Peak oil: Difference between revisions
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Please note that this article discusses a very technical (and to some people controversial) subject, and has been edited by |
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several science and petroleum professionals. Please discuss any substantial changes before making them. |
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-->{{Otheruses4}} |
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{{see|Oil depletion}} |
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{{PeakOil}} |
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[[Image:Hubbert peak oil plot.svg|thumb|250px|right|A bell-shaped production curve, as originally suggested by [[M. King Hubbert]] in 1956.]] |
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[[Image:PU200611 Fig1.png|thumb|250px|right|Peak oil depletion scenarios graph which depicts cumulative published depletion studies by [[Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas|ASPO]] and other depletion analysts.]] |
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<!-- P1 -Introductory paragraph on Peak oil. -->'''Peak oil''' is the point in time when the maximum rate of global [[petroleum]] [[Extraction of petroleum|extraction]] is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the [[Hubbert curve|observed production rates]] of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time appears to grow exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines, sometimes rapidly, until the field is depleted. |
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It has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. It is important to note that peak oil is not about running out of oil, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of oil. |
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<!-- P2 -Peak oil theory as related to M. King Hubbert's original paper -->[[M. King Hubbert]] created and first used this theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970.<ref name=mkinghubbert1956> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf |
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|title=Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels 'Drilling and Production Practice' |
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|author=Hubbert, M. King |
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|authorlink=M. King Hubbert |
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|publisher=[[American Petroleum Institute|API]] |
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|page=22-27 <!-- p. 31-36 in pdf scheme --> |
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|date=1956-06 |
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|accessdate=2008-04-18 |
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|format=PDF |
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}}</ref> His logistic model, now called [[Hubbert peak theory]], and its variants have been shown to be descriptive with reasonable accuracy of the peak and decline of production from [[oil well]]s, [[oil field|fields]], regions, and countries,<ref name=Brandt2007>{{citation |
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| author = Brandt, A. R. |
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| year = 2007 |
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| title = Testing Hubbert |
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| journal = Energy Policy |
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| volume = 35 |
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| issue = 5 |
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| pages = 3074–3088 |
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| format = PDF |
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| doi = 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.004 |
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| url = http://abrandt.berkeley.edu/hubbert/Brandt_Testing_Hubbert_pub.pdf |
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}}</ref> and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical [[Normal distribution|bell-shaped curve]] based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures. Various modified versions of his original logistic model are used, using more complex functions to allow for real world factors. While each version is applied to a specific domain, the central features of the [[Hubbert curve]] (that production stops rising, flattens and then declines) remain unchanged, albeit with different profiles. |
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<!-- P3 -economic effects -->Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts [[Kenneth S. Deffeyes]] and [[Matthew Simmons]], believe the high [[Green Revolution#Fossil fuel dependence|dependence]] of most modern industrial [[transport]], [[agriculture|agricultural]] and [[industry|industrial]] systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the [[price of oil]] to have negative implications for the [[The Global Economy|global economy]]. Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be. |
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<!-- P4 -political and ecomomic reactions to high prices -->If political and economic changes only occur in reaction to high prices and shortages rather than in reaction to the threat of a peak, then the degree of economic damage to importing countries will largely depend on how rapidly oil imports decline post-peak. According to the [[Export Land Model]], oil exports drop much more quickly than production drops due to domestic consumption increases in exporting countries. Supply shortfalls would cause extreme price inflation, unless demand is [[Mitigation of peak oil|mitigated]] with planned [[energy conservation|conservation]] measures and use of alternatives.<ref name="RGwyn2004"> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0128-10.htm |
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|title=Demand for Oil Outstripping Supply |
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|author=Gwyn, Richard |
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|authorlink=Richard Gwyn |
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|date=2004-01-28 |
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|publisher=[[Toronto Star]] |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref> |
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<!-- P5 -Optimistic timing of peak oil -->Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major [[investment]]s in [[Alternative fuel|alternatives]] will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations. These models show the [[price]] of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of [[fuel]] and energy sources are used.<ref name=energybulletin112006> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.energybulletin.net/22381.html |
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|title=CERA says peak oil theory is faulty |
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|publisher=[[Cambridge Energy Research Associates]] (CERA) |
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|author= <!-- staff ---> |
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|date=2006-11-14 |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref> |
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<!-- P6 -Pessimistic timing of peak oil -->Pessimistic predictions of future oil production operate on the thesis that either the peak has already occurred,<ref name=deffeyes012007> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html |
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|title=Current Events - Join us as we watch the crisis unfolding |
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|date=2007-01-19 |
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|publisher=[[Princeton University]]: Beyond Oil |
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|author=Deffeyes, Kenneth S |
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|authorlink=Kenneth S. Deffeyes |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref><ref name=ewg1007> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdf |
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|title=Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook |
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|publisher=[[Energy Watch Group]] |
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|date=2007-10 |
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|author=Zittel, Werner; Schindler, Jorg |
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|format=PDF |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref><ref name=cohen102007> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=243&Itemid=91 |
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|title=The Perfect Storm |
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|author=Cohen, Dave |
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|publisher=[[ASPO]]-USA |
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|date=2007-10-31 |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref> we are on the cusp of the peak, or that it will occur shortly<ref name=koppelaar092006> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://peakoil.nl/wp-content/uploads/2006/09/asponl_2005_report.pdf |
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|format=PDF |
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|title=World Production and Peaking Outlook |
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|publisher=[[Peakoil Nederland]] |
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|author=Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. |
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|date=2006-09 |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref> and, as [[mitigation of peak oil|proactive mitigation]] may no longer be an option, predict a global [[recession|depression]], perhaps even initiating a chain reaction of the various [[feedback#In economics and finance|feedback]] mechanisms in the global [[market]] which might stimulate a collapse of global industrial [[civilization]], potentially leading to large population declines within a short period. Throughout the first two quarters of 2008, there were signs that a [[Economic crisis of 2008|possible US recession]] was being made worse by [[Oil price increases since 2003|a series of record oil prices]].<ref> |
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{{cite news |
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|title=Oil Rally May Be Economy's Undoing |
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|url=http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080308/wall_main.html |
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|author=Bruno Joe Bel |
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|date=2008-03-08 |
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|publisher=[[Associated Press]] |
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|accessdate=2008-03-08 |
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}}</ref>{{Fact|date=August 2008}} |
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==Demand for oil== |
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{{further|[[Petro#Consumption_rates|Oil consumption rates]], [[Industrialization]], and [[Developing countries]]}} |
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[[Image:EIA petroleum consumption of selected nations 1960-2005.png|thumb|300px|Petroleum: top consuming nations, 1960-2006]] |
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[[Image:Oil consumption per day by region from 1980 to 2006.svg|thumb|The world increased its daily oil consumption from 63 million barrels in 1980 to 85 million barrels in 2006]] |
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The [[supply and demand|demand]] side of Peak oil is concerned with the consumption over time, and the growth of this demand. World crude oil demand grew an average of 1.76% per year from 1994 to 2006, with a high of 3.4% in 2003-2004. World demand for oil is projected to increase 37% over 2006 levels by 2030 ({{convert|118|Moilbbl/d}} from {{convert|86|Moilbbl}}), due in large part to increases in demand from the transportation sector.<ref name=bbc062006> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5099400.stm |
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|title=World oil demand 'to rise by 37%' |
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|publisher=[[BBC News]] |
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|date=2006-06-20 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-25 |
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}}</ref><ref name=eia2007ieo> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html |
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|title=2007 International Energy Outlook: Petroleum and other liquid fuels |
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|publisher=U.S. [[Energy Information Administration]] |
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|month=May |
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|year=2007 |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref> |
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[[World energy resources and consumption|Energy demand]] is distributed amongst four broad sectors: [[Energy conservation#Transportation|transportation]], [[Domestic Energy Consumption|residential]], commercial, and industrial.<ref name=eia2006aer> |
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{{cite web |
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|publisher=[[US Department of Energy]] |
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|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec1_3.pdf |
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|format=PDF |
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|title=Annual Energy Report |
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|date=2006-07 |
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|accessdate=2007-07-27 |
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}}</ref><ref name=eia2007goc> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/demand_text.htm#Global%20Oil%20Consumption |
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|title=Global Oil Consumption |
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|publisher=U.S. [[Energy Information Administration]] |
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|date= |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref> In terms of oil use, transportation is the largest sector and the one that has seen the largest growth in demand in recent decades. This growth has largely come from new demand for personal-use vehicles powered by [[internal combustion engine]]s.<ref name=wood082004> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/feature_articles/2004/worldoilsupply/oilsupply04.html |
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|title=Long-Term World Oil Supply Scenarios: The Future Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert |
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|date=2004-08-18 |
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|publisher=[[Energy Information Administration]] |
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|last=Wood |
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|first=John H. |
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|last2=Long |
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|first2=Gary R. |
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|last3=Morehouse |
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|first3=David F. |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref> This sector also has the highest consumption rates, accounting for approximately 68.9% of the oil used in the United States in 2006,<ref name=btstable4-3> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_04_03.html |
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|title=Domestic Demand for Refined Petroleum Products by Sector |
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|publisher=U.S. [[Bureau of Transportation Statistics]] |
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|date= |
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|accessdate=2007-12-20 |
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}}</ref> and 55% of oil use worldwide as documented in the [[Hirsch report]]. Transportation is therefore of particular interest to those seeking to [[Energy conservation#Transportation sector|mitigate]] the effects of Peak oil. |
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[[Image:US Oil Production and Imports 1920 to 2005.png|thumb|left|United States oil production peaked in 1970. By 2005 imports were twice the production.]] |
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Although demand growth is highest in the [[developing world]],<ref name=eiaoilconsumption> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption.html |
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|title=International Petroleum (Oil) Consumption Data |
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|publisher=U.S. Energy Information Administration |
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|date= |
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|accessdate=2007-12-20 |
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}}</ref> the United States is the world's largest consumer of petroleum. Between 1995 and 2005, US consumption grew from 17.7 million barrels a day to 20.7 million barrels a day, a 3 million barrel a day increase. China, by comparison, increased consumption from 3.4 million barrels a day to 7 million barrels a day, an increase of 3.6 million barrels a day, in the same time frame.<ref name=BP2008> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2008/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/statistical_review_of_world_energy_full_review_2008.pdf |
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|format=PDF |
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|title=BP Statistical Review of Energy - 2008 |
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|publisher=[[Beyond Petroleum]] |
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|year=2008 |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref> |
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As countries [[Economic development|develop]], industry, rapid [[urbanization]] and higher [[living standards]] drive up energy use, most often of oil. Thriving economies such as China and India are quickly becoming large oil consumers.<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7387203.stm Oil price 'may hit $200 a barrel'], BBC News</ref> China has seen oil consumption grow by 8% yearly since 2002, doubling from 1996-2006,<ref name=eiaoilconsumption /> In 2008, auto sales in China were expected to grow by as much as 15-20 percent, resulting in part from economic growth rates of over 10 percent for 5 years in a row.<ref name=Chinagasguz2008> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080421/china_auto_show_big_cars.html |
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|title=Gas guzzlers a hit in China, where car sales are booming |
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|publisher=[[Associated Press]] |
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|first=Joe |
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|last=Mcdonald |
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|date=2008-04-21 |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref> Although swift continued growth in China is often predicted, others predict that China's export dominated economy will not continue such growth trends due to wage and price inflation and reduced demand from the US.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://seekingalpha.com/article/83459-china-s-negative-economic-outlook |
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|title=China's Negative Economic Outlook |
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|publisher=[[Seeking Alpha]] |
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|first=Kevin |
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|last=O'Brien |
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|date=2008-07-02 |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref> India's oil imports are expected to more than triple from 2005 levels by 2020, rising to {{convert|5|Moilbbl/d}}.<ref name=businessweek082005> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/aug2005/nf20050825_4692_db016.htm?chan=gb |
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|title=China and India: A Rage for Oil |
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|publisher=[[Business Week]] |
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|date=2005-08-25 |
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|accessdate=2008-07-27 |
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}}</ref> |
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===Population=== |
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[[Image:World population history.svg|thumb|right|World population]] |
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Another significant factor on petroleum demand has been human [[population growth]]. Oil production per capita peaked in the 1970s.<ref name="RCDuncan2001"/> The [[World population|world’s population]] in 2030 is expected to be double that of 1980.<ref name=censusworldpop> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/worldpop.html |
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|title=Total Midyear Population for the World: 1950-2050 |
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|publisher=U.S. [[Census Bureau]] |
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|date=2008-06-18 |
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|accessdate=2007-12-20 |
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}}</ref> Author Matt Savinar predicts that oil production in 2030 will have declined back to 1980 levels as worldwide demand for oil significantly out-paces production.<ref name="Running"> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ |
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|title=Are We 'Running Out'? I Thought There Was 40 Years of the Stuff Left |
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|publisher=Life After the Oil Crash |
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|last=Savinar |
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|first=Matt |
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|date= |
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|accessdate=2007-12-20 |
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}}</ref><ref name=mieszkowski032006><!--establishes notability and theories of Matt Savinar--> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2006/03/22/peakoil/ |
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|title=The oil is going, the oil is going! |
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|publisher=[[Salon.com]] |
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|last=Mieszkowski |first=Katharine |
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|date=2006-03-22 |
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|accessdate=2008-03-08 |
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}}</ref> Physicist [[Albert Bartlett]] claims that the rate of oil production per capita is falling, and that the decline has gone undiscussed because a [[political correctness|politically incorrect]] form of [[population control]] may be implied by mitigation.<ref name=bartlett082004> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://fire.pppl.gov/energy_population_pt_0704.pdf |
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|format=PDF |
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|title=Thoughts on Long-Term Energy Supplies: Scientists and the Silent Lie |
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|first=Albert A. |
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|last=Bartlett |
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|publisher=[[Physics Today]] |
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|date=2004-08-27 |
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|accessdate=2008-03-08 |
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}}</ref> Oil production per capita has declined from {{convert|5.26|oilbbl/a}} |
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in 1980 to {{convert|4.44|oilbbl/a}} in 1993,<ref name=EIAproduction> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilproduction.html |
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|publisher=US [[Energy Information Administration]] |
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|title=International Petroleum (Oil) Production Data |
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|accessdate=2008-03-31}} |
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</ref><ref name=censusworldpop/> but then increased to {{convert|4.79|oilbbl/a}} in 2005.<ref name=EIAproduction/><ref name=censusworldpop/> In 2006, the world oil production took a downturn from {{convert|84.631|to|84.597|Moilbbl/d}} although population has continued to increase. This has caused the oil production per capita to drop again to {{convert|4.73|oilbbl/a}}.<ref name=EIAproduction/><ref name=censusworldpop/> |
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One factor that has so far helped ameliorate the effect of population growth on demand is the decline of population growth rate since the 1970s, although this is offset to a degree by increasing average longevity in developed nations. In 1970, the population grew at 2.1%. By 2007, the growth rate had declined to 1.167%.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html |
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|title=The World Factbook |
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|publisher=US [[Central Intelligence Agency]] |
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|date=2008-03-20 |
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|accessdate=2008-03-31 |
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}}</ref> However, oil production is still outpacing population growth to meet demand. World population grew by 6.2% from 6.07 billion in 2000 to 6.45 billion in 2005,<ref name=censusworldpop/> whereas according to BP, global oil production during that same period increased from {{convert|74.9|to|81.1|Moilbbl}}, or by 8.2%.<ref name=bp2006review> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/reports_and_publications/statistical_energy_review_2006/STAGING/local_assets/downloads/pdf/table_of_world_oil_production_2006.pdf |
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|title=Table of World Oil Production 2006 |
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|publisher=[[BP]] |
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|format=PDF |
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|accessdate=2007-12-20 |
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}}</ref> or according to EIA, from {{convert|77.762|to|84.631|Moilbbl}}, or by 8.8%.<ref name=EIAproduction/> |
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====Agriculture and population limits==== |
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{{further|[[Peak oil#Agricultural_effects|Agricultural effects of peak oil]], [[Food vs fuel]] and [[2007–2008 world food price crisis]]}} |
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Because supplies of oil and gas are essential to modern [[agriculture]] techniques, a fall in global oil supplies could cause spiking food prices and unprecedented [[famine]] in the coming decades.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.countercurrents.org/goodchild291007.htm |
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|title=Peak Oil And Famine:Four Billion Deaths |
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|publisher=[[Countercurrents]] |
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|first=Peter |
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|last=Goodchild |
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|date=2007-10-29 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-21 |
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}}</ref><ref group=note>A list of over 20 published articles and books from government and journal sources supporting this thesis have been compiled at [http://dieoff.org/ Dieoff.org] in the section ''"Food, Land, Water, and Population."''</ref> Geologist [[Dale Allen Pfeiffer]] contends that current population levels are unsustainable, and that to achieve a sustainable economy and avert [[disaster]] the United States population would have to be reduced by at least one-third, and [[world population]] by two-thirds.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.html |
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|title=Eating Fossil Fuels |
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|publisher=[[From the Wilderness]] |
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|first=Dale Allen |
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|last=Pfeiffer |
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|year=2004 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-21 |
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}}</ref> The largest consumer of fossil fuels in modern agriculture is [[Fertilizer#Nitrogen_fertilizer|fertilizer]] production via the [[Haber process]], which is essential to high perennial corn yields. If a sustainable non-petroleum source of electricity is developed, this process can be accomplished without fossil fuels using methods such as [[Electrolysis_of_water#Applications|electrolysis]]. |
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==Petroleum Supply== |
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===Discoveries=== |
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{{cquote2|All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas. | William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005 |<ref name=bostonglobe122005>{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.boston.com/news/world/articles/2005/12/11/price_rise_and_new_deep_water_technology_opened_up_offshore_drilling/ |
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|title=Price rise and new deep-water technology opened up offshore drilling |
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|date=2005-12-11 |
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|author= |
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|publisher=[[The Boston Globe]] |
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|accessdate=2008-08-21 |
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}}</ref>}} |
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In order to pump oil, it first needs to be discovered. The peak of world oilfield ''discoveries'' occurred in 1965<ref name=campbell1222000> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://energycrisis.org/de/lecture.html |
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|title=Peak Oil Presentation at the Technical University of Clausthal |
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|author=Campbell CJ |
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|date=2000-12 |
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|publisher=[[The Boston Globe]] |
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|accessdate=2008-08-21 |
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}}</ref> at around 55 billion barrels(Gb)/year.<ref name=longwell2002>{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.worldenergysource.com/articles/pdf/longwell_WE_v5n3.pdf |
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|format=PDF |
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|title=The Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: Past Approaches, New Challenges |
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|author=Harry J. Longwell, Executive VP Exxon-Mobil |
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|year=2002 |
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|publisher=[[World Energy]] |
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|volume=5 |
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|number=3 |
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|pages=pp. 100-104 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-21 |
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}}</ref> The rate of oil barrels of oil discovered has been falling steadily since. Less than 10 Gb/yr of oil were discovered every year between 2002-2007.<ref>{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.aspo-ireland.org/contentFiles/newsletterPDFs/Newsletter80_200708.pdf |
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|title=NEWSLETTER No. 80 |
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|author= |
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|date=2007-08 |
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|publisher=ASPO-Ireland |
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|accessdate=2008-08-21 |
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|format=PDF}}</ref> |
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===Reserves=== |
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{{main|Oil reserves|List of largest oil fields}} |
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[[Image:Hubbert world 2004.png|thumb|300px|right|2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in [[OPEC]] and the [[former Soviet Union]]]] |
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Conventional crude oil reserves include all crude oil that is technically possible to produce from reservoirs through a well bore, using primary, secondary, improved, enhanced, or tertiary methods. This does not include liquids extracted from mined solids or gasses ([[tar sand]]s, [[oil shale]]s, [[Gas to liquids|gas-to-liquid processes]], or [[Coal#Liquefaction_-_Coal-To-Liquids_.28CTL.29|coal-to-liquid processes]]).<ref name=iht072007> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/07/16/america/NA-FIN-US-Oil-Report.php |
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|title=Oil industry report says demand to outpace crude oil production |
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|publisher=[[International Herald Tribune]] |
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|date=2007-07-16 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-26 |
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}}</ref> |
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Oil reserves are classified as proven, probable and possible. Proven reserves are generally intended to have at least 90% or 95% certainty of containing the amount specified. Probable Reserves have an intended [[probability]] of 50%, and the Possible Reserves an intended probability of 5% or 10%.<ref name=dtitable4_3>{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/information/bb_updates/chapters/Table4_3.htm |
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|title=UK Oil Reserves and Estimated Ultimate Recovery 2007 |
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|publisher=Department of Business Enterprise and Business Reform |
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|date=2007-9 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-19 |
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}}</ref> Current technology is capable of extracting about 40% of the oil from most wells. Some speculate that future technology will make further extraction possible,<ref name=nyt08212005> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/magazine/21OIL.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all |
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|title=The Breaking Point |
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|author=Maass Peter |
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|publisher=[[New York Times]] |
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|date=August 21, 2005 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-26 |
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}}</ref> but to some, this future technology is already considered in Proven and Probable reserve numbers. |
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In many major producing countries, the majority of reserves claims have not been subject to outside audit or examination. Most of the easy-to-extract oil has been found.<ref name=bostonglobe122005/> [[Oil price increases since 2003|Recent price increases]] have led to [[oil exploration]] in areas where extraction is much more expensive, such as in extremely deep wells, extreme downhole temperatures, and environmentally sensitive areas or where high technology will be required to extract the oil. A lower rate of discoveries per explorations has led to a shortage of [[drilling rig]]s, increases in [[steel]] prices, and overall increases in costs due to complexity.<ref name=iht032007> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/03/07/business/ibrief.php |
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|title=Briefing: Exxon increases budget for oil exploration |
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|publisher=[[International Herald Tribune]] |
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|author= |
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|date=2007-03-07 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-26 |
