2008 Republican Party presidential primaries

See also: Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

Republican Presidential Primaries, 2008

January 3 2008 to September 4 2008

The 2008 Republican primaries are the selection processes by which the Republican Party selects delegates to attend the 2008 Republican National Convention. The series of primaries, caucuses and conventions culminates in the National Convention to be held in Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota from September 1 until September 4, 2008, where the delegates will vote on and select a candidate.

In order to win the nomination at the convention, a candidate must receive votes from at least 1,191 delegates. On March 4, US Senator John McCain likely passed that total as a result of his accumulated primary victories and became the apparent Republican nominee. McCain is expected to become the nominee officially at the September convention.

Candidates

Main article: United States Republican presidential candidates, 2008

Notes for the following table: Delegate counts are estimates, and are taken from RCP.

Candidate	Current office	Home state	Estimated delegate count (RCP)	Campaign status	Links	States won	States - second place	States - third place
McCain, JohnJohn McCain	U.S. Senator	Arizona	1260 62.7%	Current	campaign article, campaign website	29 (New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, New York, California, Illinois, Missouri, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Arizona, New Jersey, Delaware, Washington, Virginia, Maryland, Wisconsin, Vermont, Rhode Island, Ohio, Texas, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia (primary), Nebraska, Kentucky, Oregon, Idaho) Non-states: Washington DC, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, American Samoa, Guam	13 (Alabama, Arkansas, Utah, Massachusetts, Maine, Michigan, Georgia, Tennessee, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, Kansas, Louisiana)	4 (Nevada, Maine, West Virginia (caucus), Montana)
Romney, MittMitt Romney	Former Governor	Massachusetts	272 19.5%	Withdrew February 14, 2008	campaign article, campaign website	11 (Nevada, Michigan, Wyoming, Maine, Massachusetts, Montana, Utah, Minnesota, Colorado, North Dakota, Alaska)	11 (Iowa, New Hampshire, Florida, West Virginia (caucus), Illinois, New York, Arizona, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, California)	9 (Missouri, Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Maryland, Washington (primary))
Huckabee, MikeMike Huckabee	Former Governor	Arkansas	270 16.7%	Withdrew March 4, 2008	campaign article, campaign website	8 (Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, West Virginia (caucus), Tennessee, Kansas, Louisiana)	14 (South Carolina, Oklahoma, Missouri, Alaska, Washington, Virginia, Washington DC, Maryland, Wisconsin, Washington, Northern Mariana Islands, West Virginia (primary), Kentucky	11 (Michigan, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Illinois, Arizona, Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Minnesota, Colorado, Pennsylvania)
Paul, RonRon Paul	U.S. Representative	Texas	45 1.1%	Current	campaign article, campaign website	0	9 (Nevada, Montana, Northern Mariana Islands, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska, Oregon, Idaho)	17 (N. Dakota, Utah, Alaska, Maine, Kansas, Washington (caucus), Virginia, District of Columbia, Wisconsin, Puerto Rico, Vermont, Rhode Island, Ohio, Texas, Mississippi, West Virginia (primary), Kentucky
Thompson, FredFred Thompson	Former U.S. Senator	Tennessee	0	Withdrew January 22, 2008	campaign article, campaign website	0	1 (Wyoming)	2 (South Carolina, Iowa)
Giuliani, RudyRudy Giuliani	Former Mayor	New York	0	Withdrew January 30, 2008	campaign article, campaign website	0	0	1 (Florida)
Hunter, DuncanDuncan Hunter	U.S. Representative	California	0	Withdrew January 19, 2008	campaign article, campaign website	0	0	1 (Wyoming)

Calendar and representation

Republican candidates in the 2008 U.S. presidential election will campaign for the nomination from their party in a series of primary elections and caucus events.

Delegate selection

Primary key [1]
Primary type	Explanation
Closed	Voters may only select candidates of the party for which they are registered
Open	Anyone is allowed to vote for candidates from either party
Modified open	Voters registered to a party may only select candidates of that party, but independents may choose candidates from either party
Caucus	Party members meet among themselves to select candidates. Rules may be very complicated, including members having to choose publicly by standing in groups by preference, instead of secret ballot
Primary	An election-type selection process, with general voters going to polling places for a secret ballot
Convention	Delegates chosen locally by each party meet in a central location and select a candidate
Presidential preference	Those polled get to list candidates in the order of whom they like most. As candidates are eliminated, the highest remaining on their list becomes their vote
WTA	Winner Take All -- whoever wins the most votes in the state, even if not a majority, gets all of the delegates
Proportional	The state's delegates are divided up among the candidates, in proportion to their percentage of the vote

The Republican National Committee (RNC) allocates delegates to the States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the United States Virgin Islands, and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands in four categories. Three district level delegates are given to states for each of their congressional districts. Ten additional at-large delegates are given to each state regardless of population. States earn additional bonus delegates for having U.S. Senators and governors from the Republican Party, sending a majority-Republican delegation to the U.S. House, maintaining partial or total Republican control of the state legislature, or casting a majority of their 2004 electoral vote for George W. Bush. Finally, each jurisdiction (each state and the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, American Samoa, the United States Virgin Islands and the Northern Mariana Islands) automatically receives three party delegates: their two RNC delegates and the chairman of the state Republican party. Jurisdictions without Constitutionally Elected Members of Congress, (U.S. Territories and the District of Columbia) are only eligible to send at-large and party delegates. The rules and numbers of delegates are spelled out in the Republican party's Call for the Convention, which was published on November 9, 2007.

