Jump to content

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by TheCodeman4 (talk | contribs) at 02:08, 1 December 2020 (Turnout). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Main articles: 2020 United States presidential election and United States presidential elections in Iowa
2020 United States presidential election in Iowa
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout75.77%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Projected electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 897,672 759,061
Percentage 52.80% 44.65%
Preliminary County Results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Iowa
Federal government
U.S. Presidential elections
Presidential caucuses
Democratic
1976
1980
1984
1992
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
Republican
1980
1996
2000
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
Attorney General elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Territorial Council elections
Ballot measures
2020
Question 1
2022
Amendment 1
Cedar Rapids
Mayoral elections
Des Moines
Mayoral elections

The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Trump won the Hawkeye State 53% to 45%. Prior to this election most news organizations had considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup. Iowa's bellwether status diminished in this election. This was the first time since 2000 when Iowa did not back the candidate who won the presidential election, and also the first election since 1988 when a candidate from either party would win the state of Iowa while losing both the popular and electoral vote. Biden became the first Democratic nominee since 1976 to win the presidency without carrying Iowa, as well as the first since 1940 to win the presidency without carrying Dubuque County. Trump underperformed his 2016 margins in the Des Moines metro, Cedar Rapids metro, and western Iowa, the latter which borders Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, an electoral vote he won in 2016 but lost in 2020. However, he improved in northeast and south Iowa.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Iowa came from White Americans with no college degree, who comprised 62% of the electorate and supported Trump by 58%–40%. Trump swept all religious groups, garnering 66% of white Protestants, 54% of white Catholics, and 76% of white born-again/Evangelical Christians. 53% of voters believed Trump was better able to handle international trade.[3] Trump continued to win the cultural message among white voters.[4]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[5] Tossup October 6, 2020
Inside Elections[6] Tossup October 6, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] Lean R November 2, 2020
Politico[8] Tossup October 12, 2020
RCP[9] Tossup October 6, 2020
Niskanen[10] Tossup October 6, 2020
CNN[11] Tossup October 7, 2020
The Economist[12] Tossup October 6, 2020
CBS News[13] Tossup October 6, 2020
270towin[14] Tossup October 6, 2020
ABC News[15] Tossup October 6, 2020
NPR[16] Tossup October 9, 2020
NBC News[17] Tossup October 6, 2020
538[18] Lean R November 2, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win October 26 – Nov 2, 2020 November 2, 2020 46.2% 47.8% 6.0% Trump +1.6
Real Clear Politics October 21–30, 2020 November 2, 2020 45.8% 47.2% 7.0% Trump +1.4
FiveThirtyEight until November 1, 2020 November 2, 2020 46.1% 47.5% 6.4% Trump +1.4
Average 46.0% 47.5% 6.5% Trump +1.5