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}}</ref><ref name=iht122005> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/12/14/news/shell.php |
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|title=Shell plans huge spending increase |
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|publisher=[[International Herald Tribune]] |
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|author= |
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|date=2005-12-14 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-26 |
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}}</ref> |
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====Peak reserves==== |
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Reserves in effect peaked in 1980, when production first surpassed new discoveries, though creative methods of recalculating reserves has made this difficult to establish exactly.<ref name=ewg1007/> <!-- this paragraph refers to total reserves (3P), not just proved (1P) which means technically and economically producable... that 1P reserves grow is not surprising --> |
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====Concerns over stated reserves==== |
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{{cquote2|World reserves are confused and in fact inflated. Many of the so-called reserves are in fact resources. They’re not delineated, they’re not accessible, they’re not available for production|[[Sadad I. Al Husseini]], former VP of [[Aramco]], October 2007.}} |
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By Al-Husseini's estimate, 300 billion ({{val|64|e=9|u=m<sup>3</sup>}}) of the world’s {{convert|1200|Goilbbl}} of proved reserves should be recategorized as speculative resources.<ref name=cohen102007/> |
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One difficulty in forecasting the date of peak oil is the opacity surrounding the oil reserves classified as 'proven'. Many worrying signs concerning the depletion of 'proven reserves' have emerged in recent years.<ref name=boxell102004> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.energybulletin.net/2470.html |
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|title=Top Oil Groups Fail to Recoup Exploration |
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|author=Boxell, James |
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|publisher=[[Energy Bulletin]] |
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|date=2004-10-10 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-26 |
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}}</ref><ref name=gerth022004> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/24/business/24OIL.html?ex=1392958800&en=dc727c73cd688914&ei=5007 |
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|title=Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields |
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|author=Gerth, Jeff |
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|publisher=[[New York Times]] |
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|date=2004-02-24 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-26 |
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}}</ref> This was best exemplified by the 2004 scandal surrounding the 'evaporation' of 20% of [[Shell oil company|Shell]]'s reserves.<ref name=shellblewrep> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-960901,00.html |
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|title=How Shell blew a hole in a 100-year reputation |
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|author=Morsfeld, Carl |
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|date=2004-10-10 |
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|publisher=[[The Times]] |
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|accessdate=2008-08-26 |
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}}</ref> |
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For the most part, 'proven reserves' are stated by the oil companies, the producer states and the consumer states. All three have reasons to overstate their proven reserves: |
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* Oil companies may look to increase their potential worth. |
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* Producer countries are bestowed a stronger [[international relations|international stature]] |
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* Governments of consumer countries may seek a means to foster sentiments of [[security]] and [[inflation|stability]] within their [[economy|economies]] and among consumers. |
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The Energy Watch Group (EWG) 2007 report shows total world Proved (P95) plus Probable (P50) reserves to be between 854 and 1,255 Gb (30 to 40 years of supply if demand growth were to stop immediately). Major discrepancies arise from accuracy issues with [[OPEC]]'s self-reported numbers. Besides the possibility that these nations have overstated their reserves for political reasons (during periods of no substantial discoveries), over 70 nations also follow a practice of not reducing their reserves to account for yearly production. 1,255 Gb is therefore a best-case scenario.<ref name=ewg1007/> Analysts have suggested that OPEC member nations have economic incentives to exaggerate their reserves, as the OPEC quota system allows greater output for countries with greater reserves.<ref name=nyt08212005> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/magazine/21OIL.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all |
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|title=The Breaking Point |
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|author=Maass, Peter |
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|date=2005-08-21 |
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|publisher=[[New York Times]] |
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|accessdate=2008-08-26 |
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}}</ref> |
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The following graph shows refutable jumps in stated reserves without associated discoveries, as well as the lack of depletion despite yearly production: |
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[[Image:OPEC-reserves-thumb.png|frame|Graph of OPEC reported reserves]] |
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Kuwait, for example, was reported by a January 2006 issue of ''Petroleum Intelligence Weekly'' to have only 48 Gb in reserve, of which only 24 were "fully proven." This report was based on "leaks of confidential documents" from Kuwait, and has not been formally denied by the Kuwaiti authorities. This leaked document dates back from 2001<ref name=KuwaitTimes20080618> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.kuwaittimes.net/read_news.php?newsid=MjM0ODI5MzU= |
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|title=What lies beneath? |
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|author=Darwish, Badrya |
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|publisher=[[Kuwait Times]] |
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|date=June 16, 2008 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-26 |
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}}</ref> so the figure includes oil that have been produced since 2001, roughly 5-6 billion barrels,<ref name=BP2008/> but excludes revisions or discoveries made since then. Additionally, the reported 1.5 Gb of [[Kuwaiti oil fires|oil burned off]] by Iraqi soldiers in the first Gulf War<ref name=TEDkuwait> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.american.edu/TED/kuwait.htm |
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|title=The Economic and Environmental Impact of the Gulf War on Kuwait and the Persian Gulf |
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|publisher=[[American University]] Trade and Environment Database |
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|author=Javed, Ali |
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|date=2000-12-01 |
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|accessdate=2007-11-18 |
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}}</ref> are conspicuously missing from Kuwait's figures. |
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On the other hand investigative journalist [[Greg Palast]] has argued that oil companies have an interest in making oil look more rare than it is in order to justify higher prices.<ref name=gnn052006> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.gnn.tv/articles/2295/No_Peaking_The_Hubbert_Humbug |
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|title=No Peaking: The Hubbert Humbug |
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|publisher=[[Guerrilla News Network]] |
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|author=Palast, Greg |
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|authorlink=Greg Palast |
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|date=2006-05-23 |
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|accessdate=2007-11-16 |
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}}</ref> Other analysts in 2003 argued that oil producing countries understated the extent of their reserves in order to drive up the price of oil.<ref name=nationalreview122003> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/learsy200312040900.asp |
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|title=OPEC Follies - Breaking point |
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|publisher=[[National Review]] |
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|date=2003-12-04 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-26 |
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}}</ref> |
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====Unconventional sources==== |
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{{Main|Non-conventional oil|Heavy crude oil|Tar sands|Oil shale}} |
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[[Image:Extraction separation cell.jpg|thumb|250px|Raw bitumen is separated from the sand in giant separation cells.]] |
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Unconventional sources, such as heavy crude oil, tar sands, and oil shale are not counted as part of oil reserves. However, oil companies can book them as proven reserves after opening a [[strip mine]] or thermal facility for [[resource extraction|extraction]]. Oil industry sources such as Rigzone have stated that these unconventional sources are not as efficient to produce, however, requiring extra energy to refine, resulting in higher production costs and up to three times more [[greenhouse gas]] emissions per barrel (or barrel equivalent).<ref> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=30703 |
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|title=Canadian Tar Sands: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly |
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|date=2006-03-28 |
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|author=Duarte Joe |
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|publisher=RigZone |
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}}</ref> While the energy used, resources needed, and environmental effects of extracting unconventional sources has traditionally been prohibitively high, the three major unconventional oil sources being considered for large scale production are the extra heavy oil in the [[Orinoco Belt]] of [[Venezuela]],<ref> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.battelle.org/Environment/publications/envupdates/Fall2003/article9.stm |
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|title=Environmental Challenges of Heavy Crude Oils |
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|publisher=[[Battelle Memorial Institute]] |
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|year=2003 |
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}}</ref> the [[Athabasca oil sands]] in the [[Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin]],<ref>{{cite web |
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|url=http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/102spring2002_Web_projects/M.Sexton/ |
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|title=Tar Sands: A brief overview |
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}}</ref> and the [[oil shale]]s of the [[Green River Formation]] in [[Colorado]], [[Utah]] and [[Wyoming]] in the United States.<ref name=dyni> |
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{{Citation |
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| last=Dyni |
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| first=John R |
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| title=Geology and resources of some world oil-shale deposits (Presented at Symposium on Oil Shale in Tallinn, Estonia, November 18-21, 2002) |
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| journal=Oil Shale. A Scientific-Technical Journal |
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| publisher=Estonian Academy Publishers |
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| volume=20 |
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| issue=3 |
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| pages=193–252 |
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| year=2003 |
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| url=http://www.kirj.ee/oilshale/2_dyni_2003_3.pdf |
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| format=PDF |
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| issn=0208-189X |
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| accessdate =2007-06-17 |
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}}</ref><ref name=fossilenergy> |
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{{Citation |
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| title=Strategic Significance of America’s Oil Shale Resource. Volume II Oil Shale Resources, Technology and Economics |
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| publisher=Office of Deputy Assistant Secretary for Petroleum Reserves; Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves; U.S. Department of Energy |
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| year=2004 |
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| url=http://www.fossil.energy.gov/programs/reserves/npr/publications/npr_strategic_significancev2.pdf |
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| format=PDF |
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| accessdate=2007-06-23 |
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}}</ref> Chuck Masters of the [[USGS]] estimates that, "Taken together, these resource occurrences, in the [[Western Hemisphere]], are approximately equal to the Identified Reserves of conventional crude oil accredited to the Middle East."<ref>[http://www.runet.edu/~wkovarik/oil/3unconventional.html Excluding Unconventional World Oil Reserves<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> Authorities familiar with the resources believe that the world's ultimate reserves of non-conventional oil are several times as large as those of conventional oil and will be highly profitable for companies as a result of higher prices in the 21st century.<ref>{{cite paper |
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| first = Dr. Maurice |
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| last = Dusseault |
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| title = Emerging Technology for Economic Heavy Oil Development |
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| publisher = Alberta Department of Energy |
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| year = 2002 |
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| url = http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/OilSands/pdfs/RPT_Chops_app2.pdf |
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| format = PDF |
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| accessdate = 2008-05-24}} |
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</ref> [[Image:Total World Oil Reserves.PNG|thumb|250px|Unconventional oil reserves are much larger than conventional ones.<ref>{{cite paper |
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| author = Alboudwarej et al |
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| title = Highlighting Heavy Oil |
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| publisher = Oilfield Review |
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| date = Summer 2006 |
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| url = http://www.slb.com/media/services/resources/oilfieldreview/ors06/sum06/heavy_oil.pdf |
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| format = PDF |
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| accessdate = 2008-05-24}}</ref>]] |
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Despite the large quantities of oil available in non-conventional sources, Matthew Simmons argues that limitations on production prevent them from becoming an effective substitute for conventional crude oil. Simmons states that "these are high energy intensity projects that can never reach high volumes" to offset significant losses from other sources.<ref>[http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=9692 Resource Investor - Energy - Oil Doomsday is Nigh, Tar Sands Not a Substitute<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> Another study claims that even under highly optimistic assumptions, "Canada's oil sands will not prevent peak oil," although production could reach 5 million bbl/day by 2030 in a "crash program" development effort.<ref name=SöEtAl2007>{{cite journal |
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| url = http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Tarsandsarticle.pdf |
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| format = PDF |
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| doi = 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.06.007 |
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| author = Söderbergh, B.; Robelius, F.; Aleklett, K. |
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| journal = Energy Policy |
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| volume = 35 |
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| issue = 3 |
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| pages = 1931–1947 |
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| year = 2007 |
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| publisher = [[Elsevier]] |
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| title = A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry |
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| accessdate = 2008-06-17 |
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}}</ref> Moreover, oil extracted from these sources typically contains contaminants such as [[sulfur]], [[heavy metals]] and [[carbon]] that are energy-intensive to extract and leave highly toxic [[tailings]].<ref>{{cite journal |
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|url=http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/els/0926860x/1996/00000140/00000001/art00003;jsessionid=3m8ami2asmq0g.alexandra |
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|title=Downhole heavy crude oil hydroprocessing |
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|journal=Applied Catalysis A General |
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|author=Weissman Jeffrey G, Kessler Richard V |
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|date=1996-06-20 |
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|volume=140 |
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|number=1 |
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|pages=pp. 1-16(16) |
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|doi=10.1016/0926-860X(96)00003-8 |
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}}</ref> The same applies to much of the [[Middle East]]'s undeveloped conventional oil reserves, much of which is heavy, viscous and contaminated with sulfur and metals to the point of being unusable.<ref>{{cite paper |
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| first = David |
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| last = Fleming |
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| title = After Oil |
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| publisher = Prospect Magazine |
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| year = 2000 |
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| url = http://www.geocities.com/davidmdelaney/after-oil-david-fleming.html |
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| accessdate = 2008-05-24 |
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}}</ref> However, [[Oil price increaces since 2003|recent high oil prices]] make these sources more financially appealing.<ref name=nyt08212005>{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/magazine/21OIL.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all |
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|title=The Breaking Point |
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|author=Maass Peter |
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|date=2005-08-21 |
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|publisher=[[New York Times]] |
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}}</ref> A study by Wood Mackenzie suggests that within 15 years all the world’s extra oil supply will likely come from unconventional sources.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/11ba213e-bf7e-11db-9ac2-000b5df10621.html |
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|title=Study sees harmful hunt for extra oil |
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|publisher=[[Financial Times]] |
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|author=Hoyos Carola |
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|date=2007-02-18 |
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}}</ref> |
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A 2003 article in [[Discover (magazine)|Discover magazine]] claimed that [[thermal depolymerization]] could be used to manufacture oil indefinitely, out of garbage, sewage, and agricultural waste. The article claimed that the cost of the process was $15 per barrel.<ref> |
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{{cite journal |
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| url=http://discovermagazine.com/2003/may/featoil/ |
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| date=2003-05-01 |
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| author=Lemley Brad |
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| title=Anything Into Oil |
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| journal=[[Discover (magazine)|Discover magazine]] |
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}}</ref> A follow-up article in 2006 stated that the cost was actually $80 per barrel because the feedstock which had previously been considered as hazardous waste now had market value.<ref> |
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{{cite journal |
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| url=http://discovermagazine.com/2006/apr/anything-oil/ |
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| date=2006-04-02 |
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| author=Lemley Brad |
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| title=Anything Into Oil |
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| journal=[[Discover (magazine)|Discover magazine]] |
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}}</ref> |
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===Production=== |
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{{Main|Petroleum#Means of production|Extraction of petroleum}} |
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[[Image:MEESchart.png|right|thumb|OPEC Crude Oil Production 2002-2006. Source: Middle East Economic Survey]] |
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The point in time when peak global oil production occurs is the measure which defines Peak oil. This is because production capacity is the main limitation of supply. Therefore, when production decreases, it becomes the main [[Bottleneck (logistics)|bottleneck]] to the petroleum [[Supply and demand|supply/demand]] equation. |
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World wide oil discoveries have been less than annual production since 1980.<ref name=ewg1007/> According to several sources, worldwide production is past or near its maximum.<ref name=deffeyes012007/><ref name=ewg1007/> |
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<ref name=cohen102007/><ref name=koppelaar092006/> |
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World oil production growth trends were flat from 2005 to 2008. According to a January 2007 [[International Energy Agency]] report, global supply (which includes biofuels, non-crude sources of petroleum, and use of strategic oil reserves, in addition to crude production) averaged {{convert|85.24|Moilbbl/d}} in 2006, up {{convert|0.76|Moilbbl/d}} (0.9%), from 2005.<ref name="IEA:World Oil Supply and Demand"> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/18jan07tab.pdf |
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|format=PDF |
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|title=World Oil Supply and Demand |
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|publisher=[[International Energy Agency]] |
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|date=2007-01-18 |
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}}</ref> Average yearly gains in global supply from 1987 to 2005 were {{convert|1.2|Moilbbl/d}} (1.7%).<ref name="IEA:World Oil Supply and Demand"/> |
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The IEA's March 2008 Oil Market report showed global supply to be 87.5 mb/d, compared to 84.3 mb/d in July 2007, a 3.8% increase on that interval. The great bulk of the increase came in the non-OPEC sector, which now makes up 65% of global production. |
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[[Image:Alaska Crude Oil Production.PNG|thumb|Alaska's oil production has declined 65% since peaking in 1988]] |
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Of the largest 21 fields, at least 9 are in decline.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://wsm.ie/story/1006 |
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|title=Peak Oil and Energy Resources |
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}}</ref> |
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In April, 2006, a [[Saudi Aramco]] spokesman admitted that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8% per year (with a national composite decline of about 2%).<ref name=eiaSAbrief>{{cite news |
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|title=Country Analysis Briefs: Saudi Arabia |
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|author= |
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|publisher=U.S. [[Energy Information Administration]] |
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|month=August | year=2008 |
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|accessdate=2008-09-04}} |
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</ref> |
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This information has been used to argue that [[Ghawar]], which is the largest oil field in the world and responsible for approximately half of Saudi Arabia's oil production over the last 50 years, has peaked.<ref>{{cite news |
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|url=http://energybulletin.net/27024.html |
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|title=Ghawar Is Dead! |
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|date=2007-03-09 |
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|publisher=[[Energy Bulletin]] |
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|author=Miller Matthew S |
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}}</ref><ref name=nyt08212005 /> |
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The world's second largest oil field, the [[Burgan Field|Burgan field]] in Kuwait, entered decline in November, 2005.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://energybulletin.net/10878.html |
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|title=Kuwait Oil Field, World's Second Largest, 'Exhausted' |
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|publisher=[[Bloomberg L.P.|Bloomberg]] |
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|date=2005-11-09 |
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|author=Cordahi James, Critchlow Andy |
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}}</ref> According to a study of the largest 811 oilfields conducted in early 2008 by [[Cambridge Energy Research Associates|CERA]], the average rate of field decline is 4.5% per year. There are also projects projected to begin production within the next decade which are hoped to offset these declines. The CERA report projects 2017 production level of over 100mbpd.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article3207311.ece |
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|title=World not running out of oil, say experts |
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|publisher=[[Times Online]] |
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|date=2008-01-18 |
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|author=Carl Mortishead |
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}}</ref> Kjell Aleklett of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas agrees with their decline rates, but considers the rate of new fields coming online -- 100% of all projects in development, but with 30% of them experiencing delays, plus a mix of new small fields and field expansions -- overly optimistic.<ref>http://www.peakoil.net/Aleklett/Review_CERA_report_20060808.doc</ref> |
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Mexico announced that its giant [[Cantarell Field]] entered depletion in March, 2006,<ref> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://eluniversal.com.mx/miami/vi_16934.html |
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|title=Canales: Output will drop at Cantarell field |
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|publisher=[[El Universal]] |
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|date=2006-02-10 |
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}}</ref> due to past overproduction. In 2000, [[PEMEX]] built the largest nitrogen plant in the world in an attempt to maintain production through nitrogen injection into the formation,<ref> {{cite paper |
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| first = Mikael |
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| last = Höök |
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| title = The Cantarell Complex: The dying Mexican giant oil field |
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| publisher = The Svedberg Laboratory, Uppsala University, Sweden |
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| year = 2007 |
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| url = http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Popular/Cantarell.pdf |
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| format = PDF |
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| accessdate = 2008-05-24}} |
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</ref> but by 2006, Cantarell was declining at a rate of 13% per year.<ref>{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=aGLn091nIGio |
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|title=Mexico's Largest Oil Field Output Falls to 4-Year Low |
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|publsher=[[Bloomberg L.P.|Bloomberg]] |
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|date=2006-08-01 (dead) |
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|author=Arai Adriana |
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}}</ref> |
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OPEC had vowed in 2000 to maintain a production level sufficient to keep oil prices between $22–28 per barrel, but did not prove possible. In its 2007 annual report, OPEC projected that it could maintain a production level which would stabilize the price of oil at around $50–60 per barrel until 2030.<ref>http://www.opec.org/library/World%20Oil%20Outlook/pdf/WorldOilOutlook.pdf</ref> On November 18, 2007, with oil above $98 a barrel, [[Abdullah of Saudi Arabia|King Abdullah]] of Saudi Arabia, a long-time advocate of stabilized oil prices, announced that his country would not increase production in order to lower prices.<ref>[http://forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/11/18/afx4352095.html OPEC Summit Roundup Production hike prospects fade as Abu Dhabi summit looms - Forbes.com<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> Saudi Arabia's inability, as the world's largest supplier, to stabilize prices through increased production during that period suggests that no nation or organization had the spare production capacity to lower oil prices. The implication is that those major suppliers who had not yet peaked were operating at or near full capacity.<ref name=nyt08212005 /> |
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Commentators have pointed to the [[Jack 2]] deep water test well in the [[Gulf of Mexico]], announced September 5, 2006,<ref> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://web.archive.org/web/20070611134044/http://chevron.com/news/press/2006/2006-09-05.asp |
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|title=Chevron Announces Record Setting Well Test at Jack |
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|date=2006-09-05 |
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|publisher=[[Chevron Corporation|Chevron]] |
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|author= |
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}}</ref> as evidence that there is no imminent peak in global oil production. According to one estimate, the field could account for up to 11% of US production within seven years.<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/05/AR2006090500275.html U.S. Oil Reserves Get a Big Boost - washingtonpost.com<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> However, even though oil discoveries are expected after the peak oil of production is reached,<ref> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://aspo-usa.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=52&Itemid=76 |
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|title=Jack-2 Test Well Behind The Hype |
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|date=2006-09-19 |
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|publisher=[[Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas]] |
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|author=Geyer Greg |
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}}</ref> the new reserves of oil will be harder to find and extract. The Jack 2 field, for instance, is more than {{convert|20000|ft|m}} under the sea floor in {{convert|7000|ft|m}} of water, requiring 8.5 kilometers of pipe to reach. Additionally, even the maximum estimate of {{convert|15|Goilbbl}} represents slightly less than 2 years of U.S. consumption at present levels.<ref>[http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/quickfacts/quickoil.html Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government], ''Energy Information Administration.''</ref> |
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The increasing investment in harder-to-reach oil is a sign of oil companies' belief in the end of easy oil.<ref name=bostonglobe122005/> In addition, while it is widely believed that increased oil prices spur an increase in production, an increasing number of oil industry insiders are now coming to believe that even with higher prices, oil production is unlikely to increase significantly beyond its current level. Among the reasons cited are both geological factors as well as "above ground" factors that are likely to see oil production plateau near its current level.<ref name=reuters010908> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7210632 |
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|title=Tough to pump more oil, even at $100 |
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|author=Mackey Peg, Lawler Alex |
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|journal=[[Manchester Guardian]] |
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|publisher=Reuters |
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|date=2008-01-09 |
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}}</ref> |
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Because [[world population]] grew faster than oil production, production ''[[per capita]]'' peaked in 1979 (preceded by a plateau during the period of 1973-1979).<ref name="RCDuncan2001"> |
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{{cite journal |
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| quotes = |
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| author = Duncan Richard C |
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| date = |
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| year = 2001 |
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| month = November |
