2010 United Kingdom general election: Difference between revisions
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==Timeline== |
==Timeline== |
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a whole bunch of democratic morons with way too much money and infact more cash than brain cells decided to go into a big building and think that they can control this country and everyone inside it, and it may be seen as anarchism in the long run but even with elections going on at the moment i think we can all agree that some tosser is going to sit there eating pie and thinking about ways to take our money off us like a filthy cross breed between a lawyer and homeless person, that tradition has carried on for many many years and eventually someone will get sick of this and slaughter them all much like in my dreams |
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The [[Prime Minister of the United Kingdom|Prime Minister]] [[Gordon Brown]] visited [[Buckingham Palace]] on 6 April and asked the [[Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom|Queen]] to [[Dissolution of the Parliament of the United Kingdom|dissolve Parliament]] on 12 April, confirming in a live press conference in [[Downing Street]], as had long been speculated, that the election would be held on 6 May<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8603591.stm Gordon Brown calls 6 May general election] – BBC News, 6 April 2010</ref> five years, almost to the day, since the previous election on 5 May 2005. The key dates are as follows: |
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fight the power. |
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| style="width:130px;"|Monday 12 April||Dissolution of the [[54th parliament of the UK|54th parliament]] and campaigning officially begins |
| style="width:130px;"|Monday 12 April||Dissolution of the [[54th parliament of the UK|54th parliament]] and campaigning officially begins |
Revision as of 10:21, 7 May 2010
This article documents an election. Information may change rapidly as the event progresses, and initial news reports may be unreliable. The latest updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. (May 2010) |
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All 650 seats to the House of Commons [note 1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Colours denote the winning party, as shown in the main table of results. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The United Kingdom general election of 2010 was held on 6 May,[note 1] to elect one Member of Parliament in each of the 650 constituencies to the House of Commons, the lower house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. The election was more than five years after the previous election. Voting took place between 7:00 am and 10:00 pm. Local elections were also held in some areas on the same day. The election was called on 6 April, and Parliament was dissolved on 12 April for the ensuing campaign.
The Conservative Party won the largest number of seats but fell short of the required 326 seats to have an overall majority. There will now be a hung parliament in the United Kingdom for the first time since 1974,[1] and the second time since World War II.
The governing Labour Party campaigned to secure a fourth consecutive term in office and to restore support lost since 1997.[2] The Conservative Party sought to gain a dominant position in UK politics after losses in the 1990s, and to replace Labour as the governing party. The Liberal Democrats hoped to make gains from both sides and hoped to hold the balance of power in a hung parliament. Since the televised debates between the three leaders, their poll ratings had risen to the point where many considered the possibility of a Liberal Democrat role in Government.[3] Polls just before election day saw a slight swing from the Liberal Democrats back to Labour and Conservatives, with the majority of final polls falling within one point of Conservatives 36%, Labour 28%, Liberal Democrats 27%.[4][5] However record numbers of undecided voters raised uncertainty about the outcome.
The Scottish National Party, encouraged by their victory in the 2007 Scottish parliament elections, set themselves a target of 20 MPs and were hoping to find themselves in a balance of power position.[6] Equally, Plaid Cymru sought gains in Wales. Smaller parties who have had successes at local elections and the 2009 European elections (United Kingdom Independence Party, Green Party, British National Party) looked to extend their representation to seats in the House of Commons. The Democratic Unionist Party looked to maintain, if not extend, their number of seats, having been the fourth largest party in the House of Commons
The election was the first to be faced by the Labour leader Gordon Brown as Prime Minister, who became party leader in 2007 after the resignation of Tony Blair. It was also the first election to be faced by the main opposition party leaders, David Cameron of the Conservatives and Nick Clegg of the Liberal Democrats. It was thus the first time since 1979 that none of the three main party leaders has headed a previous general election campaign. For the first time at a British election, the three main party leaders engaged in a series of televised debates. There were many reports of electors being prevented from voting as polling stations closed at 10:00 pm, mainly from insufficient time or electoral staff, but also from a lack of ballot papers.
Result
At 9:41am the BBC announced a 'hung parliament' as it is now mathematically impossible for the Conservative party to gain the share needed. The Conservative party sat at 290 seats, Labour at 247 and Liberal Democrats at 51 at the time of the announcement, with 326 seats total needed for any one party to have a clear majority.
Timeline
a whole bunch of democratic morons with way too much money and infact more cash than brain cells decided to go into a big building and think that they can control this country and everyone inside it, and it may be seen as anarchism in the long run but even with elections going on at the moment i think we can all agree that some tosser is going to sit there eating pie and thinking about ways to take our money off us like a filthy cross breed between a lawyer and homeless person, that tradition has carried on for many many years and eventually someone will get sick of this and slaughter them all much like in my dreams
fight the power.
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| style="width:130px;"|Monday 12 April||Dissolution of the 54th parliament and campaigning officially begins
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|Tuesday 20 April||Last day to file nomination papers, to register to vote, and to request a postal vote[7]
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|Wednesday 5 May|| Campaigning officially ends
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|Thursday 6 May|| Polling day
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|Tuesday 18 May||55th parliament assembles
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|Tuesday 25 May||State Opening of Parliament
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|Thursday 27 May|| Voting takes place in the delayed poll in the constituency of Thirsk and Malton.[note 1]
|}
Contesting parties
Main three
All three main parties went into the general election having changed leaders since the last election. David Cameron became Conservative leader in December 2005, replacing Michael Howard. Gordon Brown succeeded Tony Blair as leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister in June 2007. Nick Clegg was elected as leader of the Liberal Democrats in December 2007, succeeding Menzies Campbell who had replaced Charles Kennedy in January 2006. The last time all three main parties went into a general election with new leaders was in the 1979 election, when James Callaghan as Labour leader, Margaret Thatcher for the Conservatives, and David Steel with the then-Liberal Party took to the polls.
