Accession of Turkey to the European Union

Turkey's formal application to join the European Community—the organization that has since developed into the European Union—was made on April 14th, 1987. Turkey has been a European Union (then the European Economic Community) Associate Member since 1964. It was officially recognised as a candidate for membership on December 12th, 1999 at the Helsinki summit of the European Council. Negotiations were started on October 3, 2005, and the process is likely to take at least a decade to complete. The membership bid has become the central controversy of the ongoing enlargement of the European Union.

History

Background

The modern Republic of Turkey is the successor state to the Ottoman Empire, the sole Islamic power in Europe for almost seven centuries before it sank into a decline that led some to call it the "sick man of Europe".^[1] After the Empire's collapse in the wake of World War I, Turkish revolutionaries led by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk emerged victorious in the Turkish War of Independence, establishing Turkey as it currently exists today. Atatürk, now Prime Minister and later President of Turkey, implemented a series of reforms that modernized Turkey and moved it more towards European culture.^[2] During World War II, Turkey remained neutral until February 1945, when it joined the Allies. During the Cold War, Turkey allied itself with the United States, taking part in the Marshall Plan in 1947, joining as a member state the Council of Europe in 1949,^[3] and joining NATO in 1952.^[4]

1960s - 1990s

Turkey first applied for associate membership in the European Economic Community in 1959, and on September 12, 1963 signed the "Agreement Creating An Association Between The Republic of Turkey and the European Economic Community", also known as the Ankara Agreement. This agreement came into effect the following year on December 12, 1964. The Ankara Agreement sought to integrate Turkey into a customs union with the EEC whilst acknowledging the final goal of membership.^[5] In November 1970, a further protocol called the "Additional Protocol" established a timetable for the abolition of tariffs and quotas on goods traded between Turkey and the EEC.^[2]

1980 saw a temporary freeze in relations as a result of the 1980 military coup following political and economic instability, though the recommencement of multiparty elections in 1983 saw Turkish-EEC relations fully restored. On April 14, 1987, Turkey submitted its application for formal membership into the European Community. The European Commission responded in December 1989 by confirming Ankara’s eventual membership but also by deferring the matter to more favorable times, citing Turkey’s economic and political situation, as well its poor relations with Greece and the conflict with Cyprus as creating an unfavorable environment with which to begin negotiations.^[6] This position was confirmed again in the Luxembourg European Council of 1997 in which accession talks were started with central and eastern European states and Cyprus, but not Turkey. During the 1990s, Turkey proceeded with a closer integration with the European Union by agreeing to a customs union in 1995. Moreover, the Helsinki European Council of 1999 proved a milestone as the EU recognized Turkey as a candidate on equal footing with other potential candidates.

2000s

The next significant step in Turkish-EU relations came with the December 2002 Copenhagen European Council. According to it, "the EU would open negotiations with Turkey 'without delay' if the European Council in December 2004, on the basis of a report and a recommendation from the Commission, decides that Turkey fulfills the Copenhagen political criteria".

With the 2002 election of the pro-European Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP), a number of reforms led to increasing stability both politically and economically. In 2004, as part of the drive to enter a reunified Cyprus into the EU, the Turkish government supported the UN-backed Annan Plan for Cyprus. This plan was accepted by Turkish Cypriots, but rejected by the Greek Cypriots. At the same time, a three-decade-long period of hyperinflation ended, with inflation reduced to 6% from annual levels of 75% during the mid-1990s.^[7]

Oddly enough however, Greece was the first country to support Turkey's accession into the EU. Greece voted yes for Turkish entrance because they believe, even though Turkey is politically and socially behind at the moment, that with the help of the EU they can make enough changes to put them up to par with other European nations.

The political reform program of the Erdoğan government continued. This included the abolition of capital punishment, crackdown on torture, and more rights for its Kurdish population. In response to these developments, the European Commission recommended that the negotiations should begin in 2005, but also added various precautionary measures. The EU leaders agreed on December 16, 2004 to start accession negotiations with Turkey from October 3, 2005. Despite an attempt by the Austrian government to offer Turkey less than full membership, EU accession negotiations were officially launched.

