2008 United States House of Representatives elections: Difference between revisions

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Template:Future election in the United States Elections for the United States House of Representatives will be held on November 4, 2008, with all of the 435 seats in the House being contested. Since Representatives are elected for two-year terms, those elected will serve in the 111th United States Congress from January 3, 2009 until January 3, 2011.

The 2008 Presidential election, 2008 Senate elections, 2008 state gubernatorial elections will occur on the same date, as well as many other state and local elections. This article discusses important races. For a complete list of all seats, see United States House of Representatives elections, 2008 - complete list.

Composition going into the elections

The current composition of the House stands at 232 Democrats, 198 Republicans, and 5 vacancies.

Vacancies pending in the 110th Congress

Illinois's 14th congressional district — Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) resigned on November 26, 2007. The special primary election will be held on February 5, followed by the special general election on March 8.^[1]

Indiana's 7th congressional district — Representative Julia Carson died on December 15, 2007 of lung cancer. There will be a special election between Democrat Andre Carson (Julia's grandson) and Republican Jon Elrod. The election will be held March 11, 2008 .^[2]

Louisiana's 1st congressional district - There was a vacancy when Republican Bobby Jindal, who was elected governor of Louisiana on October 20, 2007, resigned his congressional seat to assume that office. The special election primary will be held on February 8th 2008 it will be the first closed primary in recent history. Should the primary require a runoff that election will occur on April 5, 2008. The General Election will take place May 3, 2008.

Louisiana's 6th congressional district - Congressman Richard Baker has announced that he would resign from the House to become Director of the Managed Funds Association^[3].The special election primary will be held on February 8th 2008 it will be the first closed primary in recent history. Should the primary require a runoff that election will occur on April 5, 2008. The General Election will take place May 3, 2008.

Mississippi's 1st congressional district - There will be a vacancy when Republican Roger Wicker assumes the Senate seat of Trent Lott, who resigned from the Senate on December 18, 2007. Wicker was appointed on December 31, 2007 by Governor Haley Barbour. The special election to determine who will serve out the remainder of Lott's term until 2013 is scheduled on the same day as the November 2008 general election, and Wicker has stated that he will be running for the remainder of the term. The special election for Wicker's vacant seat will be held in spring 2008.^[4]

Races with no incumbents

Some districts have open races because the incumbents are retiring for health reasons, for professional reasons, or to pursue other offices.

Alabama's 2nd congressional district - Terry Everett (R)
Arizona's 1st congressional district - Rick Renzi (R)
California's 4th congressional district - John Doolittle (R)
California's 12th congressional district - Tom Lantos (D): Health
California's 52nd congressional district - Duncan Hunter (R)
Colorado's 2nd congressional district - Mark Udall (D): Running for U.S. Senate
Colorado's 6th congressional district - Tom Tancredo (R)
Florida's 15th congressional district - Dave Weldon (R)
Illinois's 11th congressional district - Jerry Weller (R)
Illinois's 18th congressional district - Ray LaHood (R)
Louisiana's 4th congressional district - Jim McCrery (R)
Maine's 1st congressional district - Tom Allen (D): Running for U.S. Senate
Minnesota's 3rd congressional district - Jim Ramstad (R)
Mississippi's 3rd congressional district - Chip Pickering (R)
New Mexico's 1st congressional district - Heather Wilson (R): Running for U.S. Senate
New Mexico's 2nd congressional district - Steve Pearce (R): Running for U.S. Senate
New Mexico's 3rd congressional district - Tom Udall (D): Running for U.S. Senate
New Jersey's 3rd congressional district - Jim Saxton (R)
New Jersey's 7th congressional district - Mike Ferguson (R)
New York's 21st congressional district - Michael McNulty (D)
New York's 25th congressional district - Jim Walsh (R)
Ohio's 7th congressional district - Dave Hobson (R)
Ohio's 15th congressional district - Deborah Pryce (R)
Ohio's 16th congressional district - Ralph Regula (R)
Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district - John Peterson (R)
Wyoming's at-large congressional district - Barbara Cubin (R)

Themes

On the Republican side, there are two different types of candidates challenging incumbents in Congressional primaries. First, several anti-war members of the GOP delegation, including Ron Paul (TX-14), Wayne Gilchrest (MD-1) and Walter B. Jones (NC-3), are facing Congressional challenges from pro-war local officials.

The second theme on the Republican side is the higher number of libertarian-leaning Republicans running for office in 2008. The large cluster of limited government candidates includes both challengers to GOP incumbents, such as Vern McKinley (VA-10), as well as challengers to Democratic incumbents like Steve Kagen (WI-8). The surge of candidates is indicative of the frustration from within the libertarian branch of the Republican Party on issues ranging from the War in Iraq and torture policies to government spending and the United States public debt.

Predictions

Shortly after the November 2006 election, Scott Elliott of ElectionProjection.com said that the Democratic majority would be tough to beat - at most the GOP could take back fourteen House seats - two short of a majority.^[5] InTrade.com, the only betting site currently offering odds on control of the House, puts the odds of the Democrats retaining control at about 80% as of mid-November 2007.^[6]

Conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote in May 2007 that he believes there are at least a few House seats that were won by Democrats in 2006 "solely because of GOP corruption," and that such seats would be "the most likely to return to the Republican column in 2008."^[7] He also argues that "a continued sour mood over the Iraq War could produce another massive Republican defeat in 2008 that makes 2006 look tame by comparison. Republicans in Washington generally concede that the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq by next November could mean disaster for the party;" However, he qualifies this by noting that in "previous elections, major House gains by either party have always been followed by losses in the next election."^[8]

Associated Press wrote an article titled, "House GOP fear fallout from ethics cases".^[9] After the 9/11 attacks the Republican Party branded itself as the party of President George W. Bush. Various ethics issues now taint Bush and the GOP. With House Republicans actively protecting the Bush administration in Congressional hearings and numerous Republicans under investigation the voters may decide to punish Republican candidates at the ballot box.

Race ratings

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered "safe" for the incumbent's party.

US House Elections '08 Expert Predictions
State/District	Incumbent	Cook [1]	Rothenberg [2]	UpFront Politics [3]	CQ Politics [4]
AK-AL	Young (R)	Leans R	R Favored	Leans R	Leans R
AZ-1	Renzi (R)	Tossup	Pure Tossup	Tossup	No Clear Favorite
AZ-3	Shadegg (R)	Safe R	Limited Risk	Likely R	R Favored
AZ-5	Mitchell (D)	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
AZ-8	Giffords (D)	Likely D	D Favored	Likely D	Leans D
CA-4	Doolittle (R)	Leans R	R Favored	Tossup	No Clear Favorite
CA-11	McNerney (D)	Leans D	Tossup/Tilts D	Likely D	Leans D
CA-50	Bilbray (R)	Likely R	Limited Risk	Likely R	Safe R
CO-4	Musgrave (R)	Leans R	R Favored	Leans R	Leans R
CT-2	Courtney (D)	Likely D	Limited Risk	Likely D	Leans D
CT-4	Shays (R)	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R
CT-5	Murphy (D)	Likely D	D Favored	Likely D	Leans D
FL-8	Keller (R)	Likely R	R Favored	Safe R	R Favored
FL-13	Buchanan (R)	Likely R	Tossup/Tilts R	Leans R	Leans R
FL-15	Weldon (R)	Safe R	Limited Risk	Safe R	R Favored
FL-16	Mahoney (D)	Leans D	Pure Tossup	Tossup	No Clear Favorite
FL-22	Klein (D)	Safe D	Limited Risk	Likely D	D Favored
FL-24	Feeney (R)	Likely R	Limited Risk	Likely R	R Favored
GA-8	Marshall (D)	Leans D	Tossup/Tilts D	Leans D	Leans D
GA-12	Barrow (D)	Likely D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
ID-1	Sali (R)	Safe R	Limited Risk	Likely R	R Favored
IL-6	Roskam (R)	Likely R	R Favored	Likely R	Likely R
IL-8	Bean (D)	Likely D	Tossup/Tilts D	Likely D	Leans D
IL-10	Kirk (R)	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R
IL-11	Weller (R)	Tossup	Pure Tossup	Tossup	No Clear Favorite
IL-18	LaHood (R)	Likely R	Limited Risk	Likely R	R Favored
IN-2	Donnelly (D)	Likely D	D Favored	Likely D	D Favored
IN-7	Vacant	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Leans D
IN-8	Ellsworth (D)	Likely D	D Favored	Likely D	D Favored
IN-9	Hill (D)	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
KS-2	Boyda (D)	Leans D	Pure Tossup	Leans D	No Clear Favorite
KS-3	Moore (D)	Likely D	D Favored	Likely D	D Favored
KY-3	Yarmouth (D)	Likely D	D Favored	Likely D	D Favored
ME-1	Allen (D)	Safe D	D Favored	Safe D	D Favored
MA-5	Tsongas (D)	Safe D	Limited Risk	Safe D	Leans D
MI-7	Wallberg (R)	Leans R	R Favored	Leans R	Leans R
MI-9	Knollenberg (R)	Likely R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R
MN-1	Walz (D)	Likely D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
MN-3	Ramstad (R)	Tossup	Pure Tossup	Tossup	No Clear Favorite
MN-6	Bachman (R)	Likely R	R Favored	Safe R	R Favored
MO-6	Graves (R)	Likely R	R Favored	Leans R	Leans R
MT-AL	Rehberg (R)	Safe R	Limited Risk	Safe R	R Favored
NV-2	Heller (R)	Safe R	Limited Risk	Safe R	R Favored
NV-3	Porter (R)	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R
NH-1	Shea-Porter (D)	Leans D	Tossup/Tilts D	Leans D	Leans D
NH-2	Hodes (D)	Likely D	Limited Risk	Likely D	Likely D
NJ-3	Saxton (R)	Tossup	Pure Tossup	Tossup	Leans R
NJ-7	Ferguson (R)	Tossup	Leans R	Tossup	Leans R
NM-1	Wilson (R)	Tossup	Pure Tossup	Tossup	No Clear Favorite
NM-2	Pearce (R)	Likely R	Limited Risk	Safe R	Favored
NY-13	Fosella (R)	Likely R	R Favored	Safe R	Safe R
NY-19	Hall (D)	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
NY-20	Gillibrand (D)	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
NY-24	Arcuri (D)	Likely D	Limited Risk	Likely D	D Favored
NY-25	Walsh (R)	Leans R	Leans R	Tossup	Leans R
NY-26	Reynolds (R)	Likely R	Limited Risk	Safe R	R Favored
NY-29	Kuhl (R)	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R
NC-8	Hayes (R)	Leans R	Tossup/Tilts R	Tossup	No Clear Favorite
NC-11	Shuler (D)	Likely D	Limited Risk	Likely D	D Favored
OH-1	Chabot (R)	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R
OH-2	Schmidt (R)	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R
OH-14	LaTourette (R)	Likely R	Limited Risk	Safe R	Safe R
OH-15	Pryce (R)	Tossup	Tossup/Tilts D	Tossup	No Clear Favorite
OH-16	Regula (R)	Tossup	Leans R	Tossup	No Clear Favorite
OH-18	Space (D)	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	Leans D
OR-5	Hooley (D)	Safe D	Limited Risk	Safe D	Likely D
PA-3	English (R)	Likely R	Limited Risk	Leans R	Leans R
PA-4	Altmire (D)	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D
PA-6	Gerlach (R)	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R	Leans R
PA-7	Sestak (D)	Likely D	D Favored	Safe D	Safe D
PA-8	Murphy (D)	Likely D	D Favored	Likely D	D Favored
PA-10	Carney (D)	Leans D	Pure Tossup	Leans D	Leans D
PA-15	Dent (R)	Likely R	Limited Risk	Likely R	R Favored
PA-18	Murphy (R)	Likely R	R Favored	Likely R	R Favored
TX-17	Edwards (D)	Safe D	Limited Risk	Safe D	Likely D
TX-22	Lampson (D)	Leans D	Pure Tossup	Leans D	Leans D
TX-23	Rodriguez (D)	Likely D	D Favored	Likely D	Leans D
VA-2	Drake (R)	Likely R	R Favored	Leans R	R Favored
WA-8	Reichart (R)	Leans R	Tossup/Tilts R	Leans R	Leans R
WV-2	Capito (R)	Safe R	R Favored	Likely R	Leans R
WI-8	Kagen (D)	Leans D	Leans D	Tossup	Leans D
WY-AL	Cubin (R)	Safe R	R Favored	Tossup	Leans R

Factors

The Democrats control the 110th United States Congress and the House of Representatives.

