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2006 United States House of Representatives elections

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Template:Future election Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 7 2006, with all of the 435 seats in the House up for election. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 110th United States Congress from January 3 2007 until January 3 2009.

The 2006 Senate election is scheduled for the same date as the House election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

Summary

The House is currently composed of 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats and 1 Independent (who caucuses with the Democrats). The two vacant seats are New Jersey's 13th congressional district and Texas's 22nd congressional district. Republicans hold a 29 seat advantage, so Democrats would need to pick up 15 seats to take control of the House, which has had a Republican majority since 1995. Predictions based on historical trends suggest that such a swing is possible, if not probable[1].

This page is for swing districts and notable races. A complete list of the races in all districts (but without the commentary below) can be found at United States House elections, 2006 complete list.

Vulnerable incumbents and open seats

It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the district, and that the most competitive races are those where the incumbent retires, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed here, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Representatives in the interim. This would also change the party balances.

There are currently 30 open seats—28 incumbents who will not be seeking re-election plus 2 vacancies; New Jersey's 13th congressional district, which will be filled at the same time as the general election, with the winner taking office in November, immediately after the votes are certified; and Texas's 22nd congressional district, which has not yet announced final plans for a special election. Of the 28 open seats, 19 are held by Republicans, 8 are held by Democrats and 1 is held by an independent. The vacant seat in New Jersey was held by a Democrat, and the one in Texas was Republican.

Swing Districts and notable races

Arizona

The primary is on September 12, 2006.

  • Arizona's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Rick Renzi (R) is well-known for his strongly conservative positions in a district that is competitive. In 2002 he won only 49% of the vote, elected by just 6,000 votes. Renzi gained national attention in 2004 when he engaged in a screaming match against moderate Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois over the issue of embryonic stem cell research, which Renzi considers an act of murder. According to media reports, Renzi choked Kirk during the incident. Both Congressmen have since denied the reports. Renzi has also stated that he will not return some $30,000 in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC, despite calls from Democrats to do so. Liberal advocacy group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has included Renzi in its list of the 13 most corrupt members of the House of Representatives. However, Renzi's leading opponent dropped out of the race and none of the remaining five Democrats currently running is considered a viable candidate. Libertarian David schlosser has also qualified for the November ballot.
  • Arizona's 5th congressional district— Incumbent J.D. Hayworth (R) appeared on his way to an easy reelection this election cycle, but that has changed. Democrats have a locally well-known candidate in State Senator Harry Mitchell, a former Mayor of Tempe. Mitchell has been a political force in his home town, one of the largest communities in the district, and Democrats are enthusiastic about his candidacy. A May 9 SurveyUSA poll shows Hayworth leading by only 50% to 45%. The district Hayworth represents leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. Republicans are concerned, but point out that Mitchell has gotten off to a late start and that Hayworth will be well-funded.

California

  • California's 11th congressional district— Longtime incumbent Richard Pombo (R) won reelection in 2004 by a reasonably comfortable 61% to 39% margin. Pombo has been associated with the ethical and legal scandals revolving around Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff and is currently under investigation, which is seen as eroding his popular support. The Democratic candidate who garnered the 39% in 2004, Jerry McNerney, joined that race as a write-in candidate two weeks before the primary election. In 2006, McNerney was challenged in the primary by Steve Filson. Filson was backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee but was surprisingly defeated by McNerney in the primary. Pombo was challenged for the Republican nomination by former Representative Pete McCloskey, one of the co-authors of the Endangered Species Act. Pombo won 63% of the primary vote to 32% for McCloskey.[6] McCloskey has now endorsed McNerney.[7] The eleventh district is located in the San Joaquin Valley, includes portions of the San Francisco Bay Area, and leans Republican. A recent poll showed Pombo losing to Jerry McNerney, 46-42.[8][9]
  • California's 22nd congressional district— Incumbent Republican Bill Thomas, a prominent and influential member of the Republican caucus, is retiring after more than 25 years in Congress. He represents the agricultural Central Valley, a Republican stronghold where 52% of voters are registered Republicans and 30% are Democrats. He won re-election in 2004 unopposed. Republican Leader of the California Assembly, Kevin McCarthy, a former aide to Thomas, is the GOP nominee and is very popular in the Central Valley.[10]
  • California's 41st congressional district— Incumbent Republican Jerry Lewis (R) is under investigation for his connections to the lobbyists that bribed former Representative Duke Cunningham(R).[2][3][4] As election day nears and the scandal heats up, this long-time incumbent faces a potentially tough race in this long-time conservative stronghold.[5] Lewis received 83% of the vote in 2004, but he faced no Democratic opposition. He will face Democrat Louie Contreras in November.
  • California's 50th congressional district—The winner of the special election on June 6, 2006 was former Congressman Brian Bilbray. He was challenged by Cardiff School Board member Francine Busby, who appeared to have pulled ahead during the campaign. However, in the final week of the election, she was overheard implying that she was encouraging illegal aliens to vote. The Bilbray campaign gleefully broadcast that remark throughout the district. Republicans invested five million dollars in the race, and Democrats two million, and Bilbray won the election by a 5% margin. He will still remain a target of the Democrats in the November election, but this was seen as Busby's best chance at victory and Bilbray will now have the advantages of incumbency.

Colorado

The primary is on August 8, 2006.

  • Colorado's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent John Salazar (D) was elected in 2004 by a 50% to 47% margin. Salazar's victory was in part because his Republican opponent backed a locally unpopular plan to redistribute water from the western slope, the heart of this district, to Denver. Also, the election was generally good to Colorado Democrats, who gained a U.S. Senate seat (won by Salazar's brother, Ken), a House seat (this one), and control of the state legislature. But Republicans vow to take back this competitive (narrowly won by President Bush) district nestled in the Rocky Mountains of Western Colorado. Currently Republican businessman Scott Tipton is running.
  • Colorado's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Tom Tancredo (R), a firebrand in the Republican caucus, has taken stances at odds with some of his electorate, such as opposing gun control in a district which experienced the Columbine Massacre, a stance which nearly cost him reelection previously. He won with 60% of the vote in 2004, however his opponent in 2006 will be Bill Winter a Veteran of both the Navy and Marine Corps. Tancredo's chances at reelection are very high despite his verbal gaffes because he represents a solidly Republican district that gave President Bush his highest vote total in the state, but he has alienated much of the Republican leadership by harshly criticizing the president's stances on illegal immigration, climaxing in a "screaming match" with Karl Rove at the White House, where Rove told Tancredo not to "darken the doorstep of the White House".[6] The position of the GOP on Tancredo remains ambiguous and whether they will attempt to remove him or support him is currently unknown. Tancredo recently remarked that if U.S. Senator Wayne Allard were to retire in 2008, he would run to succeed Allard.[citation needed]

Connecticut

The primary is on August 8, 2006.