Turkey's accession talks have since been dogged by a number of domestic and external problems. Several European states such as Austria have made their reluctance to allow Turkey into Europe clear. The issue of Cyprus continues to be a major obstacle to negotiations. European officials have commented on the slowdown in Turkish reforms which, combined with the Cyprus problem, has led the EU’s enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn to warn of an impeding ‘train crash’ in negotiations with Turkey.^[8] Despite these setbacks, Turkey closed its first chapter of negotiations in June 2006.

The earliest date that Turkey could enter the EU is 2013, the date when the next six-year EU budget will come into force (2013–2019). Ankara is currently aiming to comply with EU law by this date,^[9] but Brussels has refused to back 2013 as a deadline.^[10] It is believed that the accession process will take at least fifteen years.^[11]

Timeline

1959 - Turkey applies for associate membership in the European Economic Community.

1963 - Association Agreement signed, acknowledging the final goal of membership.

1964 - Association Agreement comes into effect.^[12]

1970 - Protocol signed providing a timetable for the abolition of tariffs and quotas on goods.

1980 - Freeze in relations following the 1980 Turkish coup d'état.

1983 - Relations fully restored following elections.

1987 - Application for formal membership into the European Community.

1989 - European Commission refuses to immediately begin accession negotiations, citing Turkey’s economic and political situation, poor relations with Greece and their conflict with Cyprus, but overall reaffirming eventual membership as the goal.

1995 - European Union-Turkey Customs Union is formed.

1999 - European Council recognizes Turkey as a candidate on equal footing with other potential candidates.

2002 - European Council states that "the EU would open negotiations with Turkey 'without delay' if Turkey fulfills the Copenhagen criteria".

2002 - 2002 Turkish general election returns the pro-European Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power.

2004 - Turkish government and Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus back the Annan Plan for Cyprus.

2004, December - European Union agrees to start negotiations.

2005, October - Opening of six chapters of the Acquis: Right of Establishment & Freedom to provide Services, Company Law, Financial Services, Information Society & Media, Statistics and Financial Control

2006, June - Chapter on Science and Research opened and closed.

2006, December - Continued dispute over Cyprus prompts EU to freeze talks on eight chapters and state no chapters would be closed until a resolution is found^[13]

2007, March - Chapter on Enterprise and Industrial Regulations opened^[14]

2007, June - Chapters on Statistics and Financial Control opened, but the opening of the chapter on economic and monetary policy was blocked by French President Nicholas Sarkozy.^[15]

Turkish membership disputes

Turkey’s entry into the EU may have profound consequences on the future direction of the EU.

Opposition to Turkey's entry into the EU varies among the public of the current EU member states, as does political support or opposition to the entry bid. The issues mentioned by some of those objecting to Turkey's EU candidacy can be divided among those inherent to Turkey's situation, those that involve internal issues about human rights, democracy, and related matters, and those concerning Turkey's open external disputes with its neighbours. There is much contention over whether some of these arguments are used by people more as a proxy against peoples true feelings about Turkish membership in the sense that the country is not culturally European and therefore should be denied entry at all.

Economic

In 2004 and 2005, economic growth was above 7%,^[16] almost four times higher than average growth in the EU.^[17]Despite the strong economic gains in 2002-06, which were largely due to renewed investor interest in emerging markets, IMF backing, and tighter fiscal policy, the economy is still burdened by a high current account deficit, high debt and high unemployment.^[18]

The opening of talks about the Economic and Monetary Policy acquis chapter of Turkey's accession bid was expected to begin in June 2007, but talks were stalled by France.^[19] French President Nicholas Sarkozy has notably stated that "Turkey has no place in the European Union."^[20]

Population growth

The huge increase of the Turkish Population is another problem for Turkish accession to the European Union. Statistics shows that the birth rate is declining in the entire continent of Europe. Especially in Eastern Europe and Russia population growth is in minus stage. The EU member states already set a goal to solve the impact of the ageing population.link title However in Turkey the birth rate is high and the death rate is low. Thus since 1980 Turkish population has increased 1 million a year. According to 1980 statistics Turkish population was 45 million. In 2007 the population of Turkish has reached 73 million. Therefore in 27 years 28 million of people were added to existed population of Turkey. In the face of this problem the Turkish government plan set a goal to lowering rate population growth was failed. This also affects the economic development of Turkey. Between 1980 and 2002 GNP growth rate had actually fallen behind the rate of increase population. From point of view of social policy, one of the most problems a growing population brings unemployment. Supply is rising continuously in the labour market and the volume of the investment cannot keep pace with. In contrary recent Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan supports the increase of the Turkish population. He supports the idea that post modern Turkish economy can manage the growth of the population. He stated “I don’t like to see Turkey become an ageing population country similar to the European states”.star televisionu 2007 seçimler

