2007 Australian federal election
 | This article documents a current event. Information may change rapidly as the event progresses, and initial news reports may be unreliable. The latest updates to this article may not reflect the most current information. (November 2007) |
| Federal election major party leaders | |||||
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| < 2001 2004 2007 | |||||
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The 2007 election for the federal Parliament of Australia, in which 13.6 million Australians were enrolled to vote, took place on Saturday 24 November, after a 6-week campaign.[1]
The opposition centre-left Australian Labor Party, led by Kevin Rudd and deputy leader Julia Gillard, won the election against the incumbent centre-right coalition government, led by Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister John Howard and Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Mark Vaile, who had been in power since the 1996 election.[2] The following tables are votes counted so far[3][4] by the AEC and seat predictions[2][5] by the ABC:
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Predicted Seats |
Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | 4,540,403 | 43.95 | +6.31 | 86 | +26 | |
| Liberal Party of Australia | 3,728,351 | 36.09 | -4.38 | 52 | –23 | |
| Australian Greens | 783,821 | 7.59 | +0.40 | 0 | 0 | |
| National Party of Australia | 561,075 | 5.43 | –0.46 | 10 | –2 | |
| Family First Party | 203,971 | 1.97 | –0.04 | 0 | 0 | |
| Australian Democrats | 70,742 | 0.68 | –0.56 | 0 | 0 | |
| Independents | 229,786 | 2.22 | -0.24 | 2 | –1 | |
| Other | 213,436 | 2.07 | -0.77 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 10,331,585 | 150 | ||||
| Australian Labor Party | WIN | 53.24 | +5.98 | 86 | +26 | |
| Liberal/National coalition | 46.76 | –5.98 | 62 | –25 |
Independents: Tony Windsor, Bob Katter
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Predicted Seats |
Seats Held | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | 3,995,775 | 40.73 | +5.71 | 18 | 32 | |
| Liberal/National (Joint Ticket) | 2,957,693 | 30.15 | –4.08 | 9 | ||
| Australian Greens | 884,847 | 9.02 | +1.35 | 3 | 5 | |
| Liberal Party of Australia | 869,130 | 8.86 | -1.54 | 8 | 32 | |
| Family First Party | 162,839 | 1.66 | –0.10 | 0 | 1 | |
| Australian Democrats | 124,254 | 1.27 | –0.82 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pauline's UAP | 107,285 | 1.09 | * | 0 | 0 | |
| Country Liberal Party | 30,088 | 0.31 | –0.04 | 1 | 1 | |
| National Party of Australia | 16,146 | 0.16 | +0.05 | 0 | 4 | |
| Other | 662,711 | 6.75 | –1.62 | 1 | 1 | |
| Total | 9,810,768 | 40 | 76 |
Independents: Nick Xenophon
Results
House results
Latest predictions reveal Labor on-track to hold 86 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives, currently on about a 3.3 percent two party preferred vote.[6][2] This represents around 28 seats changing hands,[7] with a few seats remaining in doubt.[8] If this result holds, it will be Labor's best official two party preferred vote ever, just ahead of Bob Hawke's 53.23 percent two-party vote in 1983. The two party preferred swing is the highest since two of Gough Whitlam's election contests.
At 10.29pm Eastern Standard time Peter Costello conceded that the Coalition had lost government. At 10.36pm, John Howard delivered a speech at the Sofitel in Sydney to conceed defeat. He accepted full responsibility for the coalition's defeat. At 11.05pm, Kevin Rudd delivered his victory speech.
Sky News-Channel 7-Auspoll exit polls of 2,787 voters in the 31 most marginal seats suggested a 53 percent two-party preferred figure to Labor, 53 percent to Labor in Bennelong, and 58 percent to Labor in Eden-Monaro.[9] Key issue questions swung Labor's way.[10]
The Australian Broadcasting Corporation projects that Howard will lose his own seat in Bennelong, which he has held since 1974, to Labor challenger Maxine McKew. Should he lose to McKew, it will be only the second time in Australia's history that a sitting Prime Minister has lost his seat in an election and also the first time in which a Labor member will sit in Parliament for Bennelong, which has been known to be a Liberal-sided electorate. The two-party/two-candidate preferred vote in this seat is 2.4 percent in McKew's favour — a 5.8 percent swing from 2004 — with 79.1 percent of the ballots counted. This swing is within the current boundaries; Bennelong was redistributed after the 2004 election. [11] In his concession speech, Howard said it was "very likely" that McKew had defeated him,[12] though he and McKew both agree the margin is very tight.[13] McKew has expressed her strong belief that Labor has won Bennelong, but has stopped short of declaring herself MP-elect.[14] However, ABC election analyst Antony Green has called Bennelong for Labor.[15] Howard would be only the second Australian prime minister to be defeated in his own electorate, the first being Stanley Bruce in 1929. Five other ministers were defeated — Mal Brough, Peter Dutton, De-Anne Kelly, Gary Nairn and Teresa Gambaro.
Senate results
Both Labor and the coalition are expected to win 18 seats each in the Senate. The Greens are expected to win three seats, with independent Nick Xenophon being elected on primary votes alone. This would bring the 76-member Senate total to 37 coalition, 32 Labor, 5 Green, 1 Family First, and 1 independent. This means the balance of power would rest with both Xenophon and Family First's Steve Fielding along with the five Greens when new Senators take their seats in mid-2008.
Projected senate results by State/Territory:[5]
- NSW: 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
- Vic: 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
- Qld: 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
- WA: 2 ALP, 3 Coalition, 1 Greens
- SA: 2 ALP, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens, 1 Independent
- Tas: 3 ALP, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens
- ACT: 1 ALP, 1 Coalition
- NT: 1 ALP, 1 Coalition
On these predictions, the Greens gain 1 (losing Kerry Nettle in NSW but gaining Sarah Hanson-Young in SA and Scott Ludlam in WA), there is one new Independent (Xenophon), and Labor gains 4. The Coalition loses 2, and the Democrats lose all 4 of their seats.