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| title = The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge |
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| journal = [[Population & Environment]] |
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| volume = 22 |
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| issue = 5 |
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| pages = pp. 503–522 |
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| issn = 0199-0039 (Print) 1573-7810 (Online) |
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| doi = 10.1023/A:1010793021451 |
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| id = |
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| url = http://dieoff.org/page224.htm |
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| format = |
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| accessdate = |
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| laysummary = |
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| laysource = |
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}}</ref> |
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===Control over supply=== |
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Entities such as governments or cartels can artificially reduce supply to the world market by limiting access to the supply through nationalizing oil, cutting back on production, limiting drilling rights, imposing taxes, etc. International sanctions, corruption, and military conflicts can also reduce supply. |
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==== Nationalization of oil supplies ==== |
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{{main|Nationalization of oil supplies}} |
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Another factor affecting global oil supply is the [[nationalization]] of oil reserves by producing nations. The nationalization of oil occurs as countries begin to deprivatize oil production and withhold exports. Kate Dourian, Platts' Middle East editor, points out that while estimates of oil reserves may vary, politics have now entered the equation of oil supply. "Some countries are becoming off limits. Major oil companies operating in Venezuela find themselves in a difficult position because of the growing nationalization of that resource. These countries are now reluctant to share their reserves."<ref name=arabianbusiness> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=495829 |
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|title=Non-OPEC peak oil threat receding |
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|publisher=[[Arabian Business]] |
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|date=2007-07-06 |
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}}</ref> |
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According to consulting firm PFC Energy, only 7% of the world's estimated oil and gas reserves are in countries that allow companies like ExxonMobil free rein. Fully 65% are in the hands of state-owned companies such as Saudi Aramco, with the rest in countries such as Russia and Venezuela, where access by Western companies is difficult. The PFC study implies political factors are limiting capacity increases in [[Mexico]], Venezuela, [[Iran]], [[Iraq]], [[Kuwait]] and Russia. Saudi Arabia is also limiting capacity expansion, but because of a self-imposed cap, unlike the other countries.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.ft.com/cms/s/dd44e336-fe6a-11db-bdc7-000b5df10621.html |
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|title=Politics of oil seen as threat to supplies |
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|publisher=[[Financial Times]] |
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|author=McNulty Sheila |
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|date=2007-05-09 |
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}}</ref> As a result of not having access to countries amenable to oil exploration, ExxonMobil is not making nearly the investment in finding new oil that it did in 1981.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1626994,00.html |
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|title=No More Gushers for ExxonMobil |
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|publisher=''[[Time (magazine)|Time]]'' magazine |
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|author=Fox Justin |
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|date=2007-05-31 |
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}}</ref> |
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==== Monopoly/Cartel influence on supply ==== |
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{{further|[[Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries]]}} |
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OPEC is an alliance between 12 diverse oil producing countries (Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Gabon, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates) to control the supply of oil. OPEC's power was consolidated as various countries nationalized their oil holdings, and wrested decision-making away from the "Seven Sisters," (Anglo-Iranian, Socony-Vacuum, Royal Dutch Shell, Gulf, Esso, Texaco, and Calso.) and created their own oil companies to control the oil. OPEC tries to influence prices by restricting production. It does this by allocating each member country a quota for production. All 12 members agree to keep prices high by producing at lower levels than they otherwise would. There is no way to verify adherence to the quota, so every member faces the same incentive to ‘cheat’ the cartel.<ref>{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.cis.org.au/executive_highlights/EH2008/eh63608.html |
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|title=The Myth of OPEC |
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|author=Gaurav Sodhi |
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|publisher=Australian Financial Review |
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|date=2008-06-24 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-21 |
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}}</ref> Washington kept the oil flowing and gained favorable OPEC policies mainly by arming, and propping up Saudi regimes. According to some, the purpose for the second Iraq war is to break the back of OPEC and return control of the oil fields to western oil companies.<ref>{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/issues/iraq/justify/2007/1030whyiraq.htm |
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|title=Why Did We Invade Iraq Anyway? Putting a Country in Your Tank |
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|author=Michael Schwartz |
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|publisher=[[Global Policy]] |
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|date=2007-10-30 |
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|accessdate=2008-08-21 |
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}}</ref> |
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Alternately, commodities trader [[Raymond Learsy]], author of ''Over a Barrel: Breaking the Middle East Oil Cartel'', contends that OPEC has trained consumers to believe that oil is a much more finite resource than it is. To back his argument, he points to past false alarms and apparent collaboration.<ref name=nationalreview122003 /> He also believes that Peak Oil analysts are conspiring with OPEC and the oil companies to create a "fabricated drama of peak oil" in order to drive up oil prices and [[profit]]s. It is worth noting oil had risen to a little over $30/barrel at that time. A counter-argument was given in the Huffington Post after he and Steve Andrews, co-founder of [[ASPO]], debated on CNBC in June 2007.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=15568 |
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|title=Rejecting the Real 'Snake Oil' |
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|publisher=[[Huffington Post]] |
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|date=2007-06-29 |
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}}</ref> |
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== Timing of peak oil== |
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{{main|Predicting the timing of peak oil}} |
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[[Image:Hubbert US high.svg|right|thumb|200px|US oil production ([[lower 48]] crude oil only) and Hubbert high estimate.]] |
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[[M. King Hubbert]] initially predicted in 1974 that peak oil would occur in 1995 "if current trends continue."<ref name=grove1974> |
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{{cite journal |
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| quotes = |
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| author = Noel Grove, reporting M. King Hubbert |
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| date = |
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| year = 1974 |
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| month = June |
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| title = Oil, the Dwindling Treasure |
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| journal = [[National Geographic]] |
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| volume = |
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| issue = |
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| pages = |
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| issn = |
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| doi = |
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| id = |
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| url = http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/natgeog.htm |
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| format = |
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| accessdate = |
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| laysummary = |
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| laysource = |
|||
| laydate = |
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| quote = |
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}}</ref> However, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, global oil [[consumption (economics)|consumption]] actually dropped (due to the shift to [[Efficient energy use|energy-efficient]] cars,<ref name=epa072006> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.epa.gov/otaq/cert/mpg/fetrends/420s06003.htm |
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|title=Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2006 - Executive Summary |
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|publisher=[[EPA]] EPA420-S-06-003 |
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|date=2006-07 |
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}}</ref> the shift to [[electricity]] and [[natural gas]] for heating,<ref name=toth2006a> |
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{{cite journal |
|||
|title=Oil and nuclear power: Past, present, and future |
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|author=Ferenc L. Toth, Hans-Holger Rogner, |
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|journal=Energy Economics |
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|volume=28 |
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|year=2006 |
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|issue=1 – 25 |
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|pages=pg. 3 |
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|url=http://www.iaea.org/OurWork/ST/NE/Pess/assets/oil+np_toth+rogner0106.pdf |
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|format=PDF}}</ref> and other factors), then rebounded to a lower level of growth in the mid 1980s. Thus oil production did not peak in 1995, and has climbed to more than double the rate initially projected. This underscores the fact that the only reliable way to identify the timing of peak oil will be in retrospect. However, predictions have been refined through the years as up-to-date information becomes more readily available, such as new reserve growth data.<ref name=usgsreservegrowth> |
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{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/oilgas/addoilgas/reserve.html |
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|title=Reserve Growth |
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|publisher=[[USGS]] |
|||
|author= |
|||
|date= |
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}}</ref> Predictions of the timing of peak oil include the possibilities that it has recently occurred, that it will occur shortly, or that a plateau of oil production will sustain supply for up to 100 years. ''None'' of these predictions dispute the peaking of oil production, but disagree only on when it will occur. |
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According to Mathew Simmons, author of ''Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy'', "...peaking is one of these fuzzy events that you only know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror, and by then an alternate resolution is generally too late."<ref>{{cite conference |
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| first = Aleklett |
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| last = K. |
|||
| coauthors = Campbell, C. and Meyer, J |
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| title = Matthew Simmons Transcript |
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| booktitle = Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Oil Depletion, |
|||
| publisher = The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas |
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| date = May 26-27, 2003 |
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| location = Paris, France |
|||
| url = http://www.peakoil.net/iwood2003/MatSim.html |
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| accessdate = 2008-05-24}}</ref> |
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2005 [[John Tierney]] of the NYT agreed with [[Matthew Simmons]] about a bet (in the meanwhile about 10.000 $) concering 2010 oil prices. Simmons assumed 200 $ per barrel, Tierney believes bull markets in resource trading never stand for long. [[Julian Lincoln Simon]] widow shared in the bet<ref>John Tierney. ''The [[New York Times]].'' August 23 2005 [http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/23/opinion/23tierney.html „The $10,000 Question.“]</ref> |
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===Pessimistic predictions of future oil production=== |
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Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah told his subjects in 1998, "The oil boom is over and will not return... All of us must get used to a different lifestyle." Since then he has implemented a series of corruption reforms and government programs intended to lower Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil revenues. The royal family was put on notice to end its history of excess and new industries were created to diversify the national economy.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,212732-2,00.html |
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|title=How to Bring Change to the Kingdom |
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|publisher=Time |
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|date=2002-02-25 |
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|author=Macleod Scott |
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}}</ref> |
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The [[Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas]] (ASPO) predicted in their January 2008 newsletter that the peak in all oil (including non-conventional sources), would occur in 2010. This is earlier than the July 2007 newsletter prediction of 2011.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.aspo-ireland.org/contentFiles/newsletterPDFs/newsletter85_200801.pdf |
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|format=PDF |
|||
|title=Newsletter |
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|volume=85 |
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|publisher=[[Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas]] |
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|author= |
|||
|date=2008-01 |
|||
}}</ref> |
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ASPO Ireland in its May 2008 newsletter, number 89, revised its depletion model and advanced the date of the peak of overall liquids from 2010 to 2007.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.aspo-ireland.org/contentFiles/newsletterPDFs/newsletter89_200805.pdf |
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|format=PDF |
|||
|title=Newsletter |
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|volume=89 |
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|publisher= Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Ireland |
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|author= |
|||
|date=2008-05 |
|||
}}</ref> |
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[[Kenneth S. Deffeyes]] argued at one point that world oil production peaked on December 16, 2005.<ref name=deffeyes012007> |
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{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html |
|||
|title=Current Events - Join us as we watch the crisis unfolding |
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|date=2007-01-19 |
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|publisher=[[Princeton University: Beyond Oil]] |
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|author=Kenneth S. Deffeyes |
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}}</ref> |
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[[Sadad Al Husseini]], former head of [[Saudi Aramco]]'s production and exploration, stated in an October 29, 2007 interview that oil production had likely already reached its peak in 2006,<ref name=cohen102007/> and that assumptions by the IEA and EIA of production increases by OPEC to over 45 MB/day are "quite unrealistic."<ref name=cohen102007/> |
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[[Texas]] oilman [[T. Boone Pickens]] stated in 2005 that worldwide conventional oil production was very close to peaking.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.peakoil.net/BoonPickens.html |
|||
|title=Boone Pickens Warns of Petroleum Production Peak |
|||
|publisher=[[Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas]] |
|||
|date=2005-05-03 |
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|author= |
|||
}}</ref> On June 17, 2008, in testimony before the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Pickens stated that "I do believe you have peaked out at 85 million barrels a day globally,".<ref> |
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{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://uk.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUKN1734058420080617 |
|||
|title=World crude production has peaked: Pickens |
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|publisher=Reuters |
|||
|date=2008-06-17 |
|||
|author=Melvin Jasmin |
|||
}}</ref> Data from the US [[Energy Information Administration]] show that world production leveled out in 2004, and reached a peak in the third quarter of 2006, {{Fact|date=August 2008}} and an October 2007 retrospective report by the [[Energy Watch Group]] concluded that this was the peak of conventional oil production.<ref name=ewg1007/> |
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[[Image:Hubbert world 2004.png|thumb|right|2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in [[OPEC]] and the [[former Soviet Union]]]] |
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[[Image:Crude NGPL IEAtotal 1960-2004.png|right|thumb|World Crude Oil Production 1960-2004. Sources: DOE/EIA, IEA]] |
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The July 2007 [[International Energy Agency|IEA]] Medium-Term Oil Market Report projected a 2% non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2007-2009, reaching 51.0 mb/d in 2008, receding thereafter as the slate of verifiable investment projects diminishes. They refer to this decline as a plateau. The report expects only a small amount of supply growth from OPEC producers, with 70% of the increase coming from [[Saudi Arabia]], the [[UAE]] and [[Angola]] as security and investment issues continue to impinge on oil exports from Iraq, [[Nigeria]] and Venezuela.<ref name=IEAMediumTermMarketReport200707> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://omrpublic.iea.org/ |
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|title=Medium-Term Oil Market Report |
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|date=2007-07 |
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|publisher=[[IEA]] |
|||
}}</ref> |
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In October 2007, the Energy Watch Group, a German research group founded by MP [[Hans-Josef Fell]], released a report claiming that oil production peaked in 2006 and will decline by several percent annually. The authors predict negative economic effects and social unrest as a result.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,,2196435,00.html?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront |
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|title=Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study |
|||
|author=Seager Ashley |
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|date=2007-10-22 |
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|publisher=[[The Guardian]] |
|||
}}</ref><ref name=ewg1007/> They state that the IEA production plateau prediction uses purely economic models which rely on an ability to raise production and discovery rates at will.<ref name=ewg1007/> |
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[[Matthew Simmons]], Chairman of [[Simmons & Company International]], said on October 26, 2006 that global oil production may have peaked in December 2005, though he cautions that further monitoring of production is required to determine if a peak has actually occurred.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.energybulletin.net/21696.html |
|||
|title=Peak oil |
|||
|date=2006-10-28 |
|||
}}</ref> |
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===Optimistic predictions of future oil production=== |
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Non-'peakists' can be divided into several different categories based on their specific criticism of Peak Oil. Some claim that any peak will not come soon or have a dramatic effect on the world economies. Others claim we will not reach a peak for technological reasons, while still others claim our oil reserves are regenerated quickly over time. |
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====Plateau oil==== |
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[[Cambridge Energy Research Associates|CERA]], which counts [[Peak oil#Unconventional_sources|unconventional sources]] in [[oil reserves|reserves]] while discounting [[EROEI]], believes that global production will eventually follow an “undulating plateau” for one or more decades before declining slowly.<ref name=energybulletin112006/> In 2005 the group had predicted that "petroleum supplies will be expanding faster than demand over the next five years."<ref name=csm062005a> |
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{{cite news |
|||
|url=http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0622/p25s02-wogi.html |
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|title=One energy forecast: Oil supplies grow |
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|publisher=[[Christian Science Monitor]] |
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|date=2005-06-22 |
|||
}}</ref> |
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In 2007, [[The Wall Street Journal]] reported that "a growing number of oil-industry chieftains" believed that oil production would soon reach a ceiling for a variety of reasons, and plateau at that level for some time. Several chief executives stated that projections of over 100 million barrels of production per day are unrealistic, contradicting the projections of the [[International Energy Agency]] and US [[Energy Information Administration]].<ref name="wsj111907golddavis">{{cite news |
|||
|url=http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=16726 <!--- this is a *free* syndication of WSJ ---> |
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|title=Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production |
|||
|author= Gold Russell, Davis Ann |
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|date=2007-11-10 |
|||
|publisher=[[The Wall Street Journal]] |
|||
|accessdate=2008-08-22 |
|||
}}</ref> |
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====Energy Information Administration and USGS 2000 reports==== |
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The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects world consumption of oil to increase to {{convert|98.3|Moilbbl/d}} in 2015 and {{convert|118|Moilbbl/d}} in 2030.<ref name=eia2006a> |
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{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/ieoreftab_4.pdf |
|||
|format=PDF |
|||
|publisher=[[Electronic Industries Alliance|EIA]] |
|||
|author= |
|||
|title=World Oil Consumption by region, Reference Case |
|||
|year=2006 |
|||
}}</ref> This would require a more than 35% increase in world oil production by 2030. A 2004 paper by the Energy Information Administration based on data collected in 2000 disagrees with Hubbert peak theory on several points:<ref name=wood082004/> |
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* Explicitly incorporates demand into model as well as supply |
|||
* Does not assume pre/post-peak symmetry of production levels |
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* Models pre- and post-peak production with different functions (exponential growth and constant reserves-to-production ratio, respectively) |
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* Assumes reserve growth, including via technological advancement and exploitation of small reservoirs |
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The EIA estimates of future oil supply are countered by Sadad Al Husseini, retired VP Exploration of Aramco, who calls it a 'dangerous over-estimate'.<ref name=channel4a> |
|||
{{cite news |
|||
|url=http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/business_money/oil+expert+us+overestimates+future+oil+supplies/254293 |
|||
|title=Oil expert: US overestimates future oil supplies |
|||
|publisher=Channel 4 News |
|||
}}</ref> Husseini also points out that population growth and the emergence of China and India means oil prices are now going to be structurally higher than they have been. |
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[[Colin Campbell (geologist)|Colin Campbell]] argues that the 2000 USGS estimates is a methodologically flawed study that has done incalculable damage by misleading international agencies and governments. Campbell dismisses the notion that the world can seamlessly move to more difficult and expensive sources of oil and gas when the need arises. He argues that oil is in profitable abundance or not there at all, due ultimately to the fact that it is a liquid concentrated by nature in a few places having the right [[geology]]. Campbell believes [[OPEC]] countries raised their reserves to get higher oil quotas and to avoid internal critique. He also points out that the USGS failed to extrapolate past discovery trends in the world’s mature basins.<ref name=campbell122002> |
|||
{{cite news |
|||
|url=http://www.oilcrisis.com/news/article.asp?id=3659&ssectionid=0 |
|||
|title=Campbell replies to USGS: Global Petroleum Reserves - A View to the Future |
|||
|publisher=[[Oil Crisis]] |
|||
|author= |
|||
|date=2002-12-01 |
|||
}}</ref> |
|||
====No Peak Oil==== |
|||
[[Abdullah S. Jum'ah]], President, Director and CEO of [[Saudi Aramco]] states that the world has adequate reserves of conventional and nonconventional oil sources that will last for more than a century.<ref> |
|||
{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.ogj.com/display_article/312081/7/ONART/none/GenIn/1/WEC:-Saudi-Aramco-chief-dismisses-peak-oil-fears/ |
|||
|title=Aramco chief says world's Oil reserves will last for more than a century |
|||
|author= |
|||
|publisher=Oil and Gas Journal |
|||
|date= |
|||
}}</ref><ref> |
|||
{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.worldenergysource.com/articles/text/jumah_WE_v8n1.cfm |
|||
|title=Rising to the Challenge: Securing the Energy Future |
|||
|author=Jum’ah Abdallah S. |
|||
|publisher=World Energy Source |
|||
|date= |
|||
}}</ref> |
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As recently as 2008 he pronounced "We have grossly underestimated mankind’s ability to find new reserves of petroleum, as well as our capacity to raise recovery rates and tap fields once thought inaccessible or impossible to produce.” Jum’ah believes that in-place conventional and non-conventional liquid resources may ultimately total between 13 trillion and 16 trillion barrels and that only a small fraction (1.1 trillion) has been extracted to date.<ref name=Glover2008>{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=764 |
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|title=Aramco Chief Debunks Peak Oil |
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|publisher=Energy Tribune |
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|author=Peter Glover |
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|date=2008-01-17 |
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|accessdate=2008-07-10 |
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}}</ref> |
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{{cquote2|I do not believe the world has to worry about ‘peak oil’ for a very long time.|[[Abdullah S. Jum'ah]], 2008-01<ref name=Glover2008/>}} |
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Some commentators, such as economist [[Michael Lynch (economist)|Michael Lynch]], say that the Hubbert Peak theory is flawed and that there is no imminent peak in oil production; a view sometimes referred to as "[[cornucopian]]" by believers in Hubbert Peak Theory. Lynch argued in 2004 that production is determined by demand as well as geology, and that fluctuations in oil supply are due to political and economic effects as well as the physical processes of exploration, discovery and production.<ref> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.energyseer.com/NewPessimism.pdf |
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|format=PDF |
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|title=The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers) |
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|author=Lynch Michael C |
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|publisher=American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004 |
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|year=2004 |
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}}</ref> This idea is echoed by [[Jad Mouawad]], who explains that as oil prices rise, new extraction technologies become viable, thus expanding the total recoverable oil reserves. This, according to Mouwad, is one explanation of the changes in peak production estimates.<ref name=mouawad032005> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/05/business/05oil1.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2&hp |
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|title=Oil Innovations Pump New Life Into Old Wells |
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|author=Mouawad, Jad |
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|date=2007-03-05 |
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|publisher=New York Times |
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}}</ref> |
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[[Leonardo Maugeri]], CEO of [[ENI]] dismissed the peak oil thesis in an peer reviewed article in [[Science (journal)]] as "the current model of oil doomsters" based on several flawed assumptions. According to him, neither the geological structure of earth is as thoroughly explored as necessary nor necessary global production, discovery trend and geological data are available globally. Maugeri refers to predictions based on the Hubbert Model which subsequently had to be revised in the last 20 years. He concludes the worst effect of the Peak Oil thesis and its predecessors as regurlarly recurring oil panicking which lead e.g. western political circles toward oil imperialism. According Maugeri, catastrophic views fail to take into account a complex reality allowing reliance on abundant oil supplies for years to come<ref>May 20 2004, Science, Oil: Never Cry Wolf—Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over, by Leonardo Maugeri</ref>. |
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====Abiogenesis==== |
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{{main|Abiogenic petroleum origin}} |
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The theory that petroleum is derived from [[Fossil fuel#Origin|biogenic processes]] is held by the overwhelming majority of petroleum geologists. Abiogenic theorists however, such as the late professor of astronomy [[Thomas Gold]] at [[Cornell University]], assert that the source of oil may not be a limited supply of “fossil fuels”, but instead an [[abiotic]] process. They theorize that if abiogenic petroleum sources are found to be abundant, Earth would contain vast reserves of untapped petroleum.<ref name=nyquist052006> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2006/0508.html |
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|title=Debunking Peak Oil |
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|author=Nyquist JR |
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|date=2006-05-08 |
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|publisher=[[Financial Sense]] |
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}}</ref> A February 2008 article on abiogenic low-carbon hydrocarbon production using data from experiments at [[Lost City (hydrothermal field)|Lost City]] reported how the abiotic synthesis of C1 to C4 hydrocarbons (though not petroleum) may occur in the presence of ultramafic rocks, water, and moderate amounts of heat.<ref>Science Magazine, ''[http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/319/5863/604 Abiogenic Hydrocarbon Production at Lost City Hydrothermal Field]'' February 2008 </ref> |
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The most important counter arguments to the abiotic theory involve various [[Biomarker (petroleum)|biomarker]]s which have been found in all samples of all the oil and gas accumulations found to date. The prevailing view among geologists and petroleum engineers is that this evidence "provides irrefutable proof that 99.99999% of all the oil and gas accumulations found up to now in the planet earth have a biologic origin." In this process, oil is generated from [[kerogen]] by [[pyrolysis]].<ref name=mello2005> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.searchanddiscovery.net/documents/abstracts/2005research_calgary/abstracts/extended/mello/mello.htm |
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|title=Petroleum: To Be Or Not To Be Abiogenic |
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|author=Mello MR, Moldowan JM |
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|year=2005 |
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|publisher=searchanddiscovery.net |
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}}</ref> While, Thomas Gold hypothesized that bacteria exist deep within the Earth's crust, and are the source of the biomarkers,<ref>T. Gold: Proceedings of National Academy of Science http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/89/13/6045</ref> these bacteria have not been found, the natural abiogenic formation of high-carbon hydrocarbons has not been demonstrated, and evidence for the biotic origin of petroleum is abundant. |
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==Possible effects and consequences of Peak Oil== |
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{{see|Malthusian catastrophe|Olduvai theory|Backstop resources}} |
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:''For information on the timing of peak oil, see [[Predicting the timing of peak oil]] |
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The widespread use of fossil fuels has been one of the most important stimuli of [[economic growth]] and prosperity since the [[industrial revolution]], allowing humans to participate in takedown, or the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced. Some believe that when oil production decreases, human culture and modern technological society will be forced to change drastically. The impact of Peak oil will depend heavily on the rate of decline and the development and adoption of [[Mitigation of peak oil|effective alternatives]]. If alternatives are not forthcoming, the [[Petrochemical|products produced with oil]] (including fertilizers, detergents, solvents, adhesives, and most [[plastic]]s) would become scarce and expensive. At the very least this could lower living standards in developed and developing countries alike, and in the worst case lead to worldwide economic collapse. With increased tension between countries over dwindling oil supplies, political situations may change dramatically and inequalities between countries and regions may become exacerbated. |
