2016 Conservative Party leadership election
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During the 2015 general election campaign, David Cameron, the current Leader of the Conservative Party, announced that he would not seek a third term and is therefore expected to stand down before the next general election,[1] which would trigger the next Conservative Party leadership election. Although it is not known when the election would take place, the winner would also succeed Cameron as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, due to the Conservative Party currently being the majority party in the House of Commons.[2]
Candidates
Publicly expressed interest
As of October 2015, the following potential candidates have publicly expressed interest in running for party leader.
- Nicky Morgan, Secretary of State for Education and Minister for Women and Equalities since 2014; MP for Loughborough since 2010.[3]
Potential
As of October 2015, the following individuals have received speculation as potential leadership candidates.
- Adam Afriyie, MP for Windsor since 2005[4]
- Heidi Allen, MP for South Cambridgeshire since 2015[1]
- Graham Brady, Chairman of the 1922 Committee since 2010; MP for Altrincham and Sale West since 1997[5]
- James Cartlidge, MP for South Suffolk since 2015[4]
- Stephen Crabb, Secretary of State for Wales since 2014; MP for Preseli Pembrokeshire since 2005[1]
- Tracey Crouch, Minister for Sport since 2015; MP for Chatham and Aylesford since 2010[1]
- Liam Fox, Secretary of State for Defence (2010–2011); Chairman of the Conservative Party (2003–2005); MP for North Somerset since 1992[6]
- Michael Gove, Secretary of State for Justice since 2015; Secretary of State for Education 2010–2014; MP for Surrey Heath since 2005[7]
- Chris Grayling, Leader of the House of Commons since 2015; Secretary of State for Justice 2012–2015; MP for Epsom and Ewell since 2001[4]
- Justine Greening, Secretary of State for International Development since 2012; Secretary of State for Transport (2011–2012); MP for Putney since 2005
- Matthew Hancock, Paymaster General and Minister for the Cabinet Office since 2015; MP for West Suffolk since 2010[1]
- Jeremy Hunt, Secretary of State for Health since 2012; Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport 2010–2012; MP for South West Surrey since 2005[8]
- Boris Johnson, Mayor of London since 2008; MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip since 2015; MP for Henley 2001–2008[9]
- Andrea Leadsom, Minister of State at the Department of Energy and Climate Change since 2015; MP for South Northamptonshire since 2010 [10]
- Phillip Lee, MP for Bracknell since 2010[1]
- Theresa May, Home Secretary since 2010; MP for Maidenhead since 1997[11]
- Penny Mordaunt, Minister of State for the Armed Forces since 2015; MP for Portsmouth North since 2010[4]
- Jesse Norman, MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire since 2010[4]
- George Osborne, Chancellor of the Exchequer since 2010; First Secretary of State since 2015; MP for Tatton since 2001[12]
- Priti Patel, Minister of State for Employment since 2015; MP for Witham since 2010[4]
- Owen Paterson, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (2012–2014); Secretary of State for Northern Ireland (2010–2012); MP for North Shropshire since 1997[13]
- Dan Poulter, Parliamentary Undersecretary of State for Health Services (2012–2015); MP for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich since 2010[1]
- Dominic Raab, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Justice since 2015; MP for Esher and Walton since 2010[4]
- Anna Soubry, Minister of State for Small Business, Industry and Enterprise since 2015; MP for Broxtowe since 2010[4]
- Rory Stewart, Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs since 2015; MP for Penrith and The Border since 2010[1]
- Rishi Sunak, MP for Richmond (Yorks) since 2015[1]
- Liz Truss, Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs since 2014; MP for South West Norfolk since 2010[14]
- Thomas Tugendhat, MP for Tonbridge and Malling since 2015[1]
Declined
The following individuals have been the focus of media speculation as being possible leadership candidates, but have since ruled out a bid.
- Sajid Javid, Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and Skills since 2015; Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport 2014–2015; MP for Bromsgrove since 2010[15]
Opinion polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Michael Gove |
Philip Hammond |
Jeremy Hunt |
Sajid Javid |
Boris Johnson |
Theresa May |
Nicky Morgan |
George Osborne |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos MORI[16] | 19–23 September 2015 | 395 Conservative voters[a] | ± ? | 4% | — | — | 3% | 29% | 18% | — | 32% | 12% |
| 1,255 British residents[b] | 3% | — | — | 4% | 27% | 17% | — | 15% | 34% | |||
| Survation/Huffington Post UK[17][18] | 21–22 September 2015 | 303 Conservative voters[a] | ± ? | — | — | — | — | 30% | 16% | — | 25% | 29% |
| 1,008 British residents[b] | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 25% | 11% | 2% | 15% | 37% |
References
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Kirkup, James (25 March 2015). "By 2020, the Conservative Party leader will be... not who you expect". Daily Telegraph.
- ^ "Election results: Conservatives win majority". BBC News. 8 May 2015.
- ^ Frances Perraudin (1 October 2015). "Nicky Morgan considers standing for Tory leader when Cameron quits". The Guardian.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Craig Woodhouse (4 October 2015). "At least 20 Tories are lining up to replace Cameron". The Sun.
- ^ "Conservative leadership race: Who could replace David Cameron?". Daily Telegraph. 24 March 2015.
- ^ "Liam Fox overtakes Theresa May in Tory leadership poll". The Commentator. 4 August 2015.
- ^ Decca Aitkenhead (5 October 2012). "Michael Gove: the next Tory leader?". The Guardian.
- ^ "Jeremy Hunt: the next Tory leader?". The Guardian. 19 February 2014.
- ^ Rowena Mason (13 August 2015). "Boris Johnson hints at Conservative leadership vacancy from 2018". The Guardian.
- ^ Jane Merrick (9 May 2015). "Election 2015: Who could replace David Cameron as leader of the Tory party?". The Independent.
- ^ Gaby Hinsliff (3 February 2015). "Can Theresa May make it to the top?". The Guardian.
- ^ Lynsey Barber (8 July 2015). "July Budget 2015: George Osborne biggest Budget winner as chancellor becomes favourite for next Tory leader". CityAM.
- ^ Josh May (1 October 2015). "Owen Paterson develops checklist for future Tory leader candidates". PoliticsHome.
- ^ Andrew Gimson (6 March 2014). "Andrew Gimson profiles Liz Truss, seen by some as a future Tory leader". ConservativeHome.
- ^ Owen Bennett (4 October 2015). "Watch Sajid Javid Rule Out Standing In The Tory Leadership Contest When David Cameron Quits". HuffPost UK.
- ^ "Boris Johnson most popular prospective Conservative leader". Ipsos MORI. 1 October 2015.
- ^ "Conservative Party Conference Poll" (PDF). Survation. 5 October 2015.
- ^ Paul Waugh (1 October 2015). "Boris Johnson Is The Public's Choice As Next Tory Leader, Huffington Post UK/Survation Poll Finds". HuffPost UK.
