate demands. Cruz refused to sign, stating in a Fox News interview that he wasn't "interested in signing letters."[67] In November, The Courageous Conservatives PAC published a radio ad, stating, "Ted Cruz makes things happen. … After Sandy Hook, Ted Cruz stopped Obama’s push for new gun-control laws." Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy said at the time of the ad's release that it made him want to vomit and he was sure these feelings were shared by those who had also lived through Sandy Hook.[68]

On November 8, Cruz participated at the National Religious Liberties Conference alongside Bobby Jindal and Mike Huckabee, and said that "any president who doesn’t begin everyday on his knees isn’t fit to be commander-in-chief".[69] On November 24, a Quinnipiac University poll was released with Cruz in second place in Iowa at 23%, only surpassed by Donald Trump.[70] This was seen as evidence that Cruz was finally being able to garner the support of those who had supported candidates with no prior political experience such as frontrunners Trump and Carson, and establishing his credibility as a contender for the Republican Party's nomination.[71][72] Additionally, it led some to believe that Cruz had made the right decision in avoiding conflicts with other candidates and focusing solely on his own substance.[73]

Rise in the aftermath of the Paris attacks

The November 2015 Paris attacks were widely viewed as altering the Republican field in a significant way, and in particular benefiting the campaigns of both Cruz and Marco Rubio.[74] In the wake of the attacks, candidates with hawkish foreign policy stances, as well as hardliner stances on immigration, saw a rise in national polling.[75] As a result, both Rubio and Cruz began to steadily rise in most polling averages by taking away the numbers of Ben Carson, who was seen as soft on both foreign policy and immigration. Thus, Cruz eventually rose to #3 in most averages by the end of November, only behind Rubio and Trump, and eventually came in second place by mid-December, only behind Trump.[76][77]

Soon after, in the beginning of December, a Monmouth University poll was released, Cruz leading in Iowa at 24%.[78] A CNN/ORC poll showed Cruz in second place to Trump among likely voters in the state's caucus with 20%.[79] Though the polls were seen as contradicting each other and even causing Iowa to face the prospect of having two front-runners within the primary,[80] Cruz was consistently seen by voters as a second choice to a Republican candidate that could win the general election, only behind Trump.[81] On December 12, The Des Moines Register released a poll with Cruz leading Trump in Iowa by 10 points at 31%.[82][83] Two days later, on December 14, Cruz polled in a close second place to Trump in Iowa with 27%, Trump ahead by only a single point.[84][85]

Momentum after CNN debate

On December 15, Cruz participated in the second CNN Republican debate in Las Vegas, Nevada, the fifth overall of the election cycle, his overall performance being seen as strong and some commentators dubbing him the winner of the event.[86][87][88] In the days following the debate, Cruz defended himself against claims by Rubio during the debate that he supported an immigration reform proposal two years prior in 2013 that would have included amnesty for undocumented immigrants,[89][90] outright stating during a rally on December 17, "I oppose amnesty. I oppose citizenship. I oppose legalization for illegal aliens. I always have and I always will."[91][92][93] December 22, coincidentally Cruz's 45th birthday, saw the release of a Quinnipiac poll where Cruz came in second place to Trump nationally, behind him by just four percentage points at 24%.[94][95][96]

By early January, Cruz continued to lead in Iowa, averaging 31.8%.[97] However, a Quinnipiac University poll released on January 11 showed Cruz in second place to Trump at 29%, who had 31%.[98] A Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll released on January 13 showed Cruz in first place with 25%.[99] Cruz was a participant in the second Fox Business debate on January 14, defending himself against the accusations of possible issues resulting from his birth in Canada while also indicating that the controversy was generated by his opponents due to his rise in the polls in the last few months as well as his senate record.[100][101][102]

During the second Fox Business debate, Cruz was questioned on his meaning when he stated beforehand that Trump embodied New York values.[103] He was also criticized for the statement by New York Republicans and Democrats.[104][105] The January 15 issue of Daily News, released the day after the debate, had a front page reading, "Drop dead, Ted." The cover also called on him to return to Canada.[106] Cruz acknowledged the criticism and apologized to New Yorkers "who have been let down by the liberal politicians in that state." He also apologized on behalf of Bill de Blasio for what he called his standing with "looters and the criminals" instead of law enforcement.[107]

