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2022 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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2022 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections will be held November 8, 2022, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2020). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2022 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): slight advantage
  • Lean: clear advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain
District CPVI
[1] 		Incumbent Last result[2] Cook
September 1,
2022[3] 		IE
September 1,
2022[4] 		Sabato
September 7,
2022[5] 		Politico
August 24,
2022[6] 		RCP
September 1,
2022[7] 		Fox
August 22,
2022[8] 		DDHQ
September 7,
2022[9] 		538[a][b]
September 7,
2022[10] 		The Economist[c][d]
September 7,
2022[11]
Alaska at-large R+8 Mary Peltola (D) 51.5% D Tossup Tilt R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Solid R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean D
Arizona 1 R+2 David Schweikert (R) 52.2% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Arizona 2 R+6 Tom O'Halleran (D) 51.6% D Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip)
Arizona 4 D+2 Greg Stanton (D) 61.6% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Likely D Likely D
Arizona 6 R+3 Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
(retiring) 		55.1% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Arizona 8 R+10 Debbie Lesko (R) 59.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
California 3 R+4 New seat – Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
California 6 D+7 Ami Bera (D) 56.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Likely D
California 9 D+5 Josh Harder (D) 55.2% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
California 13 D+4 New seat – Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D
California 21 D+9 Jim Costa (D) 59.4% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Solid D Safe D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D
California 22 D+5 David Valadao (R) 50.4% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely R Tossup Tossup
California 23 R+8 Jay Obernolte (R) 56.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
California 25 D+6 Raul Ruiz (D) 60.3% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Likely D
California 26 D+8 Julia Brownley (D) 60.6% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Solid D Lean D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D
California 27 D+4 Mike Garcia (R) 50.0% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup
California 40 R+2 Young Kim (R) 50.6% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Solid R Likely R Solid R Likely R
California 41 R+3 Ken Calvert (R) 57.1% R Lean R Solid R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
California 45 D+2 Michelle Steel (R) 51.1% R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup
California 47 D+3 Katie Porter (D) 53.5% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
California 49 D+3 Mike Levin (D) 53.1% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D
Colorado 3 R+7 Lauren Boebert (R) 51.4% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Colorado 5 R+9 Doug Lamborn (R) 57.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Colorado 7 D+4 Ed Perlmutter (D)
(retiring) 		59.1% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D
Colorado 8 EVEN New seat – Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Connecticut 1 D+12 John B. Larson (D) 63.8% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Connecticut 2 D+3 Joe Courtney (D) 59.4% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D
Connecticut 3 D+7 Rosa DeLauro (D) 58.7% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Connecticut 4 D+13 Jim Himes (D) 62.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Connecticut 5 D+3 Jahana Hayes (D) 55.1% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D
Florida 2 R+8 Al Lawson (D) and
Neal Dunn (R) 		65.1% D; 97.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Florida 4 R+6 New seat – Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip)
Florida 7 R+5 Stephanie Murphy (D)
(retiring) 		55.3% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip)
Florida 9 D+8 Darren Soto (D) 56.0% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Florida 13 R+6 Charlie Crist (D)
(retiring) 		53.0% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip)
Florida 14 D+8 Kathy Castor (D) 60.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Florida 15 R+4 New seat – Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Florida 16 R+7 Vern Buchanan (R) 55.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Florida 22 D+7 Lois Frankel (D) 59.0% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Florida 23 D+5 Ted Deutch (D)
(retiring) 		58.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Safe D
Florida 27 EVEN María Elvira Salazar (R) 51.4% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Tossup
Florida 28 R+2 Carlos A. Giménez (R) 51.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Lean R
Georgia 2 D+3 Sanford Bishop (D) 59.1% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Georgia 6 R+11 New seat – Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip)
Georgia 12 R+8 Rick W. Allen (R) 58.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Illinois 6 D+3 Sean Casten (D) 52.8% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Illinois 8 D+6 Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) 73.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Illinois 11 D+5 Bill Foster (D) 63.3% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D