Post-election
After attending church with his family at Bulimba, Queensland, on Sunday 25 November 2007, Rudd announced that the new Ministry would be sworn in on Thursday 29 November 2007.[16]
Following his loss at the election, Howard announced that he would retire immediately, and the Liberal Party is currently in the process of nominating a new leader. Peter Costello, who was originally selected by Howard to replace him in the event of his retirement, has stated that he would not run for Liberal leadership.[17] Current minister running for the title include Defence Minister Brendan Nelson, former Environmental Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Health Minister Tony Abbott.[18] Former Education Minister Julie Bishop has yet to announce if she will run.
Seats likely to change hands
The following table indicates seats that the ABC computer predicts will change hands at this election based on counting and projections.[19] Bowman, Cowan, Dickson, Herbert, La Trobe, Macarthur, McEwen, Robertson and Solomon are considered "in doubt".[20]
Key dates
- Prorogation of Parliament: 12 noon, 15 October[21]
- Dissolution of House of Representatives: 12 noon, 17 October[22]
- Issue of electoral writs: 17 October
- Close of rolls (if not currently on roll): 8 p.m., 17 October[23]
- Close of rolls (if currently on roll and updating details): 8 p.m., 23 October
- Close of nominations: 12 noon, 1 November
- Declaration of nominations: 12 noon, 2 November
- Polling Day: 24 November[24][25]
- Return of writs: On or before 25 January 2008[26]
- First meeting of the 42nd Parliament: On or before 24 February 2008[27]
- New state senators begin their terms: 1 July 2008 (the terms of territory senators start 24 November 2007).
Under the provisions of the Constitution, the current House of Representatives may continue for a maximum of three years from the first meeting of the House after the previous federal election. The first meeting of the 41st Parliament after the 2004 election was on 16 November 2004, hence the parliament would have expired on 15 November 2007 had it not been dissolved earlier. There must be a minimum of 33 days and a maximum of 68 days between the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the day of the election.[28] Prime Minister Howard opted for a 39-day campaign.
The Prime Minister of the day chooses the election date and requests the Governor-General to dissolve the House and issue the writs for the election. On 14 October, John Howard gained the agreement of the Governor-General, Major-General Michael Jeffery, to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election for the House and half the Senate on 24 November 2007.[29]
The last date of voter enrollment or update of enrollment information was reduced from 7 days to 1 working day during the last term of parliament. When the election was announced, the writ was not issued the next day, but on the following Wednesday. This kept the roll open for three days, during which 77,000 enrolment additions were processed.[30]
Polling
Roy Morgan, Newspoll, ACNeilsen and Galaxy timegraph polling shows Labor leading the coalition in responses to a number of key poll questions since mid-2006, with Labor consolidating its lead after Rudd assumed the Labor leadership, at which point Rudd also assumed the polling position on the question of preferred Prime Minister.
ACNielsen polling in March 2007 had Rudd's personal approval rating at 67 percent, which made him the most popular opposition leader in the poll's 35-year history,[31] with Newspoll (News Limited) 2PP polling the highest in its history. The largest 2PP election result for the ALP in its history was at the 1943 election on an estimate of 58.2 percent.
A weighted collaboration of all polling since Rudd assumed the ALP leadership shows an average Labor 2PP figure of 57 percent compared with the coalition's 43 percent,[32] and Rudd's consistent outpolling of Howard as preferred Prime Minister, something not achieved under previous leaders Mark Latham, Kim Beazley or Simon Crean.
Possums Pollytics, an anonymous weblog, stated that due to the uneven nature of the swings, where safe Liberal seats were swinging up to 14.6 percent with safe Labor seats swinging around only 4.1 percent, the Labor party stood to potentially end up with a maximum of 106 of the 150 lower house seats.[33]
Polling consistently showed that the economy and national security are the Coalition's strong areas. In August 2007 an Ipsos poll showed 39 percent of voters thought Labor was a better economic manager, compared to 36 percent for the coalition, with 25 percent undecided.[34]
The morning of the election announcement, a special Sun-Herald Taverner survey of 979 people across New South Wales and Victoria had been released, indicating a Labor 2PP of 59 percent, with the 18-29 year old category voting at 72 percent.[35] The fortnightly Newspoll was released the day after the election was called, showing the 2PP remaining steady at Labor 56-44 Liberal. Howard increased his Preferred PM rating up one percent to 39 percent, while Rudd increased his rating up one percent to 48 percent. On the day after the election was called, Centrebet had odds of 1.47 on Labor, with 2.70 on the coalition.[36] Half way through the campaign, with no overall change in the polls, saw Centrebet odds for Labor shorten to 1.29, with the Liberals on 3.60.[37] Centrebet odds two days out from the election were at 1.22 for Labor, with 4.35 for the coalition.
Newspoll a week out from the election of 3,600 voters in 18 of the coalition's most marginal seats revealed an ALP 54-46 coalition 2PP, a swing to Labor of 6-9 percent. A uniform swing would see 18-25 seats fall to Labor, The Australian said.[38]
Former Labor number-cruncher Graham Richardson, who news.com.au (News Limited) claims to have correctly picked the winner of every election for the past three decades, has tipped Kevin Rudd and Labor to win with a 6-7 percent two party preferred, 20 seat swing.[39]
Peter Day, an ex-The Australian journalist, stated two days before the election that, if the coalition were re-elected, it would be "the biggest polling embarrassment in any developed country since Truman beat Dewey in 1948".[40]
The election-eve Newspoll and Galaxy poll reported the ALP on a 2PP of 52 percent, Roy Morgan on 54.5, with ACNielsen on 57 percent. Seven News reported that TAB had updated their odds for the election, with Labor having safe odds of $1.20 and the Coalition an outside chance on $4.60.