Unlike the Democratic Party, which mandates a proportional representation system for delegate selection within a state, the Republican Party has no such restriction. For states with primaries, some states choose to use the "winner-take-all" method to award delegates within a state, while others do winner-take-all within a congressional district, and still others use the proportional process. Unlike the Democratic Party, where pledged delegates support the candidate whom they are pledged, state party by-laws determine whether each delegate is pledged and for how many ballots.

In caucus states, most state parties use a two pronged process. A straw poll, often called a presidential preference poll, is conducted of the attendees at the caucus. The results are released to the media and published on the state party website. Delegates are then elected to the county conventions. It is at the county conventions that delegates are elected to state conventions, and from the state convention to the national convention. At each level, delegates may be bound or unbound to a candidate. If unbound, delegates are not obligated to follow the results of the presidential preference poll. Thus, all estimates of delegates from caucus states are dependent on state party by-laws.

Republican caucus and primary elections color coded by date: January, Super Tuesday, February post-ST, March, April-June

Endorsements

Main article: Congressional endorsements for the 2008 United States presidential election

Unlike in the Democratic Party, Republican members of Congress (including Senate members, House members, and non-voting delegates), and state governors are not automatically made delegates to the party's national convention, however their endorsements can hold sway on voters in caucuses and primaries.

Each state's two members of the Republican National Committee, and the party chairs of each state and territory are the only automatic delegates to the party's national convention. These superdelegates while officially uncommitted, may also publicly endorse a candidate.

Early campaigning

The race for the 2008 presidential nomination offially began in March of 2006 when John H. Cox became the first candidate to enter the 2008 race. The Democratic takeover of both houses of Congress and President Bush's unflattering popularity were strong issues for the GOP field. At the beginning of 2007, the announced Republican field was former Governor of Wisconsin and Cabinet member Tommy Thompson, former Governor of Virginia Jim Gilmore, and Senator of Kansas Sam Brownback. Former senator of Virginia George Allen was considered the frontrunner until his loss in the midterm elections. He announced on December 10, 2006 that he would not seek the 2008 nomination. Several others, such as Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also ruled themselves out of the race. In early January former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney announced he was forming an exploratory committee. Afterwards several others announced they were running, including Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Rudy Giuliani of New York City, U.S. Senator John McCain, U.S. Congressman Duncan Hunter, and U.S.Congressman Tom Tancredo. A poll released in early February had Giuliani leading with 32% and John McCain second with 18%. By early March, Giuliani had become the frontrunner. Alan Keyes and former Senator and actor Fred Thompson entered the race later in September

Giuliani becomes the frontrunner

In early September 2007 Rudy Giuliani addressed a convention of troopers in Portland, Maine stating that he would create programs in the mold of COMPSTAT which he developed as mayor, to fight terrorism and promote border security, calling the programs TerrorSTAT and BorderSTAT. Giuliani also stated that he supported a ID card system for the government to keep track of information on immigrants to help eliminate illegal immigration and crime. He touted his experience in law enforcement stating, "I don't think there's been a president since Teddy Roosevelt that's had as much experience with policing as I've had."

Giuliani wrote an essay speaking about the need for changes in the State Department and a "revolution in diplomatic affairs". The essay entitled "Toward a Realistic Peace" recognizes the need for a return to the policies of the Eisenhower Administration, praising it as the last coherent policy-making and policy-executing system in Washington. The essay criticizes the Clinton Administration stating,"We have responded forcefully to the Terrorists' War on Us, abandoning a decade long — and counterproductive — strategy of defensive reaction in favor of a vigorous offense." Giuliani stresses that diplomacy should be an important facet of foreign policy but cannot be overused.

Diplomacy has received a bad name, because of two opposing perspectives. One side denigrates diplomacy because it believes that negotiation is inseparable from accommodation. ... The other seemingly believes that diplomacy can solve nearly all problems, even those involving people dedicated to our destruction. When such efforts fail, as they inevitably do, diplomacy itself is blamed, rather than the flawed approach that led to their failure. ... America has been most successful as a world leader when it has used strength and diplomacy hand in hand. To achieve a realistic peace, U.S. diplomacy must be tightly linked to our other strengths: military, economic and moral.

On September 21, 2007, numerous news agencies reported on Giuliani's interruption by, presumably, his wife during a publicized National Rifle Association speech.

Shortly thereafter a vast array of Internet blogs criticized the call as being a phony political gimmick. A source from within Giuliani's camp said, "what you saw today was a candidate in a spontaneous moment on the campaign trail." While Jeff Barker, a campaign spokesman confirmed, "the call was not planned."

