2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire
Turnout	%
Incumbent President; Donald Trump; Republican	; ;

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.^[1] New Hampshire voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Hampshire has 4 electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

Primary elections

The New Hampshire primary, traditionally the first, was held on February 11, 2020, roughly a week after the Iowa caucuses.^[3]

Republican primary

The New Hampshire Republican primary took place on February 11, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 85.6 percent of the vote, clinching all of the state's 22 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.^[4] Typically, the top candidates of the other major party receive a large number of write-in votes.

County won by these popular vote results:

Trump—85–90%

Trump—80–85%

Congressional district won by these popular vote results:

Trump—80–85%

2020 New Hampshire Republican primary^[5]^[6]
Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent)	129,734	84.42	22
Bill Weld	13,844	9.01	0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)	838	0.55	0
Mitt Romney (write-in)	632	0.41	0
Rocky De La Fuente	148	0.10	0
Robert Ardini	77	0.05	0
Bob Ely	68	0.04	0
Zoltan Istvan	56	0.04	0
Others / Write-in	2,339	1.52	0
Pete Buttigieg (write-in Democratic)	1,136	0.74	0
Amy Klobuchar (write-in Democratic)	1,076	0.70	0
Mike Bloomberg (write-in Democratic)	801	0.52	0
Bernie Sanders (write-in Democratic)	753	0.49	0
Tulsi Gabbard (write-in Democratic)	369	0.24	0
Joe Biden (write-in Democratic)	330	0.21	0
Tom Steyer (write-in Democratic)	191	0.12	0
Andrew Yang (write-in Democratic)	162	0.11	0
Elizabeth Warren (write-in Democratic)	157	0.10	0
Other write-in Democrats	963	0.63	0
Total	153,674	100%	22

Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 25.6 percent of the vote, ahead of second-place Pete Buttigieg, who received 24.3 percent of the vote. Both Sanders and Buttigieg received nine delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention. Amy Klobuchar finished in third place with 19.7 percent of the vote and earned six delegates. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden finished in fourth and fifth place, respectively, and each received zero delegates.^[7]

Popular vote share by county

Sanders—<30%

Sanders—30–40%

Buttigieg—<30%

Popular vote share by congressional district

Sanders—25–30%

2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary^[8]^[9]
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates^[10]^[11]
Bernie Sanders	76,384	25.60	9
Pete Buttigieg	72,454	24.28	9
Amy Klobuchar	58,714	19.68	6
Elizabeth Warren	27,429	9.19
Joe Biden	24,944	8.36
Tom Steyer	10,732	3.60
Tulsi Gabbard	9,755	3.27
Andrew Yang	8,312	2.79
Michael Bloomberg (write-in)^[9]^[12]	4,675	1.57
Deval Patrick	1,271	0.43
Michael Bennet	952	0.32
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	157	0.05
Joe Sestak (withdrawn)	152	0.05
Kamala Harris (withdrawn)	129	0.04
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	99	0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	83	0.03
John Delaney (withdrawn)	83	0.03
Steve Bullock (withdrawn)	64	0.02
Henry Hewes	43	0.01
Ben Gleib (withdrawn)	31	0.01
Other candidates / Write-in	^[a]665	0.22
Donald Trump (write-in Republican)^[9]	1,217	0.41
Bill Weld (write-in Republican)^[9]	17	0.01
Mitt Romney (write-in Republican)^[9]	10	0.00
Other write-in Republicans	5	0.00
Total	298,377	100%	24

