2010 United States Senate elections

United States Senate elections, 2010

November 2, 2010
Class III (34 of the 100) seats to the United States Senate and two mid-term vacancies from Class I and Class II
Leader Harry Reid Mitch McConnell Party Democratic Republican Leader's seat Nevada Kentucky Last election 59 seats (including 2 independents) 41 seats Current seats 60 seats (including 2 independents) 40 seats (per realignment of Sen. Specter)
Senate Seats up for Election:   Two Democratic incumbents   Democratic incumbent   Retiring Democrat   Republican incumbent   Retiring Republican   No election
Incumbent Majority Leader Harry Reid Democratic

Elections to the United States Senate will be held on November 2, 2010, for 36 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate. A special election will be held in Massachusetts on Jan 19, 2010.

Thirty-four of the seats are for six-year terms, beginning January 3, 2011. They will join Senate Class III, which traces its roots back to the Senators who served full six-year terms from March 4, 1789 to March 3, 1795.

The Senate is currently composed of 58 Democrats, 40 Republicans, and two independents who caucus with the Democrats. Of the seats expected to be up for election in 2010, 19 are held by Democrats and 18 are held by Republicans.

Predictions

The following seats are considered safe in all these predictions. Therefore, they do not appear in the table below
Democratic: Hawaii, Maryland, New York (Schumer *), Oregon, Vermont, Washington
Republican: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah

Source	Safe Democratic	Likely Democratic	Leans Democratic	Tossup	Leans Republican	Likely Republican	Safe Republican
The Cook Political Report (updates) as of January 14, 2010	Wisconsin Indiana	New York*	California	Arkansas Colorado Connecticut Delaware Illinois Massachusetts Nevada Pennsylvania Kentucky Missouri New Hampshire Ohio	Louisiana	Florida North Carolina	Georgia Iowa North Dakota
CQ Politics (updates) as of January 15, 2010	Wisconsin Indiana	California New York* Connecticut	Pennsylvania	Arkansas Colorado Illinois Massachusetts Nevada Kentucky Missouri New Hampshire Ohio	Delaware Louisiana North Carolina	Florida North Dakota	Georgia Iowa
New York Times (updates) as of January 6, 2010	Wisconsin New York* Massachusetts	California Indiana	Arkansas Connecticut Nevada Pennsylvania	Colorado Delaware Illinois Missouri New Hampshire Ohio	North Dakota Kentucky Louisiana North Carolina	Florida	Georgia Iowa
The Rothenberg Political Report (updates) as of January 14, 2010	California New York* Wisconsin Indiana	Connecticut		Arkansas Colorado Illinois Pennsylvania Massachusetts Kentucky Missouri New Hampshire Ohio	Delaware Nevada North Dakota Louisiana North Carolina	Iowa Florida	Georgia
The Swing State Project (updates) as of January 15, 2010	New York* Wisconsin Indiana	Connecticut		Arkansas Colorado Delaware Illinois Massachusetts Pennsylvania Kentucky Missouri New Hampshire Ohio	Nevada North Carolina	Florida Iowa Louisiana North Dakota
Campaign Diaries (updates) as of January 6, 2010	Indiana	California New York* Wisconsin	Connecticut Illinois Pennsylvania	Arkansas Colorado Delaware Nevada Kentucky Missouri New Hampshire Ohio	Florida North Carolina North Dakota	Iowa Georgia Louisiana
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball (updates) as of November 20, 2009	Wisconsin Indiana Massachusetts	California New York*		Arkansas Colorado Connecticut Delaware Illinois Nevada North Dakota Pennsylvania Kentucky Missouri New Hampshire Ohio	Louisiana North Carolina	Florida Iowa	Georgia

* There are two elections in New York: Schumer (safe) and Gillibrand (* in the table).

Overview of races (37 seats)

Retiring Democratic Senators (5 seats)

Christopher Dodd of Connecticut

Main article: United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2010

Five-term Democratic incumbent Christopher Dodd was reelected with 66% of the vote in 2004. Barack Obama won Connecticut with 60.59% of the vote in 2008. Facing grim prospects for reelection, Dodd announced that he is not running for reelection. Popular Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal plans to run for the seat, which is widely expected to improve the Democrats' chances of holding the seat in November.

On the Republican side, former Congressman Rob Simmons, State Senator Sam Caligiuri, former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment Linda McMahon, and former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley have all announced their candidacies. Euro Pacific Capital President and noted financial pundit Peter Schiff, an outspoken libertarian who has gained attention for correctly predicting the subprime mortgage crisis despite mockery from other industry analysts, announced he is running for Senate on September 17, after raising more than a million dollars. In late November 2009, Caligiuri switched races and announced a bid for the 5th congressional district seat held by Democrat Chris Murphy. Also, Foley indicated that he would consider dropping his Senate bid to run for Governor of Connecticut.

Vincent Forras and Dr. John Mertens have filed paperwork to run as independents. Consumer advocate and perennial presidential candidate Ralph Nader is "absorbing" feedback about a possible bid as a Green Party candidate.

Ted Kaufman of Delaware

Main article: United States Senate special election in Delaware, 2010

Democratic Senator Joe Biden was simultaneously reelected to the U.S. Senate and elected Vice President of the United States on November 4, 2008. Although Biden was sworn in for his seventh term on January 6, 2009, he tendered his resignation effective January 15 in preparation for taking office as Vice President on January 20, 2009.

On November 24, 2008, former Democratic Governor Ruth Ann Minner announced Biden would be replaced by Democrat Ted Kaufman, his former chief of staff, sometime in January 2009. He was subsequently sworn in on January 15. A special election for the remainder of the term, which expires on January 3, 2015, will be held in 2010. Kaufman announced that he will not be a candidate in the special election.