Issues
Roy Morgan polling in June 2007 revealed WorkChoices as the biggest reason behind the Labor vote, with a fear of union dominance and support for coalition economic management policy as the biggest reasons behind the coalition vote.[47] Attempts by the Liberal Party to have business groups fund advertisements to counter anti-WorkChoices advertisements suggested that industrial relations would be a key battleground at the 2007 election.[48] The share of voters concerned about industrial relations grew from 31 percent to 53 percent in the two years to June 2006, with around three fifths of voters backing Labor's ability to handle the issue over the Liberal Party.[49]
A Newspoll released in June 2006 identified health and Medicare as the most important issue for voters, with 83 percent of respondents rating it "very important". Other key issues included education (79 percent), the economy (67 percent), the environment (60 percent) and national security (60 percent). Taxation and interest rates, key issues in previous campaigns, were rated very important by 54 percent and 51 percent respectively. Immigration, a key issue in 2001, scored 43 percent. The poll showed that voters considered Labor better-placed to handle health and education, albeit by a small margin, but gave the government strong backing on the economy and national security.[49]
The environment, in particular climate change and water management, were a major issue. Labor's pledge to spearhead construction of a $4.7 billion fibre-to-the-node broadband network suggested that infrastructure would also figure prominently on the campaign trail.[50]
On 7 June in a speech promoting the government's handling of the economy, Treasurer Peter Costello recalled the learner driver slogan of the 2004 election: "This [the economy] is like a highly engineered racing car and I tell you what, I wouldn't be putting an L-plate driver in the cockpit at the moment".[51] August 2007 saw a 0.25 percent interest rate rise to 6.5 percent, the fifth rise since the last election. Labor used the news to argue that the Coalition could not be trusted to keep interest rates low, while Costello argued that interest rates would be higher under Labor.[52] Inflation figures released on 24 October indicated underlying inflation was higher than expected, which resulted in seven of eight financial companies believing there will be an interest rate rise when the reserve bank met in the middle of November, the first during an election campaign.[53]
Rudd advocated four-year fixed terms for federal parliaments if elected. Howard supported four-year terms but opposed fixed election dates. Any change would require approval by referendum.[54] Another referendum was suggested by John Howard on the eve of the election campaign, in order to include a statement of reconciliation to be included in the preamble of the constitution.[55]
The campaign
Week 1 - tax cuts give the Coalition the early initiative
John Howard announced the election at a press conference in Canberra on Sunday 14 October, after meeting the Governor-General at Government House. His theme concentrated on leadership, stating that the nation "does not need new leadership, it does not need old leadership. It needs the right leadership". He also stated that his government would strive to achieve full employment, something he argued was less likely to eventuate under Kevin Rudd.[56] In his response, Rudd also concentrated on leadership, outlining his case for "new leadership”. He argued that the government had 'lost touch' with the electorate, and that his party was best suited to deal with challenges that lie ahead. The Liberals other slogan, "go for growth" was launched after announcing the largest tax cut in Australian history.[57][58] Newspaper columnists have portrayed the election campaign interest rate rise as "not factored into campaign strategy" when deciding on the slogan.[59]
On the first full day of the campaign, Howard and Costello announced a 'major restructuring of the income tax system' with tax cuts worth $35 billion over three years and a tax cut "goal" for the next five years.[60] A few days later, Rudd released his alternative policy which supported the reform measures, however offered education and health tax rebates instead of immediate cuts to the top rate as proposed by the Liberal Party, instead favouring a slower progression for the top rate.[61]
During the latter part of the week attention was drawn to the question of union influence over the ALP after the launch of the Liberal party's first campaign ads. Labor responded with commercials attacking the Liberal's campaign as 'smears'. This was disputed by John Howard. One of the Liberal Party election commercials had to be corrected after it falsely accused Wayne Swan and Craig Emerson of previously being union officials.[62]
The week saw contradictory poll results in terms of the scale of Labor's lead. Galaxy showed a Labor 53-47 Coalition 2PP result, with a 2 percent gap on primaries,[63] while ACNeilsen saw a two percent swing to the coalition, reducing Labor's lead to 54-46. Rudd took a five-point dive on the question of preferred Prime Minister. However, a Newspoll sampling 1700 voters taken over the weekend prior to the debate saw a swing to Labor, increasing their 2PP lead to 58 percent, a rise of two percent. Labor's primary vote was up three to 51 percent, with the Liberals down two to 34 percent. Rudd extended his lead by two percent to 50 percent, with Howard down by two percent to 37 percent.[64]
Leaders' debate
- See The Great Debate 2007 with the Worm in full.