Factors that could make the races seen below competitive include:

Factor	Reason	Example
Age	The incumbent will be at least 70 years of age on Election Day 2008, and may opt to retire rather than run for another term, leaving their seat open.	Several representatives are at least 70 years of age, with the oldest being Ralph Hall (R-TX), age 84. So far, three representatives 70 years of age or older, all Republicans, have decided not to seek re-election.
District Demographics	The incumbent represents a district that leans or strongly favors the opposing party. For example, an incumbent Republican representing a district that went to John Kerry or barely went to George W. Bush in 2004 could be vulnerable, especially if the incumbent received no more than 55% of the vote. There are, as of the 2006 elections, about 70 Democratic seats won by Bush in 2004, compared to 4 Republican seats won by Kerry. This is a change from (as of 2004) 44 Democrats in seats Bush won in both 2000 and 2004, as opposed to 11 Republicans in districts won by Gore and Kerry.	Christopher Shays (R-CT) and Chet Edwards (D-TX) represent districts that favor the opposing party. Additionally, Tom Davis (R-VA) represents a swing (but Democratic-trending) district while Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) represents a district that is politically balanced and known for competitive races.
Governor Controversies	Some House races could also be affected by an unpopular governor if the incumbent's party is the same as that of the governor. For example, some Indiana and Missouri races involving incumbent Republicans could be affected by the unpopularity of their Republican governors.	Mark Souder (R-IN), Ron Lewis and Geoff Davis (both R-KY), all represent states with unpopular or controversial governors from their parties.
Health Issues	The incumbent has constant health issues and could either be forced into early retirement, forgo plans for a re-election bid, or die during their term in Congress.	Elton Gallegly (R-CA) and Bill Young (R-FL) pondered retirement for health reasons before running for re-election 2006. Additionally, five members of Congress (3 Republicans, 2 Democrats) died during the 110th Congress.
Higher office aspirations	The incumbent might consider running for higher political office, whether it is for a U.S. Senate seat, the Governor's Mansion, or for mayor of a major city.	Mark Udall (D-CO) will run for the U.S. Senate seat of retiring Senator Wayne Allard (R-CO). Bobby Jindal (R-LA) was elected Governor of Louisiana. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) is rumored to be considering a run for mayor of New York City in 2009.
Redistricting	Some incumbents could become vulnerable if redistricting affects their districts to the point that it favors the opposing party. For example, a Democrat could become vulnerable if his Democratic-leaning district becomes more Republican.	Two recent redistrictings, in Texas in 2003 and in Georgia in 2005, have made some Democratic districts more vulnerable. In 2006, Georgia Democrats John Barrow and Jim Marshall faced tough re-election bids.
Scandals	The incumbent is involved in a highly publicized political scandal or whose district was previously represented by a scandal-plagued representative from the opposing party.	The Jack Abramoff Indian lobbying scandal affected several members of Congress, many of whom were defeated in 2006. Some key Abramoff donor recipients, such as John Doolittle (R-CA) are still in office. Additionally, Democrats Nick Lampson (D-TX) and Tim Mahoney (D-FL) took the respective districts of Tom DeLay (R-TX) and Mark Foley (R-FL), both of which heavily favor Republicans, in the previous election.

2008 presidential campaign impact

The 2008 presidential campaign could have positive or negative effects on the chances of election for some House candidates if the background, home state, ideology/policies or general perception of their party's 2008 candidate affect party support or turnout in their particular district.

Democrats

Hillary Clinton could be potentially damaging for Democrats in rural districts in the South and West such as Heath Shuler (NC-11) and Jim Matheson (UT-2), but she might help Democrats in New York State (e.g., Michael Arcuri (NY-24)), the Northeast (Paul Hodes (NH-2)), Upper Midwest (Steve Kagen (WI-8)), the West (Jerry McNerney (CA-11)), and women candidates in general.
Barack Obama could aid Democrats in districts with significant African-American populations such as Sanford Bishop (GA-2) and Al Green (TX-9) while possibly harming Democrats in districts with a past history of segregation politics such as Charlie Melancon (LA-3).
John Edwards could help Democratic candidates in North Carolina, such as Heath Shuler (NC-11), and in other Southern states as well.

Republicans

A Rudy Giuliani candidacy could impact Democrats holding either a heavily Italian-American district such as Chris Murphy (CT-5) or representing a swing district in the New York City area such as John Hall (NY-19), while possibly improving prospects for vulnerable area GOP congressmen such as Christopher Shays (CT-4). Giuliani's Northeastern roots and moderate politics would be plus for vulnerable or moderate Republicans in Democratic-leaning districts (such as Shays) but could harm conservative candidates in the South and West.
A John McCain candidacy could aid Republican chances in Arizona and other western states such as in the open seat of Rick Renzi (AZ-1) but harm Republican efforts in vocal anti-war districts. McCain's moderate policies on some issues might help moderate Republican candidates, but could harm conservative candidates.
If Mitt Romney is the Republican candidate, Democrats representing districts with significant Mormon populations such as Jim Matheson (UT-2) could be vulnerable. It is unlikely that congressional races in Massachusetts, where Romney was governor, would be impacted, since Republican ranks in Massachusetts are considerably thin in comparison with those of Democrats. His Mormon faith and allegations of inconsistency of issues such as abortion could harm conservative candidates
Additionally, a vocal social conservative Republican nominee, such as Mike Huckabee, might harm GOP prospects in the Blue States but could help in the Red States. The possibility of a third-party presidential bid by religious conservatives if Giuliani is the GOP nominee could also have disastrous ramifications for Republicans in both the presidential and the congressional elections, particularly in the South and West.

Key races by state

Alabama

Alabama's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Terry Everett (R), who will be 71 in 2008, is retiring. This district covers southeastern Alabama, including Dothan and Montgomery. The Republican nominee will be favored to hold this district — George W. Bush won 67% in 2004 here (Cook PVI R+13). Republican state Senator Harri Anne Smith has announced that she is running, Republican State rep. Jay Love will also run.[5] Other possible Republican candidates are minister Wess Howell Love, State Representative Greg Wren, and State Senator David Grimes.[6] Meanwhile, Democrats are recruiting Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, State Representative Terry Spicer, and State Senator Jimmy Holley.[7]

Alaska

Alaska's at-large congressional district— Incumbent Don Young (R), who is often referred to as "Alaska's third Senator" since the district he represents covers the entire state, will most likely stand for reelection. Young will be 75 in 2008. Once considered politically secure, Young recently became the target of a serious corruption investigation involving the misuse of campaign funds. Young's age, alleged corruption, and stance on federal pork has now made him a likely target for both parties. Recently, State Representative Gabrielle LeDoux has announced she will challenge Young in the GOP primary [8]. A strong primary challenge was once rumored from State Sen. Lesil McGuire until McGuire became the target of an ethics investigation as well [9]. Among Democrats, former state Representative Ethan Berkowitz, the 2006 nominee for Lieutenant Governor, has announced, as has former State Democratic Party Chair Jake Metcalfe and 2006 Democratic Party nominee Diane Benson who received over 40% of the vote (93,879) in the last election against Young's 56% (132,743). [10]. Bush won 61% of the vote here in 2004 (Cook PVI R+14). A December 11, 2007 poll has Young trailing Democrat Ethan Berkowitz 49% to 42%.[11]

Arizona

Arizona's 1st congressional district— In August 2007, incumbent Rick Renzi (R) announced he would not seek re-election, ^[10] four months after the FBI raided Renzi's family business as part of a federal investigation. Renzi received only 52% of the vote compared to 44% for his Democratic opponent – Sedona civil rights attorney Ellen Simon – in 2006; George W. Bush won 54% of the vote in this northern Arizona district in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+2). So far, Winslow Mayor Allan Affeldt, attorney Howard Shanker, state Representative Ann Kirkpatrick and publisher and former Phoenix TV newscaster Mary Kim Titla are declared candidates. (Simon had announced her intention to run again, but then dropped out in May 2007, citing personal reasons.) The DCCC has talked with attorney Jim Ledbetter. Other potential Democratic candidates include Arizona Department of Environmental Quality director Steve Owens; 2006 U.S. Senate candidate and wealthy real estate developer Jim Pederson, former Casa Grande mayor Bob Mitchell, who is the brother of Democratic Congressman Harry Mitchell; Pinal County attorney Carter Olson; ^[11] On the Republican side of the aisle, public affairs consultant Sydney Ann Hay, who ran unsuccessfully in 2002, has announced her candidacy [12]. Other potential Republican candidates include state Senator Tom O'Halloran, and and former Navajo County Supervisor Lewis Tenney.

Arizona's 3rd congressional district— Outspoken conservative Republican John Shadegg has consistently been re-elected in this Republican-leaning district (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+6) in the northern Phoenix suburbs which gave George W. Bush 57.9 percent of the vote in 2004. However, Democratic tax attorney Bob Lord has outraised Shadegg in the first quarter of 2007 and even has more cash on hand compared to Shadegg, which could result in an unusually competitive race. However, Shadegg's campaign team has noted that Shadegg's funds are smaller than expected due to Shadegg donating most of the money in 2006 to fellow Republicans in a last-ditch, albeit lackluster attempt to retain control of Congress. [13] A campaign spokesperson has also noted that Shadegg will be well-funded. Shadegg's 2006 opponent, consultant Herb Paine, has announced his support for Independent candidate Annie Loyd. Shadegg's district was previously held by Arizona's junior United States Senator, Republican Jon Kyl. Libertarian Mark Yannone is also running [14].

Arizona's 5th congressional district— Freshman U.S. Representative Harry Mitchell (D) unseated conservative Republican J.D. Hayworth by 50% to 47% in this Republican-leaning district (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4) in the northeastern Phoenix suburbs that gave George W. Bush 54% of the vote in 2004. The largely Republican nature of this district make a tough 2008 race certain, though Mitchell, who has a government complex in Tempe named after him, has won a lot of tough elections in the past. He will be seriously opposed in 2008. Former state Representative Laura Knaperek,[15] and Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, have announced their candidacies, and State Representative Mark Anderson has formed an exploratory committee.

Arizona's 8th congressional district— Democrat Gabrielle Giffords defeated conservative Republican Randy Graf by a 54% to 42% margin in 2006. If Republicans recruit a moderate candidate similar to the district's previous U.S. Representative, Jim Kolbe, Giffords could have a difficult re-election bid. Republicans are hoping that state Senator Tim Bee runs in 2008. They have been heartened by Bee's announcement that he is forming an exploratory committee for a possible campaign [16]. Bush narrowly won here with 52% to 47% for John Kerry in 2004 (This district's Cook Partisan Voting Index is R+1). Afghanistan Veteran Derek Tidball is also running as an Independent [17].

California

California's 4th congressional district— On January 10th, nine-term incumbent John Doolittle announced he would retire when his term expires in 2009, to the relief of his fellow Republicans. He has been associated with the corruption scandals of Jack Abramoff and defense contractor Brent Wilkes. In 2006, Doolittle received only 49% of the vote in 2006 compared to 46% for his Democratic opponent, Charlie Brown. Brown announced in February 2007 that he would run again in 2008, and outraised Doolittle in the first and second quarters of 2007; as of June 30th, he had a net cash balance of $251,000; Doolittle had a negative balance of $32,000.^[12] The FBI raided Doolitte's home in April 2007 in search of incriminating evidence ^[13], and speculation abounds that Doolittle will be indicted. This district leans Republican - George W. Bush won 61% here in 2004 (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+11) - and normally could be expected to be a safe seat for the GOP. However, many pundits believed Doolittle faced almost certain defeat if he ran again. Counter-terrorism consultant Eric England and former State Senator Rico Oller are running, and the well-known Oller is gathering many key endorsements [18]. Other Republicans who might run include former Congressman Doug Ose [19].

California's 11th congressional district— Republicans will look to oppose Jerry McNerney (D), who defeated scandal-plagued incumbent Richard Pombo in 2006 with 53%. The district includes portions of the rural Sacramento Valley, as well as parts of the East Bay. It has a slight Republican lean (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+3), but has become more Democratic recently with the arrival of transplants from the Bay Area. Pombo has ruled out a rematch. Former Assemblyman Dean Andal has announced his candidacy [20]. State Assemblyman Guy Houston, who was thought to be a potential candidate, announced in August that he would instead run for a seat on the Contra Costa County Board of Supervisors. Bush won here with 54% to 46% in 2004.

California's 12th congressional district— Tom Lantos, the chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee, is retiring after 13 terms. Democratic former state Senator Jackie Speier is likely to run. [21]. The district includes most of San Mateo County. Like most Bay Area districts, it is overwhelmingly Democratic; whoever wins the Democratic primary is almost certain to win in November. Barry Hermanson of the Green Party [22] and Gerardo Sanchez of the Socialist Workers Party are also Candidates [23].

California's 52nd congressional district— Duncan Hunter (R) has announced he will be retiring from Congress in 2008 due to his presidential bid. His son, Duncan Duane Hunter, is a candidate for the seat, although currently only his wife is actively campaigning, as Duncan D. Hunter is stationed with the Marines in Iraq. Other candidates include Santee City Councilman Brian Jones, Ken King and local radio talk show host Mark Larson. George W. Bush won 60% in this heavily Republican district in suburban San Diego in 2004 (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+9).

Colorado

Colorado's 2nd congressional district— With the retirement of Senator Wayne Allard, popular incumbent Mark Udall (D) will run for Senate, which will leave an open seat in this district. However, Democrats hold a strong edge in this district (John Kerry won 59% here)(Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+8), as it is centered around heavily Democratic Boulder. Announced candidates include Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Colorado Conservation Trust Director Will Shafroth, and businessman Jared Polis. Among Republicans, former Eagle County Commissioner Tom Stone is a possible candidate. The race could get interesting if Boulder Mayor Mark Ruzzin chooses to run as the Green Party candidate. Internet Businessman Bill Hammons is also running as the Unity Party candidate [24].

Colorado's 3rd congressional district— After an easy reelection in 2006, Democratic incumbent John Salazar was expected to face only token opposition in 2008. But that might not happen. Republican Delta County Commissioner Wayne Wolf had considered running for the U.S. Senate, but state and national Republicans are trying to persuade him to challenge Salazar instead, and Wolf is not ruling out a House bid [25].

Colorado's 4th congressional district— Conservative Marilyn Musgrave (R), known for her staunch opposition to gay marriage, won only after winning a plurality (46%) of the vote against Angie Paccione (D) and a strong Reform Party challenge from Eric Eidsness, who managed to bevy up 11% of the vote. That, along with her 51% showing in 2004 despite George W. Bush winning 58% of the vote in this eastern Colorado district that includes the Fort Collins area (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+9), could make her vulnerable in 2008. Democrats suffered a setback when state Senator Brandon Schaffer suddenly dropped out, citing his party's failure to clear the field. Still, Democrats may have at least two candidates competing to take on Musgrave, including Betsy Markey, businesswoman and regional director for Senator Ken Salazar [26]. Also, Eidsness recently switched again (life-long Republican to Reform Party last year) and became a Democrat, which could have fueled a potential rematch with Musgrave in 2008 but he announced he would not run. 2006 nominee Angie Paccione briefly launched a campaign as well, but left the race in September 2007.