  • Connecticut's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Chris Shays (R) won reelection by a 52% to 48% margin in 2004 and represents a Democratic-trending district encompassing southwestern Connecticut that includes Bridgeport and Westport. Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell, the 2004 nominee, is challenging Shays again and is well-funded. Shays's problem now is almost exclusively centered on his support for the Iraq War, as he is mostly liberal on domestic issues. Shays' endorsement of Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman struck many as signs of worry on his part. Shays can't be attacked as a knee-jerk conservative, but local unpopularity of both George W. Bush and the Iraq War are helping Farrell's campaign.
  • Connecticut's 5th congressional district— Although incumbent Nancy Johnson (R) won with at least 60% of the vote in 2004 and faced a difficult challenge (running against a fellow incumbent in a redrawn district) in 2002, winning with just 54%, she is still a Republican in a swing district. While the 5th is Connecticut's most conservative region, John Kerry won the district by about 1100 votes in 2004 and Al Gore won it when Johnson represented it as the 6th District in 2000. She faces a credible challenge from state Senator Chris Murphy. Johnson is popular in the district, but with Bush's rating in New England at rock bottom, a Democratic victory is possible. In fact, in a slightly more Democratic district and with a weak Republican presidential candidate, Bob Dole, leading the ticket, Johnson very nearly lost in 1996. Johnson is a prodigious fundraiser, and added $867,000 to her coffers in the last quarter, raising her cash on hand to over $2.6 million.Murphy has had to defend his record of supporting tax increases in the Connecticut legislature.http://www.courant.com/news/local/hc-ctmurphy0727.artjul27,0,2238761.story?coll=hc-headlines-local

One factor which must be considered in all 2006 Connecticut races is the popularity of incumbent Republican Governor Jodi Rell, who is seeking re-election, and the divisions in Democratic ranks due to the primary between Senator Joseph Lieberman and Ned Lamont, as well as Lieberman's possible independent candidacy should he lose the Democrat primary.

Florida

The primary is on September 5, 2006.


  • Florida's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Ander Crenshaw (R) will not run unoppossed in this election, two others have joined the race at the last minute, Robert Harms (D) and John Blade (WRI). While the 4th is a model of gentrification for Whites, Elite, and Republican Party members and supporters, it is showing a weakness and disappointment current in today's society and surrounding area.
  • Florida's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Mike Bilirakis (R) plans to retire, and many had not expected this seat to be very competitive as it is a Republican-leaning district located on Florida's Gulf Coast north of Tampa. Bilirakis' son, state Representative Gus Bilirakis, has announced that he will run for his father's seat. He appears to be the front runner in his party, though he faces a primary challenge from chiropractor Dave Langheier. Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky is the likely Democratic nominee. After Busansky reported stronger than expected first-quarter fundraising, many have begun categorizing this race as competitive. Due in part to Busansky's fundraising, the DCCC has chosen her as one of 22 candidates that have the potential to pick up seats, and will likely provide Busansky with a high amount of funding. (For more details, see Florida 9th congressional district election, 2006)
  • Florida's 22nd congressional district— Republican incumbent Clay Shaw has been elected to twelve terms in the House and has a local following going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale in the 1970s. He is seeking reelection to his seat, but many Democrats hope that this time around number 13 really will be unlucky. Shaw faced a tough challenge back in 2000 from State Senator Elaine Bloom, who lost by only 599 votes. But Shaw was redistricted into more favorable turf and scored somewhat easier reelections in 2002 and 2004. Now he is once again a top target of the Democrats—this time, State Senate Minority Leader Ron Klein plans to challenge Shaw. Expect this race to be very close as Klein is a good fundraiser and good friend of neighboring Congressman Robert Wexler. Shaw has been criticized for refusing to return $30,000 in campaign contributions from ARMPAC, which notes former Texas congressman Tom DeLay as one of its founders. Though Shaw won reelection to this seat in 2004 with 63% of the vote, John Kerry still defeated George W. Bush in the district by a margin of 50% to 48%. Also, Shaw's opponent in 2004 dropped out before the election. The revelation that Shaw has lung cancer makes the race even more unpredictable.
  • Florida's 24th congressional district- Incumbent Tom Feeney will face Clint Curtis. Feeney has been publicly accused by former Republican assistant Curtis of having asked Curtis to design an electronic voting program which could effectively "flip an entire vote count" away from any Democrat in an election and mass market it in order to defraud elections. Curtis switched party affiliation and is now running as a Democrat against his former boss. Feeney also may be hurt by donations he received from Jack Abramoff and convicted former Tom DeLay Chief of Staff Tony Rudy.

Georgia

Main article: Georgia United States House elections, 2006
  • Georgia's 3rd congressional district— A Republican mid-decade redistricting made this Macon-based district more compact and somewhat more Republican. Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall faces a very tough race against former Congressman Mac Collins, who represented an adjoining district from 1993 to 2005. Marshall was reelected with 63% in 2004, but in 2002 won by only 50.5% to 49.5%.
  • Georgia's 12th congressional district— Democrat John Barrow unseated first-term Republican Max Burns by 52% to 48% in a Democratic leaning district which Burns won over a scandal-tainted opponent in 2002. This year, Burns is seeking a rematch. Recent redistricting made this southern Georgia district more marginal, but the balance still leans to the Democrats.

Hawaii

Idaho

  • Idaho's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Butch Otter (R) is running for Governor. Though it elected a Democrat in 1990 and 1992, the district, which contains the Idaho Panhandle region and most of the Boise metropolitan area, has been reliably Republican in recent years. In the May 23 primary, hard-line conservative state Representative Bill Sali edged out a crowded field to win the Republican nomination with 26%. Attorney Larry Grant won the Democratic nomination. Sali is a controversial figure in Idaho politics who clashed repeatedly with Republican leadership in the Idaho Legislature. He also ran a lot of negative ads against his fellow Republicans to win the nomination. All this may give Grant a boost in the general election, although Sali remains favored given the GOP tilt of the area and the popular Otter at the top of the ticket. Other candidates include Constitution Party nominee Paul Smith and independent Dave Olson. A new party called the United Party [7] has also fielded a candidate, newspaper publisher and small business owner Andy Hedden-Nicely. These candidates are not expected to make a significant showing in the race.

Illinois

  • Illinois's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Melissa Bean (D) defeated 35-year House veteran Phil Crane 52% to 48% in 2004, and is being targeted by Republicans who hope to regain control of the seat. Her seat is Republican-leaning and includes the northern suburbs of Chicago in and around Lake County. Investment banker David McSweeney, who has been willing to spend much of his own money on the campaign, won a crowded Republican primary. This race is a top Republican priority. A more liberal third party candidate and former 2004 Democratic Candidate, Bill Scheurer, is running and some labor unions are withholding support from Bean, complicating her re-election chances.
  • Illinois's 17th congressional district— This western Illinois district, which includes Moline, was unexpectedly vacated when longtime liberal Congressman Lane Evans announced that he would not seek reelection due to a decline in his health. The Democratic nominee is Phil Hare, a former aide to Evans. The Republican nominee, former newscaster Andrea Lane Zinga, ran against Evans in 2004 and won 39% of the vote. The district leans Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so.

