2008 United States presidential election: Difference between revisions

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*[[Michael Moriarty]], actor, writer, musician, and political activist. <ref>[http://www.enterstageright.com/archive/articles/0605/0605moriartypresident.htm I'm running for President in 2008 by Michael Moriarty], Enter Stage Right 2005-05-30</ref><ref>[http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/17212.html An Interview with Emmy-Winning Actor Michael Moriarty, Presidential Candidate], TheConservativeVoice.com 2006-08-16</ref>
*[[Michael Moriarty]], actor, writer, musician, and political activist. <ref>[http://www.enterstageright.com/archive/articles/0605/0605moriartypresident.htm I'm running for President in 2008 by Michael Moriarty], Enter Stage Right 2005-05-30</ref><ref>[http://www.theconservativevoice.com/article/17212.html An Interview with Emmy-Winning Actor Michael Moriarty, Presidential Candidate], TheConservativeVoice.com 2006-08-16</ref>
*[[Sam Nunn]], former U.S. Senator ([[Democratic Party (United States)|D]]-[[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]]) <ref>{{cite news | first=Matt | last=Towery | coauthors= | title=As Insider First Reported, Sam Nunn's Being Court For Independent Bid - And Now He Confirms Interest | date= | publisher = InsiderAdvantage Georgia | url=http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/restricted/2007/August%202007/8-3-07/Top%20Story_Sam%20Nunn.php | accessdate= | language = }}</ref>
*[[Sam Nunn]], former U.S. Senator ([[Democratic Party (United States)|D]]-[[Georgia (U.S. state)|Georgia]]) <ref>{{cite news | first=Matt | last=Towery | coauthors= | title=As Insider First Reported, Sam Nunn's Being Court For Independent Bid - And Now He Confirms Interest | date= | publisher = InsiderAdvantage Georgia | url=http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia.com/restricted/2007/August%202007/8-3-07/Top%20Story_Sam%20Nunn.php | accessdate= | language = }}</ref>

===Stephen Colbert===
{{main|Colbert 08}}
Satirist <!---The comedian, not the character--->[[Stephen Colbert]]<!---The comedian, not the character---> has announced that he will seek election on both the Democratic and Republican tickets in his home state of [[South Carolina]]. He has formally filed with the state parties of both parties.


==Television debate ratings==
==Television debate ratings==

Revision as of 21:57, 25 October 2007

The United States presidential election of 2008, scheduled to be held on November 4, 2008, will be the 55th consecutive quadrennial election for president and vice president of the United States. The election will coincide with the 2008 Senate elections, House of Representatives elections, and gubernatorial elections, as well as many state and local elections.

As laid out by the United States Constitution, the individual who receives a majority of votes for president in the Electoral College — 270 votes are needed for a majority — will be the 44th president of the United States, and the individual who receives a majority of electoral votes for vice president will be the 47th vice president of the United States. If no presidential candidate receives a majority in the Electoral College at that time, then the president-elect will be selected by a vote of the House of Representatives, with each state receiving a single vote. If no vice presidential candidate receives a majority, then the vice president-elect will be selected by a vote of the Senate. These situations, however, have not occurred since 1825 and 1837, respectively.

As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be partially based on the 2000 Census. The president-elect and vice president-elect are scheduled to be inaugurated on Tuesday, January 20, 2009.

2008 presidential election characteristics

First election without incumbents in the primaries since 1928

When a United States President leaves office, his vice president is usually considered a leading candidate and likely nominee to succeed him. However, current Vice President Dick Cheney announced in 2001 that he would never run for president, a statement he re-iterated in 2004. While appearing on Fox News Sunday, Cheney stated: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."[1] The 2008 election will therefore mark the first time since the 1928 election in which there is neither an incumbent president nor an incumbent vice president running for his party's nomination in the presidential election. The 1952 election was the last time neither the incumbent president nor incumbent vice president ran in the general election, as Vice President Alben Barkley sought but failed to win the Democratic nomination.[2]

In the three most recent presidential administrations featuring an outgoing two-term president — those of Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton — the incumbent vice president has immediately thereafter run for president. (Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election.)[3][4]

A noteworthy fact is that the last time there were consecutive presidents who had both completed 2 full terms in office was in April of 1825 when James Monroe left office as the 5th president. Since the back-to-back presidencies of James Madison and James Monroe, there have been no consecutive 2 full-term presidencies until Bill Clinton and George W. Bush.