The leadership of each party may have implications beyond party popularity at the polls, especially if a hung parliament requires the formation of a coalition or minority government. Tony Blair courted the Liberal Democrats for possible coalition in the 1997 Parliament even though Labour had a clear majority, and similarly Gordon Brown made comments about the possibility of a coalition in January 2010.[9] In 2009, it was reported that senior civil servants are to meet with the Liberal Democrats to discuss their policies, an indication of how seriously the prospect of a hung parliament is being taken.[10] Nick Clegg [11] and Menzies Campbell [12] have continued the position of Charles Kennedy of not being prepared to form a coalition with either main party and of voting against any Queen's Speech unless there was an unambiguous commitment in it to introduce proportional representation.
David Cameron has attempted to make a pitch to "Middle England"—voters who supposedly abandoned the Conservative Party after 1992 for Labour or the Liberal Democrats.[13]
Others
Other parties with representation at the previous general election at Westminster include the Scottish National Party from Scotland and Plaid Cymru from Wales, and Respect – The Unity Coalition and Health Concern, each of which holds one Parliamentary seat from England. Since that election, the Scottish National Party have won the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections and currently control the Scottish Government and also won the largest share of the 2009 European Parliament election vote in Scotland.[14] In Wales, the Labour Party remained the largest party in the Welsh Assembly, though Plaid Cymru increased their share of the vote and formed a coalition government with Labour.[15]
In Northern Ireland, none of the main parties from Great Britain has any representation. At the 2005 election, Sinn Féin (whose MPs do not take their seats since they will not swear the Oath of Allegiance to the Queen) won five seats. The Democratic Unionist Party won nine, continuing their expansion at the expense of the Social Democratic and Labour Party (three seats) and the Ulster Unionist Party (one seat). The sole Ulster Unionist Party MP subsequently resigned from the party leaving them with no representation at Westminster.[16] This shift continued trends in both the nationalist and unionist communities that had been seen in the previous two elections, and was also replicated in the 2007 elections to the Northern Ireland Assembly. In 2008, the DUP announced their intention to sit with the Conservative Party in parliament, and in 2009 the UUP and the Conservative Party announced they had formed an electoral alliance: the two parties will field joint candidates for future elections under the banner of "Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force".[17]
Many constituencies were contested by other, smaller parties. Parties that won no representatives at Westminster in 2005 but have seats in the devolved assemblies or European Parliament included the Alliance Party of Northern Ireland, the Progressive Unionist Party of Northern Ireland, the British National Party, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), and the Green parties in the UK: the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Green Party, and the Green Party in Northern Ireland. In 2009, Nigel Farage announced his intention to resign as UKIP leader to focus his attention on becoming a Member of Parliament. Farage was replaced by Lord Pearson of Rannoch, elected by party members, whose stated intention was for the electoral support of UKIP to force a hung parliament. The Green Party of England and Wales voted to have a position of leader for the first time; the first leadership election was won by Caroline Lucas, who successfully contested the constituency of Brighton Pavilion.
In addition to a wide number of smaller parties which had no parliamentary representation, a new loose coalition contested a general election for the first time. The Trade Union and Socialist Coalition (TUSC), is a grouping of left-wing parties that participated in the 2009 European Parliament elections under the name of No2EU; members include the Socialist Workers Party, the Socialist Party, the Socialist Alliance, Socialist Resistance, and is supported by some members of UNISON, the National Union of Teachers, the University and College Union, the National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers, and the Public and Commercial Services Union. Several members of these unions agreed to run as candidates under the TUSC banner.[18] However, some former members of NO2EU, such as the Liberal Party[citation needed] and the Communist Party of Britain,[19] chose not to participate in the TUSC campaign. The coalition will not run candidates against left-wing Labour or Respect candidates.[20][21]
MPs not seeking re-election
This election has an unusually high number of MPs choosing not to seek re-election with more standing down than did so at the 1945 election (which on account of the extraordinary wartime circumstances came ten years after the preceding election).[22] This has been attributed to the expenses scandal and the fact that redundancy-style payments for departing MPs may be scrapped after the election.[23]
In all, 149 MPs (100 Labour, 35 Conservatives, 7 Liberal Democrats, 2 Independents, 1 Independent Conservative and 1 member each from Plaid Cymru, the Scottish National Party, the Democratic Unionist Party, and the Social Democratic and Labour Party) have decided not to contest the election.
Boundary changes
Each of the four national Boundary Commissions is required by the Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986 (as amended by the Boundary Commissions Act 1992) to conduct a general review of all the constituencies in its part of the United Kingdom every eight to twelve years to ensure the size and composition of constituencies are as fair as possible. Based on the Rallings and Thrasher studies using ward by ward data from local elections and the 2005 general election, the new boundaries to be used in 2010 would have returned nine fewer Labour MPs had they been in place at the previous election; given that there are to be four more seats in the next parliament this notionally reduces Labour's majority from 66 to 44.[24]
Pursuant to Boundary Commission for England recommendations, the number of seats in England increased by four, and numerous changes were made to the existing constituency boundaries.[25]
Northern Ireland will continue to elect 18 MPs, but minor changes were made to the eastern constituencies in accordance with the Northern Ireland Boundary Commission's recommendations.[26] For the first time, these changes include the splitting of an electoral ward between two constituencies.