However the EU member states are still worrying the population problem of Turkey. According to European scholars if Turkey will become member state how the EU will cope with mass number of unskilled Turkish labours immigration to EU member states. The existence of a large labour surplus in Turkey forces the jobless to look for employment somewhere outside the country. This is already major problem for Germany. In Germany almost 3 million of Turkish labours are working and most of them demanded German citizenship. The Merkel government has taken an action slow down the Turkish immigration to Germany.

Geographic

87% of Turkey's territory lies in geographical Asia, including the Turkish capital. Turkey's membership would mean that the European Union's external borders would reach Middle Eastern nations such as Syria, Iraq and Iran. According to Carl Bildt, Swedish foreign minister, "[The accession of Turkey] would give the EU a decisive role for stability in the eastern part of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, which is clearly in the strategic interest of Europe."^[21]

Foreign relations

Cyprus

The island of Cyprus is still divided after the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974, following a coup d'etat by Nikos Sampson against the Cypriot government of Makarios III and fully supported by the Greek military junta of 1967-1974 under its de facto leader Dimitrios Ioannides. Turkey refuses to acknowledge the Republic of Cyprus (an EU member) as the sole authority on the island, but instead recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north. Turkey and Turkish Cypriots, for 30 years rejected all UN-proposals, but backed the 2004 Annan Plan for Cyprus aimed at reunification of the island, but was subsequently rejected by Greek Cypriots on the grounds that it did not meet their needs. That the latest proposal included maintained residence rights for the many Anatolian Turks that were brought to Cyprus after the invasion and their descendants, and that Greek-Cypriots who lost their property after the Turkish invasion would be granted only a restricted right of return probably played a role in these recent sudden change of positions. Although the outcome was not expected and received much criticism in the EU as well, the accession date of the Republic of Cyprus was already set before the referandum. The Turkish government has refused to officially recognize the state of Cyprus (a current EU member State) until its admittance into the EU.^{[citation needed]} This issue alone is of great diplomatic concern because it paradoxically implies that Turkey does not fully recognize one of the sides it is negotiating with. One possible solution, apart from an unlikely change of strategy by the Turkish government, would be the introduction of a bureaucratic or diplomatic circumvention or escamotage, such as the EU adopting special negotiation rules for Turkey. The other 'solution', or rather outcome, is that the EU prefers to stick with its existing rules, known as acquis communautaire, and further delay Turkey's accession. Turkey's non-recognition of the Republic of Cyprus has led to complications within the Customs Union. Under the customs agreements Turkey already signed as a precondition to start negotiations in 2005, it is obliged to open its ports to Cypriot planes and vessels, but Turkey refuses this and insists it will only do so as part of a settlement to the Cyprus problem. Greek Cypriots have subsequently threatened to veto accession talks unless Turkey complies.

Greece

Greece has been supportive overall of Turkish membership, with Greek Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis declaring, "Full compliance, full accession" in December 2006.^[22] In 2005 the European Commission referred to relations between Turkey and Greece as "continuing to develop positively"^[23] while also citing the lack of progress made by Turkey in dropping their claim of casus belli over a dispute about territorial waters boundaries.^[23]

Armenia

Another factor is Turkey's economic embargo and border crossing closures currently maintained against Armenia, due to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh; since the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1994, Armenia has occupied up to 14% of Azerbaijan, and supports, but does not recognize, Karabakhi independence. Both Turkey and the European Union support Azerbaijan’s claims to Nagorno-Karabakh and view the situation as an occupation of Azeri land.^[24] However, EU reports^[25] state that Turkey should take active measures to resolve this situation before eventual accession, while then-President of the Commission, Romano Prodi said: "Personally, I do not like that the Armenian-Turkish border gate is closed. I do not exclude that the issue of closed borders could be one of the preconditions for Turkey's membership."^[26] Turkey has insisted that the route of the lucrative Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline bypass Armenian territory.