In the 1952 election, the race was between Republican candidate Dwight D. Eisenhower and Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson; earlier that year, incumbent President Harry S Truman allowed his name to stand in the New Hampshire primary but did not campaign. He lost to Tennessee Senator Estes Kefauver and formally withdrew his name from consideration.

In the 1968 election, Lyndon Johnson initially decided to seek re-election. He entered the New Hampshire primary and won. However, he had a national poll conducted, which yielded results against his favor. Therefore, in a nationally televised speech, Johnson announced to the public that he would not seek re-election. Incumbent Vice President Hubert Humphrey then chose to run and was the eventual Democratic nominee. Had LBJ stayed in the race and won (and completed his second elected term), he would have served more than 9 years. The 22nd Amendment didn't disqualify him for a second elected term, as he served only 14 months of John F. Kennedy's unexpired term.[3] The other recent Vice Presidents, such as Dan Quayle and Walter Mondale, have also sought the office of president at various times. Mondale succeeded his President, the one-term Jimmy Carter, as his party's candidate, and Quayle was unsuccessful in winning the nomination for the country's highest office.[4]

Campaign costs

Main article: Fundraising for the 2008 presidential election

The reported cost of campaigning for President has risen significantly in recent years. One source reported that if the costs for both Democratic and Republican campaigns are added together (for the Presidential primary election, general election, and the political conventions) the costs have more than doubled in only eight years ($448.9 million in 1996, $649.5 million in 2000, and $1.01 billion in 2004).[5] In January 2007, Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner estimated that the 2008 race will be a "$1 billion election," and that to be "taken seriously," a candidate will need to raise at least $100 million by the end of 2007.

Although he has said that he will not be running for president, published reports indicate that billionaire and New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg has been considering a presidential bid with $1 billion of his own fortune to finance it.[6] Should Bloomberg decide to run as an independent, he would not need to campaign in the primary elections or participate in the conventions, greatly reducing both the necessary length and cost of his campaign.

Effect of the Internet

In late April, Huffington Post, Yahoo!, and Slate magazine announced that they would be hosting one Democratic and one Republican debate for Presidential hopefuls. The debates are proposed to be held after Labor Day and hosted by Charlie Rose. Of the debates, Arianna Huffington remarked "It was clear to me, the 2008 campaign was going to be dominated by what's happening online — new technologies, new media like never before."[7]

CNN and YouTube hosted a debate between the Democratic presidential candidates on July 23, 2007, with questions coming from YouTube viewer submitted videos. The debate took place at The Citadel in Charleston, South Carolina. In all, 39 questions were asked from the 3,000 submissions YouTube said it received. Different types of questions were asked of the candidates. Most observers agreed that none of the candidates debating particularly outshone their rivals, doing nothing to challenge Hillary Clinton's position as the Democratic race's front-runner[8]. A Republican debate was scheduled for September 17, 2007, in Florida[8], but has been rescheduled to November 28, 2007, at the Mahaffey Theatre in St. Petersburg.[9]

Yahoo! Answers has become a platform for an ongoing Q & A process for voters to ask and answer questions posed by presidential candidates and US voters[10]

Many of the presidential candidates have been trying to connect with younger voters, through YouTube[11], MySpace[12], and Facebook[12]. Currently Republican Ron Paul[13][14] and Democratic candidate Barack Obama are most actively courting the Internet.[15]

Timeline

Main article: United States presidential election, 2008 timeline

Early stages

Federal law requires reporting of funds spent and raised for elections. Potential candidates harboring serious intentions of running in the 2008 election had to create and register a campaign committee before receiving contributions. As the first candidates began filing the paperwork, other politicians felt a pressure to build support before a front-runner emerged, spurring on further declarations of candidacy. News media coverage and attendant "buzz" would increase around certain individuals, and those without an active campaign (and not just a legal status as a candidate) risked being regarded non-contenders. Most potential candidates formed exploratory committees or announced their candidacies outright by November 2006. The goals of these committees were media attention and fund-raising. Broadcast media discussions by various pundits and a series of events sponsored by the different parties during 2007, including debates, straw polls, and other events were staged to give voters a chance to get to know the candidates. The Democrats, for example, hosted a series of candidate forums and debates in Nevada, which began on February 21, as well as a debate in South Carolina on April 26.

