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2016 United States Senate election in Maryland

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United States Senate election in Maryland, 2016
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Chris Van Hollen Kathy Szeliga
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,659,905 972,557
Percentage 60.9% 35.7%
U.S. senator before election

Barbara Mikulski
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Chris Van Hollen
Democratic

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Maryland took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maryland, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski is not running for re-election to a sixth term in office.[1] Primary elections were held on April 26, 2016, in which Chris Van Hollen and Kathy Szeliga were chosen as the Democratic and Republican party nominees, respectively. In addition, the Green Party chose Margaret Flowers and the Libertarian Party chose Arvin Vohra as their respective nominees.

Van Hollen was heavily favored to win the election. He ultimately won with over 60% of the vote. As usual with the state's elections, most support for the Democratic nominee, Van Hollen, came from the densely populated Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area in central Maryland, while the Republican nominee, Szeliga, did well in the more sparsely populated areas in the eastern and western parts of the state.

Background

Mikulski first ran for the U.S. Senate in 1974, losing to Republican incumbent Charles Mathias. Mikulski then served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1977 to 1987 and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986, succeeding the retiring Mathias. She was re-elected by large margins in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2010. Shortly after being sworn in for her fifth term in 2011, she succeeded Margaret Chase Smith as the longest-serving female Senator in U.S. history[2] and on March 17, 2012, she became the longest-serving female member of Congress in U.S. history, surpassing Congresswoman Edith Nourse Rogers of Massachusetts, who served from 1925 to 1960.[3] On March 2, 2015, Mikulski announced that she would not run for re-election to a sixth term in office.[1]

In August 2013, Abby Livingston of Roll Call had predicted that a potential retirement by Mikulski would create "chaos" and "blow open Maryland's political bottleneck" because "the state's teeming political Democratic Party talent is backed up in lower offices."[4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Donna Edwards
Federal politicians


Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Organizations
Chris Van Hollen
Federal politicians
Governors
Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Federal politicians

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Donna
Edwards 		Chris
Van Hollen 		Other Undecided
Monmouth University[77] April 18–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 36% 52% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling[78] April 15–17, 2016 492 ± 4.4% 33% 42% — 25%
NBC4/Marist[79] April 5–9, 2016 775 ± 3.5% 38% 44% — 18%
Washington Post - University of Maryland[80] March 30 – April 3, 2016 539 ± 4.5% 44% 40% — 16%
Garin-Hart-Yang[81] March 28–30, 2016 604 ± 4.9% 40% 45% — 15%
Baltimore Sun – University of Baltimore[82] March 4–9, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 34% 28% — 31%
Gonzales Research[83] February 29 – March 4, 2016 411 ± 5.0% 41% 42% — 17%
Goucher College[84] February 13–18, 2016 307 ± 5.6% 39% 37% — 24%
Gonzales Research[85] January 11–16, 2016 402 ± 5% 36% 38% — 24%
Baltimore Sun – University of Baltimore[86] November 13–17, 2015 419 ± 4.8% 19% 28% 40%[87] 13%
31% 45% — 24%
Washington Post – University of Maryland[88] October 8–11, 2015 1,006 ± 3.5% 20% 20% 33%[87] 27%
Global Strategy Group**[89] August 3–9, 2015 600 ± 4% 42% 37% — 21%
The Mellman Group*[90] March 19–22, 2015 700 ± 3.7% 23% 22% 29%[87] 27%
  • * Internal poll for Elijah Cummings
  • ** Internal poll for Donna Edwards

Results

Democratic primary results[91] 1,989 of 1,989 precincts reported
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Chris Van Hollen 470,320 53.2
Democratic Donna Edwards 343,620 38.9
Democratic Freddie Dickson 14,856 1.7
Democratic Theresa Scaldaferri 13,178 1.5
Democratic Violet Staley 10,244 1.2
Democratic Lih Young 8,561 1.0
Democratic Charles Smith 7,912 0.9
Democratic Ralph Jaffe 7,161 0.8
Democratic Blaine Taylor 5,932 0.7
Democratic Ed Tinus 2,560 0.3
Total votes 884,344 100.00

Van Hollen won the April 26, 2016 primary in each of Maryland's counties except Prince George's and Charles, where Donna Edwards received more votes. Democratic voters in Baltimore City also preferred Edwards.[92]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Chrys Kefalas
Newspapers
Kathy Szeliga
U.S. Senators (current and former)
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Individuals
Statewide politicians
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Kathy
Szeliga 		Richard
Douglas 		Barry
Glassman 		Chrys
Kefalas 		Anthony
Seda 		Undecided
NBC4/Marist[79] April 5–9, 2016 368 ± 5.1% 20% 13% - 9% - 57%
Washington Post – University of Maryland[80] March 30–April 3, 2016 283 ± 7.5% 15% 9% - 11% - 46%
Baltimore Sun/University of Baltimore/OpinionWorks[129] March 4–8, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 6% 1% - 2% <1% 79%
Baltimore Sun – University of Baltimore[130] November 13–17, 2015 307 ± 5.6% 15% 9% 8% 5% 4% 59%