Cruz's opposition to ethanol led Iowa's governor, Terry Branstad to publicly express disapproval of him on January 19, arguing that his win would be at the expense of jobs for Iowans and reduce income for farms. Branstad's comments were a far cry from the behavior of previous governors of the state during the Iowa caucus, who typically remained neutral.[108][109] Hours after the governor's comments, Sarah Palin, who had been a supporter of Cruz during his run for the U.S. Senate four years prior, endorsed Trump.[110] These events propelled Theodore Schleifer of CNN to conclude that Cruz "has had better days."[111] The next day, a CNN poll showed Cruz in second place at 14% in New Hampshire, his highest in the state by that point, but still significantly less than Trump who led with 34%.[112]

By late January, Trump had overtaken Cruz in the polls in Iowa, and led in the Real Clear Politics average with 33.6%, while Cruz was trailing with 27.2% just 6 days before the caucus.[113] Cruz was a participant in the second Fox News debate. He was seen by some pundits as losing due to his defensive positions on his prior positions on immigration as well as subsides for ethanol and falling flat on his attempts at humor.[114][115] In a final Iowa poll released on January 30, two days before the caucus was to take place, Cruz came in second place to Trump by five percentage points at 23%.[116][117]

Claims of JFK legacy

Multiple times in the campaign, Cruz has done impressions or impersonations of John F. Kennedy and made claims that Kennedy would be a Republican if he were alive today. The Kennedy family has spoken out condemning the claims with open letters to the media regarding the positions of Kennedy and Cruz.[118][119][120]

Caucuses and primaries 2016

Iowa

On February 1, 2016, Cruz won the first Republican nomination contest, that day's Iowa Republican caucus. Cruz held 28% of the overall vote, with Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in second and third place at 24% and 23%, respectively.[121] This makes Cruz the first Hispanic person to win the Iowa caucus.[122]

Results of the Iowa Republican caucus, 2016
  Cruz—40-50%
  Cruz—30-40%
  Cruz—20-30%
  Tied between Cruz and Trump
  Trump—20-30%
  Trump—30-40%
  Trump—40-50%
  Rubio—20-30%
  Rubio—30-40%
External image
image icon Official interactive map of the results from the Republican Iowa caucuses
Iowa Republican caucuses, February 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Projected
delegate count 		Actual
delegates
Ted Cruz 51,666 27.6% 8
Donald Trump 45,427 24.3% 7
Marco Rubio 43,165 23.1% 7
Ben Carson 17,395 9.3% 3
Rand Paul 8,481 4.5% 1
Jeb Bush 5,238 2.8% 1
Carly Fiorina 3,485 1.9% 1
John Kasich 3,474 1.9% 1
Mike Huckabee 3,345 1.8% 1
Chris Christie 3,284 1.8% 0
Rick Santorum 1,783 1.0% 0
Other 119 0.1% 0
Jim Gilmore 12 0.0% 0
Total: 186,874 100% 29 30

New Hampshire

In a poll release on February 8, Cruz came third, right behind Trump and Rubio.[123] However, he has managed to pick up support from Rand Paul's fallen campaign within the state.

On February 9, 2016, Cruz came in third--earning 3 delegates and 11.7% of the vote--behind Trump and John Kasich, performing better than Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio.

New Hampshire primary, February 9, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Projected
delegate count 		Actual
delegates
Donald Trump 100,360 35.3% 10
John Kasich 44,907 15.8% 4
Ted Cruz 33,189 11.7% 3
Jeb Bush 31,309 11.0% 3
Marco Rubio 30,030 10.6% 3
Chris Christie 21,068 7.4% 0
Carly Fiorina 11,705 4.1% 0
Ben Carson 6,509 2.3% 0
Jim Gilmore 133 0.0% 0
Other
Total: 279,077 100% 23 23

South Carolina

Cruz was a participant in the February 13 CBS debate, where he was accused by both Rubio and Trump of lying over the course of his campaign in an attempt to get elected. Cruz reiterated comments made by Rubio on Univision and when the latter claimed he could not speak Spanish, Cruz retorted using the language and demonstrating that he was bilingual.[124]

Eligibility

Further information: Natural-born-citizen clause § Ted_Cruz

Questions have been raised as to whether Cruz meets the constitutional qualification that the President must be a natural-born citizen as Cruz was born in Canada.[125] Commentators for the Austin American-Statesman[126] and the Los Angeles Times[127] speculated about Cruz's legal status. In January 2016, suit was brought seeking a judicial determination of the issue.[128] After Donald Trump, Cruz's opponent in the Republican primary, repeatedly questioned whether Cruz met the qualifications of being a natural born citizen,[129] Houston, Texas attorney Newton B. Schwartz Sr. filed suit in Texas, pleading that "This 229-year question has never been pled, presented to or finally decided by or resolved by the U.S. Supreme Court... Only the U.S. Supreme Court can finally decide, determine judicially and settle this issue now."[128]

