2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

Republican presidential primaries, 2012

January 3, 2012, to present

Candidate Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Party Republican Republican Home state Massachusetts Georgia Delegate count 91* 32* States carried 4 1 Popular vote 1,121,497 838,715 Percentage 41.5% 31.1%   Candidate Ron Paul Rick Santorum Party Republican Republican Home state Texas Pennsylvania Delegate count 9* 4* States carried 0 4** Popular vote 307,866 431,819 Percentage 11.4% 15.9%

Orange ▇ denotes a state won by Mitt Romney. Purple ▇ denotes a state won by Newt Gingrich. Teal Green ▇ denotes a state won by Rick Santorum. Grey denotes a state that has not yet voted. Note that not all states are "winner-take-all." *Delegate counts vary among sources. The counts included here are pledged delegates or those who have committed to support a candidate only. For projected counts from different news sources see Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries **Missouri held a non-binding primary on February 7, which Santorum won, but its delegates will be allocated based on caucuses in March.

Previous Republican nominee before election John McCain Republican presidential candidate-elect TBD

The 2012 Republican presidential primaries are the selection processes in which voters of the Republican Party will choose their nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 presidential election. There are 2,286 delegates to be chosen. A candidate must accumulate 1,144 delegate votes at the national convention to win.

The primary contest began with a fairly wide field, and is the first presidential primary influenced by the Tea Party movement. This is the first presidential primary affected by a Supreme Court ruling that allowed unlimited fundraising for candidates through super PACs. Two candidates who ran in 2008, Congressman Ron Paul of Texas and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, are also running in 2012.

Romney took an early lead in polls with the support of much of the Republican voters. However, his lead over the Republican field has been precarious, owing to the entry of new candidates who drew considerable media attention between April and August 2011. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota received significant support in polls after winning the Ames Straw Poll, but she lost some of her momentum when Texas Governor Rick Perry was propelled by significant national Republican support to join the race in August 2011; he performed strongly in polls, immediately becoming a serious contender.

Following a series of poor performances in debates, Perry lost his momentum to Herman Cain. Cain's viability as a candidate was seriously jeopardized after allegations of a history of sexual harassment surfaced in the media, with his campaign being suspended on December 3, 2011, despite his unyielding denials of any misconduct. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who stressed the need to beat incumbent President Barack Obama and to avoid intra-party disputes, began making a comeback in November 2011 after his campaign nearly imploded in June 2011, both in polls and fundraising. Gingrich's popularity began to wane in mid-December under focused attacks by Romney.

Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania ran a one state campaign in Iowa, the first state to contest and won with a handful of votes over Mitt Romney. Michele Bachmann withdrew from the race the day after the Iowa caucus, having performed poorly in this contest. Former Ambassador and Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. of Utah also ran a one state campaign, but he couldn't copy Santorum's success and ended up third in New Hampshire. Both he and Rick Perry withdrew just before the voting day of the South Carolina primary. Romney was expected to virtually clinch the nomination with a win in South Carolina, but lost to Gingrich, who received a second surge after two strong debate performances, opening the race to a longer and more unpredictable campaign. After investing millions of dollars in attack ads against Gingrich, Mitt Romney proceeded to decisively win the Florida primary, a winner-take-all state, before winning the Nevada caucuses several days later with a narrow majority of the votes. However, the race shifted again on February 7, when Santorum swept the contests in Missouri (which did not allocate delegates), Minnesota and Colorado, making the case for himself as the new anti-Romney and disrupting Romney's narrative as the unstoppable frontrunner. On February 11, Romney was declared winner of the Maine caucuses, although a number of precincts had yet to vote; nevertheless, at the completion of the caucuses on February 18, Romney still had the most votes. After nine states have voted, the field has four remaining candidates and the race for the Republican presidential nomination appears to be far from settled.

Schedule and process

Background

Main article: United States presidential primary

In April 2008, the Standing Committee on Rules of the Republican National Committee recommended the adoption of the "Ohio Plan", that would, starting in 2012, divide the primary states into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states comprising fifty electoral votes would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.

The 2008 Republican National Convention did not approve the Ohio Plan. Instead, the Rules of the Republican Party adopted by the Convention provided that the timing of binding delegate selection contests would generally be subject to the same rules as the 2008 delegate selection contests. On August 6, 2010, the Republican National Committee (RNC) adopted new rules for the timing of elections, with 103 votes in favor out of 144. Under this plan, elections for delegates to the national convention were to be divided into three periods:

• February 1 – March 5, 2012: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina,
• March 6–31, 2012: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates,
• April 1, 2012, and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections.

Several states, most notably Florida, scheduled their contests earlier than prescribed. This pressured every traditional early state except Nevada to push back their contest into January. As a result of their violation of RNC rules, these states were penalized with a loss of half their delegates, including voting right for RNC delegates. Despite having early caucuses, Iowa, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri was not automatically penalized, because their contests do not bind national delegates until after the prescribed time period for the early voting states.

The total base number of delegates allocated to each of the 50 U.S. states is 10 at-large delegates, plus 3 delegates per congressional district. In addition, fixed numbers of at-large delegates are allocated to Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands under the party's delegate selection rules. Depending on the laws and party rules of each state, when voters cast ballots for a candidate in a presidential caucus or primary, they may be voting to actually award delegates bound to vote for a particular candidate at the state or national convention (binding primary or caucus), or they may simply be expressing an opinion that the state party is not bound to follow in selecting delegates to the national convention (non-binding primary or caucus).