Popular former Republican Governor and U.S. Representative Mike Castle, who represents the state at large in the U.S. House, announced in October, 2009 that he would run for the seat. Christine O'Donnell, the Republican nominee who ran against and lost to Joe Biden in 2008, has announced that she will run again.

On the Democratic side, Vice President Biden's son, Beau Biden, the current Attorney General of Delaware who returned September 25, 2009 from serving in Iraq with the Delaware National Guard, is considering a run and would be an early favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

A poll taken September 30, 2009 showed Castle leading Biden by 47% to 42%. The same poll showed Biden leading O'Donnell 49% to 40%. Castle leads Biden in aggregate polling to date.

Barack Obama won Delaware with 62% of the vote in 2008.

The seat will be up for election again in 2014 for a full six-year term.

Roland Burris of Illinois

Main article: United States Senate elections in Illinois, 2010

Former Democratic Illinois Attorney General Roland Burris was appointed by Democratic then-Governor Rod Blagojevich, on December 30, 2008, to fill the Senate seat Barack Obama vacated when he resigned to become President. On July 10, 2009, Burris announced that he will not seek election to a full term in 2010.

Democratic Illinois Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias officially announced his campaign for U.S. Senate on July 26, 2009. Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson, a former Blagojevich spokesperson, announced her candidacy on August 10, 2009. David H. Hoffman, who was recently the inspector general for the City of Chicago, announced his candidacy on August 26, 2009. Illinois has a February primary. Giannoulias campaigned more aggressively prior to his official announcement than others have done, and he has raised $1.8 million. AKPD, the media firm where David Axelrod was a partner, is doing Hoffman's media work. Attorney Jacob Meister, Corey Dabney of Aurora, Robert Marshall, Greenville city councilman Willie "Will" Boyd, Jr. filed petitions to run as well.

The following Republicans filed nominating petitions with the Illinois State Board of Elections: John Arrington, formerly a Harvey alderman, Congressman Mark Kirk, former judge Don Lowery of Golconda, Andy Martin, Springfield academic Kathleen Thomas, Patrick Hughes, Robert Zadek of Rockford and Tom Kuna of Jerseyville.

Republican Congressman Mark Kirk (IL-10) announced his decision to run for the seat on July 20, 2009, His decision followed the announcements by Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Illinois Republican Party Chairman Andrew McKenna that neither of them would run.

LeAlan Jones, community activist and creator of Ghetto Life 101, filed his nominating petitions with the Illinois State Board of Elections and is running unopposed in the Green Party primary.

The Libertarian Party has selected Michael Labno as its candidate. To qualify for the ballot Labno's campaign will have to gather 25,000 valid signatures by June 21, 2010.

Eric Wallace had been preparing to run in the Republican primary, but did not file nominating petitions. He has floated the possibility of challenging Kirk as an "independent". Illinois law provides the same filing deadline for independent candidates as for major party candidates. However, new political parties have a later filing date, as Labno will have to do if he is to appear on the ballot.

Barack Obama won Illinois with 62% of the vote in the presidential election of 2008.

Paul Kirk of Massachusetts

Main article: United States Senate special election in Massachusetts, 2010

A special election will be held Jan. 19, 2010, and Paul Kirk is not running.

Byron Dorgan of North Dakota

Main article: United States Senate election in North Dakota, 2010

Senator Byron Dorgan of North Dakota announced on January 5, 2010 that he will not seek re-election. No Democrat has formally announced a run, but former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, who ran unsuccessfully for Governor in 2000, may be a candidate [5]. On the Republican side, North Dakota Governor John Hoeven is expected to seek the seat. Republican Duane Sand announced his bid before Dorgan's announcement.

Retiring Republican Senators (6 seats)

George LeMieux of Florida

Main article: United States Senate election in Florida, 2010

Freshman Republican Senator Mel Martinez was elected in a very close race against Democrat Betty Castor in 2004 with just 49% of the vote. Martinez is a former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the George W. Bush Administration. Martinez announced on December 2, 2008, that he would not seek a second term in the U.S. Senate, and in an unanticipated move, he announced on August 7, 2009, that he would be resigning from the Senate effective upon the naming of a successor. On September 10, 2009, George LeMieux was sworn in to serve the remainder of Martinez's Senate term.

Incumbent Republican Governor Charlie Crist announced his candidacy and is considered to be the favorite in the race. Crist currently has high approval ratings in the state among Republicans and Democrats and would be considered a formidable candidate. Former Republican Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives Marco Rubio is running and positioning himself as a more conservative candidate than Crist. Former New Hampshire U.S. Senator Bob Smith is also a declared candidate. U.S. Congressman Vern Buchanan, who represents Florida's 13th congressional district, former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives Allan Bense, and State House Majority Leader Adam Hasner, are also potential Republican candidates. Other, lesser-known candidates for the Republican nomination include United States Marine Corps veteran Bob Coggins, attorney Linda Vasquez Littlefield, pastor and educational consultant Gwyn McClellan, attorney Belinda Noah, restaurant owner Shawn M. Teeters, physician and 2008 congressional candidate Marion Thorpe, and real estate broker Tom Walsh.

Democratic U.S. Representative Kendrick Meek, who represents Florida's 17th congressional district, North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns, Marine Corps veteran George Lovenguth, pastor Tyrone Brown, and Key West resident "Trinidad Joe" Allen have all announced their candidacies for the seat. Rep. Corrine Brown was considered a potential candidate but decided to instead run for reelection. State Senator Dan Gelber had formed an exploratory committee, but ultimately decided not to run in the interest of political unity; he later announced that he would run for Florida Attorney General. Rep. Ron Klein also expressed interest in the race only to opt not to run.

Marshall DeRosa is the Constitution Party Nominee. Alexander Snitker is the Libertarian Party Nominee.