A debate between the Leader of the Opposition and the Prime Minister, under the moderation of the National Press Club, was shown live on ABC TV, the Nine Network, and Sky News Australia at 7.30pm on 21 October. 2.4 million Australians watched the event, with Nine averaging 1.42 million, the ABC averaging 907,000, and Sky News averaging 62,000. Nine's program was only the third most watched show of the night after National Bingo Night on Seven (1.56 million) and a repeat episode of Kath and Kim, also on Seven (1.48 million.) The last election debate in 2004 pulled in 1.77 million on Nine and the ABC, while in 2001, average audiences on Nine, Seven and the ABC totalled 2.44 million.[65][66]
David Speers, Sky News's political editor, moderated the debate which was held in the Great Hall of Parliament House. The debate audience was 400, with the Coalition and Labor each selecting 200. Nine had a separate group of 80 purportedly 'swinging' voters (chosen by McNair Research) in its studio to control 'the Worm'. Steps were taken to ensure equal numbers so as not to taint the Worm. At one point, Peter Costello was reprimanded for interjecting.[67]
The Nine Network, which broadcast the debate as an extended edition of 60 Minutes, attracted controversy for using the Worm in its broadcast despite prior objections from the Liberal Party and action from the National Press Club to cease its video feed. As a result, the Nine Network's feed was cut part of the way into the broadcast, which it replaced with Sky News's coverage.[68] The Nine television network's live audience, via the Worm's average, scored the debate 65 to 29 in Rudd's favour,[69] with 6 percent remaining undecided. Both sides, however, claimed victory.[70]
Kevin Rudd used part of the debate to argue that the Liberal Party was being influenced by the H. R. Nicholls Society to make further reforms to industrial relations, citing Nick Minchin's attendance to last year's H. R. Nicholls Society conference, where he told the audience that the coalition "knew its reform to WorkChoices were not popular but the process of change must continue",[71] and that "there is still a long way to go... awards, the IR commission, all the rest of it..."[72] Countering the Liberal Party message that 70 percent of Labor's front bench is made up of former union officials, Rudd stated that 70 percent of Liberal Party ministers were either lawyers or former Liberal Party staffers.[73]
Week 2 - climate change comes to the fore
Inflation figures were released on Tuesday, showing stronger than expected underlying inflation of 3 percent, a key indicator for the Reserve Bank.[74] In arguing that there was no case for an increase in interest rates, Treasurer Peter Costello described underlying inflation as one of several "technical measures", and that the overall annual headline CPI increase of 1.9 percent showed that the economy was running smoothly.[75] However, some economists criticised this outlook for glossing over the underlying inflation figures.[76]
Controversy arose over the Coalition's climate change policy, with The Financial Review citing "government sources" who claimed Turnbull told Cabinet six weeks ago it should sign the Kyoto Protocol. Neither Howard nor Turnbull denied the story. The story said that "internal critics" are claiming Turnbull is "selfishly positioning himself for a Coalition defeat" and a "possible post-poll leadership battle with Treasurer Peter Costello". The story led to claims of major splits in Cabinet.[77]
Labor also suffered from mixed messages. Kevin Rudd was compelled to clarify Labor policy on climate change after an interview in which Peter Garrett suggested Labor would sign up to the post-Kyoto agreement at 2012 even if carbon-emitting developing countries did not. Rudd's comments, which he described as having "always been [Labor's] position", saw Labor's policy move closer to Liberal policy, insofar as Labor would ratify the agreement only after persuading all major carbon emitters, developing and developed, to ratify.[78][79][80] Rudd also committed Labor to a target of a 20 percent reduction in emissions by 2020, a 5 percent increase on the Liberal target, assisted by the use of renewable energy, but without the use of clean coal, arguing that it would ultimately be a benefit, not a detriment to the economy.
Week 3 - Costello and Swan debate, and gaffes by Garrett and Abbott
Debate on climate change policy continued, with John Howard stating the Coalition would not match the Labor's promise of 20 percent renewable energy target. Howard claimed Labor's policy "imposes too many additional costs to industry". Peter Garrett replied that lack of government action has cost jobs.[81] It was also reported that a recommendation by Howard's Environment Minister in 2005 for higher renewable energy targets, on the basis that 15 percent was insufficient, was rejected at the time. Howard declined to confirm or deny this.[82]
The Coalition announced a promise to open 50 new emergency medical centres around Australia if re-elected. Adding to the campaign trend of both major parties criticising their opponent for plagiarism and "me-tooism", Labor responded that the government had copied its policy.[83]
Peter Garrett drew criticism from the Coalition when radio announcer Steve Price, revealed Garrett said, in conversation with a third party, "once we get in we'll just change it all" in reference to copying Coalition policies. Garrett acknowledged making the comment during a "short, jocular and casual" conversation. The third party to the conversation, Richard Wilkins, supported Garrett's view, saying that it was a "light-hearted throwaway line".[84]
Tim Costello, director of World Vision Australia and Peter Costello's brother, criticised Australia's overseas aid ranking at 19th of 22 OECD countries and government unwillingness to match Labor's commitment of overseas aid of 0.5 percent of national GDP.[85] Howard said his party planned to lift the rate to 3.5 percent, despite the Coalition's policy of 0.35 percent.[86]
Commentators pronounced Peter Costello and Wayne Swan's debate on October 30 as ending in a draw. Costello focused mainly on the government's past record, advocating the need for Australia to build into the future, while Swan said Labor were interested in "investing in people".[87] Howard said he believed Costello "creamed" his opponent, while Rudd said Swan did a "fantastic job".[88]
Liberal Tony Abbott and Labor's Nicola Roxon publicly debated health at the National Press Club on ABC television. Abbott's character and ministerial capacity were questioned by Roxon for insulting dying asbestos campaigner Bernie Banton and arriving 35 minutes late to debate. At the end of the debate, Abbott's swearing at Ms Roxon drew attention when she claimed he "could have arrived on time" if he had "really wanted to", a comment which Abbott described as "bullshit".[89][90][91][92] Former Liberal campaign strategist Sue Cato stated "you just don't run late for things like that".[93] Abbott did apologise to Mr Banton but refused to apologise to Ms Roxon.[94]
Week 4 - an interest rate rise bites and debates on WorkChoices and the environment
In an election campaign first, the Reserve Bank of Australia adjusted the interest rate upwards by another 0.25 percent, the sixth rise since the last election, to a 10-year high of 6.75 percent.[95][96] The Coalition used the figures to argue that that only the current government had the proper experienced team to manage the economy in future, less prosperous years. [97] Costello argued that the inflationary reasons for the rate rise were "outside the control of a Government".[98] In response, Labor accused the Coalition of having "hauled up the white flag in the fight against inflation", saying that they had backflipped from their past statements that they could keep interest rates low.[99] Howard stated that he was sorry for the negative consequences for and burden on Australian borrowers,[100] but subsequently denied that this constituted an apology for the rate rise itself.[101]