States are awarded bonus delegates based on the following factors:

• Bonus delegates to each state that cast a majority of their Electoral College votes for the GOP candidate in the 2008 presidential election
• One bonus delegate for each GOP senator
• One bonus delegate to each state that has a GOP majority in their delegation to the House of Representatives
• One bonus delegate for each state that has a GOP governor
• Bonus delegates for majorities in one or all of the chambers in their state legislature.

The three Republican National Committee members from each state and territory are delegates unless the state was penalized for violating the RNC's scheduling rules. The individual states decide whether these RNC members are bound or unbound. 39 states and territories have chosen to make them unbound, resulting in 117 unbound superdelegates.

Primary schedule

Main article: United States presidential election, 2012 timeline

Republican primaries and caucuses calendar 2012

  January 2012 (4)

  February 2012 (7)

  March 2012 (23)

  April 2012 (9)

  May 2012 (7)

  June 2012 (6)

• Date: This table lists the date where it is decided which candidate that "carries" the state. In most races the delegates are allocated at the same date, but not all. As an example: Maine publish a nonbinding strawpoll on February 11. The winner of this strawpoll will "win" the state. But the caucuses started January 29 and continues to March 3. And no actual delegates will be allocated before May 6.
• Contest type: There are two types: caucus and primary, which are regulated in many different ways in the local states.
• Bound delegates: These pledged delegates are legally bound to vote for a candidate for at least the first ballot at the National Convention. All 3 types of delegates can be bound, depending on the local state rules.
• Unbound delegates: There are 117 RNC delegates that are free to vote for any candidate they like, and the candidates are free to woo them. Up to 340 AL and CD delegates are unbound (unpledged). They are elected at conventions through the land, and the candidates work to get as many of their supporters to join these convention through caucus and primaries in the respective states.
• Delegate allocation: There are three different ways, by winner-take-all, proportional or at convention. From state to state there are many different variations of these three methods. As an example: Many states have thresholds that candidates must meet to be given delegates proportional, these thresholds range from 10% to 25% percent of the votes. Other states that elect delegates proportionally have no such threshold. In general, the 2012 Republican primaries have more proportional allocation and less winner-take-all than the 2008 primaries.
• There are three types of delegates: 3 members of the Republican National Committee from each nonpenalized state (RNC), delegates elected At-large in the state (AL) and delegates elected in each congressional district (CD)

Date	Location	Contest Type	Unbound delegates	Bound delegates	Delegate allocation	1st	2nd	3rd
Jan 3	Iowa	Caucus (nonbinding)	28	0	Convention	Rick Santorum	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul
Jan 10	New Hampshire#	Primary (semi-closed)	0	12	Proportional	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Jon Huntsman
Jan 21	South Carolina#	Primary (open)	0	25	Winner-take-all	Newt Gingrich	Mitt Romney	Rick Santorum
Jan 31	Florida#	Primary (closed)	0	50	Winner-take-all	Mitt Romney	Newt Gingrich	Rick Santorum
Feb 4	Nevada	Caucus (binding)	0	28	Proportional	Mitt Romney	Newt Gingrich	Ron Paul
Feb 7	Colorado	Caucus (nonbinding)	36	0	Convention	Rick Santorum	Mitt Romney	Newt Gingrich
	Minnesota	Caucus (nonbinding)	40	0	Convention	Rick Santorum	Ron Paul	Mitt Romney
	Missouri	Primary (nonbinding)b	0	0	N/A	Rick Santorum	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul
Feb 11	Maine	Caucus (nonbinding)	24	0	Convention	Mitt Romney	Ron Paul	Rick Santorum
Feb 28	Arizona#	Primary (closed)	0	29	Winner-take-all
	Michigan#	Primary (open)c	0	30	Proportional (AL) Winner-take-all (CD)
Mar 3	Washington	Caucus	3	40	Convention
Mar 6	Alaska	Caucus	3	24	Proportional
	Georgia	Primary (open)	0	76	Proportional
	Idaho	Caucus (closed)	0	32	Proportionale
	Massachusetts	Primary (semi-closed)	3	38	Proportional
	North Dakota	Caucus	28	0	N/A
	Ohio	Primary (semi-closed)	3	63	Proportional (AL)e Winner-take-all (CD)
	Oklahoma	Primary (closed)	3	40	Proportionale
	Tennessee	Primary (open)	3	55	Proportionalf
	Vermont	Primary (open)	0	17	Proportional (AL)e Winner-take-all (CD)
	Virginia	Primary (open)	3	46	Proportional (AL)e Winner-take-all (CD)
Mar 7Mar. 6–10	Wyoming	Caucus	29	0	N/A
Mar 10	Kansas	Caucus	0	40	Proportional (AL) Winner-take-all (CD)
	U.S. Virgin Islands	Caucus	9	0	N/Ag
	Guam	Caucus	9	0	N/Ag
Mar 13	Alabama	Primary (open)	3	47	Proportionale
	American Samoa	Caucus	9	0	N/Aa
	Hawaii	Caucus	3	17	Proportional
	Mississippi	Primary (open)	3	37	Proportional
Mar 17	Missouri	Caucus	0	52	Conventiond
Mar 18	Puerto Rico	Primary (open)	3	20	Winner-take-all
Mar 20	Illinois	Primary (open)	69	0	N/A
Mar 24	Louisiana	Primary (closed)	21	25	Proportional (AL) Unbound (CD)
Apr 3	Maryland	Primary (closed)	0	37	Winner-take-all
	Texas (Likely delay)	Primary (open)	0	155	Proportional
	Washington, D.C.	Primary (closed)	3	16	Winner-take-all
	Wisconsin	Primary (open)	3	39	Winner-take-all
Apr 24	Connecticut	Primary (closed)	3	25	Proportional (AL)e Winner-take-all (CD)
	Delaware	Primary (closed)	0	17	Winner-take-all
	New York	Primary (closed)	3	92	Proportionale
	Pennsylvania	Primary (closed)	72	0	N/A
	Rhode Island	Primary (semi-closed)	3	16	Proportional
May 8	Indiana	Primary (open)	19	27	Unbound (AL) Winner-take-all (CD)
	North Carolina	Primary (semi-closed)	0	55	Proportional
	West Virginia	Primary (semi-closed)	3	28	Proportional
May 15	Nebraska	Primary (nonbinding)b	3	32	Conventiond
	Oregon	Primary (closed)	3	25	Proportional
May 22	Arkansas	Primary (open)	3	33	Proportionale
	Kentucky	Primary (closed)	3	42	Proportional
May 29	Texas (Tentative date)	Primary (open)	0	155	Proportional
Jun 5	California	Primary (closed)	3	169	Winner-take-all
	Montana	Primary (nonbinding)b	26	0	N/A
	New Jersey	Primary (semi-closed)	0	50	Winner-take-all
	New Mexico	Primary (closed)	3	20	Proportional
	South Dakota	Primary (closed)	3	25	Proportional
Jun 26	Utah	Primary (semi-closed)	0	40	Winner-take-all
Jul 31	Northern Mariana Is.	Caucus	9	0	N/A

