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| next_election = 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
| next_election = 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
| next_year = 2024
| next_year = 2024
| turnout =
| turnout = 79.90%
| image_size = 200x200px
| image_size = 200x200px
| image1 = Joe Biden 2013.jpg
| image1 = Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Line 23: Line 23:
| running_mate1 = '''[[Kamala Harris]]'''
| running_mate1 = '''[[Kamala Harris]]'''
| electoral_vote1 = '''11'''
| electoral_vote1 = '''11'''
| votes_counted = 99
| votes_counted = 100
| last_update = Nov. 16, 2020, 1:47 PM
| last_update = Nov. 24, 2020, 12:58 PM
| time_zone = [[Mountain Time Zone|MST]]<ref>{{cite web |title=Arizona Election Results 2020|url=https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-arizona.html|work=The New York Times |accessdate=17 November 2020}}</ref>
| time_zone = [[Mountain Time Zone|MST]]<ref>{{cite web |title=Arizona Election Results|url=https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/18/0|work=Arizona Board of Elections|accessdate=30 November 2020}}</ref>
| popular_vote1 = '''1,672,143'''
| popular_vote1 = '''1,672,143'''
| percentage1 = '''49.39%'''
| percentage1 = '''49.36%'''
| image2 = Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
| image2 = Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
| nominee2 = [[Donald Trump]]
| nominee2 = [[Donald Trump]]
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| electoral_vote2 = 0
| electoral_vote2 = 0
| popular_vote2 = 1,661,686
| popular_vote2 = 1,661,686
| percentage2 = 49.08%
| percentage2 = 49.06%
<!--SEE TALK PAGE CONSENSUS NOTE BEFORE ADDING OR REMOVING CANDIDATES. Inclusion criteria have been discussed, and ballot access is not a factor.-->| map_image = Arizona Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
<!--SEE TALK PAGE CONSENSUS NOTE BEFORE ADDING OR REMOVING CANDIDATES. Inclusion criteria have been discussed, and ballot access is not a factor.-->| map_image = Arizona Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
| map_size = 300px
| map_size = 300px

Revision as of 01:41, 30 November 2020

Main articles: 2020 United States presidential election and United States presidential elections in Arizona
2020 United States presidential election in Arizona
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout79.90%
Votes counted
100%
as of Nov. 24, 2020, 12:58 PM MST[1]
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Projected electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,672,143 1,661,686
Percentage 49.36% 49.06%
Preliminary County Results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Arizona
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
State government
State elections
Gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
Attorney General elections
Treasurer elections
Superintendent elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Ballot measures
List of Arizona ballot propositions
Phoenix
Mayoral elections
Tucson
Mayoral elections
Other localities
Gilbert
  • 2012
Glendale
Maricopa County
Mesa
Scottsdale
  • 2008
  • 2012

The 2020 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election, in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[2] Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Trump had carried the state in 2016 by 3.5%, and it was considered a vital battleground in this election. Polls of the state throughout the campaign generally showed a Biden lead, albeit by a slender margin. Prior to election day, 11 of the 16 news organizations considered that Arizona was leaning towards Biden; the other five considered it a toss-up. Biden ultimately won the state by a narrow 0.31% margin over Trump, marking the first time since 1996, and only the second time since 1948, that a Democratic presidential nominee won Arizona. Arizona was the second closest state in 2020, the only closer state being Georgia.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden won 59% of Latino voters, including 65% of Latinos of Mexican heritage.[4] He won 58% of independents and was even able to notch 9% of Republicans,[4] allowing Biden to narrowly flip Maricopa County and become the first Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948 to do so. Additionally, Biden performed relatively well for a Democratic candidate among the state's Mormon voters.[5] Biden had touted his endorsement from Cindy McCain and leaned into his friendship with the late Senator John McCain in advertising.[6]

Primary elections

Canceled Republican primary

Further information: 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries § Cancellation of state caucuses or primaries

On September 9, 2019, the Arizona Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses.[7] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[8][9] At the Arizona State Republican Convention in May 2020, the state party formally bound all 57 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[10]

Democratic primary

Further information: 2020 Arizona Democratic primary

The Arizona Democratic primary took place on March 17, 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden defeated Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard.

