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| image1 = Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
| image1 = Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
| nominee1 = '''[[Donald Trump]]'''
| nominee1 = '''[[Donald Dump]]'''
| party1 = Republican Party (United States)
| party1 = Republican Party (United States)
| home_state1 = [[Florida]]
| home_state1 = [[Florida]]
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<!--SEE TALK PAGE CONSENSUS NOTE BEFORE ADDING OR REMOVING CANDIDATES. Inclusion criteria have been discussed, and ballot access is not a factor.-->
<!--SEE TALK PAGE CONSENSUS NOTE BEFORE ADDING OR REMOVING CANDIDATES. Inclusion criteria have been discussed, and ballot access is not a factor.-->
| title = President
| title = President
| before_election = [[Donald Trump]]
| before_election = [[Donald Dump]]
| before_party = Republican Party (United States)
| before_party = Republican Party (United States)
| after_election = [[Joe Biden]]
| after_election = [[Joe Biden]]

Revision as of 12:43, 8 November 2020

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Florida
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout%
Votes counted
96%
as of Nov. 5, 2020, 10:22 PM EST[1]
 
Nominee Donald Dump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Projected electoral vote 29 0
Popular vote 5,646,949 5,269,926
Percentage 51.2% 47.8%
President before election

Donald Dump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Florida
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Government

The 2020 United States presidential election in Florida was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[2] Florida voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Florida has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Florida, which has voted against the overall winner only twice since 1928, is once again a vital battleground state in this election.

Miami Beach, Florida, which hosted the 1972 Democratic National Convention, was a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention.[4] The other finalists were Milwaukee and Houston. Milwaukee was ultimately decided as the host.[5][6] Florida will be incumbent president Donald Trump's state of residency for this election, after having identified New York as his home state in 2016.[7] As a result, Trump became the first nominee of either major party to be a Florida resident. Vice President Joe Biden was selected as the Democratic Party's presidential nominee in the 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020.

United States Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit, located in Atlanta, ruled that ex-felons could not vote in Florida unless they pay fines and fees. Florida voters approved amendment 4 in November 2018, which restored voting for felons upon completion of all terms of sentence including parole or probation, except for those who committed murders or were involved in sex-crimes.[8] The Republican-controlled legislature then passed a law which required ex-felons to settle their financial obligation in courts. United States District Court in Tallahassee ruled against it in May, but the circuit court overturned it in September, which may create further problems for ex-felons to exercise their voting rights in November. Civil rights organizations including American Civil Liberties Union opposed the decision by the court.[9]

Trump ended up winning Florida by roughly three and a half percentage points, higher than he did in 2016. This was in part due to unexpectedly high support among Hispanic and Latino voters in the state, particularly in Miami-Dade County, where the Republicans got a higher share of the vote than they did in 2016 and the 2018 midterm elections. This also affected down-ballot races, where Republicans flipped the 26th and 27th congressional districts, seats which many political experts thought would reelect their Democratic representatives. It was also the first time since 1992, and also the second time since 1960, that Florida went to the losing candidate in a presidential election.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[10] Tossup October 5, 2020
Inside Elections[11] Tilt D (flip) October 5, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Lean R November 2, 2020
Politico[13] Tossup October 5, 2020
RCP[14] Tossup October 5, 2020
Niskanen[15] Likely D (flip) October 5, 2020
CNN[16] Tossup October 5, 2020
The Economist[17] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
CBS News[18] Tossup October 5, 2020
270towin[19] Tossup October 5, 2020
ABC News[20] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
NPR[21] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
NBC News[22] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020
538[23] Lean D (flip) October 5, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided[a] 		Margin
270 to Win October 24 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 48.7% 46.0% 5.3% Biden +2.7
Real Clear Politics October 28 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.9% 47.0% 5.1% Biden +0.9
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.1% 46.6% 4.3% Biden +2.5
Average 48.6% 46.5% 4.9% Biden +2.1

State polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
Insider Advantage/Fox 35 Nov 1–2, 2020[c] 400 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 47% 2% - – 3%
Trafalgar Group Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2020 – (V)[d] – 49% 47% 2% - 1% 1%
AYTM/Aspiration Oct 30 – Nov 1, 2020 517 (LV) – 43% 45% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 806 (LV) ± 3.45% 48% 51% 0% 0% – 1%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 46% 2% - 2%[e] 3%
Quinnipiac University Oct 28 – Nov 1, 2020 1,657 (LV) ± 2.4% 42% 47% - - 1%[f] 9%
Swayable Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,261 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 53% 1% 1% – –
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,202 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 51% 1% 1% 0%[g] –
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 670 (LV) ± 4.3% 46%[h] 50% 1% 0% 1%[i] –
46%[j] 50% - - 2%[k] 2%
47%[l] 51% - - 2%[m] –
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere[B] Oct 30–31, 2020 768 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 51% - - – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 29–31, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 48% - - 3%[n] –
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 27–31, 2020 1,451 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 47% 2% 1% 0%[o] 6%[p]
Morning Consult Oct 22–31, 2020 4,451 (LV) ± 2% 45% 52% - - – –
St. Pete Polls Oct 29–30, 2020 2,758 (LV) ± 1.9% 48% 49% 1% - – 2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 28–30, 2020 1,200 (LV) ± 2.8% 47%[h] 51% - - 2%[q] 0%
45%[r] 52% - - 2%[s] 0%
48%[t] 49% - - 2%[u] 0%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Oct 25–30, 2020 1,027 (LV) – 47% 51% - - 2%[v] –
AtlasIntel Oct 28–29, 2020 786 (LV) ± 3% 48.5% 48.5% - - – 3%
Public Policy Polling/Climate Power 2020[C] Oct 28–29, 2020 941 (V) – 45% 52% - - – 3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill Oct 26–29, 2020 1,148 (LV) ± >=3% 47% 50% - - – 3%
ABC/Washington Post Oct 24–29, 2020 824 (LV) ± 4% 50% 48% 1% 0% 0%[w] 0%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 27–28, 2020 1,587 (LV) – 46% 50% 1% 0% 0% 3%
Trafalgar Group Oct 25–28, 2020 1,088 (LV) ± 2.89% 50% 47% 2% - 1%[x] 1%
Monmouth University Oct 24–28, 2020 509 (RV) ± 4.7% 45% 50% 1% 0% 1%[y] 2%
509 (LV) 45%[z] 51% - - – –
46%[aa] 50% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 14,571 (LV) – 50% 48% - - – –
Marist College/NBC Oct 25–27, 2020 743 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 51% - - 1% 1%
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–27, 2020 1,324 (LV) ± 2.7% 42% 45% - - 1%[ab] 11%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 21–27, 2020 704 (LV) ± 4.2% 47%[h] 48% 1% 1% 2%[ac] –
47%[ad] 49% - - 3%[ae] 2%
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 605 (LV) ± 5.4% 51% 46% 2% 1% – –
YouGov/Institute of Politics at Florida State University Oct 16–26, 2020 1,200 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 48% - - – 6%
Wick Surveys Oct 24–25, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 47% - - – –
Florida Atlantic University Oct 24–25, 2020 937 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% Template:Party shading/Democrat|50% - - 2%[af] –
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Oct 23–25, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 44% 2% - 3%[ag] 3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research 		Oct 17–25, 2020 743 (RV) ± 3.56% 46% 49% - - 2%[ah] 3%
Ryan Tyson (R) Released Oct 24, 2020 – (V)[ai] – 47% 45% - - 3%[aj] 4%
Gravis Marketing Oct 24, 2020 665 (LV) ± 3.8% 48% 47% - - – 5%
YouGov/CBS Oct 20–23, 2020 1,228 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 50% - - 2%[ak] 0%
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics Oct 21–22, 2020 2,527 (LV) ± 2% 47% 49% - - 2%[al] 2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 20–22, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48%[h] 50% - - 1%[am] 1%
46%[an] 52% - - 1%[ao] 1%
48%[ap] 46% - - 1%[aq] 1%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 20–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 46% - - 3%[ar] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 14–21, 2020 662 (LV) ± 4.3% 46%[h] 51% 1% 0% 2%[as] –
46%[at] 50% - - 1%[au] 3%
Citizen Data Oct 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 45% 50% 1% 0% 1% 4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 17–20, 2020 863 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 51% - - 1%[av] 1%
CNN/SSRS Oct 15–20, 2020 847 (LV) ± 4% 46% 50% 1% 1% 0%[aw] 1%
Morning Consult Oct 11–20, 2020 4,685 (LV) ± 1.4% 45% 52% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19, 2020 547 (LV)[c] – 45% 50% - - – –
University of North Florida Oct 12–16, 2020 863 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 48% - - 1%[ax] 3%
HarrisX/The Hill[1] Oct 12–15, 2020 965 (LV) – 48% 48% - - – 4%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 7–14, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.4% 47%[h] 50% 0% 0% 2%[ay] –
47%[az] 49% - - 1%[ba] 3%
Trafalgar Group Oct 11–13, 2020 1,051 (LV) ± 2.94% 48% 46% 2% 1% 1%[bb] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–13, 2020 1,519 (LV) – 44%[c] 50% 1% 0% – –
