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→Double-digit inflation predictions: per BLP must be precise about whether subjects named or not in RS! fixed chrono so its a comprehensible narrative,not confusing one
Undid revision 598261931 by Carolmooredc (talk)→Double-digit inflation predictions: no. It is not "synthesis" to exercise common sense, nor is all syntheisis contrary to policy.Don't EW
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In a series of articles on his personal website, Murphy states that he agreed to a bet that that there would be a year/year increase in the seasonally adjusted [[United States Consumer Price Index|Consumer Price Index]] of over 10% by 2013, and notes that he lost the bet.<ref name="consultingbyrpm.com"/>
In a series of articles on his personal website, Murphy states that he agreed to a bet that that there would be a year/year increase in the seasonally adjusted [[United States Consumer Price Index|Consumer Price Index]] of over 10% by 2013, and notes that he lost the bet.<ref name="consultingbyrpm.com"/>


In December 2012 [[New York Times]] column [[Paul Krugman]] wrote that [[University of California, Berkeley]] Professor of Economics [[J. Bradford DeLong]] had attacked "a guy who has been predicting double-digit inflation for years but remains absolutely committed to his framework all the same" and linked to DeLong's column naming Murphy.<ref>{{cite web | url=http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/30/is-our-austerians-learning/ | title=Is Our Austerians Learning? | work=[[New York Times]] | date=December 30, 2012 | accessdate=1 November 2013}}</ref> The next day Krugman criticized Murphy's belief that "his failed inflation forecast is OK" because it is attributable to "huge deflationary downdraft that offset the inflationary impact of Fed expansion." Krugman wrote that if that was true, "we should be hailing Ben Bernanke for preventing a catastrophic deflation."<ref>Paul Krugman, [http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/on-not-learning-continued/?_r=0 On Not Learning, Continued], New York times, December 31, 2012.</ref> Murphy replied on his blog to Krugman and DeLong's criticisms, saying "my price inflation wager has ''nothing'' to do with Austrian business cycle theory" and that Krugman was using a "macro model" which does not apply to Austrian theory which he wrote relies on "heterogeneous capital goods" and distortion of investment flows from artificially low interest rates. He admitted he was not sure why his inflation prediction was wrong.<ref>[http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2013/01/learning-from-brad-delong-and-paul-krugman.html Learning From Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman], Robert P. Murphy blog, January 2, 2013.</ref>
In a column criticizing economists "who stick with their ideology no matter how badly it performs in practice", [[Paul Krugman]] noted that [[University of California, Berkeley]] Professor of Economics [[J. Bradford DeLong]] had attacked Murphy for "predicting double-digit inflation for years but remain[ing] absolutely committed to his framework" despite the predictions being unfulfilled.<ref>{{cite web | url=http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/30/is-our-austerians-learning/ | title=Is Our Austerians Learning? | work=[[New York Times]] | date=December 30, 2012 | accessdate=1 November 2013}}</ref> In December 2012 Krugman again addressed Murphy's failed inflation predictions, criticizing Murphy's belief that "his failed inflation forecast is OK" because it is attributable to "huge deflationary downdraft that offset the inflationary impact of Fed expansion." Krugman wrote that if that was true, "we should be hailing Ben Bernanke for preventing a catastrophic deflation."<ref>Paul Krugman, [http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/31/on-not-learning-continued/?_r=0 On Not Learning, Continued], New York times, December 31, 2012.</ref> Murphy replied on his blog to Krugman and DeLong's criticisms, saying "my price inflation wager has ''nothing'' to do with Austrian business cycle theory" and that Krugman was using a "macro model" which does not apply to Austrian theory which relies on "heterogeneous capital goods" and artificially low interest rates distortion of investment flows into various sectors. He admitted he was not sure why his inflation prediction was wrong.<ref>[http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog/2013/01/learning-from-brad-delong-and-paul-krugman.html Learning From Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman], Robert P. Murphy blog, January 2, 2013.</ref> In a May 2013 piece published by ''[[The American Conservative]]'', Murphy wrote about Krugman's predictions regarding fiscal austerity and the [[Budget sequestration in 2013|2013 U.S. government budget sequestration]].<ref>Robert P. Murphy, [http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/heads-krugman-wins-tails-austerity-loses/ Heads Krugman Wins, Tails ‘Austerity’ Loses], [[The American Conservative]], May 23, 2013.</ref>


