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European national parliaments with representatives from right-wing populist parties in 2016. The darker the shade of blue, the more power those parties have in government.

The “Patriotic Spring”[1] (sometimes called Nativist Spring or Patriotic Wave) is the term for an ongoing global phenomenon that started in the early 21st century, where a number of nationalist, right-wing populist parties are rising to power in various legislative leadership elections. The phenomenon is primarily occurring in Europe, but has also included the United States and India, among others.

The movement is widely seen as a reaction to the rise of Islamic terrorism in the early 2000’s, starting with the September 11 attacks in 2001. After a few initial victories in the early 2000’s, this movement saw a resurgence in the mid-2010’s, primarily due to the onset of the European migrant crisis in 2015, and thus featured a staunch opposition to immigration from most Arabic countries.[2][3]

Another element of this phenomenon is an opposition to globalization. Thus, many of these parties openly express skepticism of multinational organizations, such as the European Union, the United Nations and the International Monetary Fund, whose powers are ceded from sovereign nations, as established in the West since Westphalian sovereignty. These parties claim that such groups have been on a power-ceding trend in recent decades, particularly in relation to the federalizing nature of the European Union.[4] As a result, such parties also emphasize economic protectionism and opposition to free trade. As a result of the opposition to globalization and free trade, perhaps the most defining feature of these parties is a promotion of nativist policies that feature a strong appeal to patriotism and nationalism.[3]

Proponents of such parties and movements advocate for them on the grounds of restoring law and order, respecting national sovereignty and maintaining individual national cultures. Critics have accused these proponents of supporting neo-fascism, and using such tactics as fear-mongering, racism and xenophobia.[5]

Overview

Terminology

Patriotic Spring is a term coined by the Dutch MP and Leader of the Party for Freedom, Geert Wilders.[6][7] The term is reminiscent of the Arab Spring of 2011. However, since no governments are being overthrown, some analysts[who?] prefer to compare the period to the Pink Tide of South America, where from roughly 1998 to 2008 a series of elections across the continent have turned countries from right-wing or centrist governments to left-wing ones, primarily ones that are anti-American, populist, authoritarian with strong protectionist leanings with an aim of a strong welfare safety net.[8][9]

Political leanings

The "Patriotic Spring" parties are of a wide political spectrum, with their most universal goals being an opposition to globalism, immigration, mainstream liberalism, mainstream conservatism and social engineering. Parties within this group include economic liberals such as the United Kingdom Independence Party, who pursue greater free trade, and Economic nationalism such as the Front National of France, who pursue higher taxation on the wealthy and greater protectionism for domestic industries. United States President Donald Trump pursues a mixture of both. Equally, this grouping has a large difference on social views; the Law and Justice party of Poland is socially conservative, with an aim to curtail civil rights such as LGBT rights. Conversely, the Party for Freedom of the Netherlands is socially liberal in many aspects, and seeks to expand these liberties.[10]

All parties within this group are nativist, anti-Islam, anti-immigration and can arguably be placed into the following terms:

Although the parties are often categorized as "right-wing," many of them are in disagreement with mainstream conservatives, and thus are sometimes characterized as aligned with the alt-right.[7]

Start dates

The term has no strict start date, unlike the Pink Tide or Arab Spring. Early events include the 2014 Indian general election, the Israeli legislative election of 2015, and the Polish legislative election of 2015. The two most defining events of the trend are widely understood as the United Kingdom European Union referendum, or "Brexit," where the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, and the United States presidential election of 2016, in which Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States.[23][24]

Europe

Switzerland

The first major instance of a modern right-wing populist party rising to power in a European nation was in Switzerland. The Swiss People’s Party (SVP) was founded in 1971, and in its first election that same year, surged to the fourth-largest party in parliament, winning 23 seats and 11% of the popular vote. From that election up to 1995, it remained the fourth-largest party.

Then, in 1999, under the new leadership of Ueli Maurer and Christoph Blocher, the party surged with a 17-seat gain and became the second-largest party in parliament. It was in 2003 when the party finally rose to become the largest party, gaining another 12 seats and surpassing the Social Democrats. In every election since then, it has remained the largest party in the country. In the most recent election in 2015, the party gathered a record total of 29.4% of the popular vote, which amounted to 65 seats in parliament.