Colorado's 5th congressional district— Freshman Doug Lamborn (R) could face a primary challenge from a more moderate Republican with similarities to the district's previous representative, Joel Hefley. Lamborn narrowly won a nasty multi-candidate primary in 2006 and despite worries of vulnerability (Hefley did not endorse Lamborn citing his "sleazy" campaign), still won by a 59% to 41% margin, less than normal for a Republican in that area, but still comfortable. The district is based in heavily Republican Colorado Springs (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+16). Jeff Crank, who (in 2006) very narrowly lost the GOP primary to Lamborn despite Hefley's endorsement, might challenge Lamborn in the 2008 primary for this seat. Recently, Lamborn got bad press when two constituents accused him of making a threatening phone call in response to a critical letter they wrote [27]. In early October of 2007, retired Major General Bentley Rayburn, who finished third place in the 2006 Republican primary, announced that he would also run again in 2008 [28]. Independent Rich Hand is also running [29].

Colorado's 6th congressional district— This seat will become open in 2008 as Tom Tancredo (R) has decided to retire to run for president. His district includes suburbs of Denver. However, Tancredo's seat is considered to be the most Republican-dominated district of the Denver-area seats (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+10) (and also one of the wealthiest in the nation). Tancredo was the second highest vote getter for a Republican congressional candidate statewide (59%-40%) in 2006, just behind Doug Lamborn in the 5th district. The district includes Columbine High School, which was devastated in a tragic 1999 school massacre, although Democratic attempts to target him on his outspoken views on gun rights in the 2000 election came up short (he prevailed 53% to 44%). Republican Secretary of State Mike Coffman has announced his candidacy. Other possible Republican candidates include state Senator Ted Harvey, state Senator Tom Wiens, Colorado House Minority Leader David Balmer, and former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton.

Colorado's 7th congressional district— Freshmen Ed Perlmutter (D) won 55% of the vote in this suburban Denver district that narrowly went to John Kerry with 52% in 2004 (Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2). The district's voter registration is split, with independents constituting a slim plurality of 35% compared to Democrats (34%) and Republicans (31%).

Connecticut

Connecticut's 2nd congressional district— In one of the closest U.S. House races of 2006, Joe Courtney (D) unseated three-term incumbent Rob Simmons by 82 votes. Courtney's chance at reelection increased when Simmons decided against a rematch. Republicans mentioned as possible challengers include Bozrah First Selectman Keith Robbins. Former Groton sub base commander Sean Sullivan has announced his candidacy [30] However, John Kerry won 55% here in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+8), so Courtney may be hard to unseat, especially in a presidential year. Former State Department Of Environmental Protection Scientist Scott Deshefy is running as a Green Party candidate [31] [32].

Connecticut's 4th congressional district— Chris Shays (R) won 51% of the vote in 2006 and 52% in 2004 in a district that went to John Kerry with 53% in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+5). In September, 2007, Shays indicated that if he was not given the top Republican seat on the Governmental Oversight Committee, he would retire. The only Republican House member in New England, he will likely be a top target of Democrats if he runs in 2008. 2006 U.S. Senate candidate Ned Lamont may run, although he lost in this district to incumbent Senator Joe Lieberman, whom Shays had endorsed. Former Goldman Sachs executive and community activist Jim Himes announced his candidacy in April 2007. Other possible Democratic candidates include state Senators Bob Duff and Andrew MacDonald. Former professional hockey player Mike Richter, once considered a possible candidate, has announced that he is not interested in running in 2008. Lowell P. Weicker, Jr. may also try to reclaim his old seat. Richard Z. Duffee is running again as the Green Party Candidate after withdrawing form the 2006 race [33].

Connecticut's 5th congressional district— Arguably the most conservative district in Connecticut - although it went to John Kerry with 50% to 48% in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+4). Freshman Chris Murphy (D) could be vulnerable, despite having unseated 24-year incumbent Nancy Johnson with 56% of the vote in 2006. State Senator David Cappiello (R) has announced that he will run [34], and state Senator Sam Caligiuri may run as well. GOP state chairman Chris Healy dismissed claims that Murphy's large campaign warchest of $420,000 in the first quarter of 2007 may scare off potential challengers, as Cappiello filed as a candidate in April 2007.[35] National Republicans have begun running radio ads in the summer of 2007 claiming Murphy has adopted special interest fundraising politics he had claimed to oppose. In addition, Cappiello has accused Murphy of missing important votes [36]. Canton, Attorney Harold Burbank is running as a Green Party candidate [37] [38].

Florida

Florida's 5th congressional district— Moderate Republican Ginny Brown-Waite has attracted a serious primary challenger in this sprawling Nature Coast district. As of November, Jim King has already begun a media campaign attacking Brown-Waite from the right and appealing to the conservative Christians who exert a serious influence in the local Republican Party.^[14] While King remains a longshot to unseat Brown-Waite, a lengthy and divisive primary campaign of this sort has the potential to drain the incumbent's campaign resources, splinter her support, and cause her to take up more conservative stances that would appeal less to moderate voters in the general election. No serious Democratic candidate has yet to announce a candidacy, though one is likely in this fast-growing Central Florida district where Republicans retain a slight edge. (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5)

Florida's 8th congressional district— In 2006, incumbent Ric Keller (R), author of the "Cheeseburger Bill", was reelected by less than expected. Orlando businessman Charlie Stuart, who polled 46%, is running again in 2008. Environmental activist Corbett Kroehler is also running. After the November 2006 election, Keller announced that he would break his 2000 pledge to serve only four terms. Because of this, conservative radio host Todd Long has filed with the FEC to challenge Keller in the Republican primary. Democrat and former state prosecutor Mike Smith is also challenging Keller^[15]. George W. Bush won the district in 2004 with 55% of the vote(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+3).

Florida's 13th congressional district— Freshman Vern Buchanan (R) was certified as having won his first term by a 369-vote margin over banker Christine Jennings, but Jennings challenged the election in court. Although Buchanan was seated by the House, the House has made no final decision on the matter, and it is possible that the House will replace Buchanan with Jennings sometime this term. Regardless of what the House does, this is expected to be a competitive race in 2008. In mid-July, Jennings announced she would run again in 2008.^[16] George W. Bush won 56% of the district's vote in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4).

Florida's 15th congressional district— Seven-term incumbent Dave Weldon had easily won re-election contests for a decade. Weldon is retiring in 2008. This will likely be a competitive race. Former Brevard County commissioner Nancy Higgs will run as a Democrat. Among Republicans, possible candidates include state Senator Mike Haridopolos, state Senator Bill Posey, state Representative Thad Altman, and state Senator Stan Mayfield [39].

Florida's 16th congressional district— This is normally a solidly Republican district, so consensus is that Tim Mahoney's 50% to 48% win in 2006 can be attributed to the Mark Foley scandal. The Republican nominee Joe Negron's campaign was harmed by the fact that Foley's name remained on the ballot even though he was not a candidate. Thus Mahoney may have a competitive race in 2008. George W. Bush won this district by a 10-point margin in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+2). Negron has announced that he will not run again. Conservative state Representative Gayle Harrell (R) has announced her candidacy but faces primary opposition from Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman Hal Valeche, and wealthy attorney Tom Rooney. Mahoney has raised some $400,000 for his re-election in the first quarter of 2007.

Florida's 21st congressional district Republican incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart has faced nothing more than token opposition since his first election. But this year, he faces the toughest race of his career. Democratic former Hialeah Mayor Raul Raul Martinez has announced his candidacy, and he is very well-known in the area [40].

Florida's 22nd congressional district— First-term incumbent Ron Klein (D) might face a challenge in this Fort Lauderdale area district that barely went to John Kerry in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+4). Republicans suffered a setback when Boca Raton Mayor Steven Abrams announced he would not run. Now, some local political observers are saying that the GOP will not make a serious effort to target Klein. Klein's large campaign treasury may scare off any remaining potential challengers. Former Army officer and Iraq War veteran Allen West and former Navy pilot Mark Flagg both have announced they are running. Neurosurgeon Robert Brodner is also a potential candidate.

Florida's 24th congressional district— Tom Feeney (R) could have a challenging race in 2008. Feeney's district includes the Orlando suburbs as well as the Space Coast of Florida. Feeney was reelected by 58% to 42%, less than expected especially considering that Feeney reportedly drew the district for himself while serving as speaker of the state house. Democrats have recruited former state Representative Suzanne Kosmas to challenge Feeney in 2008 [41]. 2006 challenger Clint Curtis has announced he will run again. George W. Bush won 55% here in 2004(Cook partisan Voting Index of R+3).

Georgia

Georgia's 8th congressional district— Jim Marshall (D) survived a challenge from former Rep. Mac Collins (R) in 2006 by 1,752 votes and will face a tough re-election bid in 2008, which might prompt him to challenge U.S. Senator Saxby Chambliss for his U.S. Senate seat instead. Retired Air Force Major General Rick Goddard has announced that he would run [42], and his background may have great appeal in a district with a large number of veterans, though Marshall's own military background and well-established credibility on military issues may cancel this out somewhat. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 election, would have given George W. Bush 61% of the vote in 2004 (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+8). Also a potential Republican challenger is state Senator Ross Tolleson, and Collins may seek a rematch.

Georgia's 12th congressional district— John Barrow (D) may face a tough challenge from Republicans in 2008 after an 864-vote win over former Rep. Max Burns (R) in their 2006 rematch. Barrow had defeated then-incumbent Burns in 2004 with 52% of the vote, but in 2007 Burns accepted a job with North Georgia College and State University, making a second rematch unlikely. The present district, which was implemented starting with the 2006 election, would have given John Kerry 51% in 2004 (Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2). Republican former Augusta Mayor Bob Young may challenge Barrow.

Idaho

Idaho's 1st congressional district — Conservative Republican Bill Sali won this open seat race with 49.9 percent of the vote in 2006, a mediocre showing at best in this heavily Republican district that gave Bush 68 percent in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+19). Also, as a member of the Idaho Legislature Sali caused considerable controversy by repeatedly citing a link between breast cancer and abortion without being able to provide evidence. Although Sali was elected the GOP freshman leader in the House, his term in Washington thus far has been relatively quiet. Sali remains controversial and has drawn a primary challenger in Iraq War veteran Matt Salisbury.^[17].Meanwhile, Larry Grant, Sali's 2006 Democratic opponent, will run for the seat again in 2008.^[18] Grant is believed to be a strong Demcoratic candidate for this seat. Another Democrat running is retired military officer and counterterrorism consultant Rand Lewis. Walt Minnick, a Boise businessman and the Democratic Idaho U.S. Senate nominee in 1996, has also announced that he was seriously thinking of running. Rand C. Lewis a ret. Col. in the US Army & Professor of Military Science at Duquesne University will also run as a Democrat. All this, combined with a more competitive political landscape in the rapidly growing Boise area (where Democrats picked up five seats in the Idaho Legislature in 2006), may make this race worth watching in 2008.

Illinois

Illinois's 3rd congressional district— Dan Lipinski (D) has drawn three challengers in the Democratic Primary. Palos Hills Mayor Gerald "Jerry" Bennett, Mark Pera of Western Springs, who is president of the Lyons Township High School board of education, and Jim Capparelli of Chicago have all filed to run. There are also two Republicans, and Jerome Pohlen [43] of the Green Party. Although the 3rd has traditionally been the most conservative of the Chicago-based districts, whoever wins the Democratic primary will be a prohibitive favorite in November.

Illinois's 6th congressional district— Freshman Peter Roskam (R) won his first term in Congress by a close 51% to 49% margin. This west suburban district was once solidly Republican, but has become more Democratic in recent years. It narrowly went to George W. Bush with 53% to 47% in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+3). Democrats include Stan Jagla and Jill Morgenthaler, a retired U.S. Army Reserve Colonel and Iraq war veteran.

Illinois's 8th congressional district— Melissa Bean (D) gained national attention by toppling longtime incumbent Phil Crane in 2004. However, the 8th is considered the most Republican of the Chicagoland districts (and by some accounts, all of Illinois), and Bean has had a perennial spot on Republican target lists. Republican candidates include; Ken Arnold, Steve Greenberg and Kirk Morris. Bean is also being challenged within the Democratic primary by anti-war candidate Randi Scheurer ^[19]. Iain Abernathy is the expected challenger from the Moderate Party ^[20]. (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5)

Illinois's 10th congressional district— Mark Kirk (R) survived a surprisingly close race in 2006, winning by 53% to 47%. The district, the state's wealthiest, went for John Kerry with 54% in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+4). In December 2006, Kirk disclaimed any interest in the 2008 U.S. Senate race against the Democratic incumbent, Dick Durbin. Kirk's 2006 opponent Dan Seals will run again, and attorney and former Clinton presidential adviser Jay Footlik is also running. David Kalbfleisch The founder of the Arlington Heights chapter of the Green Party has announced that he will run for the seat.^[21] Kalbfleisch is a Navy veteran and member of Iraq Veterans Against the War. [44]

Illinois's 11th congressional district— Jerry Weller will be retiring at the end of his seventh term. ^[22] Weller (R) won 55% of the vote in a district that narrowly went for George W. Bush in 2004 with 53% to 47% for John Kerry(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+1). Republicans include former White House official Jimmy Lee, New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann, and Terry Heenan. State Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson is running as a Democrat. Jason Wallace, a veteran of the Iraq War and chair of the IBHE-SAC[45], is running as a Green Party candidate.

Illinois's 14th congressional district— Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) has announced his intention to resign, indicating that it would likely be by the end of 2007. ^[23] The Mark Foley congressional page scandal has caused some damage to his reputation even though Hastert won 60% of the vote in 2006 and 69% in 2004, when George W. Bush won with 55% in this district to 45% for John Kerry(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5). Conservative state Senator Chris Lauzen officially began his campaign for congress on September 19, 2007. Other GOP candidates include; businessman Jim Oberweis. ^[24] A few Democrats have declared intent to run. Navy Veteran John Laesch ran against Hastert in 2006 and has expressed intent to run in 2008.^[25] Jotham Stein, a Geneva attorney and Bill Foster, a businessman and Fermilab physicist, are also running.^[26] Geneva businessman Joe Serra has also expressed interest in the race.^[27]

Illinois's 16th congressional district— Donald Manzullo (R) defeated a one-term Democratic incumbent in 1992 and hasn't had a difficult contest since. However, he may face a serious opponent in Robert G. “Bob” Abboud (D), the village president of Barrington Hills, a wealthy Chicago suburb. Abboud is the president of RGA Labs Inc. and reportedly quite wealthy.^[28] Bush won here with 55% to 45% in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4). Scott Summers who was elected as a trustee of McHenry County College in 2005 is running as the Green Party candidate [46].