Following the recommendations of the Boundary Commission for Wales, the total number of seats is to remain at 40, although new seats have been recommended by radical redrawing of boundaries in Clwyd and Gwynedd: Arfon and Dwyfor Meirionnydd replace Caernarfon and Meirionnydd Nant Conwy respectively; Aberconwy replaces Conwy. Currently Welsh constituencies have electorates on average around 14,000 smaller than their counterparts in England.[27]
Scotland saw its most recent large-scale review completed in 2004, so its 59 constituencies remain the same as at the 2005 general election.
Campaign
April
The prospective Labour candidate for Moray, Stuart Maclennan, was sacked after making offensive comments on his Twitter page, referring to elderly voters as "coffin dodgers", voters in the North of Scotland as "teuchters", and insulting politicians such as David Cameron, Nick Clegg, John Bercow and Diane Abbott.[28][29]
The UKIP candidate for Thirsk and Malton, John Boakes, died causing the election in the constituency to be postponed until 27 May.[30]
Philip Lardner, the Conservative candidate for Ayrshire North and Arran was suspended from the party for comments he made about homosexuality on his website, describing it as not "normal behaviour". Andrew Fulton, chair of the Scottish Conservative Party called the comments "deeply offensive and unacceptable", adding, "These views have no place in the modern Conservative party." However, he would still appear as a Conservative candidate because it was too late to remove his name from the ballot paper.[31]
2,378 postal voters in Bristol West were wrongly sent ballot papers for Bristol East by mistake. Bristol City Council officials asked people to tear up the wrong papers and said "Every effort will be made to ensure delivery [of new ballot papers] by 30 April."[32]
Gordon Brown privately described a 65-year-old pensioner, Gillian Duffy, from Rochdale, Greater Manchester, as a "sort of bigoted woman" after she asked him about vulnerable people not receiving benefits because non-vulnerable people are receiving them, including "all these Eastern Europeans what are coming in".[33][34] Brown's remarks were recorded by a Sky News microphone he was still wearing, and widely broadcast. Soon after the incident, Brown talked to Jeremy Vine live on BBC Radio 2 where he publicly apologised to Duffy. Subsequently Brown visited Duffy in her house for 45 minutes in order to apologise in person. Upon emerging, he described himself as a "penitent sinner",[35] while Duffy refused to speak to the press. A subsequent poll for The Sun, which the paper declined to publish, found a small majority of people agreeing that it was a "storm in a teacup" and that "we should not think the worse of him".[36] Duffy later told the Mail on Sunday that she had forgiven Brown during their meeting, but had not wanted to shake hands with him in front of the cameras. She said the incident had left her feeling more sad than angry and that she would not be voting for Labour or any other party.[37]
The Scottish National Party failed in a court action to ban the broadcast in Scotland of the final party leaders debate. They had argued that "the corporation [the BBC] had breached its rules on impartiality by excluding the SNP." The judge, Lady Smith, ruled that "the SNP's case 'lacks the requisite precision and clarity'" and added she could not "conclude the BBC had breached impartiality rules." Additionally, broadcasting regulator Ofcom ruled that it had not "upheld complaints received from the SNP and Plaid Cymru about The First Election Debate broadcast on ITV1 on Thursday 15 April 2010."[38]
The leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party, Lord Pearson, wrote an open letter to Somerset newspapers, asking voters to support Conservative candidates, rather than UKIP candidates in the Somerton and Frome, Taunton Deane and Wells constituencies. This action was criticised by UKIP candidates who refused to stand down.[39]
Labour candidate for Bristol East and former MP Kerry McCarthy revealed information about postal votes cast in the constituency on the social networking site Twitter. Avon and Somerset police said they were "looking into a possible alleged breach of electoral law." Bristol City Council stated that "This is a criminal matter and [it] will be for the police to decide what action to take."[40]
The former Prime Minister Tony Blair returned to the campaign trail for the Labour visiting a polyclinic in Harrow West, after a troubled Labour campaign.[41]
Postal voters in the marginal Vale of Glamorgan constituency had to be issued new ballot papers after mistakenly being told they did not have to sign applications for postal votes.[42]
May
In Hornsey and Wood Green constituency, 749 postal voters were sent ballot papers "which asked voters to pick three candidates instead of one." Haringey Council had to deliver new ballot papers by hand.[43]
The Metropolitan Police launched an investigation into allegations of bogus voter registration after revelations that fictitious names had been added to the electoral roll in the London Borough of Tower Hamlets. It was also reported that a last minute surge in applications to vote before the 20 April deadline had led to 5,000 names being added to the register without being checked, enough to sway the outcome of the election.[44]
The Labour candidate for North West Norfolk, Manish Sood, described Gordon Brown as Britain's worst ever Prime Minister.[45] The comments, which he repeated to a variety of news outlets, took attention away from the previous day's speech by Brown to Citizens UK, widely described as his best of the campaign.[46][47]
A Conservative Party activist in Peterborough was arrested after alleged incidents of postal voting fraud.[48]
Simon Bennett resigns as the head of the British National Party's online operation, then redirects its website to his own website on which he launches an attack against the party's leadership.[49]
On the morning of polling day, the former leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, was injured when a light aircraft in which he was a passenger crashed near Brackley, Northamptonshire.[50] There were also several reports of voters being locked out of polling stations in Sheffield Hallam, Manchester and Leeds, "and police said one London polling station was open at 2230 BST."[51] Counting in Londonderry was also suspended around 2300 UTC, after a car which was abandonded outside the counting centre caused a bomb scare.