Hungary

The Fidesz party was first founed in 1988 as a youthful, libertarian, anti-communist party. After eventually changing from a liberal party to a more conservative party in 1994, Fidesz first gained power in 1998, and party leader Viktor Orbán became prime minister. Although Fidesz narrowly lost in the 2002, the party rebounded by coming in first in the European Parliament elections just two years later, winning 12 seats and thus accounting for half of the Hungarian delegation to Parliament. Fidesz increased their majority in the European Parliament with an even larger landslide victory in the next elections in 2009, winning 14 out of 22 seats.

Since Viktor Orbán returned as Prime Minister in 2010, the Fidesz government has passed over 200 new laws, drafted a new constitution, and held a popular referendum on European Union migrant quotas.

Riding the momentum of their gains in the European Parliament, Fidesz won another landslide in the 2010 parliamentary elections, returning Orbán to the office of prime minister after winning 53% of the popular vote and gaining a 68% supermajority in parliament. Fidesz retained its majority in the subsequent 2014 elections.

With a supermajority in parliament, the Fidesz government subsequently adopted over 200 new laws and enacted drastic change in the Hungarian government, culminating in a new constitution in 2011, which was the subject of widespread controversy,[25][26][27] although it was ultimately accepted as legitimate in 2013 by the Council of Europe.[28] In 2016, the government held a popular referendum asking the voters whether or not they wanted to support the EU’s mandatory migrant quota. The population overwhelmingly voted against these quotas, with just over 98% (over 3 million total) voting “No,” and less than 2% (just over 56,000) voting “Yes.”[29]

Poland

The Polish Law and Justice (PiS) party, founded by identical twin brothers Lech and Jarosław Kaczyński in 2001, first rose to power after simultaneously winning both the parliamentary election and presidential election of 2005; the former saw Jarosław become prime minister while the latter saw Lech ascend to the presidency.

The party was then defeated in parliament in both 2007 and 2011, and lost the presidency in 2010. However, the party saw a comeback in 2015, once again simultaneously winning in that year’s presidential election and parliamentary election, even against most polling trends. In doing so, it became the first party in Polish political history to receive a majority of Parliamentary seats on the back of a campaign run on eurosceptic sentiment, nationalism, and very strong opposition to the German Migrant Resettlement Plan.[30] As a result, Andrzej Duda became president while Beata Szydło became prime minister. Under this government, Prime Minister Szydło rejected the EU’s compulsory migrant quotas, and in the aftermath of the 2016 Brussels bombings, declared that Poland’s borders were closed to any migrants from the Middle East.[31]

Sweden

Under Jimmie Åkesson’s leadership, the Sweden Democrats party won its first parliamentary seats in its over 20-year history in 2010, and more than doubled those results in 2014.

The Sweden Democrats (SD) were founded in 1988, but failed to win anything more than occasional local elections for over 20 years.

In 2005, Jimmie Åkesson took over as party chairman, and subsequently oversaw the party’s rise to success in 2010, when the party won 20 seats in the Riksdag (the largest gain of any party that year). In the following elections in 2014, the party more than doubled its previous showing and won 49 seats (once again the largest gain that year), surging to become the third-largest party in parliament. In that year’s concurrent European Parliament election, the SD achieved over 9% of the vote and won two seats – its first-ever victory in the European Parliament.

Denmark

The Danish People’s Party (DPP) was founded in 1995 by Pia Kjærsgaard. Ever since its foundation, the DPP consistently gained seats in the parliament from 1998 up to 2007, remaining the third-largest party in parliament for over a decade. The DPP gained one seat in the 1999 European Parliament election, and maintained only one seat for the next 10 years. During this time, the DPP cooperated with the coalition government between the Venstre party and the Conservative People’s Party, often earning support for key political stances in return despite not having any cabinet positions. Among other major issues, the party had a role in writing a number of immigration laws that have since been called among the strictest in all of Europe.[32] In 2009, the DPP finally gained one more seat in the European Parliament, thus bringing its total to two.