Illinois 13 D+3 New seat – Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Illinois 14 D+4 Lauren Underwood (D) 50.7% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Illinois 17 D+2 Cheri Bustos (D)
(retiring) 		52.0% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup
Indiana 1 D+3 Frank J. Mrvan (D) 56.6% D Tossup Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Likely D Lean D
Iowa 1 R+3 Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) 49.9% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Lean R
Iowa 2 R+4 Ashley Hinson (R) 51.2% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Lean R
Iowa 3 R+3 Cindy Axne (D) 48.9% D Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup
Kansas 3 R+1 Sharice Davids (D) 53.6% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup
Maine 2 R+6 Jared Golden (D) 53.0% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean D Likely R (flip)
Maryland 1 R+11 Andy Harris (R) 63.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Maryland 2 D+7 Dutch Ruppersberger (D) 67.7% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D
Maryland 6 D+2 David Trone (D) 58.8% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Tossup
Massachusetts 9 D+6 Bill Keating (D) 61.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D
Michigan 3 D+1 Peter Meijer (R)
(lost renomination) 		53.0% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
Michigan 4 R+5 Bill Huizenga (R) 59.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Michigan 7 R+2 Elissa Slotkin (D) 50.9% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Tossup
Michigan 8 R+1 Dan Kildee (D) 54.4% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D
Michigan 10 R+3 New seat – Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip)
Michigan 11 D+7 Haley Stevens (D) 50.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Minnesota 1 R+7 Brad Finstad (R) 51.0% R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Minnesota 2 D+1 Angie Craig (D) 48.2% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Likely D Lean D
Minnesota 3 D+8 Dean Phillips (D) 55.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Minnesota 8 R+8 Pete Stauber (R) 56.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Missouri 2 R+7 Ann Wagner (R) 51.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Montana 1 R+6 New seat – Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Nebraska 1 R+9 Mike Flood (R) 52.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R
Nebraska 2 EVEN Don Bacon (R) 50.8% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tossup
Nevada 1 D+3 Dina Titus (D) 61.8% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Likely D Likely D
Nevada 2 R+8 Mark Amodei (R) 56.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Nevada 3 D+1 Susie Lee (D) 48.8% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D Lean D
Nevada 4 D+3 Steven Horsford (D) 50.7% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Tossup Likely D Likely D Likely D
New Hampshire 1 EVEN Chris Pappas (D) 51.3% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D
New Hampshire 2 D+2 Annie Kuster (D) 53.9% D Tossup Likely D Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D Likely D Lean D
New Jersey 1 D+10 Donald Norcross (D) 62.5% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D
New Jersey 2 R+5 Jeff Van Drew (R) 51.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
New Jersey 3 D+5 Andy Kim (D) 53.2% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 5 D+4 Josh Gottheimer (D) 53.2% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D
New Jersey 7 R+1 Tom Malinowski (D) 50.6% D Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean D Lean R (flip) Tossup
New Jersey 11 D+6 Mikie Sherrill (D) 53.3% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D
New Mexico 1 D+5 Melanie Stansbury (D) 60.4% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D
New Mexico 2 D+1 Yvette Herrell (R) 53.7% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Likely R Tossup Tossup
New Mexico 3 D+4 Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) 58.7% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D
New York 1 R+3 Lee Zeldin (R)
(retiring) 		54.9% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Lean R Safe R Lean R Likely R Lean R Lean R
New York 2 R+3 Andrew Garbarino (R) 52.9% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Likely R
New York 3 D+2 Thomas Suozzi (D)
(retiring) 		56.0% D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D
New York 4 D+5 Kathleen Rice (D)
(retiring) 		56.1% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Tossup Solid D Lean D Likely D Likely D
New York 11 R+6 Nicole Malliotakis (R) 53.2% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
New York 17 D+3 Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 55.8% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Solid D Likely D Likely D
New York 18 D+1 Pat Ryan (D) 51.9% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup
New York 19 EVEN New Seat – Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip)
New York 20 D+7 Paul Tonko (D) 61.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D
New York 22 D+1 John Katko (R)
(retiring) 		53.1% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
New York 25 D+7 Joseph Morelle (D) 59.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Safe D
North Carolina 1 D+2 G. K. Butterfield (D)