The counts for the Foyle and East Londonderry constituencies were suspended due to a security alert.
The first major shift occurred when Peter Robinson, incumbent First Minister of Northern Ireland, lost his seat to Naomi Long of the Alliance Party.[52]
Debates
Following a campaign by Sky News and with agreement of the party leaders.[53] it was announced on 21 December 2009 that there would be three leaders' debates, each in primetime, [54] and a subsequent announcement in March 2010 that a debate between the financial spokesmen of the three main parties, Alistair Darling, George Osborne and Vince Cable would be held on 29 March.[55]
Date | Host | Location | Moderator | Subject | Highlights |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
15 April | ITV | Manchester | Alastair Stewart | Domestic policy | Instant polling after the event unanimously declared Nick Clegg the winner.[56] This first debate caused a large, immediate, and unexpected impact on opinion polls in favour of the Liberal Democrats. |
22 April | Sky News | Bristol | Adam Boulton | International affairs | Nick Clegg and David Cameron came out best in the instant polls with Gordon Brown very closely behind. Nick Clegg, having received such a surge after the first debate, was judged to have fended off the Labour Party and Conservative Party attacks. Gordon Brown was judged to have drastically improved his performance, and David Cameron was judged to have overcome the nerves that commentators believed affected him in the First Debate.[57] In the build-up, the Liberal Democrats were affected by claims Clegg had received secret donations from businessmen, although he subsequently released his financial statements to show that no improper conduct had occurred.[58] |
29 April | BBC | Birmingham | David Dimbleby | Economy and taxes | In the third and final poll, David Cameron was widely regarded as the party leader who made the best impression to the audience at home.[citation needed] At the end of the debating night, the Conservatives had gained a 5% lead over the Labour Party. |
The SNP insisted that as the leading political party in Scotland in the latest opinion poll, it should be included in any debate broadcast in Scotland. [59] On 22 December 2009, the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) leader, Lord Pearson stated that his party should be also be included. Following a decision by the BBC Trust not to uphold a complaint from the SNP and Plaid Cymru over their exclusion from the planned BBC debate, the SNP announced on 25 April that they would proceed with legal action over the debate scheduled for 29 April.[60] The party said it was not trying to stop the broadcast but it wanted an SNP politician included for balance. The SNP lost the case, in a judgement delivered on the 28 April.[61]
Polling
Since each MP is elected separately by the first past the post voting system, it is impossible to precisely project a clear election outcome from overall UK shares of the vote. Not only can individual constituencies vary markedly from overall voting trends, but individual countries and regions within the UK may have a very different electoral contest that is not properly reflected in overall share of the vote figures.
Therefore, the first past the post system means that the number of MPs elected may not reflect the overall popular vote share across the parties. Thus, it is not necessarily the party with the largest share of the popular vote that will end up with the largest number of MPs. (See details of the elections in 1951 and February 1974.) Since 1935 no party has achieved more than 50% of the popular vote in a UK general election. The voting system favours parties with relatively concentrated support: a widely distributed vote leaves a party at risk of getting a large vote share but doing poorly in terms of numbers of seats (as the SDP-Liberal Alliance did in the 1980s), whereas parties with localised votes can win seats with a relatively small share of the vote.
That said, in previous elections, approximate forecasting of results were achieved by assuming that the swing in each individual constituency will be the same across the country. This system, known as uniform national swing (UNS) is used by much of the media in the UK to assess and extrapolate electoral fortunes from opinion poll data, though there has been criticism that such predictions may be naive and unreliable, even from providers of such data.[62] By using UNS projections, several media commentators and politicians have suggested that significant swings towards the Liberal Democrats in the opinion polls may not necessarily amount to significant gains in terms of parliamentary seats, including predictions that even if the Liberal Democrats had the most votes, and Labour the least, it could be the case that Labour retains the most seats while the Lib Dems have the fewest.[63][64][65]
Normally governments can easily survive for a full parliamentary term on a majority of more than 20 seats over all other parties. Below that level there is a danger of by-elections and MPs crossing the floor of the House reducing the government to a minority such that it would be at increased risk of losing a vote of no confidence in the government.
Polling since 2005
Immediately following the previous general election, the Labour party held a double-digit lead in opinion polls. However, over the course of 2005, this lead was eroded somewhat. By December 2005, the Conservative party showed its first small leads in opinion polls following the controversial 90 days detention proposals and the election of David Cameron to the leadership of the Conservative party.[66]
In early 2006, opinion polls were increasingly mixed with small leads given alternately to Labour and Conservative. From the May 2006 local elections, in which Labour suffered significant losses, the Conservatives took a small single-digit lead in opinion polls. Labour regained the lead in June 2007 following the resignation of Tony Blair and the appointment of Gordon Brown as prime minister. From November 2007, the Conservatives again took the lead and, from then, extended their lead into double digits, particularly in response to the MPs' expenses scandal, although there was some evidence that the lead narrowed slightly towards the end of 2009. By the end of February 2010, Ipsos MORI, ICM, YouGov and ComRes polls had all found a sufficient narrowing of the Conservative lead for media speculation about a hung parliament to return.[67]
From 15 April 2010, following the first televised debate of the party leaders, however, polling data changed dramatically, with the Lib Dem vote proportion rising to 28–33%, and the Conservative vote proportion falling, putting all three parties within the margin of error of each other. In some polls, the Liberal Democrats have taken the lead from the Conservatives. Under UNS projections, this makes a hung parliament highly probable, if Lib Dem performance were to persist.[68]
After the second debate on 22 April the polls, on average, place the Conservatives in the lead on 33%, the Liberal Democrats in second on 30% and Labour in third on 28%. If these polls reflected the election day results on a uniform swing nationwide, Labour would have the most seats in a hung Parliament.