In addition to the above candidates Piotr Blass and Dave Roberts have filed as independent candidates, while Bobby Bean, Bernard "Bernie" DeCastr, and Todd Oifer will be listed as No Party Affiliation

Sam Brownback of Kansas

Main article: United States Senate election in Kansas, 2010

Former 2008 Republican presidential candidate and two-term incumbent Sen. Sam Brownback has stated that he will not run for reelection in 2010 because of self-imposed term limits.

On the Republican side, U.S. Representative Jerry Moran of Kansas's 1st congressional district has filed papers with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) to run for the U.S. Senate seat. Another Republican U.S. Representative, Todd Tiahrt of Kansas's 4th congressional district, has also announced his candidacy for the seat, setting up what is expected to be a bruising GOP primary.

Democratic retired advertising executive Charles Schollenberger plans to wage a grassroots campaign for the Democratic nomination.

Former Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who was quite popular in Kansas, was seen as a potential candidate with name recognition because of term limits preventing her from seeking another term as Governor. Instead, Sebelius accepted the nomination by President Barack Obama to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, laying to rest the possibility that she will run for the U.S. Senate.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Kansas with 56.50% of the vote in 2008.

Jim Bunning of Kentucky

Main article: United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2010

Baseball Hall of Famer and two-term Republican incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning was narrowly reelected by 51% to 49% in 2004 against his Democratic opponent, then-state Senator Daniel Mongiardo, after several of Bunning's controversial actions made the race close. Bunning had intended to run for reelection, but the Republican Party had long been lukewarm to his relatively weak candidacy. On July 27, 2009, Bunning announced that he would retire rather than seek a third term. Bunning has continued to make controversial comments in 2009, such as predicting that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg would be dead in nine months. Secretary of State Trey Grayson and eye surgeon Rand Paul, son of U.S. Representative and 2008 presidential candidate Ron Paul, have said they would be interested in running if Bunning decided to retire. Paul formed an exploratory committee, then announced that he would seek the Senate seat, and has raised over one million dollars.

Two Democrats, both of whom have won statewide elections, have announced their candidacies. Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo, a practicing surgeon, announced in January 2009 that he would run for the seat and received the endorsement of Democratic Governor Steve Beshear. In April, Attorney General Jack Conway announced that he would enter the race, with the support of Kentucky's Democratic Congressmen, Ben Chandler and John Yarmuth, as well as state Auditor Crit Luallen and state House Speaker Greg Stumbo. Former U.S. Customs Agent Darlene Fitzgerald Price has also announced her candidacy.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Kentucky with 57% of the vote in 2008.

Kit Bond of Missouri

Main article: United States Senate election in Missouri, 2010

Four-term incumbent Republican Senator Kit Bond was reelected with 56% of the vote in 2004. He will be 71 years old in 2010. He has announced that he will not seek reelection.

Republican U.S. Representative Roy Blunt, who represents Missouri's 7th congressional district (Southwest Missouri), has announced his candidacy. Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who sought but narrowly lost the Republican gubernatorial nomination in August 2008 to Kenny Hulshof, is also considering a run for the Republican nomination. Former U.S. Senator Jim Talent, who was narrowly unseated in 2006 by Democrat Claire McCaskill, has announced that he will not run.

The current Progressive Party of Missouri has selected Midge Potts as their candidate.

On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (daughter of former U.S. Senator Jean Carnahan and former Governor Mel Carnahan) entered the race on February 3, 2009, and is widely considered the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. In 2008, Carnahan won her second term as Secretary of State with near 1.7 million votes, the most votes ever cast for a single candidate in Missouri state history, and winning all but 4 of Missouri's 114 counties.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain narrowly defeated Barack Obama 49.43% to 49.29% in Missouri in 2008.

Judd Gregg of New Hampshire

Main article: United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2010

Three-term Republican incumbent U.S. Senator Judd Gregg was reelected in 2004 with 66% of the vote. Gregg had originally announced his intention to run for a fourth term, but was nominated to the position of United States Secretary of Commerce by President Barack Obama in early February 2009. However, Gregg withdrew his nomination on February 12, 2009, citing "irresolvable conflicts" over policy related to the Commerce Department. Gregg has stated he will not run again.

Democratic U.S. Representative Paul Hodes is running for this seat. The state's other U.S. Representative, Carol Shea-Porter, also a Democrat, announced on Monday March 16, 2009, that she would not run for the seat. Her decision averted a primary battle and cleared the way for Hodes.

On the Republican side, former U.S. Senator John Sununu, who was ousted in 2008 by former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen, was thought to be a potential candidate, but announced on July 1, 2009 that he would not seek the seat. On July 7, 2009, state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte announced that she was seriously considering running, and on July 20, she filed paperwork to form an exploratory committee. Businessman Bill Binnie and Jim Bender, and 1996 gubernatorial nominee and attorney Ovide Lamontagne are challenging Ayotte in the Republican primary.

The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire has nominated self employed realtor and perennial candidate Kenneth Blevens.

George Voinovich of Ohio

Main article: United States Senate election in Ohio, 2010

Two-term Republican incumbent George Voinovich was reelected with 64% of the vote in 2004. Voinovich, a former Mayor of Cleveland, Lieutenant Governor and Governor of Ohio, announced that he was going to retire rather than seek reelection to a third term in 2010, when he will be 74 years old.

On the Republican side, former U.S. Representative, U.S. Trade Representative and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Rob Portman announced his candidacy and appears to be the consensus choice among establishment Republicans Tom Ganley is running.

On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner and Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher, have announced their candidacies. U.S. Representative Marcy Kaptur of Ohio's 9th congressional district is also a possible candidate.

There are also three independent candidates who have announced that they will run: Eric Deaton, Eric Gregory, and Adam Shaffer.

Barack Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 51.4% to 46.8%.