(retiring) 		54.2% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Tossup Lean D Lean R (flip) Likely D Likely D
North Carolina 6 D+4 Kathy Manning (D) 62.3% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Likely D
North Carolina 7 R+8 David Rouzer (R) 60.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
North Carolina 9 R+6 Richard Hudson (R) 53.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
North Carolina 13 R+2 New seat – Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup Likely R Tossup Tossup
North Carolina 14 D+6 New seat – Solid D (flip) Solid D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip) Solid D (flip) Safe D (flip)
Ohio 1 D+2 Steve Chabot (R) 51.8% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean D (flip)
Ohio 7 R+7 Bob Gibbs (R)
(retiring) 		67.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Ohio 9 R+3 Marcy Kaptur (D) 63.1% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup
Ohio 10 R+4 Mike Turner (R) 58.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Ohio 13 R+1 Tim Ryan (D)
(retiring) 		52.5% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tossup
Ohio 15 R+6 Mike Carey (R) 58.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Oregon 4 D+4 Peter DeFazio (D)
(retiring) 		51.5% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D
Oregon 5 D+2 Kurt Schrader (D)
(lost renomination) 		51.9% D Tossup Tilt D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean D
Oregon 6 D+4 New seat – Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D
Pennsylvania 1 EVEN Brian Fitzpatrick (R) 56.6% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R Solid R Lean R
Pennsylvania 6 D+5 Chrissy Houlahan (D) 56.1% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Likely D
Pennsylvania 7 R+2 Susan Wild (D) 51.9% D Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup
Pennsylvania 8 R+4 Matt Cartwright (D) 51.8% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean R (flip) Lean D Tossup
Pennsylvania 10 R+5 Scott Perry (R) 53.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Lean R Likely R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Pennsylvania 12 D+8 Mike Doyle (D)
(retiring) 		69.3% D Likely D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Pennsylvania 17 EVEN Conor Lamb (D)
(retiring) 		51.1% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely R (flip) Lean D Tossup
Rhode Island 2 D+4 James Langevin (D)
(retiring) 		58.2% D Tossup Lean D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D
South Carolina 1 R+7 Nancy Mace (R) 50.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Tennessee 5 R+9 Jim Cooper (D)
(retiring) 		100.0% D Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip)
Texas 15 R+1 New seat – Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Texas 23 R+5 Tony Gonzales (R) 50.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Texas 28 D+3 Henry Cuellar (D) 58.3% D Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D
Texas 34 D+9 Vicente Gonzalez (D) and
Mayra Flores (R) 		50.5% D; 50.9% R Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Virginia 1 R+6 Rob Wittman (R) 58.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Virginia 2 R+2 Elaine Luria (D) 51.6% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R (flip) Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup
Virginia 5 R+7 Bob Good (R) 52.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Virginia 7 D+1 Abigail Spanberger (D) 50.8% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Lean D Tossup Lean D Likely D Likely D Likely D
Virginia 10 D+6 Jennifer Wexton (D) 56.5% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D
Washington 3 R+5 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
(lost renomination) 		56.4% R Lean R Solid R Likely R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Solid R Safe R
Washington 4 R+11 Dan Newhouse (R) 66.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Washington 5 R+8 Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) 61.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Safe R
Washington 6 D+6 Derek Kilmer (D) 59.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Solid D Solid D Safe D
Washington 8 D+1 Kim Schrier (D) 51.7% D Tossup Tossup Lean D Tossup Tossup Tossup Likely D Likely D Lean D
Wisconsin 1 R+3 Bryan Steil (R) 59.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Solid R Solid R Likely R
Wisconsin 3 R+4 Ron Kind (D)
(retiring) 		51.3% D Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip) Likely R (flip) Solid R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip)
Overall D – 190
R – 213
32 tossups 		D – 204
R – 211
20 tossups 		D – 194
R – 215
26 tossups 		D – 196
R – 212
27 tossups 		D – 183
R – 218
34 tossups 		D – 187
R – 220
28 tossups 		D – 199
R – 224
12 tossups 		D – 207
R – 218
10 tossups 		D – 204
R – 210
21 tossups
District CPVI Incumbent Previous result Cook IE Sabato Politico RCP Fox DDHQ 538 The Economist
  1. ^ FiveThirtyEight has three separate models for their House and Senate ratings: Lite (polling data only), Classic (polls, fundraising, and past voting patterns), and Deluxe (Classic alongside experts' ratings). This table uses the Deluxe model.
  2. ^ Category ranges:
    • Tossup: <60% both candidates
    • Lean: ≥60%
    • Likely: ≥75%
    • Solid: ≥95%
  3. ^ The Economist runs 10,000 simulations daily to determine their forecast ratings, which are based on statistical probability.
  4. ^ Category ranges:
    • Tossup ("Uncertain"): <65% both parties
    • Lean ("Likely"): 60-85%
    • Likely ("Very Likely"): 85-99%
    • Safe: ≥99%

