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2008 United States presidential election

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United States presidential election, 2008
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Current Electoral college votes

The United States presidential election of 2008, scheduled to be held on November 4, 2008, will be the 56th consecutive quadrennial election for president and vice president of the United States. This presidential election schedule coincides with the 2008 Senate elections, House of Representatives elections, and gubernatorial elections, as well as many state and local elections.

Under Article Two of the United States Constitution, as amended by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution, an Electoral College will elect the president. These electors are appointed by mechanisms chosen by each state's legislature (prevailingly, by popular vote of the voters of each state). The individual who receives a majority of votes for president — 270 votes are needed for a majority — will be the president-elect of the United States; and the individual who receives a majority of electoral votes for vice president will be the vice president-elect of the United States. If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College, then the president-elect will be selected by a vote of the House of Representatives, with each state receiving a single vote. If no vice presidential candidate receives a majority, then the vice president-elect will be selected by a vote of the Senate. Although rare, these latter scenarios have occurred twice in America's history, in 1825 and 1837.

As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be partially based on the 2000 Census. The president-elect and vice president-elect are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2009.

2008 presidential election characteristics

First election without incumbents in the primaries since 1928

When a United States President leaves office, his vice president is usually considered a leading candidate and likely nominee to succeed him. However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for president, a statement he re-iterated in 2004. While appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."[1] The 2008 election will therefore mark the first time since the 1928 election in which there is neither an incumbent president nor an incumbent vice president running for her/his party's nomination in the presidential election.[2] The 1952 election was the last time neither the incumbent president nor incumbent vice president ran in the general election, after President Harry S. Truman bowed out following his loss in the New Hampshire primary and Vice President Alben Barkley then sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination.[3] (Truman's name was on the New Hampshire primary ballot but he did not campaign. He lost to Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver and formally withdrew his name from consideration.)

In the three most recent presidential administrations featuring an outgoing two-term president — those of Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton — the incumbent vice president has immediately thereafter run for president. (Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election.)[4][5]

In the 1968 election, Lyndon Johnson initially decided to seek re-election. He entered the New Hampshire primary and won. However, he had a national poll conducted, which yielded results against his favor. Therefore, in a nationally televised speech, Johnson announced to the public that he would not seek re-election. Incumbent Vice President Hubert Humphrey then chose to run and was the eventual Democratic nominee. Had LBJ stayed in the race and won (and completed his second elected term), he would have served more than nine years. The 22nd Amendment didn't disqualify him for a second elected term, as he had served only 14 months of John F. Kennedy's unexpired term.[4] The other recent Vice Presidents, such as Dan Quayle and Walter Mondale, have also sought the office of president at various times. Mondale succeeded his President, the one-term Jimmy Carter, as his party's candidate, and Quayle was unsuccessful in winning the nomination for the country's highest office.[5]

Campaign costs

Main article: Fundraising for the 2008 presidential election

The reported cost of campaigning for President has increased significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for both Democratic and Republican campaigns are added together (for the Presidential primary election, general election, and the political conventions) the costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in 1996, $649.5 million in 2000, and $1.01 billion in 2004).[6] In January 2007, Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election," and that to be "taken seriously," a candidate will need to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.

Although he has said that he will not be running for president, published reports indicate that billionaire and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg has been considering a presidential bid with $1 billion of his own fortune to finance it.[7] Should Bloomberg decide to run as an independent, he would not need to campaign in the primary elections or participate in the conventions, greatly reducing both the necessary length and cost of his campaign.

With the increase in money, the public financing system funded by the presidential election campaign fund checkoff has not been used by many candidates. So far, John McCain[8], Tom Tancredo[9], John Edwards[10], Chris Dodd[11], and Joe Biden[12] have qualified for and elected to take public funds in the primary. Other major candidates have eschewed the low amount of spending permitted and have chosen not to participate.