Democratic incumbents (14 seats)

Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas

Main article: United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2010

Two term Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln was reelected with 56% of the vote in 2004. Lincoln will seek reelection and has already held a major fundraiser with Vice President Joe Biden.

In the Democratic primary, Lincoln faces one announced opponent in Drew Pritt, Director of Equality Arkansas and local businessman. Pritt is openly gay and ran as a Democrat for Arkansas Lt. Governor in 2006, becoming the first openly gay individual to run statewide.

On the Republican side, state senators Kim Hendren and Gilbert Baker; as well as retired US Army colonel Conrad Reynolds; Little Rock Businessman Curtis Coleman, real estate investment firm owner Fred Ramey, Harvard alumnus Tom Cotton; and Tom Cox, founder of the state branch of the Tea Party movement, will contest the primary, vying for the right to challenge Lincoln in the general.

Former Green Beret Trevor Drown has announced his candidacy as an independent and Greenland Mayor John Gray is seeking the Green Party nomination.

Lincoln is viewed as vulnerable with low approval ratings and has come out against cap and trade and the public option. Her opposition to the Stupak amendment has drawn criticism from many Conservative Democrats who supported her previous election bid.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Arkansas with 59% of the vote in 2008.

Barbara Boxer of California

Main article: United States Senate election in California, 2010

Three-term Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer was reelected with 58% of the vote in 2004. In February 2007, she announced that she would seek a fourth term in 2010, when she will be 70 years old.

On the Republican side, state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore of California's 70th State Assembly district has announced his candidacy. Telecommunications sales executive Al Ramirez announced the formation of an exploratory committee to test the waters starting in November 2008 and officially launched his campaign to challenge Boxer on October 28, 2009 at the National Republican Senatorial Committee Headquarters. Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina announced on August 18, 2009 that she had begun the "formal process" of exploring a challenge for the seat. On January 13, 2010, current law professor and former US Congressman Tom Campbell, who had earlier declared himself a candidate for the state's governorship, announced he would seek the Senate seat instead.

Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has ruled out a run for U.S. Senate when his term as Governor expires.

Donald J. "Don" Grundmann has filed paperwork for the American Independent nomination. Jerry L. Carroll has filed as an Independent.

Barack Obama won California with 61% of the vote in 2008.

Michael Bennet of Colorado

Main article: United States Senate election in Colorado, 2010

Following the resignation of first term Democratic Senator Ken Salazar to become President Barack Obama's Secretary of the Interior, Democratic Governor Bill Ritter selected Michael Bennet, the former Superintendent of Denver Public Schools, to fill Salazar's seat for the remainder of his term. Bennet has stated that he will run for a full term in 2010.

Former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives Andrew Romanoff has indicated that he will challenge Bennet in the Democratic primary, creating an exploratory committee in September 2009.

On the Republican side, Former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck,, former state Senator Tom Weins , and businessman Cleve Tidwell have announced their candidacies. In addition, radio talk-show host Dan Caplis is considered a potential candidate.

Barack Obama won Colorado with 54% of the vote in 2008.

Daniel Inouye of Hawaii

Main article: United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2010

Eight-term incumbent Senator Daniel Inouye was reelected with 76% of the vote in 2004 and has announced that he will seek another term. He will be 86 years old in 2010.

One potential challenger is incumbent Republican Governor Linda Lingle who had a 53% approval rating as of December 2008.

Barack Obama won Hawaii with 72% of the vote in 2008.

Evan Bayh of Indiana

Main article: United States Senate election in Indiana, 2010

Two-term incumbent and former two-term Governor Evan Bayh was reelected with 62% of the vote in 2004.

NRSCC chairman and Texas Senator John Cornyn said he does not expect the Republicans to fundraise. The declared Republican candidates are former Congressman John Hostettler, state Senator Marlin Stutzman, Carmel business owner Richard Behney, and Don Bates, Jr., a branch manager for Wachovia Securities. Tax attorney Dan Dumezich is also considering a run, as is Grant County Commissioner Mark Bardsley.

Barack Obama narrowly won Indiana with 50% of the vote in 2008.

Barbara Mikulski of Maryland

Main article: United States Senate election in Maryland, 2010

Four-term incumbent Sen. Barbara Mikulski was reelected with 65% of the vote in 2004.

With the popular Mikulski running for re-election, few Republicans have announced their candidacies. Eric Wargotz, a physician currently serving as president of the Queen Anne's County Commission, has declared that he will run for the Republican nomination. Jim Rutledge III, an attorney from Jarrettsville, and Daniel McAndrew, an engineer from Forest Hill, are also seeking the Republican nomination.

Robert Brookman is listed on the ballot as Unaffiliated

Barack Obama won Maryland with 62% of the vote in 2008.

Harry Reid of Nevada

Main article: United States Senate election in Nevada, 2010

Four-term incumbent and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was reelected with 61% of the vote in 2004. He will seek a fifth term in 2010, when he will be 71 years old. Reid is considered one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in the 2010 Senate elections.

Dr. Robin L. Titus, a prominent physician from Wellington who has served as Lyon County's health officer since 1989, has declared her candidacy as a Republican. Attorney Danny Tarkanian of Las Vegas (the son of former UNLV basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian), State Senator Mark Amodei of Carson City, former state Representative Sharron Angle, former Nevada Republican Party chairwomen Sue Lowden, attorney Chuck Kozak, conservative activists Mike Wiley and Bill Parson, banker John Chachas, former Nevada Board of Education member Greg Dagani, and blogger Mark Noonan are also competing for the Republican nomination.

Jerry Carter and Jeffrey Durbin are currently on the ballots as Independents.

Wil Stand is currently listed on the ballot as No Party Designation.