Two debates were held during the week at the National Press Club in Canberra. On November 7 Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey and Labor's Julia Gillard debated industrial relations including WorkChoices. After an interest rate rise of .25 percent earlier in the morning Hockey argued that Labor's policy to scrap Workchoices was the Australia's biggest threat to inflation.[102] On November 8 Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull and opposition spokesman Peter Garrett debated issues relating to the environment. Garrett attacked the government's record on climate change to which Turnbull retaliated that Garrett's current claims betray his previous career as a political activist.[103]
On November 10, the Australian Democrats held their campaign launch in Melbourne.[104]
Week 5 - Labor and Coalition campaign launches and regional grants program rorts reported
Both major party election campaign official launches took place in Brisbane, Queensland, with the Liberal Party on Monday November 12[105] and the Labor Party on Wednesday November 14.[106]
The coalition pledged a rebate for education costs, including private school fees, of all Australian children, totalling $9.4 billion. Primary school students will be eligible for $400 whilst secondary school students will be eligible for $800. Also offered were tax breaks worth $1.6 billion over four years in attempts to encourage people to save for first homes, $652 million for child care, and $158 million to support carers.[107]
The Labor Party committed to a quarter of the $9.4 billion spending in an attempt to keep inflation down, accusing the Howard government of being "irresponsible". Rudd committed Labor to an additional 65,000 apprenticeships, all schools to be migrated to new high speed broadband, and all year 9-12 students to have access to their own computer, in addition to previous education reimbursement funding announcements. Also announced were a doubling of the number of undergraduate and postgraduate scholarships available at a tertiary level, as well as re-iterating the party's view on climate change and WorkChoices.[108]
The Labor Party released footage on Thursday November 15 to Lateline, showing amateur civilian footage of Tony Abbott addressing a room of people, stating "I accept that certain protections, in inverted commas, are not what they were" in reference to the contentious WorkChoices legislation. In reference to award structures, Abbott went on to say "I accept that that has largely gone. I accept that." Abbott stands by the comments that WorkChoices means "certain protections" are not what they used to be,[109] but at the same time denied ever conceding workers had lost protections,[110] and denounced the video released by Labor as a "cut-and-paste job".[111]
A report by the National Audit Office found that the coalition had been interfering in the $328 million regional grants program, with a bias toward their marginal seats, where projects under the Regional Partnerships Program were apparently approved without proper assessment, or none at all, and that there was a surge of approvals prior to the 2004 election.[112][113]
Week 6 - more WorkChoices controversy, a pamphlet scandal and conflicting polls
With Newspoll revealing Labor's 2PP vote down one to 54 percent, former Liberal Party campaign director Lynton Crosby said that the coalition was "closing in on Labor" in the final week and could "still win a tight election" on a campaign of defending marginal seats, declaring a win still possible on 48.5 percent of the 2PP vote.[114]
On November 20th, Prime Minister John Howard was forced to defend the federal government's substantial advertising spending in the months prior to the campaign, paid for with public money. Such advertising, covering topics including the controversial "Workchoices", cost some $360 million in less than 18 months.[115] An article in the November 20 issue of the Herald Sun suggested that spending could have been even greater, up to $500 million, though this took a broader view of what was included in that sum.
Mr Howard also came under fire for hiding documents written by his department about possible further amendments to the government's WorkChoices legislation.[116] The Seven Network had attempted to obtain the documents under Freedom of Information but were denied access. A key issue in the 2007 election is the possibility of WorkChoices being expanded, a possibility that the Coalition denied.[116] Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce stated that the possibility of him crossing the floor to support Labor's amendments to WorkChoices remained open, stating he would judge all legislation on its merits, before he was lambasted by Nationals leader Mark Vaile.[117]
Government frontbencher Andrew Robb announced that up to 13 Labor candidates standing in the election may be ineligible for nomination, citing a clause of the Constitution which states that parliamentarians are not permitted to hold an "office of profit under the crown". Robb claimed that a "search of public records" indicated that the 13 candidates may have still been employed by government agencies, boards or offices, and that the Liberal Party may consider legal challenges to their election. Labor Senator Penny Wong dismissed the claims, asserting that all Labor's candidates were eligible to stand, and that the Liberals had obtained the information from outdated websites.[118]
On 21 November, three days before the election, five people were caught in the electorate of Lindsay distributing fake pamphlets purporting to be from a nonexistent Islamic group, thanking the Labor Party for supporting the Bali bombers and encouraging people to vote for Labor. They included a member of the Liberals' state executive, Jeff Egan; Gary Clark, husband of outgoing MP Jackie Kelly; and Greg Chijoff, the husband of Lindsay candidate Karen Chijoff.[119] Kelly tried to dismiss the incident as a Chaser-style "prank"[120] but John Howard condemned the statement.[121] Egan and Greg Chijoff were immediately expelled from the Liberal Party a day before John Howard's address to the Australian Press Club;[122] nevertheless, Egan denies any wrongdoing.[121] For more details see 2007 Australian Federal Election pamphlet scandal.
Friday saw reports of 26-year old Australian commando Luke Worsley killed in Afghanistan, the third Australian killed there in two months.[123]
Election day was Saturday 24 November.
Television coverage
Election night was covered extensively, commercial-free, by three of the Australian free-to-air networks: ABC Television, the Nine Network and the Seven Network. Network Ten and SBS included brief updates and news bulletins through the night, but not to the other networks' extent. Sky News offered coverage on Pay TV.[124]
- Seven went with a new election coverage team for 2007, led by Sunrise hosts David Koch and Melissa Doyle. Their coverage was commercial-free until the result of the election was announced, and ran from 5.30 pm AEDT (with a break between 6pm to 6.30pm AEDT for Seven News), until 11.30pm AEDT. Special guests included current and former Liberal politicians Joe Hockey, Jackie Kelly, Andrew Robb and former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett. Joining them was current and former Labor politicians Tanya Plibersek, Mark Arbib and former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie. The National Party's Barnaby Joyce also joined them on the panel. Special Reporters included Anna Coren, Mark Riley and Chris Bath.
- Nine's coverage began at 5.30 pm AEDT (originally Nine said that it would start at 6.30pm AEDT after the news, however due to competition from Seven's election coverage which started at 5.30pm AEDT, Nine chose to move its coverage forward one hour), continuing throughout the night until 11.30pm AEDT. Its coverage was commercial-free until 8.30 pm AEDT.[125] It was hosted by journalist Ray Martin and Nine's political editor Laurie Oakes. Special guests included Labor politicians Senator Robert Ray and Shadow Treasurer Wayne Swan, Liberals Michael Kroger and Communications minister Helen Coonan and John Howard's biographer Peter Van Onselen with light hearted views from the tally room coming from Chaser stuntman Charles Firth. Special reporters include Peter Overton, Tracy Grimshaw and Kellie Connolly.