Generic ballot polls

The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2022 House of Representatives elections.

Polling aggregates
Source of poll aggregation Date updated Dates polled Democratic Republican Lead
RealClearPolitics September 9, 2022 August 12 – September 6, 2022 44.8% 44.4% +0.4%
FiveThirtyEight September 7, 2022 June 16, 2021 – September 7, 2022 44.8% 43.8% +1.0%
Average 44.6% 44.1% +0.5%

Party listings

The campaign committees for the two parties (the DCCC and NRCC) publish their own lists of targeted seats.

Democratic-held seats

The NRCC is now targeting 75 Democratic held seats.[12] They released their initial list February 10, 2021[13] and added 10 seats to the initial list on May 4, 2021[14] and a further 13 seats November 3, 2021 after the favorable election night results. They added eight additional seats on March 30, 2022.[15] The first two lists were published before redistricting, however the 3rd list begins to incorporate redistricting impacts such as Colorado's 7th congressional district. Seats in bold were included in the DCCC's frontline seats in March 2021 or were added in January 2022.[16][17]

Republican target seats
  1. Arizona 1: Tom O'Halleran
  2. Arizona 4: Greg Stanton
  3. Arizona 6: Ann Kirkpatrick (retiring)
  4. California 7: Ami Bera
  5. California 9: Josh Harder
  6. California 20: Jim Costa
  7. California 26: Julia Brownley
  8. California 36: Raul Ruiz
  9. California 47: Katie Porter
  10. California 49: Mike Levin
  11. Colorado 7: Ed Perlmutter (retiring)
  12. Connecticut 2: Joe Courtney
  13. Connecticut 5: Jahana Hayes
  14. Florida 7: Stephanie Murphy (retiring)
  15. Florida 9: Darren Soto
  16. Florida 13: Charlie Crist (retiring)
  17. Florida 14: Kathy Castor
  18. Florida 22: Ted Deutch (retiring)
  19. Georgia 2: Sanford Bishop
  20. Georgia 6: Lucy McBath (running in Georgia's 7th congressional district)
  21. Georgia 7: Carolyn Bourdeaux (lost renomination)
  22. Illinois 3: Marie Newman (lost renomination)
  23. Illinois 6: Sean Casten
  24. Illinois 11: Bill Foster
  25. Illinois 14: Lauren Underwood
  26. Illinois 17: Cheri Bustos (retiring)
  27. Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
  28. Iowa 3: Cindy Axne
  29. Kansas 3: Sharice Davids
  30. Maine 2: Jared Golden
  31. Maryland 6: David Trone
  32. Michigan 7: Elissa Slotkin
  33. Michigan 8: Dan Kildee
  34. Michigan 11: Haley Stevens
  35. Minnesota 2: Angie Craig
  36. Minnesota 3: Dean Phillips
  37. Nevada 1: Dina Titus
  38. Nevada 3: Susie Lee
  39. Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
  40. New Hampshire 1: Chris Pappas
  41. New Hampshire 2: Annie Kuster
  42. New Jersey 3: Andy Kim
  43. New Jersey 5: Josh Gottheimer
  44. New Jersey 7: Tom Malinowski
  45. New Jersey 11: Mikie Sherrill
  46. New Mexico 1: Melanie Stansbury
  47. New Mexico 3: Teresa Leger Fernandez
  48. New York 3: Thomas Suozzi
  49. New York 4: Kathleen Rice (retiring)
  50. New York 18: Sean Patrick Maloney (running in New York's 17th congressional district)
  51. New York 20: Paul Tonko
  52. New York 25: Joe Morelle
  53. New York 26: Brian Higgins