Results

Republican primary results[91]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kathy Szeliga 135,337 35.6
Republican Chris Chaffee 52,066 13.7
Republican Chrys Kefalas 36,340 9.6
Republican Richard Douglas 29,007 7.6
Republican Dave Wallace 23,226 6.1
Republican Sean Connor 21,727 5.7
Republican Lynn Richardson 20,792 5.5
Republican John Graziani 16,722 4.4
Republican Greg Holmes 16,148 4.3
Republican Mark McNicholas 9,988 2.6
Republican Joe Hooe 8,282 2.2
Republican Anthony Seda 3,873 1.0
Republican Richard Shawver 3,155 0.8
Republican Garry Yarrington 2,988 0.8
Total votes 379,651 100.00

Szeliga won the April 26, 2016 primary in Baltimore City and each of Maryland's counties except Calvert, St. Mary's, Charles, and Prince George's, in which Chris Chaffee received more votes.[92]

Third party and independent candidates

Green Party

Results

Green Party primary results[135]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Margaret Flowers 125 98
Green None of the above 3 2
Total votes 128 100.00

Independents

  • Greg Dorsey[6]
  • Steve Gladstone[6]
  • Edward Shlikas[6]
  • Kay Young[6]

Libertarian Party

General election

Candidates

Endorsements

Chris Van Hollen
Federal politicians
Statewide politicians
Other individuals
Newspapers
Organizations
Kathy Szeliga
Governors
U.S. Senators (current and former)
U.S. Representatives (current and former)
Individuals
Statewide politicians
Newspapers
Organizations

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[155] Safe D September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[156] Safe D September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[157] Safe D September 2, 2016
Daily Kos[158] Safe D September 16, 2016
Real Clear Politics[159] Safe D October 20, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Chris
Van Hollen (D) 		Kathy
Szeliga (R) 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,216 ± 4.6% 64% 33% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 1,056 ± 4.6% 64% 33% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 851 ± 4.6% 66% 32% — 2%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 772 ± 4.6% 67% 31% — 2%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 1, 2016 695 ± 4.6% 66% 31% — 3%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 740 ± 4.6% 66% 31% — 3%
University of Maryland/Washington Post September 27–30, 2016 706 ± 4.0% 58% 29% 5% 6%
Goucher College September 17–20, 2016 514 ± 4.3% 54% 24% 2% 19%
OpinionWorks August 18–30, 2016 754 ± 3.6% 55% 26% 1% 19%
Garin-Hart-Yang* May 23–25, 2016 400 ± 5.0% 54% 32% — 14%
Public Policy Polling April 15–17, 2016 879 ± 3.3% 53% 25% — 22%

References

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  2. ^ Marbella, Jean "Mikulski's milestone: the Senate's longest-serving woman" The Baltimore Sun January 5, 2011
  3. ^ CNN.com: Mikulski makes history while creating 'zone of civility' for Senate women
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  117. ^ a b "Join me for dinner and a chance to meet United States Senator Mike Lee. Looking forward to a great event! Details below". Facebook.
  118. ^ a b "Trent Lott backs Kathy Szeliga, sees pickup in Maryland". Baltimore Sun.
  119. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd ce cf cg ch ci cj ck cl cm cn co cp cq cr cs ct cu cv cw cx cy cz da db dc dd de df dg dh di dj dk dl dm dn do dp dq dr ds dt du "Endorsements". Kathy Szeliga for U.S. Senate.
  120. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "Senate hopeful Szeliga met with applause in Salisbury". DelmarvaNow.
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  122. ^ a b "Letter: Ready: Szeliga deserves support in Senate race". Carroll County Times.
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  124. ^ a b Vazquez, Maegan (April 18, 2016). "The 'American Conservative Union' Endorses a Candidate to Replace Hillary Ally in Deep Blue Maryland". Independent Journal. Retrieved April 19, 2016.
  125. ^ a b Nirappil, Fenit (April 15, 2016). "Citizens United airs Md. radio ads backing GOP Senate candidate Kathy Szeliga". Washington Post. Retrieved April 16, 2016.
  126. ^ "MD Right to Life 2016 primary endorsements". Quinton Report.
  127. ^ a b "VIEWPAC- Kathy Szeliga (MD SEN)". VIEWPAC.
  128. ^ a b "RightNOW Women PAC Endorses Rising Stars and Calls for Support of Women Leaders". RightNOW.
  129. ^ Fritze, John (March 12, 2016). "Edwards takes lead in U.S. Senate race, Sun/UB poll finds". The Baltimore Sun. The poll was done by OpinionWorks of Annapolis for The Baltimore Sun and the University of Baltimore's College of Public Affairs and Schaefer Center for Public Policy
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  131. ^ Fritze, John (October 14, 2015). "Margaret Flowers seeking Green Party nod for Senate". Baltimore Sun. Retrieved October 20, 2015.
  132. ^ "Single Payer Activist Margaret Flowers Running for Maryland Senate Seat". Single Payer Action. October 1, 2015. Retrieved October 20, 2015.
  133. ^ "Maryland Green U.S. Senate nominee Flowers issues statement on primary win". Green Party Watch. May 2, 2016. Retrieved May 2, 2016.
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Official campaign websites
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