The following graph shows polls recorded over the entire period by ICM:
The following graph shows YouGov poll results since the calling of the general election on 6 April 2010.
Exit poll
At 10 pm on election day, coinciding with the closure of the polls, the results of an exit poll collected for the BBC, Sky and ITV news services were announced. Data was gathered from individuals at 130 polling stations around the country. The results of the poll initially suggested a hung parliament with the Conservative Party 19 seats from a controlling majority; this was later adjusted to 21 seats. The distribution of seats amongst the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and other parties was initially suggested to be 307, 255, 59 and 29 respectively,[69] although the seat numbers were later changed to 303, 251, 69, and 27 respectively.[70]
Initial reaction to the exit poll by various commentators was of surprise at the apparent poor prospects for the Liberal Democrats.[71]
A later BBC Exit poll (05:36 GMT) predicted the Conservatives on 306, 20 short of an overall majority, Labour on 262, and Liberal Democrats on 55.[72]
Newspaper endorsements
National newspapers in the United Kingdom traditionally endorse political parties before a general election. The following table shows which parties major papers are endorsing (or blank if they have not declared a preference).
Dailies | Sundays | ||
---|---|---|---|
Newspaper | Endorsement | Newspaper | Endorsement |
The Daily Express | Conservative[73] | The Sunday Express | Conservative[74] |
The Guardian | Liberal Democrats[75] | The Observer | Liberal Democrats[76] |
The Daily Mail | Conservative[74] | The Mail on Sunday | Conservative[77] |
The Daily Mirror | Labour[74] | The Sunday Mirror | Labour[74] |
The People | Coalition[74] | ||
The Sun | Conservative[78] | The News of the World | Conservative[79] |
The Daily Telegraph | Conservative[80] | The Sunday Telegraph | Conservative[74] |
The Times | Conservative[81] | The Sunday Times | Conservative[82] |
The London Evening Standard | Conservative[83] | ||
The Financial Times | Conservative[84] | ||
The Independent |
In addition, the Daily Mirror traditionally supports Labour, the Daily Express is a traditional Conservative supporter, and The Independent supported the Liberal Democrats in 2005.[85] In 2010 the Independent and The Guardian advocated tactical voting to maximise the chance of a Liberal Democrat–Labour coalition, in order to make electoral reform a possibility.[86][75]
Marginal seats for main parties
Following the Boundary Commissions' reports recommending changes to seats in England, Northern Ireland, and Wales various estimates have been made of the electoral effect of the changes in each constituency. The most respected of these estimates is The Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies compiled and edited by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, which was published in February 2007.[87] The website UKPollingReport has also compiled estimates.[88] The various estimates differ in detail.
Arising out of those estimates, lists of the most marginal seats have been compiled. They are the seats where a party needs to overturn the lowest percentage majority to win the seat. These are not necessarily the seats where it will be easiest to do so, or the only seats that the party will actually be targeting. For complete lists of targets for each party, see Conservative targets for next UK election, Labour targets for next UK election and Liberal Democrat targets for next UK election.
N.B. The "Winning Party" is notional, calculated on the Boundary Commission changes made to the seat (except in the case of Scottish constituencies, where revised boundaries were adopted prior to 2005, and the few seats to have seen no boundary changes). This may not be the same as the party that won the seat in the 2005 general election (for instance in the case of Solihull and Rochdale).
Conservative targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party | Swing to gain | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Gillingham and Rainham
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.02 | |
2 | Crawley
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.04 | |
3 | York Outer
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FAA61A;" data-sort-value="Liberal Democrats" | |
Liberal Democrats | 0.22 | |
4 | Romsey and Southampton North
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FAA61A;" data-sort-value="Liberal Democrats" | |
Liberal Democrats | 0.23 | |
5 | Harlow
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.29 | |
6 | Cheltenham
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FAA61A;" data-sort-value="Liberal Democrats" | |
Liberal Democrats | 0.33 | |
7 | Croydon Central#
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.36 | |
8 | Portsmouth North
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.38 | |
9 | Battersea
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.41 | |
10 | Hove
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.50 |
Democratic Unionist targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party | Swing to gain | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Belfast South
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #2AA82C;" data-sort-value="Social Democratic and Labour Party" | |
SDLP | 1.93 |
Labour targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party | Swing to gain | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Sittingbourne and Sheppey#
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.03 | |
2 | Clwyd West
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.07 | |
3 | Hemel Hempstead
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.18 | |
4 | Kettering
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.20 | |
5 | North East Somerset#
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.23 | |
6 | Finchley and Golders Green#
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.35 | |
7 | Shipley
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.48 | |
8 | Dundee East
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FDF38E;" data-sort-value="Scottish National Party" | |
SNP | 0.48 | |
9 | Rochester and Strood#
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.57 | |
10 | Wellingborough
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.62 |
Liberal Democrat targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party | Swing to gain | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Guildford
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.09 | |
2 | Solihull#
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.12 | |
3 | Rochdale#