Indiana

As of mid-July, the DCCC announced it would target three Indiana districts. They are: [9]

  • Indiana's 2nd congressional district— Chris Chocola (R) won reelection in 2004 with 54% of the vote. Chocola was first elected in 2002 by a 50-46% margin. Democrat Joe Donnelly, who lost to Chocola 54-45% in 2004, is running again in 2006. Democrats blame Donnelly's 2004 loss on a lack of funding from the national party that allowed Chocola to outspend Donnelly by a two-to-one margin. President Bush has visited the South Bend district seven times since 2000, suggesting that Republicans may be concerned that Chocola is potentially vulnerable.
  • Indiana's 8th congressional district— John Hostettler (R), who has only a 34% approval rating, is being challenged by Vanderburg County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler has a history of winning tough reelections, but Ellsworth is believed to be his most popular opponent to date. In a district that usually votes Republican in national elections but frequently supports Democrats locally, Hostettler may have to moderate himself after several verbal blunders in Congress, the most infamous being a widely denounced statement that, "Like a moth to a flame the Democrats can't help themselves when it comes to denigrating and demonizing Christians." According to the Democrats, the district is very marginal.[10] The district has been nicknamed "The Bloody Eighth" due to its frequent ousting of incumbent Congressmen, including in 1958, 1966, 1974, 1978, 1982, and 1994.
  • Indiana's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Mike Sodrel (R) defeated then-incumbent Baron Hill by only 1,425 votes in 2004, the smallest winning percentage in any congressional race that year. [11]. Hill has announced he hopes to reclaim his seat. He defeated anti-war challenger Gretchen Clearwater in the May 2 primary. Sodrel is a self-described staunch Republican party loyalist in an evenly divided district. Republicans point out that Hill had the advantages of incumbency in 2004 and won't this time.

Iowa

  • Iowa's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Jim Nussle (R) is running for governor. His district is Democratic-leaning, and of the open seats so far is probably the most likely to change hands. It contains most of northeastern Iowa including large cities such as Dubuque, the Quad Cities and Waterloo. Wealthy businessman Mike Whalen won the Republican nomination in a mild surprise by emphasizing border security, while attorney Bruce Braley is the Democratic nominee. Democrat Bill Gluba, who ran three separate times against Nussle, lost the primary to Braley and expressed anger at his party's establishment for trying to undermine his campaign. Nussle was reelected in 2000 and 2004 with 55% of the vote but Al Gore and John Kerry won the district in those same years, signaling that the open seat will be very competitive come November 2006.
  • Iowa's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) won a close 2004 reelection in a competitive district containing Des Moines and its surrounding areas. Republican state Senate President Jeff Lamberti is challenging Boswell and is well-funded. Boswell's age (70), severe health problems and his breaking a term-limit pledge, made when he first ran for office, could factor into the race.

Kansas

  • Kansas's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Dennis Moore (D) won reelection in 2004 with 54% of the vote, but this Kansas City-based district nearly ousted him in 2000 and 2002 and also voted overwhelmingly for George W. Bush. Banker Chuck Ahner and state Representative Scott Schwab plan to challenge Moore in 2006, and with this Republican-leaning, independent-minded district, either Ahner or Schwab could pull off an upset. The primary is on August 1, 2006.

Kentucky

  • Kentucky's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Ron Lewis (R) is seeking a sixth full term (seventh total) in this west-central Kentucky district. This district is conservative and Lewis has had no trouble winning reelection. But when first elected, he had promised to serve only six terms. He is being challenged by state Representative Mike Weaver (politician), whose background in business and Veteran of two wars statues make it hard to portray him as a liberal. However, Weaver's fundraising has been disappointing.
  • Kentucky's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Anne Northup (R) is a target for the Democrats every election; in 2004 and 2000, John Kerry and Al Gore both won her congressional district by two percent. While Northup has generally run close races, she won 60% of the vote in 2004 against a highly touted opponent. Redistricting after the 2000 census added a few more Republicans to the district, according to Congressional Quarterly. The Democratic candidate this year is John Yarmuth, the founder of local free publication the LEO. Democrats claim this race is winnable, but Yarmouth's liberal views and articles give Northup plenty of material for negative ads. See the article on the district for more on the race.
  • Kentucky's 4th congressional district— First-term incumbent Geoff Davis (R) is being challenged by USAF Major Ken Lucas-D, who held the seat from 1999 to 2005. Lucas defeated Davis 51% to 48% in 2002, and retired in 2004, adhering to a pledge of serving only three consecutive terms in the House. Lucas was among the most conservative Democrats in Congress and remains well-known in the district. Recently, CQ updated its rating again, this time to "Toss-Up," meaning the race could go either way. In late July the Washington Post also rated the race as a toss-up.[12] A SurveyUSA poll released on July 25, 2006 showed Lucas leading 50% to 41%. [13]

Louisiana

The primary is on November 7, 2006.

  • Louisiana's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Congressman William Jefferson (D) has been under intense investigation and the FBI has claimed that it has videotaped him accepting $100,000 in bribes. The police also found money in Jefferson's freezer that was hidden amidst frozen food products. While it is virtually unlikely this district will switch to the Republican Party, there is a strong possibility of a primary race here. The seat is located in heavily Democratic New Orleans. No Republican has represented this district since reconstruction. So far, only Republican lawyer Joe Lavigne has entered the race against Jefferson.
  • Louisiana's 3rd congressional district— In a December 2004 runoff, now-incumbent Charlie Melancon (D) squeaked into Congress by 569 votes over Billy Tauzin III, the son and namesake of his popular predecessor. His is a swing district in southeast Louisiana, which may make him vulnerable. However, Louisiana's unique open primary voting system (where everyone runs against everyone else, regardless of party affiliation, and if no one takes 50% then the top two enter a runoff) leaves everything subject to speculation. A potential wild card is the effect of comments made by House Speaker Dennis Hastert in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, in which he publicly questioned whether the federal government should rebuild much of the city of New Orleans. The backlash from his comments, and from the general perception of a less-than-effective response by the Republican administration, could benefit Democrats in the state. However, many voters (particularly African-Americans and the poor, two strongly Democratic demographics) have moved elsewhere while the cleanup commences, and it's unclear how many of them will return. Melancon is facing state Senator Craig Romero (R), who finished a close third in the 2004 open primary.
  • Louisiana's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Charles Boustany (R) won 55% to 45% in the December 2004 runoff, and should be a good bet for reelection in his relatively conservative Southwest Louisiana district. He got a break when Chris John, the Democrat who represented this district from 1997 until his Senate run in 2004, decided not to run again. Boustany is likely to be opposed by attorney Hunter Lundy of Lake Charles, who lost to Chris John in the 1996 runoff. However, this district was heavily damaged by Hurricane Rita, and it is not known how many voters have temporarily—or permanently —moved elsewhere.

Maryland

Main article: Maryland Congressional election, 2006

Michigan

The primary is August 8, 2006

  • Michigan's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R) did not have a great campaign in 2004. Though he won with 58% of the vote, this was only after he outspent his opponent (attorney Steve Reifman) by an over-10-to-1 ratio. For a 7-term incumbent, this is less than spectacular. Also, the fact that Bush barely won his district with 50% of the vote shows that it is no longer a Republican stronghold. Knollenberg is potentially vulnerable this year. First, he faces a respectable primary opponent in Oakland County School Board member Patricia Godchaux, a moderate ex-state Representative who is accusing Knollenberg of being ineffective. Radio talk host Nancy Skinner (on Air America Radio affiliate WDTW) is the Democratic challenger. Skinner has raised a considerable amount of money compared to the other candidates in this race. She has been endorsed by the UAW, AFL-CIO and NOW. Skinner had previously lived in Illinois and graciously conceded to Barack Obama in the Illinois State Senate primary.

