Scottish independence referendum, 2014

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The Scottish Government intends to hold a referendum of the Scottish electorate on the issue of independence from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland on 18 October, 2014. The Referendum Bill is a proposed parliamentary bill to set out the arrangements for this referendum.

A white paper for the Bill, setting out four possible options ranging from no change to full Independence, was published on 30 November 2009. A draft bill for public consultation was published on 25 February 2010, setting out a two question yes/no referendum, proposing both further devolution, and full independence. The Scottish National Party (SNP) minority government failed to obtain support for a referendum from other parties, and eventually withdrew their plan for a referendum before the 2011 election. The SNP were re-elected in 2011 with an overall parliamentary majority, having pledged to hold an independence referendum if re-elected. On 10 January 2012, the Scottish Government announced that they intended to hold the referendum in the autumn of 2014.

History

Devolution referendums

Scotland's location within the United Kingdom.

A proposal for Scottish devolution was put to a referendum in 1979, but resulted in no change, despite a narrow majority of votes cast being in favour of change. A Labour backbench MP successfully inserted a clause that the number voting 'Yes' had to exceed 40% of the total electorate. No further constitutional reform was proposed under the Conservative Thatcher and Major governments between 1979 and 1997. Soon after Labour returned to power in 1997, a second Scottish devolution referendum was held. Clear majorities expressed support for both a devolved Scottish Parliament and that Parliament having the power to vary the basic rate of income tax.

2007 SNP administration

Further information: Government of the 3rd Scottish Parliament

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond and Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at the launch of the National Conversation, 14 August 2007

Debating chamber of the Scottish Parliament

A commitment to hold a referendum in 2010 was part of the Scottish National Party's election manifesto when it contested the 2007 Scottish Parliament election. As a result of that election, it became the largest party in the Scottish Parliament, the devolved legislative assembly first established in 1999 for dealing with unreserved matters within Scotland, and formed a minority government led by First Minister Alex Salmond. The SNP administration accordingly launched a 'National Conversation' as a consultation exercise in August 2007, part of which included a draft of a referendum bill, as the Referendum (Scotland) Bill. After forming the Scottish Government in 2007, the SNP had a long standing policy of not holding any referendum until 2010, so as to be well into its term.

The legislative plans for the Referendum Bill were announced in late August/early September 2009 by the Scottish Government. As a culmination to the National Conversation, a white paper for the proposed Referendum Bill was published on 30 November 2009. The paper detailed four possible scenarios, with the text of the Bill and Referendum to be revealed later. The scenarios were: No Change, Devolution per the Calman Review, Full Devolution, and Full Independence. The Full Devolution option, while short of Independence, would make the Scottish Parliament responsible for the 'vast majority' of tax and spending in Scotland, with a remittance paid to the UK to "cover common UK public goods and services such as defence and foreign affairs." The paper acknowledged that while the SNP government did not support anything other than full independence, the Referendum Bill would have provisions for a multi-option referendum, and called on opposition parties to propose a suitable form for these options.

The Scottish Government published a draft version of the bill on 25 February 2010 for public consultation. The 84 page document was titled Scotland's Future: Draft Referendum (Scotland) Bill Consultation Paper and contained a consultation document and a draft version of the bill. The consultation paper set out the proposed ballot papers, the mechanics of the proposed referendum, and how the proposed referendum was to be regulated. Public responses were invited from February 25 to April 30.

The bill outlined three proposals. The first proposal was one of full devolution or 'devolution max', suggesting that the Scottish Parliament should be responsible for "all laws, taxes and duties in Scotland.", with the exception of "defence and foreign affairs; financial regulation, monetary policy and the currency.", which would be retained by the UK government. The second proposal outlined Calman type fiscal reform, gaining the additional powers and responsibilities of setting a Scottish rate of income tax that could vary by up to 10p in the pound compared to the rest of the UK, setting the rate of stamp duty land tax and "other minor taxes", and introducing new taxes in Scotland with the agreement of the UK Parliament, and finally, "limited power to borrow money." The third proposal was for full independence, stating that the Scottish Parliament would gain the powers to be able to convert Scotland into a country which would "have the rights and responsibilities of a normal, sovereign state". This state would be a full Member State of the European Union, with the consequent social and economic relationship with the remainder of the UK which is already a member. Queen Elizabeth would remain as Scotland's head of state, while the United Kingdom would "become a monarchical and social Union – united kingdoms rather than a United Kingdom – maintaining a relationship forged in 1603 by the Union of the Crowns". The currency of Scotland would remain as the pound sterling (£) unless or until the Scottish electorate chose to adopt the Euro (€), which would be left to a separate referendum.

In the third Scottish Parliament, only 50 of 129 MSPs (47 SNP, 2 from the Scottish Green Party and Margo McDonald) supported a referendum, with all of the other major parties opposed. A non-binding vote on the issue of a referendum was tabled by the Liberal Democrats in March 2009 as an amendment to a Labour debate on the economy. The SNP position was defeated with a 25-vote majority (47-72). Due to the opposition from the other main parties and the SNP's status as a minority administration, it was not expected that the SNP would be able to get the Referendum Bill passed into law when ultimately presented to the Scottish Parliament for debate, meaning that the referendum would not be able to be held. The Scottish Government eventually opted to withdraw the bill after failing to secure support from the opposition parties.