After suffering its first loss in parliament – losing 3 seats in the 2011 election – Kjærsgaard stepped down as party leader and was replaced by Kristian Thulesen Dahl. Under Dahl’s leadership, the party saw its largest gains yet in both parliament and the European parliament. In the 2014 European Parliament election, the DPP won its largest share of seats yet by winning 4 seats, and thus became the largest Danish party in the European Parliament. In the parliamentary elections the following year, the DPP won a landslide of 15 seats, thus surpassing Venstre to become the second-largest party in parliament. The DPP then formed a right-wing “Blue bloc” coalition with Venstre, the Conservative People’s Party, and the Liberal Alliance, which maintained a narrow majority of 90 seats over the left-wing “Red bloc’s” 89 seats.[33] Although opinion polling widely held Dahl as the most popular of the right-wing leaders, and thus the favorite to become the next prime minister, Dahl ultimately refused to be considered for the position.[33]

Finland

The Finns Party (PS) was founded in 1995, and has been led by Timo Soini since 1997. The party fared poorly in parliamentary, presidential, and European Parliament elections up until 2011, when the party won 34 seats in the 2011 parliamentary election (the only party that year to gain any seats), and thus became the third-largest party. In 2014, the party came in third in the European Parliament election with roughly 13% of the popular vote, although this equated to only 2 seats.

The Finns Party’s greatest victory came in the 2015 parliamentary election, when it ultimately came in second with 38 seats. As a result, the party was brought into the majority coalition government with the Centre Party and the National Coalition Party, after being an opposition party for its entire existence. This included Soini becoming both Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs.[34]

United Kingdom

Main article: United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, 2016
Nigel Farage of UKIP has been seen as one of the most influential figures in the “Patriot Spring.” He championed the “Brexit” vote and has chaired three Eurosceptic coalitions within the European Parliament.

A major turning point in the “Patriot Spring” was the ”Brexit” vote in 2016, led by the UK Independence Party (UKIP) that had been founded in 1993.[35]

Throughout its history, UKIP has almost never won a seat in parliament, but has instead fared much better in the European Parliament elections. After gaining only 3 seats in its first election in 1999, UKIP came in third in 2004, under the leadership of Roger Knapman, and won 10 seats. In 2009, after a very public endorsement and a donation of £100,000 from former Conservative donor Stuart Wheeler, UKIP, under the new leadership of Nigel Farage, came in second in the parliamentary elections and rose to 13 seats total. UKIP then solidified its status in the European Parliament by winning another 11 seats in the 2014 election, thus rising to 24 seats total and becoming the largest British party in the European Parliament; it was the first time in over 100 years that a party other than the Conservative or Labour Party won the popular vote or the largest number of seats in a national election.[36][37]

The results of the UK European Union membership referendum.
  Leave
  Remain

Throughout this time, despite never having a seat in British Parliament, UKIP’s calls for a referendum on European Union membership began to gain popularity as UKIP continued to dominate European Parliament elections. Prime Minister David Cameron finally promised to organize such a referendum if the Conservatives won a majority in the 2015 general election, which they did.[38] The referendum was arranged for June 23, 2016. Despite most opinion polling favoring the “Remain” option, 52% of British voters ultimately voted to “Leave,” therefore satisfying UKIP’s primary goal.[35]

Austria

The Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) is the oldest of Europe’s right-wing parties, founded in 1956. However, it struggled to actually become a dominant force in Austrian politics, often only gaining some power as part of a coalition government. Although the party briefly rose in the 1999 legislative election and became the second-largest party in the National Council, it fell again rather sharply in the next election just three years later. In 2005, a number of FPÖ leaders defected to form the slightly more moderate Alliance for the Future of Austria, which failed to gain any traction.

After the defections, Heinz-Christian Strache assumed leadership and helped to repair the party’s image, making gains in both the 2008 and 2013 elections, and becoming the third-largest party in parliament. In the 2016 presidential election, the FPÖ’s nominee, Norbert Hofer, won the first round with nearly 1.5 million votes (35% total), and became the first FPÖ candidate to ever advance to the second round of a presidential election. [39][40][41][42] However, Hofer ultimately lost the second round to The Greens nominee Alexander Van der Bellen.[43]

Italy

Italy has seen a number of right-wing populist parties that had risen and fallen in the previous decades, from the Lega Nord (LN) and Forza Italia (FI) in the 1990s, to the Brothers of Italy (Fdl) and the Popular Area (AP) in the 2010s. While the LN and FI had electoral successes in the early 1990s and 2000s, both parties saw a consistent decline by the 2010s. Meanwhile, the Fdl and AP saw very minimal electoral results in their early years.

However, one party arose in the late 2000s as a result of the broader wave of Euroscepticism: The Five Star Movement (M5S), founded in 2009. While the M5S has maintained some of the familiar tenets of the Patriot Spring parties – including populism, an anti-establishment rhetoric, economic protectionism, and Euroscepticism[44][45][46][47] – it has established itself as not a right-wing party, and indeed rather difficult to place on the left-right political spectrum, by affirming other stances such as environmentalism.[48]

After its formation, the M5S saw overwhelming success in its very first election, in 2013. That year, the M5S won 109 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 54 seats in the Senate, thus becoming the third-largest party in Italy. Shortly after the election, the dissolution of the second-largest party – The People of Freedom – led to M5S becoming the second-largest party. In the 2014 European Parliament election, M5S saw the largest gains of any party that year, winning 17 seats and becoming the second-largest Italian party in the European Parliament as well.