This section is transcluded from 2020 Arizona Democratic primary. (edit | history)
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary[11]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[12]
Joe Biden 268,029 43.70 38
Bernie Sanders 200,456 32.70 29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[a] 35,537 5.79
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b] 24,868 4.05
Tulsi Gabbard 3,014 0.49
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,921 0.31
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 754 0.12
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 668 0.11
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 242 0.04
Henry Hewes 208 0.03
Other candidates 812 0.13
Other votes 4,942 0.81
Ineligible candidates[c]

0Michael Bloomberg
0Amy Klobuchar
0Tom Steyer
0John Delaney
0Cory Booker
0Michael Bennet

71,904

58,797
10,333
1,381
505
494
394

11.72

9.59
1.68
0.23
0.08
0.08
0.06

Total 613,355 100% 67

By county

County[11] Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren
(withdrawn†) 		Pete Buttigieg
(withdrawn†) 		Tulsi Gabbard Andrew Yang
(withdrawn) 		Julián Castro
(withdrawn) 		Marianne Williamson
(withdrawn) 		Rocky De La Fuente Deval Patrick
(withdrawn) 		Henry Hewes Michael A. Ellinger Others[d][e] Margin Total votes cast Eligible voters Voter turnout
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
Apache 3,092 44.0% 2,523 35.9% 252 3.6% 143 2.0% 48 0.7% 36 0.5% 20 0.3% 25 0.4% 26 0.4% 22 0.3% 13 0.2% 10 0.1% 818 11.6% 569 8.1% 7,028 28,734 24.5%
Cochise 4,123 41.7% 2,694 27.3% 678 6.9% 466 4.7% 93 0.9% 34 0.3% 22 0.2% 20 0.2% 26 0.3% 10 0.1% 8 0.1% 4 0.0% 1,710 17.3% 1,429 14.4% 9,888 20,356 48.6%
Coconino 6,578 37.4% 7,650 43.5% 1,255 7.1% 527 3.0% 94 0.5% 64 0.4% 16 0.1% 23 0.1% 17 0.1% 13 0.1% 9 0.1% 5 0.0% 1,354 7.7% –1,072 –6.1% 17,605 35,901 49.0%
Gila 2,041 47.8% 928 21.7% 192 4.5% 181 4.2% 37 0.9% 25 0.6% 10 0.2% 24 0.6% 8 0.2% 3 0.0% 11 0.3% 2 0.1% 807 18.9% 1,113 26.1% 4,269 8,845 48.3%
Graham 774 46.2% 420 25.0% 70 4.2% 44 2.6% 17 1.0% 14 0.8% 8 0.5% 5 0.3% 10 0.6% 0 0.0% 2 0.1% 0 0.0% 313 18.7% 354 21.1% 1,677 5,082 33.0%
Greenlee 316 45.0% 138 19.6% 25 3.6% 30 4.3% 14 2.0% 6 0.9% 4 0.6% 1 0.1% 4 0.6% 0 0.0% 3 0.4% 1 0.1% 161 22.9% 178 25.3% 703 1,756 40.0%
La Paz 323 44.8% 193 26.8% 29 4.0% 21 2.9% 6 0.8% 6 0.8% 5 0.7% 3 0.4% 2 0.3% 1 0.1% 1 0.1% 2 0.3% 129 17.9% 130 18.0% 721 2,282 31.6%
Maricopa 153,707 42.9% 120,379 33.6% 20,584 5.7% 15,346 4.3% 1,620 0.4% 1,109 0.3% 345 0.1% 307 0.1% 297 0.1% 121 0.0% 99 0.0% 92 0.0% 44,384 12.4% 33,328 9.3% 358,390 732,376 48.9%
Mohave 4,450 47.4% 2,142 22.8% 432 4.6% 493 5.3% 64 0.7% 38 0.4% 7 0.1% 18 0.2% 16 0.2% 7 0.1% 7 0.1% 5 0.4% 1,701 18.1% 2,308 24.6% 9,380 20,872 44.9%
Navajo 3,585 44.3% 2,617 32.8% 316 3.9% 193 2.4% 54 0.7% 59 0.7% 14 0.2% 25 0.3% 18 0.2% 11 0.1% 14 0.2% 10 0.1% 1,169 14.5% 968 12.0% 8,085 25,215 32.1%
Pima 60,622 45.3% 42,954 32.1% 8,602 6.4% 4,907 3.7% 613 0.5% 306 0.2% 149 0.1% 105 0.1% 88 0.1% 32 0.0% 20 0.0% 33 0.0% 15,378 11.5% 17,668 13.2% 133,809 237,568 56.3%
Pinal 12,450 48.4% 6,658 25.9% 1,165 4.5% 1,030 4.0% 148 0.6% 106 0.4% 39 0.2% 33 0.1% 45 0.2% 6 0.0% 12 0.1% 3 0.0% 4,032 15.7% 5,792 22.5% 25,727 60,034 42.9%
Santa Cruz 1,876 40.6% 1,547 33.5% 194 4.2% 131 2.8% 15 0.3% 18 0.4% 22 0.5% 12 0.3% 25 0.5% 2 0.0% 0 0.0% 6 0.1% 775 16.8% 329 7.1% 4,623 13,552 34.1%
Yavapai 10,317 47.9% 5,717 26.5% 1,355 6.3% 1,015 4.7% 129 0.6% 56 0.3% 5 0.0% 42 0.2% 5 0.0% 3 0.0% 5 0.0% 3 0.0% 2,891 13.4% 4,600 21.4% 21,543 31,856 67.6%
Yuma 3,775 38.1% 3,896 39.3% 388 3.9% 341 3.4% 62 0.6% 44 0.4% 88 0.9% 25 0.3% 41 0.4% 11 0.1% 4 0.0% 8 0.1% 1,224 12.4% –121 –1.2% 9,907 31,914 31.0%
Totals 268,029 43.7% 200,456 32.7% 35,537 5.8% 24,868 4.1% 3,014 0.5% 1,921 0.3% 754 0.1% 668 0.1% 628 0.1% 242 0.0% 208 0.0% 184 0.0% 76,846 12.5% 67,573 11.0% 613,355 1,256,343 48.8%