Effect of the Internet

In late April, Huffington Post, Yahoo!, and Slate magazine announced that they would be hosting one Democratic and one Republican debate for Presidential hopefuls. The debates are proposed to be held after Labor Day and hosted by Charlie Rose. Of the debates, Arianna Huffington remarked "It was clear to me, the 2008 campaign was going to be dominated by what's happening online — new technologies, new media like never before."[13]

Yahoo! Answers has become a platform for an ongoing Q & A process for voters to ask and answer questions posed by presidential candidates and US voters[14]

Many of the presidential candidates have been trying to connect with younger voters, through YouTube[15], MySpace[16], and Facebook[16]. Currently Republican Ron Paul[17][18] and Democratic candidate Barack Obama are most actively courting the Internet.[19] On December 16, 2007, Ron Paul collected more money on a single day through Internet donations than any presidential candidate in US history with over $6 million.[20][21][22]

The Internet has also been used to make anonymous attacks on candidates.[23] (see Barack Obama background whisper campaign and media controversy‎)

CNN-YouTube Debates

Main article: CNN-YouTube presidential debates

CNN and YouTube hosted a debate between the Democratic presidential candidates on July 23, 2007 at The Citadel in Charleston, South Carolina, and a debate between the Republican presidential candidates on November 28, 2007 at the Mahaffey Theatre in St. Petersburg.[24]. Questions came primarily from YouTube viewer submitted videos, with 39 questions asked of the Democrats and 31 of the Republican candidates about divisive issues respective to each party. In the Democratic debate, most observers agreed that none of the candidates debating particularly outshone their rivals, doing nothing to challenge Hillary Clinton's position as the Democratic race's front-runner[25]. The Republican debate contained some controversy, as it was discovered after the debate that several of the question-askers were actually Democratic supporters; most notably, Former Brigadier General Keith Kerr, who appeared in person, is actually a member of a committee supporting Clinton.

Timeline

Main article: United States presidential election, 2008 timeline

Early stages

Federal law requires reporting of funds spent and raised for elections. Potential candidates harboring serious intentions of running in the 2008 election had to create and register a campaign committee before receiving contributions. As the first candidates began filing the paperwork, other politicians felt a pressure to build support before a front-runner emerged, spurring on further declarations of candidacy. News media coverage and attendant "buzz" would increase around certain individuals, and those without an active campaign (and not just a legal status as a candidate) risked being regarded non-contenders. Most potential candidates formed exploratory committees or announced their candidacies outright by November 2006. The goals of these committees were media attention and fund-raising. Broadcast media discussions by various pundits and a series of events sponsored by the different parties during 2007, including debates, straw polls, and other events were staged to give voters a chance to get to know the candidates. The Democrats, for example, hosted a series of candidate forums and debates in Nevada, which began on February 21, as well as a debate in South Carolina on April 26.

The Republican Party also planned events for the candidates, for example, the televised debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California on May 3, was the first of a series that would last through the summer and fall, and after the traditional Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on August 11, Tommy Thompson withdrew from the race after faring poorly there.

"Front runner" status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but by October 2007, the consensus listed about six candidates as leading the pack. For example, CNN lists Clinton, Edwards, Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Obama, and Mitt Romney as the front runners. [26] The Washington Post listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic frontrunners, "leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates." [27] MSNBC's Chuck Todd christened Giuliani and McCain the Republican front runners after the second Republican presidential debate. [28]

Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million, the next closest candidate was Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million. [29] In the third quarter of 2007, the top four GOP fund raisers were Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, and Paul.[30] Paul set the GOP record for the largest online single day fund raising on November 5, 2007.[31] [32] Hillary Clinton set the Democratic record for largest single day fund raising on June 30, 2007.[33]

According to a poll featured on ABC News and released February 2007, 65 percent of respondents stated that they are following the 2008 election closely, a very high number considering that the election was more than a year away.

Official primary and caucus dates

Main articles: Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008 and Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

Delegates to national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This is due to winning candidates collecting a majority of committed delegates to win their party's nomination. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

Both parties have adopted rules to prevent early primaries and have acted to strip some or all delegates from states that have disobeyed.

