2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

Main article: United States presidential election, 2004

United States presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2004

November 2, 2004

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 21 0 Popular vote 2,938,095 2,793,847 Percentage 50.92% 48.42%

County Results   Kerry—80-90%   Kerry—50-60%   Bush—<50%   Bush—50-60%   Bush—60-70%   Bush—70-80%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 21 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Pennsylvania was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 2.5% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or swing state. Although the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1992, the margins of victory have become smaller over the past elections. On election day, Kerry won the state with 50.9% of the vote, but won only 13 of the 67 counties in Pennsylvania. Most of these 13 counties have the highest populations in the commonwealth. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was winning the County of Philadelphia with 80% of the vote.

Bush was the first President elected to two terms without carrying the Keystone State either time since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916.

Primaries

Eligibility

In order to vote in the primary, one must have been:

1. "A citizen of the United States for at least one month before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
2. "A resident of Pennsylvania and the election district in which the individual desires to register and vote for at least 30 days before the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
3. "At least 18 years of age on or before the day of the next primary, special, municipal, or general election."
4. A registered member of the party holding the primary

Convicted felons could not vote from prison and were not allowed to register to vote for five years after being released from prison.

Registration

Individuals could register to vote at County Voter Registration offices, through the mail, at a Department of Transportation office, or at various other government agency offices.

Voters must have been registered 30 days prior to the election in order to be eligible to vote.

Democratic primary election

The Democratic primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Democrats only.

Results

100% of precincts reporting

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
John Kerry	585,683	74.1%	150
Howard Dean	79,799	10.1%	1
John Edwards	76,762	9.7%	0
Dennis Kucinich	30,110	3.8%	0
Lyndon Larouche	17,528	2.2%	0
Uncommitted	-	2.2%	27
Total	789,882	100%	178

Note: Twenty seven delegates remained uncommitted until they reached the floor of the convention. Kerry eventually received all 178 delegates from Pennsylvania.

Republican primary election

The Republican primary took place on April 27, 2004. It was open to registered Republicans only. Incumbent President George W. Bush ran unopposed.

General election campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.

1. D.C. Political Report: Toss-Up
2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
3. CNN: Kerry
4. Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
5. Newsweek: Leans Kerry
6. New York Times: Leans Kerry
7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
8. Research 2000: Leans Kerry
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Battleground
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Al Gore won here in 2000 with barely 50% of the vote. In late October 2004, the state was split at 47% on whether or not to approve of Bush. But Kerry won the poll 48% to 46% in the last Mason Dixon poll. Throughout the election of 2004, Kerry won most of the polls in the upper 40% to lower 50% range. However, Bush polled within the margin of error, usually in the mid 40% range. In the last Real Clear Politics average Kerry was leading with 48% and by almost a 1% margin.

Fundraising

Bush raised $5,030,349. Kerry raised $4,998,861.

Advertising and visits

Bush campaigned heavily in the state and dropped by here over 20 times in 2004. But it wasn't enough to swing the undecided voters as Kerry won the state's electors with almost 51% of the vote, slightly higher than Gore.

Analysis

This Kerry victory can be attributed to the overwhelmingly Democratic cities of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Erie. While it should be noted that smaller Kerry-held cities which voted for the Senator by narrow margins assisted him in advancing his margin over President Bush, many political analysts underscored the fact that if Philadelphia were excluded, President George W. Bush would have won Pennsylvania by a fairly slim margin, with 2,663,748 versus 2,395,890 for Kerry. Interestingly, though Pennsylvania is closely divided in most elections, it has not voted Republican in a Presidential election since 1988.

Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were the biggest contributors to Kerry's victory in Pennsylvania. However, many independents in suburban Philadelphia counties (Bucks, Delaware, Montgomery, and somewhat in Chester) voted for Kerry, which may well have been the deciding factor. Kerry also had narrow margins of victory around cities like Allentown, Scranton, Erie, and the traditionally Democratic Pittsburgh suburbs; he also garnered many votes in certain rural areas such as parts of the Poconos and the Laurel Highlands, and in cities like Reading, Johnstown, Harrisburg, and State College. Bush's margins were extremely large in Central Pennsylvania and the sparsely populated Northern Tier, with traditional GOP cities such as Lancaster, Lebanon, York, Altoona, Huntingdon, and Williamsport strongly throwing their support behind him. This area, along with rural western Maryland, was clearly the most conservative in the Northeast.

Results

United States presidential election in Pennsylvania, 2004
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Democratic	John Kerry	2,938,095	50.9%	21
	Republican	George W. Bush (Inc.)	2,793,847	48.4%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	21,185	0.4%	0
	Green	David Cobb	6,319	0.1%	0
	Constitution	Michael Peroutka	6,318	0.1%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	2,656	0.1%	0
	Independent	Write Ins	1,170	0.1%	0
Totals			5,769,590	100.00%	21
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)					60.5%

By county

County	Kerry%	Kerry#	Bush%	Bush#	Others%	Others#
Adams	32.6%	13,764	66.9%	28,247	0.5%	217
Allegheny	57.2%	368,912	42.1%	271,925	0.7%	4,632
Armstrong	38.7%	12,025	60.9%	18,925	0.5%	147
Beaver	51.1%	42,146	48.4%	39,916	0.6%	481
Bedford	26.5%	6,016	73.2%	16,606	0.3%	57
Berks	46.4%	76,309	53.0%	87,122	0.6%	1,056
Blair	33.4%	18,105	66.0%	35,751	0.6%	322
Bradford	33.5%	8,590	66.0%	16,942	0.5%	120
Bucks	51.1%	163,438	48.3%	154,469	0.6%	1,909
Butler	35.2%	30,090	64.3%	54,959	0.4%	376
Cambria	48.7%	32,591	50.8%	34,048	0.5%	344
Cameron	33.0%	794	66.5%	1,599	0.5%	13
Carbon	48.8%	12,223	50.0%	12,519	1.2%	301
Centre	47.8%	30,733	51.6%	33,133	0.6%	387
Chester	47.5%	109,708	52.0%	120,036	0.5%	1,079
Clarion	35.2%	6,049	64.4%	11,063	0.4%	72
Clearfield	39.5%	13,518	60.0%	20,533	0.5%	182
Clinton	41.7%	5,823	57.5%	8,035	0.8%	109
Columbia	39.7%	10,679	59.7%	16,052	0.5%	138
Crawford	41.8%	16,013	57.3%	21,965	0.9%	344
Cumberland	35.8%	37,928	63.8%	67,648	0.5%	506
Dauphin	45.6%	55,299	53.9%	65,296	0.5%	613
Delaware	57.1%	162,601	42.3%	120,425	0.5%	1,512
Elk	45.4%	6,602	54.1%	7,872	0.5%	76
Erie	53.9%	67,921	45.6%	57,372	0.5%	605
Fayette	53.2%	29,120	45.8%	25,045	1.0%	542
Forest	38.4%	989	61.1%	1,571	0.5%	13
Franklin	28.3%	16,562	71.4%	41,817	0.3%	190
Fulton	23.5%	1,475	76.1%	4,772	0.4%	24
Greene	49.3%	7,674	50.0%	7,786	0.7%	105
Huntingdon	32.6%	5,879	67.2%	12,126	0.3%	53
Indiana	43.7%	15,831	55.9%	20,254	0.4%	163
Jefferson	31.0%	6,073	68.4%	13,371	0.6%	116
Juniata	28.0%	2,797	71.4%	7,144	0.6%	65
Lackawanna	56.3%	59,573	42.3%	44,766	1.4%	1,480
Lancaster	33.6%	74,328	65.8%	145,591	0.6%	1,359
Lawrence	49.2%	21,387	50.5%	21,938	0.3%	117
Lebanon	32.5%	18,109	66.6%	37,089	0.8%	467
Lehigh	51.0%	73,940	48.4%	70,160	0.7%	991
Luzerne	51.1%	69,573	47.7%	64,953	1.1%	1,502
Lycoming	31.3%	15,681	67.9%	33,961	0.8%	407
McKean	36.1%	6,294	62.8%	10,941	1.1%	191
Mercer	48.2%	24,831	51.0%	26,311	0.8%	422
Mifflin	29.1%	4,889	69.8%	11,726	1.1%	187
Monroe	49.6%	27,967	49.6%	27,971	0.7%	404
Montgomery	55.6%	222,048	44.0%	175,741	0.5%	1,802
Montour	35.0%	2,666	64.3%	4,903	0.7%	55
Northampton	50.1%	63,446	49.0%	62,102	0.9%	1,192
Northumberland	39.3%	14,602	60.0%	22,262	0.7%	270
Perry	27.9%	5,423	71.6%	13,919	0.4%	85
Philadelphia	80.4%	542,205	19.3%	130,099	0.3%	1,765
Pike	40.6%	8,656	58.4%	12,444	0.9%	199
Potter	28.5%	2,268	70.8%	5,640	0.7%	54
Schuylkill	44.8%	29,231	54.6%	35,640	0.6%	398
Snyder	29.0%	4,348	70.5%	10,566	0.5%	69
Somerset	34.9%	12,842	64.7%	23,802	0.4%	134
Sullivan	36.9%	1,213	62.6%	2,056	0.5%	16
Susquehanna	38.6%	7,351	60.8%	11,573	0.6%	116
Tioga	30.9%	5,437	68.4%	12,019	0.7%	115
Union	35.4%	5,700	64.1%	10,334	0.6%	89
Venango	38.1%	9,024	61.2%	14,472	0.7%	163
Warren	41.7%	8,044	57.1%	10,999	1.2%	230
Washington	50.1%	48,225	49.6%	47,673	0.3%	279
Wayne	36.7%	8,060	62.4%	13,713	0.9%	194
Westmoreland	43.5%	77,774	56.0%	100,087	0.5%	835
Wyoming	38.8%	4,982	60.6%	7,782	0.5%	68
York	35.5%	63,701	63.7%	114,270	0.7%	1,298