By congressional district

Congressional district[11] Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren
(withdrawn†) 		Pete Buttigieg
(withdrawn†) 		Tulsi Gabbard Andrew Yang
(withdrawn) 		Julián Castro
(withdrawn) 		Marianne Williamson
(withdrawn) 		Rocky De La Fuente Deval Patrick
(withdrawn) 		Henry Hewes Michael A. Ellinger Others[f][e] Margin Total votes cast Eligible voters Voter turnout
# % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # % # %
1st 32,749 45.8% 22,336 31.2% 3,776 5.3% 2,472 3.5% 432 0.6% 302 0.4% 107 0.2% 119 0.2% 117 0.2% 53 0.1% 55 0.1% 33 0.1% 8,954 12.5% 10,413 14.6% 71,505 167,908 42.6%
2nd 43,970 45.9% 28,927 30.2% 6,741 7.0% 3,814 4.0% 479 0.5% 240 0.3% 82 0.1% 88 0.1% 72 0.1% 30 0.0% 19 0.0% 18 0.0% 11,238 11.7% 15,043 15.7% 95,718 160,428 59.7%
3rd 23,744 38.7% 24,766 40.4% 2,724 4.4% 1,595 2.6% 292 0.5% 180 0.3% 222 0.4% 72 0.1% 115 0.2% 34 0.1% 17 0.0% 31 0.1% 7,505 12.2% −1,022 −1.7% 61,297 158,635 38.6%
4th 22,338 47.4% 11,925 25.3% 2,550 5.4% 2,298 4.9% 293 0.6% 164 0.4% 42 0.1% 100 0.2% 61 0.1% 20 0.0% 31 0.1% 15 0.0% 7,291 15.5% 10,413 22.1% 47,128 90,296 52.2%
5th 27,851 44.3% 19,636 31.3% 3,721 5.9% 3,020 4.8% 302 0.5% 210 0.3% 36 0.1% 58 0.1% 35 0.1% 8 0.0% 13 0.0% 13 0.0% 7,920 12.6% 8,215 13.1% 62,823 121,006 51.9%
6th 34,295 47.4% 19,878 27.5% 4,240 5.9% 3,570 4.9% 347 0.5% 156 0.2% 33 0.1% 57 0.1% 34 0.1% 20 0.0% 15 0.0% 10 0.0% 9,676 13.4% 14,417 19.9% 72,331 129,893 55.7%
7th 19,789 35.6% 24,701 44.4% 2,676 4.8% 1,572 2.8% 182 0.3% 191 0.3% 124 0.2% 42 0.1% 77 0.1% 27 0.1% 11 0.0% 23 0.0% 6,202 11.2% −4,912 −8.8% 55,617 148,509 37.5%
8th 30,594 46.8% 17,537 26.8% 3,420 5.2% 3,098 4.7% 334 0.5% 206 0.3% 59 0.1% 74 0.1% 59 0.1% 22 0.0% 28 0.0% 21 0.0% 9,985 15.3% 13,057 20.0% 65,437 123,996 52.8%
9th 32,699 40.1% 30,750 37.7% 5,689 7.0% 3,429 4.2% 353 0.4% 272 0.3% 49 0.1% 58 0.1% 58 0.1% 28 0.0% 19 0.0% 20 0.0% 8,075 9.9% 1,949 2.4% 81,499 155,672 52.4%
Totals 268,029 43.7% 200,456 32.7% 35,537 5.8% 24,868 4.1% 3,014 0.5% 1,921 0.3% 754 0.1% 668 0.1% 628 0.1% 242 0.0% 208 0.0% 184 0.0% 76,846 12.5% 67,573 11.0% 613,355 1,256,343 48.8%