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.17 | |
4 | Oxford East
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.37 | |
5 | Edinburgh South
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.47 | |
6 | Hampstead and Kilburn
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.57 | |
7 | Eastbourne
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Conservative Party (UK)" | |
Conservative | 0.70 | |
8 | Islington South and Finsbury
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.78 | |
9 | Watford
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 1.17 | |
10 | Ealing Central and Acton
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 1.37 |
Plaid Cymru targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party | Swing to gain | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ceredigion
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #FAA61A;" data-sort-value="Liberal Democrats" | |
Liberal Democrats | 0.31 | |
2 | Arfon#
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.91 | |
3 | Ynys Môn
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 1.75 |
Scottish National Party targets
Rank | Constituency | Winning party | Swing to gain | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ochil and South Perthshire
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 0.74 | |
2 | Dundee West
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Labour Party (UK)" | |
Labour | 7.29 |
Ulster Unionist targets§
Rank | Constituency | Winning party | Swing to gain | |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | South Antrim
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #D46A4C;" data-sort-value="Democratic Unionist Party" | |
DUP | 4.54 | |
2 | Belfast South
style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #2AA82C;" data-sort-value="Social Democratic and Labour Party" | |
SDLP | 4.80 |
- ^# Challenging party won the seat in 2005, but boundary changes make the seat notionally held by the other party
- ^§ Constituency contested by the Ulster Unionist Party, a constituent group of Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force
The first result was received from Houghton and Sunderland South at 22:52BST, a Labour victory.[citation needed]
The second result was from Washington and Sunderland West, a Labour seat, at 23:26BST.[citation needed]
The third seat to be announced was declared from Sunderland Central, a Labour victory, at 23:41BST.[citation needed]
The fourth seat to be declared was the Northern Irish seat of Belfast East, at 00:50BST, in which the incumbent MP Peter Robinson of the Democratic Unionist Party, the First Minister of Northern Ireland, lost his seat to the Alliance Party, Naomi Long becoming the Alliance Party's first MP.[citation needed]
Results breakdown
The result of the election was a hung Parliament.[89] With 617 of 650 seats declared.[90]
Votes summary
Seats summary
Incumbent MPs defeated
Northern Ireland's First Minister, Peter Robinson, lost by a large margin to the Alliance Party, with a vote swing of more than 20%.
The Liberal Democrats' Lembit Öpik lost his seat, having previously had a 7000-vote majority.
Labour's Jacqui Smith, a former Home Secretary was defeated in Redditch.
Another former Home Secretary, Charles Clarke, Labour, lost his Norwich South seat to the Liberal Democrats, falling to a 4% swing from Labour to the Lib Dems.
Ministers Angela Evans Smith, Bill Rammell, Mike O'Brien and Vera Baird lost their seats.
Irregularities
A number of voting irregularities occurred during this election. The Electoral Commission will be carrying out a "thorough investigation".[93]
According to reports 600 voters who were registered to vote were unable to vote due to the electoral roll not being updated.[94]
Dissatisfied citizens who had been turned away from the polling stations staged sit-ins to protest against what some of them had called "disenfranchisement".[93]
Police were called when 300 people were turned away from the polling station.[93]
After higher than expected turnout, several polling stations in Liverpool ran out of ballot papers, with council leader Warren Bradley stating that some residents were unable to cast their votes.[95]
Delays attributed to students not presenting their polling cards caused many voters to be turned away.[93] The cards are not required, but they speed up the process of issuing ballots.
Notes
- ^ a b c The poll in the constituency of Thirsk and Malton has been postponed until 27 May due to the death of the UKIP candidate, John Boakes. UKIP have said they will not name a candidate until after 6 May out of respect for Boakes.[8]
- ^ a b Reflects the notional winners of seats in light of boundary changes.
References
- ^ "Britain wakes up to a hung Parliament". The Times. 7 May 2010. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
- ^ "Brown would 'renew' Labour Party". BBC News Online. 5 January 2007.
- ^ "Election 2010: Lib Dem policies targeted by rivals". BBC News Online. 19 April 2010.
- ^ http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
- ^ Tories scent victory as poll lead widens London Times, May 6, 2010
- ^ "Salmond wants Westminster to 'dance to a Scottish jig' as he targets 20 seats". The Scotsman. 21 April 2008.
- ^ "Research Paper 07/31: Election Timetables" (PDF). House of Commons Library.
- ^ "Election delayed after the death of candidate". Malton & Pickering Mercury. 28 April 2010. Retrieved 29 April 2010.
- ^ "PM paves way for deal with Lib Dems in hung parliament". The Independent. 4 January 2010.
- ^ Whitehall prepares for hung parliament with Lib Dem talks The Guardian, 1 January 2009
- ^ "Clegg's terms for deal in hung parliament". Guardian Unlimited. 10 March 2008.
- ^ "Liberal Democrats under my leadership would vote against any Queens Speech without a clear and unambiguous commitment for Proportional Representation". Ming Campbell Official Website. 15 February 2006.
- ^ "Brown to stake all on Middle England". The Times. 25 September 2006.
- ^ "Salmond hails 'historic' Euro win". BBC News. 8 June 2009. Retrieved 9 April 2010.
- ^ Labour-Plaid coalition sealed BBC News, 7 July 2007
- ^ MP Lady Sylvia Hermon quits Ulster Unionists BBC News, 25 March 2010
- ^ Lady Hermon under 'no pressure' BBC News, 27 February 2009
- ^ "Trade Unionist and Sociaist Coalition". TUSC. Retrieved 13 April 2010.
- ^ Executive Committee statement on elections Communist Party, 17 January 2010
- ^ TUSC left coalition to stand in general election Socialist Worker, 6 February 2010
- ^ Launch of Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition The Socialist, 12 January 2010
- ^ "A post-war record for MPs standing down". BBC News Online. 2 December 2009.