- The ABC's coverage began at 6 pm AEDT and ran until 11.30pm AEDT, led by Kerry O'Brien, Tony Jones and Antony Green. Special guests included Senator Nick Minchin (finance minister), representing the Coalition, and Julia Gillard (deputy ALP leader) from the ALP. Special reporters included Michael Brissenden, and other journalists with the leaders in Sydney and Brisbane. The ABC provided live crosses to key electorates around Australia.
- Sky News' coverage was hosted by David Speers in Sydney with Helen Dalley at the tally room in Canberra. Guests included former Prime Minister Bob Hawke, former Labor Leader Kim Beazley, former Liberal Leader John Hewson, and current members in Parliament, including Brendan Nelson from the Liberal Party, Natasha Stott Despoja from the Democrats, and Stephen Conroy from the Labor Party. Coverage began at 2pm AEDT in the afternoon and ended at 1 o'clock AEDT the next morning.[126]
Author John Kennedy O'Connor was commissioned by ABC National Radio's Perspective programme to report on the international media coverage of the election prior to polling day. [127]
Parties contesting the election
Below is a comprehensive list of registered parties contesting the elections for the House of Representatives and the Senate. Beside each party is the number of seats contested by that party in the House of Representatives for each state, as well as an indication of whether the party contested the Senate election in the respective state.
| Party | NSW | Vic | Qld | WA | SA | Tas | ACT | NT | Total | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR | S | HR | S | HR | S | HR | S | HR | S | HR | S | HR | S | HR | S | HR | S | |
| Australian Labor Party | 49¹ | Y | 37 | Y | 29 | Y | 15 | Y | 11 | Y | 5 | Y | 2 | Y | 2 | Y | 150 | 8 |
| Liberal Party | 40 | Y | 35 | Y | 24 | Y | 15 | Y | 11 | Y | 5 | Y | 2 | Y | 132 | 7 | ||
| Nationals | 9 | Y | 2 | Y | 10 | Y | 1 | Y | 2 | Y | 24 | 5 | ||||||
| Country Liberal Party | 2 | Y | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| The Greens | 49 | Y | 37 | Y | 29 | Y | 15 | Y | 11 | Y | 5 | Y | 2 | Y | 2 | Y | 150 | 8 |
| Family First | 32 | Y | 37 | Y | 29 | Y | 15 | Y | 11 | Y | 5 | Y | 129 | 6 | ||||
| Democrats | 12 | Y | 33 | Y | 29 | Y | Y | 11 | Y | 1 | Y | Y | 86 | 7 | ||||
| Citizens Electoral Council | 24 | Y | 22 | Y | 14 | Y | 13 | Y | Y | 5 | Y | 2 | 1 | Y | 81 | 7 | ||
| Christian Democratic Party | 44 | Y | 2 | Y | 2 | Y | 15 | Y | Y | 63 | 5 | |||||||
| Liberty and Democracy Party | 12 | Y | 8 | Y | 12 | Y | 6 | Y | 6 | Y | 2 | Y | Y | 1 | 47 | 7 | ||
| One Nation | 8 | Y | 1 | Y | 8² | Y² | 15² | Y² | 3 | Y | 35 | 5 | ||||||
| Socialist Alliance | 5 | Y | 3 | Y | 3 | Y | 3 | Y | Y | 2 | 1 | 17 | 5 | |||||
| Socialist Equality Party | 6 | Y | 2 | Y | 1 | 9 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Climate Change Coalition | 7 | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | 7 | 6 | |||||||||
| What Women Want | Y | 1 | Y | Y | 1 | Y | 2 | Y | Y | Y | 4 | 7 | ||||||
| Democratic Labor Party | Y | 4 | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | 4 | 6 | |||||||||
| Conservatives for Climate and Environment | 3 | Y | Y | Y | 1 | 4 | 3 | |||||||||||
| Non-Custodial Parents Party | 2 | Y | Y | Y | Y | 2 | 4 | |||||||||||
| Fishing Party | 1 | Y | 1 | Y | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Senator On-Line | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | 5 | ||||||||||||
| Carers Alliance | Y | Y | Y | Y | 4 | |||||||||||||
| Shooters Party | Y³ | Y | Y | Y | 4 | |||||||||||||
| Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party | Y³ | Y | Y | 3 | ||||||||||||||
| Pauline's United Australia Party | Y | Y | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| Hear Our Voice | Y | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Nuclear Disarmament Party | Y | 1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Independent and other | 41 | 18 | 26 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 106 | |||||||||
¹Includes 5 New South Wales seats contested as "Country Labor" ²Contested as "One Nation WA" in Queensland and Western Australia ³Shooters Party and AFLP contested a joint ticket in New South Wales
Electoral prospects: House of Representatives
Though the government held 87 seats in the 150-seat Australian House of Representatives prior to the election, 23 of its MPs were defending two-party-preferred (2PP) margins of 6 percent or less in 2007. Labor required a gain of 16 seats to form a majority government in the lower house, which corresponded to a uniform swing of 4.8 percent.
High-profile candidates
- Maxine McKew, former ABC journalist, contested Bennelong for Labor against Prime Minister John Howard.[128]
- Bill Shorten, former union leader and prominent figure during the Beaconsfield mine collapse incident, won the safe Labor seat of Maribyrnong for Labor.
- Greg Combet, former ACTU Secretary, won the safe Labor seat of Charlton for Labor after winning preselection ahead of incumbent Kelly Hoare.[129]
- Richard Marles, former ACTU Assistant Secretary, won Corio for Labor after winning preselection ahead of incumbent Gavan O'Connor (who ran as an independent candidate instead).