The official stance from Giuliani is not yet concrete, as during the same day Mitt Romney's political camp revealed a prior video wherein June, he had again left his cell phone on and received another call from his wife.

According to the Wall Street Journal editorial page, Giuliani has taken approximately 40 calls during speeches.

Early McCain campaign

McCain's second quarter 2007 fundraising results and campaign financials were poor. Both McCain supporters and political observers pointed to McCain's support for the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007, very unpopular among the Republican base electorate, as a primary cause of his fundraising problems.

Large-scale campaign staff downsizing took place in early July, with 50 to 100 staffers let go and others taking pay cuts or switching to no pay. McCain's aides said the campaign was considering taking public matching funds, and would focus its efforts on the early primary and caucus states. McCain however said he was not considering dropping out of the race.

Fellow Senator, but Immigration Reform Act opponent, Tom Coburn wrote a piece for National Review praising McCain for showing great political courage in sticking behind the Act even though it was damaging his presidential hopes.

Campaign shakeups reached the top level on July 10, 2007, when campaign manager Terry Nelson and campaign chief strategist John Weaver both departed. Another senior aide and co-author of McCain's books, Mark Salter, reduced his role in the campaign as well (he would later return to a full role). McCain's co-chair for his Florida campaign, State Rep Bob Allen, was arrested on July 11, 2007, on charges of sexual sollicitation (prostitution). In addition, on July 16, 2007, nine members of McCain's staff, including Brian Jones, McCain's communications director, and two deputies, Matt David and Danny Diaz, announced their resignations.

Mitt Romney frontrunner in early states

Mitt started to gain momentum after his Ames straw poll win. A poll released in September had him leading frontrunner Rudy 28% to 16%. In New Hampshire he was leading Rudy 27% to 23%.

Fred Thompson announces

Thompson stating in April that he was thinking about a possible run. By summer he was in second place in most national polls. Thompson declared his intent to seek the nomination on September 5, 2007 on the Tonight Show With Jay Leno, accompanied by a 15-minute web video. He then began a five-day tour of early voting states, including Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Thompson and his campaign bus in Iowa, 2007.

In late September and early October, Fred Thompson made several blunders including not being aware of the Supreme Court decision regarding lethal injection, confusing the party in power during the John Roberts nomination, being unaware of the controversy over drilling for oil in the Everglades, and confusing Russia and the Soviet Union. Thompson was considered by some to be the conservative alternative to Giuliani. On Meet the Press Thompson stated that the states should decide whether or not abortion should legal. Mike Huckabee criticised him for that. Then Thompson said that Huckabees' view was the only conservative position he had.

On September 27, 2007, PBS television hosted a Republican debate in Baltimore, Maryland, at Morgan State University that aired live on PBS and on www.pbs.org. Thompson, who missed his first debate opportunity since declaring his candidacy, was criticized by event organizers and other GOP candidates for his absence. The October 9, 2007, CNBC, The Wall Street Journal, and the University of Michigan-Dearborn hosted Republican debate in Dearborn, Michigan, at the Ford Community and Performing Arts Center. featured Thompson in attendance.

Early dropouts

The first to drop out of the race was Former Virginia Governor Jim Gilmore in July. After that Tommy Thompson also dropped out in August after finishing 6th in the Ames Iowa straw poll. Then pro-life advocate Sam Brownback dropped out of the race in October. In December, staunch illegal-immigration opponent Tom Tancredo and businessman John H. Cox also left the race.

Mike Huckabee makes a comeback

Former Arkansas Governor, Mike Huckabee, at a speaking engagement in Southern California in October 2007.

Huckabee came in second place in the Family Research Council Value Voters Summit straw poll with 27.15%, behind former Massachusetts Governor Romney, but won among onsite voters with 51.26 percent of onsite votes at the Washington, DC meeting. On October 22, actor Chuck Norris announced his endorsement of Huckabee in a release on Huckabee's website. Norris said that "I believe the only one who has all of the characteristics to lead America forward into the future is ex-Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Mike Huckabee is the real deal." On The Sean Hannity Show on October 22, debate analyst Frank Luntz said "I think Mike Huckabee's coming in 2nd in Iowa." In late October, following the Republican Presidential Debate in Orlando, Florida, Huckabee's website traffic increased to more than that of all of the other Republican candidates except for Ron Paul. On October 25, a national Rasmussen poll gave Huckabee his highest polling number yet - 10%. Talk show host Bill O'Reilly, who was a skeptic of Huckabee's success, had previously made a bet with Dick Morris that Huckabee would never reach double digits.