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[13]	Lean D	July 23, 2020
Inside Elections^[14]	Lean D	July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[15]	Lean D	July 14, 2020
Politico^[16]	Lean D	July 6, 2020
RCP^[17]	Tossup	August 3, 2020
Niskanen^[18]	Likely D	July 26, 2020
CNN^[19]	Lean D	August 3, 2020
The Economist^[20]	Likely D	August 7, 2020
CBS News^[21]	Lean D	August 9, 2020
270towin^[22]	Lean D	August 2, 2020
ABC News^[23]	Lean D	July 31, 2020
NPR^[24]	Lean D	August 3, 2020
NBC News^[25]	Lean D	August 6, 2020
538^[26]	Lean D	August 14, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Other/Undecided ^[b]	Margin
270 to Win	July 16–28, 2020	August 04, 2020	53.0%	40.0%	7.0%	Biden +13.0
Real Clear Politics	January 20, 2020 - July 28, 2020	August 04, 2020	51.0%	41.7%	7.3%	Biden +9.3
FiveThirtyEight	until June 28, 2020	August 04, 2020	50.9%	41.7%	7.4%	Biden +9.2

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Other	Undecided
Sunday Express/Democracy Institute	Jul 29–31, 2020	400 (LV)	± 5.0%	46%	43%	–	11%
University of New Hampshire	Jul 16–28, 2020	1,890 (LV)	–	40%	53%	4%	3%
University of New Hampshire	Jun 18–22, 2020	936 (LV)	–	39%	52%	6%	3%
Saint Anselm College	Jun 13–16, 2020	1,072 (RV)	± 3%	42%	49%	5%	3%
University of New Hampshire	May 14–18, 2020	790 (LV)	–	46%	44%	5%	5%
Saint Anselm College	Apr 23–27, 2020	820 (RV)	± 3.4%	42%	50%	2%	7%
University of New Hampshire	Feb 19–25, 2020	569 (LV)	± 4.1%	46%	44%	8%	2%
AtlasIntel	Feb 8–10, 2020	1,100 (RV)	± 3%	46%	44%	11%	–
McLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal [1]	Feb 4–5, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%^[d]	45%	–^[e]	–^[f]
Marist College/NBC News	Jan 20–23, 2020	2,223 (RV)	± 2.6%	43%	51%	2%	5%
Emerson College	Nov 23–26, 2019	637 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	52%	–	–
Emerson College	Nov 23–26, 2019	547 (RV)	± 4.1%	42%	46%	–	13%
Saint Anselm College	Nov 13–18, 2019	512 (RV)	± 4.3%	43%	51%	–	6%
Emerson College	Sep 6–9, 2019	1,041	± 3.0%	45%	55%	–	–
Gravis Marketing	Aug 2–6, 2019	505	± 4.4%	40%	53%	–	7%
Emerson College	Feb 21–22, 2019	910	± 3.2%	45%	55%	–	–
American Research Group	Mar 21–27, 2018	1,365	± 3.0%	39%	53%	–	8%

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Bernie Sanders (D)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	Feb 19–25, 2020	571 (LV)	± 4.1%	46%	46%	6%	1%
AtlasIntel	Feb 8–10, 2020	1,100 (RV)	± 3%	47%	44%	9%	–
McLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal [2]	Feb 4–5, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%^[g]	45%	–^[h]	–^[i]
Marist College/NBC News	Jan 20–23, 2020	2,223 (RV)	± 2.6%	43%	51%	2%	4%
Emerson College	Nov 23–26, 2019	637 (RV)	± 3.8%	48%	52%	–	–
Emerson College	Nov 23–26, 2019	547 (RV)	± 4.1%	42%	49%	–	9%
Saint Anselm College	Nov 13–18, 2019	512 (RV)	± 4.3%	46%	49%	–	6%
Emerson College	Sep 6–9, 2019	1,041	± 3.0%	48%	53%	–	–
Gravis Marketing	Aug 2–6, 2019	505	± 4.4%	41%	51%	–	8%
Emerson College	Feb 21–22, 2019	910	± 3.2%	45%	55%	–	–
Praecones Analytica	Jan 16–21, 2019	593	± 5.3%	41%	54%	–	5%
American Research Group	Mar 21–27, 2018	1,365	± 3.0%	49%	45%	–	5%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Other	Undecided
AtlasIntel	Feb 8-10, 2020	1,100 (RV)	± 3%	46.8%	40.5%	–	12.7%
Marist College/NBC News	Jan 20–23, 2020	2,223 (RV)	± 2.6%	44%	48%	2%	5%
Inside Sources	Jan 16–21, 2020	593 (RV)	–	41%	54%	–	5%
Emerson College	Nov 23–26, 2019	637 (RV)	± 3.8%	51%	49%	–	–
Emerson College	Nov 23–26, 2019	547 (RV)	± 4.1%	43%	47%	–	10%
Saint Anselm College	Nov 13–18, 2019	512 (RV)	± 4.3%	46%	47%	–	7%
Emerson College	Sep 6–9, 2019	1,041	± 3.0%	51%	49%	–	–
Gravis Marketing	Aug 2–6, 2019	505	± 4.4%	44%	49%	–	7%
Emerson College	Feb 21–22, 2019	910	± 3.2%	48%	52%	–	–
Praecones Analytica	Jan 16–21, 2019	593	± 5.3%	41%	54%	–	5%
American Research Group	Mar 21–27, 2018	1,365	± 3.0%	50%	42%	–	9%