Minnesota

The primary is September 12, 2006.

  • Minnesota's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent John Kline (R) was reelected in 2004 due to the collapse of his challenger's campaign, winning by a margin of 57% to 40%. Things were expected to be very different in 2006. whistleblower and Former FBI Agent Coleen Rowley, who accused the bureau of mishandling pre-9/11 intelligence, is running as a Democrat, and her presence initially garnered media attention. The 2nd district, south of the Twin Cities, leans Republican but is not out of reach for a Democrat (it was held by Democrat Bill Luther from 1995 until redistricting caused his defeat by Kline in 2002). However, Rowley's credibility was damaged when her campaign website showed an image of Kline's face imposed on Colonel Klink from Hogan's Heroes. After widespread criticism, she publicly apologized. Partly as a result, Republicans are becoming more confident about this race.
  • Minnesota's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Martin Sabo (D) is retiring after 26 years in the House. He won reelection with 70% of the vote in 2004 in a district that went for John Kerry by 71%. It is strongly Democratic and no one expects it to change hands. The state Democratic Party has endorsed state Representative Keith Ellison, while Sabo has endorsed his Chief of Staff, Mike Erlandson. Incidentally, Ellison is a Muslim and if elected, would be the first Muslim to serve in Congress. While the Republicans have said they will contest the seat by running a "fun, spirited campaign", they have openly admitted doubts that they will capture it in the Democratic stronghold of Minneapolis.[14]
  • Minnesota's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Mark Kennedy (R) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. The sixth district is located in the northern suburbs of St. Paul and Minneapolis and extending northwest to St. Cloud. The Independence Party of Minnesota candidate for the House seat is student and political newcomer John Binkowski, a longtime resident of St. Mary's Point. The Republican nominee for the House seat is State Senator Michele Bachmann, an outspoken social conservative. Patty Wetterling, who mustered 46% against Kennedy as the Democratic candidate in 2004, is the Democratic nominee again. She originally stated her intent to make a second try for the House seat; then campaigned for the United States Senate instead; upon abruptly dropping out of the Senate race, she re-launched a second campaign for the Sixth District House seat. At the party's nominating convention she defeated former Blaine mayor Elwyn Tinklenberg who is also a former minister opposed to abortion and gun control. Tinklenberg had entered the race only after receiving Wetterling's assurance that she would not be running, and he was supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which considered him to be more electable due to his moderate views. Now the liberal Watterling has to win over Tinklenberg's former supporters, some of whom are angry about her going back on her word. The northern Twin Cities suburbs that dominate the Sixth District are understood to have been the politically quirky heart of Jesse Ventura's success at the expense of the two major parties. This district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.
  • Minnesota's 8th congressional district— Sixteen Term Incumbent Jim Oberstar (D) has had little trouble for re-election ever since he's won his first term, and while the district has been relatively safe and hasn't had a Republican represent it since 1947, Oberstar faces a potential challenge from former Republican U.S. Senator Rod Grams.

Mississippi

  • Mississippi's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Bennie Thompson (D) successfully faced an aggressive primary challenge from state Representative Chuck Espy, nephew of former Congressman and Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy, and won with 65% of the vote. In the general election, he is being challenged by Republican Tchula [15] Mayor Yvonne Brown. Both Espy and Brown have criticized Thompson for leaving the House Agriculture Committee. The district is over three-fifths African-American and solidly Democratic, though Republicans occasionally win local elections in the area.

Montana

  • Montana's at-large congressional district– Although incumbent Dennis Rehberg (R) won with 64% of the vote in 2004 and is generally popular, he is considered to be potentially vulnerable due to Montana having swung over to the Democratic Party in 2004, electing Brian Schweitzer as Governor as well handing control of the State Legislature over to the Democrats. Rehberg also has to contend with the fact that Republican Senator Conrad Burns is facing an extremely tough re-election race. Rehberg's November opponent will be respectably-funded State Representative Monica Lindeen. Libertarian Mike Fellows has also qualified.

Nebraska

  • Nebraska's 1st congressional district— Republican incumbent Jeff Fortenberry won his first term in 2004 with 54% of the vote in the wake of the retirement of moderate and popular Republican congressman Doug Bereuter who was very critical of the religious right's growing influence on the party. Fortenberry is much more conservative than his predecessor, echoed by the fact that he won a relatively small margin of victory in a district that previously sent Bereuter to Congress by margins of 60%–65% and reelected George W. Bush by 66% in 2004. A Green Party activist drew away a full 3% of the vote last time, and Democrats are mobilizing for another campaign. Democrat and former Nebraska Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul filed papers in January 2006 and will face Fortenberry in November.[12]

Nevada

  • Nevada's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jim Gibbons (R) is running for governor. In 2004 he was reelected with 67% of the vote. His wife, state Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons, is running for his seat, as is Secretary of State Dean Heller and conservative state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. The district, which encompasses the vast majority of rural Nevada, is solidly Republican (since its creation in 1983 it has never elected a Democrat to represent it). Even so, in national elections the district tends to vote for the party that is favored by the national political climate, which is trending Democratic thus far. In addition, Democratic candidate Jill Derby of northern Nevada, who has served on the University Board of Regents, has the advantage of running unopposed, while the three Republicans are engaged in a very competitive primary that will force them to spend money. According to the Reno Gazette-Journal in May 2006, polls were 30% for Derby, 35% for Dawn Gibbons (wife of the current Congressman Jim Gibbons) and 35% undecided.[16]

New Hampshire

The primary is on September 12, 2006.

  • New Hamsphire's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Charles Bass (R) is in a state that is trending towards the Democratic Party, in the 2004 Presidential race the Democrats managed to win New Hampshire's electoral votes as well as capture a highly contested Governor's Mansion. Bass remains popular, however, winning reelection in 2004 with 58% percent of the vote while his district was won by John Kerry 52% to 47%. Bass is a self-described political moderate, and is being challenged in the primary by Berlin Mayor Bob Danderson, who stands out in contrast to some of Bass's more liberal views, such as opposition to drilling for oil in ANWR. The likely Democratic nominee is the 2004 challenger Paul Hodes, an attorney. A UNH poll from May 4, 2006 shows Hodes a lot closer to Bass than expected, 35% to Bass' 42%.