In April 2013 Murphy challenged Krugman to a debate and unnamed supporters of Murphy promised to donate $100,000 to a charity if Krugman would debate Murphy on economic policy issues.<ref>{{cite news|last=Carney|first=John|title=Will Paul Krugman be Shamed Into Debating an Austrian Economics Wunderkind?|url=http://www.cnbc.com/id/39832879|accessdate=19 April 2013|newspaper=CNBC website|date=Oct 25,2010}}</ref> A promotional website was established for the challenge. Krugman called the proposed debate a "public circus" and stated "Why should I dignify that totally-wrong doctrine — that doctrine that’s gotten everything wrong — by giving them a platform?”<ref>Lehrer, Brian (June 4, 2012). [http://www.wnyc.org/story/213836-paul-krugman-weighs/ "The Brian Lehrer Show: Paul Krugman Weighs In."]</ref><ref>[http://www.krugmandebate.com/ www.krugmandebate.com].</ref> In May 2013 in ''[[The American Conservative]]'' Murphy detailed his views about Krugman's predictions regarding fiscal austerity and the [[Budget sequestration in 2013|2013 U.S. government budget sequestration]].<ref>Robert P. Murphy, [http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/heads-krugman-wins-tails-austerity-loses/ Heads Krugman Wins, Tails ‘Austerity’ Loses], [[The American Conservative]], May 23, 2013.</ref>
In 2013 Murphy challenged Krugman to a debate and unnamed supporters of Murphy promised to donate $100,000 to a charity if Krugman would debate Murphy on economic policy issues.<ref>{{cite news|last=Carney|first=John|title=Will Paul Krugman be Shamed Into Debating an Austrian Economics Wunderkind?|url=http://www.cnbc.com/id/39832879|accessdate=19 April 2013|newspaper=CNBC website|date=Oct 25,2010}}</ref> A promotional website was established for the challenge. Krugman called the proposed debate a "public circus" and stated "Why should I dignify that totally-wrong doctrine — that doctrine that’s gotten everything wrong — by giving them a platform?”<ref>Lehrer, Brian (June 4, 2012). [http://www.wnyc.org/story/213836-paul-krugman-weighs/ "The Brian Lehrer Show: Paul Krugman Weighs In."]</ref><ref>[http://www.krugmandebate.com/ www.krugmandebate.com].</ref>


==Books==
==Books==

Revision as of 17:23, 5 March 2014

For other people named Robert Murphy, see Robert Murphy (disambiguation).
Robert P. Murphy
Born (1976-05-23) May 23, 1976 (age 48)
NationalityAmerican
Academic career
FieldFinancial Economics, Trade
InstitutionPacific Research Institute
(2007–present)
Institute for Energy Research
(2007–present)
Hillsdale College
(2003–2006)
School or
tradition		Austrian School
Alma materNew York University (Ph.D.) 2003
Hillsdale College (B.A.) 1998

Robert P. Murphy (born 23 May 1976) is an American economist, consultant and author. He is an economist with the Institute for Energy Research (IER) specializing in climate change.[1] He also is a senior fellow in business and economic studies at the Pacific Research Institute,[2] a research fellow with the Independent Institute,[3] and an associated scholar at the Ludwig von Mises Institute.[4] In addition to economic subjects, Murphy writes about, and has taught classes in, anarcho-capitalism on the Mises Institute website.[5][6]

Life and work

Murphy received a BA in economics at Hillsdale College in 1998 and a Ph.D. in economics at New York University in 2003.[1]

From 2003 until 2006, Murphy was Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics at Hillsdale College.[3] He moved to Nashville, Tennessee, where he still lives, in 2006[7] to work for Laffer Investments, where he maintained portfolio models and co-authored research papers during 2006-2007.[8] He now is a financial consultant who provides forecasts regarding interest and exchange rates, growth, and inflation.[1][7][9]

Murphy has been published in The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, The Review of Austrian Economics,[1] the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics[10] and the Journal of Private Enterprise.[11] He has written for The Freeman,[12] The American Conservative[13] and LewRockwell.com.[14] He previously wrote a column for Townhall.com.[15] Murphy has written for The Washington Times,[16] Forbes[17] and Barron's Magazine.[18]