A poll on October 8, 2009 showed Tarkanian ahead of Reid by a margin of 48% to 43%. The same poll showed Lowden ahead of Reid by a margin of 49% to 39%.

Barack Obama won Nevada with 55% of the vote in 2008.

Kirsten Gillibrand of New York

Main article: United States Senate special election in New York, 2010

Incumbent Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed by Democratic Governor David Paterson to fill this seat on January 23, 2009, after former Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton resigned to take up her appointment as U.S. Secretary of State. Gillibrand will serve until the seat is filled in a 2010 special election. The winner of the 2010 election may then decide whether or not to run for a full term in 2012. Gillibrand has filed paperwork to run in the 2010 election.

One possible opponent to Gillibrand is Harold Ford Jr., the former Tennessee Congressman who was defeated in his run for U.S. Senate from Tennessee in 2006. He moved to New York shortly after that election; speculation of his candidacy was reported in the New York Times in January 2010.

On the Republican side, Congressman Peter T. King was thought to be interested in the seat, but announced that he would not challenge Gillibrand. Former Governor George Pataki has met with Republican officials about a possible campaign, but officials say it is unlikely he will run. Rumors circulated that Rudy Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City, would run. A recent poll had Giuliani leading Gillibrand 54% to 40%. But on December 22nd, 2009, Giuliani announced he would not challenge Gillibrand.

Barack Obama won New York with 63% of the vote in 2008.

Chuck Schumer of New York

Main article: United States Senate election in New York, 2010

Two-term incumbent Democrat Chuck Schumer, the former chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) was reelected with 71% of the vote in 2004. He is unlikely to face strong competition in 2010, when he will be 60 years old.

Barack Obama won New York with 63% of the vote in 2008.

Ron Wyden of Oregon

Main article: United States Senate election in Oregon, 2010

Two-term incumbent Sen. Ron Wyden (D) was reelected with 64% of the vote in 2004. He will be 61 years old in 2010.

Fitness instructor, machinist and perennial candidate Pavel Goberman has announced his candidacy as a Democrat.

Retired Utilityman Dennis Hall has announced his candidacy as a Republican.

Barack Obama won Oregon with 57% of the vote in 2008.

Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania

Main article: United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2010

Five-term incumbent Arlen Specter was reelected as a Republican by a 53% to 42% margin in 2004. On April 28, 2009, Specter announced he was leaving the Republican Party and would seek a sixth term in 2010 as a Democrat. He will be 80 years old in 2010.

Based on polling, the 2004 primary results and a smaller, more conservative Pennsylvania Republican electorate, Specter judged that he would lose the Republican primary, and since Pennsylvania law would bar him from running as an independent under such circumstances, he decided to switch parties. As a long-standing moderate, Specter has had tensions with the conservative base of the GOP dating back to 1987 when he played a key role in derailing President Ronald Reagan's nomination of Robert Bork to the U.S. Supreme Court. Recently, Specter had further antagonized the GOP base in Pennsylvania by voting in favor of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 otherwise known as the economic stimulus bill. In return for joining the Democratic Party, President Barack Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have all discouraged candidates from challenging Specter in the Democratic primary.

Retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral and current U.S. Representative Joe Sestak (PA-7) announced on August 4, 2009 that he would challenge Specter for the nomination despite the support for Specter amongst the Democratic leadership. State Representative Bill Kortz had announced his candidacy prior to Specter's switch, but has not withdrawn. Retired Pennsylvania Commonwealth Court judge Doris Smith-Ribner entered the race in October 2009. Nate Silver has made the point that if Specter follows the average pattern for party switchers, he should vote with the Democrats as much as Sestak, who is not particularly liberal. Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo analyzed Specter's performance in his first week as a Democrat and observed that Specter seems to have hurt himself among Democratic activists and interests groups for no particular reason besides "cockiness"

Former U.S. Representative and former President of the Club for Growth Pat Toomey, who came within 1.7% of defeating Specter in the 2004 GOP primary, has announced that he will run for the Republican nomination. Mitt Romney has announced his support for Toomey Other Republican candidates include businessman Larry Murphy, who challenged Specter in the 1998 primary, 1994 and 1998 Constitution Party gubernatorial candidate Peg Luksik, and Retired Federal Air Marshal Robert Townsend. Former Republican Governor and former Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge has announced that he will not run.

Mike Yilit is seeking the nomination of the Independent American Party.

Barack Obama won Pennsylvania with 55% of the vote in 2008.

Patrick Leahy of Vermont

Main article: United States Senate election in Vermont, 2010

Six-term incumbent Democrat Patrick Leahy was reelected with 71% of the vote in 2004. Leahy will run for reelection.

Leahy faces a primary challenger in the form of Daniel Freilich; currently a Captain in the United States Naval Reserve and a physician specalizing in internal medicine.

Cannabis legal reform activist and perennial candidate Cris Ericson has announced her candidacy as an independent.

John A. LaPierre has also announced his candidacy as an independent. Len Britton has announced his candidacy as a Republican. Barack Obama won Vermont with 68% of the vote in 2008.

Patty Murray of Washington

Main article: United States Senate election in Washington, 2010

Three-term incumbent Democrat Patty Murray was reelected with 55% of the vote in 2004. She will be 60 years old in 2010. She has not announced whether she will seek reelection, although she has begun to raise money for a potential campaign.

So far the announced Republican candidates are Army Vet Wayne Glover , 2000 Congressional Candidate Dr. Sean Salazar U.S. Senate Candidate 2010, Washington State , electrical engineering instructor Scott Johnson , electrician and former US Marine Rod Rieger , and energy trader and real estate broker Craig Williams . Motivational speaker Chris Widener, also a Republican, has set up an exploratory committee for a possible candidacy Former pro football player Clint Didier has also set up an exploratory committee for a possible candidacy, but has not yet indicated a party affiliation .