Religious

If Turkey were to join the EU, it would be the only non-Christian country to have done so (99.8 % of Turkey's population^[27] is Muslim). Samuel Huntington regards Turkey as a split country in his book Clash of Civilizations, which could drift off to Islamism and/or nationalism if European integration fails. Indeed, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has warned the EU that Turkey's rejection could provoke a "clash of civilizations".^[17] In its March 2007 special report on the European Union, The Economist speculated that should Turkey be rebuffed by the EU, the Muslim world would perceive the EU as a "Christian club", not only damaging relations between the West and the Middle East while also alienating the fifteen million Muslims already living in EU member states.^[8]

On the other hand, every time Turks treat the Eu as a Christian club, many Europeans fear, because of that arguments denial of the strict priority of democratic rules over religious rules, that Turkey basically does not fully want to accept that democratic principle. Those Europeans see that argument as a denial of one of the fundamental principles of their democratic order.

Similarly, the sceptics also point to the persecutions and discriminations of non-Muslims Turks. The Turkish state has a very tight de facto alliance with Sunni Islam. Thousands of Sunni imam's receive state salaries, whereas Shiite or Alevi barely receive anything, and Christian nothing at all. Worse, christian Turks are pesecuted so massively that many prefer to flee the country. The Turkish state also refuses that the orthodox can train theur local clergy in Turkey.

Many sceptics thus feel that Turkey does not respect the religious freedoms enshrined in European conventions, and that it massively privileges one religion over all others. Therefore, they feel Turkey does not meet these criteria for admission.

Effect upon the EU

Upon joining the EU, Turkey's almost 70 million inhabitants would bestow it the second largest number of MEPs in the European Parliament.^[8] Demographic projections indicate Turkey would surpass Germany in number of seats by 2020.^[8] In January 2005, the Turkish AKP approached the European People's Party and was admitted as an observer-member.

Turkey's membership would also affect future enlargement plans, especially the number of nations seeking EU membership,^[8] grounds by which Valéry Giscard d'Estaing has opposed Turkey's admission. d'Estaing has suggested that it would lead to demands for accession by Morocco.

Article 301

Opinions critical of the strongly nationalistic line are regularly prosecuted under Article 301 of the Turkish penal code. The EU was especially critical of Article 301 during the September 2005 trial of novelist Orhan Pamuk, with enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn calling the case "regrettable".^[28] After the case was dropped three months later, Turkey's Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul indicated^[29] that Turkey may abandon or modify Article 301, saying that "there may be need for a new law".^[29] In Sepember 2006, the European Parliament called for the abolition of laws, such as Article 301, "which threaten European free speech norms".^[30]

Other

Turkey is one of two states (with Azerbaijan) among the 46 members of the Council of Europe which has refused to recognise the status of conscientious objectors or give them an alternative to military service.^[31]
Important groups in the European Parliament have urged Turkey to recognize the Armenian deaths in the Ottoman Empire during World War I as genocide, see Armenian Genocide. Turkey denies responsibility, stating that the events were part of a civil war during the final years of the Ottoman Empire. Turkey, pointing out that recognition of historical events has never been a precondition for other states, considers this an example of the creation of new obstacles by countries opposed to their joining. Nonetheless, the European Union Parliament, by a majority of 391 to 96, stated that Turkey should recognise the Armenian genocide before it could join the European Union. This requirement was later dropped on 27 September 2006 by the general assembly of the European Parliament by 429 votes in favour to 71 against, with 125 abstentions.^[30]
In its second report on women's role in social, economic and political life in Turkey, the European Parliament emphasized that respecting human rights, including women’s rights, is a condition sine qua non for Turkey's membership of the EU.^[32]
Many feel that the Turkish occupation of Northwest Kurdistan must cease and Kurdistan granted full independence. As long as Turkey keeps occupying parts of Kurdistan and suppressing its language and culture, for them, accession is non-negotiable.

