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2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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This is an old revision of this page, as edited by ZX2021 (talk | contribs) at 18:16, 31 January 2022 (Removed fake poll (https://twitter.com/SeanMcElwee/status/1488202687615311880)). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

For related races, see 2022 United States Senate elections.
Not to be confused with 2022 Pennsylvania Senate election.

2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Pat Toomey
Republican



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The 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. Senators, elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, as well as a gubernatorial election, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

The election is expected to be competitive and important to determine whether Democrats or Republicans will control the Senate in 2023. This is attributed to the seat being an open Republican-held one located in a state that President Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.[1] Pennsylvania is seen by many Democrats as the best possible pickup of all the Class 3 seats.[2]

On October 5, 2020, incumbent two-term Republican Senator Pat Toomey announced that he would not run for re-election to a third term and currently plans "to go back to the private sector" at the conclusion of his term.[3][4] Previously, he had openly said he was considering running for the governorship instead of running for re-election to the Senate.[5]

Republican primary

Campaign

Incumbent Senator Pat Toomey announced that he would not run for re-election, stating that he wished to return to the private sector.[6] By October 2021, businessman Jeff Bartos, who had posted strong fund-raising totals, and veteran Sean Parnell, who had the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, emerged as the race's two front-runners.[7] Parnell's campaign was rocked in November 2021, after Parnell's ex-wife, Laurie Snell, testified in court that Parnell strangled and spit on her, abused their children, and told her to "go get an abortion".[8] Even prior to these allegations, doubts had arisen among Republicans regarding Parnell's ability to fundraise, and it became widely assumed that Parnell would suspend his campaign if he did not win custody of his children.[9] On November 22, 2021, Snell was given custody of the children and Parnell subsequently announced that he was suspending his campaign.[10] On November 30, with Parnell out of the race, Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor and television personality, announced his candidacy.[11] Oz's campaign entered an immediate controversy over whether Oz himself was a resident of Pennsylvania, as he had lived in Cliffside Park, New Jersey for most of his life and had only registered to vote in Pennsylvania in October 2020.[11][12] The January 2022 entrance of David McCormick prompted attacks for his past detraction of Trump and criticism of "America First" economic policies from Oz allies.[13]

Candidates

Declared

Republican candidates[a]

Withdrew

  • Sean Parnell, U.S. Army veteran, author, and nominee for Pennsylvania's 17th congressional district in 2020 (endorsed McCormick)[10]
  • Craig Snyder, former Chief of Staff to U.S. Senator Arlen Specter[26][27][28]

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Kathy Barnette
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Individuals
Jeff Bartos
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
Robert Jeffries
Individuals
David McCormick
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Local officials
Party officials
Organizations
Individuals
Mehmet Oz
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
Local officials
Party officials
Individuals
Carla Sands
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Represeanttives
Sean Parnell (withdrawn)
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Senators officials
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Craig Snyder (withdrawn)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kathy
Barnette 		Jeff
Bartos 		Sean
Gale 		Mehmet
Oz 		Sean
Parnell 		Carla
Sands 		Everett
Stern 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 13–16, 2021 1,062 (LV) ± 3.0% 8% 3% 1% 19% – 7% – 11% 51%
Echelon Insights (R) December 1–3, 2021 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 7% 4% 4% 11% – 5% 0% 6%[c] 63%
November 22, 2021 Parnell withdraws from the race
Civiqs (D) October 31 – November 5, 2021 799 (LV) ± 3.5% 7% 6% 2% – 31% 8% – – 54%
Franklin & Marshall College October 18–24, 2021 184 (RV) ± 8.8% 3% 2% 0% – 11% 2% – 3% 78%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[A] October 11–14, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% – 7% – – 27% 4% – 5% 57%
Franklin & Marshall College August 9–15, 2021 154 (RV) ± 10.9% 6% 4% 3% – 14% 1% – 7% 66%