America's Third Party founder, David Jon Sponheim, has set up an exploratory committee for a possible candidacy and has run a nightly Video Chat show promoting his political ambitions .

Barack Obama won Washington with 58% of the vote in 2008.

Russ Feingold of Wisconsin

Main article: United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2010

Three-term incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold was reelected with 55% of the vote in 2004.

Feingold has announced his campaign staff for reelection and is expected to announce his formal election intentions soon. He is being challenged by Republican businessman Dave Westlake of Watertown. Constitution Party candidate Rob Taylor is also running.

Barack Obama won Wisconsin with 56% of the vote in 2008.

Republican incumbents (12 seats)

Richard Shelby of Alabama

Main article: United States Senate election in Alabama, 2010

Four-term incumbent Republican Richard Shelby, a former Democrat who switched parties in 1994 when Republicans took control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, was reelected with 68% of the vote in 2004. Shelby's 2010 campaign committee had over $13 million on hand as of September 30, 2008, and will stand for reelection in 2010.

John McCain won Alabama with 61% of the vote in 2008.

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

Main article: United States Senate election in Alaska, 2010

Incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski, appointed in 2002, was reelected to a full term in 2004 with 48.6% of the vote.

Murkowski has announced that she will seek reelection and will have fundraising aid from former Governor Sarah Palin.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Alaska with 60% of the vote in 2008.

John McCain of Arizona

Main article: United States Senate election in Arizona, 2010

2008 Republican presidential nominee and four-term incumbent John McCain was reelected with 77% of the vote in 2004. McCain has signaled his intention to run for a fifth term in 2010, when he will be 74 years old.

Two Republicans have announced that they will challenge McCain in the primary: U.S. Navy veteran and businessman Jim Deakin, and Chris Simcox, the founder of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps. Former U.S. Representative J.D. Hayworth may challenge McCain in the primary as well.

On the Democratic side, the only declared candidate so far is Rudy Garcia, the former mayor of Bell Gardens, California. Another Democrat, Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman, is thinking of running [6].

During his presidential campaign, McCain won Arizona with 54% of the vote.

Johnny Isakson of Georgia

Main article: United States Senate election in Georgia, 2010

Freshman Republican Johnny Isakson was elected with 58% of the vote in 2004. Isakson has announced that he will run for reelection.

Republican Congressman Paul Broun may challenge Isakson in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, RJ Hadley, the chief of staff to the Rockdale County Commission, has indicated that he will seek the Democratic nomination.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Georgia with 52% of the vote in 2008.

Mike Crapo of Idaho

Main article: United States Senate election in Idaho, 2010

Two-term Republican incumbent Mike Crapo was reelected against only token write-in opposition with 99% of the vote in 2004 after Idaho Democrats failed to produce a candidate before the filing deadline.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Idaho with 61% of the vote in 2008.

Chuck Grassley of Iowa

Main article: United States Senate election in Iowa, 2010

Five-term Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley was reelected with 70% of the vote in 2004. Grassley will run for reelection. Conservative Republicans suggest Grassley may face a primary challenge due to his lack of support for their issues. Among those is conservative activist Bill Salier, who said "Grassley was the dominant force and had an enormous amount of loyalty. That has so eroded out from underneath him" during an interview on WHO-AM radio.

Lawyer Roxanne Conlin, former state legislators Bob Krause, and Tom Fiegen are running for the Democratic nomination. Krause has said that Grassley's more than half-century in public office is too long. "As a good farmer, Sen. Grassley must recognize that 51 years, or 58 years at the end of his term, is a long time to go without rotating crops," Krause told about 50 supporters in Des Moines. Krause cited Grassley's support in 1999 for legislation that allowed banks and insurance companies to begin offering other investment products. "Please remember that Farmer Grassley was one that opened the barn door and let the cow out at AIG," Krause said.

Barack Obama won Iowa with 54% of the vote in 2008.

David Vitter of Louisiana

Main article: United States Senate election in Louisiana, 2010

Freshman Republican David Vitter was elected with 51% of the vote in 2004. This was actually an impressive victory considering Louisiana's election process in 2004 was an "open primary" where candidates of all parties and independents run together in the same election. In receiving 51% of the vote Vitter won the election outright without the need for a run-off election. Congressman Chris John, a Democrat, finished second to Vitter with only 29% of the vote. Five other candidates completed the field receiving 20% combined.

Vitter has announced that he will seek reelection, though his reelection bid may become complicated by a prostitution scandal that was revealed in 2007.

Republican Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is a potential challenger to Vitter in the Republican primary, as is pornographic actress Stormy Daniels.

Democratic United States Congressman Charles Melancon (LA-03) announced on August 27, 2009 that he would seek the Democratic nomination for the seat.

Libertarian from Mandeville Anthony "Tony G" Gentile announced on June 16, 2009 that he would seek the Libertarian nomination for the seat. Gentile is a former candidate for Governor in 2007 and U.S. House District 1 in 2008.

Retired Lieutenant General Russel L. Honoré is strongly considering running in 2010 as a Republican, with one source saying that the ex-United States Army commander was "more than 50% sure that he will run."

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Louisiana with 59% of the vote in 2008.

Richard Burr of North Carolina

Main article: United States Senate election in North Carolina, 2010

Freshman Republican Richard Burr was elected with 52% of the vote in 2004. Burr is considered a potentially vulnerable incumbent due to his poor approval ratings (currently in the mid-30 percent range) and low profile statewide.

Several prominent North Carolina Democrats have declined to challenge Burr, most notably North Carolina Attorney General Roy A. Cooper. Army veteran and frequent candidate John Hendrix, attorney Kenneth Lewis, former state Senator Cal Cunningham and North Carolina Secretary of State Elaine Marshall are running for the Democratic nomination. Dr. Mike Beitler is seeking the nomination of the Libertarian Party.