New Jersey

  • New Jersey's 3rd congressional district— Jim Saxton (R) won with 63% of the vote in 2004 in a district that George W.Bush carried by a 167,254 -159,041 plurality over John Kerry. Democrats thought in 2000 they had a tough opponent for Saxton in Cherry Hill (the district's largest community) Mayor Susan Bass Levin who raised and spent substantially, but Saxton won by 58% Despite his easy re-election in 2000 ,some liberals think the mainstream Republican Saxton has never faced any strong competition, and also consider his views ultra-conservative and believe the district is trending Democratic, therefore, by their measure he potentially could have a tough time being re-elected. Republicans are more sanguine as to his chances, as Ocean County was carried handily by Bush and losing GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug Forrester. The district runs from the central shore of New Jersey through Burlington County and into the Philadelphia suburbs. Running on the Democratic side is Rich Sexton, an Attorney, a 20 Year Veteran and Officer in the Navy, and a Fighting Dem.
  • New Jersey's 5th congressional district— Scott Garrett (R) won with 58% of the vote against an underfunded Anne Wolfe in 2004 in what is normally a Republican district. His strongly conservative views have also been the subject of some controversy. Garret was one of only a few Republicans to vote against the emergency aid to Hurricane Katrina victims. Democrat Paul Aronsohn is planning to challenge Garrett and with more support from the Democrats as well as several towns within the district won by Corzine in the governor's race, this could be a pickup opportunity. Garrett is likely also to face questions about why he opposed renewing the Voting Rights Act and other controversial votes he made. This district gave George W. Bush a 184,530- 137,019 pluraility over John Kerry in 2004 and the district was one of two New Jersey districts carried by Bob Dole in 1996 when he was crushed in the Garden State.
  • New Jersey's 7th congressional district— Mike Ferguson (R) won with 57% of the vote in the 2004 election against Stephen Brozak. His recent perceived opposition to the "morning after pill" may become an issue for him in a district thst is supportive of social moderates like Thomas Kean, Jr., a local state senator. This district voted for Bush by 1 point in 2000 and his plurality increased to a 164,176-144,767 margin in 2004, however. State Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D) will face Ferguson in 2006.
  • New Jersey's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Bob Menendez (D) was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Governor-elect Jon Corzine, leaving his House seat vacant. The district, situated between New York City and Newark and includes Bayonne, Jersey City, West New York, and Hoboken, is heavily Democratic. State Assembly Speaker Albio Sires easily won the Democratic primary and faces Republican community activist John Guarini in the general election. Ironically, Sires started his political career as a Republican and protoge of former Governor Thomas Kean, while Guarini is the son of former Democratic Congressman Frank Guarini, Menendez's predecessor in Congress. Sires has said that he would be willing to consider drilling in the ANWR to help reduce oil and gasoline prices.

The recent budget disaster and Governor Jon Corzine's tax and budget proposals have not been well received. [17]

New Mexico

  • New Mexico's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Heather Wilson (R) has routinely managed difficult reelections since 1998, winning in 2004 by a 55% to 45% margin. But in 2006 she will face Democrat Patricia Madrid, New Mexico's Attorney General, who is barred from seeking a third term in that position. Madrid will undoubtedly be a stronger and more recognized candidate than previous challengers to Wilson and is also well-funded. The district, centered in Albuquerque, is very competitive; it was narrowly won by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.

New York

The primary is on September 12, 2006.

  • New York's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Peter King (R) was elected for his sixth term by a healthy margin in 2004, 63% to 37%, however King is the only Republican congressman left on Long Island, where Republicans once were the majority party. Although King has broken with his party on a few key issues, he is potentially vulnerable in a district that is increasingly moderate to liberal. Nassau County Legislator David Mejias announced his candidacy on May 25 [18] and will be King's strongest opponent in years.
  • New York's 13th congressional district- Since easily winning a special election in 1997, Republican incumbent Vito Fossella had long been reelected without trouble in this district, based in Staten Island and the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn. But in 2004, his share of the vote dropped dramatically against an underfunded opponent. This caught the attention of Democrats, who are now making this race a priority. Lawyer and Bay Ridge community leader Steve Harrison [20] is the Democratic candidate. A recent New York Daily News[21]weeklong expose on alleged Fossella campaign finance and constituent mailing rule violations should help Harrison in what has long been a Republican stronghold despite having more registered Democrats than Republicans. However, many of the registered Democrats are Democrats In Name Only (DINOS)who generally vote Republican. Fossella is the only Republican in New York City's Congressional delegation.
  • New York's 19th congressional district- Incumbent Sue Kelly (R) has rarely faced stiff competition since her initial election in 1994, but she has drawn six Democratic challengers this year. They include ex-Republican Judith Aydelott, former Orleans singer/songwriter John Hall, Yorktown councilman Jim Martorano, fundraiser/consultant Darren Rigger, Ben Shuldiner (2005's Jefferson Award recipient as the Greatest Public Servant in America under the age of 35), and high school principal Gary Suraci. The 19th is an increasingly-Democratic distict, and Democrats were extremely successful in town and county election in November 2005. Bush did narrowly carry the district in 2004, however. As of the last FEC filing, Aydelott was the leading fundraiser with Shuldiner in second. In May and June, the Democratic party in each of the five counties that have segments within the district held nominating conventions. Hall won his home county (Dutchess) as well as Orange and Rockland, while Rigger won the Putnam nomination and Martorano took the Westchester nod. As a result, there remains no clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
  • New York's 20th congressional district— Incumbent John E. Sweeney (R) has never really had any election troubles up until now. Sweeney has faced controversy over his reportedly drunken appearance at a registered party at a fraternity at Union College on April 22, 2006; over a remark he made about his Democratic opponent, Kirsten Gillibrand, saying that she was "a pretty face"; and over a January 2006 all-expenses paid weekend with family, friends, staff, and lobbyists at Lake Placid, New York. This rural and suburban district is among the more Republican in the Northeast, however, and Sweeney is not a strong conservative. A June Zogby poll published in the Albany Times-Union showed Sweeney holding a 51% to 27% lead over Gillibrand. Libertarian Eric Sundwall and Liberal Party candidate Morris Guller are also challenging Sweeney. (For more details, see New York 20th congressional district election, 2006)
  • New York's 21st congressional district— Incumbent Michael R. McNulty (D) was elected for his ninth term in 2004 over Republican challenger Warren Redlich. Redlich is running again in 2006, after getting 5 points more than the last 7 challengers (30% instead of 25%) with little money. While the district is majority Democrat, Republicans have been known to do well here in other races. Redlich's campaign theme is "Stop Wasting Money", and is critical of not only Democrats like McNulty, but also of Republicans including Bush and Pataki for their spending. With many libertarian ties, Redlich has been endorsed by the Republican Liberty Caucus and the Libertarian Party.
  • New York's 24th congressional district— Incumbent Sherwood Boehlert (R) has announced his retirement after twenty-four years, making this a seat of considerable focus for the democrats in the follow up to the mid terms. Boehlert is considered a moderate republican, and the district is considered to be a swing district. George Bush won this district by 53% in the 2004 election, but by 3,000 votes, in the 2000 presidential election. The likely Republican nominee will be state Senator Ray Meier, while the likely Democratic nominee will be Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri, but both face primary opponents. [22]
  • New York's 25th congressional district— Incumbent James T. Walsh (R), ran unopposed in 2004 and while the Syracuse-based district hasn't had a Democrat represent it since 1971, John Kerry won the district in 2004 by 2.5% points. Thus, Walsh had the dubious distinction of being the only Republican to win unopposed and not have George W. Bush win his district. Democrats are fielding at least two candidates in the Sept. 12 primary: former congressional aide Dan Maffei and lawyer Paloma Capanna.
  • New York's 26th congressional district— Incumbent Tom Reynolds (R), the National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman, faces a rematch with local industrialist and Veteran Jack Davis in the 26th District. While the district leans substantially Republican, Reynolds was held to 55% of the vote in 2004 by political neophyte Davis who has used the intervening time to build a political base. He will campaign on Reynolds' support of free-trade which he claims has cost the district thousands of well-paying jobs. Reynolds is one of the Republican party's premiere fund-raisers and Davis is independently wealthy promising that this will be an expensive campaign
  • New York's 29th congressional district— Freshman incumbent Randy Kuhl (R) Kuhl was elected with 50% in a three way race in 2004. He faces a potentially strong challenge from former Navy Officer Eric Massa who is a long-time friend of 2004 presidential candidate Gen. Wesley Clark. Massa has been an extremely adept fundraiser and has become a darling of the netroots with numerous favorable articles on popular progressive weblogs such as dailykos.com and mydd.com. In March, President Bush visited the district, in part as a boost to Kuhl's re-election campaign.