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics Oct 11–12, 2020 2,215 (LV) ± 2.1% 47% 49% - - 1%[bc] 2%
Emerson College Oct 10–12, 2020 690 (LV) ± 3.7% 48%[bd] 51% - - 1%[be] –
Mason-Dixon Oct 8–12, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4% 45% 48% - - 1%[bf] 6%
Clearview Research Oct 7–12, 2020 550 (LV) ± 4.18% 40%[h] 47% - - 4%[bg] 9%
39%[bh] 48% - - 4%[bi] 9%
41%[bj] 46% - - 4%[bk] 9%
Morning Consult Oct 2–11, 2020 4,785 (LV) ± 1.4% 46% 51% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–10, 2020 750 (LV) – 42%[c] 53% 1% 0% – –
Florida Atlantic University Oct 9–10, 2020 644 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 51% - - 2%[bl] –
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Oct 4–8, 2020 800 (LV) – 46%[h] 48% 1% 1% 1% 4%
44%[bm] 50% 1% 1% 1% 4%
47%[bn] 46% 1% 1% 1% 4%
Insider Advantage/Hannity Exclusive (R) Oct 6–7, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 46% 1% - – 10%
YouGov/CCES Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 3,755 (LV) – 47% 49% - - – –
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 678 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 49% - - 1%[bo] 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6, 2020 998 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 49% 1% 0% 1%[bp] 6%
Quinnipiac University Oct 1–5, 2020 1,256 (LV) ± 2.8% 40% 51% - - 1%[bq] 7%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4, 2020 560 (LV) – 46% 50% - - – –
Suffolk University/USA Today[2] Oct 1–4, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45%[h] 45% 2% 0%[br] 2%[bs] 6%
46%[bt] 45% - - 2%[bu] 7%
University of North Florida Oct 1–4, 2020 3,134 (LV) ± 1.8% 45% 51% - - 1%[bv] 3%[bw]
St. Leo University Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 489 (LV) – 44% 50% - - – 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 710 (LV) ± 4.2% 42% 47% 2% 1% 0%[bx] 8%[by]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 12,962 (LV) – 47% 51% - - – 2%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce Sep 23–29, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 44%[c] 49% - - – –
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc./Center for American Greatness[A] Sep 23–26, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 46% 3% - – 8%[bz]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–25, 2020 1,073 (LV) ± 2.99% 43% 48% 1% 1% 1%[ca] 7%
St. Pete Polls Sep 21–22, 2020 2,906 (LV) ± 1.8% 47% 50% - - 2%[cb] 2%
Data For Progress[D] Sep 15–22, 2020 620 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 46% - - – 11%
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20, 2020 702 (LV) – 46% 49% - - – –
ABC/Washington Post Sep 15–20, 2020 613 (LV) ± 4.5% 51% 47% - - 1%[cc] 1%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[E] Sep 17–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 45% 51% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Sep 15–18, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 48% - - 1%[cd] 5%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–17, 2020 586 (LV) ± 4.6% 47% 47% - - 2%[ce] 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–14, 2020 1,158 (LV) ± 2.88% 44% 47% 1% 1% 1%[cf] 6%
Monmouth University Sep 10–13, 2020 428 (RV) ± 4.7% 45% 50% 2% 0% 1%[cg] 3%
428 (LV) 45%[ch] 50% - - 1%[ci] 3%
46%[cj] 49% - - 1%[ck] 3%
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report Aug 29 – Sep 13, 2020 1,009 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 43% - - 4%[cl] 11%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 11–12, 2020 631 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 50% - - 0%[cm] –
St. Pete Polls/Florida Politics/AARP Sep 7–8, 2020 2,689 (LV) ± 1.9% 47% 50% - - 2%[cn] 2%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 30 – Sep 8, 2020 1,600 (LV) ± 2.5% 46% 48% - - 2%[co] 4%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 3,914 (LV) ± (2%-4%) 43%[cp] 50% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6, 2020 1,144 (LV) – 46% 49% - - 4%[cq] –
Marist College/NBC Aug 31 – Sep 5, 2020 760 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 48% - - 1% 2%
Trafalgar Group Sep 1–3, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 2% - 1%[cr] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 3, 2020 1,093 (LV) ± 2.96% 43% 48% 1% 1% 1%[cs] 6%
GQR Research (D) Aug 26 – Sep 3, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 51% - - – –
Quinnipiac Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020 1,235 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 48% - - 1%[ct] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 12,286 (LV) – 50% 48% - - – 2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–30, 2020 3,790 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 47% 49% - - – –
Opinium/The Guardian[3] Aug 21–26, 2020 684 (LV) – 43% 50% - - 1% 6%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23, 2020 1,262 (LV) – 46% 49% - - – –
PPP Aug 21–22, 2020 671 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 48% - - – 7%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16, 2020 1,280 (LV) – 41% Template:Party shading/Democrat|49% 1% - 1%[cu] 7%
Morning Consult Aug 7–16, 2020 3,484 (LV) ± (2%–4%) 45% 50% - - – –