Notes

^# The state is penalized for breaking RNC schedule guidelines. The penalty cuts the delegation number in half and removes voting privileges from the party leader delegates.
^a The state, district or territory convention can vote to bind some or all of the delegates.
^b This is simply a high-profile strawpoll. The real contest happens later.
^c Since Michigan does not register voters by party preference, there is no mechanism to ensure that only Republicans will participate.
^d The delegation will be elected on the floor of the state convention based on stated presidential preference.
^e If any candidate receives more than 50% of the votes it becomes a Winner-take-all contest.
^f If any candidate receives more than 66% of the votes it becomes a Winner-take-all contest.
^g Delegates are bound if they declare themselves for a candidate.

Convention schedule

During the process there will be held many different conventions across the nation. It is important to remember that the National Convention and the state and congressional district level conventions are not solely about electing a party candidate to run for president. But when it comes to the presidential primary the important conventions are those who elects delegates not already legally bound to a candidate by a primary or caucus.

• Iowa
  There is no formal system of allocating delegates to candidates in any step of the election process. At each meeting the participants decides what the best course of action is.
  None of the 28 delegates are legally bound to vote for a candidate.
  • 3 January: Precinct caucuses elect delegates to the county conventions.
  • 10 March: County conventions elect delegates to the state convention.
  • 16 June: State convention as a whole elects 13 National Convention delegates. Delegates from each of the four congressional district caucus separately to elect 3 National Convention delegates each.

• Colorado
  There is no formal system of allocating delegates to candidates in any step of the election process. At each meeting the participants decides what the best course of action is.
  None of the 36 delegates are legally bound to vote for a candidate.
  • 7 February: Precinct caucuses elect delegates to the congressional conventions.
  • 29 March - 13 April: Seven congressional conventions elects 3 National Convention delegates each and also elects delegates for the state convention.
  • 14 April: State convention elects 12 National Convention delegates.

• Minnesota
  There is no formal system of allocating delegates to candidates in any step of the election process. At each meeting the participants decides what the best course of action is.
  The state convention can vote to bind the 13 at-large delegates to a candidate. The 24 delegates elected at the CD conventions and the 3 automatic (RNC) delegates are not legally bound to vote for a candidate.
  • 7 February: Precinct caucuses elect delegates to the BPOU (basic political operating unit) conventions
  • 17 February - 31 March: BPOU conventions elect delegates to the state convention and the congressional district conventions.
  • 14–21 April: Eight congressional conventions elect 3 National Convention delegates each.
  • 4–5 May: State convention elect 13 National Convention delegates.

• Maine
  There is no formal system of allocating delegates to candidates in any step of the election process. At each meeting the participants decides what the best course of action is.
  None of the 24 delegates are legally bound to vote for a candidate.
  • 29 January - 3 March: Municipal caucuses elect delegates to the state convention.
  • 6 May: State convention as a whole elects 15 National Convention delegates. Delegates from both congressional district caucus separately to elect 3 National Convention delegates each.

• Washington
  There is no formal system of allocating delegates to candidates before the state convention. At each meeting before the convention the participants decides what the best course of action is.
  The 40 elected delegates are legally bound to vote for their presidential preference at the first ballot. The 3 automatic (RNC) delegates are not legally bound to vote for a candidate.
  • 3 March: Precinct caucuses elect delegates to county convention or legislative district caucuses.
  • 17 March - 21 April: County convention and legislative district caucuses elect delegates to the state convention.
  • 31 May - 2 June: State convention as a whole elects 10 National Convention delegates. Delegates from each of the ten congressional district caucus separately to elect 3 National Convention delegates each.