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===The Hirsch Report=== |
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{{main|Hirsch report}} |
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In 2005, the [[US Department of Energy]] published a report titled ''Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management''.<ref>[http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf Microsoft Word - NETL Final Report, 2-05.doc<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> Known as the [[Hirsch report]], it stated, "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking." |
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==== Conclusions from the Hirsch Report and three scenarios ==== |
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* World oil peaking is going to happen, and it will be abrupt and revolutionary. |
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* Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly those most dependent on oil. |
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* Oil peaking presents a unique challenge (“it will be abrupt and revolutionary”). |
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* The problem is liquid fuels (growth in demand mainly from the transportation sector). |
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* Mitigation efforts will require substantial time. |
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** 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts |
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** A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers |
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** Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences. |
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* Both supply and demand will require attention. |
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* It is a matter of risk management (mitigating action must come before the peak). |
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* Government intervention will be required. |
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* Economic upheaval is not inevitable (“given enough lead-time, the problems can be solved with existing technologies.”) |
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* More information is needed to more precisely determine the peak time frame. |
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'''Possible Scenarios:''' |
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* Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades. |
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* Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked. |
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* Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period. |
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===Other predictions=== |
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{{further|[[Malthusian catastrophe]]}} |
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====Agricultural effects==== |
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{{further|[[Peak oil#Agriculture and population limits|Agriculture and population limits]], [[Agriculture#Agriculture_and_petroleum|Agriculture and petroleum]], [[Food security]], and [[Food vs fuel]]}} |
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====Transportation and housing==== |
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[[Image:Cincinnati-suburbs-tract-housing.jpg|thumb|250px|Housing subdivision near [[Union, Kentucky]], a suburb of [[Cincinnati, Ohio]].]] |
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A majority of Americans live in [[suburbs]], a type of low-density settlement designed around universal personal [[automobile]] use. Commentators such as [[James Howard Kunstler]] argue that because over ninety percent of transportation in the United States relies on oil, the suburbs' reliance on the automobile is an unsustainable living arrangement. Peak oil would leave many Americans unable to afford petroleum based fuel for their cars, and force them to move to higher density areas, where walking and public transportation are more viable options. Suburbia may become the "[[slum]]s of the future."<ref name=geonowhere>[[Kunstler, James Howard]] (1994). ''Geography Of Nowhere: The Rise And Decline of America's Man-Made Landscape''. New York: Simon & Schuster. ISBN 0-671-88825-0</ref><ref>{{cite video |
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| people = [[James Howard Kunstler]] |
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| title = The tragedy of suburbia |
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| url = http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/121 |
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| medium = |
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| publisher = [[TED (conference)|TED]]: Ideas worth sharing |
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| location = Monterey, CA |
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|month=February | year=2004}} |
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</ref> The issues of petroleum supply and demand is also a concern for growing cities in developing countries (were urban areas are expected to absorb most of the worlds projected 2.3 billion population increase by 2050). Stressing the energy component of future development plans is seen as an important goal.<ref>{{cite web |
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|url=http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID1221622_code1033336.pdf?abstractid=1221622 |
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|title=The Urban Component of the Energy Crisis |
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|accessdate=2008-08-13 |
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|author=Vittorio E. Pareto, Marcos P. Pareto |
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}}</ref> |
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Methods which have been suggested for mitigating the urban and suburban issues surrounding Peak oil include non-petroleum vehicles, [[transit-oriented development]], [[Light rail|new trains]], [[new pedestrianism]], [[smart growth]], [[shared space]], and [[New Urbanism]]. |
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===Mitigation=== |
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{{main|Mitigation of peak oil|Energy conservation|Energy development|Energy security}} |
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To avoid the serious [[society|social]] and [[economics|economic]] implications a global decline in oil production could entail, the [[Hirsch report]] emphasized the need to find alternatives at least 10-20 years before the peak, and to phase out the use of petroleum over that time,<ref>Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, Robert Wendling, [http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf "Peaking of world oil production: impacts, mitigation, & risk management"] February 2005</ref> similar to [[Oil phase-out in Sweden|the plan Sweden announced]] in 2005. Such [[Mitigation of peak oil|mitigation]] could include energy conservation, fuel substitution, and the use of non-conventional oil. Because mitigation can reduce the consumption of traditional petroleum sources, it can also affect the timing of peak oil and the shape of the [[Hubbert curve]]. |
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===Positive aspects of peak oil=== |
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There are those who believe that peak oil should be viewed as a positive event.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.beyondpeak.com/scenarios/winners.html |
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|publisher=Mick Winter (ed.) |
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|title=Winners: First Annual Beyond Peak Scenario Contest |
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|year=2006}} |
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</ref> Many of these critics reason that if the price of oil rises high enough, the use of alternative clean fuels could help control the pollution of fossil fuel use as well as mitigate [[global warming]].<ref name=Hansen2007>{{cite journal |
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| url = http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/testimony_26april2007.pdf |
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| author = Hansen, J. |
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| title = Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate |
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| journal = Testimony to Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, United States House of Representatives |
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| volume = 26 |
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| year = 2007 |
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| accessdate = 2008-07-02 |
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|format=PDF}}</ref> Others, in particular [[anarcho-primitivism|anarcho-primitivists]], are hopeful that it will cause or contribute to the collapse of civilization.<ref> |
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{{cite book |
|||
|last=Jensen |
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|first=Derrick |
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|authorlink=Derrick Jensen |
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|title=[[Endgame (Derrick Jensen books)|Endgame, Volume 1: The Problem of Civilization]] |
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|year=2006 |
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|publisher=[[Seven Stories Press]] |
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|location=[[New York City]] |
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|isbn=978-1-58322-730-5 |
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}}</ref> |
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== Peak oil for individual nations == |
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[[Image:Hubbert US high.svg|right|thumb|200px|US oil production (lower 48 crude oil only) and Hubbert's high estimate.]] |
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[[Image:Canadian Oil Production 1960 to 2020.png|thumb|200px|right|Canadian conventional oil production peaked in 1973, but oil sands production is forecast to increase to at least 2020]] |
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[[Image:Mexican Petroleum Production.PNG|thumb|200px|Mexican production peaked in 2004 and is now in decline]] |
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{{See|List of oil fields}} |
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Peak Oil as a concept applies globally, but it is based on the summation of individual nations experiencing peak oil. |
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In ''State of the World 2005'', [[Worldwatch Institute]] observes that oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing countries.<ref>{{cite book |
|||
|last=WorldWatch Institute |
|||
|title=State of the World 2005: Redefining Global Security |
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|date=2005-01-01 |
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|publisher=[[W. W. Norton & Company|Norton]] |
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|location=New York |
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|pages=107 |
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|isbn=0-393-32666-7 |
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}}</ref> [[Oil reserves#Countries that have already passed their production peak|Other countries]] have also passed their individual oil production peaks. |
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The following list shows significant oil-producing nations and their approximate peak oil production years, organized by year.<ref>Unless otherwise specified, source is [http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/ ABC TV's Four Corners].</ref> |
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* Japan: 1932 (assumed; source does not specify) |
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* Germany: 1966 |
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* Libya: 1970 |
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* Venezuela: 1970 |
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* USA: 1970<ref>http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/stb0501.xls</ref> |
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* Iran: 1974 |
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* Nigeria: 1979 |
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* Tobago: 1981<ref>[http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=tt&product=oil&graph=production Trinidad and Tobago Crude Oil Production by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> |
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* Egypt: 1987<ref>[http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=eg&product=oil&graph=production+consumption Egypt Crude Oil Production and Consumption by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> |
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* Russia: an artificial peak occurred in 1987 shortly before the [[Collapse of the Soviet Union]], but production subsequently recovered, making Russia the second largest oil exporter in the world. Figures from early 2008, statements by officials, and analysis suggest that production may have peaked in 2006/2007.<ref>{{cite news|publisher=BBC News|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7347771.stm|title= Oil price hits $113. 93 a barrel|date=2008-04-15}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|url=http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/Aram_Thesis.pdf|title=Russian Oil - a Depletion Rate Model estimate of the future Russian oil production and export|author=Aram Mäkivierikko|publisher=[[Uppsala University]]|date=2007-10-01|format=PDF}}</ref> [[Lukoil]] vice president Leonid Fedun has said $1 trillion would have to be spent on developing new reserves if current production levels were to be maintained.<ref>{{cite news|publisher=BBC News|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7348463.stm|title= 'Threat' to future of Russia oil |date=2008-04-15}}</ref> |
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* France: 1988 |
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* Indonesia: 1991<ref>[http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=id&product=oil&graph=production+consumption Indonesia Crude Oil Production and Consumption by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> |
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* Syria: 1996 <ref>[http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=sy&product=oil&graph=production+consumption Syrian Arab Republic Crude Oil Production and Consumption by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> |
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* India: 1997 |
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* New Zealand: 1997<ref>[http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=nz&product=oil&graph=production New Zealand Crude Oil Production by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> |
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* UK: 1999 |
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* Norway: 2000<ref>[http://e24.no/olje/article2087528.ece#VG Helge Lund: - «Peak Oil» har kommet til Norge (Olje , Statoil)<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> |
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* Oman: 2000<ref>[http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=om&product=oil&graph=production+consumption Oman Crude Oil Production and Consumption by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> |
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* Mexico: 2004<ref> {{cite web |
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| title = Mexico says reform won't reverse oil woes fast |
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| publisher = Reuters |
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| date = July 29, 2008 |
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| url = http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService_3_MOLT/idUSN2934804720080729 |
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| accessdate = 2008-08-08}} </ref> |
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* Australia (disputed): 2004; 2001 |
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Peak oil production has not been reached in the following nations (these numbers are estimates and subject to revision):<ref>[http://abc.net.au/4corners/special_eds/20060710/ Four Corners Broadband Edition: Peak Oil<!-- Bot generated title -->]</ref> |
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* Iraq: 2018 |
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* Kuwait: 2013 |
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* Saudi Arabia: 2014 |
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In addition, the most recent [[International Energy Agency]] and [[Energy Information Administration|US Energy Information Administration]] production data show record and rising production in Canada and China. |
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==Oil price== |
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{{Main article|Oil price increases since 2003|Price of petroleum}} |
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[[Image:Oil Prices Medium Term.png|thumb|300px|Medium-Term Oil Prices, 1994-2008 (not adjusted for inflation).]] |
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[[Image:Oil Prices 1861 2007.svg|thumb|400px|Long-term oil prices, 1861-2007 (top line adjusted for inflation).]] |
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[[Image:Gascoupon.png|thumb|200px|Gas coupon printed but not used in [[1973 oil crisis]]]] |
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In terms of 2007 inflation adjusted dollars, the price of oil peaked on 30 June 2008 at over $143 a barrel. Before this period, the maximum inflation adjusted price was the equivalent of $95-100, in 1980.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
|||
| url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7048600.stm |
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| title=What is driving oil prices so high? |
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| publisher=BBC News |
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| date=2007-11-05 |
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}}</ref> Crude oil prices in the last several years have steadily risen from about $25 a barrel in August 2003 to over $130 a barrel in May 2008, with the most significant increases happening within the last year. These prices are well above those which caused [[1973 energy crisis|the 1973]] and [[1979 energy crisis|1979 energy crises]]. This has contributed to fears of an economic recession similar to that of the early 1980s.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
|||
|title=Oil Rally May Be Economy's Undoing |
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|url=http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080308/wall_main.html |
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|author=Bruno Joe Bel |
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|accessdate=2008-03-08 |
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|date=2008-03-08 |
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|publisher=AP |
|||
}}</ref> One important indicator which supported the possibility that the price of oil had begun to have an effect on economies was that in the United States, gasoline consumption dropped by .5% in the first two months of 2008,<ref> |
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{{cite news |
|||
|url=http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87924270 |
|||
| title=Americans Using Less Gasoline |
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| publisher=National Public Radio |
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| date=2008-03-05 |
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| author=Langfitt Frank |
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}}</ref> compared to a drop of .4% total in 2007.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
|||
| url=http://www.usnews.com/blogs/beyond-the-barrel/2008/3/4/oil-demand-is-dropping-but-prices-arent.html |
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| title=Oil Demand Is Dropping, but Prices Aren't |
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| publisher=[[U.S. News & World Report]] |
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| date=2008-03-04 |
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| author=Lavelle Marianne |
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}}</ref> |
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However some claim the decline in the US dollar against other significant currencies from 2007 to 2008 is a significant part of oil's price increases from $66 to $130.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
|||
|url=http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080521/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices;_ylt=Ar18NXln9PQYrb0j0MncR4ayBhIF |
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|title=Oil prices pass $132 after government reports supply drop |
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|publisher=Associated Press |
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|date=2008-04-21 |
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|author=John Wilen |
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}}</ref> The dollar lost approximately 14% of its value against the Euro from May 2007 to May 2008, and the price of oil rose 96% in the same time period. |
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Helping to fuel these price increases were reports that petroleum production is at<ref name=deffeyes012007> |
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{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/current-events.html |
|||
|title=Current Events - Join us as we watch the crisis unfolding |
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|date=2007-01-19 |
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|publisher=[[Princeton University: Beyond Oil]] |
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|author=Deffeyes Kenneth S |
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}}</ref><ref name=ewg1007/><ref name=cohen102007/> or near full capacity.<ref name="wsj111907golddavis"/> |
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<ref name=koppelaar092006/><ref name=autogenerated1>{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.petroleumworld.com/story07070906.htm |
|||
|title=Global oil prices jump to 11-month highs |
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|author= |
|||
|date=2007-07-09 |
|||
|publisher=[[Petroleum World]] |
|||
}}</ref> In June 2005, OPEC admitted that they would 'struggle' to pump enough oil to meet pricing pressures for the fourth quarter of that year.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
|||
|url=http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8225739/ |
|||
|title=Oil prices rally despite OPEC output hike |
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|publisher=[[MSNBC]] |
|||
|author= |
|||
|date=2005-06-15 |
|||
}}</ref> |
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Demand pressures on oil have been strong. Global consumption of oil rose from {{convert|30|Goilbbl}} in 2004 to 31 billion in 2005. These consumption rates are far above new discoveries for the period, which had fallen to only eight billion barrels of new oil reserves in new accumulations in 2004.<ref> |
|||
{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/12jul06dem.pdf |
|||
|format=PDF |
|||
|title=Oil Market Report - Demand |
|||
|publisher=[[International Energy Agency]] |
|||
|date=2006-07-12 |
|||
}}</ref> In 2005, consumption was within {{convert|2|Moilbbl/d}} of production, and at any one time there are about 54 days of stock in the [[OECD]] system plus 37 days in emergency stockpiles. |
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Besides supply and demand pressures, at times security related factors may have contributed to increases in prices,<ref name=autogenerated1 /> including the "[[War on Terror]]," missile launches in [[North Korea]],<ref>[http://edition.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/07/05/oil.price/index.html Missile tension sends oil surging]</ref> the [[2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict|Crisis between Israel and Lebanon]],<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7083015.stm Oil hits $100 barrel], BBC News</ref> nuclear [[brinkmanship]] between the US and [[Iran]],<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4684844.stm Iran nuclear fears fuel oil price], BBC News</ref> and reports from the [[U.S. Department of Energy]] and others showing a decline in [[petroleum reserves]]<!--<ref>http://today.reuters.com/business/newsarticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-07-13T231429Z_01_SP327883_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-OIL.xml</ref> Reference not available -->,<ref>{{cite news |
|||
| url=http://www.ameinfo.com/90848.html |
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| title=Record oil price sets the scene for $200 next year |
|||
| publisher=AME |
|||
| date=July 6, 2006 |
|||
| accessdate=2007-11-29 |
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}} |
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</ref> |
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Another factor in oil price is the cost of extracting crude. As the extraction of oil has become more difficult, oil's historically high ratio of [[EROEI|Energy Returned on Energy Invested]] has seen a significant decline. The increased price of oil makes [[Non-conventional oil|non-conventional sources of oil]] retrieval more attractive. For example, the so-called "[[tar sands]]" are actually a reserve of [[bitumen]], a heavier, lower value oil compared to conventional crude. It only became attractive to production companies when oil prices exceeded about $25/bbl, high enough to cover the costs of production and upgrading to [[synthetic crude]]. |
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===Effects of rising oil prices=== |
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{{Main|Oil_price_increases_of_2004-2008#Effects|l1=Effects of oil price}} |
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[[Image:World Energy consumption.png|thumb|right|300px|World consumption of primary energy by energy type in [[terawatt]]s (TW), 1965-2005.<ref name=eiatable19802004> |
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{{cite web |
|||
|publisher=[[Energy Information Administration]], [[U.S. Department of Energy]] |
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|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls |
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|title=World Consumption of Primary Energy by Energy Type and Selected Country Groups, 1980-2004 |
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|format=XLS |
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|date=2006-07-31 |
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|accessdate=2007-01-20 |
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}}</ref>]]<!--the data has been converted from Btu (unit of energy as is joules) to watts (unit of power). ie. 2004 Petroleum usage: 167.5 quadrillion Btu x 1055 joules / 3600s x 24h x 365days = 5.6 TJ/s or 5.6 TW--> |
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In the past, the price of oil has led to economic [[recession]]s, such as [[1973 energy crisis|the 1973]] and [[1979 energy crisis|1979 energy crises]]. The effect the price of oil has on an economy is known as a [[price shock]]. In many European countries, which have [[Gasoline usage and pricing|high taxes on fuels]], such price shocks could potentially be mitigated somewhat by temporarily or permanently suspending the taxes as fuel costs rise.<ref name=kanter112007> |
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{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/09/business/fuel.php |
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|title=European politicians wrestle with high gasoline prices |
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|author=James Kanter |
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|publisher=International Herald Tribune |
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|date=2007-11-09 |
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}}</ref> This method of softening price shocks is less in countries with much lower gas taxes, such as the United States. |
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Some economists predict that a [[substitution effect]] will spur demand for [[alternative fuel|alternate energy sources]], such as [[coal]] or [[liquefied natural gas]]. This substitution can only be temporary, as coal and natural gas are finite resources as well. |
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Prior to the run-up in fuel prices, many motorists opted for larger, less fuel-efficient [[sport utility vehicles]] and full-sized pickups in the United States, Canada and other countries. This trend has been reversing due to sustained high prices of fuel. The September 2005 sales data for all vehicle vendors indicated SUV sales dropped while small cars sales increased. [[hybrid vehicles|Hybrid]] and [[diesel engine|diesel]] vehicles are also gaining in popularity.<ref name=Fildes2007>{{cite journal |
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| author = Fildes, M.; Nelson, S.; Sener, N.; Steiner, F.; Suntharasaj, P.; Tarman, R.T.; Harmon, R.R. |
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| title = Marketing Opportunity Analysis for Daimler Chrysler's Sprinter Van Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle |
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| journal = Management of Engineering and Technology, Portland International Center for |
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| pages = 1797–1810 |
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| year = 2007 |
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}}</ref> |
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In 2008, a report by [[Cambridge Energy Research Associates]] stated that 2007 had been the year of peak gasoline usage in the United States, and that record energy levels would cause an "enduring shift" in energy consumption practices.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121392646391690835.html?mod=googlenews_wsj |
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|title=Prices Curtail U.S. Gasoline Use |
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|publisher=[[Wall Street Journal]] |
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|date=June 20, 2008 |
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|page=A4 |
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|author=Ana Campoy |
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}}</ref> According to the report, in April gas consumption had been lower than a year before for the sixth straight month, suggesting 2008 would be the first year US gasoline usage declined in 17 years. The total miles driven in the US peaked in 2006.<ref> |
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{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html?ref=business |
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|title=Driving Less, Americans Finally React to Sting of Gas Prices, a Study Says |
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|publisher=[[New York Times]] |
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|date=June 19, 2008 |
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|author=Clifford Krauss |
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}}</ref> |
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==Historical understanding of world oil supply limits== |
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Although the earth's finite oil supply means that peak oil is inevitable, technological innovations in finding and drilling for oil have at times changed the understanding of the total oil supply on Earth. As scientific understanding of petroleum geology has increased, so has our understanding of the earth's total recoverable reserves. Since 1965, major oil surveys have averaged a 95% confidence ''Estimated Ultimate Retrieval'' (P95 EUR) of a little under {{convert|2000|Goilbbl}}, though some estimates have been as low as {{convert|1500|Goilbbl}}, and as high as {{convert|2400|Goilbbl}}.<ref name=ewg1007/> |
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The EUR reported by the 2000 USGS survey of {{convert|2300|Goilbbl}} has been criticized for assuming a discovery trend over the next 20 years which would reverse the observed trend of the past 40 years. Their 95% confidence EUR of {{convert|2300|Goilbbl}} assumed that discovery levels would stay steady, despite the fact that discovery levels have been falling steadily since the 1960s. That trend of falling discoveries has continued in the 7 years since the USGS made their assumption. The 2000 USGS is also criticized for introducing other methodological errors, as well as assuming 2030 production rates which are inconsistent with projected reserves.<ref name=ewg1007/> |
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==Criticisms== |
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Some do not agree with Peak Oil, at least as it has been presented by [[Matthew Simmons]]. The president of [[Royal Dutch Shell|Royal Dutch Shell's]] US operations [[John Hofmeister]], while agreeing that conventional oil production will soon start to decline, has criticized Simmons's analysis for being "overly focused on a single country: Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter and OPEC swing producer." He also points to the large reserves at the "US [[Outer Continental Shelf]], which holds an estimated {{convert|100|Goilbbl}} of oil and natural gas. As things stand, however, only 15 percent of those reserves are currently exploitable, a good part of that off the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Texas. Hofmeister also contends that Simmons erred in excluding unconventional sources of oil such as the oil sands of Canada, where Shell is already active. The Canadian oil sands — a natural combination of sand, water and oil found largely in Alberta — is believed to contain one trillion barrels of oil. Another trillion barrels are also said to be trapped in rocks in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming,<ref name=HofmeisterPeakOilCriticism>[http://www.cnbc.com/id/23728987 The 'Peak Oil' Theory: Will Oil Reserves Run Dry?]</ref> but are in the form of [[oil shale]]. These particular reserves present major environmental, social, and economic obstacles to recovery.<ref>{{cite journal |
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|url=http://www.csbj.com/story.cfm?ID=9271 |
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|title=Oil shale exploration: bonanza or bust? |
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|publisher=The Colorado Springs Business Journal |
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|author=Amy Gillentine |
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|date=June 9, 2006 |
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}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal |
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|url=http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/12/after_the_tar_s.php |
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|title=A Return To Colorado Oil Shale? |
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|publisher=TreeHugger |
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|author=John Laumer |
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|date=2007-12-26 |
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}}</ref> Hofmeister also claims that if oil companies were allowed to drill more in the United States enough to produce another {{convert|2|Moilbbl/d}}, oil and gas prices would not be as high as they are in the later part of the 2000 to 2010 decade. He thinks that high energy prices are causing social unrest similar to levels surrounding the [[Rodney King]] riots.<ref name=HofmeiserCharlieRose>{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.charlierose.com/shows/2008/03/25/1/a-conversation-with-john-hofmeister |
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|author=[[Charlie Rose]] |
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|title=A conversation with [[John Hofmeister]] |
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|publisher=[[PBS]] |
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}}</ref> |
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Dr. Christoph Rühl, Chief economist of BP, repeatedly uttered strong doubts about the peak oil |