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling Nov 1–2, 2020 871 (V) – 48% 49% - - 2%[c] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,489 (LV) ± 3.5% 51%[d] 48% - - – –
Change Research Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 1,084 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 47% 3% 0% 2%[e] 1%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 853 (LV) ± 3.7% 48% 49% - - 3%[f] 0%
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 951 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 47% 3% 1% 1%[g] –
Emerson College Oct 29–31, 2020 604 (LV) ± 3.9% 49%[h] 47% - - 4% 0%
InsiderAdvantage/Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 30, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 46% 1% - – 6%
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register Oct 26–29, 2020 814 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 41% - - 8%[i] 2%[j]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 3,005 (LV) ± 2.5% 50% 49% - - - 2%
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–27, 2020 1,225 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 46% - - 1%[k] 6%
RABA Research/WHO13 News Oct 21–24, 2020 693 (LV) ± 4% 46% 50% - - 2%[l] 1%
Emerson College Oct 19–21, 2020 435 (LV) ± 4.7% 48%[m] 48% - - 4%[n] 0%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 15–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47%[o] 47% - - 2%[p] 4%
45%[q] 49% - - 2%[r] 4%
49%[s] 48% - - 2%[t] 4%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 18–20, 2020 753 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% 2% 1% 1%[u] 7%[v]
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 18–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 45% 2% - – 8%
Monmouth University Oct 15–19, 2020 501 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% 1% 0%[w] 2%[x] 2%
501 (LV)[y] 47% 50% - - – –
501 (LV)[z] 46% 51% - - – –
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America Oct 10–13, 2020 200 (LV) – 50% 44% - - – –
Data for Progress (D) Oct 8–11, 2020 822 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 47% 2% 0% – 3%
YouGov/CBS Oct 6–9, 2020 1,035 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 49% - - 2%[aa] 0%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[B] Oct 5–8, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 46%[ab] 47% - - 3%[ac] 4%[ad]
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 3–6, 2020 756 (LV) ± 3.9% 47% 48% - - 4%[ae] 1%
Quinnipiac University Oct 1–5, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 50% - - 2%[af] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,276 (LV) – 52% 46% - - – 2%
Data for Progress (D) Sep 23–28, 2020 743 (LV) ± 3.6% 47%[o] 44% 1% 1% – 6%
50%[ag] 45% - - – 5%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[C] Sep 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 47% - - – –
RABA Research/WHO13 News Sep 23–26, 2020 780 (LV) ± 4% 46% 48% - - 2%[ah] 4%
Monmouth University Sep 18–22, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 50% 44% 2% 0% 1%[ai] 2%
402 (LV) 49%[y] 46% 2% – 2%[aj] 2%
49%[z] 46% 2% – 2%[ak] 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 16–22, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.99% 42% 45% 2% 0% 1%[al] 10%[am]
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register Sep 14–17, 2020 658 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 47% - - 4%[an] 3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 45% - - 1%[ao] 6%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[B] Aug 30 – Sep 2, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 51%[ap] 43% 3% 1% – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 983 (LV) – 53% 46% - - – 2%
Monmouth University Jul 30 – Aug 3, 2020 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 48% 45% 3% - <1%[aq] 3%
401 (LV) 48%[ar] 46% 2% <1%[as] 3%
47%[at] 47% 2% 0%[au] 3%
Data for Progress Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 1,101 (LV) – 44%[o] 42% 3% 1% – 10%
46%[av] 45% - - – 9%
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America Jul 30–31, 2020 200 (LV) – 43% 49% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,095 (LV) – 54% 45% - - – 1%
RMG Research Jul 27–30, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 40% - - 7% 13%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[D] Jul 23–24, 2020 1,118 (V) – 48% 47% - - – 6%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[E] Jul 11–16, 2020 701 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 48% - - – 7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 455 (LV) – 50% 48% - - – 2%
Selzer/Des Moines Register Jun 7–10, 2020 674 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 43% - - 10%[aw] 3%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Jun 6–8, 2020 865 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% - - 7%[ax] 1%
Public Policy Polling/Emily's List[F] Jun 3–4, 2020 963 (V) – 48% 47% - - – 5%
Public Policy Polling[1] Apr 30 – May 1, 2020 1,222 (V) ± 2.8% 48% 46% - - – 6%
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Apr 13–16, 2020 500 (LV) – 48% 45% - - 1% 6%
Selzer/Des Moines Register Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 51% 41% - - – –
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 44% - - 5%[ay] 6%
Public Policy Polling Dec 29–31, 2019 964 (V) – 49% 46% - - – 5%
Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 49% 45% - - – 6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 44% - - 3% 5%
Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% - - – –
WPA Intelligence (R) Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 49% 44% - - – 5%
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 53% - - – –
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 51% - - – –
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53%[az] 34% – –
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 39% 7%[ba] 8%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Cory
Booker (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 48% –

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% 4%[bb] 7%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) – 48% 47% – 5%
Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 46% 45% – 9%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 41% 3% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kirsten
Gillibrand (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 54% 46% –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 54% 46% –
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47% –

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Other Undecided
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 41% 5%[bc] 8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47% –

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 41% – –
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 42% 4%[bd] 6%
Public Policy Polling Dec 29–31, 2019 964 (V) – 49% 44% – 7%
Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% – 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 43% 3% 4%
Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51% – –
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 51% – –
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 50% – –