Two factors impact all New York races. First, Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton are prohibitive favorites to win easy statewide victories for Governor and Senator. This should help Democrats. Offsetting this is the congressional map. The 2002 reapportionment was perceived by many to be a bipartisan incumbent protection plan. Many of the Republican-held seats gave George W. Bush a plurality in the 2000 election, when he lost statewide by a a 25% margin.

North Carolina

  • North Carolina's 8th congressional district— Robin Hayes (R) was elected for a fourth term in 2004 by a 56% to 44% vote. His opponent, Beth Troutman, was a production assistant on the TV show The West Wing with no prior experience in office and with only a tiny fraction of the funding Hayes had. For a three-term Republican incumbent with substantial funding, in a Republican-leaning district against such an opponent, 56% is a less than spectacular margin. The district consists of a large portion of southern North Carolina east of Charlotte. Democrats have made an issue of Hayes' vote in favor of CAFTA, which was seen as threatening to the area's textile industry. Hayes' vote came after his stating he was "flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed" to the bill and pressure by the Bush administration. Hayes also received the second largest amount of money among all Congressional candidates from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Hayes has refused to return the $47,000 he received from the former House Majority Leader's political action committee, despite calls from Democrats to do so. He faces Larry Kissell, a school teacher from Biscoe, NC, who is running a largely grassroots campaign

North Dakota

  • North Dakota's at-large congressional district— Incumbent Earl Pomeroy (D) has won reelection by varying margins against widely differing opponents since his first election in 1992. In 2002, he had his toughest race ever, winning by winning by 52% to 48% against then-state Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh who is now an Associate Justice on the North Dakota Supreme Court. In 2004, he was reelected with little trouble. This year, he will be challenged by farmer Matt Mechtela, a former President of the North Dakota Soybean Council. Pomeroy is favored to win again, though he is not assured of reelection.

Ohio

  • Ohio's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jean Schmidt (R) was elected by special election to replace the seat vacated by Congressman Rob Portman. She narrowly defeated Democrat Paul Hackett in a largely Republican district. Recent June 2006 polling conducted by Momentum Analysis shows Congresswoman Schmidt tied at 44% with Democratic challenger Dr. Victoria Wulsin. The same poll also showed Wulsin leading Schmidt in Hamilton County, the largest county of the district, by a margin of 50% to 37%. Many have stated that this polling is a surprise but could be the result of press coverage regarding Congresswoman Schmidt's November 2005 House floor remarks about Congressman John Murtha (D-PA).
  • Ohio's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Michael Oxley (R) is retiring after twenty-five years. The district is located in much of northwestern Ohio and is heavily Republican, having not elected a Democrat to represent the area since 1936. Republican state Senator James D. "Jim" Jordan won the primary comfortably and is the overwhelming favorite in the general election against his poorly-financed Democratic opponent, local attorney Richard E. Siferd.
  • Ohio's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Ted Strickland (D) did not run for reelection; he is the Democratic nomineee for Governor of Ohio. The district, stretching across Ohio's eastern edge, from the Kentucky border to the Pennsylvania border, is marginal and should be highly competitive. Both parties' choices have been damaged by self-inflicted blunders. Republican state House Speaker Pro Tempore Chuck Blasdel failed to pay property taxes on two defunct businesses he once owned, while Democratic state Senator Charlie Wilson was embarrassed after failing to submit the 50 valid signatures for his ballot petition, and had to wage a costly write-in campaign to be his party's nominee.[14] But Wilson made a major comeback when his write-in campaign earned him 67% of the vote in the primary. Bladsel won 49% in a three-way primary. Wilson is now the front-runner in the general election, though not a shoo-in.
  • Ohio's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) did not run for reelection; he is the Democratic nomineee against incumbent Republican Senator Mike DeWine. Brown's district, in the Lorain/Akron area, is heavily blue-collar and has a strong pro-labor Democratic tilt. However, Republicans appear to have scored a recruiting coup with the candidacy of Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin, a popular figure in a city that gave George W. Bush only 27% of the vote. Normally, Democrats would have very little trouble holding this district. But Foltin's personal base in a Democratic stronghold gives Republicans a glimmer of hope. Republican hopes stemmed in part on dividing the Democratic vote by getting an Independent candidate, Tracy Kennedy, to run. The Republican Chairman for the city of Lorain, David Arredondo, circulated petitions to get her on the ballot. Local Republicans are hoping on capitalizing on the popularity of Foltin in Lorain and their attempt to split the Democratic vote with the introduction of an independent candidate. Former state Representative Betty Sutton is the Democratic nominee and while she generates little excitement, she is a very viable contender. However, she won only after a very nasty multi-candidate primary and one of her defeated opponents, former Congressman Tom Sawyer, has not only refused to endorse her but filed a campaign finance violation complaint with the Federal Election Commission.
  • Ohio's 15th congressional district— This district takes in much of Columbus, and Deborah Pryce (R), Chair of the Congressional Republican Conference, has been reelected without incident for over a decade. But the toxic unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft and perhaps Pryce's close ties to the Republican leadership give Democrats a potential opening. She is being challenged by Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, possibly her strongest opponent to date.
  • Ohio's 18th congressional district— Although incumbent Robert W. Ney (R) has continuously won this district since 1994, he has a less than stellar ethics record, having admitted involvement with the Jack Abramoff's scandal and has been identified as the unnamed representative implicated by Abramoff's plea bargain. Ney and two of his staff have been subpoenaed, and several senior staff have quit. Zack Space, a popular figure from Dover was a surprise winner for the Democratic nomination. Located in southeastern Ohio and including St. Clairsville and Zanesville, this district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. Currently, Space leads Ney by a small margin.

The Ohio races will all be impacted to some extent by the astonishing unpopularity of outgoing Republican Governor Bob Taft, who faced numerous corruption scandals in recent years. It is possible other long time incumbents could be in some risk. 30 plus year 16th District incumbent Ralph Regula barely won his Republican primary in the Canton area against a newcomer, for example.