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hypothesis <ref>[http://www.euractiv.com/de/energie/bp-preisschwankungen-wahrscheinlich-zunehmen/article-175931] BP: Preisschwankungen werden wahrscheinlich zunehmenen, Interview (in English) mit Dr. Christoph Rühl, Mittwoch 1. Oktober 2008, Euractiv Website </ref> |
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<blockquote> |
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Physical peak oil, which I have no reason to accept as a valid statement either on theoretical, scientific or ideological grounds, would be insensitive to prices. (...)In fact the whole hypothesis of peak oil – which is that there is a certain amount of oil in the ground, consumed at a certain rate, and then it's finished – does not react to anything.... (Global Warming) is likely to be more of a natural limit than all these peak oil theories combined. (...) Peak oil has been predicted for 150 years. It has never happened, and it will stay this way. |
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</blockquote> |
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According to Rühl, the main limitations for oil availability are "above ground" and are to be found in the availability of staff, expertise, technology, investment security, money and last but not least in global warming. The oil question is about price and not the basic availability. His views are shared by [[Daniel Yergin]] of [[CERA]], who added that the recent high price phase might add to a future demise of the oil industry - not of lack of resources or an apocalyptic shock but the timely and smooth setup of alternatives <ref>Financial Times Germany, 29.05.2008 Daniel Yergin: Öl am Wendepunkt (Oil at the turing point)</ref> |
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==In Fiction== |
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A novel set in a Peak-Oil crisis is [[Alex Scarrow]]'s book - ''Last Light''.<ref>{{cite book |
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| last = Scarrow |
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| first = Alex |
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| authorlink = Alex Scarrow |
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| title = Last Light |
|||
| publisher = Orion |
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| series = |
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| year = 2007 |
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| doi = |
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| isbn = 0752886142 }}</ref> The book portrays the collapse of the United Kingdom, as a result of a full-scale terrorist attack against several important key installations in the Middle-East. It follows the experiences of a family, a father trapped in Iraq, a mother far away from her children, a daughter and son fending for themselves, as the complete break-down of law and order causes looting, deaths and worse. |
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[[James Howard Kunstler]], author of ''The Long Emergency''<ref>{{cite book |
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| last = Kunstler |
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| first = James Howard |
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| authorlink = James Howard Kunstler |
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| title = The Long Emergency |
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| publisher = Grove Press |
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| series = |
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| year = 2006 |
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| doi = |
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| isbn = 9780802142498 }}</ref> and ''The Geography of Nowhere''<ref>{{cite book |
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| last = Kunstler |
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| first = James Howard |
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| authorlink = James Howard Kunstler |
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| title = The Geography of Nowhere |
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| publisher = Simon & Schuster Adult Publishing Group |
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| series = |
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| year = 1994 |
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| doi = |
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| isbn = 9780671888251 }}</ref>, fictionalized his predictions of post-oil civilization into a novel entitled ''World Made by Hand''<ref>{{cite book |
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| last = Kunstler |
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| first = James Howard |
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| authorlink = James Howard Kunstler |
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| title = World Made by Hand |
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| publisher = Atlantic Monthly Press |
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| series = |
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| year = 2008 |
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| doi = |
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| isbn = 9780871139788 }}</ref><ref>{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.worldmadebyhand.com/ |
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|title=World Made by Hand |
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|author=[[James Howard Kunstler]] |
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|date= |
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|accessdate=2008-08-21 |
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}}</ref> The book portrays the efforts of Robert Earle, a former software executive elected mayor of a small town in New York State, who faces the struggle of rebuilding a civil society amid arguing factions. |
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The ''[[Mad Max]]'' movies are based in a [[dystopia]]n Australia, in which ([[Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior]] explains) the general social collapse has occurred because of a global energy shortage, particularly of oil. |
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==See also== |
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{{Portal|Sustainable development|Sustainable development.svg}} |
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{{EnergyPortal}} |
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*'''[[:Category:Peak oil]]''' |
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{|width=100% |
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|-valign=top |
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|width=50%| |
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'''Prediction''' |
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*[[Backstop resources]] |
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*[[Global strategic petroleum reserves]] |
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*[[Hirsch report]] |
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*[[Hubbert Linearization]] |
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*[[Malthusian catastrophe]] |
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*[[Oil depletion]] |
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* ''[[Oil Storm]]'', a [[docudrama]] about a future oil-shortage crisis. |
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*[[Olduvai theory]] |
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*''[[What a Way to Go: Life at the End of Empire]]'' - documentary film |
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*[[World energy resources and consumption]] |
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'''Technology''' |
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*[[Energy conservation]] |
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*[[Energy efficiency]] |
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*[[Energy development]] |
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*[[Green Revolution]] |
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*[[Fuel economy in automobiles]] |
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*[[Oil phase-out in Sweden]] |
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*[[Renewable energy]] |
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*[[Soft energy path]] |
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|width=50%| |
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'''Economics''' |
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*[[2007–2008 world food price crisis]] |
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*''[[The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era]]'' (book) |
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*[[Economic crisis of 2008]] |
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*[[Energy Accounting]] |
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*[[Energy security]] |
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*[[Econophysics]] |
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*[[Food security]] |
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*[[Gross domestic product per barrel]] |
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*[[Kuznets curve]] |
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*''[[Limits to Growth]]'' |
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*[[Low-carbon economy]] |
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*[[Oil crisis|Oil crises]] |
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*[[Oil price increases since 2003]] |
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*[[OPEC]] |
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*[[Thermoeconomics]] |
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'''Others''' |
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*''[[Energy Crisis and The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil]]'', a documentary about the [[Special Period]] |
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*[[Overpopulation]] |
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*[[Over-consumption]] |
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*[[Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth]] |
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*[[Oil Shockwave]] |
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|} |
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{{Peak oil|state=expanded}} |
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{{Petroleum industry}} |
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==Further information== |
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===Books=== |
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*[[Colin J. Campbell]], |
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**{{cite book |author=[[Colin J. Campbell|Campbell Colin J]] |title=The Essence of Oil & Gas Depletion |year=2004 |isbn=0-906522-19-6|publisher=Multi-Science Publishing}} |
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**{{cite book |author=[[Colin J. Campbell|Campbell Colin J]] |title=The Coming Oil Crisis |year=2004 |isbn=0-906522-11-0 |publisher=Multi-Science Publishing}} |
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**{{cite book |author=[[Colin J. Campbell|Campbell Colin J]] |title=Oil Crisis |year=2005 |isbn=0-906522-39-0 |publisher=Multi-Science Publishing}} |
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*[[Kenneth S. Deffeyes]], |
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**{{cite book |author=[[Kenneth S. Deffeyes|Deffeyes Kenneth S]] |title=Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage |isbn=0-691-09086-6 |year=2002 |publisher=Princeton University Press}} |
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**{{cite book |author=[[Kenneth S. Deffeyes|Deffeyes Kenneth S]] |title=Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak |isbn=0-8090-2956-1 |year=2005 |publisher=Hill and Wang}} |
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*{{cite book |author=Eberhart Mark |isbn=978-0307237446 |year=2007 |title=Feeding the Fire: The Lost History and Uncertain Future of Mankind's Energy Addiction|publisher=Harmony}} |
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*{{cite book|author=[[David Goodstein|Goodstein David]] |isbn=0-393-05857-3 |year=2005 |title=Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil |publisher=WW Norton}} |
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*[[Richard Heinberg]], |
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**{{cite book |author=[[Richard Heinberg|Heinberg Richard]] |title=The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies|isbn=0-86571-482-7 |year=2003 |publisher=New Society Publishers}} |
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**{{cite book |author=[[Richard Heinberg|Heinberg Richard]] |title=Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World |isbn=0-86571-510-6 |year=2004 |publisher=New Society Publishers}} |
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**{{cite book|author=[[Richard Heinberg|Heinberg Richard]]|title=The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse |isbn=0-86571-563-7 |year=2006 |publisher=New Society Publishers}} |
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*{{cite book |title=The Bottomless Well |author=Huber Peter |publisher=Basic Books |year=2005 |isbn=0-465-03116-1}} |
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*{{cite book |author=Kleveman Lutz C |title=The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia |year=2004 |isbn=0-87113-906-5 |publisher=Atlantic Monthly Press}} |
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*{{cite book |author=[[James Howard Kunstler|Kunstler James H]] |title=The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes |isbn=0-87113-888-3 |year=2005 |publisher=Atlantic Monthly Press}} |
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*{{cite book |author=[[Jeremy Leggett|Leggett Jeremy K]] |title=The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Financial Catastrophe|isbn=1-4000-6527-5 |year=2005 |publisher=Random House}} |
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*{{cite book |author=[[Jeremy Leggett|Leggett Jeremy K]] |title=Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis |isbn=1-8462-7004-9 |year=2005 |publisher=Portobello Books}} |
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*{{cite book|author=[[Jeremy Leggett|Leggett Jeremy K]] |title=The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era |isbn=0415931029 |year=2001 |publisher=Routledge}} |
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*{{cite book|author=[[Amory Lovins|Lovins Amory]] et al |title=[[Winning the Oil Endgame]]: Innovation for Profit, Jobs and Security |year=2005|isbn=1-881071-10-3|publisher=Rocky Mountain Institute}} |
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*{{cite book|title=The End of the Oil Age |year=2004 |author=Pfeiffer Dale Allen |publisher=Lulu Press |isbn=1-4116-0629-9}} |
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*{{cite book |author=[[Leonardo Maugeri]] |title=The Age of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the World's Most Controversial Resource|year=2006|isbn=0275990087|publisher=Greenwood Publishing Group}} |
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*[[Rashid, Ahmed]], |
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**{{cite book|author=[[Ahmed Rashid|Rashid Ahmed]] | title=Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia |year=2001 | publisher=Yale University Press | isbn=0-300-08902-3}} |
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**{{cite book | author=[[Ahmed Rashid|Rashid Ahmed]] | title=Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia | year=2003 | publisher=Yale University Press | isbn=0-300-09345-4}} |
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*{{cite book | author=[[Jeremy Rifkin|Rifkin Jeremy]] |title=The Hydrogen Economy: After Oil, Clean Energy From a Fuel-Cell-Driven Global Hydrogen Web |location=New York |publisher=J.P. Tarcher |year=2003 |isbn=0-7456-3042-1 |url=http://www.emagazine.com/january-february_2003/0103feat1.html }} |
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*{{cite book | author=[[Paul Roberts (author)|Roberts Paul]] | title=[[The End of Oil|The End of Oil. On the Edge of a Perilous New World]] | location=Boston | publisher=Houghton Mifflin | year=2004 | isbn=9780618239771}} |
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*{{cite book|author=[[Mike Ruppert|Ruppert Michael C]] |title=Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil |year=2005 |publisher=New Society |isbn=978-0865715400}} |
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*{{cite book|title=Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy |author=[[Matthew R. Simmons|Simmons Matthew R]] |isbn=0-471-73876-X |year=2005}} |
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*{{cite book |author=Shah Sonia | title=Crude, The Story of Oil | year=2004 | isbn=1-58322-625-7 | publisher=Seven Stories Press}} |
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*{{cite book |author=[[Julian Lincoln Simon|Simon Julian L]] | title=The Ultimate Resource | isbn=0-691-00381-5 | publisher=Princeton University Press|year=1998}} |
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*{{cite book |author=Smil Vaclav |title=Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties |isbn=0-262-19492-9|year=2005 |publisher=[[MIT Press]]}} |
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*{{cite book |author=Stansberry Mark A, Reimbold Jason |title=The Braking Point |publisher=Hawk Publishing |year=2008 |isbn=978-1-930709-67-6}} |
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*{{cite book |author=[[Peter Tertzakian|Tertzakian Peter]] |isbn=0-07-146874-9 |title=A Thousand Barrels a Second |publisher=McGraw-Hill|year=2006}} |
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*{{cite book |author=Yeomans Matthew |title=Oil, Anatomy of an Industry |year=2004 |isbn=1-56584-885-3 |New Press}} |
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*{{cite book |author=[[Daniel Yergin|Yergin Daniel]] |title=The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power |year=1993 |publisher=Free Press|isbn=0-671-79932-0}} |
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* ''No Blood for Oil!'' by George Caffentzis discusses peak oil and its relationship with current and past conflicts. [http://www.radicalpolytics.org/] |
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===Articles=== |
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*{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.jsg.utexas.edu/news/rels/062505a.html |
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|title=Of peaks and valleys: Doomsday energy scenarios burn away under scrutiny |
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|date=2005-06-25 |
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|author=Tinker Scott W |
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|publisher=[[Dallas Morning News]] |
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}} |
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*{{cite news |
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|url=http://money.cnn.com/2005/12/07/markets/peak_oil/index.htm |
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|title=Lawmakers: Will we run out of oil? |
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|date=2005-12-07 |
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|author=Benner Katie |
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|publisher=[[CNN]] |
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}} |
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*{{cite news |
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|url=http://money.cnn.com/2004/11/02/markets/peak_oil/ |
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|title=Oil: Is the end at hand? |
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|date=2004-11-03 |
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|author=Benner Katie |
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|publisher=[[CNN]] |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/pdf/research/sdp/Oilprices0806.pdf |
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|author=Mitchell John V |
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|title=A New Era for Oil Prices |
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|date=2006-08 |
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|format=PDF}} |
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*{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3233 |
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|title=The Future of Oil |
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|publisher=[[Foreign Policy]] |
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|date= |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
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|url=http://knowledge.allianz.com/en/globalissues/safety_security/energy_security/hirsch_peak_oil_production.html |
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|title=Peak Oil: "A Significant Period of Discomfort" |
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|author=Robert Hirsch |
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|publisher=Allianz Knowledge |
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|date=2008-06 |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
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|url=http://knowledge.allianz.com/en/globalissues/safety_security/energy_security/iea_energy_houssin.html |
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|title=Oil: “If You Invest More, You Find More” |
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|author=Didier Houssin, International Energy Agency |
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|publisher=Allianz Knowledge |
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|date=2008-05 |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
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|url=http://dieoff.org/page140.htm |
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|title=The End of Cheap Oil |
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|author=[[Colin Campbell|Campbell Colin]], [[Jean Laherrère|Laherrère Jean]] |
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|publisher=[[Scientific American]] |
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|date= |
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}} |
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*{{cite press release |
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|url=http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=137 |
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|publisher=[[International Energy Agency]] |
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|title= |
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|date= |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/05/02/issue/review_oil.asp |
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|title=The End of Oil? |
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|author=Williams Mark |
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|publisher=[[MIT Technology Review]] |
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|date= |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
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|url=http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/ |
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|title=The End of Cheap Oil |
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|author=Appenzeller Tim |
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|publisher=National Geographic |
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|date= |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.gasresources.net/Lynch(Hubbert-Deffeyes).htm |
|||
|title=The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources |
|||
|author=Lynch Michael C |
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|publisher= |
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|date= |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.energybulletin.net/node/347 |
|||
|title=Oil: Never Cry Wolf—Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over |
|||
|date=2004-05-20 |
|||
|author=Leonardo Maugeri |
|||
|publisher=[[Science (journal)]] |
|||
}} |
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*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://i-r-squared.blogspot.com/2006/04/peak-lite.html |
|||
|title=Peak Lite |
|||
|author=Rapier Robert |
|||
|date=2006-04 |
|||
}} |
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*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.worldoil.com/Magazine/MAGAZINE_DETAIL.asp?ART_ID=2378&MONTH_YEAR=Aug-2004 |
|||
|title=Oil shale back in the picture |
|||
|author=Snyder Robert E |
|||
|publisher=World Oil |
|||
|date=2004-08 |
|||
}} |
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*{{cite journal |
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|url=http://www.harpers.org/LastStopGas.html |
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|title=Last Stop Gas |
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|author=Roberts Paul |
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|journal=[[Harper's Magazine]] |
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|date=2004-08 |
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|pages=71–72 |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
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|url=http://environment.about.com/od/renewableenergy/a/oilfreesweden.htm |
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|title=Sweden aims to be world's first oil-free nation by 2020 |
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|author=Larry West |
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|date= |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
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|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4077802.stm |
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|title='Peak oil' enters mainstream debate |
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|publisher=[[BBC News]] |
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|author= |
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|date= |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.thepeakist.com/manifesto/ |
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|title=Between Peak Oil and Climate Change |
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|author=Welch Dan |
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|publisher=[[The Peakist]] |
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|date= |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.cleanhouston.org/energy/features/oilactions.htm |
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|title=Actions everyone can take to prepare for the possible end of an era |
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|author=Mosher Donna |
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|publisher=[[Citizens League for Environmental Action Now]] |
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|date= |
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}} |
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*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.oildecline.com/airways.pdf |
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|title=Peak oil and the collapse of commercial aviation |
|||
|author=Alex Kuhlman |
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|publisher=Airways |
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|date=2006-06 |
|||
|format=PDF}} |
|||
*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.energybulletin.net/4466.html |
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|title=A letter from oil exploration insider |
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|publisher=[[Energy Bulletin]] |
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|author=Anonymous |
|||
|date=2005-02-20 |
|||
}} |
|||
*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://culturalshifts.com/archives/205 |
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|title=Peak oil?: Oil supply and accumulation |
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|publisher=[[Cultural Shifts]] |
|||
|author=Cochrane Troy |
|||
|date=2008-01-04 |
|||
}} |
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*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.macleans.ca/business/economy/article.jsp?content=20080528_21002_21002 |
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|title=Life at $200 a barrel |
|||
|publisher=[[Maclean's]] |
|||
|author= Jaeon Kirby & Colin Campbell |
|||
|date=2008-05-30 |
|||
}} |
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===Reports, essays, and lectures=== |
|||
*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdf |
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|title=Crude Oil - The Supply Outlook |
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|publisher=Energy Watch Group |
|||
|date=2007-10-22 |
|||
|format=PDF}} |
|||
*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://publications.uu.se/abstract.xsql?dbid=7625 |
|||
|title=Doctoral thesis: Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production |
|||
|publisher=Uppsala University |
|||
|date=2007-03-30 |
|||
}} |
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*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.tekno.dk/subpage.php3?article=1025&toppic=kategori11&language=uk&category=11/ |
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|title=Review: Oil-based technology and economy - prospects for the future |
|||
|publisher=The Danish Board of Technology (Teknologirådet) |
|||
|date=2005-06-09 |
|||
}} |
|||
*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.thesharpener.net/?p=41 |
|||
|title=An Introduction to Peak Oil |
|||
|author=Jim Bliss |
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|publisher= |
|||
|date=2005-07-05 |
|||
}} |
|||
*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.portlandonline.com/osd/index.cfm?c=42894 |
|||
|title=Descending the Oil Peak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas |
|||
|author=City of Portland, Peak Oil Task Force |
|||
|publisher=City of Portland, Oregon, USA |
|||
|month=March | year=2007 |
|||
}} |
|||
* {{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.physics.otago.ac.nz/eman/The%20End%20of%20Oil%20essay%201.pdf |
|||
|format=PDF |
|||
|title=The End of Oil |
|||
|date=2005-07 |
|||
|publisher=[[University of Otago]] Department of Physics |
|||
}} |
|||
* {{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.cera.com/aspx/cda/public1/news/pressReleases/pressReleaseDetails.aspx?CID=8444 |
|||
|title=Peak Oil Theory – “World Running Out of Oil Soon” – Is Faulty; Could Distort Policy & Energy Debate |
|||
|publisher=[[CERA]] |
|||
|date=2006-11-14 |
|||
}} |
|||
* {{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.aph.gov.au/SENATE/committee/rrat_ctte/oil_supply/report/index.htm |
|||
|title=Australia’s future oil supply and alternative transport fuels |
|||
|publisher=Parliament of Australia - Senate |
|||
|date=2007-02-07 |
|||
}} |
|||
===Video Documentary=== |
|||
*[[Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash]] (2006) |
|||
*[[The End of Suburbia|The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream]] (2004) |
|||
*[[The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil]] (2006) |
|||
*[[What a Way to Go: Life at the End of Empire]] (2007) |
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==Notes== |
|||
<references group=note/> |
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==References== |
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{{reflist|3}} |
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==External links== |
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===Web sites=== |
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*[http://www.peakoil.net "Association for the Study of Peak Oil International"] |
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*[http://www.aspo-usa.org "ASPO-USA"] |
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*[http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100303_eating_oil.html "Eating Fossil Fuels"] FromTheWilderness.com |
|||
*[http://www.energybulletin.net "Energy Bulletin"] Peak Oil related articles |
|||
*[http://www.globaloilwatch.com "Global Oil Watch"] - Extensive peak oil library |
|||
*[http://mazamascience.com/OilExport/ "Mazama Science"] - A visual review of production and consumption trends for individual nations; data from the 2008 BP Statistical Review. |
|||
*[http://www.peakoilfordummies.com "Peak Oil For Dummies"] - concise quotes from renowned politicians, oil executives, and analysts |
|||
*[http://www.oilcareer.com/the-oil-age-poster2.htm "The Oil Age"] - poster showing petroleum data in relation to peak oil |
|||
* [http://peakoilstories.com/peak_oil_countdown_clock.htm Peak Oil countdown clock and charts] |
|||
*[http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html "Petroleum Data"] U.S. Energy Information Agency |
|||
*[http://peak-oil-crisis.org/ "Peak Oil Crisis News"] - Automatically updated news from several news websites plus a real time crude price |
|||
* [http://postcarboncities.net/blog/daniel-lerch/what-role-schools-preparing-peak-oil What role for schools in preparing for peak oil?] |
|||
===Responses to the Peak Oil Crisis=== |
|||
*[http://www.pickensplan.com/ Pickens Plan] - A two-part solution to the Peak Oil crisis involving wind and natural gas. |
|||
===Online audio, podcasts=== |
|||
*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.archive.org/details/holmgren_energy_descent |
|||
|title=David Holmgren talks about Peak Oil and Permaculture |
|||
|author=David Holmgren |
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|date=2004-07-28 |
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|publisher=[[archive.org]] |
|||
}} |
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===Online videos=== |
|||
*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://www.energybulletin.net/5080.html |
|||
|title=Rep. Prof. Roscoe Bartlett's to U.S. House of Representatives |
|||
|publisher=[[CSPAN]] |
|||
|date=2005-04-05 |
|||
}} |
|||
*{{cite web |
|||
|url=http://tv.oneworld.net/article/view/152547 |
|||
|title=Video interview with Richard Heinberg |
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|publisher=OneWorldTV |
|||
}} |
|||
*{{cite web |
|||
|* [http://www.energychallenge.tv/ EnergyChallenge TV - Peak Oil Videos, Interviews, Presentations, and Media Reports] |
|||
|url=http://www.energychallenge.tv/ |
|||
|title=EnergyChallenge TV - Peak Oil Video and Audio |
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|publisher=[[Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas|ASPO-USA]] |
|||
|date=2007-02-12 |
|||
}} |
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[[Category:Economic theories]] |
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[[Category:Futurology]] |
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[[Category:Peak oil| ]] |
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[[Category:Petroleum politics]] |
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[[Category:Sustainability]] |
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[[Category:Environmental economics]] |
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[[cs:Ropný vrchol]] |
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[[de:Globales Ölfördermaximum]] |
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[[fr:Pic pétrolier]] |
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[[ga:Buaic na hola]] |
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[[is:Olíutindur]] |
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[[he:שיא תפוקת הנפט]] |
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[[hu:Olajhozam-csúcs]] |
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[[ja:石油ピーク]] |
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[[no:Peak oil]] |
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[[nn:Peak oil]] |
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[[pt:Pico do Petróleo]] |
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[[sk:Ropný vrchol]] |
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[[fi:Öljyhuippu]] |
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[[zh:哈伯特顶点]] |
Revision as of 02:05, 6 November 2008
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8f/Hubbert_peak_oil_plot.svg/250px-Hubbert_peak_oil_plot.svg.png)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f2/PU200611_Fig1.png/250px-PU200611_Fig1.png)
Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached, after which the rate of production enters terminal decline. The concept is based on the observed production rates of individual oil wells, and the combined production rate of a field of related oil wells. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time appears to grow exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines, sometimes rapidly, until the field is depleted. It has been shown to be applicable to the sum of a nation’s domestic production rate, and is similarly applied to the global rate of petroleum production. It is important to note that peak oil is not about running out of oil, but the peaking and subsequent decline of the production rate of oil.