- Nicole Cornes, a Sunday Mail journalist and wife of media personality and ex-footballer Graham Cornes, failed to win Boothby for Labor from incumbent Liberal MP Andrew Southcott.
- Mia Handshin, a Young South Australian of the Year, journalist for The Advertiser and a small business operator, unsuccessfully contested Sturt for Labor against Liberal MP Minister Christopher Pyne.[130]
- Mike Kelly, former Australian soldier and lawyer, won the bellwether seat of Eden-Monaro for Labor against Liberal MP Gary Nairn.
- Peter Tinley, former SAS commander and outspoken opponent of the Iraq war, failed to win the marginal seat of Stirling for Labor against Liberal MP Michael Keenan.
- Mike Bailey, former ABC weather reporter, unsuccessfully contested North Sydney for Labor against Liberal MP Workplace Minister Joe Hockey.[131]
- Bruce Haigh, former diplomat, failed to win Parkes as an independent. Haigh encountered controversy when he used his diplomatic immunity to help black activists flee repression in South Africa.[132]
- Dr Patricia Petersen, former journalist, academic and media personality, unsuccessfully contested the seat of Warringah as an independent against Liberal MP Health Minister Tony Abbott.[133]
- Stephen Mayne, shareholder activist and crikey.com.au founder, failed to win Higgins as an independent.[134]
Redistribution
An electoral redistribution completed in September 2006 by the Australian Electoral Commission increased the size of the Queensland delegation by one, at the expense of New South Wales. The western New South Wales seat of Gwydir was abolished and a new seat of Flynn, based around Gladstone, created in its place. Both the old seat and the new were considered safe for the National Party, although in fact Labor won Flynn on an 8.9 percent swing.
The other major change saw boundaries shift for Liberal-held Macquarie and Labor-held Parramatta: both came to be notionally held by the opposing party. A number of other seats were also substantially changed, including Parkes, Farrer, Calare, Greenway and Hughes.
Marginal seats
Labor and the Coalition each held 23 marginal seats: seats with 2PP margins of 6 percent or less. The marginal seats of Makin (South Australia) and Cowan (Western Australia), held on 2PP margins of less than 1 percent by the Liberals and Labor respectively, were especially closely-watched, with sitting MPs Trish Draper and Graham Edwards retiring at the election. In the south-eastern New South Wales seat of Eden-Monaro, Liberal Gary Nairn was defending the so-called bellwether electorate for the government with a 2PP margin of 3.3 percent. The Liberal electorate of Lindsay, with a 2PP margin of 2.9 percent was another seat which was hotly contested due to popular member Jackie Kelly's announcement that she would not be recontesting the seat.
Polling prior ro the election indicated that the two Tasmanian marginal seats of Bass and Braddon, both in the state's north, were likely to return to the ALP at this election. Both seats were lost by the ALP to the government at the last election, with commentators associating this with Mark Latham's forestry policy and its lack of popularity in these seats.
In the table below, based on the Mackerras electoral pendulum, marginal seats are shown in the order they would have fallen, assuming a uniform swing. A uniform swing to Labor would have delivered the party seats on the left-hand side. A uniform swing to the Coalition would have deliver seats to the Liberals and Nationals on the right-hand side.
Electoral prospects: Senate
- For Senate ballot papers and preferences see here.
The coalition went to the election with 39 of 76 seats, a one seat majority. Labor had 28 seats, Greens four, Democrats four, and Family First one. A total of 36 senators were not up for re-election: 19 from the Coalition, 14 from Labor, two Greens and one Family First. The Coalition needed to win 20 of the 40 contested Senate seats to maintain its Senate majority, while Labor would needed to win 25 seats to have a Senate majority in its own right. A Labor majority would have required a preferred vote of over 57 percent in five of the six states; this would be a record for Labor, surpassing the 55.09 percent it recorded in the 1943 election. On polling immediately prior to the election, it appeared likely that the balance of power would revert to the minor parties.[135]
The minor parties and independents considered to have the best chance of winning Senate seats were the Australian Greens, Family First, the Pauline Hanson group and independent Nick Xenophon in South Australia.[136] The Australian Democrats, who had the greatest number of senators among the minor parties, from 1978 to 2005, were widely predicted to lose all their seats. All four Democrat seats were up for re-election, with two incumbents, Andrew Murray and Natasha Stott Despoja, deciding to retire upon the expiry of their term. The Democrats recontesting were leader Lyn Allison in Victoria and Andrew Bartlett in Queensland.[137][138][139] Other established minor parties include the Christian Democratic Party, Democratic Labor Party, Liberty & Democracy Party, and Socialist Alliance.
Minor parties contested for the sixth and final Senate spot in each state, with each group's success dependent on securing favourable preference flows from the eliminated parties and assorted micro-parties. Various parties must achieve a quota of approximately 14.3 percent to get elected and rely on 'preferences' from other parties to do so until all vacancies have been filled. 'Preference deals' in the senate are thus often controversial. The Coalition concluded a preference deal with Family First, though in New South Wales, John Howard reached an agreement with Fred Nile to direct Liberal preferences towards the Christian Democratic Party followed by Family First.[140] Labor chose instead to make a preference arrangement with the Greens.[141] One Nation preferences favoured the Liberals over Labor in all states except Victoria, whilst Pauline Hanson's party has preferenced the crucial 3rd Labor seat before the 3rd Liberal/National seat in both Queensland and New South Wales.[142][143]
However, Greens' Leader Bob Brown (in Tasmania) and independent Nick Xenophon (in South Australia) each achieved more than the quota of 14.3 percent of votes cast in their respective states, and were therefore elected as the third (and not sixth) sucessful candidate in those states, without relying on preferences from other candidates and groups.[144]
While senators elected by the states do not actually take their seats until July 2008, the senators representing the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory take their seats almost immediately after the election results are confirmed. Liberal senator Gary Humphries representing the ACT, faced a significant challenge from Greens candidate, Kerrie Tucker and number 2 Labor candidate, Peter Conway. If he had lost his seat, this would have removed the coalition majority in the Senate immediately after the election.[145] Polling immediately prior to the election showed this was quite possible, with Labor on 48, Coalition 25, and Greens 20,[146] although in fact Humphries appears to have returned to the Senate.[144]
Coalition senators Paul Calvert, Rod Kemp, Sandy Macdonald and Kay Patterson; and Labor senator Robert Ray did not contest the 2007 election.