General election

Campaign

Arizona was a heavily contested state throughout the election. Once a reliably Republican state, it has trended more Democratic in recent years, with Trump winning it by just 3.5% in the 2016 United States presidential election in Arizona, a major decrease from Mitt Romney's 9.03% margin in the 2012 United States presidential election in Arizona. Both candidates spent massive amounts of money on ads, however Biden outspent Trump 2-1. [17]

Trump visited Arizona significantly more then his opponent, holding 4 rallies in just one week, compared to Biden, who only visited the state once. [18] [19] Biden favored small, masked gathering to limit the spread of COVID-19, whereas Trump favored large rallies with thousands of people in attendance, oftentimes without masks. [20]

At his rallies, Trump campaigned with the Republican Governor of Arizona, Doug Ducey, as well as Republican Senator Martha McSally, in a bid to help her win reelection against Democrat Mark Kelly in the 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona. Ducey suffered from low approval ratings due to his handling of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and was booed at a Trump rally in Tucson, with Trump supporters shouting "open up and open our state".[21]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Princeton Electoral Consortium[22] Likely D (flip) October 5, 2020
PredictIt[23] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
The Cook Political Report[24] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
Inside Elections[25] Tilt D (flip) October 5, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Lean D (flip) October 8, 2020
Politico[27] Tossup October 5, 2020
RCP[28] Tossup October 5, 2020
Niskanen[29] Likely D (flip) October 5, 2020
CNN[30] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
The Economist[31] Lean D (flip) October 8, 2020
CBS News[32] Tossup October 5, 2020
270towin[33] Lean D (flip) October 6, 2020
ABC News[34] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
NPR[35] Tossup October 30, 2020
NBC News[36] Tossup October 5, 2020
538[37] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[g] 		Margin
270 to Win October 22 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.0% 45.8% 6.2% Biden +2.2
Real Clear Politics October 25 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.9% 47.0% 5.1% Biden +0.9
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.7% 46.1% 5.2% Biden +2.6
Average 48.2% 46.3% 5.5% Biden +1.9