M. King Hubbert created and first used this theory in 1956 to accurately predict that United States oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970.[1] His logistic model, now called Hubbert peak theory, and its variants have been shown to be descriptive with reasonable accuracy of the peak and decline of production from oil wells, fields, regions, and countries,[2] and has also proved useful in other limited-resource production-domains. According to the Hubbert model, the production rate of a limited resource will follow a roughly symmetrical bell-shaped curve based on the limits of exploitability and market pressures. Various modified versions of his original logistic model are used, using more complex functions to allow for real world factors. While each version is applied to a specific domain, the central features of the Hubbert curve (that production stops rising, flattens and then declines) remain unchanged, albeit with different profiles.
Some observers, such as petroleum industry experts Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Matthew Simmons, believe the high dependence of most modern industrial transport, agricultural and industrial systems on the relative low cost and high availability of oil will cause the post-peak production decline and possible severe increases in the price of oil to have negative implications for the global economy. Predictions vary greatly as to what exactly these negative effects would be.
If political and economic changes only occur in reaction to high prices and shortages rather than in reaction to the threat of a peak, then the degree of economic damage to importing countries will largely depend on how rapidly oil imports decline post-peak. According to the Export Land Model, oil exports drop much more quickly than production drops due to domestic consumption increases in exporting countries. Supply shortfalls would cause extreme price inflation, unless demand is mitigated with planned conservation measures and use of alternatives.[3]
Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations. These models show the price of oil at first escalating and then retreating as other types of fuel and energy sources are used.[4]
Pessimistic predictions of future oil production operate on the thesis that either the peak has already occurred,[5][6][7] we are on the cusp of the peak, or that it will occur shortly[8] and, as proactive mitigation may no longer be an option, predict a global depression, perhaps even initiating a chain reaction of the various feedback mechanisms in the global market which might stimulate a collapse of global industrial civilization, potentially leading to large population declines within a short period. Throughout the first two quarters of 2008, there were signs that a possible US recession was being made worse by a series of record oil prices.[9][citation needed]
Demand for oil
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9f/EIA_petroleum_consumption_of_selected_nations_1960-2005.png/300px-EIA_petroleum_consumption_of_selected_nations_1960-2005.png)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/00/Oil_consumption_per_day_by_region_from_1980_to_2006.svg/220px-Oil_consumption_per_day_by_region_from_1980_to_2006.svg.png)
The demand side of Peak oil is concerned with the consumption over time, and the growth of this demand. World crude oil demand grew an average of 1.76% per year from 1994 to 2006, with a high of 3.4% in 2003-2004. World demand for oil is projected to increase 37% over 2006 levels by 2030 (118 million barrels per day (18.8×10 6 m3/d) from 86 million barrels (13.7×10 6 m3)), due in large part to increases in demand from the transportation sector.[10][11]
Energy demand is distributed amongst four broad sectors: transportation, residential, commercial, and industrial.[12][13] In terms of oil use, transportation is the largest sector and the one that has seen the largest growth in demand in recent decades. This growth has largely come from new demand for personal-use vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.[14] This sector also has the highest consumption rates, accounting for approximately 68.9% of the oil used in the United States in 2006,[15] and 55% of oil use worldwide as documented in the Hirsch report. Transportation is therefore of particular interest to those seeking to mitigate the effects of Peak oil.
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c5/US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.png/220px-US_Oil_Production_and_Imports_1920_to_2005.png)
Although demand growth is highest in the developing world,[16] the United States is the world's largest consumer of petroleum. Between 1995 and 2005, US consumption grew from 17.7 million barrels a day to 20.7 million barrels a day, a 3 million barrel a day increase. China, by comparison, increased consumption from 3.4 million barrels a day to 7 million barrels a day, an increase of 3.6 million barrels a day, in the same time frame.[17]
As countries develop, industry, rapid urbanization and higher living standards drive up energy use, most often of oil. Thriving economies such as China and India are quickly becoming large oil consumers.[18] China has seen oil consumption grow by 8% yearly since 2002, doubling from 1996-2006,[16] In 2008, auto sales in China were expected to grow by as much as 15-20 percent, resulting in part from economic growth rates of over 10 percent for 5 years in a row.[19] Although swift continued growth in China is often predicted, others predict that China's export dominated economy will not continue such growth trends due to wage and price inflation and reduced demand from the US.[20] India's oil imports are expected to more than triple from 2005 levels by 2020, rising to 5 million barrels per day (790×10 3 m3/d).[21]
Population
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/11/World_population_history.svg/220px-World_population_history.svg.png)
Another significant factor on petroleum demand has been human population growth. Oil production per capita peaked in the 1970s.[22] The world’s population in 2030 is expected to be double that of 1980.[23] Author Matt Savinar predicts that oil production in 2030 will have declined back to 1980 levels as worldwide demand for oil significantly out-paces production.[24][25] Physicist Albert Bartlett claims that the rate of oil production per capita is falling, and that the decline has gone undiscussed because a politically incorrect form of population control may be implied by mitigation.[26] Oil production per capita has declined from 5.26 barrels per year (0.836 m3/a) in 1980 to 4.44 barrels per year (0.706 m3/a) in 1993,[27][23] but then increased to 4.79 barrels per year (0.762 m3/a) in 2005.[27][23] In 2006, the world oil production took a downturn from 84.631 to 84.597 million barrels per day (13.4553×10 6 to 13.4498×10 6 m3/d) although population has continued to increase. This has caused the oil production per capita to drop again to 4.73 barrels per year (0.752 m3/a).[27][23]
One factor that has so far helped ameliorate the effect of population growth on demand is the decline of population growth rate since the 1970s, although this is offset to a degree by increasing average longevity in developed nations. In 1970, the population grew at 2.1%. By 2007, the growth rate had declined to 1.167%.[28] However, oil production is still outpacing population growth to meet demand. World population grew by 6.2% from 6.07 billion in 2000 to 6.45 billion in 2005,[23] whereas according to BP, global oil production during that same period increased from 74.9 to 81.1 million barrels (11.91×10 6 to 12.89×10 6 m3), or by 8.2%.[29] or according to EIA, from 77.762 to 84.631 million barrels (12.3632×10 6 to 13.4553×10 6 m3), or by 8.8%.[27]
Agriculture and population limits
Because supplies of oil and gas are essential to modern agriculture techniques, a fall in global oil supplies could cause spiking food prices and unprecedented famine in the coming decades.[30][note 1] Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer contends that current population levels are unsustainable, and that to achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster the United States population would have to be reduced by at least one-third, and world population by two-thirds.[31] The largest consumer of fossil fuels in modern agriculture is fertilizer production via the Haber process, which is essential to high perennial corn yields. If a sustainable non-petroleum source of electricity is developed, this process can be accomplished without fossil fuels using methods such as electrolysis.
Petroleum Supply
Discoveries
All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas.
— William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman, December 2005, [32]
In order to pump oil, it first needs to be discovered. The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1965[33] at around 55 billion barrels(Gb)/year.[34] The rate of oil barrels of oil discovered has been falling steadily since. Less than 10 Gb/yr of oil were discovered every year between 2002-2007.[35]
Reserves
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Hubbert_world_2004.png/300px-Hubbert_world_2004.png)
Conventional crude oil reserves include all crude oil that is technically possible to produce from reservoirs through a well bore, using primary, secondary, improved, enhanced, or tertiary methods. This does not include liquids extracted from mined solids or gasses (tar sands, oil shales, gas-to-liquid processes, or coal-to-liquid processes).[36]
Oil reserves are classified as proven, probable and possible. Proven reserves are generally intended to have at least 90% or 95% certainty of containing the amount specified. Probable Reserves have an intended probability of 50%, and the Possible Reserves an intended probability of 5% or 10%.[37] Current technology is capable of extracting about 40% of the oil from most wells. Some speculate that future technology will make further extraction possible,[38] but to some, this future technology is already considered in Proven and Probable reserve numbers.
In many major producing countries, the majority of reserves claims have not been subject to outside audit or examination. Most of the easy-to-extract oil has been found.[32] Recent price increases have led to oil exploration in areas where extraction is much more expensive, such as in extremely deep wells, extreme downhole temperatures, and environmentally sensitive areas or where high technology will be required to extract the oil. A lower rate of discoveries per explorations has led to a shortage of drilling rigs, increases in steel prices, and overall increases in costs due to complexity.[39][40]
Peak reserves
Reserves in effect peaked in 1980, when production first surpassed new discoveries, though creative methods of recalculating reserves has made this difficult to establish exactly.[6]
Concerns over stated reserves
World reserves are confused and in fact inflated. Many of the so-called reserves are in fact resources. They’re not delineated, they’re not accessible, they’re not available for production
— Sadad I. Al Husseini, former VP of Aramco, October 2007.
By Al-Husseini's estimate, 300 billion (64×109 m3) of the world’s 1,200 billion barrels (190×10 9 m3) of proved reserves should be recategorized as speculative resources.[7]
One difficulty in forecasting the date of peak oil is the opacity surrounding the oil reserves classified as 'proven'. Many worrying signs concerning the depletion of 'proven reserves' have emerged in recent years.[41][42] This was best exemplified by the 2004 scandal surrounding the 'evaporation' of 20% of Shell's reserves.[43]
For the most part, 'proven reserves' are stated by the oil companies, the producer states and the consumer states. All three have reasons to overstate their proven reserves:
- Oil companies may look to increase their potential worth.
- Producer countries are bestowed a stronger international stature
- Governments of consumer countries may seek a means to foster sentiments of security and stability within their economies and among consumers.
The Energy Watch Group (EWG) 2007 report shows total world Proved (P95) plus Probable (P50) reserves to be between 854 and 1,255 Gb (30 to 40 years of supply if demand growth were to stop immediately). Major discrepancies arise from accuracy issues with OPEC's self-reported numbers. Besides the possibility that these nations have overstated their reserves for political reasons (during periods of no substantial discoveries), over 70 nations also follow a practice of not reducing their reserves to account for yearly production. 1,255 Gb is therefore a best-case scenario.[6] Analysts have suggested that OPEC member nations have economic incentives to exaggerate their reserves, as the OPEC quota system allows greater output for countries with greater reserves.[38]
The following graph shows refutable jumps in stated reserves without associated discoveries, as well as the lack of depletion despite yearly production:
Kuwait, for example, was reported by a January 2006 issue of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly to have only 48 Gb in reserve, of which only 24 were "fully proven." This report was based on "leaks of confidential documents" from Kuwait, and has not been formally denied by the Kuwaiti authorities. This leaked document dates back from 2001[44] so the figure includes oil that have been produced since 2001, roughly 5-6 billion barrels,[17] but excludes revisions or discoveries made since then. Additionally, the reported 1.5 Gb of oil burned off by Iraqi soldiers in the first Gulf War[45] are conspicuously missing from Kuwait's figures.
On the other hand investigative journalist Greg Palast has argued that oil companies have an interest in making oil look more rare than it is in order to justify higher prices.[46] Other analysts in 2003 argued that oil producing countries understated the extent of their reserves in order to drive up the price of oil.[47]
Unconventional sources
Unconventional sources, such as heavy crude oil, tar sands, and oil shale are not counted as part of oil reserves. However, oil companies can book them as proven reserves after opening a strip mine or thermal facility for extraction. Oil industry sources such as Rigzone have stated that these unconventional sources are not as efficient to produce, however, requiring extra energy to refine, resulting in higher production costs and up to three times more greenhouse gas emissions per barrel (or barrel equivalent).[48] While the energy used, resources needed, and environmental effects of extracting unconventional sources has traditionally been prohibitively high, the three major unconventional oil sources being considered for large scale production are the extra heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt of Venezuela,[49] the Athabasca oil sands in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin,[50] and the oil shales of the Green River Formation in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming in the United States.[51][52] Chuck Masters of the USGS estimates that, "Taken together, these resource occurrences, in the Western Hemisphere, are approximately equal to the Identified Reserves of conventional crude oil accredited to the Middle East."[53] Authorities familiar with the resources believe that the world's ultimate reserves of non-conventional oil are several times as large as those of conventional oil and will be highly profitable for companies as a result of higher prices in the 21st century.[54]
Despite the large quantities of oil available in non-conventional sources, Matthew Simmons argues that limitations on production prevent them from becoming an effective substitute for conventional crude oil. Simmons states that "these are high energy intensity projects that can never reach high volumes" to offset significant losses from other sources.[56] Another study claims that even under highly optimistic assumptions, "Canada's oil sands will not prevent peak oil," although production could reach 5 million bbl/day by 2030 in a "crash program" development effort.[57] Moreover, oil extracted from these sources typically contains contaminants such as sulfur, heavy metals and carbon that are energy-intensive to extract and leave highly toxic tailings.[58] The same applies to much of the Middle East's undeveloped conventional oil reserves, much of which is heavy, viscous and contaminated with sulfur and metals to the point of being unusable.[59] However, recent high oil prices make these sources more financially appealing.[38] A study by Wood Mackenzie suggests that within 15 years all the world’s extra oil supply will likely come from unconventional sources.[60]
A 2003 article in Discover magazine claimed that thermal depolymerization could be used to manufacture oil indefinitely, out of garbage, sewage, and agricultural waste. The article claimed that the cost of the process was $15 per barrel.[61] A follow-up article in 2006 stated that the cost was actually $80 per barrel because the feedstock which had previously been considered as hazardous waste now had market value.[62]
Production
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d6/MEESchart.png/220px-MEESchart.png)
The point in time when peak global oil production occurs is the measure which defines Peak oil. This is because production capacity is the main limitation of supply. Therefore, when production decreases, it becomes the main bottleneck to the petroleum supply/demand equation.
World wide oil discoveries have been less than annual production since 1980.[6] According to several sources, worldwide production is past or near its maximum.[5][6] [7][8]
World oil production growth trends were flat from 2005 to 2008. According to a January 2007 International Energy Agency report, global supply (which includes biofuels, non-crude sources of petroleum, and use of strategic oil reserves, in addition to crude production) averaged 85.24 million barrels per day (13.552×10 6 m3/d) in 2006, up 0.76 million barrels per day (121×10 3 m3/d) (0.9%), from 2005.[63] Average yearly gains in global supply from 1987 to 2005 were 1.2 million barrels per day (190×10 3 m3/d) (1.7%).[63]
The IEA's March 2008 Oil Market report showed global supply to be 87.5 mb/d, compared to 84.3 mb/d in July 2007, a 3.8% increase on that interval. The great bulk of the increase came in the non-OPEC sector, which now makes up 65% of global production.
Of the largest 21 fields, at least 9 are in decline.[64] In April, 2006, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8% per year (with a national composite decline of about 2%).[65]
This information has been used to argue that Ghawar, which is the largest oil field in the world and responsible for approximately half of Saudi Arabia's oil production over the last 50 years, has peaked.[66][38] The world's second largest oil field, the Burgan field in Kuwait, entered decline in November, 2005.[67] According to a study of the largest 811 oilfields conducted in early 2008 by CERA, the average rate of field decline is 4.5% per year. There are also projects projected to begin production within the next decade which are hoped to offset these declines. The CERA report projects 2017 production level of over 100mbpd.[68] Kjell Aleklett of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas agrees with their decline rates, but considers the rate of new fields coming online -- 100% of all projects in development, but with 30% of them experiencing delays, plus a mix of new small fields and field expansions -- overly optimistic.[69]
Mexico announced that its giant Cantarell Field entered depletion in March, 2006,[70] due to past overproduction. In 2000, PEMEX built the largest nitrogen plant in the world in an attempt to maintain production through nitrogen injection into the formation,[71] but by 2006, Cantarell was declining at a rate of 13% per year.[72]
OPEC had vowed in 2000 to maintain a production level sufficient to keep oil prices between $22–28 per barrel, but did not prove possible. In its 2007 annual report, OPEC projected that it could maintain a production level which would stabilize the price of oil at around $50–60 per barrel until 2030.[73] On November 18, 2007, with oil above $98 a barrel, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, a long-time advocate of stabilized oil prices, announced that his country would not increase production in order to lower prices.[74] Saudi Arabia's inability, as the world's largest supplier, to stabilize prices through increased production during that period suggests that no nation or organization had the spare production capacity to lower oil prices. The implication is that those major suppliers who had not yet peaked were operating at or near full capacity.[38]
Commentators have pointed to the Jack 2 deep water test well in the Gulf of Mexico, announced September 5, 2006,[75] as evidence that there is no imminent peak in global oil production. According to one estimate, the field could account for up to 11% of US production within seven years.[76] However, even though oil discoveries are expected after the peak oil of production is reached,[77] the new reserves of oil will be harder to find and extract. The Jack 2 field, for instance, is more than 20,000 feet (6,100 m) under the sea floor in 7,000 feet (2,100 m) of water, requiring 8.5 kilometers of pipe to reach. Additionally, even the maximum estimate of 15 billion barrels (2.4×10 9 m3) represents slightly less than 2 years of U.S. consumption at present levels.[78]
The increasing investment in harder-to-reach oil is a sign of oil companies' belief in the end of easy oil.[32] In addition, while it is widely believed that increased oil prices spur an increase in production, an increasing number of oil industry insiders are now coming to believe that even with higher prices, oil production is unlikely to increase significantly beyond its current level. Among the reasons cited are both geological factors as well as "above ground" factors that are likely to see oil production plateau near its current level.[79]
Because world population grew faster than oil production, production per capita peaked in 1979 (preceded by a plateau during the period of 1973-1979).[22]
Control over supply
Entities such as governments or cartels can artificially reduce supply to the world market by limiting access to the supply through nationalizing oil, cutting back on production, limiting drilling rights, imposing taxes, etc. International sanctions, corruption, and military conflicts can also reduce supply.
Nationalization of oil supplies
Another factor affecting global oil supply is the nationalization of oil reserves by producing nations. The nationalization of oil occurs as countries begin to deprivatize oil production and withhold exports. Kate Dourian, Platts' Middle East editor, points out that while estimates of oil reserves may vary, politics have now entered the equation of oil supply. "Some countries are becoming off limits. Major oil companies operating in Venezuela find themselves in a difficult position because of the growing nationalization of that resource. These countries are now reluctant to share their reserves."[80]
According to consulting firm PFC Energy, only 7% of the world's estimated oil and gas reserves are in countries that allow companies like ExxonMobil free rein. Fully 65% are in the hands of state-owned companies such as Saudi Aramco, with the rest in countries such as Russia and Venezuela, where access by Western companies is difficult. The PFC study implies political factors are limiting capacity increases in Mexico, Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Russia. Saudi Arabia is also limiting capacity expansion, but because of a self-imposed cap, unlike the other countries.[81] As a result of not having access to countries amenable to oil exploration, ExxonMobil is not making nearly the investment in finding new oil that it did in 1981.[82]
Monopoly/Cartel influence on supply
OPEC is an alliance between 12 diverse oil producing countries (Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Gabon, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates) to control the supply of oil. OPEC's power was consolidated as various countries nationalized their oil holdings, and wrested decision-making away from the "Seven Sisters," (Anglo-Iranian, Socony-Vacuum, Royal Dutch Shell, Gulf, Esso, Texaco, and Calso.) and created their own oil companies to control the oil. OPEC tries to influence prices by restricting production. It does this by allocating each member country a quota for production. All 12 members agree to keep prices high by producing at lower levels than they otherwise would. There is no way to verify adherence to the quota, so every member faces the same incentive to ‘cheat’ the cartel.[83] Washington kept the oil flowing and gained favorable OPEC policies mainly by arming, and propping up Saudi regimes. According to some, the purpose for the second Iraq war is to break the back of OPEC and return control of the oil fields to western oil companies.[84]
Alternately, commodities trader Raymond Learsy, author of Over a Barrel: Breaking the Middle East Oil Cartel, contends that OPEC has trained consumers to believe that oil is a much more finite resource than it is. To back his argument, he points to past false alarms and apparent collaboration.[47] He also believes that Peak Oil analysts are conspiring with OPEC and the oil companies to create a "fabricated drama of peak oil" in order to drive up oil prices and profits. It is worth noting oil had risen to a little over $30/barrel at that time. A counter-argument was given in the Huffington Post after he and Steve Andrews, co-founder of ASPO, debated on CNBC in June 2007.[85]
Timing of peak oil
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Hubbert_US_high.svg/200px-Hubbert_US_high.svg.png)
M. King Hubbert initially predicted in 1974 that peak oil would occur in 1995 "if current trends continue."[86] However, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, global oil consumption actually dropped (due to the shift to energy-efficient cars,[87] the shift to electricity and natural gas for heating,[88] and other factors), then rebounded to a lower level of growth in the mid 1980s. Thus oil production did not peak in 1995, and has climbed to more than double the rate initially projected. This underscores the fact that the only reliable way to identify the timing of peak oil will be in retrospect. However, predictions have been refined through the years as up-to-date information becomes more readily available, such as new reserve growth data.[89] Predictions of the timing of peak oil include the possibilities that it has recently occurred, that it will occur shortly, or that a plateau of oil production will sustain supply for up to 100 years. None of these predictions dispute the peaking of oil production, but disagree only on when it will occur.