Results

Main articles: Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries and Republican Party presidential candidates, 2012

Candidates	Mitt Romney	Newt Gingrich	Ron Paul	Rick Santorum	Jon Huntsman	Rick Perry	Michele Bachmann
Home state	Massachusetts	Georgia	Texas	Pennsylvania	Utah	Texas	Minnesota
Secured delegates (Total: 137)	91	32	9	4	2	0	0
Popular vote (Total: 2,784,245)	1,119,307 (38.9%)	838,366 (27.5%)	305,864 (11.0%)	430,827 (18.7%)	51,166 (1.7%)	26,143 (0.9%)	12,572 (0.4%)
States – 1st place	New Hampshire Florida Nevada	South Carolina	–	Iowa Colorado Minnesota Missouri (p)	–	–	–
States – 2nd place	South Carolina Iowa Missouri (p) Colorado	Florida Nevada	New Hampshire Minnesota Maine	–	–	–	–
States – 3rd place	Minnesota	Colorado	Iowa Nevada Missouri (p)	South Carolina Florida Maine	New Hampshire	–	–
Suspension date	–	–	–	–	January 16, 2012	January 19, 2012	January 4, 2012

2012 Republican primary results by county

  Mitt Romney

  Ron Paul

  Rick Santorum

  Newt Gingrich

  Rick Perry

Dropped out before primaries
Tim Pawlenty	Herman Cain	Gary Johnson
Aug. 14	Dec. 3	Dec. 28

2011: Start of the race

Background

The U.S. economy suffered a recession from 2007 to 2009, median incomes fell for Americans, and unemployment, while falling from a high of 10.0% in October 2009, has remained above 8% so far through Obama's term in office. Polling showed voters who approved of his "handling of the economy" fell from 60% at the start of his term to the mid-30s by 2011. Since 2008, the Republican Party has experienced big gains in white voters, including younger and poorer Whites who trended Democratic. The results of the 2010 census also reduced the influence of traditionally blue states in the electoral college.

Polling found that Americans were increasingly frustrated with the U.S. government as a whole, and the Republican Party shared in those high disapproval ratings. In particular, although the majority of Americans felt Obama did not have a successful plan to bring jobs, they trusted Congress even less to create them. The House of Representatives, now with a substantial Republican majority since January 2011, refused to raise taxes and was engaged in a lengthy dispute over the debt ceiling. House Speaker John Boehner led negotiations with President Obama over raising the debt ceiling. The Tea Party movement, which was active in political town hall meetings, was opposed to raising the ceiling. LGBT issues have been one of the major discussion topics among candidates. Amid intense debates, almost all Republican candidates have opposed same-sex marriage, expressing support for "traditional marriage" between a man and a woman. Only Jon Huntsman has supported civil unions. Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry have particularly spoken out strongly against gay marriage. Ron Paul has said that he does not believe that the government should enforce a definition of marriage. Santorum has opposed gay adoption, Gingrich and Herman Cain have described being gay as "a choice", and Bachmann has described gays as having a "sexual dysfunction".

Concerns about the security and support of Israel have also been apparent in the lead-up to the 2012 elections, affecting Jewish support for both Obama and the Republican Party. The nuclear armament of Iran was a political issue during the Republican primary, and all candidates opposed Iran acquiring nuclear weapons. Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Perry, and Bachmann all took hawkish stands on Iran, and advocated for military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities if other means of stopping Iran's attempt to develop nuclear weapons failed; Paul opposed both military action and economic sanctions.

A record number of advocacy group pledges were signed by Republican candidates this election cycle. The pledges candidates promised included social issues and fiscal policy. Every major Republican candidate has promised to repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) if elected president in 2012. Rick Santorum was an enthusiastic supporter of pledges, and was called a "Super Pledger" for his participation and defense of the practice. Jon Huntsman declined to sign any pledges, making him the only candidate in the 2012 cycle without one. The Susan B. Anthony List released a pro-life pledge signed by several candidates but not Romney. Pledges against same-sex marriage from the National Organization for Marriage and the Family Leader were signed by several to affirm that they would uphold the Defense of Marriage Act and prevent federal recognition of state marriages. The Family Leader's pledge was highly controversial for its statements about Muslims, slavery and pornography. Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann signed the pledge, which also included a clause for the candidate to pledge to stay faithful to his or her spouse. Bachmann denied her pledge included the slavery language, despite insistence by the Family Leader that she received the full document. Santorum said he was "taken aback initially" when reading the document, but signed. Candidates also signed promises to push for a balanced budget amendment (the pledge was released by the group Let Freedom Ring), to reduce the national debt (Strong America Now), and to prevent any tax increases (Americans for Tax Reform).

Spring: Invisible primary

The race for the Republican primaries began slowly in 2011. Gallup polls found that historically the Republican Party had a clear front-runner by March.

In February and March 2011, the Republican candidates, as well as the party as a whole, were involved in a discussion on radical and political Islam. The Republican Party courted Muslim voters during Bush's 2000 campaign but had lost nearly the entire demographic by 2008. In the 2012 cycle, the supposed threat of Sharia law in the United States became a political issue. Speculated candidate Mike Huckabee made statements criticizing Islam. Rick Santorum was noted as saying Sharia law was "evil". He also said that American history books were corrupted, and that the Crusades were not an act of aggression by the Christians.

When Herman Cain was asked if he would appoint a Muslim to his Cabinet as President, he said, "I will not. And here's why. There is this creeping attempt, this attempt, to gradually ease Sharia law and the Muslim faith into our government. It does not belong in our government. This is what happened to Europe. And little by little, to try to be politically correct, they made this little change. They made this little change. And now they've got a social problem that they don't know what to do with hardly." The phrase "creeping Sharia" became a political catchphrase. By May, Sharia law was a political "litmus test" for the Republican candidates.