Illinois's 18th congressional district— Ray LaHood (R) has announced that he won't seek reelection in 2008 ^[29] The district, based in Peoria, was once represented by former House Minority Leader Bob Michel. The race is expected to be the first truly competitive contests in the district in decades. It leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5). State Rep. Aaron Schock (R) has announced his candidacy ^[30]

Illinois's 19th congressional district— John Shimkus (R) had his reputation tarnished for his role in the page scandal. Shimkus was the chair of the page board. He was reelected with 61% against Danny Stover. Shimkus spent $826,242 to Stover's $114,732[47]. Stover had previously been a member of the Centralia City Council. [48]. Bush won 60% here in 2004. Retired coal miner Vic Roberts is also running on the Green Party ballot line [49]

Indiana

Indiana's 2nd congressional district— In 2006, Joe Donnelly (D) won by 54% to 46% in this swing district that went to Bush with 55% of the vote in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4), largely as a result of displeasure with the GOP both nationally and at the state level. Even though the unpopularity of Governor Mitch Daniels may make it difficult for Republicans to take back the seat in 2008, they will look to challenge Donnelly. Possible GOP candidates include state Senator Thomas Weatherwax and Kokomo City Controller Phil Williams.

Indiana's 7th congressional district— After being diagnosed with terminal lung cancer, incumbent Julia Carson (D) has announced that she will not seek a 7th term. [50] On Saturday, December 15, she passed away. The district is centered around urban Indianapolis and leans Democratic. Democratic Marion County treasurer Michael Rodman has announced that he would seek to succeed Carson should she choose to retire. Carson's grandson and Indianapolis City-County Council member Andre Carson, is the Democratic nominee for the special election and State Representative Jon Elrod will runfor the Republicans. Kerry won 58% here (Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9). The special election will be March 11, 2008.

Indiana's 8th congressional district— In 2006, freshman Brad Ellsworth (D) unseated John Hostettler (R) by 61% to 39%, surprising even his fellow Democrats by the margin. He will be a formidable candidate for reelection, but no incumbent can rest easy in this district, known as "The Bloody 8th" for its history of rejecting incumbents and hotly contested races. Republicans suffered a setback when Gibson County Prosecutor Rob Krieg announced that he wouldn't run. Greg Goode, a government affairs official at Indiana State, is a declared candidate [51]. Bush won 61% here to 39% in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+9).

Indiana's 9th congressional district— Baron Hill (D) narrowly won his old job back by 50% to 46% in 2006. The district went to George W. Bush with 59% of the vote in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7). Hill and Mike Sodrel (R) have faced off in three consecutive elections, Hill winning the first and third and Sodrel the second on a recount, so the outcome in 2008 is anything but certain. To the delight and relief of his fellow Republicans, Sodrel has announced that he will run again [52]. Eric Schansberg the 2006 Libertarian candidate has announced he is again seeking his parties nomination for the District 9 race [53]

Iowa

Iowa's 1st congressional district Bruce Braley (D) would seem a logical target for Republicans. But while Braley is the first Democrat to represent the district since 1979, it's likely that he's begun a new trend. The makeup of the district favors Democrats, and the DCCC will do everything in its power to maintain this Midwest foothold. Absent a challenge from a truly compelling Republican challenge, Braley will be safe in 2008.^[31]

Iowa's 2nd congressional district David Loebsack (D) The fight Loebsack had to put up in 2006, you’d think 2008 would be a tight race. Loebsack unseated thirty-year incumbent Jim Leach to win by just over 5,000 votes. This time around, things are looking a little better. Loebsack is considerably popular in this Democratic-leaning district, so a second term looks likely.^[31]

Iowa's 4th congressional district Tom Latham (R) Dispite the ever-so-slight Democratic advantage in the district, Republican incumbent Tom Latham has never experienced any particular difficulty getting reelected. This time around is shaping up to be more of the same.^[31]

Kansas

Kansas's 2nd congressional district— Nancy Boyda (D) narrowly upset Jim Ryun (R) in 2006. Her district gave Bush 58% to 40% in 2004, and she could be vulnerable, as her victory was aided by infighting between the moderate and conservative factions of the state GOP, which hurt turnout for Ryun. On January 29, 2007, Ryun announced that he would challenge Boyda for his old seat in 2008. However, in 2006, Ryun was damaged over a Washington, D.C. real estate purchase and Boyda may very well revive the issue. More recently, state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R) announced that she would also run, but conservatives dislike her. Another possible candidate is state Rep Lee Tafanelli (R), an Iraq War veteran. The campaign for the GOP nomination has already turned nasty, with Jenkins accusing Ryun of having ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Kansas's 3rd congressional district— Dennis Moore (D) represents a district that voted for Bush with 55% to 45% in 2004. It is centered around the western suburbs of Kansas City, including Overland Park, and heavily Democratic Lawrence, home of the University of Kansas. Moore won easily in 2006, but had difficulty in winning his previous four terms. He faces another tough race in 2008. State Senator Nick Jordan (R), who is supported by both conservatives and moderates, announced on August 21 that he will run [54].

Kentucky

Kentucky's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Democrat John Yarmuth narrowly unseated Republican Anne Northup in 2006 with 51%. Republicans will try to regain this Louisville-centered district they held for 10 years, although it usually votes Democratic. Former Federal prosecutor Erwin Roberts had announced that he was running [55]. However, he recently dropped out due to National Guard responsibilities, and now Northup is seriously considering a comeback bid [56]. John Kerry won this district with 52% in 2004.

Louisiana

Louisiana's 2nd congressional district: Incumbent Bill Jefferson has been indicted on 16 counts of corruption as a result it is unlikely he will seek reelection. Even if he does seek reelection he will probably face serious opposition in the Democratic primary. The district includes New Orleans and some of its suburbs. Possible Democratic candidates are State Senator and Speaker Pro Tempore of the Louisiana House of Representatives Karen Carter and New Orleans mayor Ray Nagin.

Louisiana's 4th congressional district: Incumbent Jim McCrery is retriring. It contains northwestern Louisiana. It includes the cities of Shreveport, DeRidder and Natchitoches. The district usually votes Republican, but not reliably, as Bill Clinton won it comfortably in 1996. Former Shreveport City Attorney Jerry Jones, who ran a credible race for Mayor in 2006, is likely to run as a Republican. On the Democratic side Patti Cox, local party organizer and environmental consultant and 2006 candidate is likely to run again. Former two-term Shreveport Mayor Keith Hightower, Caddo Parish Sheriff Steve Prator, state Senator Lydia Jackson, and state Representative Mike Powell may also run.

Louisiana's 6th congressional district: Incumbent Richard Baker has announced that he will resign to become Director of the Managed Funds Association^[32]. The district, centered on the state Capitol of Baton Rouge, leans Republican, but refugees from Hurricane Katrina who fled New Orleans have increased Democratic strength in the area. Democrats already have a credible candidate in state Representative Don Cazayoux, who announced on January 8 in anticipation of Baker's resignation. Republicans thinking of running include former state Representative Woody Jenkins, who was nearly elected to the U.S. Senate in 1996, state Representative Hunter Greene, and Paul Sawyer, a former Baker Chief of Staff who currently works for the state Department of Economic Development.^[33]

Maine

Maine's 1st congressional district: Incumbent Tom Allen is running for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Susan Collins in 2008. Democrats would be favored to hold this seat but would not be assured of victory; John Kerry won 55% here in 2004. Democrats who have already announced include: State Senator Ethan Strimling,former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree, who ran against Collins in 2002, and Iraq War veteran Adam Cote^[34]. Possible Democratic candidates include: former State Senator Michael Brennen, York County and District Attorney Mark Lawrence. On the Republican side, small businessman Dean Scontras and Northeast Small Business Administration director Charlie Summers have both formed exploratory committees. Other possible Republican entrants include: former State Representative Darlene Curley, who ran in 2006, Augusta Mayor Roger J. Katz and State Senator Jonathan Courtney. Possible Maine Green to enter the race is former Maine Rep., John Eder.

Maryland

Maryland's 1st congressional district: Wayne Gilchrest (R) faces a strong primary challenge this year. Gilchrest is a liberal to moderate Republican and voted for the bill to set a timetable on the Iraq War. Only 2 Republicans voted for the bill, which passed 218-to-212, and also voted on April 25, 2007 for another Democratic Iraq War bill which passed 218-208. State Senator Andrew P. Harris is challenging him in the GOP primary and has been endorsed by the Club for Growth, ^[35] former Governor Bob Ehrlich ^[36] seven of eight state senators who represent parts of the district, and House Minority leader Anthony J. O'Donnell. ^[37]. State Senator E.J. Pipkin will also challenge Gilchrest in the primary. Among Democrats, Queen Anne's County State Attorney Frank Kratovil has announced he will run, he has been endorsed by Governor Martin O'Malley, and Maryland Comptroller Peter Franchot. George W. Bush won with 62% here in 2004.

Maryland's 4th congressional district: Coming off a close primary against political upstart Donna Edwards in 2006, Al Wynn (D) may again face a competitive primary in 2008, although there will be little competition in the general election as the district is overwhelmingly Democratic. Edwards recently announced her intention to run again in 2008.

Maryland's 6th congressional district: Incumbent Roscoe Bartlett (R) will run again in 2008, when he will be 82. His district is one of the more Republican seats in heavily Democratic Maryland, and includes several western cities such as Frederick and Hagerstown. Bartlett received 58% in 2006, nine points smaller than his 2004 showing, against little-known opponent Andrew Duck. Democrats include Andrew Duck, Veteran and political activist Robin Deibert, and Former Frederick Mayor Jennifer Dougherty. Former Cumberland Mayor Frank K. Nethken, art teacher Tim Croft, and banker Joseph Krysztoforsk are challenging Bartlett in the primary. Independent Gary Hoover is also running^[38].

Massachusetts

Massachusetts's 5th congressional district— Martin T. Meehan (D) resigned on July 1, 2007, leaving vacant the seat that he had held since January 1993. A special election was held on October 16, 2007. Niki Tsongas (D), widow of former Congressman and Senator Paul Tsongas, faced Republican Jim Ogonowski, brother of 9/11 Pilot John Ogonowski, Kurt Hayes (U, Independent), Patrick Murphy (U, Independent), and Kevin Thompson (Constitution Party). Tsongas won by 51% to Ogonowski with 45%.^[39] Possible 2008 opponents for Tsongas include Jim Ogonowski (R) (Ogonowski has indicated he is going to run for the Senate seat currently held by John Kerry), Kurt Hayes who has been mentioned as running a Republican campaign, and Eileen Donoghue (D) who has been mentioned as running an independent campaign.

Michigan

Michigan's 1st congressional district- Bart Stupak (D) has won elections in this northern Michigan district since 1992 and has a record that is popular here. But in 2008, he may face a tough race. State Representative Tom Casperson has announced that he is running for the seat and has a reputation as a good campaigner, in 2002 when he ran for his current post, he defeated Menominee Mayor Laurie Stupak, who is none other than Bart Stupak's wife. Bush won 53% here in 2004

Michigan's 7th congressional district— Tim Walberg (R) won this Republican-leaning district (which went to Bush with 54% to 45% in 2004) with 51% of the vote in 2006 after defeating freshman incumbent Joe Schwarz with financial backing from the conservative Club for Growth. He could face a tough race in 2008, especially if Schwarz challenges him as a Democrat. 2006 nominee Sharon Reiner has announced she will run again. State Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer will also run. Fmr. State Senator Jim Berryman is also running.

Michigan's 9th congressional district— In January 2006, Joe Knollenberg (R) announced his intent to seek re-election in 2008. Knollenberg spent $2.7 million to keep his seat in the House.^[40] Although his past Democratic opponents have not received support from the national party, the seat has now been identified as a "target" for the Democrats in 2008,^[41] as the DCCC is targeting districts where Republicans garnered less than 55% of the vote.^[42] Knollenberg, who will be 75 in 2008, won only 52% of the vote in 2006 in this eastern Oakland County district that gave George W. Bush only 50% of the vote in 2004 and is far from the Republican stronghold it once was. The district was once the most Republican in Metro Detroit, having sent Knollenberg's predecessor, Republican Bill Broomfield, to Congress for 36 years. The only Democrat to officially announce a candidacy is state Lottery Commissioner Gary Peters, the 2002 Democratic nominee for state Attorney General and former State Senator.^[43] Attorney Rhonda Ross is also running as a Democrat. Other possible candidates include State Senator Gilda Jacobs, and radio talk show hostess Nancy Skinner, who was Knollenberg's 2006 opponent.

Minnesota

Minnesota's 1st congressional district: Bush barely won this southern Minnesota district with 51% to 48% for John Kerry in 2004, which DFLer Tim Walz won in 2006. Walz could face a tough race, as he unseated 12-year incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht by 53% to 47%. Another potential Republican candidate is Lieutenant Governor Carol Molnau. Former state Senate Minority Leader Dick Day formed an exploratory committee in February 2007 and state Representative Randy Demmer has also announced.

Minnesota's 3rd congressional district: Jim Ramstad (R) is retiring and will not seek a tenth term;^[44] this is likely to be a very tough race as George W. Bush barely won with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004. Some Democrats think that Ramstad had managed to keep his seat for so long (since 1991) because he had never faced a strong opponent and because of his very moderate social positions.^[44] Both parties appear to have rallied around consensus candidates. Democratic state Senator Terri Bonoff has announced her candidacy^[45] as has Iraq Marine Corp veteran Ashwin Madia^[46] and Edina Mayor (and former Republican) Jim Hovland^[47]. Republican state Representative Erik Paulsen has formed an exploratory committee^[48]. This will be a top priority for both Democrats and Republicans.