Because he was a U.S. citizen at birth (his mother was a U.S. citizen who lived in the U.S. for more than 10 years as outlined by the Nationality Act of 1940), most commentators believe Cruz is eligible to serve as President of the United States.[125][130][131][132][133] According to a memo from the Congressional Research Service "The weight of scholarly legal and historical opinion appears to support the notion that 'natural born Citizen' means one who is entitled under the Constitution or laws of the United States to U.S. citizenship 'at birth' or 'by birth,' including any child born 'in' the United States, the children of United States citizens born abroad, and those born abroad of one citizen parent who has met U.S. residency requirements."[130]

Neal Katyal and Paul Clement, both former heads of the Office of Solicitor General of the United States under Barack Obama and George W. Bush respectively, have written in the Harvard Law Review that "While the field of candidates for the next presidential election is still taking shape, at least one potential candidate, Senator Ted Cruz, was born in a Canadian hospital to a U.S. citizen mother. Despite the happenstance of a birth across the border, there is no question that Senator Cruz has been a citizen from birth and is thus a “natural born Citizen” within the meaning of the Constitution. Indeed, because his father had also been resident in the United States, Senator Cruz would have been a “natural born Citizen” even under the Naturalization Act of 1790."[134]

Mary Brigid McManamon, a constitutional law professor at Widener University School of Law, concluded the Constitution's framers "required the president of the United States to be born in the United States."[135][136][137] Professor Eric Posner of the University of Chicago Law School wrote that under the "most plausible constitutional interpretation" Cruz is ineligible.[138] Professor Einer Elhauge of Harvard Law School agrees with Professor McManamon that "natural born" means "native born" and therefore the wording of the Constitution "does not permit his (Ted Cruz's) candidacy."[139] Professor Robert Clinton at the Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law at Arizona State University is also of the opinion that "natural born citizen" means "born in the United States."[140]

Laurence H. Tribe, who taught a constitutional law class that Cruz attended at Harvard Law School, wrote that "no real court" is likely to bar Cruz from the Presidency but under the originalism theory that Cruz advocates, Cruz would be barred. Tribe also said that "[existing naturalization laws] didn't address, much less resolve, the matter of presidential eligibility, and no Supreme Court decision in the past two centuries has ever done so. In truth, the constitutional definition of a 'natural born citizen' is completely unsettled, as the most careful scholarship on the question has concluded."[141] Thomas Lee of Fordham Law School also said a "constitutional originalist" should conclude Cruz is not a natural-born citizen but under other theories of interpretation he may be.[142]

In February 2016, the Illinois Board of Elections ruled that Cruz is a natural-born citizen.[143] The Board said: "The candidate is a natural born citizen by virtue of being born in Canada to his mother who was a U.S. citizen at the time of his birth."[143]

Fundraising

Cruz raised nearly US$4 million in the first eight days after he announced his presidential campaign.[144] 95% of the donations to Cruz's campaign came in contributions of less than US$100.[144]

Ted Cruz supporters in Naples Florida, January 2016.
Ted Cruz supporters in Naples, Florida, January 2016

On April 8, 2015, it was reported that super PACs backing Cruz had raised US$31 million in a week, one of the biggest fundraising surges in modern presidential-race history to date.[145] The Cruz campaign is funded by six separate super PACs,[146] an unusually large number, described as "unprecedented" by CNN campaign finance experts.[147][148] According to Dathan Voelter, treasurer of several of the PACs, this allows megadonors to exercise "influence and control" over how their money is spent on the campaign. Of the PACs, Keep the Promise I is funded primarily by an US$11 million donation from Robert Mercer,[149] Keep the Promise II is funded entirely from a US$10 million donation from Toby Neugebauer,[150] and Keep the Promise III is funded by US$15 million[151] donated by Dan and Farris Wilks, two billionaire brothers from Cruz's home state of Texas, and their wives.[147] As of July 25, a total of US$38 million was pledged to Keep The Promise super PACs.[152]