There was controversy when Huckabee was asked about responses he gave on a questionnaire during his 1992 race for the U.S. Senate. Huckabee stated in 1992, "I feel is an aberrant, unnatural, and sinful lifestyle, and we now know it can pose a dangerous public health risk". He also suggested that AIDS patients should be "isolated from the general population". He stuck by those comments in December 2007 when asked if is sinful. He replied, "Well I believe it would be -- just like lying is sinful and stealing is sinful. There are a lot of things that are sinful. It doesn't mean that a person is a horrible person. It means that they engage in behavior that is outside the norms of those boundaries of our traditional view of what's right and what's wrong. So, I think that anybody who has, maybe a traditional worldview of would classify that as an unusual behavior that is not traditional and that would be outside those bounds." He also defended his statements about isolation of AIDS patients, claiming that in 1992 "we were still learning about the virus that causes AIDS". Huckabee's poll numbers have risen consistently through November and December. On November 15 2007, Huckabee was recorded as placing second in Iowa in an American Research Group poll at 24%. This was only 2% points lower than the leader Mitt Romney. Polls in early December placed Huckabee ahead of Romney in Iowa by as much as 5 points in a poll by the Des Moines Register, and 3 points in a Rasmussen poll.

On November 16 2007, Huckabee was recorded as placing second, for the first time, in a nation-wide poll, garnering 12% of presidential tracking poll by Rassmussen Reports. He was tied with Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson. On December 1 2007, Huckabee moved up to 15%, his highest percentage yet - and he surpassed Giuliani on December 5 with 20% of Republican voters supporting him nationally versus Giuliani's 17%. On December 19, Huckabee tied with Giuliani in the national Reuters/Zogby poll.

Huckabee credited divine intervention for his rising poll numbers. "There's only one explanation for it," Huckabee said, "and it's not a human one. It's the same power that helped a little boy with two fish and five loaves feed a crowd of 5,000 people." When the close proximity of the first contests to the holidays led to many candidates putting out Christmas ads and videos — allowing them to keep presenting their message but in a more appropriate setting — Huckabee chose one acknowledging that viewers were tired of political messages in the holiday season and that what "really matters is the celebration of the birth of Christ", avoiding other candidates' "Happy holidays" formulation. The ad generated considerable media discussion about whether a white bookshelf in the background was a subliminal Christian cross; Huckabee mocked the suggestion and said it was just a bookshelf. When asked about the ad and the thought of it being a cross, Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul stated that he had not seen the ad, but replied with the assumption that it was a cross, quoting Sinclair Lewis' warning that "when fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in the flag, carrying a cross."

Roy Beck, whose 1.5 million member organization NumbersUSA played a major role in defeating the Senate immigration bill, calls Huckabee "an absolute disaster as governor of Arkansas... Every time there was any enforcement in his state, he took the side of the illegal aliens." Huckabee responded by saying if voters are looking for the toughest guy on immigration, he's not their man. Later on, Roy Beck did state that Numbers USA had gotten Mike Huckabee to move right on his positions, and rated him as good, the highest category after Duncan Hunter left the race after Nevada

A campaign in peril

Rudy Giuliani campaign events by state

By mid-December 2007, Giuliani was keeping to his strategy of campaigning in big states such as New York, New Jersey, Florida, California, Illinois, Missouri, and other Super Tuesday states, while the other contenders focused on the earlier states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. However, the strategy was now seen as at risk. Not only were his poll numbers in the early states falling — despite an attempt for a while to boost his standing in New Hampshire with $3 million of radio and television advertising, which ended up not having any effect — but he had lost his national lead and had fallen into statistical ties with Mike Huckabee. Most dangerously, his lead in Florida, the first state that he planned to heavily contest, was dwindling as well. Furthermore, changes in Giuliani's campaign messaging went largely unnoticed by the press, given that they were focused on Iowa and New Hampshire developments. Giuliani's woes were further symbolized when he got sick with flu-like symptoms during a campaign flight and was admitted overnight to Barnes-Jewish Hospital in St. Louis, Missouri as a precaution. Giuliani resumed limited campaigning in subsequent days; the campaign would not give precise details of tests done; Giuliani then stated it had been a "terrible headache", not flu, and a full medical report would be given after Christmas; but the health question had become an ongoing campaign story. Giuliani did indeed get a clean bill of health from his doctor on the day after Christmas, but again a minor amount of political damage had been done.

Giuliani's voter appeal continued to be hurt by the previous month's stories about his personal and business life, as well as the reduced level of civil strife in Iraq undercutting his security-based campaign messages. When the close proximity of the first contests to the holidays led to many candidates putting out Christmas videos — allowing them to keep presenting their message but in a more appropriate setting — Giuliani chose two videos which combined his policy goals with humorous asides with Santa Claus regarding fruit cakes as gifts or the vain hope that "all the presidential candidates can just get along."

Iowa and New Hampshire

On January 3rd 2008 Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucus by 9 points over former frontrunner Mitt Romney.

2008 Iowa Republican Caucus county Map

  Mike Huckabee

  Mitt Romney

  Ron Paul

New Hampshire came and it was a dead heat between John McCain and Mitt Romney. Polls had McCain with 26% and Romney with 30%. As votes came in McCain was leading and was declared the winner 37% to 31%.