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[F] Aug 11–15, 2020 750 (LV) ± 4% 44% 46% 2% - 1%[cv] 6%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9, 2020 469 (LV) – 44% Template:Party shading/Democrat|50% - - – –
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action[G] Aug 2–4, 2020 400 (LV) – 49% 49% - - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 13,945 (LV) – 48% 49% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC[4] Jul 24–26, 2020 685 (LV) – 45% 48% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 17–26, 2020 3,760 (LV) ± 1.6% 46%[cw] 49% - - – –
Morning Consult Jul 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[cx] – 45% 49% - - – –
CNN/SSRS Jul 18–24, 2020 880 (RV) ± 3.8% 46% 51% - - 2%[cy] 2%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23, 2020 811 (RV) ± 3.4% 43% 43% 3% 2% – 9%
Mason-Dixon Jul 20–23, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 50% - - – 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–21, 2020 1,121 (LV) – 41% 48% 1% 1% 1%[cz] 8%
Quinnipiac University Jul 16–20, 2020 924 (RV) ± 4.3% 38% 51% - - 6%[da] 5%
Morning Consult Jul 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[db] – 45% 50% - - – –
Florida Politics/AARP Florida/St. Pete Polls Jul 13–14, 2020 3,018 (RV) ± 1.8% 44% 50% - - 2%[dc] 3%
Gravis Marketing Jul 13, 2020 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 53% - - – 4%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12, 2020 1,128 (LV) – 43% 50% - - – –
YouGov/CBS Jul 7–10, 2020 1,206 (LV) ± 3.6% 42% 48% - - 2%[dd] 8%
Morning Consult Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020 – (LV)[de] – 46% 49% - - – –
Trafalgar Group Jun 29 – Jul 2, 2020 1,072 (LV) ± 2.91% 46% 46% - - 5%[df] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 5,663 (LV) – 51% 47% - - – 2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28, 2020 951 (LV)[c] – 45% 50% - - – –
Morning Consult Jun 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[dg] – 45% 49% - - – –
Fox News Jun 20–23, 2020 1,010 (RV) ± 3% 40% 49% - - 6%[dh] 6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Jun 8–18, 2020 651 (RV) ± 4.6% 41% 47% - - 4%[di] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–15, 2020 1,079 (LV) ± 2.98% 41% 45% 1% 1% 1%[dj] 11%
Morning Consult Jun 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[dk] – 45% 50% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14, 2020 713 (LV)[c] – 43% 50% - - 3%[dl] –
Gravis Marketing/OANN Released Jun 11, 2020 – (V)[dm] – 50% 50% - - – –
TIPP/American Greatness PAC[A] Jun 9–11, 2020 875 (LV) – 40% 51% - - 4%[dn] 5%
Morning Consult May 27 – Jun 5, 2020 – (LV)[do] – 48% 47% - - – –
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31, 2020 1,186 (LV)[c] – 45% 48% - - 2% 4%
Cygnal (R) May 18–30, 2020 881 (LV) ± 3.3% 43.8% 47% - - 3.3%[dp] 5.9%
St. Pete Polls May 26–27, 2020 4,763 (RV) ± 1.4% 46.7% 47.5% - - 2.7%[dq] 3.1%
Morning Consult May 17–26, 2020 3,593 (LV) – 48%[dr] 47% - - – –
Morning Consult May 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[ds] – 48% 47% - - – –
Point Blank Political May 14–17, 2020 2,149 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 45% 1%[dt] <1%[du] 2% 8%
Point Blank Political May 14–17, 2020 2,149 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 52% - - – –
Morning Consult May 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[dv] – 50% 45% - - – –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14, 2020 1,014 (LV) ± 3.1% 43% 45% - - 3%[dw] 10%
Florida Atlantic University May 8–12, 2020 928 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 53% - - – –
Fox News Apr 18–21, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% - - 3% 7%
Quinnipiac University Apr 16–20, 2020 1,385 (RV) ± 2.6% 42% 46% - - 3% 7%
St. Pete Polls Apr 16–17, 2020 5,659 (RV) ± 1.3% 48% 48% - - – 4%
University of North Florida Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2020 3,244 (RV) ± 1.7% 40% 46% - - – 8%
AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% - - 10% –
Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 45% - - – 7%
Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (RV) ± 2.7% 51% 49% - - – –
University of North Florida Feb, 2020 696 (LV) – 45% 45% - - – 10%[dx]
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 51% - - – 8%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 668 (RV) – 48% 49% - - – 3%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51% - - – –
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 45% - - – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% - - – 8%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 46% - - – –
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 48% - - 6%[dy] 3%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5% - - – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 41% 50% - - 1% 6%
St. Pete Polls Jun 15–16, 2019 3,095 (LV) ± 1.8% 47% 47% - - – 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 50% - - – –
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 48% 44% - - – 7%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 36% 52% – 12%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 672 (RV) – 44% 50% – 6%
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 49% 44% – –