2020 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 2 610 (LV) ± 4.5% 47%[i] 50% 1% 0% 2%[j] –
47%[k] 49% - - 2%[l] 1%
48%[m] 50% - - 2%[n] –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2 4,278 (LV) ± 2.5% 46%[o] 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 409 (LV) ± 4.85% 47% 50% 2% - – 1%
Marist College/NBC Oct 29 – Nov 1 717 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 48% - - 3% 1%
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1 360 (LV) ± 7.1% 46% 51% 4% - – –
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1 1,195 (LV) ± 2.8% 47% 50% 2% 1% 0%[p] –
AtlasIntel Oct 30–31 641 (LV) ± 4% 50.4% 48.1% - - 1.5%[q] –
Emerson College Oct 29–31 732 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 48% - - 6%[r] –
Morning Consult Oct 22–31 1,059 (LV) ± 3% 46% 48% - - – –
Data Orbital Oct 28–30 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 45.3% 45.9% 3% - 6%[s] 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 26–30 1,253 (LV) ± 3% 43% 49% 3% - 1%[t] 5%[u]
Grand Canyon Battleground Poll Oct 25–30 910 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 45% 3% - 4%
CNN/SSRS Oct 23–30 892 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 50% 3% - 1%[v] 1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 27–29 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% - - 3%[w] –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 26–29 889 (LV) – 46% 50% 2% 0% 1% 2%
Gravis Marketing Oct 26–28 704 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 48% - - – 8%
Trafalgar Group Oct 25–28 1,002 (LV) ± 3% 49% 46.5% 2.1% - 1.7%[x] 0.7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28 5,687 (LV) – 46% 52% - - – –
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 21–27 714 (LV) ± 4.2% 47%[i] 47% 2% 0% 3%[y] –
46%[z] 48% - - 3%[aa] 2%
Swayable Oct 23–26 304 (LV) ± 7.2% 44% 52% 3% - – –
Justice Collaborative Project[A] Oct 22–25 874 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 49% - - – 5%
OH Predictive Insights Oct 22–25 716 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 49% 3% - 1%[ab] 1%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 		Oct 17–25 725 (RV) ± 3.64% 45% 50% - - 2%[ac] 3%
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) Oct 21–24 729 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 52% - - 2% 1%
Y2 Analytics/Salt Lake Tribune Oct 15–24 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 50% - - – –
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[B] Oct 19–22 504 (LV) ± 4.4% 46%[ad] 46% 4% - 2%[ae] 1%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 14–21 658 (LV) ± 4.4% 46%[i] 50% 1% - 2%[af] –
46%[ag] 49% - - 3%[ah] 2%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20 1,066 (LV) ± 3% 48% 47% - - – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 18–19 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 48% - - 3%[ai] 3%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19 232 (LV)[aj] – 45% 51% - - – –
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 14–19 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46%[i] 47% - - 3%[ak] 5%
44%[al] 49% - - 3%[am] 5%
47%[an] 45% - - 3%[ao] 5%
Data Orbital Oct 16–18 550 (LV) ± 4.18% 42% 47% 3% - 5%[ap] 2%
YouGov/CBS Oct 13–16 1,074 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 49% - - 3%[aq] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 7–14 667 (LV) ± 4.3% 47%[i] 49% 1% 0% 2%[ar] –
46%[as] 50% - - 2%[at] 3%
Monmouth University Oct 11–13 502 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 50% 2% - 1%[au] 4%
502 (LV) 44%[av] 51% - - 2% –
47%[aw] 49% - - 1% –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–13 750 (LV) – 45%[aj] 48% 1% 0% – –
Morning Consult Oct 2–11 1,144 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 49% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10 720 (LV) – 46%[aj] 48% 1% 0% – –
Trafalgar Group Oct 6–8 1,087 (LV) ± 2.89% 48% 44% 2% - 2%[ax] 5%
OH Predictive Insights Oct 4–8 608 (LV) ± 3.97% 45%[i] 49% 4% - 0%[ay] 3%
47%[az] 50% - - 0%[ba] 3%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Oct 4–7 727 (LV) ± 3.63% 43% 49% 1% 1% 1%[bb] 6%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 7 633 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 48% - - 2%[bc] 4%
Latino Decisions/Democrats for Education Reform[C] Sep 28 – Oct 6 600 (LV) ± 4% 45% 48% - - – 5%
Basswood Research/American Action Forum[D] Oct 3–5 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 2% - – 3%
Data Orbital Oct 3–5 550 (LV) ± 4.18% 43% 48% 3% - 3%[bd] 4%
HighGround Inc.[1] Sep 28 – Oct 5 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 46% - - 4%[be] 5%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4 296 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 1–3 655 (LV) ± 4.2% 41% 49% 3% – 1%[bf] 6%[bg]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) Oct 1–3 604 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 50% - - 3% 1%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Sep 23 – Oct 2 1,045 (LV) ± 3.03% 46% 45% - - 10% –
Suffolk University Sep 26–30 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 50% 1% - 1%[bh] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30 7,100 (LV) – 47% 51% - - – 2%
Strategies 360/Smart and Safe Arizona[E] Sep 24–29 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 49% - - 2%[bi] 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc/Center for American Greatness[B] Sep 25–28 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 47% - - – –
Data for Progress (D) Sep 23–28 808 (LV) ± 3.4% 45%[i] 49% 1% 0% – 4%
46%[bj] 50% - - – 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–26 871 (LV) ± 3.32% 44% 47% 1% 1% 1%[bk] 6%
Data For Progress[F] Sep 15–22 481 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% - - – 10%
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20 262 (LV) – 43% 49% - - – –
ABC/Washington Post Sep 15–20 579 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 48% - - 2%[bl] 1%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[G] Sep 17–19 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 42% 53% - - – –
Data Orbital Sep 14–17 550 (LV) – 47% 49% - - – –
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–17 565 (LV) ± 4.7% 46% 47% - - 2%[bm] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–16 855 (LV) ± 3.35% 42% 47% 1% 0% 1%[bn] 8%
Monmouth University Sep 11–15 420 (RV) ± 4.8% 44% 48% 4% - 1%[bo] 3%
420 (LV) 46%[bp] 48% - - 3% 3%
47%[bq] 47% - - 3% 3%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 10–15 653 (LV) ± 4.1% 40% 49% 4% - 1%[br] 6%[bs]
Patinkin Research Strategies/Arizona Research Consortium (D) Sep 10–13 679 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 49% - - 4% 2%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report Aug 29 – Sep 13 1,298 (RV) ± 3% 40% 45% - - 4%[bt] 11%
Gravis Marketing Sep 10–11 684 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 50% - - – 2%
YouGov/CBS Sep 9–11 1,106 (LV) ± 3.9% 44% 47% - - 3%[bu] 6%
OH Predictive Insights Sep 8–10 600 (LV) ± 4% 42% 52% - - – 5%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 28 – Sep 8 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 48% - - 1%[bv] 4%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7 901 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 46%[bw] 49% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6 470 (LV) – 45% 49% - - 6%[bx] –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 4 830 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 48% 0% 1% 0%[by] 6%
FOX News Aug 29 – Sep 1 772 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% 3% - 1%[bz] 6%
858 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 49% 3% - 3%[ca] 6%
Basswood Research/American Action Forum[D] Aug 29–31, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48%[i] 47% 1%[cb] 2% – 2%
49%[cc] 48% - - – 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31 6,456 (LV) – 52% 47% - - – 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30 943 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% Template:Party shading/Democrat|52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23 344 (LV) – 47% Template:Party shading/Democrat|49% - - – –
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16–18 856 (LV) ± 3.4% 38% Template:Party shading/Democrat|47% 1% 1% 3%[cd] 10%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16 947 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 47% 45% - - – –
Emerson College Aug 8–10 661 (LV) ± 3.8% 47%[ce] Template:Party shading/Democrat|53% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9 428 (LV) – 44% Template:Party shading/Democrat|45% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Aug 5–8 1,013 (LV) ± 2.9% 46% 45% 3% - 1%[cf] 4%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 3–4 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 49% - - – –
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[H] Aug 2–4 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 48% - - – 2%
Data for Progress Jul 24 – Aug 2 1,215 (LV) – 43%[i] Template:Party shading/Democrat|45% 2% 1% – 10%
44%[cg] Template:Party shading/Democrat|47% - - – 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31 4,995 (LV) – 51% 47% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC[2] Jul 24–26 365 (LV) – 45% 47% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 17–26 908 (LV) ± 3.3% 42%[ch] 49% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 16–25 – (LV)[ci] – 43% 49% - - – –
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24 873 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 49% - - 4%[cj] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–23 858 (LV) – 38% 46% 2% 1% 3%[ck] 11%
NBC News/Marist College Jul 14–22 826 (RV) ± 4.1% 45% 50% - - 1% 3%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[I] Jul 17–18 960 (RV) – 45% 49% - - – 6%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[J] Jul 11–16 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 49% - - – 6%
Morning Consult Jul 6–15 – (LV)[cl] – 45% 47% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12 345 (LV) – 45% 51% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Jul 7–10 1,087 (LV) ± 3.8% 46% 46% - - 4%[cm] 4%
OH Predictive Insights Jul 6–7 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% - - 0%[cn] 7%
Morning Consult Jun 26 – Jul 5 – (LV)[co] – 42% 48% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30 2,365 (LV) – 52% 46% - - – 2%
Data Orbital Jun 27–29 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% - - 3.3%[cp] 4.2%
Morning Consult Jun 16–25 – (LV)[cq] – 43% 47% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28 311 (LV)[aj] – 44% 51% - - – –
Gravis Marketing/OANN Jun 27 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 45% - - – 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–17 865 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 43% 2% 1% 2%[cr] 13%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Jun 8–16 650 (RV) ± 4.3% 41% 48% - - 4%[cs] 8%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Jun 13–15 1,368 (RV) ± 2.9% 45% 49% - - 5%[ct] 1%
Morning Consult Jun 6–15 – (LV)[cu] – 44% 47% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14 201 (LV)[aj] – 44% 45% - - 5%[cv] –
Morning Consult May 27 – Jun 5 – (LV)[cw] – 47% 45% - - – –
FOX News May 30 – Jun 2 1,002 (RV) ± 3% 42% 46% - - 6%[cx] 5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31 329 (LV)[aj] – 45% 44% - - 9% 2%
Morning Consult May 17–26 784 (LV) – 47%[cy] 45% - - – –
Morning Consult May 16–25 – (LV)[cz] – 46% 46% - - – –
HighGround Inc. May 18–22 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 47% - - 4%[da] 4%[db]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14 946 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 45% - - 3%[dc] 10%
OH Predictive Insights May 9–11 600 (LV) ± 4% 43% 50% - - 1%[dd] 6%
Morning Consult May 6–15 – (LV)[de] – 47% 45% - - – –
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave Apr 13–16 500 (LV) – 46% 47% - - 2% 5%
OH Predictive Insights Apr 7–8 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 52% - - – –
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% - - 1% 5%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 46% - - 2% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 50% - - – 8%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% - - – 8%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3 666 (V) – 46% 47% - - – 6%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 42% - - – 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Team McSally/Politico[K] Jan 22–24 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 45% - - – 6%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4 760 (V) – 46% 46% - - – 8%