Murphy has written numerous articles on free-market economics for lay audiences, as well as study guides to works of Ludwig von Mises and Murray Rothbard.[1] Murphy is author of the 2007 book The Politically Incorrect Guide to Capitalism. Murphy's Mises Institute colleague[19] Gene Epstein wrote in Barron's Magazine that “Murphy makes a compelling case for the unfettered free market, or what his intellectual antagonists would call "free-market fundamentalism", but writes Murphy is sometimes too irreverent.[20]

Murphy's 2009 book The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal blamed the Depression on government policies, in particular monetary policy during the presidency of Calvin Coolidge, before Herbert Hoover took office.[21][neutrality is disputed]

Murphy has testified before the United States Congress on behalf of the IER, discussing climate change and energy related topics.[22][23][24][25]

Double-digit inflation predictions

In 2009, Murphy discussed various economic policies of the Bush and Obama administrations, which he called "incredible assaults on the private sector from the central government". He stated that the policies of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke and President Obama would lead to double-digit inflation with high unemployment and could facilitate the abandonment of the US Dollar by the end of the Obama Presidency. Murphy warned that soaring prices for gasoline and imported products sold at Wal-Mart might be blamed by Obama Administration officials on "an attack on the Dollar by foreign speculators" and used by them to replace the Dollar with the Amero or some other currency "issued by a supranational organization". Murphy urged investors to purchase an "emergency stockpile" of physical gold and silver, and predicted double-digit inflation.[26] In July 2009, Murphy proclaimed that the economy would be “in the toilet for a decade” and predicted “20+ percent price inflation.”[27]

In a series of articles on his personal website, Murphy states that he agreed to a bet that that there would be a year/year increase in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index of over 10% by 2013, and notes that he lost the bet.[27]

In a column criticizing economists "who stick with their ideology no matter how badly it performs in practice", Paul Krugman noted that University of California, Berkeley Professor of Economics J. Bradford DeLong had attacked Murphy for "predicting double-digit inflation for years but remain[ing] absolutely committed to his framework" despite the predictions being unfulfilled.[28] In December 2012 Krugman again addressed Murphy's failed inflation predictions, criticizing Murphy's belief that "his failed inflation forecast is OK" because it is attributable to "huge deflationary downdraft that offset the inflationary impact of Fed expansion." Krugman wrote that if that was true, "we should be hailing Ben Bernanke for preventing a catastrophic deflation."[29] Murphy replied on his blog to Krugman and DeLong's criticisms, saying "my price inflation wager has nothing to do with Austrian business cycle theory" and that Krugman was using a "macro model" which does not apply to Austrian theory which relies on "heterogeneous capital goods" and artificially low interest rates distortion of investment flows into various sectors. He admitted he was not sure why his inflation prediction was wrong.[30] In a May 2013 piece published by The American Conservative, Murphy wrote about Krugman's predictions regarding fiscal austerity and the 2013 U.S. government budget sequestration.[31]

In 2013 Murphy challenged Krugman to a debate and unnamed supporters of Murphy promised to donate $100,000 to a charity if Krugman would debate Murphy on economic policy issues.[32] A promotional website was established for the challenge. Krugman called the proposed debate a "public circus" and stated "Why should I dignify that totally-wrong doctrine — that doctrine that’s gotten everything wrong — by giving them a platform?”[33][34]

Books

  • Chaos Theory (2002) – A short work composed of two essays on market anarchy; one discussing the production of defense services, and one describing the provision of private criminal and civil justice.
  • The Politically Incorrect Guide to Capitalism (April 2007) – A volume in The Politically Incorrect Guide series published by Regnery Publishing. ISBN 978-1-5969-8504-9 OCLC 79860752
  • The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal (April 2009) ISBN 978-1-5969-8096-9 OCLC 315239348
  • Lessons for the Young Economist (2010) ISBN 978-1-9335-5088-6 OCLC 681711737
  • How Privatized Banking Really Works – Integrating Austrian Economics with the Infinite Banking Concept (2010) co-written with L. Carlos Lara