Democratic primary

Campaign

The first two major Democratic candidates to announce were Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania John Fetterman and state representative Malcolm Kenyatta.[72] Both Fetterman and Kenyatta were considered to be staunchly progressive Democrats, but the two men were felt to appeal to different demographics.[72] By July 2021, Fetterman was considered the frontrunner in the Democratic primary, as a result of his high name recognition and strong fundraising.[73] U.S. Representative Conor Lamb, a moderate, center-left Democrat, entered the race on August 6, 2021.[74]

As the campaign progressed, Lamb and Fetterman became the two most prominent candidates, with Kenyatta and Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh also receiving media attention. Fetterman had maintained his frontrunner status as of December, and the other three contenders were viewed as mainly competing with each other in order to claim the anti-Fetterman mantle.[75]

Candidates

Declared

Democratic candidates[a]

Withdrew

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Val Arkoosh
State legislators
Organizations
John Fetterman
Labor Unions
Organizations
Individuals
Malcolm Kenyatta
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Individuals
Conor Lamb
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Val
Arkoosh 		John
Fetterman 		Malcolm
Kenyatta 		Conor
Lamb 		Sharif
Street 		Other Undecided
GQR Research (D)[B] December 14–16, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% 44% 20% 15% – 2% 12%
GBAO (D)[C] November 16–23, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 5% 42% 15% 16% – – 21%
Civiqs (D) October 31 – November 5, 2021 929 (LV) ± 3.2% 2% 52% 5% 12% 2% 6% 21%
Franklin & Marshall College October 18–24, 2021 208 (RV) ± 8.2% 4% 34% 5% 12% 5% 3% 37%
Franklin & Marshall College August 9–15, 2021 175 (RV) ± 10.2% 6% 33% 5% 12% 0% 3% 42%
Data for Progress (D)[C] May 7–14, 2021 302 (LV) ± 6.0% 5% 40% 9% 21% 2% 8%[e] 14%

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

Libertarian candidates

Potential

Withdrew

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[131] Tossup November 19, 2021
Inside Elections[132] Tilt R January 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[133] Tossup November 3, 2021
RCP[134] Tossup January 10, 2022

Polling

Jeff Bartos vs. John Fetterman
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Bartos (R) 		John
Fetterman (D) 		Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[D] May 10–19, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.7% 36% 45% 19%
Data for Progress (D)[C] May 7–14, 2021 310 (LV) ± 5.6% 38% 48% 14%
Jeff Bartos vs. Conor Lamb
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Bartos (R) 		Conor
Lamb (D) 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[C] May 7–14, 2021 341 (LV) ± 5.3% 42% 43% 15%
Mehmet Oz vs. John Fetterman
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mehmet
Oz (R) 		John
Fetterman (D) 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[C] December 3–5, 2021 581 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 44% 13%
Hypothetical polling
Sean Parnell vs. John Fetterman
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		John
Fetterman (D) 		Undecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[D] May 10–19, 2021 450 (LV) ± 4.7% 42% 42% 16%
Data for Progress (D)[C] May 7–14, 2021 310 (LV) ± 5.6% 40% 48% 12%
Sean Parnell vs. Conor Lamb
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Sean
Parnell (R) 		Conor
Lamb (D) 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[C] May 7–14, 2021 341 (LV) ± 5.3% 44% 42% 14%

Notes

  1. ^ a b The images in this gallery are in the public domain or are otherwise free to use. This gallery should not be construed as a list of major or noteworthy candidates. If a candidate is not included in this gallery, it is only because there are no high-quality, copyright-free photographs of them available on the Internet.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Jeffries with 2%; Xu with 1%
  4. ^ Conor Lamb received the most delegate votes of 169, but failed to reach the self-imposed threshold of a two-thirds majority vote, meaning that no candidate will receive the endorsement of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.
  5. ^ Houlahan with 8%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Parnell's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by Kenyatta's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by Fetterman's campaign
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Collective PAC

References

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