Republican enthusiasm for the field of candidates was weak in April, and polling found few Americans could even name the Republican contenders. Considerable media attention was given in April 2011 to Donald Trump, who considered running for the nomination and repeatedly criticized Obama, saying his policies were failing the U.S. economy. Trump said the United States was suffering in the global economy because of poor trade deals, saying "I think the biggest threat is that our jobs are being stolen by other countries. We’re not going to have any jobs here pretty soon." He pointed to the Chinese economy in particular and proposed a 25% tariff on Chinese imports to solve the trade discrepancy between the U.S. and China. Trump seized the issue of conspiracy theories about whether Barack Obama was an American citizen and was vocal in insisting that Obama show his "real" birth certificate. On April 28, Obama released his long form birth certificate. Trump never officially declared or filed an FEC report, and made it clear on May 15 that he would not be running for the GOP nomination.

Governors Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie and Haley Barbour all decided not to run in May, citing family concerns. In May, Newt Gingrich joined the race, but his credibility suffered a setback one week later, following his criticism of the Ryan Plan, a popular budget among Republicans. One month later, his entire senior staff quit en-masse, citing personal difficulties with Gingrich, known to be highly-independent and un-choreographed. In the aftermath, polls indicated Gingrich had lost ground with primary voters and he struggled in polling until September 2011.

With few declared candidates, sponsoring news organizations postponed many of the debates in 2011. In the first debate, held on Fox News, candidates were asked for their opinion on the U.S. debt crisis. Host Bret Baier asked candidates if they would agree to raise taxes by $1 for each new $10 in budget cuts; each candidate refused, rejecting raising taxes. Ron Paul stood out from other candidates, arguing for ending the war on drugs to great applause. At the end of the debate, in which most of the leading candidates did not participate, a focus group assembled for Fox News declared Herman Cain the winner. Viewers said he articulated clearly and directly on conservative principles, and outshined Tim Pawlenty, who at the time was regarded as the only "top-tier candidate" in the debate. Cain succeeded in gaining some momentum, and his supporters were said to have the most enthusiasm for their candidate.

Summer: Draft movements

Two candidates from the 2008 presidential primaries, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, ran again in the 2012 primary campaign. Mitt Romney was an early frontrunner, and he maintained a careful, strategic campaign that centered on being an establishment candidate. Time magazine predicted his approach would fail, saying the Republican Party had changed from "country-club aristocracy" to "pitchfork populism" in 2011. Republicans questioned Romney's commitment to conservative ideals, and often accused him of being a flip-flopper for his changing positions on issues such as state-mandated health care, abortion, climate change, and same sex marriage. Romney maintained a weak lead of 20% nationally throughout 2011, raising doubt that he was a "true frontrunner". He enjoyed a significant money advantage and had the highest name recognition in the field, and many voters found him to be the most "electable" in the general election.

Ron Paul, who ran for president in 1988 and 2008, received warmer support than in previous years. He was a strong fundraiser, raising millions over the Internet through "money bombs", one-day fundraising events launched by his grassroot supporters. His libertarian positions on the IRS, the Federal Reserve, and non-interventionist foreign policy were taken by other candidates, unlike in 2008. He finished a close second in the Iowa Ames Straw Poll and first in the California straw poll, demonstrating that he was a mainstream candidate. A study found that Paul was not widely-covered by news sources in 2011, although he easily shadowed Gary Johnson from much public recognition.

Michele Bachmann speaks at a rally. She was propelled in the race with support from the Tea Party movement.

Michele Bachmann, a Tea Party favorite, started her campaign for president in June 2011, and soon began to poll near front-runner Mitt Romney. She received national publicity and was featured at length in The New Yorker and Newsweek. In Iowa, she engaged in a bitter rivalry with Tim Pawlenty, as she overtook his constituency in evangelical Christian voters. When, on August 14, she won the Ames Straw Poll by a close margin over Ron Paul, she effectively ended Pawlenty's viability as a candidate and he withdrew from the race the next day. Pawlenty had invested heavily in Iowa and needed a strong bump in the polls to improve his poor fundraising. Bachmann's public profile grew during the race, and Forbes rated her the 22nd most powerful woman in the world in August 2011. The Forbes list denoted Bachmann as influential in politics, while ranking Sarah Palin at 34th most powerful for her place as a celebrity. However, Bachmann lost momentum and fell back into single digits.

Over the summer of 2011, several Republican groups began a nationwide campaign to draft Texas governor Rick Perry to compete for the nomination. Perry began an aggressive networking and fundraising strategy to launch a viable campaign. He depended largely on evangelical Christians as his base, and held a prayer meeting with supporters one week before announcing his campaign. The prayer was held to save "a nation in crisis". His entry on August 14, 2011, garnered tremendous publicity and made him an instant top-tier candidate. He polled as the Republican frontrunner within days of his entrance into the race, posing a serious threat to other Christian conservatives, such as Michele Bachmann.

Rick Perry speaking to voters in Iowa

Perry's campaign focused on themes of economic recovery. Touting his record as governor of Texas, he pointed to the 1 million jobs that were created during his 10-year tenure. The Associated Press found Perry to be a confident, personable campaigner. On Perry's first day of campaigning, he stated, "I respect all the other candidates in the field but there is no one that can stand toe-to-toe with us." Even his critics consistently complimented his good-spirited personality and tireless campaigning. Criticism of Perry began almost the moment he entered the race. His connection to Texan cowboy culture and his Southern drawl sounded similar to George W. Bush, for whom he had served as lieutenant governor. Critics drew many parallels between him and the unpopular former president. Perry drew wide criticism when he said that it would be "almost treacherous – or treasonous in my opinion" for the Federal Reserve to be "printing money to play politics". Perry's campaign was scrutinized for conservative ideas in his book, Fed Up. Perry back-tracked from views he had on repealing the income tax and his criticism of Medicare. Perry stood firm by his statements on Social Security, calling it an "illegal Ponzi scheme" during his campaign. His record on tort reform in Texas also drew criticism from trial lawyers, who feared that a Perry administration would lead to wide tort-focused legislation. Perry's lackluster college grades at Texas A&M raised fears that he was not an intellectual leader. On the campaign trail, he told a boy that evolution by natural selection was "a theory with holes in it" and suggested that the data on global warming was manipulated. His disagreement with scientific consensus turned off socially moderate Republicans and prompted a search for fresh, more-centrist candidates.