- ^ "Quarter of MPs to stand down over expenses". The Daily Telegraph. 28 December 2009.
- ^ Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher, "The Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies", Local Government Chronicle Elections Centre, 2007. ISBN 0948858451.
- ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (England) Order 2007 (S.I. 2007 No. 1681)".
- ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies (Northern Ireland) Order 2008 (S.I. 2008 No. 1486)".
- ^ "The Parliamentary Constituencies and Assembly Electoral Regions (Wales) Order 2006 (S.I. 2006 No. 1041)".
- ^ "Twitter abuse candidate Stuart MacLennan removed". BBC News. 9 April 2010. Retrieved 3 May 2010.
- ^ Nicoll, Andrew (9 April 2010). "Twitter ranting Labour hopeful Stuart MacLennan is blasted". The Scottish Sun. Retrieved 3 May 2010.
- ^ Death of UKIP candidate John Boakes delays poll in Thirsk & Malton Times Online, 23 April 2010
- ^ "Tory candidate Philip Lardner suspended for gay comment". BBC News. BBC. 27 April 2010. Retrieved 1 May 2010.
- ^ Staff writer (27 April 2010). "Postal voters sent wrong ballot papers in Bristol West". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 2 May 2010.
- ^ "Profile of Gillian Duffy, the voter PM called 'bigoted'". BBC News. 28 April 2010. Retrieved 4 May 2010.
- ^ "How Gordon Brown 'bigot' jibe row unfolded". BBC News. 28 April 2010. Retrieved 3 May 2010.
- ^ "Brown apologises to voter for 'bigoted woman' comment". BBC News. 28 April 2010. Retrieved 28 April 2010.
- ^ Unpublished YouGov/Sun poll shows support for Gordon Brown over 'bigot' remark The Guardian, 29 April 2010
- ^ "Election 2010: Woman in Brown 'bigot' row not to vote". BBC News. BBC. 1 May 2010. Retrieved 1 May 2010.
- ^ "SNP fails in BBC debate court bid". BBC News. 28 April 2010. Retrieved 29 April 2010.
- ^ "UKIP asks voters in Somerset to back the Tories". BBC News. 28 April 2010. Retrieved 30 April 2010.
- ^ "Police probe Twitter votes gaffe by Bristol candidate". BBC News. 29 April 2010. Retrieved 30 April 2010.
- ^ "Tony Blair Returns To Campaign Trail". PoliticsRAW. 30 April 2010. Retrieved 30 April 2010.
- ^ "Key marginal Vale of Glamorgan's postal votes error". BBC Newspublisher=BBC. 30 April 2010. Retrieved 2 May 2010.
- ^ "Error leads to new ballot papers in Haringey". BBC News. BBC. 1 May 2010. Retrieved 2 May 2010.
- ^ Kennedy, Dominic (1 May 2010). "Late surge in Tower Hamlets postal votes prompts police fraud probe". Times Online. News International. Retrieved 2 May 2010.
- ^ "Manish Sood Turns Against PM". PoliticsRAW. 4 May 2010. Retrieved 4 May 2010.
- ^ The Guardian, 4 May 2010, General election 2010: Brown worst prime minister ever – Labour candidate
- ^ The Guardian, 3 May 2010, General election 2010: Battered Gordon Brown finds his voice
- ^ "Arrest after alleged voting fraud in Peterborough". BBC News. BBC. 5 May 2010. Retrieved 5 May 2010.
- ^ Hamilton, Fiona (5 May 2010). "BNP in turmoil after online chief Simon Bennett walks out". Times Online. News International. Retrieved 5 May 2010.
- ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/northamptonshire/8664260.stm
- ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8666338.stm
- ^ Staff (7 May 2010). "Election count centre in Londonderry is evacuated". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
- ^ Norman, Laurence (3 October 2009). "Brown Agrees to U.S.-Style Debates – WSJ.com". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 10 January 2010.
- ^ "Brown to face three televised election debates". BBC News Online. 21 December 2009. Retrieved 21 December 2009.
- ^ Ask the Chancellors Channel 4
- ^ Estelle Shirbon (15 April 2010). "Outsider Clegg judged winner in first UK TV debate". Reuters.
- ^ Staff writer (23 April 2010). "– Papers divided over verdict on second leaders debate". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 27 April 2010.
- ^ Ralph, Alex; Jagger, Suzy (23 April 2010). "Nick Clegg left £700 out of pocket in unusual financial arrangement". The Times. News International Group. Retrieved 27 April 2010.
- ^ Salmond slams rigged election debate proposals SNP, 21 December 2009
- ^ "SNP in legal bid over BBC TV prime ministerial debate". BBC News. 25 April 2010. Retrieved 27 April 2010.
- ^ "Opinion of Lady Smith in the Petition of Scottish National Party and Others for Judicial Review". Scottish Courts. 28 April 2010. Retrieved 28 April 2010.
- ^ Predicting Results UK Polling Report
- ^ Pollwatch: Election 2010 could be the death knell for first past the post Guardian, 18 April 2010
- ^ The Lib Dems surge in Britain Washington Examiner
- ^ Election 2010: Lib Dem policies targeted by rivals BBC News, 19 April 2010
- ^ Anthony Wells (10 December 2005). "Tories take the Lead". UKPollingReport. Retrieved 15 March 2010.
- ^ YouGov show Tory lead cut to 7 points UK Polling Report, 29 January 2010
- ^ General election 2010: All change for new politics Guardian, 20 April 2010
- ^ BBC News – Election Exit Poll: Tories will be 19 short of majority BBC News, 06 May 2010
- ^ Staff (6 May 2010). "Election 2010 – Live coverage – General Election 2010". BBC News. BBC. Retrieved 6 May 2010.
- ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/8666266.stm
- ^ [1] BBC News, 06 May 2010
- ^ "Only David Cameron can save Britain". The Daily Express. 5 May 2010.
- ^ a b c d e f "Newspaper Backing". Election 2010: Party leaders step up campaigning. BBC News. 2 May 2010.
- ^ a b "General Election 2010: The liberal moment has come". The Guardian. 30 April 2010.
- ^ "Nick Clegg is the candidate of change". The Observer. 1 May 2010.
- ^ "Who can you trust to clear up this mess?". Daily Mail. 1 May 2010.
- ^ "The Sun Says: Labour's lost it". The Sun. 30 September 2009.
- ^ "News of the World backs Conservatives in election race". BBC News. BBC. 28 March 2010. Retrieved 2 May 2010.
- ^ "General Election 2010: Now is the time for character". The Daily Telegraph. 4 May 2010.
- ^ "Vote of Confidence". The Times. 30 April 2010.
- ^ "Tories deserve a chance to govern". The Sunday Times. 2 May 2010.
- ^ "David Cameron: the Prime Minister that London now needs". The London Evening Standard. 5 May 2010.
- ^ "Editorial – The Case for Change". The Financial Times. 2 May 2010.
- ^ Is it the Sun wot wins it for Labour? How newspaper support affects elections The Guardian, 30 September 2009
- ^ Vote for change. Real change The Independent on Sunday, 2 May 2010
- ^ Local Government Chronicle Elections Centre for BBC, ITN, PA News and Sky News. ISBN 0 948858 45 1.
- ^ UKPollingReport Election Guide, UK Polling Report, in association with YouGov
- ^ "Britain wakes up to a hung Parliament". The Times. 7 May 2010. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
- ^
"BBC NEWS Election 2010". BBC News. British Broadcasting Corporation. May 7, 2010.
{{cite news}}
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(help) - ^ BBC NEWS Election 2010 Results
- ^ BBC NEWS Election 2010 Results
- ^ a b c d e f g Electoral Commission to investigate thwarted voters accessed 7 May 00:52
- ^ "Thousands left unable to vote as huge queues form". Daily Telegraph. 7 May 2010. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
- ^ "Liverpool polling station runs out of ballots". BBC News. Retrieved 7 May 2010.
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(help)
External links
- British General Election, 2010 resources from Politics Science Resources
- YourNextMP crowd-sourced information on UK candidates, with API feeds licensed under CreativeCommons BY-SA
- Your Candidate Finder allows you to filter all the candidates in the database based on everything from what type of education they had, to their age, gender, profession, county and role (i.e. contesting, defending, standing for the first time or again).
- Where They Stand: Guide to party election policies, by the BBC
Manifestos
Main parties
- Conservatives: Invitation to join the government of Britain
- Labour: A future fair for all
- Liberal Democrats: Change that works for you/Building a fairer Britain
Smaller parties already holding seats
- Democratic Unionist Party: Let's Keep Northern Ireland Moving Forward
- Plaid Cymru: Think Different. Think Plaid.
- Respect Party: Homes, Jobs and Peace, Manifesto for a Hung Parliament
- Scottish National Party: Elect a local champion.
- Sinn Fein: 2010 Westminster Election Manifesto
- Social Democratic and Labour Party: For Your Future
- Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force: Invitation to join the government of the United Kingdom
Other parties
- Alliance for Green Socialism: General Election Manifesto 2010
- British National Party: Democracy, Freedom, Culture and Identity
- British National Front: National Front 2010 Election Manifesto
- Christian Peoples Alliance: Not by Bread Alone
- Communist Party of Britain: Britain For The People Not The Bankers
- Co-operative Party: A Cooperative Agenda For A Fourth Term
- English Democrats Party: English Democrats 2010 Manifesto
- Green Party of England and Wales: Fair is Worth Fighting For
- Green Party of Northern Ireland: Make A Difference Vote Green
- Liberal Party: Principle, Policy and Purpose
- Mebyon Kernow: Key Campaign Priorities
- Official Monster Raving Loony Party: The Monster Raving Loony Manifesto
- Pirate Party UK: The 2010 Election Manifesto of the Pirate Party UK
- Scottish Green Party: A Living Wage For All, Protect Public Services, Support New Green Jobs
- Scottish Socialist Party: For An Independent Socialist Scotland
- Socialist Equality Party: Socialist Equality Party Manifesto for the 2010 British General Election
- Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition: No To Cuts and Privatisation! Make the Bosses Pay!
- Traditional Unionist Voice: Putting It Right
- United Kingdom Independence Party: Empowering the people
- United Kingdom Libertarian Party: For Life, Liberty, and Prosperity
News coverage
- Newspapers
- General Election 2010 at the Daily Express
- UK General Election 2010 at the Financial Times
- General Election 2010 at The Guardian
- Election 2010 at The Independent
- General Election 2010 at the Daily Mail
- General Election 2010 at the Daily Mirror
- General Election 2010 at The Sun
- General Election 2010 at The Daily Telegraph
- General Election 2010 at The Times
- TV
- General Election 2010 at BBC News Online
- Vote 2010 at Channel 4 News
- Election 2010 at ITV News
- Decision Time at Sky News
- Other
Polls
- Latest polling results and seat projections from Angus Reid Public Opinion
- Voting Intentions from UK Polling Report with Swing Calculator
- Electoral Calculus