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 52%[az] 40% – –
The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 42% 5%[be] 7%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) – 49% 44% – 7%
Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% ± 3% 7%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 40% 2% 7%
Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% – –
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 51% 49% – –
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 52% 48% – –
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Sherrod
Brown (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 55% 46% –

with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Nancy
Pelosi (D) 		Undecided
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 55% 45% –

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 46% 8% –

with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Howard
Schultz (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% 7% –
Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 40% 11% –

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United[G] Dec 13–15, 2019 944 (V) – 47% 49% 3%
Public Policy Polling Apr 29–30, 2019 780 (V) ± 3.5% 48% 48% –

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa[19]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		897,627 52.80% +1.65%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		759,061 44.65% +2.91%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen 		19,637 1.16% −2.62%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball 		3,210 0.19% N/A
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker 		3,075 0.18% −0.55%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr 		1,707 0.10% −0.24%
Write-in 6,509 0.38% -1.09%
Total votes 1,700,130

Caucuses

The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.[20]

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2020 Iowa Republican caucuses

Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.[21]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses § results.[edit]
county
Counties won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—100%
  •   Trump—≥95%
  •   Trump—90–95%
  •   Trump—85–90%
congressional district
Congressional districts won by these popular vote results
Map legend
  •   Trump—≥95%
2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses[22][23]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 31,421 97.14 39
Bill Weld 425 1.31 1
Joe Walsh 348 1.08 0
Other 151 0.47 0
Total 32,345 100% 40

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses

After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.[24]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses § IAresults.[edit]
2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses[25][26][27]
Candidate Initial
alignment 		Final
alignment[bf] 		State delegate
equivalents[bg] 		Pledged
national
convention
delegates[28][bh]
Votes % Votes % Number %
Pete Buttigieg 37,572 21.31 43,209 25.08 562.95 26.17 [bi]14
Bernie Sanders 43,581 24.71 45,652 26.50 562.02 26.13 [bj]12
Elizabeth Warren 32,589 18.48 34,909 20.26 388.44 18.06 [bk]8
Joe Biden 26,291 14.91 23,605 13.70 340.32 15.82 [bl]6
Amy Klobuchar 22,454 12.73 21,100 12.25 263.87 12.27 1
Andrew Yang 8,914 5.05 1,758 1.02 21.86 1.02
Tom Steyer 3,061 1.74 413 0.24 6.62 0.31
Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)[bm] 212 0.12 16 0.01 0.21 0.01
Tulsi Gabbard 341 0.19 16 0.01 0.11 0.01
Michael Bennet 164 0.09 4 0.00 0.00 0.00
Deval Patrick 9 0.01 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
John Delaney (withdrawn) 0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other 155 0.09 198 0.11 0.69 0.03
Uncommitted 1,009 0.57 1,420 0.82 3.73 0.17
Total[bn] 176,352 100% 172,300 100% 2,150.83 100% 41

Libertarian caucuses

The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.[31][32]