February 5, 2008, looks set to be a decisive date, one month before the traditional Super Tuesday, as up to twenty states, with half of the population of the United States among them, are moving to hold their primaries on what is being called Tsunami Tuesday, National Presidential Primary Day, Giga Tuesday, The Unofficial National Primary or Super Duper Tuesday.[34][35][36][37][38]

Later events

Candidates and potential candidates

Main article: United States presidential candidates, 2008

Politicians with ambition have begun to express formally their desire for the presidency in the form of "exploratory committees," which allow the hopeful to raise money and travel without having to follow certain financial restrictions mandated by federal law. With official events, such as debates and candidate forums, beginning as early as February 2007, the status of a candidate will be based on whether or not he or she is invited. Several minor candidates in the past have tried to litigate their way in, generating some publicity but little public support.

Politicians who have expressed interest in a 2008 candidacy and have not ruled it out qualify for listing in the "Potential candidates" sections. Candidates marked with a † have not registered with the Federal Election Commission.

Major parties

Democratic Party

Main article: United States Democratic presidential candidates, 2008

Candidates for the Democratic Party:

Withdrawn candidates:

Republican Party

Main article: United States Republican presidential candidates, 2008

Candidates for the Republican Party:

Additional third tier candidates have filed with the FEC - See main article.

Withdrawn candidates:

Other parties

Main article: United States third party presidential candidates, 2008

Constitution Party

Candidates for the Constitution Party:

Green Party

Candidates for the Green Party (Official Press Release):

Draft candidates

Libertarian Party

Candidates for the Libertarian Party:

Potential candidates:

Prohibition Party

Socialist Party USA

The Socialist Party USA nominated Brian Moore† of Florida for president, and Stewart Alexander† of California for vice-president, at the party's St. Louis convention, October 19-21, 2007.[52]

Unity08 Party

No official candidates for the newly formed Unity08 Party have yet announced themselves, but the two most frequently mentioned candidates are Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg and Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel.†[53] [54] Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn† has expressed possible interest in seeking the party's nomination.[55]

Withdrawn candidates (minor parties)

Independents

Candidates running as Independents:

Active draft movements

Self-declared potential candidates

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008
See also: Opinion polling by state for the United States presidential election, 2008
See also: Opinion polling for the Democratic Party (United States) 2008 presidential candidates
See also: Opinion polling for the Republican Party (United States) 2008 presidential candidates
See also: Opinion polling for the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008
See also: Opinion polling for the Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

Possible electoral college changes

National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

Further information: National Popular Vote Interstate Compact

The Compact, if passed by states representing a controlling majority of the electoral college, would require states cast their electoral votes for the national popular winner, essentially shifting the election to a popular vote. The existing system is argued to encourage candidates to cater to swing states, discourage voter turnout, and allow candidates not popularly elected to take office as happened in the elections of 1824, 1876, 1888 and 2000. Currently, only Maryland has signed NPV legislation into law, and it is highly unlikely that the NPV could take effect in time for the 2008 election.

DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act of 2007

In 2007, Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-VA) introduced the "DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act of 2007" in the United States House of Representatives. If enacted, the act would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by one. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the District of Columbia, alongside an additional electoral college vote award to Utah in order to balance the addition. The Congressional Research Service has determined that if passed, the bill would likely be found unconstitutional, on the suggested basis that Congress does not have the authority to grant a Representative to the District.[65]

The bill also grants, for partisan balancing, an additional House seat to Utah, which very narrowly missed gaining another seat in the 2000 census, and increases Utah's electoral votes by 1, since Utah is likely to vote Republican and the District of Columbia is likely to vote Democratic. However, this will only be valid until the next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all other seats. The District of Columbia's electoral vote count would remain unchanged at three, as required by the 23rd amendment. The likely effect of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate: Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote. Even though the size of the electoral college would increase to 539, a candidate would still need 270 electoral votes to win.

Presidential Election Reform Act (California)

Further information: Presidential Election Reform Act

There is a proposed initiative in the state of California to alter, in time for the 2008 election, the way the state's electoral votes for president are distributed among presidential candidates. Under the proposed measure, it would switch from a winner-takes-all system to a system under which every candidate receives electoral votes based on their percentage of the popular vote in California. The Democratic Party has opposed this, saying that it will give an unfair advantage to Republicans and is tantamount to electoral fraud.