According to Mathew Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, "...peaking is one of these fuzzy events that you only know clearly when you see it through a rear view mirror, and by then an alternate resolution is generally too late."[90]
2005 John Tierney of the NYT agreed with Matthew Simmons about a bet (in the meanwhile about 10.000 $) concering 2010 oil prices. Simmons assumed 200 $ per barrel, Tierney believes bull markets in resource trading never stand for long. Julian Lincoln Simon widow shared in the bet[91]
Pessimistic predictions of future oil production
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah told his subjects in 1998, "The oil boom is over and will not return... All of us must get used to a different lifestyle." Since then he has implemented a series of corruption reforms and government programs intended to lower Saudi Arabia's dependence on oil revenues. The royal family was put on notice to end its history of excess and new industries were created to diversify the national economy.[92]
The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) predicted in their January 2008 newsletter that the peak in all oil (including non-conventional sources), would occur in 2010. This is earlier than the July 2007 newsletter prediction of 2011.[93] ASPO Ireland in its May 2008 newsletter, number 89, revised its depletion model and advanced the date of the peak of overall liquids from 2010 to 2007.[94]
Kenneth S. Deffeyes argued at one point that world oil production peaked on December 16, 2005.[5]
Sadad Al Husseini, former head of Saudi Aramco's production and exploration, stated in an October 29, 2007 interview that oil production had likely already reached its peak in 2006,[7] and that assumptions by the IEA and EIA of production increases by OPEC to over 45 MB/day are "quite unrealistic."[7]
Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens stated in 2005 that worldwide conventional oil production was very close to peaking.[95] On June 17, 2008, in testimony before the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Pickens stated that "I do believe you have peaked out at 85 million barrels a day globally,".[96] Data from the US Energy Information Administration show that world production leveled out in 2004, and reached a peak in the third quarter of 2006, [citation needed] and an October 2007 retrospective report by the Energy Watch Group concluded that this was the peak of conventional oil production.[6]
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Hubbert_world_2004.png/220px-Hubbert_world_2004.png)
The July 2007 IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report projected a 2% non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2007-2009, reaching 51.0 mb/d in 2008, receding thereafter as the slate of verifiable investment projects diminishes. They refer to this decline as a plateau. The report expects only a small amount of supply growth from OPEC producers, with 70% of the increase coming from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Angola as security and investment issues continue to impinge on oil exports from Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela.[97]
In October 2007, the Energy Watch Group, a German research group founded by MP Hans-Josef Fell, released a report claiming that oil production peaked in 2006 and will decline by several percent annually. The authors predict negative economic effects and social unrest as a result.[98][6] They state that the IEA production plateau prediction uses purely economic models which rely on an ability to raise production and discovery rates at will.[6]
Matthew Simmons, Chairman of Simmons & Company International, said on October 26, 2006 that global oil production may have peaked in December 2005, though he cautions that further monitoring of production is required to determine if a peak has actually occurred.[99]
Optimistic predictions of future oil production
Non-'peakists' can be divided into several different categories based on their specific criticism of Peak Oil. Some claim that any peak will not come soon or have a dramatic effect on the world economies. Others claim we will not reach a peak for technological reasons, while still others claim our oil reserves are regenerated quickly over time.
Plateau oil
CERA, which counts unconventional sources in reserves while discounting EROEI, believes that global production will eventually follow an “undulating plateau” for one or more decades before declining slowly.[4] In 2005 the group had predicted that "petroleum supplies will be expanding faster than demand over the next five years."[100]
In 2007, The Wall Street Journal reported that "a growing number of oil-industry chieftains" believed that oil production would soon reach a ceiling for a variety of reasons, and plateau at that level for some time. Several chief executives stated that projections of over 100 million barrels of production per day are unrealistic, contradicting the projections of the International Energy Agency and US Energy Information Administration.[101]
Energy Information Administration and USGS 2000 reports
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects world consumption of oil to increase to 98.3 million barrels per day (15.63×10 6 m3/d) in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day (18.8×10 6 m3/d) in 2030.[102] This would require a more than 35% increase in world oil production by 2030. A 2004 paper by the Energy Information Administration based on data collected in 2000 disagrees with Hubbert peak theory on several points:[14]
- Explicitly incorporates demand into model as well as supply
- Does not assume pre/post-peak symmetry of production levels
- Models pre- and post-peak production with different functions (exponential growth and constant reserves-to-production ratio, respectively)
- Assumes reserve growth, including via technological advancement and exploitation of small reservoirs
The EIA estimates of future oil supply are countered by Sadad Al Husseini, retired VP Exploration of Aramco, who calls it a 'dangerous over-estimate'.[103] Husseini also points out that population growth and the emergence of China and India means oil prices are now going to be structurally higher than they have been.
Colin Campbell argues that the 2000 USGS estimates is a methodologically flawed study that has done incalculable damage by misleading international agencies and governments. Campbell dismisses the notion that the world can seamlessly move to more difficult and expensive sources of oil and gas when the need arises. He argues that oil is in profitable abundance or not there at all, due ultimately to the fact that it is a liquid concentrated by nature in a few places having the right geology. Campbell believes OPEC countries raised their reserves to get higher oil quotas and to avoid internal critique. He also points out that the USGS failed to extrapolate past discovery trends in the world’s mature basins.[104]
No Peak Oil
Abdullah S. Jum'ah, President, Director and CEO of Saudi Aramco states that the world has adequate reserves of conventional and nonconventional oil sources that will last for more than a century.[105][106] As recently as 2008 he pronounced "We have grossly underestimated mankind’s ability to find new reserves of petroleum, as well as our capacity to raise recovery rates and tap fields once thought inaccessible or impossible to produce.” Jum’ah believes that in-place conventional and non-conventional liquid resources may ultimately total between 13 trillion and 16 trillion barrels and that only a small fraction (1.1 trillion) has been extracted to date.[107]
I do not believe the world has to worry about ‘peak oil’ for a very long time.
— Abdullah S. Jum'ah, 2008-01[107]
Some commentators, such as economist Michael Lynch, say that the Hubbert Peak theory is flawed and that there is no imminent peak in oil production; a view sometimes referred to as "cornucopian" by believers in Hubbert Peak Theory. Lynch argued in 2004 that production is determined by demand as well as geology, and that fluctuations in oil supply are due to political and economic effects as well as the physical processes of exploration, discovery and production.[108] This idea is echoed by Jad Mouawad, who explains that as oil prices rise, new extraction technologies become viable, thus expanding the total recoverable oil reserves. This, according to Mouwad, is one explanation of the changes in peak production estimates.[109]
Leonardo Maugeri, CEO of ENI dismissed the peak oil thesis in an peer reviewed article in Science (journal) as "the current model of oil doomsters" based on several flawed assumptions. According to him, neither the geological structure of earth is as thoroughly explored as necessary nor necessary global production, discovery trend and geological data are available globally. Maugeri refers to predictions based on the Hubbert Model which subsequently had to be revised in the last 20 years. He concludes the worst effect of the Peak Oil thesis and its predecessors as regurlarly recurring oil panicking which lead e.g. western political circles toward oil imperialism. According Maugeri, catastrophic views fail to take into account a complex reality allowing reliance on abundant oil supplies for years to come[110].
Abiogenesis
The theory that petroleum is derived from biogenic processes is held by the overwhelming majority of petroleum geologists. Abiogenic theorists however, such as the late professor of astronomy Thomas Gold at Cornell University, assert that the source of oil may not be a limited supply of “fossil fuels”, but instead an abiotic process. They theorize that if abiogenic petroleum sources are found to be abundant, Earth would contain vast reserves of untapped petroleum.[111] A February 2008 article on abiogenic low-carbon hydrocarbon production using data from experiments at Lost City reported how the abiotic synthesis of C1 to C4 hydrocarbons (though not petroleum) may occur in the presence of ultramafic rocks, water, and moderate amounts of heat.[112]
The most important counter arguments to the abiotic theory involve various biomarkers which have been found in all samples of all the oil and gas accumulations found to date. The prevailing view among geologists and petroleum engineers is that this evidence "provides irrefutable proof that 99.99999% of all the oil and gas accumulations found up to now in the planet earth have a biologic origin." In this process, oil is generated from kerogen by pyrolysis.[113] While, Thomas Gold hypothesized that bacteria exist deep within the Earth's crust, and are the source of the biomarkers,[114] these bacteria have not been found, the natural abiogenic formation of high-carbon hydrocarbons has not been demonstrated, and evidence for the biotic origin of petroleum is abundant.
Possible effects and consequences of Peak Oil
- For information on the timing of peak oil, see Predicting the timing of peak oil
The widespread use of fossil fuels has been one of the most important stimuli of economic growth and prosperity since the industrial revolution, allowing humans to participate in takedown, or the consumption of energy at a greater rate than it is being replaced. Some believe that when oil production decreases, human culture and modern technological society will be forced to change drastically. The impact of Peak oil will depend heavily on the rate of decline and the development and adoption of effective alternatives. If alternatives are not forthcoming, the products produced with oil (including fertilizers, detergents, solvents, adhesives, and most plastics) would become scarce and expensive. At the very least this could lower living standards in developed and developing countries alike, and in the worst case lead to worldwide economic collapse. With increased tension between countries over dwindling oil supplies, political situations may change dramatically and inequalities between countries and regions may become exacerbated.
The Hirsch Report
In 2005, the US Department of Energy published a report titled Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management.[115] Known as the Hirsch report, it stated, "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking."
Conclusions from the Hirsch Report and three scenarios
- World oil peaking is going to happen, and it will be abrupt and revolutionary.
- Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly those most dependent on oil.
- Oil peaking presents a unique challenge (“it will be abrupt and revolutionary”).
- The problem is liquid fuels (growth in demand mainly from the transportation sector).
- Mitigation efforts will require substantial time.
- 20 years is required to transition without substantial impacts
- A 10 year rush transition with moderate impacts is possible with extraordinary efforts from governments, industry, and consumers
- Late initiation of mitigation may result in severe consequences.
- Both supply and demand will require attention.
- It is a matter of risk management (mitigating action must come before the peak).
- Government intervention will be required.
- Economic upheaval is not inevitable (“given enough lead-time, the problems can be solved with existing technologies.”)
- More information is needed to more precisely determine the peak time frame.
Possible Scenarios:
- Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades.
- Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.
- Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period.
Other predictions
Agricultural effects
Transportation and housing
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/ff/Cincinnati-suburbs-tract-housing.jpg/250px-Cincinnati-suburbs-tract-housing.jpg)
A majority of Americans live in suburbs, a type of low-density settlement designed around universal personal automobile use. Commentators such as James Howard Kunstler argue that because over ninety percent of transportation in the United States relies on oil, the suburbs' reliance on the automobile is an unsustainable living arrangement. Peak oil would leave many Americans unable to afford petroleum based fuel for their cars, and force them to move to higher density areas, where walking and public transportation are more viable options. Suburbia may become the "slums of the future."[116][117] The issues of petroleum supply and demand is also a concern for growing cities in developing countries (were urban areas are expected to absorb most of the worlds projected 2.3 billion population increase by 2050). Stressing the energy component of future development plans is seen as an important goal.[118]
Methods which have been suggested for mitigating the urban and suburban issues surrounding Peak oil include non-petroleum vehicles, transit-oriented development, new trains, new pedestrianism, smart growth, shared space, and New Urbanism.
Mitigation
To avoid the serious social and economic implications a global decline in oil production could entail, the Hirsch report emphasized the need to find alternatives at least 10-20 years before the peak, and to phase out the use of petroleum over that time,[119] similar to the plan Sweden announced in 2005. Such mitigation could include energy conservation, fuel substitution, and the use of non-conventional oil. Because mitigation can reduce the consumption of traditional petroleum sources, it can also affect the timing of peak oil and the shape of the Hubbert curve.
Positive aspects of peak oil
There are those who believe that peak oil should be viewed as a positive event.[120] Many of these critics reason that if the price of oil rises high enough, the use of alternative clean fuels could help control the pollution of fossil fuel use as well as mitigate global warming.[121] Others, in particular anarcho-primitivists, are hopeful that it will cause or contribute to the collapse of civilization.[122]
Peak oil for individual nations
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/58/Hubbert_US_high.svg/200px-Hubbert_US_high.svg.png)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b8/Canadian_Oil_Production_1960_to_2020.png/200px-Canadian_Oil_Production_1960_to_2020.png)
Peak Oil as a concept applies globally, but it is based on the summation of individual nations experiencing peak oil. In State of the World 2005, Worldwatch Institute observes that oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil-producing countries.[123] Other countries have also passed their individual oil production peaks.
The following list shows significant oil-producing nations and their approximate peak oil production years, organized by year.[124]
- Japan: 1932 (assumed; source does not specify)
- Germany: 1966
- Libya: 1970
- Venezuela: 1970
- USA: 1970[125]
- Iran: 1974
- Nigeria: 1979
- Tobago: 1981[126]
- Egypt: 1987[127]
- Russia: an artificial peak occurred in 1987 shortly before the Collapse of the Soviet Union, but production subsequently recovered, making Russia the second largest oil exporter in the world. Figures from early 2008, statements by officials, and analysis suggest that production may have peaked in 2006/2007.[128][129] Lukoil vice president Leonid Fedun has said $1 trillion would have to be spent on developing new reserves if current production levels were to be maintained.[130]
- France: 1988
- Indonesia: 1991[131]
- Syria: 1996 [132]
- India: 1997
- New Zealand: 1997[133]
- UK: 1999
- Norway: 2000[134]
- Oman: 2000[135]
- Mexico: 2004[136]
- Australia (disputed): 2004; 2001
Peak oil production has not been reached in the following nations (these numbers are estimates and subject to revision):[137]
- Iraq: 2018
- Kuwait: 2013
- Saudi Arabia: 2014
In addition, the most recent International Energy Agency and US Energy Information Administration production data show record and rising production in Canada and China.
Oil price
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2f/Oil_Prices_Medium_Term.png/300px-Oil_Prices_Medium_Term.png)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2f/Oil_Prices_Since_1861.svg/400px-Oil_Prices_Since_1861.svg.png)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/Gascoupon.png/200px-Gascoupon.png)
In terms of 2007 inflation adjusted dollars, the price of oil peaked on 30 June 2008 at over $143 a barrel. Before this period, the maximum inflation adjusted price was the equivalent of $95-100, in 1980.[138] Crude oil prices in the last several years have steadily risen from about $25 a barrel in August 2003 to over $130 a barrel in May 2008, with the most significant increases happening within the last year. These prices are well above those which caused the 1973 and 1979 energy crises. This has contributed to fears of an economic recession similar to that of the early 1980s.[139] One important indicator which supported the possibility that the price of oil had begun to have an effect on economies was that in the United States, gasoline consumption dropped by .5% in the first two months of 2008,[140] compared to a drop of .4% total in 2007.[141]
However some claim the decline in the US dollar against other significant currencies from 2007 to 2008 is a significant part of oil's price increases from $66 to $130.[142] The dollar lost approximately 14% of its value against the Euro from May 2007 to May 2008, and the price of oil rose 96% in the same time period.
Helping to fuel these price increases were reports that petroleum production is at[5][6][7] or near full capacity.[101] [8][143] In June 2005, OPEC admitted that they would 'struggle' to pump enough oil to meet pricing pressures for the fourth quarter of that year.[144]
Demand pressures on oil have been strong. Global consumption of oil rose from 30 billion barrels (4.8×10 9 m3) in 2004 to 31 billion in 2005. These consumption rates are far above new discoveries for the period, which had fallen to only eight billion barrels of new oil reserves in new accumulations in 2004.[145] In 2005, consumption was within 2 million barrels per day (320×10 3 m3/d) of production, and at any one time there are about 54 days of stock in the OECD system plus 37 days in emergency stockpiles.
Besides supply and demand pressures, at times security related factors may have contributed to increases in prices,[143] including the "War on Terror," missile launches in North Korea,[146] the Crisis between Israel and Lebanon,[147] nuclear brinkmanship between the US and Iran,[148] and reports from the U.S. Department of Energy and others showing a decline in petroleum reserves,[149]
Another factor in oil price is the cost of extracting crude. As the extraction of oil has become more difficult, oil's historically high ratio of Energy Returned on Energy Invested has seen a significant decline. The increased price of oil makes non-conventional sources of oil retrieval more attractive. For example, the so-called "tar sands" are actually a reserve of bitumen, a heavier, lower value oil compared to conventional crude. It only became attractive to production companies when oil prices exceeded about $25/bbl, high enough to cover the costs of production and upgrading to synthetic crude.
Effects of rising oil prices
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a0/World_Energy_consumption.png/300px-World_Energy_consumption.png)
In the past, the price of oil has led to economic recessions, such as the 1973 and 1979 energy crises. The effect the price of oil has on an economy is known as a price shock. In many European countries, which have high taxes on fuels, such price shocks could potentially be mitigated somewhat by temporarily or permanently suspending the taxes as fuel costs rise.[151] This method of softening price shocks is less in countries with much lower gas taxes, such as the United States.
Some economists predict that a substitution effect will spur demand for alternate energy sources, such as coal or liquefied natural gas. This substitution can only be temporary, as coal and natural gas are finite resources as well.
Prior to the run-up in fuel prices, many motorists opted for larger, less fuel-efficient sport utility vehicles and full-sized pickups in the United States, Canada and other countries. This trend has been reversing due to sustained high prices of fuel. The September 2005 sales data for all vehicle vendors indicated SUV sales dropped while small cars sales increased. Hybrid and diesel vehicles are also gaining in popularity.[152]
In 2008, a report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates stated that 2007 had been the year of peak gasoline usage in the United States, and that record energy levels would cause an "enduring shift" in energy consumption practices.[153] According to the report, in April gas consumption had been lower than a year before for the sixth straight month, suggesting 2008 would be the first year US gasoline usage declined in 17 years. The total miles driven in the US peaked in 2006.[154]
Historical understanding of world oil supply limits
Although the earth's finite oil supply means that peak oil is inevitable, technological innovations in finding and drilling for oil have at times changed the understanding of the total oil supply on Earth. As scientific understanding of petroleum geology has increased, so has our understanding of the earth's total recoverable reserves. Since 1965, major oil surveys have averaged a 95% confidence Estimated Ultimate Retrieval (P95 EUR) of a little under 2,000 billion barrels (320×10 9 m3), though some estimates have been as low as 1,500 billion barrels (240×10 9 m3), and as high as 2,400 billion barrels (380×10 9 m3).[6]
The EUR reported by the 2000 USGS survey of 2,300 billion barrels (370×10 9 m3) has been criticized for assuming a discovery trend over the next 20 years which would reverse the observed trend of the past 40 years. Their 95% confidence EUR of 2,300 billion barrels (370×10 9 m3) assumed that discovery levels would stay steady, despite the fact that discovery levels have been falling steadily since the 1960s. That trend of falling discoveries has continued in the 7 years since the USGS made their assumption. The 2000 USGS is also criticized for introducing other methodological errors, as well as assuming 2030 production rates which are inconsistent with projected reserves.[6]
Criticisms
Some do not agree with Peak Oil, at least as it has been presented by Matthew Simmons. The president of Royal Dutch Shell's US operations John Hofmeister, while agreeing that conventional oil production will soon start to decline, has criticized Simmons's analysis for being "overly focused on a single country: Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter and OPEC swing producer." He also points to the large reserves at the "US Outer Continental Shelf, which holds an estimated 100 billion barrels (16×10 9 m3) of oil and natural gas. As things stand, however, only 15 percent of those reserves are currently exploitable, a good part of that off the coasts of Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and Texas. Hofmeister also contends that Simmons erred in excluding unconventional sources of oil such as the oil sands of Canada, where Shell is already active. The Canadian oil sands — a natural combination of sand, water and oil found largely in Alberta — is believed to contain one trillion barrels of oil. Another trillion barrels are also said to be trapped in rocks in Colorado, Utah and Wyoming,[155] but are in the form of oil shale. These particular reserves present major environmental, social, and economic obstacles to recovery.[156][157] Hofmeister also claims that if oil companies were allowed to drill more in the United States enough to produce another 2 million barrels per day (320×10 3 m3/d), oil and gas prices would not be as high as they are in the later part of the 2000 to 2010 decade. He thinks that high energy prices are causing social unrest similar to levels surrounding the Rodney King riots.[158]
Dr. Christoph Rühl, Chief economist of BP, repeatedly uttered strong doubts about the peak oil hypothesis [159]
Physical peak oil, which I have no reason to accept as a valid statement either on theoretical, scientific or ideological grounds, would be insensitive to prices. (...)In fact the whole hypothesis of peak oil – which is that there is a certain amount of oil in the ground, consumed at a certain rate, and then it's finished – does not react to anything.... (Global Warming) is likely to be more of a natural limit than all these peak oil theories combined. (...) Peak oil has been predicted for 150 years. It has never happened, and it will stay this way.
According to Rühl, the main limitations for oil availability are "above ground" and are to be found in the availability of staff, expertise, technology, investment security, money and last but not least in global warming. The oil question is about price and not the basic availability. His views are shared by Daniel Yergin of CERA, who added that the recent high price phase might add to a future demise of the oil industry - not of lack of resources or an apocalyptic shock but the timely and smooth setup of alternatives [160]
In Fiction
A novel set in a Peak-Oil crisis is Alex Scarrow's book - Last Light.[161] The book portrays the collapse of the United Kingdom, as a result of a full-scale terrorist attack against several important key installations in the Middle-East. It follows the experiences of a family, a father trapped in Iraq, a mother far away from her children, a daughter and son fending for themselves, as the complete break-down of law and order causes looting, deaths and worse.
James Howard Kunstler, author of The Long Emergency[162] and The Geography of Nowhere[163], fictionalized his predictions of post-oil civilization into a novel entitled World Made by Hand[164][165] The book portrays the efforts of Robert Earle, a former software executive elected mayor of a small town in New York State, who faces the struggle of rebuilding a civil society amid arguing factions.
The Mad Max movies are based in a dystopian Australia, in which (Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior explains) the general social collapse has occurred because of a global energy shortage, particularly of oil.
See also
Further information
Books
- Colin J. Campbell,
- Campbell Colin J (2004). The Essence of Oil & Gas Depletion. Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-19-6.
- Campbell Colin J (2004). The Coming Oil Crisis. Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-11-0.
- Campbell Colin J (2005). Oil Crisis. Multi-Science Publishing. ISBN 0-906522-39-0.
- Kenneth S. Deffeyes,
- Deffeyes Kenneth S (2002). Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage. Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-09086-6.
- Deffeyes Kenneth S (2005). Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak. Hill and Wang. ISBN 0-8090-2956-1.
- Eberhart Mark (2007). Feeding the Fire: The Lost History and Uncertain Future of Mankind's Energy Addiction. Harmony. ISBN 978-0307237446.
- Goodstein David (2005). Out of Gas: The End of the Age Of Oil. WW Norton. ISBN 0-393-05857-3.
- Richard Heinberg,
- Heinberg Richard (2003). The Party's Over: Oil, War, and the Fate of Industrial Societies. New Society Publishers. ISBN 0-86571-482-7.
- Heinberg Richard (2004). Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World. New Society Publishers. ISBN 0-86571-510-6.
- Heinberg Richard (2006). The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism and Economic Collapse. New Society Publishers. ISBN 0-86571-563-7.
- Huber Peter (2005). The Bottomless Well. Basic Books. ISBN 0-465-03116-1.
- Kleveman Lutz C (2004). The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central Asia. Atlantic Monthly Press. ISBN 0-87113-906-5.
- Kunstler James H (2005). The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of the Oil Age, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes. Atlantic Monthly Press. ISBN 0-87113-888-3.
- Leggett Jeremy K (2005). The Empty Tank: Oil, Gas, Hot Air, and the Coming Financial Catastrophe. Random House. ISBN 1-4000-6527-5.
- Leggett Jeremy K (2005). Half Gone: Oil, Gas, Hot Air and the Global Energy Crisis. Portobello Books. ISBN 1-8462-7004-9.