Election results by county.
  Jacob Hornberger
  Ken Armstrong
  Dan Behrman
  Lincoln Chafee
  Jo Jorgensen
  Adam Kokesh
  John McAfee
  Sam Robb
  Vermin Supreme
  Tie
  No votes
Iowa Libertarian presidential caucus, February 8, 2020[33]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jacob Hornberger 133 47.52%
Lincoln Chafee 36 12.77%
Jo Jorgensen 18 6.38%
Adam Kokesh 17 6.03%
Dan Behrman 14 4.96%
John McAfee 10 3.55%
Vermin Supreme 9 3.19%
Other (write-in) 8 2.84%
None of the above 8 2.84%
Sam Robb 7 2.48%
Max Abramson 6 2.13%
Mark Whitney 4 1.42%
Arvin Vohra 3 1.06%
Ken Armstrong 2 0.71%
Souraya Faas 2 0.71%
Benjamin Leder 1 0.35%
John Monds 1 0.35%
Total 281 100%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Don't recall" with 2%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  7. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  8. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  9. ^ "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  10. ^ Includes "Do not remember"
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  13. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  15. ^ a b c Standard VI response
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  17. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  19. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  22. ^ Includes "Refused"
  23. ^ No voters
  24. ^ "Another candidate" and "No one" with 1%
  25. ^ a b With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  26. ^ a b With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  27. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
  28. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  29. ^ "One of the other candidates" with 2%; West (B) with 1%
  30. ^ Includes "Refused"
  31. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  32. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  33. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  34. ^ "Other candidate" with 2%
  35. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "No one" with no voters
  36. ^ "Hawkins/Other" with 2%
  37. ^ "Hawkins/Other" with 2%
  38. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Would not vote with 0%
  39. ^ Includes "Refused"
  40. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  41. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  42. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  43. ^ "Other" and "No-one" with <1%
  44. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  45. ^ "Other" with <1%
  46. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  47. ^ "Other" with 0%
  48. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  49. ^ "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
  50. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
  51. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  52. ^ a b Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  53. ^ Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
  54. ^ Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
  55. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  56. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 2%
  57. ^ Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  58. ^ Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
  59. ^ The official results included four decimal digits.
  60. ^ In Iowa, the presidential caucuses only are the first determining step for the delegate distribution, the final step are the decisions on the district conventions and the much later state convention. According to the provisions set by the Iowa Democratic Party's "Delegate Selection Plan", statewide delegates preliminarily awarded to other candidates had to be reallocated at the state convention on June 13, as their pledged candidates had dropped out, while the already early decided district delegates remain fixed.
  61. ^ Due to his withdrawal in March, 2 of the 5 statewide delegates mathematically won by Buttigieg were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[28][29]
  62. ^ Due to his withdrawal in April, 3 of the 4 statewide delegates mathematically won by Sanders were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[28][29]
  63. ^ Due to her withdrawal in March, all of the 3 statewide delegates mathematically won by Warren were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.[28][29]
  64. ^ 8 of the 12 statewide delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg (2), Sanders (3) and Warren (3), who had withdrawn in the meantime, were reallocated to Biden as the sole remaining viable contender and were added to his own 2 statewide delegates at the state convention on June 13.[28][29]
  65. ^ Michael Bloomberg officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on November 24, 2019, but chose not to contest the first four nominating contests of the primary season, including the Iowa caucuses.[30]
  66. ^ Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.[26]
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  3. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  4. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  5. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  6. ^ Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates
  7. ^ End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Iowa Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  4. ^ "Down on the farm with Trump". Bleeding Heartland. April 16, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  6. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  7. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  8. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  9. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  10. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  11. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  12. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  14. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  15. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  16. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  17. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  19. ^ "Election Canvass Summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
  20. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 25, 2018). "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  21. ^ "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
  22. ^ "Iowa Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Iowa Republican caucuses results". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 12, 2022.
  24. ^ "Iowa caucus results: Buttigieg, Sanders in a near tie, with 100% of results published". USA TODAY. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
  25. ^ Lee, Jasmine C.; Lieberman, Rebecca; Aufrichtig, Aliza; Bloch, Matthew (February 4, 2020). "Live: Iowa Caucus Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved February 27, 2020.
  26. ^ a b "Iowa democratic Caucus Results". Des Moines Register. Retrieved July 15, 2021.
  27. ^ Levy, Adam; Merica, Dan (March 1, 2020). "Iowa Democratic Party certifies Buttigieg's Iowa lead amid Sanders challenge". CNN. Retrieved March 1, 2020.
  28. ^ a b c d e "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Iowa Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  29. ^ a b c d "Iowa Democratic Party Announces Delegation to National Convention". iowademocrats.org. June 13, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
  30. ^ Gonyea, Don (February 14, 2020). "Mike Bloomberg Storms Super Tuesday States, Pledging To 'Get It Done'". NPR. Retrieved December 12, 2021.
  31. ^ "Libertarian's announce caucus results". Knoxville Journal Express. February 10, 2020. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
  32. ^ McDaniel, Tiffany (February 10, 2020). "Low voter turnout at the Iowa Libertarian Party Caucus". The Oskaloosa Herald. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
  33. ^ Howe, Joseph (February 8, 2020). "Libertarian Party Of Iowa Presidential Caucus Winner And Results". Libertarian Party of Iowa. Retrieved February 8, 2020.

Further reading

Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa&oldid=991635608"