As of September 27, 2007, efforts to get the initiative on the ballot appeared to be dead.[66] However, it gained new life in late October 2007, when a new organization began raising the money thought needed to get the initiative on the ballot.[67]

In order to appear on the June 3, 2008, ballot, the initiative must garner approximately 434,000 signatures by February 4, 2008, according to California's Secretary of State.[68] However the signatures were not submitted in time for the June 3 ballot which means it will likely appear on the November 4,2008 ballot.

Potential battleground states

Pundits and political experts have identified certain battleground states whose close votes may be crucial to the election. These states include (but may not be limited to):

File:2008-US-Pres-Election-Battleground-Map.png
potential battleground states (purple)
  • Arkansas: Although a conservative state in the heart of the Bible Belt, the Democratic Party is a powerful force in Arkansas and Democrats tend to have a comfortable advantage in statewide races. Presently, the Governor, both U.S. Senators, and three out of four of the Arkansas' House members are Democrats, and Democrats control the state legislature by a large margin. The Arkansas Democratic Party tends to be more conservative than the national party, however, and as a result voters there tend to be open to Republican Presidential candidates. Though favorite son Bill Clinton won Arkansas easily both times he ran, Arkansas gave their electoral votes to Bush in 2000 and 2004 by a fairly large margin. Arkansas has a large African American population, which could favor the Democratic candidate. Early December 2007 polling shows former Arkansas First Lady Hillary Clinton with a lead in the state, leading Giuliani 49-35. [69]
  • Colorado: The "Centennial State" is holding its second Democratic National Convention in Denver after 100 years. The election of Ken Salazar, a Hispanic-American to the U.S. Senate; Bill Ritter to the Governorship in 2006 and a U.S. House seat pick-up in 2006 made it a prized apple for the Democrats, prompting DNC Chairman Howard Dean to claim that the West holds the key to victory in 2008, which effectively made Denver the location of the Convention. Strong Hispanic-American concentration and the attention of issues such as immigration reform, labor union support and minimum wage have made this a possible Democratic state. However, Republicans still claim their title on this state because of their support of gun rights and their stance on social conservative issues, and pundits have put Colorado as the initial favorite for the Republicans. A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports in December 2007 has Giuliani defeating Clinton 44-40.[70]
  • Florida: The key player in 2000, whose votes went, controversially, to George W. Bush, making him the effective winner. Florida is situated in the South, which has become a Republican stronghold. Experts agree that the winner of Florida will have a significant advantage towards advancing to the White House. Florida has trended toward the Republican Party since 2000. For Democrats, the vote of the elderly is seen as a potential boon, due to the party's traditional stance on Medicare and Social Security, two key components of winning the elderly vote, in addition to tax cuts and values issues. The Hispanic and African American population's in Florida could also give the Democrats an edge in a close race. As for Republicans, the business attention of tax cuts and Cuban-American attention has made it a strong contender. Also, Florida's recently-elected governor, Republican Charlie Crist, has enjoyed high approval ratings and has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential nominee on the 2008 GOP ticket. As of November 2007, Hillary Clinton trails Rudy Giuliani 46 to 41. All the GOP hopefuls earn between 46% and 48% of the vote while Clinton attracted 38% to 41%. [71]
  • Indiana: Traditionally a Republican stronghold but in 2006, Democrats won three house seats here. Another factor that may drag down the Republican Ticket might be Governor Mitch Daniels, who has become very unpopular in the state. Also in 2006, Democrats gained control of State House. The state hasn't voted for a Democratic Presidential Nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, but a poll out by the Indianapolis Star, features a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican in the Presidential election 37%-32% [72]. The poll shows the War in Iraq and the sluggish economy to be the biggest issues among Hoosiers. Also, the poll found that a Democratic Ticket featuring Indiana Senator Evan Bayh would boost the possibility of Indiana switching alliances.
  • Iowa: The first in the nation caucus is also first in the list for those who want to ensure their victory in the "Hawkeye State". Iowa has been a true battleground state, in the sense that it went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004; but, both times, the margin of victory was small, making it a pivotal destination. In 2006, Democrats retained control of the Governor's Mansion with the election of Chet Culver and the addition of two U.S. House seats. Also, for the first time in four decades, Democrats gained complete control of the state legislature, further enhancing the progress of the Democrats. Still, agriculture policies and conservative values make it a magnet for the Republicans. As of December 18, 2007, Hillary Clinton led Rudy Giuliani 47% to 42%. [73]McCain led Clinton 46% to 45% in the poll. [74]