Dissatisfaction with the Republican field was highest amongst the college-educated, who hoped Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan would enter the race. By the end of the summer, the field of candidates seemed to be settled, as Chris Christie, Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush all said no to activists who asked them to run. George Pataki, a moderate former governor, decided against running, and time was running out for Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin, who were losing speculation as candidates. Sarah Palin had received heavy speculation beginning in 2009, when she resigned as governor of Alaska. Throughout 2010 and 2011, she remained politically active, endorsing candidates in the midterm elections, and launching a "One Nation" bus tour across the United States. Palin further increased speculation in May 2011 when she purchased a house in Arizona that many saw as a possible campaign headquarters. Enthusiasm for her potential run dropped as time went on, and by September 2011, a majority of Republicans and independents preferred that she would not run. On October 5, Palin officially removed her name from consideration for the nomination. In September, large donors encouraged Chris Christie to reconsider the presidential race, owing to their dissatisfaction with Perry and Romney. On October 4, 2011, Christie announced definitively that he would not run, saying "now is not my time".

Fall: Debate season

Main article: Republican Party presidential debates, 2012

File:Republican presidential debate in Iowa.jpg

Candidates at a 2012 Republican presidential debate in August 2011.

Herman Cain gained frontrunner status in October 2011. He ended his campaign December 3, 2011, after media reports of alleged sexual misconduct surfaced.

Beginning in September 2011, the Republicans held a frequent pace of televised debates—5 debates in 6 weeks. The ratings for the debates were far higher than those of the 2008 primaries, and the impact of the debates on the candidates' success was significant. Perry and Romney, the frontrunners, sparred with each other and received criticism from other candidates. Huntsman distanced himself from the Republican Party as a whole, saying it was becoming the "anti-science party", and would be in a losing position for the general election if it chose Perry.

Huntsman debated Romney's positions on China, saying Romney could incite a trade war for calling China a "currency manipulator". Huntsman argued that he was more electable in the general election than all of his opponents, and predicted that the Perry–Romney rivalry would fizzle into obscurity; he drew parallels to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson from the 2008 election.

Bachmann, who had been losing ground to Perry, attacked his actions as governor of Texas to vaccinate teenage girls against HPV. Bachmann said Perry was influenced by the Merck pharmaceutical company, and said the vaccination trampled on the girls' rights, who she said "didn't have a choice". Bachmann told the media that a voter came to her and claimed her child developed mental retardation from the vaccine. After scientists disputed her claim as baseless, she refused to retract the statement, and insisted the vaccine had dangerous side effects. According to The Weekly Standard, Bachmann's scientific illiteracy on the HPV scare created an implosion for her campaign, which lost significant support.

Perry's performance at the debates was widely panned, as political analysts noticed him in a pattern of becoming lethargic and incoherent as time wore on, and found some of his statements "cringeworthy" to conservatives. In one debate, he froze when stating the three government agencies he wanted to eliminate, forgetting the third. As a result, he lost supporters to Herman Cain. Cain insisted that his momentum was not a rebuke of Perry.

During the debates, Herman Cain pushed his "9-9-9" economic plan and a Chilean-inspired model for reforming Social Security, receiving lively applause. Cain rose above Mitt Romney in several polls and became a frontrunner with strong fundraising. His campaign was dogged by a series of surfacing sexual harassment allegations, which detracted from his campaigning. Cain stated that the accusations were politically and racially motivated, and said he could not remember if he knew one of the accusers or not. Despite the allegations, Cain continued to lead in polls but experienced a sharp drop in female support.

Cain unequivocally denied all sexual misconduct charges on national television. Using vocal tone technology available to law enforcement, a private investigator determined that Cain was telling the truth about one accuser. The Associated Press revealed that another accuser had a history of making workplace allegations for legal settlements, and no others had come forward to publicly corroborate their stories. A fourth woman told the press that she had a 13-year extramarital affair with Cain, and that the two had been having a sexual relationship up until the start of his presidential campaign. Cain denied that he had had an affair with the fourth woman, but her story was particularly damaging because Cain's wife did not know that he was financially supporting the woman. On December 3, 2011, Cain suspended his campaign.

Gingrich engaged in a pattern of challenging debate moderators for the wording and time limits of their questions, and invoked Reagan's Commandment, vowing to restrain from negative campaigning. He later seemed to change his position on that and became one of the most negative campaigners to date, mainly attacking governor Mitt Romney. Gingrich repeatedly complimented Rick Santorum trying to team up against Romney trying to sell himself as unifying the party. By December 2011, Gingrich became frontrunner and was attacked by the media and his rivals for his past work with Freddie Mac. Romney argued that Gingrich should return money he was paid for work for Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored enterprise that was unpopular for its role in the United States housing bubble. Gingrich defended his work with Freddie Mac, saying that he supported efforts to increase home ownership and denied doing any lobbying. Gingrich fired back at Romney, who called him a career politician, telling him the "only reason you didn't become a career politician is you lost to Teddy Kennedy".

Romney's attacks intensified on Gingrich, as he said he was too "zany" and "unreliable" in his personal temperament to be President. Gingrich pointed out that Romney had made money from "bankrupting companies and laying off employees", a reference to Romney's business practices as head of Bain Capital. A New York Times story featured Gingrich's record on health care, finding that he supported bailout monies that funded electronic health records, and often sided with Democrats such as Tom Daschle and Hillary Clinton on Medicare's expansion for prescription drug benefits.