Minnesota's 6th congressional district: Michelle Bachman (R) was one of the GOP's success stories in 2006, defeating Patty Wetterling (DFL) by a larger-than-expected margin. But she recently got bad press when she claimed that Iran had a secret plan to partition Iraq, but was unable to produce evidence. This has won her the attention of the Democrats, who have now targeted her for defeat. One Democrat thinking of running is former state Transportation Commissioner Elwyn Tinklenberg^[49], a moderate who ran in 2006 but lost the nomination to the more liberal Wetterling. Bush won here by 56% to 44% in 2004. Democrats are trying to recruit State Senator Tarryl Clark or Stearns County Attorney Janelle Kendall to run.

Mississippi

Mississippi's 1st congressional district - This district became vacant when Republican Roger Wicker was appointed to the U.S. Senate to succeed the resigning Trent Lott. A special election will be held to succeed Wicker. On the Republican side, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis has filed papers to run and former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough, the Chairman of the Tennessee Valley Authority, has announced his candidacy [57]. On the Democratic side, state Representatives Jamie Franks and Steve Holland are potential candidates [58]. John M. Wages, Jr. is running as a Green Party Candidate [59]

Mississippi's 3rd congressional district - Incumbent Chip Pickering is retiring. The district includes the cities of Meridian, Starkville, Pearl, and Natchez, as well as a portion of Jackson. Bush won the district with 65% of the vote in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+14). On the Republican side, Mississippi state Director for USDA Rural Development John Rounsaville, a former Pickering aide, has announced his resignation and plans to run [60]. Other possible Republican candidates include Deputy Director of the Mississippi Development Authority Whit Hughes,Businessman David Landrum, former Press Secretary to the office of Governor Heath Hall, state Senator Charlie Ross, state Senator Dean Kirby, former Public Service Commissioner Mike Callahan, and teacher and school administrator from the southwest Mississippi area Jason R. Case. For the Democrats, former Gene Taylor (D) aide Shawn Bullard is mentioned. He is a former TV journalist in Biloxi who is now president of the Duetto Group in Arlington. Natchez Mayor Phillip West is also a possible Democratic candidate.

Missouri

Missouri's 6th congressional district— Democrats hope to wage a competitive campaign against Republican U.S. Representative Sam Graves. They have recruited former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes, who refused to run in 2006. Barnes announced her candidacy on May 13, 2007 [61]. Bush won 57% here in 2004.

Missouri's 9th congressional district — Incumbent Kenny Hulshof could face a tough race. The district leans Republican but has been won by Democrats in the past. State Representative Judy Baker is a running as a Democrat. Complicating the race is that Hulshof is said to be thinking of running for Governor [62]. If that happens, possible Republican candidates include state Senator John Griesheimer, Boone County Judge Kevin Crane, state Representative Steve Hobbs, and state Director of the Department of Economic Development Greg Steinhoff. Bush won 58% here in 2004.

Nevada

Nevada's 2nd congressional district— Republican Dean Heller was elected to this seat with 50% of the vote in 2006. He could face a serious challenge in 2008, especially if newly elected state Treasurer Kate Marshall decides to challenge him, as some speculate. He may also face University of Nevada Regent Jill Derby, his 2006 opponent, who has since become Chair of the Nevada Democratic Party. Assemblywoman Debbie Smith is also considered a possible candidate. Bush won 57% here in 2004.

Nevada's 3rd congressional district— Republican Jon Porter won by only 48% to 46% in 2006 against a former aide to U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and 54% in 2004. Porter could face another tough race in this suburban Las Vegas district. George W. Bush barely won this district with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+1). An announced candidates are CPA and Fraud Examiner Andrew Martin, and Clark County prosecutor Robert J. Daskas. Other possible Democratic opponents are Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, son of U.S. Senator and Majority Leader of the Senate Harry Reid and State Senator Maggie Carlton.

New Hampshire

New Hampshire's 1st congressional district— Democrat Carol Shea-Porter squeaked into Congress with 52% of the vote to 48% for incumbent Republican Jeb Bradley in one of the greatest upsets of the 2006 election cycle.In January 2007, Bradley announced his intent to seek a rematch in 2008. George W. Bush narrowly won her district with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004. Shea-Porter has continued her very vocal anti-war stance in office and may be fueling Republican interest in regaining the seat.

New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district— Democrat Paul Hodes upended Republican incumbent Charlie Bass in 2006, taking a 53% to 45% victory in a district John Kerry narrowly won with 52% in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+3). Given that New Hampshire has traditionally leaned Republican – though it has been trending more Democratic recently – the GOP might look to oppose Hodes. One Republican who has announced is radio talk show hostess Jennifer Horn [63]. Other possible candidates include former state Senator Bruce Keough, state Senator Bob Clegg, venture capitalist Stephen Gray, former state Senator Chuck Morse, and former state Representative and 2006 gubernatorial candidate Jim Coburn.

New Jersey

New Jersey's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Republican Frank LoBiondo, who has won with ease since picking up his south Jersey congressional seat in 1994, could potentially be vulnerable should state Senators Jeff Van Drew or Jim Whelan enter the race. President Bush carried this district over John Kerry by a 50–49% margin.

New Jersey's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Republican Jim Saxton has announced that he will retire at the end of his current term [64]. This district is historically Republican, but George W. Bush barely won with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 (Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+3). Also, Al Gore won his district by a significant margin in 2000. Some Democrats think that Saxton had managed to keep his seat for so long (since 1984) because he rarely faced credible opposition. State Senator John Adler has announced he will run as a Democrat and could be a formitable candidate [65]. Republicans suffered a setback when state Senator Diane Allen announced that she woudn't run [66]. Possible Republican candidates include Ocean County Freeholder John P. Kelly (New Jersey) and local Lockheed Martin Vice President Christopher Meyers [67].

New Jersey's 5th congressional district— Civil Rights Attorney Camille Abate of Glen Rock is seeking to unseat the incumbent Republican, Rep. Scott Garrett. Abate, the founder of the Camille Abate Justice for ALL Institute, had also sought the Democratic nomination in 2006 and garnered 34 percent of the vote after her late entry with barely one month to go before the primary. Dennis Shulman, a rabbi and psychologist from Demarest, is also in the race.

New Jersey's 7th congressional district— Republican Mike Ferguson barely won his re-election bid in 2006, edging state Assemblywoman Linda Stender by 50% to 48%. In a major surprise, Ferguson recently announced that he will not run for reelection [68]. George W. Bush narrowly won this district with 53% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004 (Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+1). Assemblywoman Linda Stender will run again as a Democrat. On the Republican side Kate Whitman, daughter of former New Jersey Governor Christine Todd Whitman has announced she will run as a Republican. Scotch Plains Mayor Martin Marks will also run. Republican state Senator (and outgoing Senate Minority Leader) Leonard Lance of Hunterdon County announced that he will run [69].

New Mexico

New Mexico's 1st congressional district— The 2006 race between incumbent Republican Heather Wilson and Democratic state Attorney General Patricia Madrid was a cliffhanger, with Wilson being reelected by 861 votes. John Kerry narrowly won this Albuquerque-based district with 52% in 2004. With the retirement of longtime U.S. Senator Pete Domenici, Wilson is now a candidate for the U.S. Senate [70]. Martin Heinrich (Albuquerque City Councilor) and former state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham are seeking the Democratic nomination.^[50] Madrid would be considered a potential candidate. Other Democrats thinking of running include Bernalillo County District Attorney Kari Brandenburg, state Auditor Hector Balderas, state Representative Al Park, and former Congressional aide Terry Brunner. Among Republicans Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White has announced his candidacy [71], and state representatives Justine Fox-Young and Janice Arnold-Jones, as well as former state representative and 2002 gubernatorial candidate John Sanchez all might run also.

New Mexico's 2nd congressional district- Republican incumbent Steve Pearce has announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate [72]. This district, covering roughly southeastern New Mexico, is usually Republican-voting, but Democrats sometimes win elections here. Democrats already running include Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley, who runs the New Mexico Rural Development Response Council, which works on economic development projects in small, economically struggling communities and retired Presbyterian minister Al Kissling, the Democratic nominee against Pearce in 2006, and state Representative Joseph Cervantes. Bush won here with 58% to 42% for John Kerry in 2004. Among Republicans, restaurateur Ed Tinsley has announced his candidacy [73]. Other possible candidates include state Representative Dan Foley, realtor Earl Greer, former state Representative Phelps Anderson, former state Representative Terry Marquardt, and Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman.

New Mexico's 3rd congressional district-- Democratic incumbent Tom Udall has announced he is running for Pete Domenici's open Senate seat [74], despite earlier ruling it out. The race to fill Udall's House seat could become competitive under certain circumstances, but the Democrats would have the advantage: John Kerry won 54% here. Jon Adams, the Los Alamos raised former NM Assistant Attorney General, is running against businessman and civic organizer Don Wiviott for the Democratic nomination. Other possible Democratic candidates include state Public Regulation Commissionioner Ben Luja, whose father is Speaker of the state House of Representatives, state Commissioner of Indian Affairs Benny Shendo, Santa Fe County Ccommissioner Harry Montoya, and Farmington City Councilman Jason Sandel. On the Republican side, attorney Marco Gonzales, a former aide to popular U.S. Senator Pete Domenici, is running and has no primary opposition.

New York

New York's 19th congressional district— Populist folk singer John Hall (D) won a major upset by some 6,000 votes in 2006, defeating long time incumbent Republican Sue Kelly in this historically Republican distric by 51% to 49%t; Kelly was head of the House Page Board in 1998 and was damaged by the Mark Foley scandal. George W. Bush won this district in the Hudson Valley that is home to West Point with 53% of the vote to 45% of the vote for John Kerry in 2004. Republicans thought they had an excellent chance at unseating Hall with the candidacy of Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board Chairman Andrew Saul, a wealthy businessman who had outraised Hall during the second quarter of 2007. The National Republican Congressional Committee, which has targeted Hall, described Saul as a "top recruit". But Republicans got a severe jolt when Saul announced he was dropping out of the race and state Republicans are hastening to find a replacement candidate. Former Congresswoman Sue Kelly has yet to rule out a rematch. Former Congressman Joseph J. DioGuardi and attorney Emily Pataki, daughter of fomer Governor George Pataki, may also run.

New York's 20th congressional district— Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand defeated Republican incumbent John Sweeney in 2006 by 53% to 47%, the same margin with which George W. Bush won this district, which includes the north Hudson Valley and Saratoga Springs, in 2004. Republicans have identified Gillibrand as a top target for 2008, as they believe that Sweeney's personal issues caused his defeat, not a change in voter behavior in this traditional GOP stronghold. Also, Gillibrand's victory was the 15th Democratic pickup that resulted in the Democrats' takeover of the House, as her party needed 15 seats to take over. Gillibrand is drawing a primary challenge from Democrat Morris Guller. Her vulnerability has drawn numerous potential candidates to challenge her in the general election. Former New York Secretary of State Alexander Treadwell who also served as Chairman of the state GOP, former Mayoral aide Richard Wager, who has also raised a considerable war chest early in the race, and Army speical forces member Michael R. Rocque have announced their candidacies. Gillibrand has raised over half a million dollars so far for her re-election, a total matched by Treadwell, who will have a difficult campaign ahead of him to stand out amongst a crowded field. Matt Funicello of the Green Party has also filed to run [75].

New York's 21st congressional district Incumbent Mike McNulty(D) announced in October of 2007 that he is retiring after 10 terms. This predominiately urban district includes all or parts of Albany, Fulton, Montgomery, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, and Schoharie counties. It contains the cities of Albany, Schenectady, Troy, Amsterdam, Gloversville and Johnstown. John Kerry won 54% of the vote here in 2004. Several Democrats have been mentioned as possible successors to McNulty, including Schenectady Mayor Brian Stratton, whose father, Sam Stratton was McNulty's predecessor in Congress, state Assemblyman Ron Canestrari, Albany Mayor Jerry Jennings, state Senator Neil Breslin, and perhaps Green Island Mayor Ellen McNulty, who is Mike McNulty's sister. A possible Republican candidate is state Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco.

New York's 24th congressional district— Democrat Mike Arcuri won his first term with 54% of the vote in a marginal but Democratic-trending district which includes Utica. The district gave George W. Bush 50% of the vote in 2000 and 52% of the vote in 2004. Former state Senator Ray Meier, Arcuri's 2006 opponent, is thinking of running again [76].

New York's 25th congressional district— Incumbent Jim Walsh (R) won by 51% to 49% in 2006 in a Democratic-leaning district that includes Syracuse. He is retiring at the end of his term. Syracuse Mayor Matthew Driscoll announced that he would serve out his term as Mayor until December of 2009, effectively ending speculation that he would seek Walsh's Congressional seat [77]. In 2004, Walsh was the only unopposed Republican to represent a district that voted for John Kerry. Walsh's 2006 Democratic opponent, Dan Maffei, has announced that he would seek a rematch.^[51] State Senator David Valesky may also run as a Democrat. John Kerry won 53% here in 2004. On January 23, 2008, The Politico reported that Walsh would not seek reelection.^[52] Possible Republican candidates include Monroe County executive Maggie Brooks, Onondaga Count District Attorney William FitzPatrick, former Onondaga County legislator and candidate for Onondaga County Executive Dale Sweetland, Walsh's Chief of Staff Dan Gage, Onondaga County Legislator Kathleen Rapp and former Onondaga County Legislator Jim DiBlasi.