  • Kentucky: With a Democratic pick-up of the Governor's Mansion in November 2007, and a troubled State Republican Party, Kentucky a state that will be in play. Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher was defeated for re-election on November 6, 2007, and Senators Mitch McConnell and Jim Bunning's approval have dropped recently. McConnell, the Senate Minority Leader, is up for re-election in 2008. Although it went to the Republicans in 2000 and 2004 by strong margins, it waspreviously won by Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996. Pundits have put Kentucky in the Republican column, but a December 18, 2007, SurveyUSA poll has Giuliani trailing, with the poll inside the margin of error, with Clinton receiving 47% to Giuliani's 45%. [75] McCain is leading Clinton in the poll 50 to 44%.
  • Michigan: The "Great Lakes State" has been a safe bet for the Democrats for a long time, giving its 17 electoral votes to Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry. However, with each election, the margin of victory has diluted, shifting it from the "safe" category to the "leaning" category for the Democrats, opening a window for the Republicans. Populist issues have dominated the state and made it a natural attraction for the Democrats, but Republicans have gained ground in advancing tax cuts and other social issues, following the "Reagan Democrat" movement. One point of contention is the recent landslide re-election victory for the Democratic governor Jennifer Granholm, who carries many Michiganders' blame of its declining economic situation. But still, pundits agree that even though the Democratic proclivity is high, there remains a significant vacuum that could be filled by the Republicans. An December 2007 Rasmussen Poll shows Clinton with a large lead in Michigan. According to the poll, Clinton defeats Giuliani 45-36. [76]
  • Minnesota: Minnesota has been a traditional Democratic state in recent decades, but in the past two presidential elections, the elections have been competitive between the GOP and Democratic candidates. The 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate election is also stated to be competitive, with Republican Norm Coleman running for re-election and commentator Al Franken actively seeking the Democratic nomination. The Republicans are holding their National Convention in Saint Paul hoping to sway the election toward Republicans this time. The last Republican presidential candidate to win in Minnesota was President Richard Nixon in 1972; since then, it has generally been solid ground for the Democrats. But in 2000 and 2004, the margin of victory was small, encouraging multiple visits by candidates in both parties. In 2006, however, the DFL picked up a house seat and gained 19 legislative seats and six state senate seats. A December 2007 Survey USA poll has 53% for Clinton to 40% for Giuliani. [77] McCain fared better in the poll but was still behind Clinton 51 to 43%.
  • Missouri: The "Show Me State" has been dubbed as the bellwether for the nation, determining the mood of the nation for a long time. It is the state who has determined the most winners for the Presidency. The home of President Harry Truman leans slightly Republican, granting its 11 electoral votes to Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the relative strength of Republicans in this Midwestern state, it has a strong penchant for advancing populist causes, such as stem cell research and universal health coverage. In 2006, Missouri elected its first female U.S. Senator in Claire McCaskill. Continuing on that trend, the national mood souring over the war in Iraq makes this a strong contender for the Democrats. According to an December 2007 Survey USA poll, McCain trails Clinton 50 to 46%. [78] Giuliani trails Clinton 49 to 43%. [79]
  • Nevada: The Democrats, on the lobbying of Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid and DNC Chairman Howard Dean changed the primary date to make it compatible with New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina. Even though Nevada has tended to vote for the Republicans, the high concentration of labor unions and Hispanic-American vote make it a potential battleground state. The 2006 Gubernatorial election was a competitive one, where Republican Jim Gibbons won by a slim margin; when the state has tended to support them. For Democrats, the Las Vegas metropolitan area and its exponential population increase are making it a Democratic attraction, and they are buoyed by the strong disapproval ratings of Gibbons (29 percent approval rating as of March 2007) and Bush (34 percent approval rating as of March 2007). [80] In the November Nevada poll by CNN, Giuliani led Clinton 47-46. [81] In addition, Nevada has been won by the victor of every US Presidential election since 1912, with the single exception of 1976.