2008 New Hampshire Primary results by precinct, which correspond to municipal boundaries

  John McCain

  Mitt Romney

  Mike Huckabee

  Ron Paul

Michigan

With different winners in Iowa and New Hampshire - and Mitt Romney taking the lower-profile Wyoming caucus - the January 15 Michigan primary loomed as an important battle. Polls after New Hampshire showed a tight race between McCain and Romney, with Huckabee a close third. Many saw Michigan as Romney's last chance for a campaign-saving win after disappointments in the first two races. Others said that a win in Michigan could cement McCain's status as the "front-runner" for the nomination. McCain's campaign garnered about $1 million in newly contributed funds immediately after the New Hampshire win, but still had $3.5 million in bank debt. He was not alone in feeling a financial pinch; the entire Republican field suffered from a lack of enthusiasm and lower donations than the Democratic candidates were getting, with by comparison Hillary Rodham Clinton getting $6 million in new funds immediately after her New Hampshire win.

Nevertheless, some polls showed McCain getting a significant national bounce from his New Hampshire win; the January 11 CNN nationwide poll had him at 34 percent support, a 21-point increase from where he had been just a month before, and a significant lead over follow-upers Huckabee (21 percent) and Giuliani (18 percent). As the Michigan race entered its final days, McCain gained some notoriety by sending out mailers there and in South Carolina attacking Romney's tax record and touting his own. A Romney campaign spokesman called the ad "as sloppy as it is factually incorrect", and FactCheck.org called the piece "misleading". McCain responded by saying, "It's not negative campaigning. I think it's what his record is." "It's a tough business," he added.

The dominant issue in Michigan was the state of the economy. Michigan had by far the nation's largest unemployment rate, at 7.4 percent, and was continuing to lose jobs from its historical manufacturing base. McCain offered a bit of his "straight talk", saying that "There are some jobs that aren't coming back to Michigan," and proposing federal job training plans and other remedies to compensate. Romney seized on McCain's statement as overly pessimistic and promoted instead his family heritage — "[I've] got the automobile industry in my blood veins" — as well as his being a Washington outsider who would go there and "turn Washington inside out."

In the end, McCain finished second in the primary behind Romney, gaining 30 percent of the vote to Romney's 39 percent.

Nevada and South Carolina

Nevada in polls was going to Mitt Romney 34% to 19%. But it turned out to be 51% with Ron Paul beating out John McCain for second.Republican candidate Mitt Romney campaigned hard in Nevada, while the other leading Republican candidates, John McCain and Mike Huckabee, have kept their focus on South Carolina. Nevada was not subject to the Republican party cutting in half the number of delegates the state can send to the national convention; therefore, Nevada has more delegates at stake than South Carolina. A win in Nevada would extend Romney's lead in total delegates. He was expected to benefit from Nevada's large Mormon population.

A poll ahead of the election predicted John McCain to win the election with 22 percent, followed by Rudy Giuliani (18 percent), Mike Huckabee (16 percent), Mitt Romney (15 percent), Fred Thompson (11 percent) and Ron Paul (6 percent).[2]

On January 17, Ron Paul's Nevada campaign representatives warned state GOP officials that thousands of caucus goers had been given incorrect information on where to go to caucus. The problem was fixed - via a message on the Nevada GOP website - that morning, two days before the caucus.

After coming last in this caucus, Duncan Hunter withdrew his bid for the nomination.

In South Carolina, Mike Huckabee needed a win there. RealClearPolitics reported that the average support from polls placed McCain in the lead with 26.9%, followed by Huckabee with 25.9%, Romney with 14.7%, Thompson with 14.6%, Paul with 4.4%, and Giuliani with 3.4%. Thompson started attacking Mike Huckabee heavily, questioning his conservative credentials. But in the end McCain narrowly won by 14,743. Putting McCain as the frontrunner in Florida.

Mike Huckabee giving his concession speech after the 2008 South Carolina Presidential Primary in Columbia, SC.

Fred Thompson only placed third. Later that week Fred Tompson dropped out.

Florida

Rudy Giuliani campaigned quite heavily in Florida, which he expected to use as his "launch pad" for a "strong showing" on Super Tuesday. He campaigned almost entirely in Florida, and largely ignored South Carolina and other states voting before February 5. Polls taken before the primary showed that John McCain was the slight front runner over Mitt Romney. Giuliani had been campaigning with virtually no opposition; however, following the South Carolina Republican primary, 2008, several candidates flew down to Florida to begin campaigning up to January 29 when the primary occurred. RealClearPolitics reported that the average support from polls taken in the days immediately prior to primary day placed McCain slightly in the lead with 30.7%, followed by Romney with 30.1%, Giuliani with 14.7%, Huckabee with 12.9%, and Paul with 3.6%. Former Senator Fred Thompson and Rep. Duncan Hunter, though already out of the race, still remained on the ballot in the Florida primary. John McCain narrowly won over Mitt Romney 36% to 31%, making him the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Rudy Giuliani finished in third place, and subsequently dropped out and endorsed McCain.

Super Tuesday

McCain reacts to his Super Tuesday victories during a celebration that night at the Arizona Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix.