High-profile candidates
(Alphabetically by surname.)
- Pauline Hanson, former One Nation Party MP, announced that she would stand for the Senate in Queensland.[147] Polling before the election indicated her primary vote would be around 7.5 percent, but it was expected that she would struggle to get the preferences required to gain a seat.[148] She achieved 4% of the vote and, including preferences, about 28% of a quota.[149][150]
- Dr Karl Kruszelnicki, author and broadcaster, ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in New South Wales for the Climate Change Coalition, occupying second place on the party's ticket in that state behind Patrice Newell.
- Andrew Wilkie, former ONA intelligence officer to the Howard government, was pre-selected as second on the ticket for the Tasmanian Greens behind Senator Bob Brown. He resigned from the Office of National Assessments (ONA) over his concerns about government use of intelligence information in building a case for the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In the 2004 election he polled 16 percent for the Greens in Prime Minister John Howard's electorate of Bennelong.
- Nick Xenophon, a former No Pokies MP in the state Parliament of South Australia, resigned to run for a federal Senate seat representing South Australia. He attracted a fifth of the state-wide upper house vote (20.5 percent) at the 2006 state election. As widely predicted he won a Senate seat,[138] but not two, as had been suggested[151] and confirmed predictions that he would share the Senate balance of power.[152] His platform consists of anti-gambling, pro-consumer protection, attention to the water crisis, ratifying Kyoto, opposition against what he calls a decrease in state rights, and opposition to WorkChoices.[153][154] During the campaign, Xenophon came under attack by fellow No Pokies MP Ann Bressington.
See also
- Australian electoral system
- Mackerras federal election pendulum, 2006
- Candidates of the Australian general election, 2007
- List of political parties in Australia
- List of Australian federal electorates
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{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Holroyd, Jane (November 14 2007). "Labor's hi-tech poll bid". The Age. Retrieved 2007-11-15.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Abbott stands by workplace comments". The Sydney Morning Herald. November 16 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-16.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Speech video edited, says angry Abbott". The Australian. November 16 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-16.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Video shows Tony Abbott saying job protections lost". The Herald Sun. November 16 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-16.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Crawshaw, David (November 16 2007). "Audit Office defends report's timing". The Australian. Retrieved 2007-11-16.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Stafford, Annabel (November 16 2007). "Rort claims: PM looking down the barrel". The Age. Retrieved 2007-11-16.
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{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Howard defends $360m bill". The Sydney Morning Herald. November 20 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-23.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b "No cover-up, no WorkChoices II: Howard". ABC. November 20 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-23.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Think again, Barnaby told". The Australian. November 21 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-23.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Libs predict candidate 'limbo'". The Age. November 21 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-23.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Candidate's husband faces expulsion over flyer scandal". ABC. November 22 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-23.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Liberal shame over fake pamphlet". The Sydney Morning Herald. November 22 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-23.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b "'I didn't mastermind fake Lib pamphlet'". The Sydney Morning Herald. November 22 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-23.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Kelly's husband linked to misleading flyers". ABC. November 21 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-23.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Australian soldier killed in Afghanistan". The Australian. November 23 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-23.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Knox, David (9 November 2007). "Election Night: Who's Got What". blog. TV Tonight. Retrieved 2007-11-09.
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{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Anderson, Laura (May 5 2007). "Anger as Combet chases safe seat". The Advertiser. Retrieved 2007-05-05.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Union heavies join Labor's star recruits". The Advertiser. May 5 2007. Retrieved 2007-05-05.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Coorey, Philip (22 May 2007). "Weatherman Bailey quits ABC for politics". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2007-10-22.
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{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Christians cast first stone". The Sydney Morning Herald. 2007-11-06. Retrieved 2007-11-17.
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{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Hanson preference deal favours Labor". news.com.au. 5 November 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-15.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Koutsoukis, Jason (23 September 2007). "So, is the party over?". The Age. Retrieved 2007-10-22.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ a b "Provisional quota". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 2007-11-25.
- ^ Shanahan, Dennis (November 10, 2007). "IR reform 'not negotiable'". The Australian. Retrieved 2007-11-11.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Liberal Senate seat in danger: poll". ABC News. 14 November 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-15.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Hanson Launches new political party". ABC. August 15, 2007. Retrieved 2007-08-15.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Hanson attracting 7.5% support in Qld". The Sydney Morning Herald. 19 October 2007. Retrieved 2007-10-22.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Senate: first preferences by group – QLD". AEC. Retrieved 2007-11-26.
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{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "Labor hopes he will hold balance of power". news.com.au. 12 October 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-15.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ "No pokies campaigner aims at Senate". The Australian. 11 October 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-15.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help) - ^ Debelle, Penelope (12 October 2007). "Fearful of Xenophon in Senate". Retrieved 2007-10-22.
{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help); Unknown parameter|publsiher=ignored (|publisher=suggested) (help)
External links
Official
- Parliament of Australia - Election Timetable
- Australian Electoral Commission
- Australian Senate 2007 ballot papers and preference flows
Media
Unofficial Sites
- AustralianPolitics.com: 2007 Federal Election
- The Poll Bludger - Federal Election 2007
- OzPolitics - Australian Federal Election 2007
- Adam Carr's Guide to the 2007 Federal Election
- Possums Pollytics
- Simon Jackman's 2007 Election Analysis
- TrendLines Research's International Seat Projection Charts Daily tracking of a 9-model average (of seat projections) for the Australian Election. Includes post-Election pundit scoreboard.
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