2011 SNP administration

Further information: Government of the 4th Scottish Parliament

The Scottish National Party repeated its commitment to hold an independence referendum when it published its election manifesto for the 2011 Scottish Parliament election. In a television debate days before the election, First Minister Alex Salmond stated that the referendum would be held in the "second half of the parliament". Salmond stated that this was because he wanted to secure more powers for the Scottish Parliament via the Scotland Bill first. The SNP gained an overall majority in the election, winning 69 of the 129 seats available, thereby gaining a mandate to hold an independence referendum.

In January 2012, the UK Government offered to legislate to provide the Scottish Parliament with the specific powers to hold a referendum, providing it was "fair, legal and decisive". This would set terms of reference for the referendum, such as the question(s) asked, the electorate used and which body would organise the referendum. The Scottish Government then announced that they intended the referendum to be held in the autumn of 2014, and rejected the UK Government's offer.

Eligibility

Under the terms of the 2010 Draft Bill, the following people would be entitled to vote in the referendum:

• British citizens resident in Scotland;
• Commonwealth citizens resident in Scotland;
• citizens of other EU countries resident in Scotland;
• members of the House of Lords resident in Scotland;
• Service/Crown personnel serving in the UK or overseas in the armed forces or with Her Majesty's Government who are registered to vote in Scotland.

The SNP has proposed to reduce the voting age for the referendum from 18 to 16. In January 2012, Labour MSP Elaine Murray led a debate arguing that the franchise should be extended to Scots living outside Scotland. This was opposed by the Scottish Government, who argued that it would greatly increase the complexity of the referendum and cited evidence from the United Nations Human Rights Committee that a referendum not based on residence would be queried by other nations. In the House of Lords, Baroness Symons argued that the rest of the United Kingdom should be allowed to vote on Scottish independence, on the grounds that it would affect the whole country. This argument was rejected by the UK Government, with Lord Wallace pointing to the fact that only 2 of 11 referendums since 1973 had been across all of the United Kingdom.

Oversight

In the 2010 Draft Bill, the Scottish Government proposed to set up a new commission to oversee the referendum. Members of that commission would be "nominated by, and accountable to, the Scottish Parliament." The commission was to be "with limited exceptions, be completely independent of the Scottish Parliament and Government in the conduct of its affairs", and be modelled on the existing Electoral Commission. The rules on how to conduct the poll and campaigns for the referendum would be based on existing UK legislation, being broadly formed from the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000. A Chief Counting Officer for the poll would be appointed by Scottish ministers, and be selected from an existing or former Scottish election Returning Officer. In January 2012, the UK Government stated its preference for the Electoral Commission to oversee a Scottish independence referendum. BBC News reported soon afterwards that the Scottish Government would accept this if the Electoral Commission was mandated to report to the Scottish Parliament during the referendum.

Campaign funding and costs

Based on the 2010 Draft Bill, for each specific proposal outcome that can be campaigned for, there would be allowed to exist one 'designated organisation', permitted to spend up to £750,000 on their campaign, including expenses, but they would also be entitled to one free mailshot to every household or voter in the poll. Political parties represented in the Scottish Parliament would be limited to a campaign budget of £100,000 including expenses, in addition to any activity through affiliation with one of the designated organisations.

According to the Scottish Government's consultation paper published on 25 February 2010, the cost of holding the referendum would "likely to be around £9.5 million", mostly spent on running the poll and the count. Costs would also include the posting of one neutral information leaflet about the referendum to every Scottish household, and one free mailshot to every household or voter in the poll for the 'designated organisations' (See Campaign funding). There is to be no public funding for campaigns, which would also be subject to spending limits.

Lawfulness

There are different views as to whether the Scottish Parliament has the power to legislate for a referendum relating to the issue of Scottish Independence. Under the current system of devolution in Scotland, the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to unilaterally secede from the United Kingdom, because the constitution is a reserved matter for the UK Parliament. However, according to the Scottish Government, the proposed referendum is an "advisory referendum on extending the powers of the Scottish Parliament", whose result "will have no legal effect on [the United Kingdom]." In January 2012, the UK Government expressed the contrary opinion that the holding of any referendum concerning the constitution would be outside the legislative competence of the Scottish Parliament. Lord Wallace, the Advocate General for Scotland, said that private individuals could successfully challenge a referendum bill passed by the Scottish Parliament. The UK Parliament could temporarily transfer legal authority to the Scottish Parliament to prevent this, but the Scottish Government has objected to the attachment of conditions to any referendum by this process.

Potential consequences

According to the Scottish Government's consultation paper published on 25 February 2010, if there was a 'yes, yes' outcome of the poll, then following the "necessary negotiations" between the Scottish and UK governments, "it would then be for the Scottish and UK Parliaments to act on the expressed will of the Scottish people". If there was a yes vote for Proposal 1 (further devolution) but not Proposal 2 (powers for independence), then depending on the measures voted for, they would be implemented by an Act of Parliament, Orders in Council, or a combination of the two.

See also

• Constitution of the United Kingdom
• History of Scottish devolution
• History of the Scottish National Party
• Politics of the United Kingdom
• Referendums in the United Kingdom

External links

• Scottish Government
• Scottish Government Referendum 2014 site