Within the days following the first Republican primary debate, Cruz announced in Franklin, Tennessee, that his campaign had raised over US$1 million in the first 100 hours.[153] It was reported by National Journal that donors who had supported fellow Texan politician and former Governor of Texas Rick Perry during his 2012 presidential campaign had given Cruz over US$895,000 while Perry had only been given US$376,000 for his own 2016 campaign, concurrent with Cruz's.[154] Within the first 48 hours after the second Republican primary debate, Cruz's campaign raised US$1 million, the result of more than 15,000 donations, the average being US$49.54. Cruz said he was "thrilled by the outpouring of financial support we’ve seen in such a short amount of time".[155]

On October 8, the Cruz campaign announced US$12 million during the previous fundraising quarter, noted by The New York Times as being "substantially less" than that of Ben Carson's campaign who raised US$20 million in the same time but double than that of Marco Rubio, who had raised US$6 million within that period. in a campaign statement, it was reported more than 6,000 of his contributors had pledged intentions to make recurring donations every month.[156] By this point, according to the Campaign Finance Institute, Cruz was in second place in the Republican primary for large donors, after Jeb Bush. On October 26, billionaire Darwin Deason announced alongside "five other wealthy Texans" that they would be aboard his campaign.[157] The donors beforehand supported Rick Perry prior to his presidential campaign ending the previous month.[158]

Less than 24 hours after the CNBC Republican presidential debate, the Cruz campaign raised US$1.1 million in what was the third straight post debate US$1 million fundraising haul.[159] Over the last three months of 2015, Cruz raised US$20 million, increasing his campaign's finances by 66% from its earnings of the previous quarter. Campaign manager Jeff Roe in a memo reported that the Cruz campaign had received 300,000 donors' contributions and told supporters that the campaign had "a network in place with the resources required to win that is the envy of every other campaign."[160] On January 7, Cruz's campaign was joined by Republican megadonor Dick Uihlein, who donated US$1 million to his super PAC. Drew Ryun, who works for the Cruz super PAC, said Uihlein was in the top five of the courted Republican donors and called landing him a "good shot in the arm for Ted" as well as boosting the campaign in Iowa.[161] On January 20, in an interview with Mark Levin, Cruz announced that his campaign had superseded US$50 million.[162]

Strategy

Theodore Schleifer of CNN wrote of Cruz's campaign strategy, "Raise enough money to go the distance, court the fans of other conservative candidates who inevitably drop out, and emerge in the spring as the clear conservative alternative to an establishment favorite like Bush."[163] Barnes acknowledged doubts that Cruz could win the general election, stressing that he would have to carry states won by Mitt Romney during the 2012 presidential election and reverse several victories by President Obama to gain enough electoral votes.[164]

Cruz himself believes that the 2016 election will be similar to the 1980 presidential election, suggesting the eventual Republican nominee can win the election through being a conservative and appealing to those types of voters. Cruz has often repeated a line from Ronald Reagan, that to win the election, the Republican Party should be "raising a banner of no pale pastels, but bold colors."[165][166] The Cruz campaign noted that four million conservative voters did not turn out during the previous election, though Barnes noted previous defeats of Republican nominees even when these voters deployed.[164]

Kenneth Vogel reported in July 2015 that Cruz had partnered with London-based Cambridge Analytica to collect and analyze data on American voters and using strategic communication to manage voter behavior.[167]

Garnering supporters from other candidates

With Rick Perry's exit from the race on September 11, David Johnson, one of Perry's backers in Iowa, reported being approached by Cruz Iowa state director Bryan English who asked if he would consider "another Texan for president". Additionally, Doug Deason, the son of a $5 million donor to Perry's super PAC, mentioned at the time of his dropping out that he had dined with Cruz "a few evenings ago" and was contacted by Cruz finance director Willie Langston.[168]

After Scott Walker dropped out of the race on September 21, Cruz's campaign website announced its signing of all three of Walker's Georgia grassroots co-chairmen.[169] In early November, Cruz's campaign was joined by former Walker Iowa strategist David Polyansky.[170][171][172]

On September 28, Cruz released a video showing eight former supporters of Ron Paul who had begun backing him and announced that Bob Barr would chair the coalition of the Cruz campaign composed of libertarian-leaning Republicans. Katie Zezima of The Washington Post wrote that the former Ron Paul supporters would have been inclined to support his son Rand Paul's presidential campaign.[173] On January 10, Sam Pimm, who worked for the Ben Carson campaign in New Hampshire, publicly announced he was withdrawing from Carson's campaign to support Cruz. Pimm expressed his belief that Carson could not win the nomination and viewed Cruz as having a higher probability of doing so.[174][175]