The M5S was the most vocal opponent of the 2016 constitutional referendum, supported by the governing Democratic Party and Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. The referendum's failure resulted in Renzi's resignation as Prime Minister of Italy. M5S leader Beppe Grillo has vowed that, if the M5S wins the next election and he becomes Prime Minister, he would push for a referendum on whether or not Italy should leave the Eurozone.[49]

The Netherlands

Geert Wilders, the man who coined the term “Patriot Spring,” was first elected to the Dutch House of Representatives in 2002, originally a member of the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). After briefly changing to an independent in 2004, he formed his own party, the Party for Freedom (PVV), in 2005.

Geert Wilders, the founder of the Party for Freedom, and the man who coined the term “Patriot Spring.”

The new party quickly gained traction, and in its first-ever election in 2006, gained 9 seats. In its first election for the European Parliament in 2009, the PVV came in second and won 4 seats. The PVV then nearly doubled its size in the House in the 2010 election, winning another 15 seats and quickly rising to become the third-largest party. As a result, the PVV formed a minority government with the VVD and prime minister Mark Rutte, without having any ministers in Rutte’s cabinet. However, the PVV eventually withdrew from this government in April 2012, citing differences over the budget cuts at the Catshuis.

After this, the PVV lost 9 seats in the 2012 election, but still remained the third-largest party. The new coalition government, consisting of the VVD and the left-wing Labour Party (PvdA), ousted both the PVV and the center-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA). The PVV won 4 seats once again in the 2014 European Parliament election, thus resulting in a net swing of 0.

In the 2017 general election, the PVV became the second-largest party in the parliament for the first time in its history, winning five more seats and increasing its overall total to 20 seats.[50]

Germany

The newest party in the movement is the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which was founded in 2013. Originally founded in September 2012, as a group called “Electoral Alternative 2013,” it was created out of a movement to oppose German federal policies in response to the European debt crisis. Members of this movement decided to create their own party, thus officially transitioning Electoral Alternative into the AfD in February 2013.

Although AfD lost the 2013 election (falling just 0.3% below the required 5% threshold of representation), it scored an upset victory in the following year’s European Parliament election, making the largest gain of any party that year by winning 7 seats.

In July 2015, after continued infighting among the party’s founding members, Frauke Petry was elected as chairwoman of the party. Despite being such a new party and currently holding no seats in the Bundestag, the party has been consistently rising in opinion polls, and is currently projected to become the third-largest party in 2017.

France

The National Front (FN) party was founded in 1972 by Jean-Marie Le Pen. With Le Pen himself as a very controversial figure, FN struggled for many decades to gain traction, primarily due to the majoritarian two-ballot system of voting in the country’s elections. Thus, although FN would often perform well in the first round of voting due to successfully consolidating its base, it would consistently be defeated in the second round due to a consolidation of opposition votes by other parties. However, in contrast to the party’s often poor performances domestically, the National Front has consistently been one of the most important parties in the European Parliament.

The party’s big breakthrough came in the 1986 elections, since President François Mitterrand had reverted the country’s elections back to a single-round system of party-list proportional representation in the previous year. Thus, with the two-round system out of the way, FN won 2.7 million total votes (just shy of 10% of the total popular vote), which amounted to 35 seats in the National Assembly. However, when the proportional representation system was repealed and the two-round system was restored, the 1988 elections saw the FN lose all but one seat. This sole seat was eventually lost as well in 2002.

After Marine Le Pen took over the National Front from her father in 2011, the party has made significant gains in local and European Parliament elections.

In the same year, however, the FN had its greatest achievement in a presidential election, when Le Pen shockingly advanced to the second round of voting in the 2002 election, narrowly defeating the Socialist Party candidate Lionel Jospin by 0.7%. This marked the first time in French history that a far-right candidate advanced to the second round of voting, and also marked the first time that both major candidates were from the right side of the political spectrum. Nevertheless, Le Pen went on to lose the second round to the Rally for the Republic nominee, Jacques Chirac. In the greatest landslide in French history, Le Pen received 5.5 million votes, which amounted to about 17.8% of the popular vote, to Chirac’s 25.5 million (82.2%).