Public reactions

In the EU

Public opinion in EU countries generally opposes Turkish membership, though with varying degrees of intensity. The Eurobarometer March-May 2006 survey shows that 48% of EU-25 citizens are against Turkey joining the EU, while about 39% are in favour. Citizens from the new member states are more in favour of Turkey joining (44% in favour) than the old EU-15 (38% in favour). At the time of the survey, the country whose population most strongly opposed Turkish membership was Austria (con: 81%), while Sweden is current member state most in favour of the accession (pro: 61%) On a wider political scope, the highest support comes from the Turkish Cypriot Community (pro: 67%) (which is not recognised as sovereign state and is de facto not European territory and out of the European institutions), followed by Romania (pro: 66%). These communities are even more in favour of the accession than in the Turkish populace itself (pro: 54%).^[33]

In Turkey

The opening of membership talks with the EU in December 2004 was celebrated by Turkey with much fanfare,^[17] but the Turkish populace has become increasingly eurosceptic as negotiations are delayed. Based on what it views as lukewarm support for its accession to the EU and alleged double standards in its negotiations (France and Austria have indicated they will hold referendums on Turkey's membership), the Turkish public has become increasingly eurosceptic in recent times. A mid-2006 Eurobarometer survey revealed that 43% of Turkish citizens view the EU positively; just 35% trust the EU, 45% support enlargement and just 29% support an EU constitution.^[34]

Official point of view

EU member states must unanimously agree to Turkish membership for Turkish accession to be successful. A number of nations could oppose it, notably Austria, which historically served as a bulwark for Christian Europe against the Ottoman Empire, and France, which is fearful of the prospect of another wave of Muslim immigrants (especially given the poor integration of its existing, mainly Arab (i.e. not Turkish), Muslim minority).

Former French President Jacques Chirac, a supporter of the accession of Turkey into the EU, had to agree that the amendment to the French constitution authorizing the ratification of the proposed European Constitution^[35] contains a clause saying that a referendum is required before France can give its approval to Turkey or other future candidates to the European Union (the amendment excludes states that have already signed agreements).^[36] Some politicians opposed to the constitutional treaty, such as Philippe de Villiers, argued that the treaty paved the way to Turkish membership, which they deem highly undesirable.
Former Austrian Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel has said that he may hold a referendum on the issue. Recently, Austrian President Heinz Fischer has strongly suggested a pan-European referendum on the issue, given its great importance for the future of the EU. Recent Greek governments supported Turkish membership hoping that Turkey would soften up its stance in a number of issues of conflict between Turkey and Greece during the process of and after joining the EU. However, opinion polls from the end of December 2004 show that opposition is twice as strong among the Greek public as support.^{[citation needed]}
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said that Turkey is not ready to join the EU "tomorrow nor the day after tomorrow", but its membership negotiations should continue. He also called on France and other member states to honour the decision to continue accession talks, describing it as a matter of credibility for the Union.^[37]

Developments within Turkey could also freeze accession talks— the rise to power of a hard-line Islamic or nationalist government, or the current government failing to prove its willingness to respect the acquis communautaire. Interference of the skeptical military in civilian rule is detrimental to accession as well. Yet this point is seen favourably by some, as the Turkish army is known to intervene only when political leadership risks plunging the nation into a religious Sharia state. In effect preventing a demoderisation of the state.

The EU Progress Report from November 9, 2005 stated that

"On 29 July 2005, Turkey signed the Additional Protocol adapting the EC Turkey Association Agreement to the accession of 10 new countries on 1 May 2004. At the same time, Turkey issued a declaration stating that signature of the Additional Protocol did not amount to recognition of the Republic of Cyprus. On 21 September, the EU adopted a counterdeclaration indicating that Turkey’s declaration was unilateral, did not form part of the Protocol and had no legal effect on Turkey’s obligations under the Protocol. The EU declaration stressed that recognition of all Member States was a necessary component of the accession process. It also underlined the need for supporting the efforts of the Secretary General of the UN to bring about a comprehensive settlement of the Cyprus problem which would contribute to peace, stability and harmonious relations in the region."^[38]

On 2006-11-29, the BBC reported that the European Commission members had decided to suspend parts of the talks with Turkey regarding accession, following the failure to reach agreement over the various issue surrounding the occupation of Cyprus.^[39]