- Leggett Jeremy K (2001). The Carbon War: Global Warming and the End of the Oil Era. Routledge. ISBN 0415931029.
- Lovins Amory; et al. (2005). Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profit, Jobs and Security. Rocky Mountain Institute. ISBN 1-881071-10-3.
{{cite book}}
: Explicit use of et al. in:|author=
(help) - Pfeiffer Dale Allen (2004). The End of the Oil Age. Lulu Press. ISBN 1-4116-0629-9.
- Leonardo Maugeri (2006). The Age of Oil: The Mythology, History, and Future of the World's Most Controversial Resource. Greenwood Publishing Group. ISBN 0275990087.
- Rashid, Ahmed,
- Rashid Ahmed (2001). Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. Yale University Press. ISBN 0-300-08902-3.
- Rashid Ahmed (2003). Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia. Yale University Press. ISBN 0-300-09345-4.
- Rifkin Jeremy (2003). The Hydrogen Economy: After Oil, Clean Energy From a Fuel-Cell-Driven Global Hydrogen Web. New York: J.P. Tarcher. ISBN 0-7456-3042-1.
- Roberts Paul (2004). The End of Oil. On the Edge of a Perilous New World. Boston: Houghton Mifflin. ISBN 9780618239771.
- Ruppert Michael C (2005). Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil. New Society. ISBN 978-0865715400.
- Simmons Matthew R (2005). Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. ISBN 0-471-73876-X.
- Shah Sonia (2004). Crude, The Story of Oil. Seven Stories Press. ISBN 1-58322-625-7.
- Simon Julian L (1998). The Ultimate Resource. Princeton University Press. ISBN 0-691-00381-5.
- Smil Vaclav (2005). Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties. MIT Press. ISBN 0-262-19492-9.
- Stansberry Mark A, Reimbold Jason (2008). The Braking Point. Hawk Publishing. ISBN 978-1-930709-67-6.
- Tertzakian Peter (2006). A Thousand Barrels a Second. McGraw-Hill. ISBN 0-07-146874-9.
- Yeomans Matthew (2004). Oil, Anatomy of an Industry. ISBN 1-56584-885-3.
{{cite book}}
: Text "New Press" ignored (help) - Yergin Daniel (1993). The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power. Free Press. ISBN 0-671-79932-0.
- No Blood for Oil! by George Caffentzis discusses peak oil and its relationship with current and past conflicts. [2]
Articles
- Tinker Scott W (2005-06-25). "Of peaks and valleys: Doomsday energy scenarios burn away under scrutiny". Dallas Morning News.
- Benner Katie (2005-12-07). "Lawmakers: Will we run out of oil?". CNN.
- Benner Katie (2004-11-03). "Oil: Is the end at hand?". CNN.
- Mitchell John V (2006-08). "A New Era for Oil Prices" (PDF).
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: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - "The Future of Oil". Foreign Policy.
- Robert Hirsch (2008-06). "Peak Oil: "A Significant Period of Discomfort"". Allianz Knowledge.
{{cite web}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - Didier Houssin, International Energy Agency (2008-05). "Oil: "If You Invest More, You Find More"". Allianz Knowledge.
{{cite web}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - Campbell Colin, Laherrère Jean. "The End of Cheap Oil". Scientific American.
- (Press release). International Energy Agency http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=137.
{{cite press release}}
: Missing or empty|title=
(help) - Williams Mark. "The End of Oil?". MIT Technology Review.
- Appenzeller Tim. "The End of Cheap Oil". National Geographic.
- Lynch Michael C. "The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources".
- Leonardo Maugeri (2004-05-20). "Oil: Never Cry Wolf—Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over". Science (journal).
- Rapier Robert (2006-04). "Peak Lite".
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(help) - Snyder Robert E (2004-08). "Oil shale back in the picture". World Oil.
{{cite web}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - Roberts Paul (2004-08). "Last Stop Gas". Harper's Magazine: 71–72.
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: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - Larry West. "Sweden aims to be world's first oil-free nation by 2020".
- "'Peak oil' enters mainstream debate". BBC News.
- Welch Dan. "Between Peak Oil and Climate Change". The Peakist.
- Mosher Donna. "Actions everyone can take to prepare for the possible end of an era". Citizens League for Environmental Action Now.
- Alex Kuhlman (2006-06). "Peak oil and the collapse of commercial aviation" (PDF). Airways.
{{cite web}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - Anonymous (2005-02-20). "A letter from oil exploration insider". Energy Bulletin.
- Cochrane Troy (2008-01-04). "Peak oil?: Oil supply and accumulation". Cultural Shifts.
- Jaeon Kirby & Colin Campbell (2008-05-30). "Life at $200 a barrel". Maclean's.
Reports, essays, and lectures
- "Crude Oil - The Supply Outlook" (PDF). Energy Watch Group. 2007-10-22.
- "Doctoral thesis: Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production". Uppsala University. 2007-03-30.
- "Review: Oil-based technology and economy - prospects for the future". The Danish Board of Technology (Teknologirådet). 2005-06-09.
- Jim Bliss (2005-07-05). "An Introduction to Peak Oil".
- City of Portland, Peak Oil Task Force (2007). "Descending the Oil Peak: Navigating the Transition from Oil and Natural Gas". City of Portland, Oregon, USA.
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{{cite web}}
: Check date values in:|date=
(help) - "Peak Oil Theory – "World Running Out of Oil Soon" – Is Faulty; Could Distort Policy & Energy Debate". CERA. 2006-11-14.
- "Australia's future oil supply and alternative transport fuels". Parliament of Australia - Senate. 2007-02-07.
Video Documentary
- Crude Awakening: The Oil Crash (2006)
- The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream (2004)
- The Power of Community: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil (2006)
- What a Way to Go: Life at the End of Empire (2007)
Notes
- ^ A list of over 20 published articles and books from government and journal sources supporting this thesis have been compiled at Dieoff.org in the section "Food, Land, Water, and Population."
References
- ^
Hubbert, M. King (1956-06). "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels 'Drilling and Production Practice'" (PDF). API. p. 22-27. Retrieved 2008-04-18.
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(help) - ^ Brandt, A. R. (2007), "Testing Hubbert" (PDF), Energy Policy, 35 (5): 3074–3088, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.004
- ^ Gwyn, Richard (2004-01-28). "Demand for Oil Outstripping Supply". Toronto Star. Retrieved 2008-07-27.
- ^ a b "CERA says peak oil theory is faulty". Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA). 2006-11-14. Retrieved 2008-07-27.
- ^ a b c d Deffeyes, Kenneth S (2007-01-19). "Current Events - Join us as we watch the crisis unfolding". Princeton University: Beyond Oil. Retrieved 2008-07-27. Cite error: The named reference "deffeyes012007" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k
Zittel, Werner; Schindler, Jorg (2007-10). "Crude Oil: The Supply Outlook" (PDF). Energy Watch Group. Retrieved 2008-07-27.
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Koppelaar, Rembrandt H.E.M. (2006-09). "World Production and Peaking Outlook" (PDF). Peakoil Nederland. Retrieved 2008-07-27.
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"2007 International Energy Outlook: Petroleum and other liquid fuels". U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2007. Retrieved 2008-07-27.
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- ^ "Domestic Demand for Refined Petroleum Products by Sector". U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Retrieved 2007-12-20.
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- ^ a b "BP Statistical Review of Energy - 2008" (PDF). Beyond Petroleum. 2008. Retrieved 2008-07-27.
- ^ Oil price 'may hit $200 a barrel', BBC News
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- ^ a b
Duncan Richard C (2001). "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge". Population & Environment. 22 (5): pp. 503–522. doi:10.1023/A:1010793021451. ISSN (Print) 1573-7810 (Online) 0199-0039 (Print) 1573-7810 (Online).
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- ^ Savinar, Matt. "Are We 'Running Out'? I Thought There Was 40 Years of the Stuff Left". Life After the Oil Crash. Retrieved 2007-12-20.
- ^ Mieszkowski, Katharine (2006-03-22). "The oil is going, the oil is going!". Salon.com. Retrieved 2008-03-08.
- ^ Bartlett, Albert A. (2004-08-27). "Thoughts on Long-Term Energy Supplies: Scientists and the Silent Lie" (PDF). Physics Today. Retrieved 2008-03-08.
- ^ a b c d "International Petroleum (Oil) Production Data". US Energy Information Administration. Retrieved 2008-03-31.
- ^ "The World Factbook". US Central Intelligence Agency. 2008-03-20. Retrieved 2008-03-31.
- ^ "Table of World Oil Production 2006" (PDF). BP. Retrieved 2007-12-20.
- ^ Goodchild, Peter (2007-10-29). "Peak Oil And Famine:Four Billion Deaths". Countercurrents. Retrieved 2008-08-21.
- ^ Pfeiffer, Dale Allen (2004). "Eating Fossil Fuels". From the Wilderness. Retrieved 2008-08-21.
- ^ a b c "Price rise and new deep-water technology opened up offshore drilling". The Boston Globe. 2005-12-11. Retrieved 2008-08-21.
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Campbell CJ (2000-12). "Peak Oil Presentation at the Technical University of Clausthal". The Boston Globe. Retrieved 2008-08-21.
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(help) - ^ Harry J. Longwell, Executive VP Exxon-Mobil (2002). "The Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: Past Approaches, New Challenges" (PDF). World Energy. pp. pp. 100-104. Retrieved 2008-08-21.
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(help) - ^ "Oil industry report says demand to outpace crude oil production". International Herald Tribune. 2007-07-16. Retrieved 2008-08-26.
- ^ "UK Oil Reserves and Estimated Ultimate Recovery 2007". Department of Business Enterprise and Business Reform. 2007-9. Retrieved 2008-08-19.
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- ^ "Briefing: Exxon increases budget for oil exploration". International Herald Tribune. 2007-03-07. Retrieved 2008-08-26.
- ^ "Shell plans huge spending increase". International Herald Tribune. 2005-12-14. Retrieved 2008-08-26.
- ^ Boxell, James (2004-10-10). "Top Oil Groups Fail to Recoup Exploration". Energy Bulletin. Retrieved 2008-08-26.
- ^ Gerth, Jeff (2004-02-24). "Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields". New York Times. Retrieved 2008-08-26.
- ^ Morsfeld, Carl (2004-10-10). "How Shell blew a hole in a 100-year reputation". The Times. Retrieved 2008-08-26.
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- ^ Javed, Ali (2000-12-01). "The Economic and Environmental Impact of the Gulf War on Kuwait and the Persian Gulf". American University Trade and Environment Database. Retrieved 2007-11-18.
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- ^ Duarte Joe (2006-03-28). "Canadian Tar Sands: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly". RigZone.
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- ^ Dyni, John R (2003), "Geology and resources of some world oil-shale deposits (Presented at Symposium on Oil Shale in Tallinn, Estonia, November 18-21, 2002)" (PDF), Oil Shale. A Scientific-Technical Journal, 20 (3), Estonian Academy Publishers: 193–252, ISSN 0208-189X, retrieved 2007-06-17
- ^ Strategic Significance of America’s Oil Shale Resource. Volume II Oil Shale Resources, Technology and Economics (PDF), Office of Deputy Assistant Secretary for Petroleum Reserves; Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves; U.S. Department of Energy, 2004, retrieved 2007-06-23
- ^ Excluding Unconventional World Oil Reserves
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- ^ Söderbergh, B.; Robelius, F.; Aleklett, K. (2007). "A crash programme scenario for the Canadian oil sands industry" (PDF). Energy Policy. 35 (3). Elsevier: 1931–1947. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2006.06.007. Retrieved 2008-06-17.
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(help) - ^ Hoyos Carola (2007-02-18). "Study sees harmful hunt for extra oil". Financial Times.
- ^ Lemley Brad (2003-05-01). "Anything Into Oil". Discover magazine.
- ^ Lemley Brad (2006-04-02). "Anything Into Oil". Discover magazine.
- ^ a b "World Oil Supply and Demand" (PDF). International Energy Agency. 2007-01-18.
- ^ "Peak Oil and Energy Resources".
- ^ "Country Analysis Briefs: Saudi Arabia". U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2008.
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ignored (help) - ^ Miller Matthew S (2007-03-09). "Ghawar Is Dead!". Energy Bulletin.
- ^ Cordahi James, Critchlow Andy (2005-11-09). "Kuwait Oil Field, World's Second Largest, 'Exhausted'". Bloomberg.
- ^ Carl Mortishead (2008-01-18). "World not running out of oil, say experts". Times Online.
- ^ http://www.peakoil.net/Aleklett/Review_CERA_report_20060808.doc
- ^ "Canales: Output will drop at Cantarell field". El Universal. 2006-02-10.
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- ^ OPEC Summit Roundup Production hike prospects fade as Abu Dhabi summit looms - Forbes.com
- ^ "Chevron Announces Record Setting Well Test at Jack". Chevron. 2006-09-05.
- ^ U.S. Oil Reserves Get a Big Boost - washingtonpost.com
- ^ Geyer Greg (2006-09-19). "Jack-2 Test Well Behind The Hype". Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas.
- ^ Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government, Energy Information Administration.
- ^ Mackey Peg, Lawler Alex (2008-01-09). "Tough to pump more oil, even at $100". Manchester Guardian. Reuters.
- ^ "Non-OPEC peak oil threat receding". Arabian Business. 2007-07-06.
- ^ McNulty Sheila (2007-05-09). "Politics of oil seen as threat to supplies". Financial Times.
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Fox Justin (2007-05-31). "No More Gushers for ExxonMobil". Time magazine.
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(help) - ^ Gaurav Sodhi (2008-06-24). "The Myth of OPEC". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 2008-08-21.
- ^ Michael Schwartz (2007-10-30). "Why Did We Invade Iraq Anyway? Putting a Country in Your Tank". Global Policy. Retrieved 2008-08-21.
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Noel Grove, reporting M. King Hubbert (1974). "Oil, the Dwindling Treasure". National Geographic.
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"Light-Duty Automotive Technology and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2006 - Executive Summary". EPA EPA420-S-06-003. 2006-07.
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Ferenc L. Toth, Hans-Holger Rogner, (2006). "Oil and nuclear power: Past, present, and future" (PDF). Energy Economics. 28 (1–25): pg. 3.
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{{cite conference}}
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suggested) (help)CS1 maint: date format (link) - ^ John Tierney. The New York Times. August 23 2005 „The $10,000 Question.“
- ^ Macleod Scott (2002-02-25). "How to Bring Change to the Kingdom". Time.
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"Newsletter" (PDF). Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. 2008-01.
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(help) - ^
"Newsletter" (PDF). Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Ireland. 2008-05.
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(help) - ^ "Boone Pickens Warns of Petroleum Production Peak". Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas. 2005-05-03.
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"Medium-Term Oil Market Report". IEA. 2007-07.
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(help) - ^ Seager Ashley (2007-10-22). "Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study". The Guardian.
- ^ "Peak oil". 2006-10-28.
- ^ "One energy forecast: Oil supplies grow". Christian Science Monitor. 2005-06-22.
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- ^ Lynch Michael C (2004). "The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)" (PDF). American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004.
- ^ Mouawad, Jad (2007-03-05). "Oil Innovations Pump New Life Into Old Wells". New York Times.
- ^ May 20 2004, Science, Oil: Never Cry Wolf—Why the Petroleum Age Is Far from over, by Leonardo Maugeri
- ^ Nyquist JR (2006-05-08). "Debunking Peak Oil". Financial Sense.
- ^ Science Magazine, Abiogenic Hydrocarbon Production at Lost City Hydrothermal Field February 2008
- ^ Mello MR, Moldowan JM (2005). "Petroleum: To Be Or Not To Be Abiogenic". searchanddiscovery.net.
- ^ T. Gold: Proceedings of National Academy of Science http://www.pnas.org/cgi/reprint/89/13/6045
- ^ Microsoft Word - NETL Final Report, 2-05.doc
- ^ Kunstler, James Howard (1994). Geography Of Nowhere: The Rise And Decline of America's Man-Made Landscape. New York: Simon & Schuster. ISBN 0-671-88825-0
- ^ James Howard Kunstler (2004). The tragedy of suburbia. Monterey, CA: TED: Ideas worth sharing.
{{cite AV media}}
: Unknown parameter|month=
ignored (help) - ^ Vittorio E. Pareto, Marcos P. Pareto. "The Urban Component of the Energy Crisis" (PDF). Retrieved 2008-08-13.
- ^ Robert L. Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, Robert Wendling, "Peaking of world oil production: impacts, mitigation, & risk management" February 2005
- ^ "Winners: First Annual Beyond Peak Scenario Contest". Mick Winter (ed.). 2006.
- ^ Hansen, J. (2007). "Dangerous Human-Made Interference with Climate" (PDF). Testimony to Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, United States House of Representatives. 26. Retrieved 2008-07-02.
- ^ Jensen, Derrick (2006). Endgame, Volume 1: The Problem of Civilization. New York City: Seven Stories Press. ISBN 978-1-58322-730-5.
- ^ WorldWatch Institute (2005-01-01). State of the World 2005: Redefining Global Security. New York: Norton. p. 107. ISBN 0-393-32666-7.
- ^ Unless otherwise specified, source is ABC TV's Four Corners.
- ^ http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/txt/stb0501.xls
- ^ Trinidad and Tobago Crude Oil Production by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)
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- ^ "Oil price hits $113. 93 a barrel". BBC News. 2008-04-15.
- ^ Aram Mäkivierikko (2007-10-01). Russian Oil - a Depletion Rate Model estimate of the future Russian oil production and export (PDF). Uppsala University.
- ^ "'Threat' to future of Russia oil". BBC News. 2008-04-15.
- ^ Indonesia Crude Oil Production and Consumption by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)
- ^ Syrian Arab Republic Crude Oil Production and Consumption by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)
- ^ New Zealand Crude Oil Production by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)
- ^ Helge Lund: - «Peak Oil» har kommet til Norge (Olje , Statoil)
- ^ Oman Crude Oil Production and Consumption by Year (Thousand Barrels per Day)
- ^ "Mexico says reform won't reverse oil woes fast". Reuters. July 29, 2008. Retrieved 2008-08-08.
- ^ Four Corners Broadband Edition: Peak Oil
- ^ "What is driving oil prices so high?". BBC News. 2007-11-05.
- ^ Bruno Joe Bel (2008-03-08). "Oil Rally May Be Economy's Undoing". AP. Retrieved 2008-03-08.
- ^ Langfitt Frank (2008-03-05). "Americans Using Less Gasoline". National Public Radio.
- ^ Lavelle Marianne (2008-03-04). "Oil Demand Is Dropping, but Prices Aren't". U.S. News & World Report.
- ^ John Wilen (2008-04-21). "Oil prices pass $132 after government reports supply drop". Associated Press.
- ^ a b "Global oil prices jump to 11-month highs". Petroleum World. 2007-07-09.
- ^ "Oil prices rally despite OPEC output hike". MSNBC. 2005-06-15.
- ^ "Oil Market Report - Demand" (PDF). International Energy Agency. 2006-07-12.
- ^ Missile tension sends oil surging
- ^ Oil hits $100 barrel, BBC News
- ^ Iran nuclear fears fuel oil price, BBC News
- ^ "Record oil price sets the scene for $200 next year". AME. July 6, 2006. Retrieved 2007-11-29.
- ^ "World Consumption of Primary Energy by Energy Type and Selected Country Groups, 1980-2004" (XLS). Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy. 2006-07-31. Retrieved 2007-01-20.
- ^ James Kanter (2007-11-09). "European politicians wrestle with high gasoline prices". International Herald Tribune.
- ^ Fildes, M.; Nelson, S.; Sener, N.; Steiner, F.; Suntharasaj, P.; Tarman, R.T.; Harmon, R.R. (2007). "Marketing Opportunity Analysis for Daimler Chrysler's Sprinter Van Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle". Management of Engineering and Technology, Portland International Center for: 1797–1810.
{{cite journal}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ Ana Campoy (June 20, 2008). "Prices Curtail U.S. Gasoline Use". Wall Street Journal. p. A4.
- ^ Clifford Krauss (June 19, 2008). "Driving Less, Americans Finally React to Sting of Gas Prices, a Study Says". New York Times.
- ^ The 'Peak Oil' Theory: Will Oil Reserves Run Dry?
- ^ Amy Gillentine (June 9, 2006). "Oil shale exploration: bonanza or bust?". The Colorado Springs Business Journal.
{{cite journal}}
: Cite journal requires|journal=
(help) - ^ John Laumer (2007-12-26). "A Return To Colorado Oil Shale?". TreeHugger.
{{cite journal}}
: Cite journal requires|journal=
(help) - ^ Charlie Rose. "A conversation with [[John Hofmeister]]". PBS.
{{cite web}}
: URL–wikilink conflict (help) - ^ [1] BP: Preisschwankungen werden wahrscheinlich zunehmenen, Interview (in English) mit Dr. Christoph Rühl, Mittwoch 1. Oktober 2008, Euractiv Website
- ^ Financial Times Germany, 29.05.2008 Daniel Yergin: Öl am Wendepunkt (Oil at the turing point)
- ^ Scarrow, Alex (2007). Last Light. Orion. ISBN 0752886142.
- ^ Kunstler, James Howard (2006). The Long Emergency. Grove Press. ISBN 9780802142498.
- ^ Kunstler, James Howard (1994). The Geography of Nowhere. Simon & Schuster Adult Publishing Group. ISBN 9780671888251.
- ^ Kunstler, James Howard (2008). World Made by Hand. Atlantic Monthly Press. ISBN 9780871139788.
- ^ James Howard Kunstler. "World Made by Hand". Retrieved 2008-08-21.
External links
Web sites
- "Association for the Study of Peak Oil International"
- "ASPO-USA"
- "Eating Fossil Fuels" FromTheWilderness.com
- "Energy Bulletin" Peak Oil related articles
- "Global Oil Watch" - Extensive peak oil library
- "Mazama Science" - A visual review of production and consumption trends for individual nations; data from the 2008 BP Statistical Review.
- "Peak Oil For Dummies" - concise quotes from renowned politicians, oil executives, and analysts
- "The Oil Age" - poster showing petroleum data in relation to peak oil
- Peak Oil countdown clock and charts
- "Petroleum Data" U.S. Energy Information Agency
- "Peak Oil Crisis News" - Automatically updated news from several news websites plus a real time crude price
- What role for schools in preparing for peak oil?
Responses to the Peak Oil Crisis
- Pickens Plan - A two-part solution to the Peak Oil crisis involving wind and natural gas.
Online audio, podcasts
- David Holmgren (2004-07-28). "David Holmgren talks about Peak Oil and Permaculture". archive.org.
Online videos
- "Rep. Prof. Roscoe Bartlett's to U.S. House of Representatives". CSPAN. 2005-04-05.
- "Video interview with Richard Heinberg". OneWorldTV.
- "EnergyChallenge TV - Peak Oil Video and Audio". ASPO-USA. 2007-02-12.
{{cite web}}
: Text "* EnergyChallenge TV - Peak Oil Videos, Interviews, Presentations, and Media Reports" ignored (help)