On January 31 McCain received the endorsement of Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger and began campaigning with him. This was a key endorsement, as California was one of the Super Tuesday states, and had more delegates than any other state. The same day, Governor Rick Perry of Texas threw his support behind McCain. Perry had previously been a Giuliani supporter, while Schwarzenegger had refrained from endorsing either McCain or Giuliani because he counted both men as friends. Meanwhile, Romney, still burning about McCain's misleading Iraq withdrawal timetable charge, compared McCain to disgraced former President Richard Nixon, saying that McCain's claim was “reminiscent of the Nixon era” and that “I don’t think I want to see our party go back to that kind of campaigning.”

McCain won his home state of Arizona, taking all 53 of the state's delegates and the largest of the Super Tuesday prizes, winning nearly all of California's 173 delegates. McCain also scored wins in Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Oklahoma. Huckabee also made surprise wins in states he had polled behind in previously like Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee. Huckabee also won the first contest of Super Tuesday in West Virginia. Romney won his home state of Massachusetts. He also won Utah, Colorado, and Minnesota.

The next day, McCain appeared confident that he would be the Republican nominee. Estimates showed him with 707 delegates - nearly 60% of the total needed to win the nomination. He began to appeal to disaffected conservatives, saying ""We share the common principles and values and ideas for the future of this country based on a fundamental conservative political philosophy, which has been my record." He also suggested that the right wing of the party "calm down a little bit" and begin to look for areas of agreement. Meanwhile, Romney advisers privately expressed doubts about whether their candidate could realistically hope to defeat McCain, and it was unclear if Romney would spend significant money on key February 12 contests in Virginia and Maryland.

Romney drops his bid at CPAC

Both McCain and Romney addressed the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, DC on February 7, while Mike Huckabee spoke on February 9. Romney used his speech to announce the end of his campaign, saying, "Now if I fight on in my campaign, all the way to the convention -- (cheers, applause). I want you to know I've given this a lot of thought. I'd forestall the launch of a national campaign and, frankly, I'd be making it easier for Senator Clinton or Obama to win. Frankly, in this time of war, I simply cannot let my campaign be a part of aiding a surrender to terror." McCain spoke about an hour later, again appealing to right-wing uncertainty about his ideology. He focused on his opposition to abortion and gun control, as well as his support for lower taxes and free-market health care solutions. He told the CPAC audience that he arrived in Washington as "a foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution", and addressed the issue of illegal immigration - one of the major issues where conservatives have attacked McCain. He said that "it would be among my highest priorities to secure our borders first", before addressing other immigration laws. Mike Huckabee spoke to CPAC two days later and said, "I know that there was some speculation that I might come here today to announce that I would be getting out of the race. But I want to make sure you understand. Am I quitting? Well, let's get that settled right now. No, I'm not. And the reason is simple -- because I go back to that which helped crystallize in me a conservative viewpoint as a teenager when it wasn't easy or popular to be a Republican or a conservative in my hometown, because I do believe that America is about making choices, not simply echoing that of others. Let others join the "Me, too" crowd. But I didn't get where I am today and I didn't fight the battles in a state that, when I became its governor, was 90 percent Democrat, by simply echoing the voices of others. I did it by staking out a choice, stating that choice, making that choice and fighting for that choice, to believe that some things were right, some things were wrong, and it's better to be right and even to not win than it is to be wrong and to be a part of the crowd."

More February contests

February 9 saw voting in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington state. Huckabee won an easy victory in Kansas, claiming all 36 of the state's delegates to the national convention. Only 14,016 votes were cast, and the McCain campaign expressed no concern over the lightly attended caucus. However, social conservatives had a strong presence in the Kansas Republican party, and the results served to highlight conservative dissatisfaction with the Senator. Louisiana was much closer, but Huckabee won there as well, beating McCain by less than one percentage point. McCain was declared the winner of the Washington caucuses, where 18 delegates were at stake. The February 19 primary would determine the other 19 delegates from the state. When McCain was declared the winner of the caucuses, with a lead of only 242 (3,468 to 3,226) over Huckabee and counting stopped with only 87% of the precints reporting, Huckabee's campaign indicated that they would challenge the results.

Next up was the Potomac primary on February 12, with voting in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. McCain swept the three races and took all 113 delegates which were at stake. The next day, the McCain camp released a memo calling a Huckabee win "mathematically impossible". In truth, however, it was not impossible. In fact, if Huckabee failed to reach 1191 delegates but succeeded in keeping McCain from reaching 1191, then the result would have been a brokered convention.

With the media declaring McCain the "presumptive nominee", McCain began to focus on the Democrats, particularly leading candidate Barack Obama, in anticipation of the general election.

The day after McCain's Potomac sweep, the Kansas City Star published a list of people who have been mentioned as possible McCain running mates, if he secured the nomination.

On February 14, Mitt Romney officially endorsed McCain and asked his approximately 280 delegates to support him at the national convention. If all or most of Romney's delegates backed McCain, it would give him nearly enough to win the nomination, with several large states still yet to vote. Despite these developments, Huckabee vowed to stay in the race. "I may get beat, but I’m not going to quit," he said. A few days later, McCain was endorsed by former President George H.W. Bush, in a move intended to shore up his support among base party elements.