By congressional district

Kerry won 10 of 19 congressional districts.

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
1st	15%	84%	Bob Brady
2nd	12%	87%	Chaka Fattah
3rd	53%	47%	Phil English
4th	54%	45%	Melissa Hart
5th	61%	39%	John E. Peterson
6th	48%	52%	Jim Gerlach
7th	47%	53%	Curt Weldon
8th	48%	51%	James C. Greenwood
			Mike Fitzpatrick
9th	67%	33%	Bill Shuster
10th	60%	40%	Don Sherwood
11th	47%	53%	Paul E. Kanjorski
12th	49%	51%	John Murtha
13th	43%	56%	Joe Hoeffel
			Allyson Schwartz
14th	30%	69%	Michael F. Doyle
15th	50%	50%	Pat Toomey
			Charlie Dent
16th	61%	38%	Joe Pitts
17th	58%	42%	Tim Holden
18th	54%	46%	Tim Murphy
19th	64%	36%	Todd Platts

Electors

Main article: List of United States presidential electors, 2004

Technically the voters of Pa. cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Pa. is allocated 21 electors because it has 19 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 21 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 21 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 21 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

1. Lynne Abraham
2. Richard Bloomingdale
3. Blondell Reynolds Brown
4. Robert Casey Jr.
5. Eileen Connelly
6. H. William DeWeese
7. John Dougherty
8. Richard E. Filippi
9. William George
10. Renee Gillinger
11. Jennifer Mann
12. Robert J. Mellow
13. Dan Onorato
14. Juan Ramos
15. Stephen R. Reed
16. T.J. Rooney
17. Jonathan Saidel
18. John F. Street
19. Rosemary Trump
20. Sala Udin
21. Constance H. Williams