The party’s performance in elections to the European Parliament predate its victories in the French legislature, as it first rose to prominence in the 1984 elections, with 11% of the vote and 10 total seats. After maintaining this amount for over 10 years, the party lost half its seats in the European Parliament in 1999. It then gained 2 more seats in 2004, and then lost 4 seats in 2009, thus dropping to only 3 seats total.

In 2011, Le Pen announced his retirement as president of FN, and he was succeeded by his daughter, Marine Le Pen. Marine sought to soften the party’s image and distance it from her father, and her efforts were ultimately successful as the FN began to make a gradual comeback. Le Pen herself polled highly as a serious contender in the first round of the 2012 presidential election; although she ultimately came in third, her percentage of the popular vote was 17.9% (roughly 6.4 million total votes), which was the highest percentage ever won nationwide by the party. In that same year’s concurrent legislative elections, the party won 2 seats.

The greatest national victory achieved under Marine’s new leadership came about in the 2014 European Parliament elections, when the FN, after consistently high polling for the last 5 months, won 24 seats and became the largest French party in the European Parliament.

Another significant breakthrough for the FN under Marine’s leadership has been in local elections. In the 2014 municipal elections, FN won mayoralties in 12 cities, and in cities of over 1,000 inhabitants, the party’s total as a result of the election was 1,546 and 459 councilors at two different levels of local government. In the 2015 regional elections, FN came in first in the first round of voting, with just over 6 million votes and 27.7% total of the popular vote (although it was subsequently defeated in the second round).

Marine ran again in the 2017 presidential election. She came in second in the first round with about 21% of the vote, behind Emmanuel Macron’s 24%. She then went on to lose the second round to Macron, but garnered about 34% of the popular vote.

India

After Narendra Modi became the leader of the BJP in 2013, the party won a landslide in the 2014 election, and Modi became Prime Minister of India.

In India, the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was first founded in 1980, as a faction that split from the larger Janata Party after enjoying early success in the late 1970’s. The BJP slowly rose to power over the course of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, with a handful of state victories and gradually-increasing nationwide victories. In 1996, despite finally becoming the largest party in parliament, the BJP could not form a successful coalition due to having merely a plurality, not a majority, of the lower house. Although the BJP eventually managed to form a coalition, known as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), after the 1998 election, the NDA was defeated 6 years later, and the BJP returned to being an opposition party.

In 2013, Narendra Modi became the leader of BJP. Modi led the party to victory in 2014; in the largest landslide in Indian history, the party gained 166 seats, amounting to a total of 282 seats overall.[51] Modi subsequently rose to the office of Prime Minister.[52]

United States

Main article: United States presidential election, 2016

In the United States, the Patriot Spring was most symbolized by the successful presidential campaign of businessman and former reality television star Donald Trump, despite his campaign largely being expected to lose. Trump particularly made the issue of free trade one of the cornerstones of his campaign, criticizing such trade deals as the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, while also vowing to secure the border between the United States and Mexico, as well as severely restrict immigration from Middle Eastern countries.

Donald Trump, President of the United States.

Despite a vast majority of polls, commentators and scholars projecting that Trump would be defeated by rival Hillary Clinton, Trump went on to win the election by a margin in the Electoral College, while narrowly losing the popular vote.[53][54] With Trump’s election, the Republican Party enjoyed majorities in the House of Representatives, the Senate and a majority of governorships and state legislatures across the country.[55][56]

See also

References

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  28. ^ "Ferenc Kumin — Council of Europe's Jagland: 'Hungarians Have Gone..." Ferenckumin.tumblr.com.
  29. ^ National Election Office "National Election Office of Hungary". {{cite web}}: Check |url= value (help)
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  53. ^ Pace, Julie; Furlow, Robert (November 9, 2016). "Trump claims astounding victory as America's 45th president". Associated Press. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  54. ^ Flegenheimer, Matt; Barbaro, Michael (November 9, 2016). "Donald Trump Is Elected President in Stunning Repudiation of the Establishment". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
  55. ^ Bosman, Julie; Davey, Monica (November 11, 2016). "Republicans Expand Control in a Deeply Divided Nation". The New York Times. Retrieved June 6, 2017. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  56. ^ Phillips, Amber (2016-11-12). "These 3 maps show just how dominant Republicans are in America after Tuesday". Washington Post. Retrieved 2017-05-06.
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