Relationship with Donald Trump

On August 10, Cruz cautioned rival Republican presidential candidates from dismissing Trump, citing that he was attracting large crowds and doing so would not help Republicans reclaim the White House.[176] On September 9, Cruz and Trump made a joint appearance at a rally opposing the 2015 international nuclear agreement with Iran.[177] On November 17, Trump named Cruz when asked about a potential running mate, citing that he liked Cruz and that the senator had backed everything he had said.[178][179] On November 30, Cruz stated during a town hall meeting in Iowa that he believed Trump would not be the nominee.[180]

It was observed by some commentators that Cruz was straying from insulting or making any disparaging remarks towards Donald Trump in an effort to get his supporters.[181] Despite this, Cruz came in third place in a Fox News poll, behind Trump and Carson. Tied with Marco Rubio, the poll was said to "poked a hole in the narrative" along with Ben Carson's support rising from 23% to 33% in a poll without Trump while Cruz only went up from 11% to 13%.[182] The day following the Fox Business debate, Cruz outlined his differences from Trump.[183] It was noted by commentators that although Cruz could gain the supporters of Trump should he drop out, there was also the possibility that he would not, which would lead to this effort being for naught.[184][185]

Former President George W. Bush reportedly said that he did not like Cruz and found him to be opportunistic toward Trump, also stressing his belief that Cruz would be a "pretty formidable candidate" to Jeb Bush around the south. Though the Cruz campaign initially declined commenting, Cruz released a public statement where he expressed his "great respect" for the former president and that he would "always be grateful to him" since he met his wife while working on his presidential campaign in 2000. Cruz reasoned that Bush's remarks were made to support his brother, the cause of his additional commenting on other candidates, though Cruz refused to "reciprocate" any attacks.[186]

On December 11, during an appearance in Iowa, Trump admitted to liking Cruz, but mentioned that "not a lot of evangelicals come out of Cuba". The comment was seen as a reference to Cruz's father Rafael Cruz, who had escaped from Cuba in his early adulthood and was viewed as Trump's first attack on Cruz.[187] Following those remarks, on December 13, Trump went on to say that he had "far better judgement" than Ted Cruz, citing his opposition to the Iraq War as an example.[188]

Trump was involved in questioning of Cruz's eligibility for the presidency in January and claimed he was trying to help Cruz, who argued that in politics, "it's fairly unusual for your opponents who are running for the same position to be actually trying to help you".[189] Commentator Jim Newell called Trump's raising of Cruz's legality "brilliant" since it highlighted the problems his winning of the Republican nomination could bring for the party.[190] Cruz responded to Trump on January 12 with the assertion that he and Hillary Clinton knew each other well and that "it's interesting that Hillary Clinton's key supporters are doing everything they can to echo Donald's attacks on me."[191]

After Cruz and Trump had several exchanges in the Fox Business debate on January 14, Trump said after the debate that he believed "the bromance" between the pair had ended.[192] On January 17, Trump acknowledged Cruz had been "so nice to me" before dubbing him "a nasty guy" and furthering, "Nobody likes him, nobody in Congress likes him, nobody likes him anywhere once they get to know him."[193] Cruz said on January 25 that Trump potentially could become "unstoppable" if he were to win Iowa, at the same time mentioning his substantial lead in New Hampshire and arguing that his campaign was the only one that could defeat Trump in Iowa.[194]

With Trump declining to participate in the January 28 Fox News debate, Cruz invited him to a one-on-one debate, saying he would like to invite Trump if the latter was afraid of Megyn Kelly and launching a website seeking support of those in favor of a debate between the two candidates.[195] Trump's campaign responded by saying Trump would debate Cruz if the two became the last candidates in the race.[196] Trump himself responded by claiming that he had bested Cruz in the previous debates and asked if the one-on-one debate could be in Canada.[197] Cruz lampooned Trump at the Fox News debate, saying, "Now, secondly, let me say I’m a maniac and everyone on this stage is stupid, fat, and ugly. And Ben, you’re a terrible surgeon."[198]

On January 31, Trump criticized Cruz for a controversial mailer that the Cruz campaign sent to voters in Iowa. The mailer was designed to look like an official document that accused the recipient of a "VOTING VIOLATION" for failure to turn out in past elections. The mailer was promptly condemned by Iowa Secretary of State Paul Pate who said the mailer "misrepresents the role of my office, and worse, misrepresents Iowa election law."[199]

Endorsements

See also: Endorsements for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
List of Ted Cruz endorsements

See also

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External links

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