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 45% – 15%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 664 (RV) – 49% 45% – 7%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 50% 50% – –
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% – 6%
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 42% 7%[dz] 9%
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 44% 1% 9%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 41% 8%[ea] 7%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 52% 48% – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 53% 47% – –

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 43% – 16%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 662 (RV) – 48% 44% – 8%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% 1% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Mar 14–16, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11% –
Univision Mar 6–12, 2020 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% – 8%
Florida Atlantic University Mar 5–7, 2020 1,216 (LV) ± 2.7% 53% 47% – –
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 49% – 11%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 671 (RV) – 48% 48% – 4%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 47% 53% – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 44% – 7%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% – –
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50.5% 49.5% – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 42% 48% 1% 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 49% – –

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
Saint Leo University Feb 17–22, 2020 900 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 44% – 14%
University of North Florida Feb 10–18, 2020 661 (RV) – 47% 47% – 6%
Florida Atlantic University Jan 9–12, 2020 1,285 (RV) ± 2.6% 49% 51% – –
Cherry Communications/Florida Chamber of Commerce[H] Jan 3–12, 2020 608 (LV) ± 4% 50% 43% – –
Mason-Dixon Dec 11–16, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 42% – 7%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–26, 2019 650 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 42% – –
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% 6%[eb] 6%
Florida Atlantic University Sep 12–15, 2019 934 (RV) ± 3.1% 50% 50% – –
Quinnipiac University Jun 12–17, 2019 1,279 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 47% 1% 6%
Florida Atlantic University May 16–19, 2019 1,007 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 48% – –
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 828 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 48% – 14%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Oprah
Winfrey (D) 		Other Undecided
Dixie Strategies Jan 9–10, 2018 785 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 24% 15% 13%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] Jun 14–16, 2019 679 (V) ± 3.8% 44% 51% 6%
Mason-Dixon Jan 14–17, 2019 625 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9%

with Donald Trump and generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
Quinnipiac University Mar 6–11, 2019 1,058 (V) ± 3.7% 31% 51%[ec] 18%[ed]

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 39% 49% 8%[ee] 5%

with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
St. Leo University Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 489 (LV) ± 3.0% 46.8% 46.7% 6.5%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
University of North Florida Oct 14–20, 2019 643 (RV) ± 3.8% 40% 46% 8%[ef] 6%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Florida[24]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
Reform Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
Write-in
Total votes

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on March 17, 2020.