New York's 26th congressional district— Republican Tom Reynolds, the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee and a key player in the Mark Foley scandal, won by 52% to 48% in 2006. His challenger, frequent candidate Jack Davis, was not considered an especially strong opponent. This historically Republican district, nestled in the wealthy suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester, gave George W. Bush 55% of the vote; however Reynolds may still be endangered in 2008 if he faces a more serious candidate, but on the other hand, he will not face issues related to the handling of the Mark Foley page scandal, which nearly cost him his seat in 2006. A potential Democrat who is held to be stronger than Davis is Iraq War Veteran Jonathan Powers. In June 2007 Powers declared his candidacy.In November 2007 Buffalo attorney Alice Kryzan announced she will run. In addition, there is growing speculation that Reynolds will not seek reelection, in which case state Senator George Maziarz may be the Republican nominee [78].

New York's 29th congressional district— Republican Randy Kuhl had a close race in 2006, surviving a challenge from Democrat Eric Massa by a 52% to 48% margin. His Elmira and suburban Rochester district gave Bush 56% in 2004. Massa has said he will run again in 2008. Despite his district being the most Republican in New York, Kuhl is considered a weak incumbent who has had multiple difficult reelections in the past. In addition, Kuhl is undecided on whether he will seek reelection in 2008 [79].

North Carolina

North Carolina's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Democrat Bob Etheridge could face a tough race in this Republican-leaning district that Bush carried by a 10-point margin in 2004 (55% for Bush to 45% for John Kerry). Etheridge hasn't had a close race since his first, in 1996.^[53]

North Carolina's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Walter Jones, Jr., a conservative former Democrat, represents a solidly Republican-voting coastal district. However, his increasingly outspoken opposition to the Bush Administration's policy regarding the Iraq War has angered some pro-war conservatives. As a result, he faces a credible primary challenge. Onslow County Commissioner Joseph R. McLaughlin, a former infantry officer, is running ^[54]. McLaughlin has denounced the incumbent's anti-war stance, believing it isn't helpful to the war effort. The victor of the primary would seem to be a shoo-in for the general election (George W. Bush won here by a wide margin in both 2000 and 2004), but Democrat and U.S. Marine Corps veteran Marshall Adame is also running.^[55]

North Carolina's 5th congressional district - Incumbent Virginia Foxx (R) is the favorite in this Republican-leaning district, but is facing potential challenges from Democrats Roy Carter, a teacher and football coach,^[56] ^[57] and Seth Chapman, longtime Clerk of Court in Alexander County.^[58]

North Carolina's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Howard Coble (R) may retire in 2008, when he will be 77. The district consists mostly of rural areas surrounded by the Greensboro, Raleigh and Charlotte metropolitan areas. If Coble does retire, a possible Republican choice would be state Representative Laura I. Wiley. Coble's district is solidly Republican (George W. Bush won here by a wide margin in both 2000 and 2004).

North Carolina's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Democrat Mike McIntyre could face a tough race in this Republican-leaning district that Bush carried by a 14-point margin in 2004 (57% for Bush to 43% for John Kerry). McIntyre has been re-elected overwhelmingly in each election since 1998.^[59]

North Carolina's 8th congressional district— Republican Robin Hayes barely hung on in his 2006 re-election bid against Democrat Larry Kissell by a 329-vote margin. This seat likely will be competitive again in 2008 because of Hayes' vote for CAFTA, which he first opposed but voted for because of pressure from House Republican leaders. Kissell has already declared his candidacy for the 2008 race, and his most well-known potential opponent, state Rep. Rick Glazier, opted not to run.^[60] Bush carried this district by a 10-point margin in 2004 (55% for Bush to 45% for John Kerry).

North Carolina's 10th congressional district — Incumbent Republican Patrick McHenry is the favorite to win the general election in this heavily Republican district, provided he wins his primary over retired Air Force Lt. Col. Lance Sigmon and perhaps other candidates. Democrat Daniel Johnson raised $123,000 during the fourth quarter of 2007.^[61] Democrat Steve Ivester announced in 2007 that he would run. ^[62] ^[63] A wild card is an attempted independent run by Constitution Party-supported Bryan Greene of Lenoir, NC. ^[64] It is unclear what effect, if any, the indictment of a former McHenry campaign aide for election fraud will have. ^[65] In 2006, McHenry defeated Democrat Richard Carsner by a smaller margin than the margin in his 2004 win. ^[66]

North Carolina's 11th congressional district— Democrat Heath Shuler won 54% to 46% against scandal-plagued incumbent Charles Taylor in 2006, in a district that gave 57% of its vote to George W. Bush and 43% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004. The district includes the western areas of North Carolina, including Asheville. This race could be competitive, but Shuler's social conservatism and economic populism should help his chances at reelection, even in a GOP-leaning district. Taylor has decided against a rematch.^[67] Potential Republican candidates include Buncombe County Commissioner Nathan Ramsey and attorney John Armor.^[68] Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower and Henderson County Republican Party chairman Spence Campbell are the only declared Republican candidates.^[69] ^[70]

North Dakota

North Dakota's at-large congressional district— Democrat Earl Pomeroy, North Dakota's sole congressman, won by 65% to 34% over Republican Matthew Mechtel in 2006, compared to 59% to 40% in 2004. George W. Bush won in this district 63% to 36% for John Kerry in 2004. Possible Republican contenders include state attorney general Wayne Stenehjem, 2004 Republican nominee Duane Sand, and state Representative Kim Koppelman.

Ohio

Ohio's 1st congressional district— Republican Steve Chabot won by 52% to 48% in 2006, compared to 60% to 40% in 2004. His district barely went to George W. Bush with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004 and includes the western portion of the Cincinnati area. State House Democratic Whip Steve Driehaus is running for the Democratic nomination. Driehaus' FEC report at the end of the second quarter of 2007 showed contributions from political committees linked to a large number of national leaders of the Democratic Party.^{[citation needed]}

Ohio's 2nd congressional district— Republican Jean Schmidt barely held on by a 51% to 49% margin against Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin. Her district is a heavily Republican one, covering the eastern portions of Greater Cincinnati, but she has never had an easy primary or general election. In 2008, she will face a primary challenge from state Representative Tom Brinkman [80]. Former Hamilton County Commissioner Phil Heimlich ^[71], who had been endorsed by the conservative Club for Growth, dropped out of the race [81]. Wulsin has declared her intention to run again. Bush won 64% here in 2004.

Ohio's 3rd congressional district— Republican Mike Turner, a former mayor of Dayton, won his last race with 58% of the vote. However, some Democrats think that he has never faced strong competition. Turner's seat was previously held by Democrat Tony P. Hall for 24 years. One potential Democratic candidate would be Rhine McLin, the current mayor of Dayton. This Dayton-based district narrowly went for Bush with 54% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004.

Ohio's 7th congressional district— Republican David Hobson will retire at the age of 71^[72]. Hobson's district stretches from Springfield in the Dayton area eastward to several outer southern areas of Columbus. Bush won 57% here. Republican state Senator Steve Austria plans to run and has Hobson's support^[73]. 2006 Democratic challenger William Conner is running again in 2008.

Ohio's 10th congressional district— Democrat Dennis Kucinich ran for President, but decided to withdraw after poor showings in early primaries and caucuses and is seeking reelection to the House [82]. Kucinich will be 62 in 2008. In 2004, John Kerry won 60% of the vote in this district, which covers much of Cleveland . Kucinich is facing a primary challenge from Cleveland City Councilman Joe Cimperman, North Olmsted Mayor Tom O'Grady, teacher and antiwar activist Rosemary Palmer, and community activist Barbara Ferris.

Ohio's 12th congressional district— Republican Pat Tiberi faced an expensive race in 2006 against one of this district’s former representatives, Democrat Bob Shamansky, who briefly served in the early 1980s, but survived with 58% of the vote. George W. Bush barely won this district with 51% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004.

Ohio's 14th congressional district— Republican Steve LaTourette, whose district is centered around the eastern suburbs of Cleveland, won 58% of the vote in 2006 against a weak opponent.^{[citation needed]} He represents a swing district where no party has a clear advantage over the other. Bush won here with 52% to 47% for John Kerry. Appeals Court Judge William O'Neill is running for the Democratic nomination.

Ohio's 15th congressional district— Republican Deborah Pryce survived the toughest race of her career against Democratic Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy by 1,062 votes. Pryce is not running for reelection in 2008. Kilroy has announced that she will run again, while Republicans are were left searching for a credible candidate. They found one in state Seator Steve Stivers. George W. Bush barely won here in 2004 with 50.3% to 49.7% for John Kerry.

Ohio's 16th congressional district— Republican Congressman Ralph Regula will retire after 36 years in Congress [83]. Regula, whose district includes the Canton area, garnered only 58% in the 2006 Republican primary against conservative Ashland County Commissioner Matt Miller. Miller has announced that he will run again^[74]. But Miller may face primary competition from state Senator Kirk Schuring and perhaps former Stark County Commissioner Richard Regula. Democratic state Senator John Boccieri had already announced that he will run regardless of Regula's decision^[75]. This district went for Bush with 53% to 46% for Kerry in 2004.

Ohio's 18th congressional district— Democrat Zack Space may be vulnerable in 2008 as his district, located in southeastern Ohio, went to George W. Bush with 57% to 43% for John Kerry in 2004, although Space won his first term in 2006 with 62% of the vote. Republicans were forced to select a new candidate — state Senator Joy Padgett — after Rep. Bob Ney dropped out of the race following his conviction in the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal. It turned out that Padgett had financial controversies of her own, and local voters were in no mood to tolerate more scandal. Republican candidates running include former Guernsey County Magistrate Jeanette Moll, former state Agriculture Director Fred Dailey, and attorney Paul Phillips^[76].

Oregon

Oregon's 5th congressional district— Democrat Darlene Hooley may face a competitive race this marginal Willamette Valley district George W. Bush barely won with 50% to 49% for John Kerry in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+1), while Hooley received 53% of the vote. She was reelected in 2006 with 54% to her closest opponent's 43%. There has been speculation in the past that Hooley would retire, though this seems unlikely now that Democrats are in the majority in the House. Her 2006 Republican opponent, businessman Mike Erickson, is seriously thinking of running again^[77].

Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania's 3rd congressional district— Republican Phil English could have a test in 2008, as he represents an Erie-based district that gave George W. Bush 53% of the vote and 47% of its vote to John Kerry in 2004. Also, in 2006, English received 54% of the vote against a political newcomer with no political experience. The DCCC has recruited Erie County Councilman Kyle Foust to run against English.

Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district— Democrat Jason Altmire defeated Republican incumbent Melissa Hart in a 52% to 48% upset, as Hart had won 63% of the vote in 2004, when George W. Bush carried this suburban Pittsburgh district with 53% to 45% for John Kerry. In 2006, Pennsylvania was perhaps the most disastrous state for incumbent GOP House members, who lost four seats here. Melissa Hart has announced she will run again, and Former Allegheny County Commissioner Ron Francis has also declared his candidacy.

Pennsylvania's 5th congressional district - Incumbent John E. Peterson is retiring. Pennsylvania's fifth district is currently the largest of all of Pennsylvania's congressional districts. It contains a large portion of north-central Pennsylvania. Bush won 61% of the vote here in 2004. Iraq war veteran Bill Cahir and Lock Raven Mayor Richard Vilello will run for the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, former Centre County Commissioner Chris Exarchos, College Township Councilman Daniel Klees, wealthy holel developer Matt Shaner, Clarion Borough Mayor John R. Stroup, and Elk County Coroner Louis Radkowski will run. Donald Wilson of the Green Party is also running [84].

Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district— Republican Jim Gerlach survived threats from wealthy attorney Lois Murphy in 2004 and 2006 with 51% each year and could face another for his suburban Philadelphia district in 2008, which went to John Kerry with 51% in 2004. Potential candidates would be state Senator Andrew Dinniman , state Representative Mike Gerber and actress Melissa Fitzgerald, who portrayed the character of Carol Fitzpatrick on the political drama The West Wing.

Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district Freshman Democrat Joe Sestak won this district in 2006 by winning 56% against Republican incumbent Curt Weldon, whose reelecion bid was destroyed by ethics charges and an FBI investigation. This year, his Republican opponent may be former Assistant U.S. Attorney Craig Williams, a veteran of the Persian Gulf War.

Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district— This Bucks County district voted for John Kerry with 51% in 2004 and was narrowly won by Democrat Pat Murphy in 2006, when Murphy unseated one-term Republican Mike Fitzpatrick by 1,521 votes. Pharmaceutical executive Thomas Manion, a Murphy critic and the father of a slain soldier in Iraq, has announced his candidacy. Other possible candidates are state Representative Bernie O'Neill and state Representative Scott Petri.

Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district— Chris Carney (D) may face a difficult reelection bid in this heavily Republican district he won after widely-publicized allegations of incumbent Republican Don Sherwood’s extramarital affair with and alleged abuse of Cynthia Ore, who later settled for an undisclosed amount. Carney defeated Sherwood 53% to 47%. Possible Republican opponents include US Attorney Tom Marino, state Senator Lisa Baker, state Representative Karen Boback, state Representative Brett Feese, Kingston Mayor Jim Haggerty, and former U.S. Justice Department official Joe Peters, who ran for state Auditor in 2006. Bush won here 60% to 40% for John Kerry.

Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district— Democrat Allyson Schwartz could be a target for Republicans in th 2008 race. She was elected by a larger-than-expected margin in 2004 and did not face a serious challenge in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district, which covers northeast Philadelphia and southern Montgomery County. Republicans who will run include personal injury attorney Marina Kats, businessman Frank Szabo, and perhaps management consultant Lee Falgoust [85].

Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district— Republican Charlie Dent could face a tough race in 2008. He won 53% of the vote against a political newcomer with no political experience in a district that narrowly went to John Kerry with 50% in 2004. His district covers the Lehigh Valley region and is politically marginal. Allentown Democratic Party chairwoman Sam Bennett has declared her candidacy. Other possible Democratic opponents include Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham, and state Democratic Party Chairman T.J. Rooney. State Rep. Jennifer Mann is also rumored to be considering a run.

Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district— Republican Tim Murphy was reelected in 2006 with 58% of the vote against a little-known Democrat in this suburban Pittsburgh district that George W. Bush won here with 54% to 46% for John Kerry in 2004, an indication that Murphy could be vulnerable against a stronger opponent. Democrats are trying to entice Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato to run, although he has yet to show any interest. One Democrat who will run is consultant Beth Hafer, whose mother Barbara Hafer is a longtime state official^[78].