First contests

In the first six weeks of 2012 (January 3 to February 11) nine primaries and caucuses were held. In the same time six presidential debates were held.

Iowa

Gingrich and his wife Callista at a campaign event. Gingrich lost his lead in Iowa quickly before the caucus, attributed to super PAC-funded negative ads.

Main article: Iowa Republican caucuses, 2012

In the few weeks before the Iowa caucus, Gingrich's lead quickly began to evaporate. Iowans were bombarded with over $4.4 million in negative advertising on Gingrich from super PACs sympathetic to Mitt Romney and others. Romney refused to denounce the attacks and claimed that it was illegal for him to repudiate their TV ads. Gingrich attempted to defend his public image in Iowa through meeting with voters, and criticized his rivals for their inaction in speaking up on the super PACs. He acknowledged that his positive campaign had been a weakness, and had allowed his rivals to gain the upper hand through negative attacks. Ron Paul bought TV ads attacking Gingrich for his apparent flip-flops on abortion, a hot button issue for evangelical Christians. Ron Paul enjoyed a significant upswing in Iowa, and was noted for a well-organized and well-funded campaign infrastructure. In the last few days before the caucus, Rick Santorum's campaign experienced more media attention and his popularity surged to caucus day. On the night of the caucuses, Romney was reported the winner of Iowa by only eight votes over Santorum, but after the results were certified, Santorum was given the win, beating Romney by 34 votes, despite the results from 8 districts being lost. The results of the Iowa caucuses are nonbinding and all delegates from the state are free to vote for the candidate of their choice in the Convention. Following the caucus, Michelle Bachmann dropped out. Rick Perry briefly reassessed his campaign, but decided to continue. Because of the close result and the incomplete records, and the lack of physical ballots to be recounted, there was some confusion who the actual winner was. Many treated it as a two-way tie, including the Iowa Republican executive director, who claimed "It's a split decision". But the confusion ended January 19 when the Iowa Republican chairman declared Santorum to be the winner.

New Hampshire

Jon Huntsman invested heavily in New Hampshire. After finishing third, he withdrew from the race and endorsed Romney.

Main article: New Hampshire Republican primary, 2012

Mitt Romney easily won the primary with 39% of the vote, followed by Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman. Romney's win in New Hampshire was seen as a given; he had persistently showed popularity in that state, but rivals were intensely fighting for a second-place finish there. Romney won seven of the state's delegates to the Republican National Convention, while Ron Paul won three and Jon Huntsman two. Huntsman, a moderate, had staked his candidacy on New Hampshire and invested heavily in at least a strong second place showing there. Huntsman polled at 1-2% nationally and his 17% finish in New Hampshire, after 150 campaign events, $2 million in self-financing, and $2.5 million from his father, was seen as lackluster. Campaigns & Elections noted that his singular focus on New Hampshire made it impossible for him to spin around his third place finish as anything but a failure.

South Carolina

Main article: South Carolina Republican primary, 2012

Romney appeared to be the eventual Republican nominee in national polls, and analysts predicted that the race for the Republican nomination would soon be over if Romney prevailed in South Carolina; the state has reliably voted for the winner of the Republican nomination since 1980. However, South Carolina, with its higher percentages of veterans, evangelicals and social conservatives, was seen as an unlikely territory for Romney, who was generally considered a moderate. Gingrich, who was originally from neighboring Georgia, waged an aggressive and successful campaign in South Carolina and underscored its importance, saying bluntly, "If I don't win the primary Saturday, we will probably nominate a moderate. And the odds are fairly high he will lose to Obama." Gingrich urged Santorum and Perry to drop out and support him in the days before the primary, arguing that their support could coalesce the "anti-Romney" vote and stop him from a victory. Two days before the vote, Rick Perry dropped his bid and endorsed Newt Gingrich, who went on to win the primary.

Gingrich gained momentum in South Carolina after two strong debate performances, and detractors began to increase their attacks on him, including criticism of his past divorces. Two days before the primary, ABC News aired an interview with his former wife criticizing Gingrich, and fraudulent emails circulating rumors that Gingrich had coerced his former wife into having an abortion were sent in the days before the election. Gingrich was aided by a $5 million donation from Sheldon Adelson, which helped fund TV ads critical of Romney's corporate success at Bain Capital. Romney's deflection of criticism towards his business practices at Bain Capital as well as his reluctance to reveal his income tax returns raised suspicions that he was hiding something. His supporters and detractors urged him to reveal his tax returns in January, but Romney insisted on doing so later in April, when he would likely have already won the nomination. Romney attempted to deflect the issue and invoked Gingrich to release his ethics charges as Speaker, despite the fact that Gingrich's congressional record has been public for over 15 years. Polls taken as recent as the day before the election showed Gingrich with a commanding lead, leading Romney by double digits. On January 21, 2012, Gingrich scored an "easy victory" in the South Carolina primary with over 40% of the vote. For the first time since 1980, three different Republican candidates captured Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Florida

Main article: Florida Republican primary, 2012

Florida would have been represented by 99 delegates, but the Florida Republican Party set the date of the primary for January 31, violating the guidelines of the Republican National Committee (RNC), so the Florida delegation to the National Convention has been reduced to 50 delegates; none of them are RNC (or super) delegates. Delegates will be selected by the State Executive Board and awarded to the winner of the primary on a winner-take-all basis. The delegates are bound for three ballots at the National Convention.