On February 19, McCain continued his winning ways, picking up wins over Huckabee in the Wisconsin primary and the Washington state primary.McCain and Barack Obama engaged in a pointed exchange over Al-Qaeda in Iraq on February 27.

Alleged inappropriate involvement with lobbyists

Main articles: John McCain lobbyist controversy and Criticism of The New York Times § McCain article criticism

On February 20 2008, The New York Times broke a story involving a possible romantic affair eight years earlier between McCain and lobbyist Vicki Iseman, both of whom deny the allegations. The relationship allegedly existed during McCain's 2000 presidential campaign. In separate interviews with The New York Times, two former associates of McCain said they "became convinced" that a romantic relationship existed and warned him that he was risking his campaign and his political career. Both said McCain acknowledged behaving inappropriately and that he pledged to keep his distance from Iseman. The associates (whose names were not indentified) said they had become disillusioned with the senator, spoke independently of each other and provided details that were corroborated by others.

A McCain spokesperson characterized the story as a "hit and run smear campaign" and "gutter politics" and went on to say, "It is a shame that the New York Times has lowered its standards [...]" Subsequent reports, however, have contradicted McCain's account of the events.

The closeness of the relationship recalls McCain's earlier and continued contacts with corporate lobbyists including Charles Keating, Richard Davis, and Charlie Black. Black and Davis, like Iseman, are telcom lobbyists. Davis ran McCain's previous presidential campaign and Black is a senior advisor to McCain's 2008 campaign.

March contests - Wrapping up Republican nomination

President George W. Bush and Senator McCain at the White House March 5, 2008 following McCain's March 4 primary sweep.

CNN had cancelled a debate originally scheduled for February 28th, saying that McCain was the "presumptive nominee". Mike Huckabee challenged John McCain to a debate before the March 4 primaries, and the Values Voter coalition came through in the clutch, arranging for a debate hall and inviting both McCain and Huckabee, as well as Rep Ron Paul to participate in a March 3 debate event. After Governor Huckabee had accepted the invitation, Senator McCain said that he had a prior commitment and begged off. Huckabee had previous success with rural and Evangelical Christian voters. Huckabee was endorsed by Dr. James Dobson. McCain received an endorsement from Pastor John Hagee (which he later renounced on May 22nd). On March forth, Super Tuesday 2, McCain managed to win a large number of Evangelical voters along with his usual independent and veteran supporters. John McCain officially clinched the Republican presidential nomination on March 4 2008, sweeping the primaries in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island, and Vermont. That night, Mike Huckabee withdrew from the race and endorsed McCain.

2008 Republican presidential primaries delegate count
As of March 26 2008

Candidates	Actual pledged delegates1 (1,547 of 1,917)	Estimated total delegates2 (1,868 of 2,380; 1,191 needed to win)
John McCain	1,162	1,325
Ron Paul	-	21
Mike Huckabee	232	267
Mitt Romney	-	255
	Color key: 1st place 2nd place Candidate has withdrawn
Sources: 1 "Primary Season Election Results". The New York Times. (regularly updated). {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help) 2 "Election Center 2008 - Republican Delegate Scorecard". CNN. (regularly updated). {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)

Early primaries and caucuses

Date	State	Type	District level delegates	At-large delegates	State party delegates	Bonus delegates	Total size of delegation	Delegate selection process
January 3 2008	Iowa	caucus	15	10	3	12	40	County/state convention
January 5 2008	Wyoming	convention	3	10	3	12	12/28 [12/14] Note	County/state convention
January 8 2008	New Hampshire	primary	6	10	3	5	24 [12] Note	Statewide proportional
January 15 2008	Michigan	primary	45	10	3	2	60 [30] Note	District-level winner-take-all (WTA) + at-large/bonus proportional
January 19 2008	Nevada	caucus	9	10	3	12	34	County/state convention
	South Carolina	primary, open	18	10	3	16	47 [24] Note	District-level WTA + at-large/bonus WTA
January 22 2008	Louisiana	caucus, closed non-binding, just selection of district delegates	21	0	0	0	21/57	District by state convention + at-large/bonus by state convention unless 50%+ threshold met. Non-binding caucus to avoid stripping.
January 25-February 5 2008	Hawaii	caucus, closed	6	10	3	1	20	state convention
January 29 2008	Florida	primary, closed	75	10	3	26	114 [57] Note	Statewide WTA
February 1-February 3 2008	Maine	caucus, closed	6	10	3	2	21	District/state convention

GOP February 5 rule

Under Republican National Committee rules, no state may hold its primary before February 5. Five states - Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida - moved their primaries ahead and were subsequently stripped of one-half of their apportioned delegates by the RNC. This punishment is in contrast to Democratic procedures that stripped all delegates from offending states Michigan and Florida. The Republican rules did not affect Iowa, Nevada and Louisiana, because those states do not technically choose their delegates until district or state conventions that occur after February 5. The Iowa county and state conventions are scheduled to be held on March 15 and June 14 2008 respectively. The Nevada state convention is scheduled for April 26 2008. The Louisiana caucuses selected 105 state-delegates to the state convention on February 16 in Baton Rouge.