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

  • Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district— Jim Gerlach (R) won reelection by a 51% to 49% margin in 2004 and represents a very competitive district in suburban Philadelphia. Lois Murphy, who was narrowly defeated by him in 2004, is running again. Gerlach also faces questions concerning over $30,000 he has received for his campaigns from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's ARMPAC, which has been involved in an alleged money laundering scheme. Democrats have criticized Gerlach for not returning the disputed money or donating it to charity, although he has stated that he would give the money away if DeLay is convicted. In July Gerlach opened his media campaign with a TV ad criticising President Bush's immigration proposals.
  • Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district— Curt Weldon (R) won reelection with 59% of the vote in 2004, but represents a Democratic-leaning district that incorporates much of Democratic-leaning Delaware County in suburban Philadelphia. He is facing retired 3-Star Navy Admiral Joe Sestak(D). Weldon caused controversy while campaigning when he questioned Sestak's dedication to living in the district because his family lives in the Washington suburbs and he did not send his daughter to a Pennsylvania hospital for clinical treatment. Sestak denounced Weldon for his statement in light of the fact that his four-year-old daughter is suffering from a malignant brain tumor and even Weldon's fellow Republicans were embarrassed by his remarks.[25] Sestak has also proven to be a capable fundraiser, which is one reason why CQPolitics, in July, changed their rating on this race from "Republican Favored" to the more competitive "Leans Republican." [26]. See Pennsylvania 7th congressional district election, 2006
  • Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district— Mike Fitzpatrick (R) won in 2004, but his district, based in suburban Bucks County, is considered politically moderate. In 2004 he defeated Democrat Virginia "Ginny" Schrader by a margin of 56% to 42%. Fitzpatrick's views, especially on abortion, are more conservative than those of most people in the Philadelphia suburbs, and that may be an issue for him in 2006. Iraq War Veteran (82nd Airborne Division) Patrick Murphy won the Democratic primary in May and is already getting more support from the national Democratic Party than Schrader did in 2004.
  • Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district— Don Sherwood (R) has strong backing as a result of redistricting, and he won reelection without opposition in 2002 and 2004, but recently was involved in an affair and physical abuse scandal with Cynthia Ore which brought on a $5.5 million lawsuit. On November 8, 2005 the two settled out of court for an undisclosed amount. He was expected to win the Republican primary easily over teacher Kathy Scott, as she had very little money or campaign staff, but she polled a surprising 44% of the vote against him. His critics claim this is proof of weakness and that professor and Naval Reserve Officer Chris Carney, his Democratic opponent, has a shot at winning in November.

South Carolina

  • South Carolina's 5th congressional district— John Spratt (D) is a twelve-term Democrat in an increasingly Republican district. George W. Bush increased his margin of victory in 2004 in the district from 55% to 57%, and Spratt in the past is known to have felt the heat of some very close races (52% in 1994, 56% in 1996). However, of late, he has only faced marginal Republican opposition. This year he is facing popular conservative state Representative Ralph Norman. Norman has been successful in fundraising and will mount a full scale campaign in the Autumn.

Tennessee

The primary is on August 3, 2006.

Texas

  • Texas's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Ted Poe (R) unseated Democrat Nick Lampson in 2004 after heavy redistricting changed the political landscape; Poe won with 55% of the vote. His opponent in November will be underfunded Democrat Gary Binderim, a water utility manager and community activist, who is making an issue of Poe's party-line votes (calculated to have lined up with Republican leadership 96% of the time), as well as Poe's refusal to return thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Nevertheless, CQPolitics rates this seat as "Safe Republican." George W. Bush received 63% of the vote in the district in both 2000 and 2004. [28] Libertarian Justo Perez also qualified for the November ballot.
  • Texas's 10th congressional district— Incumbent freshman Michael McCaul (R-Austin) will face 2004 Libertarian presidential nominee Michael Badnarik. Vietnam veteran Ted Ankrum of Houston is running as the Democratic nominee. McCaul was elected with no Democratic opposition in 2004, when the Libertarian candidate captured 15% of the vote. (It should be noted that no Libertarian candidate in the state has received more than 4% when running against candidates of both major parties.) The 10th district spans a huge swath of southeast and central Texas from eastern Austin to Harris County west of Houston.
  • Texas's 17th congressional district— Incumbent Chet Edwards (D) won reelection by a 51% to 48% margin in 2004 after the 2003 Texas redistricting changed his exurban Central Texas district substantially and made it more Republican. He won despite the fact that Bush won the district by a whopping 40% margin. His district includes Waco and Crawford, the location of George W. Bush's ranch. In 2004, Edwards was helped by the fact that his opponent, then-state Representative Arlene Wohlgemuth, was nominated only after a nasty, expensive primary. In 2006, he is being challenged by Van Taylor, an attorney and Iraq War veteran from a locally prominent family.
  • Texas's 21st congressional district— Incumbent Lamar S. Smith (R) who is best known for his reportedly lavish style of living, ties to Karl Rove, support for government surveillance. and for saying "Liberals can easily and accurately be painted as opposing enforcement."[29] In the 2006 election Smith will face Veteran and college administrator John Courage (D)[30] Smith has previously had no problem holding this Republican seat since the 1980's, though.
  • Texas's 22nd congressional district— Retiring Incumbent Tom DeLay (R) had been facing mounting ethical challenges and corruption charges through 2005 and early 2006. He won reelection by a surprisingly small 55% to 41% margin in 2004, even though George W. Bush carried the suburban Houston district, which includes several heavily Republican areas such as Sugar Land, Clear Lake City, and portions of Pasadena and Pearland, with 64% of the vote. On September 28, 2005, DeLay was indicted by a grand jury in Travis County, Texas. On March 7, 2006, Delay won a 4-way Republican primary for his district with only 62% of the vote. As a result of these challenges, he felt forced to step down from his post as House Majority Leader. In announcing his plans to resign and abandon reelection, Delay noted his poor poll showing and the constant criticisms he was expecting. As Texas law generally prohibits replacement of a party nominee who withdraws but permits replacement of one who is ineligible, Delay announced that he was moving to Virginia to make himself ineligible for reelection. "Those polls showed him beating Democrat Nick Lampson in the general election but in a race that would be too close for comfort," DeLay said. [31] [32].The Republican hold on district will face a strong challenge from former Rep. Nick Lampson, a Democrat whose district was dismantled during the 2003 mid-decade redistricting engineered by DeLay. Lampson's former district contained much of the eastern area of DeLay's present district. Former Rep. Steve Stockman, a conservative Republican, was planning to run for the seat as an independent, but failed to obtain enough valid signatures to be placed on the ballot. On June 9, 2006, DeLay officially resigned, vacating the district's House seat; a special election is possible, but Governor Rick Perry appears to be planning to leave the seat vacant until the general election. The decision by Republican leaders in Fort Bend, Brazoria, Harris and Galveston counties to select a new Republican nominee to replace DeLay was blocked by a federal judge who ordered on July 5th that DeLay remain on the November ballot. However, Republicans are appealing the decision to a higher court, with Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, who previously sent out recorded telephone messages encouraging Republicans to vote for DeLay, now calling for DeLay to be replaced on the November ballot. Following a recent straw poll, the leading candidate to replace DeLay is Sugar Land mayor David Wallace.

Though unlikely to be a factor, Texas elections could also be impacted by the five way Governor's race involving incumbent Republican Rick Perry, Democratic ex-Congressman Chris Bell, Libertarian sales consultantJames Werner, and two high-profile independents, Republican comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn and country music singer Kinky Friedman. Perry currently leads with 40% of the vote, with Friedman, Strayhorn and Bell each grabbing around 20% apiece.