The Republican Party also planned events for the candidates, for example, the televised debate at the Ronald Reagan Library in California on May 3, was the first of a series that would last through the summer and fall, and after the traditional Ames Straw Poll in Iowa on August 11, Tommy Thompson withdrew from the race after faring poorly there.

"Front runner" status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but by October 2007, the consensus listed about six candidates as leading the pack. For example, CNN lists Clinton, Edwards, Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Obama, and Romney as the front runners. [16] The Washington Post listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic frontrunners, "leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates." [17] MSNBC's Chuck Todd christened Giuliani and McCain the Republican front runners after the second Republican presidential debate. [18]

Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million, the next closest candidate was Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million. [19]

According to a poll featured on ABC News and released February 2007, 65% of respondents stated that they are following the 2008 election closely, a very high number considering that the election was more than a year away.

Official primary and caucus dates

Main articles: Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008 and Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

Delegates to national party conventions are selected through direct primary elections, state caucuses, and state conventions. The process continues through June, but in previous cycles, the Democratic and Republican candidates were effectively chosen by the March primaries. This is due to winning candidates collecting a majority of committed delegates to win their party's nomination. Most third parties select delegates to their national conventions through state conventions.

The actual voting process begins in December 2007, when early voting begins in California and several other states, and the New Hampshire government is currently considering setting its primary date as early as the eleventh of that month. Both major parties have announced harsh penalties for states officially selecting delegates that early, but it seems that these will be ignored.

February 5, 2008, looks set to be a decisive date, one month before the traditional Super Tuesday, as up to twenty states, with half of the population of the United States among them, are moving to hold their primaries on what is being called Tsunami Tuesday, National Presidential Primary Day, Giga Tuesday, The Unofficial National Primary or Super Duper Tuesday.[20][21][22][23][24]

Later events

Candidates and potential candidates

Main article: United States presidential candidates, 2008

Politicians with ambition have begun to express formally their desire for the presidency in the form of "exploratory committees," which allow the hopeful to raise money and travel without having to follow certain financial restrictions mandated by federal law. With official events, such as debates and candidate forums, beginning as early as February 2007, the status of a candidate will be based on whether or not he or she is invited. Several minor candidates in the past have tried to litigate their way in, generating some publicity but little public support.

Politicians who have expressed interest in a 2008 candidacy and have not ruled it out qualify for listing in the "Potential candidates" sections.

Major parties

Democratic Party

Main article: United States Democratic presidential candidates, 2008

Candidates for the Democratic Party:

Active draft movement:

Withdrawn candidates:

Republican Party

Main article: United States Republican presidential candidates, 2008

Candidates for the Republican Party:

Additional third tier candidates have filed with the FEC - See main article.

Withdrawn candidates:

Third parties

Main article: United States third party presidential candidates, 2008

Constitution Party

Candidates for the Constitution Party:

Green Party

Candidates for the Green Party (Official Press Release):

Potential candidates

Libertarian Party

Candidates for the Libertarian Party:

Potential candidates:

Socialist Party USA

The Socialist Party USA nominated Brian Moore of Florida for president, and Stewart Alexander of California for vice-president, at the party's St. Louis convention, October 19-21, 2007 [38].

Unity08 Party

No official candidates for the newly formed Unity08 Party have yet announced themselves, but the two most frequently mentioned candidates are Mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg, and/or Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel[39]. [40]

Withdrawn candidates (minor parties)

Independents

Candidates running as Independents:

Active draft movements

Self-declared potential candidates

Stephen Colbert

Main article: Colbert 08

Satirist Stephen Colbert has announced that he will seek election on both the Democratic and Republican tickets in his home state of South Carolina. He has formally filed with the state parties of both parties.