  • New Hampshire: Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine. New Hampshire was the only state in the nation that went for Bush in 2000 and then for Kerry in 2004, although by narrow margins both times. Hillary Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 43-42 in a September 2007 poll by Rasmussen Reports.[82]
  • New Mexico: New Mexico has been long eschewed as a nominal state, but that thinking has changed dramatically. With elections being heavily contested and victories being decided by two or three states, New Mexico has become one of the centers of political fighting. In 2000, Gore won by a razor-thin margin and in 2004, Bush won by a small, yet safe margin. These results have made experts conclude that New Mexico's five electoral votes, even though small in calculation, could make significant splashing and benefit the challenger who might lag behind in big states such as Ohio and Florida. New Mexico's large Hispanic and Native American populations tend to vote Democrat, and could be the key for a Democratic candidate in a close race. Its penchant for populist streaks have made it an attraction for the Democrats, with Gov. Bill Richardson joining the crowd for the Democratic nomination, based on the calculation that Democrats need to win such Western states to advance their path towards succeeding Bush. A December 2007 poll by SurveyUSA showed Clinton leading Giuliani 49-46. [83] McCain leads Clinton 48 to 46% in the poll. [84]
  • Ohio: "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in Ohio," stated Eric Rademacher, director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for the Cincinnati Enquirer.[85] Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's reelection in 2004. In 2006, however, Ohio voters elected Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator, respectively. A December 2007 poll by SurveyUSA has Clinton leading Giuliani by a wide margin, 49-40.[86] Her lead over McCain is 50-46.
  • Oregon: A Democratic-leaning state, with generally strong beliefs in civil liberties and liberal ideology on social issues. The state has gone to the Democrats from the 1988 election onward. According to a December 2007 SurveyUSA poll, Clinton would get 49% of the vote and McCain 47%. [87] Her lead over Giuliani is 50 to 42%. [88]
  • Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Pedro A. Cortés stated on March 17, 2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state." [89] Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Gore (2000) and Kerry (2004). President Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign.[90] An October 2007 poll by Quinnipiac University has Hillary Clinton leading Giuliani, 48-42. McCain was statistically tied, with Clinton leading 45% to 43%. [91]
  • Tennessee: Tennessee was not expected to be competitive in 2008, but recent polls have shown that Democrats could be very competitive in the state. A recent Rasmussen poll had Clinton narrowly edging Giuliani and Romney.[92] And while Tennessee did go to Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, it has not been kind to Democrats in recent cycles. It went against native son Al Gore in 2000; if Gore had won the state, he would have emerged the victor. Tennessee joins other Southern states like Kentucky that have not been competitive in recent memory, but in which Democrats find themselves surprisingly competitive. An November 2007 Rasmussen poll has Giuliani barely leading Clinton 45-42, however Thompson leads Clinton 54% to 41%. [93]
  • Virginia: No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no longer as reliably Republican as it once was, as evidenced by Democrat Tim Kaine's victory in 2005 for the Governor's Mansion and Jim Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Republican George Allen. Additionally, Northern Virginia, the fastest-growing region in the state, tends to lean Democratic. On September 13, 2007, former Virginia governor and Democrat Mark Warner informally announced he will run for the Senate in 2008 for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner. This notion is supported by a September 2007 Rasmussen Reports poll in which Mark Warner leads former Republican governor Jim Gilmore 54% to 34% and Republican Congressman Tom Davis 57% to 30%. A Survey USA poll as of mid December 2007 showed Giuliani trailing Clinton 52% to 42%. [94] The poll showed McCain trailing Clinton 48 to 46%.
  • West Virginia: Although registered Democrats in the state outnumber registered Republicans, Bush narrowly won the state in both the 2000 and 2004 elections with 52% and 56% of the vote respectively. President Clinton won the state in both 1992 and 1996. According to a poll by Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates in May 2007, Hillary Clinton leads Giuliani 42-36.[95]
  • Wisconsin: Among the closest states in the nation, Wisconsin very narrowly went to Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. These two results were much closer than the results in prior elections, so it could be possible Wisconsin is trending Republican in presidential elections, though John Kerry won by a slightly larger margin than Gore in 2000. A December 2007 Survey USA poll has Clinton barely leading Giuliani, 45-42 [96]. Meanwhile, McCain was ahead of Clinton in the poll 49% to 42%. [97]