Barack Obama narrowly won North Carolina with 50% of the vote in 2008.

Tom Coburn of Oklahoma

Main article: United States Senate election in Oklahoma, 2010

Freshman Republican Tom Coburn was elected with 53% of the vote in 2004. Coburn raised less than $20,000 in the fourth quarter of 2008 and reports less than $55,000 "cash on hand." Coburn announced on June 1 that he would be running for a second, and final term.

Former Republican Party Activist Stephen Wallace is challenging Coburn as an Independent.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Oklahoma with 66% of the vote in 2008.

Jim DeMint of South Carolina

Main article: United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2010

Freshman Republican Jim DeMint was elected with 54% of the vote in 2004. DeMint has raised $2.2 million for his intended reelection bid.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won South Carolina with 54% of the vote in 2008.

John Thune of South Dakota

Main article: United States Senate election in South Dakota, 2010

Freshman Republican John Thune was elected with 51% of the vote in 2004. Thune will likely run for a second term in 2010.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won South Dakota with 53% of the vote in 2008.

Bob Bennett of Utah

Main article: United States Senate election in Utah, 2010

Three-term Republican Bob Bennett was reelected with 69% of the vote in 2004. Bennett intends to run for reelection. Bennett was rated one of the ten most liberal Republicans in the Senate, Top 10 Senate RINOs by the conservative magazine Human Events. In May 2009, Bennett released an early advertisement, in which former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney expresses his support for Bennett, to discourage a primary challenge.

Bennett will face competition from Constitutional attorney Mike Lee, Conservative businesswoman Cherilyn Eagar as well as James Russell Williams, and Tim Bridgwater.

Bennett may also face a competitive primary from former Juab County prosecutor David Leavitt, an undeclared Republican candidate.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Utah with 63% of the vote in 2008.

Senate contests in 2010

Party column: R is Republican, D is Democrat. Status column: + means running for (re)election, - means retiring; retirement is also indicated by shading the incumbent's name-box.