Television debate ratings

Debate Party Network Total Viewers (Live)

Date Venue Total Live Viewers
April 26 Dem MSNBC 2,164,000
May 3 GOP MSNBC 1,705,000
May 15 GOP FNC 2,445,000
June 3 Dem CNN 2,714,000
June 5 GOP CNN 1,974,000
July 23 Dem CNN 2,552,000
Aug. 5 GOP ABC 2,106,000
Aug. 7 Dem MSNBC 893,000
Aug. 19 Dem ABC 2,799,000
Sept. 5 GOP FNC 3,141,000
Sept. 9 Dem Univision 2,194,000
Sept. 26 Dem MSNBC 1,449,000
Oct. 9 GOP CNBC 1,014,000
Oct. 9 GOP MSNBC 1,081,000 (repeat)
Oct. 21 GOP FNC 2,462,000

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008
See also: Opinion polling for the Democratic Party (United States) 2008 presidential candidates
See also: Opinion polling for the Republican Party (United States) 2008 presidential candidates
See also: Opinion polling for the Democratic Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008
See also: Opinion polling for the Republican Party (United States) presidential primaries, 2008

Possible electoral college changes

DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act of 2007

In 2007, Rep. Thomas M. Davis (R-VA) introduced the "DC Fair and Equal House Voting Rights Act of 2007" in the U.S. House. If enacted, the act would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by one. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the District of Columbia, alongside an additional electoral college vote award to Utah in order to balance the addition. The Congressional Research Service has determined that if passed, the bill would likely be found unconstitutional, on the suggested basis that Congress does not have the authority to grant a Representative to the District.[50]

The bill also grants, for partisan balancing, an additional House seat to Utah, which very narrowly missed gaining another seat in the 2000 census, and increases Utah's electoral votes by 1, since Utah is likely to vote Republican and the District of Columbia is likely to vote Democratic. However, this will only be valid until the next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all other seats. The District of Columbia's electoral vote count would remain unchanged at 3, as required by the 23rd amendment. The likely effect of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate: Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote. Even though the size of the electoral college would increase to 539, a candidate would still need 270 electoral votes to win.

Presidential Election Reform Act (California)

There is a proposed initiative in the state of California to alter, in time for the 2008 election, the way the state's electoral votes for president are distributed among presidential candidates. However, on September 27, 2007, its backers appeared to give up, and the proposal appears to be dead.[51]

Potential battleground states

Main article: Swing state

Pundits and political experts have identified certain battleground states whose close votes may be crucial to the election. These states include (but may not be limited to):