2019 polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[df] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 46% 44% 0%[dg] 10%
Emerson College Oct 25–28 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 50% – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–23 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 49% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 42% 12% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% – 12%
Fabrizio Ward LLC Jul 29–31 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 45% – 4%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 49% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% – 7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% – 11%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 40% 0%[dh] 10%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 44% 44% – 12%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 44% – 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 45% 43% 0%[di] 12%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 38% – 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 37% – 16%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Other Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 38% 17% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 36% – 18%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% – 13%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 40% – 11%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 39% 15%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College Mar 10–15, 2020 2,523 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 45% 2% 6%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020 847 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 43% 4% 6%
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% – 10%
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 38% – 16%
Public Policy Polling Mar 2–3, 2020 666 (V) – 47% 46% – 7%
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 44% – 10%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 46% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 34% 1%[dj] 18%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 45% 37% 15% 1%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 34% – 22%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 37% – 16%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 37% – 13%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
Climate Nexus Feb 11–15, 2020 539 (RV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% – 14%
Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 760 (V) – 47% 45% – 9%
OH Predictive Insights Dec 3–4, 2019 628 (LV) ± 3.91% 47% 41% 1%[dk] 12%
Emerson College Oct 25–28, 2019 901 (RV) ± 3.2% 50% 50% – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–23, 2019 652 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47% – –
Bendixen & Amandi International Sep 9–12, 2019 520 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 42% 10% 3%
OH Predictive Insights Aug 13–14, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 43% – 13%
OH Predictive Insights May 1–2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 42% – 11%
OH Predictive Insights Feb 12–13, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 38% – 12%
Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[h] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Univision Mar 6–11, 2020 1,036 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 51% 7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[L] Jan 24–25, 2019 682 (V) ± 3.8% 46% 50% 4%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Arizona[38]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
Write-in
Total votes