The potential battleground states listed above control a total of 207 electoral votes. Of the states that are not expected to be competitive, 142 electoral votes (Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming) are currently expected to go to the Republican party, while 183 (California, Connecticut, D.C., Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington) are expected to go to the Democrats. Any of these may become competitive as the election progresses.

State polling

Main article: Opinion polling by state for the United States presidential election, 2008

Democratic

  • Washington: Democrats in Washington outnumber Republicans 2 to 1, but polling by SurveyUSA has Clinton with a lead of 52% and Giuliani with 43%.[98]Her lead over Romney is 55% to 41% and her lead over McCain is 49% to 47%.
  • Massachusetts: Clinton defeats Giuliani 57%-37%. [99]
  • New York: With both Clinton and Giuliani from New York, this state will be fought hard by both. November 2007 polling has Clinton defeating Giuliani 55-40. [100]
  • California: Clinton beats Giuliani 58%-36%. [101]
  • Maryland: Although Democrats control all tops of Maryland's government, Clinton barely edges out Giuliani for Maryland's 10 electoral votes with Clinton receiving 46% to Giuliani's 41%. Maryland's Democratic Governor Martin J. O'Malley has endorsed Clinton. Maryland's former Republican Governor Robert L. Ehrlich (2003-2007) is Giuliani Mid-Atlantic Chairman for his campaign. [102]
  • Illinois: Clinton leads Giuliani by three points, 45% to 42%. Obama leads Giuliani by over twenty points, at 56% to 34%. [103]
  • New Jersey: Clinton leads by a wide margin Giuliani 50% to 37%. [104]
  • Connecticut: A state with a heavy Italian background, has Italian Giuliani barely losing to Clinton 46% to 43% [105]

Republican

  • Kansas: Republicans hold both of Kansas's Senate seats, and control two out of its four house seats. Kansas's Governor, Kathleen Sebelius, is a Democrat. One of Kansas's popular U.S Senators, Pat Roberts is up for re-election in 2008 as well. Giuliani leads Clinton here 51% to 39%. [106]
  • Alabama: A Republican stronghold has Giuliani leading Clinton 49% to 42% [107].
  • Oklahoma: A strong Republican state, Giuliani barely edges Clinton 47-44. [108]
  • Texas: A Republican stronghold, has Giuliani defeating Clinton 50% to 39% [109]. Thompson leads Clinton 47% to 41% [110].
  • North Carolina: Giuliani and Clinton are technically tied with Giuliani at 40%, and Clinton at 39%. [111]
  • Arizona: McCain leads Clinton 57% to 34%, and Giuliani leads as well against Clinton 47% to 38%.[112]
  • Georgia: Giuliani defeats Clinton 48% to 44%. [113]
  • Utah: Giuliani defeats Clinton by 40+%, 62-26.[114]

See also

References

  1. ^ http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,146546,00.html |title=Transcript: Vice President Cheney on 'FOX News Sunday' |accessdate=2006-11-14 |date=2005-02-07 |format=Reprint |work=FOX News Sunday |publisher=FOXNews.com
  2. ^ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/exclusions/uselection/nosplit/listintro.xml
  3. ^ "Alben W. Barkley", Mark O. Hatfield, with the Senate Historical Office. Vice Presidents of the United States, 1789-1993 (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1997), pp. 423-429.
  4. ^ a b "Historical Election Results: Electoral College Box Scores 1789-1996", U.S. Electoral College / Office of the Federal Register, U.S. National Archives and Records Administration.
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