Current swing states
  • Arkansas: Although a conservative state in the heart of the Bible Belt, the Democratic Party is a powerful force in Arkansas and Democrats tend to have a comfortable advantage in statewide races. Presently, the Governor, both U.S. Senators, and 3 out of 4 of the Arkansas' House members are Democrats, and Democrats control the state legislature by a large margin. The Arkansas Democratic Party tends to be more conservative than the national party, however, and as a result voters there tend to be open to Republican Presidential candidates. Though favorite son Bill Clinton won Arkansas easily both times he ran, Arkansas gave their electoral votes to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 by a fairly large margin. Early polling shows former Arkansas First Lady Hillary Clinton with a huge lead in the state, leading Giuliani 55-37. [52]
  • Colorado: The "Centennial State" is holding its second Democratic National Convention in Denver after 100 years. The election of Ken Salazar, a Hispanic-American to the U.S. Senate; Bill Ritter to the Governorship in 2006 and a U.S. House seat pick-up in 2006 made it a prized apple for the Democrats, prompting DNC Chairman Howard Dean to claim that the West holds the key to victory in 2008, which effectively made Denver the location of the Convention. Strong Hispanic-American concentration and the attention of issues such as immigration reform, labor union support and minimum wage have made this a possible Democratic state. However, Republicans still claim their title on this state because of their support of gun rights and their stance on social conservative issues, and pundits have put Colorado as the initial favorite for the Republicans. A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports in August 2007 has Rudy Giuliani defeating Hillary Clinton 50-40.[53]
  • Florida: The key player in 2000, whose votes went to George W. Bush, making him the effective winner. Florida is situated in the South, which has become a Republican stronghold. Experts agree that the winner of Florida will have a significant advantage towards advancing to the White House. Florida has trended toward the Republican Party since 2000. For Democrats, the vote of the elderly is seen as a potential boon, due to the party's traditional stance on Medicare and Social Security, two key components of winning the elderly vote, in addition to tax cuts and values issues. As for Republicans, the business attention of tax cuts and Cuban-American attention has made it a strong contender. Also, Florida's recently-elected governor, Republican Charlie Crist, has enjoyed high approval ratings and has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential nominee on the 2008 GOP ticket. As of August 2007, Hillary Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 49-44.[54]
  • Iowa: The first in the nation caucus is also first in the list for those who want to ensure their victory in the "Hawkeye State". Iowa has been a true battleground state, in the sense that it went for Al Gore in 2000 and George W. Bush in 2004; but, both times, the margin of victory was small, making it a pivotal destination. In 2006, Democrats retained control of the Governor's Mansion with the election of Chet Culver and the addition of 2 U.S. House seats. Also, for the first time in four decades, Democrats gained complete control of the state legislature, further enhancing the progress of the Democrats. Still, agriculture policies and conservative values make it a magnet for the Republicans. As of June 11, 2007, Hillary Clinton led Rudy Giuliani 47-41 in a poll by SurveyUSA. [55]
  • Michigan: The "Great Lakes State" has been a safe bet for the Democrats for a long time, giving its 17 electoral votes to Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry. However, with each election, the margin of victory has diluted, shifting it from the "safe" category to the "leaning" category for the Democrats, opening a window for the Republicans. Populist issues have dominated the state and made it a natural attraction for the Democrats, but Republicans have gained ground in advancing tax cuts and other social issues, following the "Reagan Democrat" movement. One point of contention is the recent landslide re-election victory for the Democratic governor Jennifer Granholm, who carries many Michiganders' blame of its declining economic situation. But still, pundits agree that even though the Democratic proclivity is high, there remains a significant vacuum that could be filled by the Republicans. An August Rasmussen Poll shows Clinton with a large lead in Michigan. According to the poll, she defeats Giuliani 49-40. [56]
  • Minnesota: Minnesota has been a traditional Democratic state in recent decades, but in the past two presidential elections, the elections have been competitive between the GOP and Democratic candidates. The 2008 Minnesota U.S. Senate election is also stated to be competitive, with Republican Norm Coleman running for re-election and commentator Al Franken actively seeking the Democratic nomination. The Republicans are holding their National Convention in Saint Paul hoping to sway the election toward Republicans this time. The last Republican presidential candidate to win "North Star State" was President Richard Nixon in 1972; since then, it has generally been solid ground for the Democrats. But in 2000 and 2004, the margin of victory was small, encouraging multiple visits by candidates in both parties. In 2006, however, the DFL did pick up a house seat and gained 19 legislative seats and 6 state senate seats. A Minnesota poll by SurveyUSA (June 2007) shows Hillary Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani 50-41. [57]
  • Missouri: The "Show Me State" has been dubbed as the bellwether for the nation, determining the mood of the nation for a long time. It is the state who has determined the most winners for the Presidency. The home of President Harry Truman leans slightly Republican, granting its 11 electoral votes to Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the relative strength of Republicans in this Midwestern state, it has a strong penchant for advancing populist causes, such as stem cell research and universal health coverage. In 2006, Missouri elected its first female U.S. Senator in Claire McCaskill. Continuing on that trend, the national mood souring over the War in Iraq makes this a strong contender for the Democrats. According to an August Rasmussen poll, Clinton edges Giuliani in the state 46-43. [58]