It should also be noted that the U.S. Supreme Court in July ordered the redrawing of the 23rd District in response to a redistricting lawsuit. Whether new lines take effect prior to the election, and the effect on adjacent districts such as the 21st and the 28th, awaits further court action.

Utah

  • Utah's 2nd congressional district- Although incumbent Jim Matheson (D) won re-election in 2004 by a margin of 13%, his district is in a heavily Republican state. The district includes some Democratic areas in Utah, such has the wealthy California transplant filled Summit County [citation needed], the liberal communities of Grand County, the large Greek communities of Carbon County, the Navajos of San Juan County, and heavily Democratic Salt Lake City. Matheson is a regular target of the GOP every election. State Representative LaVar Christensen (R) of Draper, a small affluent suburb of Salt Lake City, is running in the district. However, the most circulated daily newspaper in Utah, The Salt Lake Tribune, has characterized him as too extreme for the area. For example Christensen was one of two major sponsors of a bill that amended Utah's Constitution to ban same-sex marriage, the amendment was rejected by two-thirds of Summit County, half of Grand County, and only passed by 4% in Salt Lake County, while the state as a whole averaged 66%, with the most supportive areas to banning such marriages being located in the first and third district, not the second. Matheson has approval ratings in the high 70s, the highest for any elected official in Utah.
  • Utah's 3rd congressional district- Congressman Chris Cannon has represented this district for ten years, but found himself in a competitive primary, just as he had in 2004. In a campaign that focused almost exclusively on the immigration issue, Businessman John Jacob repeatedly attacked Cannon for his support for a guest worker program. In May 2006, at the state GOP convention, Jacob surprised Cannon by winning 52 percent of the delegate ballots. "Cannon’s 48 percent showing was especially poor, given that the ballots were cast mainly by the party insiders who dominate such conventions. (A Jacob victory with 60 percent would have denied Cannon the opportunity to wage a primary campaign.)" [33]. The Republican primary was held on June 27, 2006. While polls showed a close race [34], in the June Republican primary, Cannon received 32,306 votes (55.8%) and Jacob received 25,589 votes (44.2%). Cannon will face Democrat Christian Burridge, a lawyer, in November.

Vermont

  • Vermont's at-large congressional district — Incumbent Bernie Sanders (I), a self-described socialist who represents the entire state of Vermont, plans to run for the Senate seat being vacated by fellow Independent Jim Jeffords. Vermont state Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Welch (D-Windsor County), the expected Democratic nominee, will face the winner of the Republican primary on September 12, 2006). Former Vermont Adjutant General Martha Rainville, Major General, USANG (ret) and Vermont State Senator Mark Shepard, (R-Bennington County) are running for the Republican nomination. Welch was helped when state Representative David Zuckerman decided not to wage a third-party campaign. Keith Stern, a businessman and zoning board member from Springfield, is running as an Independent. Jane Newton, a retired nurse, is running on the socialist Liberty Union line.

Virginia

Virginia U.S. House election, 2006

Washington

Main article: Washington United States House elections, 2006

West Virginia

  • West Virginia's 1st congressional district— For many years, Congressman Alan Mollohan (D) has won reelection without any difficulty, and often without major party opposition. But this year, he's come under scrutiny after it was revealed that non-profit groups who received federal earmarks sponsored by him were staffed by friends and that he may have financially benefitted from some of the earmarks. The national media has pointed out that his net worth expanded from some $630,000 to several million in a few years and his opponents are charging conflict of interest. The bad press caused his fellow Democrats to compel him to resign his position as ranking Democrat on the House Ethics Committee. He has a credible opponent in state Delegate Chris Wakim, a tavern owner and Persian Gulf War veteran.
  • West Virginia's 2nd congressional district— Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito (R) has been a popular vote getter in this Charleston based district, but in traditionally Democratic West Virginia, a Republican can't take reelection for granted. In fact, her margin in 2004 slipped somewhat against a second-tier opponent. This year she faces attorney Mike Callaghan, a former state Democratic Party Chairman. Capito is well funded and popular, but with Bush's popularity not high, she can't take anything for granted.

Wisconsin

The primary is on September 12, 2006

  • Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district— This district, in southern and western Wisconsin, includes some conservative-leaning rural areas, for whom corn is a pivotal campaign issue. Incumbent Ron Kind (D) won the 2004 election by an uncomfortably modest margin of 56% to 44% against State Senator and former real estate agent Dale Schultz, as the state picked John Kerry for President. The western edge of the district is rapidly gaining population in the form of exurbs spilling over from the Twin Cities, Minnesota area. Fast-growing exurban areas are notorious for trending Republican. Kind faces a minor primary challenge from Iraq war opponent Chip DeNure. The November ballot will pit Kind against Republican Paul Nelson.
  • Wisconsin's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Mark Green (R) — Green is running for governor like many of his colleagues, and his seat, in rural northeastern Wisconsin, is Republican-leaning, though has elected a Democratic congressman as recently as 1996 and is centered around the cities of Green Bay and Appleton. State Assembly Speaker John Gard and state Assemblywoman Terri McCormick are seeking the seat as Republicans, with Gard the strong favorite; business consultant Jamie Wall, former De Pere Mayor & Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum, and allergist Steve Kagen are seeking the seat as Democrats. Nusbaum won name I.D. in the district as Brown County executive and De Pere mayor, while Kagen and Wall have personal wealth to fall back on. Both parties have pitfalls in this election: GOP frontrunner Gard is popular with the base, while the Democrats have only held the district for a single term since the 1980s.

Wyoming

  • Wyoming's at-large congressional district— Barbara Cubin (R) is running for reelection. Wyoming, generally considered one of the strongest, if not the strongest, Republican stronghold in the country, gave her a surprisingly small margin of victory in 2004 with 55% of the vote, despite George W. Bush winning Wyoming by a landslide 69% in the 2004 Presidential Election. She also had a difficult primary that year. Her Democratic opponent this year will be Teton County School Board Chairman Gary Trauner. His campaign was helped when a May 8 poll by Rasmussen Reports showed Cubin leading Trauner by only 47% to 43%, closer than even Democrats had expected. And the poll is hard to attack as it also shows Senator Craig Thomas leading his Democratic opponent by 64% to 25%. Popular Democratic incumbent Governor Dave Freudenthal is also up for reelection, though it is not known what kind of effect there will be on the state's sole Congressional election.

References

  1. ^ Projections based on analysis in The Politics of Congressional Elections, by Gary Jacobson
  2. ^ nytimes.com
  3. ^ "Tough path may follow Doolittle's easy victory," The Sacramento Bee, June 8, 2006
  4. ^ "Democrats say they may target Doolittle," The Sacramento Bee, May 18, 2006
  5. ^ California's 4th district primary election results
  6. ^ California's 11th district primary election results
  7. ^ [1]
  8. ^ "Some see cracks in Pombo's big House race win," The Sacramento Bee, June 8, 2006
  9. ^ "Poll Shows That If Election Were Held Today A Majority Would Vote Against Pombo," Defenders Of Wildlife Action Fund, May 10, 2006
  10. ^ foxnews.com
  11. ^ foxnews.com
  12. ^ swingstateproject.com
  13. ^ hillnews.com
  14. ^ enquirer.com
  15. ^ timesnews.net

See also

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