Tennessee

Tennessee's 9th congressional district — Incumbent Steve Cohen who is white won a close primary in this heavily African American district which includes most of Memphis in 2006 when Harold Ford retired to run for senate. The seat is safely Democratic but he faces a potenially tough primary challenge from Attorney Nikki Tinker who is African American. She narrowly lost to him in the primary in 2006.

Texas

Texas's 7th congressional district— Democrat Michael Skelly will attempt to unseat Republican John Culberson in a district that voted 59% for the incumbent in 2006. The district takes in large portions of western Houston and surrounding Harris County.

Texas's 14th congressional district— Incumbent Republican Ron Paul is running for president. His district covers much of the central portion of the Texas Gulf Coast, including the communities of Galveston, Bay City, and Victoria. As a whole, it votes Republican, although Democrats sometimes win elections there. Already, Friendswood City Councilman Chris Peden has announced he would run even if Paul sought reelection. Other Republicans thinking of running include Republican party activist Bobby Eberle.

Texas's 17th congressional district— Republicans will look to unseat Chet Edwards (D) in this heavily Republican district that covers Waco and the Bryan-College Station area. His district gave George W. Bush 70% of the vote in 2004 and includes Crawford, the home of Bush’s ranch. Edwards was the sole survivor among the Texas Democrats targeted by the mid-decade redistricting effective in 2004, reelected that year with just 51%, but easily defeated Iraq War veteran Van Taylor (who was highly touted as a top-flight candidate by the GOP) by 40% to 58% respectively, in 2006.

Texas's 22nd congressional district— This seat was vacated by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, who resigned amid reports over his campaign finance activities. Democrat Nick Lampson won the general election, facing only a Libertarian and write-in opposition from Republicans. Republican Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, a dermatologist and former Houston City Councilwoman, won the special election held on the same day and in which Lampson did not run, and she served as a member of congress for almost two months before Lampson was sworn in. Lampson is running for re-election but is expected to face a difficult race in 2008, as he represents a heavily Republican constituency that voted for George W. Bush over John Kerry by a 2 to 1 (66%-33%) margin, more than any other district that fell to the Democrats in 2006. In an added development, Lampson has had serious health problems, including recent quadruple heart bypass surgery, raising questions as to whether he will run again. Sekula-Gibbs is running again for the seat, but had caused a stir with voters after leveling charges of unprofessional behavior against some former DeLay aides and called for an ethics investigation. Those aides later walked out and claimed Sekula-Gibbs herself was unprofessional. The district takes in several wealthy and conservative suburbs south of Houston, including Sugar Land, Pasadena, Pearland, and the Clear Lake area of Houston. This district also includes the NASA Johnson Space Center and Ellington Field. Along with Sekula-Gibbs, several other Republicans are running for the seat including former Sugar Land mayor Dean Hrbacek, former Pasadena mayor John Manlove, former John Cornyn Chief of Staff Pete Olson, Family District Judge Jim Squier, State Representative Bob Talton, and NASA contractor Ryan Rowley.

Texas's 23rd congressional district— Former Democratic Representative Ciro Rodriguez won a 54% to 46% victory in a runoff against Republican incumbent Henry Bonilla on December 12, 2006. Rodriguez was aided by low turnout, especially in the conservative areas of the district. His seat is a natural target for Republicans in 2008. The district, which is a majority Hispanic one to the south and west of downtown San Antonio, stretching across West Texas into Del Rio and other towns along the Mexican border and Big Bend National Park, reaching all the way to just east of El Paso, is politically marginal. Wealthy attorney Francisco "Quico" Canseco has announced that he would run and has begun running television ads in the 23rd district.[86], and it's possible that Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson will run, as well.

Virginia

Virginia's 2nd congressional district— Republican Thelma Drake survived a bid from Democrat Phil Kellam by only 51% to 49% in 2006. In 2004, Drake received 55% of the vote in this Virginia Beach-based district, which was won by George W. Bush with 57% to 42% for John Kerry in 2004. Drake may have been hurt by the downfall of Republican U.S. Senator George Allen, who narrowly lost to Democrat Jim Webb, an ex-Republican and former Navy Secretary under Ronald Reagan.

Virginia's 9th congressional district— George W. Bush won 58% of this district to 40% for John Kerry in 2004, which is held by Democrat Rick Boucher. If Boucher was to retire, this district will likely experience a competitive race. Boucher will be 62 in 2008.

Virginia's 10th congressional district— George W. Bush won 55% of this district to 45% for John Kerry in 2004, which is held by Republican Frank Wolf, who faced a challenge from Democrat Judy Feder in 2006. Feder will run again in 2008.Another possible Democratic candidate is ret. Air Force Colonel & Desert Storm veteran Michael Turner. Wolf will be facing a primary challenge from Vern McKinley, who is to the right of Wolf on economic issues. Democrats have been making gains in Northern Virginia recently, which could make re-election tough for Wolf in 2008. Wolf's district covers Loudoun, Prince William and part of Fairfax counties, as well as Manassas.

Virginia's 11th congressional district— Incumbent Tom Davis (R) toppled one-term Democrat Leslie Byrne in 1994 and has rarely faced serious opposition since. However, his district, located in the wealthy Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC, has become increasingly Democratic over the years and could become more competitive. George W. Bush barely won this district with 50% to 49% for John Kerry, which includes part of Fairfax and Prince William counties, in 2004. Iraq War Veteran Doug Denneny, is the only declared Democratic candidate for now. [87] [88]. Former congresswoman Leslie Byrne, whom Davis unseated in 1994, has announced her candidacy, even if Davis seeks reelection [89]. Also possible Democratic candidates are Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors (which Davis was part of before becoming a Congressman). Among Republican, business magnate and former CPA Keith Fimian [90] has expressed interest in running. Other Republicans mentioned are U.S. Maritime Administrator Sean Connaughton, state Senator Jay O'Brien, Prince William County Supervisor Corey Stewart, and state Delatate Tim Hugo.

Washington

Washington's 8th congressional district— Dave Reichert (R) won a close 51% to 49% re-election bid against Democratic former Microsoft product manager Darcy Burner in 2006. Given the closeness of the race, Darcy Burner has declared her intention to run against Reichert in 2008. Al Gore and John Kerry narrowly won this suburban Seattle district with 52% in 2000 and 2004, respectively. Another potential candidate was state Senator Rodney Tom, who had announced his candidacy but later dropped out of the race and endorsed Darcy Burner. [91].

West Virginia

West Virginia's 2nd congressional district— In 2006, Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito was reelected with 57%, a solid margin, but not a sign of political security. Democratic state Senator John Unger had officially entered the race but dropped out of the race.^[79] The DCCC has called this race " a top target." Bush won 57% here in 2004.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin's 8th congressional district— Democrat Steve Kagen won by a 51% to 49% margin his first term in this Republican-leaning district that narrowly went to George W. Bush with 55% to 45% for John Kerry in 2004. Kagen will likely face a serious threat from Republicans, who had held this seat since 1999. He recently garnered bad press when he bragged about speaking rudely to the President and First Lady at a White House function and then retracted this claim. He was the subject of controversy when the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) investigated his clinic for selling allergy vaccines without a valid license, although his clinic stopped the practice. Kagen's predecessor, Mark Green, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2006, has been nominated by Bush to be Ambassador to Tanzania, ruling out his running. Possible Republican candidates include former state Assembly Speaker John Gard, his 2006 opponent; state Assemblyman Steve Wieckert; State Representative Frank Lasee of Bellevue; former Green Bay Mayor Paul Jadin, one of two former Wisconsin state Treasurers, Jack Voight of Appleton or Cathy Zeuske of Peshtigo (who is Gard's wife); and Terri McCormick, a former Assemblywoman who was defeated by Gard in the 2006 Republican primary.

Wyoming

Wyoming's at-large congressional district— Six-term Republican Barbara Cubin has decided to retire from the House [92], after she edged her Democratic opponent, Teton County School Board Chairman Gary Trauner, by a margin of 1,012 votes in 2006. She sought reelection in a district – coterminous with the state of Wyoming – that gave George W. Bush an overwhelming margin of 69% in 2004 but whose governor, Democrat Dave Freudenthal, was reelected with 70% of the vote in 2006. Cubin has been known as a lightning rod for controversy over a number of incidents that ranged from receiving money from ARMPAC, to distributing penis-shaped cookies to male colleagues while in the Wyoming legislature, to even an incident after a televised debate in which she remarked that if the Libertarian candidate, Thomas Rankin, who has multiple sclerosis and must use a wheelchair, "weren’t sitting in that chair," she would have slapped him in the face. So few were surprised when Cubin announced that she would retire from Congress [93].Gary Trauner has already said that he will run again in 2008. WY state House Majority Leader and son of former U.S. Senator Alan Simpson, Colin Simpson has announced he will run; however, on December 4, to the shock and surprise of state GOP officials, Simpson announced that he was withdrawing from the race [94]. Cheyenne substitute teacher Swede Nelson was the first to announce his candidacy for the seat on Sept. 8th, 2007. Other Republicans running include conservative former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, state Representative Dan Zwonitzer, and retired Naval Captain and '06 candidate Bill Winney, who garnered 40% of the vote against Cubin in the primary.

References

^ Hastert submits official resignation letter Associated Press. November 26, 2007.
^ Special election confuses candidates Brendan O'Shaughnessy January 6, 2008. The Indianapolis Star.
^ cqpolitics.com
^ cnn.com. December 31, 2007.
^ Elliott, Scott (November 8, 2006). "The future of the Congress". ElectionProjection.com. Retrieved 2007-02-15.
^ Contract - Democratic or GOP control of the House of Representatives, 2008, InTrade.com, accessed November 15, 2007
^ Novak, Robert (May 2, 2007). "Evans-Novak Political Report". http://www.humanevents.com/. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)
^ Novak, Robert (May 2, 2007). "Evans-Novak Political Report". http://www.humanevents.com/. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)
^ Babington, Charles (2007-05-30). "House GOP fear fallout from ethics cases". Yahoo News. Associated Press. Retrieved 2007-05-30.
^ Arizona's Rep. Rick Renzi to retire Associated Press August 23, 2007. Retrieved August 24, 2007
^ Mike Sunnucks, "Replacements waiting in wings as Renzi ponders resignation", Phoenix Business Journal, April 23, 2007
^ David Whitney, "Doolittle slipping as big-money draw: His campaign is in debt and raising less as rival Brown in gaining steam", Sacramento Bee, July 16, 2007
^ http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2007/04/18/state/n143804D07.DTL "FBI searched home of congressman linked to Jack Abramoff case"], Associated Press, April 18, 2007
^ http://www.sptimes.com/2007/11/18/news_pf/Hernando/Early_rival_launches_.shtml
^ Garcia, Jason (June 19, 2007). "Keller Draws More Competition". Orlando Sentinel Central Florida Political Pulse Blog. Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved Jun 19, 2007.
^ Jeremy Wallace, "Jennings to run for Congress again", Herald-Tribune, July 20, 2007
^ Idaho Press-Tribune staff (2007-07-05). "Nampa veteran runs for Congress". Idaho Press-Tribune. Retrieved 2007-07-23.
^ Gamache, Shawna (2007-04-05). "LaRocco to run for Senate; Craig mum on future". The Idaho Statesman. Retrieved 2007-04-11. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)
^ Another Scheurer to run against Bean Lake County News-Sun June 20, 2007. September 19, 2007
^ Moderate Party member running for Congress
^ "Green Party member will challenge Kirk". Lake County News-Sun. Copley Newspapers. 2007-05-17. Retrieved 2007-05-29. {{cite news}}: Text "NEWS-SUN STAFF REPORT" ignored (help)
^ Weller won't seek eighth term NWI Times September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 21, 2007
^ Rep. Dennis Hastert Bids Colleagues Farewell, Won't Finish Term FOX News. November 15, 2007. Retrieved November 16, 2007
^ Conservative Enters Race For Hastert's Seat CBS News, September 15, 2007 Retrieved September 17, 2007
^ Wurf, Hiram (2007-05-21). "John Laesch Running In Congressional 14th-Announcing At Fire Dog Lake Saturday". Wurfwhile. Hiram Wurf. Retrieved 2007-05-22.
^ Krol, Eric (2007-05-31). "Physicist in running to replace Hastert". Daily Herald. Sun-Times. Retrieved 2007-06-03.
^ Wurf, Hiram (2007-05-09). "Democrat Joe Serra Planning to Run in 14th Congressional". WurfWhile. Hiram Wurf. Retrieved 2007-06-03.
^ Sweeny, Chuck (2007-06-03). "Manzullo rival fears the demise of manufacturing". Rockford Register Star. GateHouse Media Inc. Retrieved 2007-06-03.
^ LaHood retiring after 7 terms in Congress Associated Press July 26, 2007.
^ Schock plans to seek congressional seat Peoria Journal Star. August 5, 2005.
^ ^a ^b ^c "Iowa House Race". UpFront Politics. Retrieved 2008-01-27.
^ cqpolitics.com
^ Richard Baker to resign
^ adamcote.com
^ Club for Growth Endorses Andy Harris Andy Harris For Congress Press Release. August 13, 2007. Retrieved August 17, 2007
^ Ehrlich supports Harris for seat ASSOCIATED PRESS October 19, 2007. Retrieved October 19, 2007
^ Eleven Republican Incumbents Have to Watch Their Backs in House Primaries By CQ Staff. October 2, 2007. Retrieved October 19,2007
^ hoover4congress08.com
^ Cooney, Jessica Benton (2007-03-14). "Rep. Meehan's Departure Now Certain, as College Approves New Post". Yahoo! News. CQPolitics.com. Retrieved 2007-04-11.
^ "Knollenberg shifts role after nearly losing seat". Detroit Free Press. December 25, 2006.
^ Rehman, Marc (January 30, 2007). "Michigan GOP Rep. Knollenberg Draws Democrats' Scrutiny for 2008". The New York Times. Retrieved 2007-03-25.
^ Price, Deb (January 31, 2007). "Dems slap bulls-eye on 2 GOP U.S. Reps". The Detroit News. Retrieved 2007-03-25.
^ "POLITICALLY SPEAKING: IT's official: Peters will take on Knollenberg". The Detroit Free Press. August 8, 2007. Retrieved 2007-08-07.
^ ^a ^b Frommer, Fred (2007-09-17). "Ramstad announces his retirement from Congress". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved 2007-09-17.
^ cqpolitics.com
^ madiaforcongress.com
^ jimhovland.com
^ twincities.com
^ twincities.com
^ "Albuquerque lawyer seeks 1st District nomination". KOB-TV. November 5, 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-18.
^ Pierce, Frederic (2007-04-06). "Maffei again plans run for Walsh's seat". The Post-Standard. Retrieved 2007-04-12.
^ http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0108/Jim_Walsh_to_retire.html
^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=572
^ http://www.newsargus.com/news/archives/2007/05/11/challenge_coming_for_jones_in_2008/index.shtml
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/profiles/marshall_adame
^ http://www.roycarterforcongress.com/
^ http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2007/10/roy-carter-taking-on-virginia-foxx-in.html
^ http://www.thenation.com/doc/20070813/moser
^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=577
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/glazier_no_congressional_run
^ http://www.hickoryrecord.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=HDR/MGArticle/HDR_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1173354338856&path
^ http://www.charlotte.com/local/story/332980.html
^ http://www.hickoryrecord.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=HDR/MGArticle/HDR_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1173353358614
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/mchenry_opponent_seeks_signatures
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/former_mchenry_worker_takes_deal
^ http://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=580
^ http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/819271.html
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/apodaca_no_run_against_shuler
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/mumpower_announces_campaign
^ http://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/campbell_to_run_against_mumpower
^ cleveland.com
^ public.cq.com
^ whiotv.com
^ cantonrep.com
^ indeonline.com
^ vintoncourier.1upmonitor.com
^ statesmanjournal.com
^ post-gazette.com
^ State Sen. Unger running for U.S. Congress The Register Herald May 21, 2007. Retrieved June 2, 2007