Although Gingrich led Romney by double digits in opinion polls immediately following the former's victory in South Carolina, by the time of the January 31 primary, he was widely expected to lose. The Florida campaign was noted for its negativity, with one media group determining that 92% of television advertisements, the vast majority of which were run by Mitt Romney, run in the week prior to the primary were negative. Romney took Florida with 46% of votes cast to Gingrich's 32%, Santorum's 13%, and Paul's 7%.

Nevada

Main article: Nevada Republican caucuses, 2012

Nevada was originally going to hold its caucuses on February 18, but after Florida moved their primary into January, Nevada contemplated following suit. As a compromise, Nevada moved it to February 4, and the RNC promised that the Nevada delegates would be seated on the National Convention floor "in the best positions" and they would have prime hotel space.

Mitt Romney was declared by CNN the winner with 50.1%, while Gingrich got 21.2% and Paul 18.8%. Rick Santorum finished fourth with 10%.

Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri

Main articles: Colorado Republican caucuses, 2012; Minnesota Republican caucuses, 2012; and Missouri Republican primary, 2012

Colorado (36 delegates), Minnesota (40 delegates), and Missouri (52 delegates) held non-binding contests on February 7, 2012. After Romney's victory in Florida, he regained momentum heading into February. All the February 7 contests were non-binding, and delegates will be assigned later on in varying processes. Missouri's primary was called a "beauty contest" because Missouri's delegates will not be assigned until the state's caucuses in March. However, Gingrich did not make the ballot for the primary. In Minnesota, a poll released three days before the caucuses showed a tight race between Santorum, Romney, and Gingrich, but another poll released the day of the caucuses showed Santorum opening a nine point lead. A poll taken in Colorado three days before the caucuses showed Romney with a 40%-26% lead over Santorum, and another poll released the day of the caucuses showed Romney up 37%-27% over Santorum.

Santorum ended up sweeping the February 7 contests. In Colorado, Santorum received 40% in a significant upset over Romney, who received 35%. Gingrich and Paul received 13% and 12%, respectively. In Minnesota, Santorum won with 45% to 27% for Paul, 17% for Romney, and 11% for Gingrich. In Missouri, Santorum won with 55% of the vote. Romney got 25% and Paul got 12%, and Perry, Bachmann, and Cain each got 1% (they were still on the ballot despite having dropped out).

Santorum's victory in Colorado was especially important because Romney campaigned hard there and won the state easily in 2008. The effect of Santorum's sweep was threefold: It gave Santorum an opportunity for a fresh look from Republicans across the nation, it was a stinging rebuke of Romney in heavily evangelical and Tea Party-oriented states, and it gave Gingrich serious competition for the chief alternative to Romney.

Maine

Main article: Maine Republican caucuses, 2012

Maine held its non-binding caucuses February 4–11 for 24 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates. With 84% of the precincts reporting, Mitt Romney is leading with 38%, followed by Ron Paul with 37%, Santorum in 3rd with 18% and Gingrich in 4th with 6%. Due to a snowstorm, many towns in Washington and Aroostook counties have yet to hold their caucuses. Despite the decision to cancel the caucus in Washington County, the area only received a dusting of snow on the date of the event.

Pre-Super Tuesday states

Michigan and Arizona

Main articles: Michigan Republican primary, 2012 and Arizona Republican primary, 2012

Michigan and Arizona will hold non-binding primaries on February 28, 2012.

Following his sweep on February 7, Santorum received a huge boost in momentum as conservatives seeking an alternative to Romney began leaving Gingrich for Santorum. Romney has been faced with serious questions about his viability, having lost five of nine contests held thus far. Numerous polls taken after Santorum's sweep showed him either leading Romney nationally or close behind him within the margin of error. Santorum said the race is a two-person struggle between himself and Romney. The focus of the race has turned to Michigan, which Bloomberg News called a "political Gettysburg". Romney had been expected to cruise to an easy win in Michigan, a state he has family ties to and won decisively in 2008, but polls in mid-February showed Santorum leading Romney or neck-and-neck with him in the state. On February 15 Markos Moulitsas, founder of DailyKos, announced "Operation Hilarity," which called on Democrats to vote for Santorum in Michigan's open primary.

Arizona, perceived as less critical than Michigan, appears to be Romney territory, but Santorum said he expected to do "reasonably well" there.

Super Tuesday

Super Tuesday, when the largest number of primaries on a single day are held, will be on March 6, 2012. Ten states (Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia) will hold contests on Super Tuesday.

Future events

• February 22: A debate will be held in Arizona
• February 28: Primaries are held in Arizona and Michigan
• March 2: Caucuses are held in Washington
• March 6: Super Tuesday, 10 states will have their contests.
• March 19: A republican presidential debate will be held in Oregon
• April 3: Maryland Primary
• April 24: Connecticut, Delaware, New York and Pennsylvania primaries.
• June 26: The last primary (Utah) is held.
• July 31: The last caucus (Northern Mariana Islands) is held.
• August 27 to 30: The Republican National Convention

See also

• Republican Party presidential candidates, 2012
• Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
• United States presidential election, 2012 timeline
• Republican Party presidential debates, 2012
• Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2012 presidential primaries
• Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012
• Straw polls for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012
• Endorsements for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012
• United States presidential election
• Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2012

External links

• Primaries collected news and commentary at The New York Times
• Republican Primary Tracker from The Washington Post
• Republican Primary Tracker from The Wall Street Journal
• Republican Primary 17-poll average from The Wall Street Journal
• 2012 Election Central
• The Green Papers
• America's Choice 2012: 2012 Primaries and caucuses results from CNN