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Michael Bloomberg (D)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	Feb 19–25, 2020	561 (LV)	± 4.1%	47%	33%	16%	5%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Pete Buttegieg (D)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire	Feb 19–25, 2020	569 (LV)	± 4.1%	42%	48%	7%	3%
AtlasIntel	Feb 8–10, 2020	1,100 (RV)	± 3%	45.3%	46.1%	–	8.6%
Marist College/NBC News	Jan 20–23, 2020	2,223 (RV)	± 2.6%	41%	51%	1%	6%
Emerson College	Nov 23–26, 2019	637 (RV)	± 3.8%	41%	48%	–	–
Emerson College	Nov 23–26, 2019	547 (RV)	± 4.1%	41%	48%	–	11%
Saint Anselm College	Nov 13–18, 2019	512 (RV)	± 4.3%	42%	49%	–	9%
Gravis Marketing	Aug 2–6, 2019	505	± 4.4%	42%	49%	–	9%

Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Andrew Yang (D)	Undecided
Emerson College	November 23-26, 2019	637 (RV)	± 3.8%	51%	49%	–
Emerson College	November 23-26, 2019	547 (RV)	± 4.1%	42%	46%	12%
Emerson College	September 6–9, 2019	1,041	± 3.0%	46%	54%	–

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Cory Booker (D)	Undecided
Emerson College	Feb 21–22, 2019	910	± 3.2%	49%	51%	–

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Kamala Harris (D)	Undecided
Emerson College	September 6–9, 2019	1,041	± 3.0%	49%	51%	–
Gravis Marketing	August 2–6, 2019	505	± 4.4%	44%	47%	9%
Emerson College	Feb 21–22, 2019	910	± 3.2%	48%	52%	–

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Beto O'Rourke (D)	Undecided
Praecones Analytica	Jan 16–21, 2019	593	± 5.3%	41%	48%	12%

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Bernie Sanders (D)	Howard Schultz (I)	Undecided
Emerson College	Feb 21–22, 2019	910	± 3.2%	42%	48%	10%	–

with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Howard Schultz (I)	Undecided
Emerson College	Feb 21–22, 2019	910	± 3.2%	45%	44%	12%	–

with John Kasich and Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	John Kasich (R)	Joe Biden (D)	Undecided
American Research Group	Mar 21–27, 2018	1,365	± 3.0%	45%	46%	8%

with John Kasich and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	John Kasich (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Undecided
American Research Group	Mar 21–27, 2018	1,365	± 3.0%	52%	37%	11%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Generic Democrat	Other	Undecided
RKM Research and Communications Inc./Boston Herald/FPU/NBC10 [3]	Jan 29-Feb 1, 2020	892 (V)	–	36%	49%	9%^[j]	7%
Praecones Analytica	Aug 13–15, 2018	626	± 5.4%	38%	49%	–	13%

with Donald Trump, generic Democrat, and generic third party

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Generic Democrat	Generic third party	Undecided
Suffolk University	Apr 25–28, 2019	800	± 3.5%	40%	43%	6%	11%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[c]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Generic Opponent	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN	Jan 15-23, 2020	1,169 (A)	± 2.9%	46%	49%^[k]	2%^[l]	2%