  54. North Carolina 1: G.K. Butterfield (retiring)
  55. North Carolina 2: Deborah Ross
  56. North Carolina 6: Kathy Manning
  57. Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
  58. Ohio 13: Tim Ryan (retiring)
  59. Oregon 4: Peter DeFazio (retiring)
  60. Oregon 5: Kurt Schrader (lost renomination)
  61. Pennsylvania 4: Madeleine Dean
  62. Pennsylvania 6: Chrissy Houlahan
  63. Pennsylvania 7: Susan Wild
  64. Pennsylvania 8: Matt Cartwright
  65. Pennsylvania 17: Conor Lamb (retiring)
  66. Tennessee 5: Jim Cooper (retiring)
  67. Texas 7: Lizzie Fletcher
  68. Texas 15: Vicente Gonzalez (running in Texas's 34th congressional district)
  69. Texas 28: Henry Cuellar
  70. Texas 32: Colin Allred
  71. Virginia 2: Elaine Luria
  72. Virginia 7: Abigail Spanberger
  73. Virginia 10: Jennifer Wexton
  74. Washington 8: Kim Schrier
  75. Wisconsin 3: Ron Kind (retiring)

Republican-held seats

On April 6, 2021, the DCCC released their list of target seats, including open and Republican-held seats.[18] This list was published before redistricting. Several seats were added in January 2022.[19][20]

References

  1. ^ "2022 Cook PVI: District Map and List". Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 7, 2022.
  2. ^ "House election results 2020". Cnn.com. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
  3. ^ "2022 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 25, 2021.
  4. ^ "2022 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  5. ^ "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 14, 2021. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
  6. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. Retrieved April 19, 2022.
  7. ^ "Battle for the House 2022". RCP. June 9, 2022.
  8. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  9. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  10. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  11. ^ "The Economist's 2022 House forecasts". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  12. ^ "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 13 New Targets". November 3, 2021.
  13. ^ "NRCC Announces 47 Offensive Pick-Up Opportunities for 2022 Cycle". NRCC. February 10, 2021. Retrieved February 22, 2021.
  14. ^ "NRCC Expands Offensive Map, Announces 10 New Targets Following Reapportionment". nrcc.org. NRCC. May 4, 2021. Retrieved May 4, 2021.
  15. ^ "House GOP campaign arm adds new seats to target list". March 30, 2022.
  16. ^ "Democrats to devote resources to 7 more House lawmakers facing tough re-elections". DCCC. March 1, 2021. Retrieved March 5, 2021.
  17. ^ "DCCC expands list of vulnerable House Democrats". The Hill. January 27, 2022.
  18. ^ "DCCC Announces 2021-2022 Districts In Play". dccc.org. DCCC. April 6, 2021. Retrieved April 7, 2021.
  19. ^ "Democrats to devote resources to 7 more House lawmakers facing tough re-elections". nbcnews.com. NBC. January 27, 2022. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  20. ^ >"DCCC Announces Changes To 2022 House Battlefield". dccc.org. DCCC. January 27, 2022. Retrieved January 29, 2022.
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