State	Incumbent	Party	Status	Other candidates	Last election results
AL	Richard Shelby	R	+		Richard Shelby (R) 67.55% Wayne Sowell (D) 32.35%
AK	Lisa Murkowski	R	+		Lisa Murkowski (R) 48.58% Tony Knowles (D) 45.55% Marc Millican (I) 2.88% Jerry Sanders (AKI) 1.23% Jim Sykes (G) 0.99%
AZ	John McCain	R	+	Jim Deakin (R) Chris Simcox (R) Rudy Garcia (D)	John McCain (R) 76.74% Stuart Starky (D) 20.62% Ernest Hancock (L) 2.64%
AR	Blanche Lincoln	D	+	Kim Hendren (R) Tom Cox (R) Chris Coleman (R) Fred Ramey (R) Conrad Reynolds (R) Gilbert Baker (R) Tom Cotton (R) John Gray (G)	Blanche Lincoln (D) 55.90% Jim Holt (R) 44.07%
CA	Barbara Boxer	D	+	Chuck DeVore (R) Al Ramirez (R) Carly Fiorina (R) Tom Campbell (R)	Barbara Boxer (D) 57.71% Bill Jones (R) 37.80% Marsha J. Feinland (P&F) 2.02% James P. Gray (L) 1.80%
CO	Michael Bennet	D	+	Ken Buck (R) Ryan Frazier (R) Cleve Tidwell (R)	Ken Salazar (D) 51.30% Pete Coors (R) 46.53%
CT	Chris Dodd	D	-	Merrick Alpert (D) Richard Blumenthal (D) Rob Simmons (R) Peter Schiff (R)	Chris Dodd (D) 66.35% Jack Orchulli (R) 32.13%
DE A	Ted Kaufman	D	-	Christine O'Donnell (R)	Joe Biden (D) 64.69% Christine O'Donnell (R) 35.31%
FL	George LeMieux	R	-	Bob Coggins (R) Charlie Crist (R) Linda Vasquez Littlefield (R) Gwendolyn McClellan (R) Marco Rubio (R) Bob Smith (R) Marion Thorpe (R) Tom Walsh (R) Joe Allen (D) Tyrone Brown (D) Kevin Burns (D) George Lovenguth (I) Kendrick Meek (D)	Mel Martinez (R) 49.43% Betty Castor (D) 48.32% Dennis F. Bradley (V) 2.24%
GA	Johnny Isakson	R	+		Johnny Isakson (R) 57.88% Denise Majette (D) 39.98% Allen Buckley (L) 2.14%
HI	Daniel Inouye	D	+		Daniel Inouye (D) 75.51% Campbell Cavasso (R) 20.99% Jim Brewer (I) 2.23% Lloyd Jeffrey Mallan (L) 1.27%
ID	Mike Crapo	R			Mike Crapo (R) 99.18% Write-ins 0.82%
IL	Roland Burris	D	-	Alexi Giannoulias (D) David H. Hoffman(D) Robert Marshall (D) Jacob Meister (D) Corey Dabney (D) Cheryle Jackson (D) Willie Boyd, Jr. (D) John Arrington (R) Mark Kirk (R) Don Lowery (R) Andy Martin (R) Kathleen Thomas (R) Patrick Hughes (R) Robert Zadek (R) Tom Kuna (R) LeAlan Jones (G) Michael Labno (L) Eric Wallace (ind?)	Barack Obama (D) 69.97% Alan Keyes (R) 27.05% Albert Franzen (I) 1.58% Jerry Kohn (L) 1.35%
IN	Evan Bayh	D		Marlin Stutzman (R) Don Bates, Jr. (R) John Hostettler	Evan Bayh (D) 61.65% Marvin Scott (R) 37.23% Albert Barger (L) 1.13%
IA	Chuck Grassley	R	+	Bob Krause (D) Tom Fiegen (D) Roxanne Conlin	Chuck Grassley (R) 70.18% Arthur Small (D) 27.88% Christy Ann Welty (L) 1.03%
KS	Sam Brownback	R	-	Jerry Moran (R) Todd Tiahrt (R)	Sam Brownback (R) 69.16% Lee Jones (D) 27.49% Steven Rosile (L) 1.93% George Cook (Ref) 1.42%
KY	Jim Bunning	R	-	Jack Conway (D) Daniel Mongiardo (D) Darlene Fitzgerald Price (D) Rand Paul (R)	Jim Bunning (R) 50.66% Daniel Mongiardo (D) 49.34%
LA	David Vitter	R	+	Charlie Melancon (D) Anthony "Tony G" Gentile (L)	David Vitter (R) 51.03% Chris John (D) 29.34% John Neely Kennedy (D) 14.92% Arthur Morrell (D) 2.56%
MD	Barbara Mikulski	D	+	Corrogan R. Vaughn (R) Eric Wargotz (R) Jim Rutledge (R)	Barbara Mikulski (D) 64.77% E. J. Pipkin (R) 33.71% Maria Allwine (G) 1.07%
MA B	Paul Kirk	D	- (note B)	Scott P. Brown (R) Martha Coakley (D)	Ted Kennedy (D) 69.5% Kenneth Chase (R) 30.5%
MO	Kit Bond	R	-	Roy Blunt (R) Robin Carnahan (D) Midge Potts	Kit Bond (R) 56.09% Nancy Farmer (D) 42.80% Other 1%
NV	Harry Reid	D	+	Robin L. Titus (R) Mark Amodei (R) John Chachas (R) Danny Tarkanian (R) Sharron Angle (R) Sue Lowden (R) Chuck Kozak (R) Mike Wiley (R) Bill Parson Greg Dagini Mark Noonan (R)	Harry Reid (D) 61.08% Richard Ziser (R) 35.14% None 1.60% Thomas L. Hurst (L) 1.18%
NH	Judd Gregg	R	-	Paul Hodes (D) Kelly Ayotte (R) Bill Binnie (R) Jim Bender (R) Ovide Lamontagne (R)	Judd Gregg (R) 66.18% Doris Haddock (D) 33.72%
NY	Chuck Schumer	D	+		Chuck Schumer (D) 71.16% Howard Mills (R) 24.24% Marilyn F. O'Grady (C) 3.30%
NY C	Kirsten Gillibrand	D	+		Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 67.00% John Spencer (R) 31.01% Howie Hawkins (G) 1.24%
NC	Richard Burr	R	+	John Hendrix (D) Kenneth Lewis (D) Elaine Marshall (D) Cal Cunningham (D)	Richard Burr (R) 51.60% Erskine Bowles (D) 47.02% Tom Bailey (L) 1.38%
ND	Byron Dorgan	D	-	Duane Sand (R)	Byron Dorgan (D) 68.28% Mike Liffrig (R) 31.72%
OH	George Voinovich	R	-	Rob Portman (R) Jennifer Brunner (D) Lee Fisher (D) Thomas Ganley (R)	George Voinovich (R) 63.85% Eric Fingerhut (D) 36.14%
OK	Tom Coburn	R	+		Tom Coburn (R) 52.77% Brad Carson (D) 41.24% Sheila Bilyeu (I) 5.99%
OR	Ron Wyden	D	+	Pavel Goberman (D)	Ron Wyden (D) 63.39% Al King (R) 31.75% Teresa Kean (G) 2.42% Dan Fitzgerald (L) 1.66%
PA	Arlen Specter	D	+	Bill Kortz (D) Joe Sestak (D) Doris Smith-Ribner (D) Peg Luksik (R) Larry Murphy (R) Pat Toomey (R) Robert Townsend (R)	Arlen Specter (R) 52.62% Joe Hoeffel (D) 41.99% James N. Clymer (C) 3.96% Betsy Summers (L) 1.43%
SC	Jim DeMint	R	+		Jim DeMint (R) 53.67% Inez Tenenbaum (D) 44.10%
SD	John Thune	R	+		John Thune (R) 50.58% Tom Daschle (D) 49.42%
UT	Bob Bennett	R	+		Bob Bennett (R) 68.73% Paul Van Dam (D) 28.40% Gary R. Van Horn (C) 1.90%
VT	Patrick Leahy	D	+	Cris Ericson (I)	Patrick Leahy (D) 70.63% Jack McMullen (R) 24.54% Cris Ericson (M) 2.11% Craig Hill (G) 1.30% Keith Stern (I) 1.07%
WA	Patty Murray	D		Wayne Glover (R) Sean Salazar (R) Scott Johnson (R) Rod Rieger (R) Craig Williams (R) Chris Widener (R) Clint Didier	Patty Murray (D) 54.98% George Nethercutt (R) 42.74% J. Mills (L) 1.21% Mark B. Wilson (G) 1.08%
WI	Russ Feingold	D	+	Rob Taylor (C) Dave Westlake (R)	Russ Feingold (D) 55.35% Tim Michels (R) 44.11%

A. Special election (to be held Nov, 2010) due to the resignation of Joe Biden to become Vice President of the United States. The term will end Jan, 2015.
B. Special election (to be held in January 19, 2010) due to the death of Ted Kennedy. The term will end Jan 3, 2013
C. Special election (to be held Nov, 2010) due to the resignation of Hillary Rodham Clinton to become United States Secretary of State. The term will end Jan 3, 2013.

See also

• United States House of Representatives elections, 2010
• United States gubernatorial elections, 2010
• fivethirtyeight.com/ — This site ranks the races in terms of volatility, i.e. Senators most likely to lose their election. Rankings are updated monthly.