Opinion polling for the 2019 Indian general election
In the run up to the Indian general election, 2019, various organisations carried out opinion polls to gauge voting intention in India. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the Jan 2018 to April 2019. Many organisations have gone on to conduct exit polls and post-poll surveys as well, which too are displayed.
Background
Opinion polls in India can be controversial. These charges include partisan manipulation.[1]
Opinion poll methodology has heavily improved and agencies like CSDS have got it absolutely correct on 16 occasions, roughly correct on 7 occasions and wrong on 4 occasions.[2]
Post-poll surveys, widely published, are fundamentally different from opinion polls.[3] According to a study, post-poll surveys in the past have consistently overestimated BJP seats.[4]
Opinion polls
Polling on Politicians
Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi
| Date | Polling agency | Narendra Modi | Rahul Gandhi | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 60% | 34% | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 26% |
| Jan 2018 | 66% | 28% | Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"|34% | |
| 2017 | 69% | 26% | Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"|43% |
Best Alternative to Narendra Modi amongst the Opposition leaders in 2019 Election
Statewise opinion polling
Andhra Pradesh (25)
| Date | Polling agency | YSR Congress | TDP | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:YSR Congress Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:Telugu Desam Party/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 21 | 4 | bgcolor="Template:YSR Congress Party/meta/color" | 17 |
| June 2018 | Spick Media | 10 | 15 | bgcolor="Template:Telugu Desam Party/meta/color" | 5 |
Bihar (40)
| Date | Polling agency | NDA | UPA | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 22 | 18 | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 4 |
| 31 | 9 | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 22 | ||
| July 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 9 | 31 | bgcolor="Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" | 22 |
Chhattisgarh (11)
| Date | Polling agency | NDA | UPA | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | Times Now | 8 | 3 | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 5 |
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 9 | 2 | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 7 |
| July 2018 | Spick Media | 5 | 6 | bgcolor="Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" | 1 |
Haryana (10)
| Date | Polling agency | NDA | UPA | INLD | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:Indian National Lok Dal/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 6 | 3 | 1 | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 3 |
Kerala (20)
| Date | Polling agency | NDA | UDF | LDF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:Left Democratic Front (Kerala)/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 0 | 16 | 4 | bgcolor="Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" | 12 |
Madhya Pradesh (40)
| Date | Polling agency | NDA | UPA | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | Times Now | 21 | 8 | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 13 |
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 23 | 6 | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 17 |
| July 2018 | Spick Media | 16 | 13 | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 3 |
Maharashtra (48)
| Date | Polling agency | NDA | SHS | UPA | NCP | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:Shiv Sena/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:Nationalist Congress Party/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 16 | 2 | 30 | bgcolor="Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color" | 14 | |
| 36 | 12 | Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"|24 | ||||
| 22 | 7 | 11 | 8 | Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"|11 | ||
Odisha (21)
| Date | Polling agency | NDA | UPA | BJD | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:Biju Janata Dal/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 13 | 2 | 6 | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 7 |
Punjab (13)
| Date | Polling agency | NDA | UPA | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 2 | 12 | bgcolor="Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color" | 11 |
Rajasthan (25)
| Date | Polling agency | NDA | UPA | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | Times Now | 14 | 11 | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 3 |
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 18 | 7 | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 11 |
Uttar Pradesh (80)
| Date | Polling agency | NDA | UPA | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | ||||
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 24 | 56 | bgcolor="Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color" | 32 | |
| 36 | 2 | 42 | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"|6 | ||
| 70 | 2 | 8 | Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"|62 | ||
Union Territories
NCT of Delhi (7)
| Date | Polling agency | NDA | UPA | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style="background:Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color"| | Style="background:Template:United Progressive Alliance/meta/color"| | |||
| Oct 2018 | ABP News- CSDS | 7 | – | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | 7 |
References
- ^ "In India’s National Election, Don’t Trust the Polls, Jonah Force Hill, February 24, 2014". TheDiplomat.com. Feb 2014.
- ^ "Power and Limitations of Opinion Polls: My Experiences . March 2014.
- ^ "What exit polls are really about." May 12, 2014.
- ^ "Lok sabha elections 2014: Why exit polls often get it wrong." 13 May, 2014.
External links
Elected Prime Minister: Narendra Modi (BJP)
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