  • Nevada: The Democrats, on the lobbying of Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid and DNC Chairman Howard Dean changed the primary date to make it compatible with New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina. Even though Nevada has tended to vote for the Republicans, the high concentration of labor unions and Hispanic-American vote make it a potential battleground state. The 2006 Gubernatorial election was a competitive one, where Republican Jim Gibbons won by a slim margin; when the state has tended to support them. For Democrats, the Las Vegas metropolitan area and its exponential population increase are making it a Democratic attraction, and they are buoyed by the strong disapproval ratings of Governor Gibbons (29% approval rating as of March 2007) and President Bush (34% approval rating as of March 2007). [59] In the March Nevada poll by Research 2000, Rudy Giuliani led Hillary Clinton 46-38. In that same poll, Giuliani led Barack Obama 44-42. [60] In addition, Nevada has been won by the victor of every US Presidential election since 1912, with the single exception of 1976.
  • New Hampshire: Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine. Hillary Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 44-40 in a August 2007 poll by Rasmussen Reports.[61]
  • New Mexico: New Mexico has been long eschewed as a nominal state, in that its status is insignificant and there is no benefit in visiting this low populated state; but that thinking has changed and changed dramatically. With elections being heavily contested and victories being decided by two or three states, New Mexico has become one of the centers of political fighting. In 2000, Al Gore won by a razor-thin margin and in 2004, George W. Bush won by a small, yet safe margin. These results have made experts conclude that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes, even though small in calculation, could make significant splashing and benefit the challenger who might lag behind in big states such as Ohio and Florida. Its penchant for populist streaks have made it an attraction for the Democrats, with Gov. Bill Richardson joining the crowd for the Democratic nomination, based on the calculation that Democrats need to win such Western states to advance their path towards succeeding George W. Bush. A June 2007 poll by SurveyUSA showed Hillary Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani 50-44. [62]
  • Ohio: "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in Ohio," stated Eric Rademacher, director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for the Cincinnati Enquirer. [63] Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's reelection in 2004. In 2006, however, Ohio voters elected Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator, respectively. A August 2007 poll by Rasmussen Reports had Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani statistically tied, with Giuliani receiving 44% of the vote to Clinton's 43%.[64]
  • Oregon: A Democratic-leaning state, the belief of anti-big government along with strong opposition to central government control, makes Oregon a GOP favorite; however, intense beliefs in civil liberties and liberal ideology on social issues force it to side with the Democrats. The state has gone to the Democrats from the 1988 election onward. As of August 2007, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are tied in Oregon. According to Rasmussen Reports, Clinton would get 42% of the vote and Giuliani 41%.[65]
  • Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Pedro A. Cortés stated on March 17, 2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state." [66] Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Al Gore (2000) and John Kerry (2004). President George W. Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign.[67] According to a August 2007 poll by Quinnipiac University has Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani about tied 45-44. [68]
  • Virginia: No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no longer as reliably Republican as it once was, as evidenced by Democrat Tim Kaine's victory in 2005 for the Governor's Mansion and Jim Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Republican George Allen. Also the fast growing region of the state Northern Virginia tends to lean democratic. On September 13, 2007, former Virginia governor and Democrat Mark Warner informally announced he will run for the Senate in 2008 for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner. [7] This notion is supported by a September 2007 Rasmussen Reports poll in which Mark Warner leads former Republican governor Jim Gilmore 54% to 34% and Republican Congressman Tom Davis 57% to 30%. In the race for US President Hillary Clinton is ahead of Rudy Giuliani 44% to 41%. She also leads Fred Thompson by 2 points and Mitt Romney by 4 points. [8]
  • West Virginia: Although registed Democrats in the state outnumber registered Republicans, President Bush narrowly won the state in both the 2000 and 2004 elections with 52% and 56% of the vote respectively. President Clinton won the state in both 1992 and 1996. According to a poll by Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates in May 2007, Hillary Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 42-36.[69]
  • Wisconsin: Among the closest states in the nation, Wisconsin very narrowly went to Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. These two results were much closer than the results in prior elections, so it could be possible Wisconsin is trending Republican in presidential elections, though John Kerry won by a slightly larger margin than Gore in 2000. According to a June 2007 SurveyUSA poll, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are tied at 46%. [70]