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e Robert P. Murphy profile, Institute for Energy Research, accessed December 9, 2013.
  2. ^ Robert P. Murphy, Why Government Doesn't—and Can't—Manage Resources Like a Private Business, Library of Economics and Liberty, December 2, 2013.
  3. ^ a b Robert P. Murphy profile, Independent Institute, accessed December 5, 2013.
  4. ^ Robert P. Murphy profile at Ludwig von Mises Institute, accessed December 5, 2013.
  5. ^ Robert P. Murphy, Learn Anarcho-Capitalism Online, Mises Daily, July 24, 2012.
  6. ^ Robert P. Murphy, But Wouldn't Warlords Take Over?, Mises Daily, July 7, 2005.
  7. ^ a b Robert P. Murphy biography as economist and consultant to USATrustOnline.com.
  8. ^ Written Testimony of Robert P. Murphy, Institute for Energy Research Before the House Committee on Financial Services On the Matter of Oil Prices and the U.S. Dollar, July 24, 2008, Committee website, accessed December 8, 2013.
  9. ^ Robert P. Murphy, Ph.D. (economic consultant) website at ConsultingbyRPM.com.
  10. ^ Resumé/CV, Robert P. Murphy website, accessed December 6, 2013.
  11. ^ Robert P. Murphy, Coordination: A Critique of Daniel Klein, The Journal of Private Enterprise, 25(2), 2010, 117-127, 117.
  12. ^ Robert P. Murphy archives at The Freeman website.
  13. ^ Robert P. Murphy archives at The American Conservative website.
  14. ^ Robert P. Murphy archives at LewRockwell.com.
  15. ^ Robert Murphy columns archive, Townhall.com, accessed December 6, 2013.
  16. ^ Robert P. Murphy, Are Real Economists Bears?, The Washington Times, February 19, 2010, accessed via Highbeam.
  17. ^ Robert P. Murphy, Memo To The Fed: Stop Those Rate Cuts, Forbes, March 16, 2008.
  18. ^ Robert P. Murphy, Capitalism is validated by "mechanism-design" theory, Barron's Magazine, May 12, 2008
  19. ^ "Senior Fellows, Faculty Members, and Staff." Mises.org
  20. ^ Epstein, Gene (9 July 2007). "Nine Good Reasons to Hit the Beach". Barron's Magazine.
  21. ^ Raymond J. Keating, "Book review: The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Great Depression and the New Deal", The Freeman, December 22, 2010.
  22. ^ Climate Change: Robert P. Murphy, Congressional Testimony, July 18, 2013, Federal Document Clearing House, Inc., accessed via Highbeam
  23. ^ Oil Prices and the Weak Dollar: Robert P. Murphy, Congressional Testimony, July 24, 2008, Federal Document Clearing House, Inc., accessed via Highbeam
  24. ^ Impact of Federal Reserve Policies on Gas Prices:robert P. Murphy, Congressional Testimony, May 25, 2011, Federal Document Clearing House, Inc., accessed via Highbeam.
  25. ^ Written Testimony of Robert P. Murphy, Senior Economist, Institute for Energy Research, Before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works On the Matter of “The ‘Social Cost of Carbon’: Some Surprising Facts” July 18, 2013; Senate Committee website accessed December 8, 2013.
  26. ^ Robert P. Murphy, "Killing the Currency", The American Conservative, December 10, 2009.
  27. ^ a b Murphy, Robert P. (January 2, 2013). "Learning from Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman."
  28. ^ "Is Our Austerians Learning?". New York Times. December 30, 2012. Retrieved 1 November 2013.
  29. ^ Paul Krugman, On Not Learning, Continued, New York times, December 31, 2012.
  30. ^ Learning From Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman, Robert P. Murphy blog, January 2, 2013.
  31. ^ Robert P. Murphy, Heads Krugman Wins, Tails ‘Austerity’ Loses, The American Conservative, May 23, 2013.
  32. ^ Carney, John (Oct 25,2010). "Will Paul Krugman be Shamed Into Debating an Austrian Economics Wunderkind?". CNBC website. Retrieved 19 April 2013. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  33. ^ Lehrer, Brian (June 4, 2012). "The Brian Lehrer Show: Paul Krugman Weighs In."
  34. ^ www.krugmandebate.com.

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