Counties that swung from Republican to Democratic

Controversies

Early call

In one of the more controversial stories of the election, Fox News called Arizona for Biden at 11:20 p.m. EST on November 3, election day, with 73% of projected vote counted.[39] The Associated Press did so at 2:50 a.m. EST on November 4, The network received push-back from the Trump campaign and no other network called Arizona on election night.[40][41][42][43][44] On November 11, Decision Desk HQ, along with several other outlets, projected that Biden would carry the state.[45] On November 12, ABC News, NBC News, CNN and The New York Times all projected Biden to carry the state shortly after 11 PM Eastern.[46][47][48]

Overvotes lawsuit

The Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee and the Arizona Republican Party filed a lawsuit that alleges that "overvotes" were "incorrectly rejected". A representative for Maricopa County stated that only "180 potential overvotes" are at stake in the case.[49] The Trump campaign requested that their evidence be kept secret from the public, but the judge refused to allow the secrecy.[50] The Trump campaign also stated that they had video footage from within a polling area; however, such footage would be illegal if taken within 75 feet of a polling area with voters present.[50] On November 10, 2020, Associate Presiding Civil Judge Daniel Kiley accepted a request from Snell & Wilmer, the law firm which was representing the Trump campaign and its allies, to withdraw from the Arizona lawsuit.[51][52] On November 11, 2020, Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich rejected Trump's voter fraud claim during an interview with Fox Business and stated that Biden would win the state of Arizona.[53][54] On November 13, the Trump campaign dropped their lawsuit, after it became evident that the number of votes potentially to be contested would not overcome Biden's margin of victory in the state.[55]

Analysis

Biden became the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton's victory in the 1996 United States presidential election, and only the second time since 1948. He is also the first Democrat to win Maricopa County, home to the state capital of Phoenix, since Harry Truman in 1948,[56] winning it by a margin of 2.2%, or 45,109 votes.[57] Maricopa County is by far the largest county in Arizona; it is home to over 60 percent of Arizona's population. Any chance Biden had of carrying the state depended on doing reasonably well in Maricopa; Clinton won Arizona mainly by holding his deficit in Maricopa to single digits. Ultimately, Biden's lead in Maricopa was over four times his statewide margin of 10,457 votes. Biden also became the first Democrat to break 47% of the vote since Lyndon B. Johnson did so in 1964.

Some Republicans, such as U.S. Representative from Florida Matt Gaetz, have come to attribute Trump's loss to the unpopularity of Governor Doug Ducey and Senator Martha McSally, who lost to Democrat Mark Kelly by a larger margin of 78,806 votes.[58] A large part of the reason as to why Biden won the state, however, can be attributed to how he leaned into his friendship with the late Senator John McCain in advertising. He also received an endorsement from McCain's widowed wife, Cindy McCain.[59] An increase in indigenous voting,[60] changing demographics and an increasing Hispanic population and turnout also contributed to Biden's very narrow victory.[61][62][63] On November 24, 2020, Governor Doug Ducey acknowledged that Biden won the state.[64]