The potential battleground states listed above control a total of 177 electoral votes. Of the states that are not expected to be competitive, 178 electoral votes (AL, AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, NE, NC, ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY) are currently expected to go to the Republican party, while 183 (CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA) are expected to go to the Democrats. Any of these may, of course, become competitive as the election progresses.

See also

References

  1. ^ "Transcript: Vice President Cheney on 'FOX News Sunday'" (Reprint). FOX News Sunday. FOXNews.com. 2005-02-07. Retrieved 2006-11-14.
  2. ^ "Alben W. Barkley", Mark O. Hatfield, with the Senate Historical Office. Vice Presidents of the United States, 1789-1993 (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1997), pp. 423-429.
  3. ^ a b "Historical Election Results: Electoral College Box Scores 1789-1996", U.S. Electoral College / Office of the Federal Register, U.S. National Archives and Records Administration.
  4. ^ a b "Historical Election Results: Electoral College Box Scores 2000-2004", U.S. Electoral College / Office of the Federal Register, U.S. National Archives and Records Administration.
  5. ^ Kennedy, Helen (2007-01-14). "Wanna be Prez? First get $100M". New York Daily News. Retrieved 2007-02-01.
  6. ^ Smith, Ben (June 19, 2007). "Billion-Dollar elephant inches toward run". The Politico. The Politico. Retrieved July 19, 2007. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help); Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |work= (help)
  7. ^ "Presidential debates set for cyberspace", Beth Fouhy, AP (and found at Msnbc.com), April 23, 2007.
  8. ^ a b "Questions, not answers, highlight YouTube debate". CNN. 2007-07-27. Retrieved 2007-07-25.
  9. ^ The Trail: The GOP YouTube Debate is Back On
  10. ^ ""Obama follows Clinton, McCain to Yahoo Answers". CNET News.com. 2007-03-27."
  11. ^ "Questions, not answers, highlight YouTube debate", CNN, July 24, 2007.
  12. ^ a b "Candidates court young voters online", Stephanie Garry, St. Petersburg Times, June 8, 2007.
  13. ^ Ron Paul's Web of support: He's an 'online natural' USA Today
  14. ^ Ron Paul's Online Rise US News
  15. ^ http://www.hitwise.com/political-data-center/key-candidates.php Hitwise political data center
  16. ^ Rall, Ted (2007-05-17). "Frontrunners by default". Columbia City Paper. Retrieved 2007-05-30. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  17. ^ Balz, Dan (2007-04-27). "Candidates Unite in Criticizing Bush". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2007-05-30. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  18. ^ "Winners & Losers", Chuck Todd, MSNBC, May 15, 2007.
  19. ^ "Campaign Finance: First Quarter 2007 FEC Filings", The Washington Post 2007.
  20. ^ Chuck Todd (2007-05-10). "Will Tsunami Tuesday be an Afterthought?". Retrieved 2007-05-31.
  21. ^ Dick Morris (2007-03-02). "Only Strong Will Survive This Big Bang". Retrieved 2007-03-05.
  22. ^ Cameron, Carl (2007-02-26). "Feb. 5: National Presidential Primary Day?". Fox News. Retrieved 2007-03-06.
  23. ^ Ball, Molly (2007-03-01). "2008 Nomination: GOP feeling need to compete". Las Vegas Review-Journal. Retrieved 2007-03-06.
  24. ^ Dougherty, Danny (2007-09-27). "Presidential primary and caucus dates" (PDF). Stateline.org. Retrieved 2007-10-11.
  25. ^ "America for Gore". Retrieved 2007-10-08.
  26. ^ "Al Gore rules out presidential run after Nobel prize". Agence France-Presse. 17 October 2007. Retrieved 2007-10-17. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  27. ^ Beaumont, Thomas (2007-02-23). "Vilsack drops out of prez race". Des Moines Register. Retrieved 2007-02-26.
  28. ^ "Gilmore drops longshot bid for presidential nomination", Warren Fiske, The Virginian-Pilot, July 14, 2007.
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  63. ^ Intense 2008 election forecast for Ohio
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  70. ^ "Giuliani vs. Clinton", SurveyUSA].

External links

News media
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