[1] Hastert submits official resignation letter Associated Press. November 26, 2007.

[Electiondate-2] Special election confuses candidates Brendan O'Shaughnessy January 6, 2008. The Indianapolis Star.

[3] qpolitics.com

[4] .com. December 31, 2007.

[5] Elliott, Scott (November 8, 2006). "The future of the Congress". ElectionProjection.com. Retrieved 2007-02-15.

[6] Contract - Democratic or GOP control of the House of Representatives, 2008, InTrade.com, accessed November 15, 2007

[7] Novak, Robert (May 2, 2007). "Evans-Novak Political Report". http://www.humanevents.com/. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)

[8] Novak, Robert (May 2, 2007). "Evans-Novak Political Report". http://www.humanevents.com/. Retrieved 2007-05-02. {{cite web}}: External link in |publisher= (help)

[9] Babington, Charles (2007-05-30). "House GOP fear fallout from ethics cases". Yahoo News. Associated Press. Retrieved 2007-05-30.

[10] Arizona's Rep. Rick Renzi to retire Associated Press August 23, 2007. Retrieved August 24, 2007

[11] Mike Sunnucks, "Replacements waiting in wings as Renzi ponders resignation", Phoenix Business Journal, April 23, 2007

[12] David Whitney, "Doolittle slipping as big-money draw: His campaign is in debt and raising less as rival Brown in gaining steam", Sacramento Bee, July 16, 2007

[13] ttp://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2007/04/18/state/n143804D07.DTL "FBI searched home of congressman linked to Jack Abramoff case"], Associated Press, April 18, 2007

[14] ttp://www.sptimes.com/2007/11/18/news_pf/Hernando/Early_rival_launches_.shtml

[15] Garcia, Jason (June 19, 2007). "Keller Draws More Competition". Orlando Sentinel Central Florida Political Pulse Blog. Orlando Sentinel. Retrieved Jun 19, 2007.

[16] Jeremy Wallace, "Jennings to run for Congress again", Herald-Tribune, July 20, 2007

[17] Idaho Press-Tribune staff (2007-07-05). "Nampa veteran runs for Congress". Idaho Press-Tribune. Retrieved 2007-07-23.

[18] Gamache, Shawna (2007-04-05). "LaRocco to run for Senate; Craig mum on future". The Idaho Statesman. Retrieved 2007-04-11. {{cite news}}: Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help)

[19] Another Scheurer to run against Bean Lake County News-Sun June 20, 2007. September 19, 2007

[20] Moderate Party member running for Congress

[21] "Green Party member will challenge Kirk". Lake County News-Sun. Copley Newspapers. 2007-05-17. Retrieved 2007-05-29. {{cite news}}: Text "NEWS-SUN STAFF REPORT" ignored (help)

[22] Weller won't seek eighth term NWI Times September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 21, 2007

[23] Rep. Dennis Hastert Bids Colleagues Farewell, Won't Finish Term FOX News. November 15, 2007. Retrieved November 16, 2007

[24] Conservative Enters Race For Hastert's Seat CBS News, September 15, 2007 Retrieved September 17, 2007

[25] Wurf, Hiram (2007-05-21). "John Laesch Running In Congressional 14th-Announcing At Fire Dog Lake Saturday". Wurfwhile. Hiram Wurf. Retrieved 2007-05-22.

[26] Krol, Eric (2007-05-31). "Physicist in running to replace Hastert". Daily Herald. Sun-Times. Retrieved 2007-06-03.

[27] Wurf, Hiram (2007-05-09). "Democrat Joe Serra Planning to Run in 14th Congressional". WurfWhile. Hiram Wurf. Retrieved 2007-06-03.

[28] Sweeny, Chuck (2007-06-03). "Manzullo rival fears the demise of manufacturing". Rockford Register Star. GateHouse Media Inc. Retrieved 2007-06-03.

[29] LaHood retiring after 7 terms in Congress Associated Press July 26, 2007.

[30] Schock plans to seek congressional seat Peoria Journal Star. August 5, 2005.

[Iowa-31] "Iowa House Race". UpFront Politics. Retrieved 2008-01-27.

[32] qpolitics.com

[33] Richard Baker to resign

[34] te.com

[35] Club for Growth Endorses Andy Harris Andy Harris For Congress Press Release. August 13, 2007. Retrieved August 17, 2007

[36] Ehrlich supports Harris for seat ASSOCIATED PRESS October 19, 2007. Retrieved October 19, 2007

[37] Eleven Republican Incumbents Have to Watch Their Backs in House Primaries By CQ Staff. October 2, 2007. Retrieved October 19,2007

[38] ver4congress08.com

[39] Cooney, Jessica Benton (2007-03-14). "Rep. Meehan's Departure Now Certain, as College Approves New Post". Yahoo! News. CQPolitics.com. Retrieved 2007-04-11.

[40] "Knollenberg shifts role after nearly losing seat". Detroit Free Press. December 25, 2006.

[41] Rehman, Marc (January 30, 2007). "Michigan GOP Rep. Knollenberg Draws Democrats' Scrutiny for 2008". The New York Times. Retrieved 2007-03-25.

[42] Price, Deb (January 31, 2007). "Dems slap bulls-eye on 2 GOP U.S. Reps". The Detroit News. Retrieved 2007-03-25.

[43] "POLITICALLY SPEAKING: IT's official: Peters will take on Knollenberg". The Detroit Free Press. August 8, 2007. Retrieved 2007-08-07.

[Ramstad-44] Frommer, Fred (2007-09-17). "Ramstad announces his retirement from Congress". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved 2007-09-17.

[45] qpolitics.com

[46] rcongress.com

[47] vland.com

[48] twincities.com

[49] twincities.com

[50] "Albuquerque lawyer seeks 1st District nomination". KOB-TV. November 5, 2007. Retrieved 2007-11-18.

[51] Pierce, Frederic (2007-04-06). "Maffei again plans run for Walsh's seat". The Post-Standard. Retrieved 2007-04-12.

[52] ttp://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0108/Jim_Walsh_to_retire.html

[53] ttp://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=572

[54] ttp://www.newsargus.com/news/archives/2007/05/11/challenge_coming_for_jones_in_2008/index.shtml

[55] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/profiles/marshall_adame

[56] ttp://www.roycarterforcongress.com/

[57] ttp://downwithtyranny.blogspot.com/2007/10/roy-carter-taking-on-virginia-foxx-in.html

[58] ttp://www.thenation.com/doc/20070813/moser

[59] ttp://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=577

[60] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/glazier_no_congressional_run

[61] ttp://www.hickoryrecord.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=HDR/MGArticle/HDR_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1173354338856&path

[62] ttp://www.charlotte.com/local/story/332980.html

[63] ttp://www.hickoryrecord.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=HDR/MGArticle/HDR_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1173353358614

[64] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/mchenry_opponent_seeks_signatures

[65] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/former_mchenry_worker_takes_deal

[66] ttp://www.ourcampaigns.com/ContainerHistory.html?ContainerID=580

[67] ttp://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/819271.html

[68] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/apodaca_no_run_against_shuler

[69] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/mumpower_announces_campaign

[70] ttp://projects.newsobserver.com/blogs/campbell_to_run_against_mumpower

[71] veland.com

[72] ublic.cq.com

[73] whiotv.com

[74] tonrep.com

[75] .com

[76] vintoncourier.1upmonitor.com

[77] statesmanjournal.com

[78] st-gazette.com

[79] State Sen. Unger running for U.S. Congress The Register Herald May 21, 2007. Retrieved June 2, 2007

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@@ Line 805: / Line 805: @@
 * '''{{ushr|Indiana|2|}}'''— In 2006, [[Joe Donnelly]] (D) won by 54% to 46% in this swing district that  went to Bush with 55% of the vote in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4), largely as a result of displeasure with the GOP both nationally and at the state level. Even though the unpopularity of Governor [[Mitch Daniels]] may make it difficult for Republicans to take back the seat in 2008, they will look to challenge Donnelly. Possible GOP candidates include state Senator Thomas Weatherwax and [[Kokomo, Indiana|Kokomo]] City Controller Phil Williams.
-* '''{{ushr|Indiana|7|}}'''— After being diagnosed with terminal lung cancer, incumbent [[Julia Carson]] (D) has announced that she will not seek a 7th term. [http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/27/us/27brfs-ILLCONGRESSW_BRF.html?_r=1&oref=slogin] On Saturday, December 15, she passed away. The district is centered around urban [[Indianapolis, Indiana|Indianapolis]] and leans Democratic. Democratic Marion County treasurer Michael Rodman has announced that he would seek to succeed Carson should she choose to retire.  Carson's grandson and [[Indianapolis City-County Council]] member [[Andre Carson]], is the Democratic nominee for the special election and [[Indiana House of Representatives|State Representative]] [[Jon Elrod]] will run for the Republicans. Kerry won 58% here (Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9). The special election will be March 11, 2008.
+* '''{{ushr|Indiana|7|}}'''— After being diagnosed with terminal lung cancer, incumbent [[Julia Carson]] (D) has announced that she will not seek a 7th term. [http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/27/us/27brfs-ILLCONGRESSW_BRF.html?_r=1&oref=slogin] On Saturday, December 15, she passed away. The district is centered around urban [[Indianapolis, Indiana|Indianapolis]] and leans Democratic. Democratic Marion County treasurer Michael Rodman has announced that he would seek to succeed Carson should she choose to retire.  Carson's grandson and [[Indianapolis City-County Council]] member [[Andre Carson]], is the Democratic nominee for the special election and [[Indiana House of Representatives|State Representative]] [[Jon Elrod]] will runfor the Republicans. Kerry won 58% here (Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+9). The special election will be March 11, 2008.
 {{details|Indiana's 7th congressional district special election, 2008}}
@@ Line 812: / Line 812: @@
 * '''{{ushr|Indiana|9|}}'''— [[Baron Hill]] (D) narrowly won his old job back by 50% to 46% in 2006. The district went to [[George W. Bush]] with 59% of the vote in 2004(Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+7). Hill and [[Mike Sodrel]] (R) have faced off in three consecutive elections, Hill winning the first and third and Sodrel the second on a recount, so the outcome in 2008 is anything but certain.  To the delight and relief of his fellow Republicans, Sodrel has announced that he will run again [http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071009/LOCAL19/71009094/-1/LOCAL17]. Eric Schansberg the 2006 Libertarian candidate has announced he is again seeking his parties nomination for the District 9 race [http://lpinscr.blogspot.com/2007/11/indiana-libertarians-organizing-2008.html]
+===Iowa===
+*''' {{ushr|Iowa|1}}''' [[Bruce Braley]] (D) would seem a logical target for Republicans.  But while Braley is the first Democrat to represent the district since 1979, it's likely that he's begun a new trend.  The makeup of the district favors Democrats, and the DCCC will do everything in its power to maintain this Midwest foothold.  Absent a challenge from a truly compelling Republican challenge, Braley will be safe in 2008.<ref name=Iowa>{{cite web | title = Iowa House Race| publisher = UpFront Politics| url = http://upfrontpolitics.com/node/iowa-house-race| date = | accessdate =2008-01-27 }}</ref>
+*''' {{ushr|Iowa|2}}''' [[David Loebsack]] (D) The fight Loebsack had to put up in 2006, you’d think 2008 would be a tight race.  Loebsack unseated thirty-year incumbent Jim Leach to win by just over 5,000 votes.  This time around, things are looking a little better.  Loebsack is considerably popular in this Democratic-leaning district, so a second term looks likely.<ref name=Iowa/>
+*''' {{ushr|Iowa|4}}''' [[Tom Latham]] (R) Dispite the ever-so-slight Democratic advantage in the district, Republican incumbent Tom Latham has never experienced any particular difficulty getting reelected.  This time around is shaping up to be more of the same.<ref name=Iowa/>
 ===Kansas===

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