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ The Justice Colaborative Project is an affiliate of the Tides Centre, a liberal fiscal sponsorship provider
  2. ^ a b The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  3. ^ This poll's sponsor exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  4. ^ a b The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
  5. ^ Smart and Safe Arizona endorsed Proposition 207 prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  7. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  8. ^ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  9. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  10. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by the McSally campaign
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by 314 Action
Voter samples and additional candidates
  1. ^ Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday during early voting.
  2. ^ Candidate withdrew before Super Tuesday during early voting.
  3. ^ While Bloomberg, Klobuchar, Steyer, Delaney, Booker and Bennet had formally withdrawn and were not published in the final state canvass, those ballots were included by the state as part of overall cast ballots and any media covering the primary reported individual vote tallies for those candidates.[13][14][15]
  4. ^ Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[16]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[11]
  5. ^ a b Calculated by subtracting the totals of all reported candidates from the total votes reported.
  6. ^ Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer[16]) do not have their vote totals officially reported.[11]
  7. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  9. ^ a b c d e f g h i Standard VI response
  10. ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  11. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  12. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  13. ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  14. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  15. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  16. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  17. ^ "Other" with 1.5%
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 6%
  19. ^ "Refused" with 5%; "Other" with 1%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  21. ^ Includes "Refused"
  22. ^ "None of these" with 1%; "Other" with no voters
  23. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 1.7%
  25. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  26. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  27. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  28. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  29. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  30. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  31. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Refused" with 0%
  32. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  33. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  34. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  35. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  36. ^ a b c d e f Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  37. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  38. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  39. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  40. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  41. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  42. ^ "Refused" with 4%; "Other" with 1%
  43. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  44. ^ "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 1%; West (B) with 0%
  45. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  46. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  47. ^ "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with no voters
  48. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  49. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  50. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  51. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  52. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  53. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  54. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  55. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  56. ^ "Refused" with 3%
  57. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%
  58. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  59. ^ Includes "Refused"
  60. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  61. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  62. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  63. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  64. ^ "Neither" with 2%; "other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  65. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  66. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  67. ^ "No one" with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%
  68. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  69. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  70. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  71. ^ Includes "Refused"
  72. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "Refused" with 0%
  73. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 3%
  74. ^ Would not vote with 1%
  75. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  76. ^ "Other/not sure" with 6%
  77. ^ West (B) and "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 0%
  78. ^ "Other" with 1%
  79. ^ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  80. ^ Listed as Jacob Hornberger (L)
  81. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  82. ^ West (B) with 2%; "Another third party/write-in" with 1%
  83. ^ Including voters who lean towards a given candidate
  84. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  85. ^ If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
  86. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  87. ^ Not yet released
  88. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 3%
  89. ^ West (B) with 2%; "Another Third Party/Write-In" with 1%
  90. ^ Not yet released
  91. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  92. ^ "Refused" with 0%
  93. ^ Not yet released
  94. ^ "Other" with 3.1%; "refused" with 0.2%
  95. ^ Not yet released
  96. ^ "other" with 2%
  97. ^ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  98. ^ "Someone else" with 5%
  99. ^ Not yet released
  100. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 5%
  101. ^ Not yet released
  102. ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 1%
  103. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  104. ^ Not yet released
  105. ^ "Some other candidate" with 4.3%
  106. ^ Includes "refused"
  107. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  108. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  109. ^ Not yet released
  110. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  111. ^ Refused with 0%
  112. ^ Refused with 0%
  113. ^ Refused with 0%
  114. ^ Refused with 1%
  115. ^ Refused with 1%

References

  1. ^ "Arizona Election Results". Arizona Board of Elections. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on January 3, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Archived from the original on January 9, 2019. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ a b "Arizona Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ Walch, Tad (November 5, 2020). "ChurchBeat: What we know about Latter-day Saint votes in Utah, Arizona". Deseret News. Retrieved November 30, 2020.
  6. ^ Martin, Jonathan (September 23, 2020). "Cindy McCain Endorses Biden, Citing Trump's Disparagement of Troops". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  7. ^ Stone, Kevin (September 9, 2019). "Arizona GOP won't hold 2020 presidential preference election". KTAR. Archived from the original on September 16, 2019. Retrieved September 11, 2019.
  8. ^ Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Archived from the original on January 1, 2020. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  9. ^ Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Archived from the original on June 5, 2020. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
  10. ^ "Arizona Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Archived from the original on February 9, 2020. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  11. ^ a b c d e "State of Arizona Official Canvass: 2020 Presidential Preference Election – Mar 17, 2020" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. March 30, 2020. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  12. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Arizona Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 Presidential Preference Election – President of the United States (DEM)". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved April 3, 2022.
  14. ^ "2020 primary Elections Arizona results". NBC News. May 1, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2022.
  15. ^ "Live primary and caucus results – March 17th contests". Reuters Graphic. April 23, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2022.
  16. ^ a b "Running for Federal Office, Arizona Secretary of State". azsos.gov. Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  17. ^ https://ktar.com/story/3670853/political-advertising-spending-in-2020-breaks-records-in-arizona/
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  39. ^ Fox’s Arizona call for Joe Biden flipped the mood at Trump campaign headquarters
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  41. ^ Fox News second-guessed calling Arizona for Biden. It was 100% election night's best moment
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  43. ^ With Arizona too Close to Call,
  44. ^ Who won Arizona? Why the call differs by media organization
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Further reading

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