Notes

^ Including 157 write-in votes
^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
^ Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
^ Data not yet released
^ Data not yet released
^ Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
^ Data not yet released
^ Data not yet released
^ "Someone else" with 9%
^ Would vote for a candidate other than Trump
^ Would not vote with 2%

Partisan clients

References

^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
^ Alex Seitz-Wald (December 9, 2018). "2020 Democratic primary: California and Texas look to become the new Iowa and New Hampshire". NBC News. Retrieved December 10, 2018.
^ Steve Peoples; Kathleen Ronayne; Hunter Woodall (February 11, 2020). "President Trump wins GOP primary with more votes than any incumbent president in history". Associated Press. KRCR.
^ "2020 Presidential Primary - Republican Write-Ins - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved 2020-02-17.
^ "Content - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved 2020-02-17.
^ "Results: New Hampshire 2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic President". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved February 13, 2020.
^ "2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic". New Hampshire Secretary of State. March 23, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e "2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic Write-Ins". New Hampshire Secretary of State. March 23, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
^ "Live Results: New Hampshire Primary". The New York Times. February 11, 2020. Archived from the original on February 14, 2020. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
^ "New Hampshire Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Archived from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
^ Marc Fortier (February 13, 2020). "Bloomberg Beat 2 Well-Known Democrats in the NH Primary. He Wasn't Even on the Ballot". NBC Boston (WBTS-CD). Retrieved February 13, 2020.
^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, July 26, 2020 retrieved: April 19, 2020
^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 14 August 2020.

[13] Including 157 write-in votes

[28] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[key-29] ^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e ^f ^g ^h ⁱ ^j ^k ^l ^m ⁿ ^o ^p Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[30] Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight

[31] Data not yet released

[32] Data not yet released

[33] Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight

[34] Data not yet released

[35] Data not yet released

[36] "Someone else" with 9%

[37] Would vote for a candidate other than Trump

[38] Would not vote with 2%

[1] Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[2] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[nbc-3] Alex Seitz-Wald (December 9, 2018). "2020 Democratic primary: California and Texas look to become the new Iowa and New Hampshire". NBC News. Retrieved December 10, 2018.

[4] Steve Peoples; Kathleen Ronayne; Hunter Woodall (February 11, 2020). "President Trump wins GOP primary with more votes than any incumbent president in history". Associated Press. KRCR.

[5] "2020 Presidential Primary - Republican Write-Ins - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved 2020-02-17.

[6] "Content - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved 2020-02-17.

[7] "Results: New Hampshire 2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic President". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved February 13, 2020.

[2020_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary_NHDPprimaryresults-8] "2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic". New Hampshire Secretary of State. March 23, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2022.

[2020_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary_NHDPprimaryresultsWriteIns-9] "2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic Write-Ins". New Hampshire Secretary of State. March 23, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2022.

[2020_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary_NYTResults-10] "Live Results: New Hampshire Primary". The New York Times. February 11, 2020. Archived from the original on February 14, 2020. Retrieved February 12, 2020.

[2020_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary_GPnh-11] "New Hampshire Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Archived from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.

[2020_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary_Bloomberg-12] Marc Fortier (February 13, 2020). "Bloomberg Beat 2 Well-Known Democrats in the NH Primary. He Wasn't Even on the Ballot". NBC Boston (WBTS-CD). Retrieved February 13, 2020.

[14] "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.

[15] "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.

[16] "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.

[17] "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

[18] "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.

[niskanen-19] 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, July 26, 2020 retrieved: April 19, 2020

[20] David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.

[21] "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.

[22] "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.

[23] "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.

[24] "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.

[25] "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.

[26] "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.

[27] "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 14 August 2020.

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