Super Tuesday

Many states have moved the dates of their primaries or caucuses up to February 5 (Super Tuesday). With almost half the nation voting on that date it acts as a quasi-"National Primary". This has also been dubbed "Super Duper Tuesday," and "Tsunami Tuesday".

State	Type	District-level delegates	At-large delegates	State party delegates	Bonus delegates	Total size of delegation	Delegate selection process
Alabama	primary, open	21	10	3	14	48	modified WTA district + proportional at-large/bonus
Alaska	caucus, closed	3	10	3	13	29	District/state convention
Arizona	presidential preference election	24	10	3	16	53	Statewide WTA
Arkansas	primary, open	12	10	3	9	34	modified WTA district + proportional at-large/bonus (WTA if 50%+)
California	primary, closed	159	10	3	1	173	WTA district + WTA at-large/bonus
Colorado	caucus, closed	21	10	3	12	46	district/state convention
Connecticut	primary, closed	15	10	3	2	30	Statewide WTA
Delaware	primary, closed	3	10	3	2	18	Statewide WTA
Georgia	primary, open	39	10	3	20	72	WTA district + WTA at-large/bonus
Illinois	presidential preference primary+delegate election, open	57	10	3	0	70	District delegate election + unpledged state delegates
Massachusetts	primary, modified open	30	10	3	0	43	statewide proportional
Minnesota	caucus, open	24	10	3	4	41	BPOU/district/state convention
Missouri	primary, open	27	10	3	18	58	statewide WTA
Montana	invited caucus	3	10	3	9	25	Statewide WTA
New Jersey	primary, modified open	39	10	3	0	52	Statewide WTA
New York	primary, closed	87	10	3	1	101	Statewide WTA
North Dakota	caucus, closed	3	10	3	10	26	Statewide Proportional
Oklahoma	primary, closed	15	10	3	13	41	district WTA + at-large/bonus WTA
Tennessee	primary, open	27	10	3	15	55	District proportional (WTA 50%+) + At-large/bonus proportional (WTA 50%+)
Utah	primary, modified open	9	10	3	14	36	Statewide WTA
West Virginia	convention, modified open	9	10	3	8	18/30	multiple ballot WTA
Totals		627	210	63	181	1,069/1,081

Beyond Super Tuesday

Date	State	Type	District-Level Delegates	At-Large Delegates	State Party Delegates	Bonus Delegates	Total Size of Delegation	Delegate Selection Process
February 9 2008	Kansas	caucus, closed	12	10	3	14	39	district WTA + at-large/state party/bonus WTA
	Washington	caucus	27	10	3	0	18 of 40	county/state convention
	Louisiana	primary	0	20	3	13	20 of 57	WTA if 50%+ threshold met, otherwise uncommitted
February 12 2008	District of Columbia	primary	0	16	3	0	19	DC-wide WTA
	Maryland	primary	24	10	3	0	37	District WTA + at-large WTA
	Virginia	primary	33	10	3	17	63	Statewide WTA
February 19 2008	Wisconsin	primary	24	10	3	3	40	district WTA + at-large/bonus/party WTA
	Washington	primary	27	10	3	0	19 of 40	district WTA + proportional at-large
February 23 2008	American Samoa	caucus	0	6	3	0	9	county/state convention
	Northern Mariana Islands	caucus	0	6	3	0	9	county/state convention
February 24 2008	Puerto Rico	caucus	0	20	3	0	23	Puerto Rico-wide WTA
March 4 2008	Ohio	primary	54	10	3	21	88	District WTA + at-large WTA
	Rhode Island	primary	6	10	3	1	20	Delegate names on ballot
	Texas	open primary	96	10	3	31	140	district modified WTA + statewide WTA if 50%+
	Vermont	primary	3	10	3	1	17	Statewide WTA
March 8 2008	Guam	caucus	0	6	3	0	9	county/state convention
March 11 2008	Mississippi	primary	12	10	3	14	39	District WTA + at-large/bonus WTA
April 5 2008	U.S. Virgin Islands	caucus	0	6	3	0	9	county/state convention
April 22 2008	Pennsylvania	primary	57	10	3	4	74	district delegate selection + unpledged at-large/party delegates
May 6 2008	Indiana	primary	27	10	3	17	57
	North Carolina	primary	39	10	3	17	69
May 13 2008	Nebraska	primary	9	10	3	11	33
May 20 2008	Kentucky	primary	18	10	3	14	45
	Oregon	primary	15	10	3	2	30
May 27 2008	Idaho	primary	6	10	3	13	32
June 3 2008	South Dakota	primary	3	10	3	11	27
	New Mexico	primary	9	10	3	10	32
							988

Results

Main article: Results of the 2008 Republican presidential primaries

Opinion polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2008