Republican primary

The Florida secretary of state declared Rocky De La Fuente to be a major candidate and thus worthy of automatic inclusion on the ballot.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Republican presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]
2020 Florida Republican presidential primary[25][26]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 1,162,984 93.79 122
Bill Weld 39,319 3.17
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 25,464 2.05
Rocky De La Fuente 12,172 0.98
Total 1,239,939 100% 122

Democratic primary

Three Democrats were still in race by the time Florida held its primaries: Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, former vice president Joe Biden, and representative from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard.[27][28][29]

The first Democratic debate took place in Miami over two nights at the end of June 2019. It was broadcast on several of the NBC networks.[30]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary § FLresults.[edit]
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
  Biden—80–90%
2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary[31]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[32]
Joe Biden 1,077,375 61.95 162
Bernie Sanders 397,311 22.84 57
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[eg] 146,544 8.43
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) 39,886 2.29
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[eg] 32,875 1.89
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) 17,276 0.99
Tulsi Gabbard 8,712 0.50
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 5,286 0.30
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 4,244 0.24
Tom Steyer (withdrawn) 2,510 0.14
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 1,744 0.10
John Delaney (withdrawn) 1,583 0.09
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 1,507 0.09
Julián Castro (withdrawn) 1,036 0.06
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 664 0.04
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 661 0.04
Total 1,739,214 100% 219

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  4. ^ Not yet released
  5. ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  8. ^ a b c d e f g h i Standard VI response
  9. ^ West (B) with 1%; "Some other candidate" and would not vote with 0%
  10. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  11. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  12. ^ Results considering those who lean towards a given candidate among those initially predisposed towards abstention, indecision or a candidate besides Biden or Trump in the response section immediately above
  13. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  15. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  16. ^ Includes "Refused"
  17. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  18. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  19. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  20. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  21. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  22. ^ "Not sure/Someone else/Undecided" with 2%
  23. ^ "None of these" and "Other" with 0%; would not vote with no voters
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  25. ^ "Other candidate" with 1%; "No one" with 0%
  26. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring high turnout
  27. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring low turnout
  28. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  29. ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  30. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  31. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
  32. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  33. ^ "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  34. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  35. ^ Not yet released
  36. ^ "Refused" with 3%
  37. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
  38. ^ "Third Party" with 2%
  39. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  40. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  41. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  42. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  43. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  44. ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  45. ^ "Some other candidate" and West (B) with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  46. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  47. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  48. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  49. ^ "Other" and "None of these" with 0%
  50. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  51. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; West (B) and would not vote with 0%
  52. ^ If only Biden, Trump and "some other candidate" were available
  53. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  54. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  55. ^ "Third party" with 1%
  56. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  57. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  58. ^ "One of the other party or independent tickets" with 1%
  59. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  60. ^ Under a +2 Democratic turnout model
  61. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  62. ^ Under a conservative +2 Republican turnout model
  63. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  64. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  65. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  66. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  67. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
  68. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  69. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  70. ^ No voters
  71. ^ "Refused" with 2%; La Riva (PSOL) with 1%; Blankenship (C), Fuente (A) and "other" with no voters
  72. ^ With the preferences of La Riva and Jorgensen voters in an election featuring only Biden and Trump
  73. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 0%
  74. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  75. ^ Includes "Refused"
  76. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  77. ^ Includes "Refused"
  78. ^ Includes "Refused"
  79. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  80. ^ "Third party" with 2%
  81. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "other" and would not vote with no voters
  82. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
  83. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  84. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  85. ^ "No one" with 1%
  86. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  87. ^ "Other" with 1%
  88. ^ With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  89. ^ "Other" with 1%
  90. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; "Refused" and would not vote with 1%
  91. ^ "Someone else" with 0%
  92. ^ "Third party" with 2%
  93. ^ Would not vote with 2%
  94. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  95. ^ "Other/not sure" with 4%
  96. ^ "Another Party Candidate" with 1%
  97. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  98. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  99. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  100. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  101. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  102. ^ Not yet released
  103. ^ "Other" with 1%; "Neither" 1%
  104. ^ "Another third party/write-in" with 1%
  105. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  106. ^ Not yet released
  107. ^ "Third-party candidate" with 2%
  108. ^ "Someone else/third party" with 2%; would not vote with 0%
  109. ^ Not yet released
  110. ^ "Other party candidate" with 5%
  111. ^ Not yet released
  112. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  113. ^ "Another candidate" and would not vote with 2%
  114. ^ "Another Third Party/Write-in" with 1%
  115. ^ Not yet released
  116. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  117. ^ Not yet released
  118. ^ "Other" with 3%; "prefer not to answer" with 1%
  119. ^ Not yet released
  120. ^ "Third party candidate" with 3.3%
  121. ^ "Third party" with 2.7%
  122. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  123. ^ Not yet released
  124. ^ "Libertarian nominee" with 1.2%
  125. ^ "Green nominee" with 0.4%
  126. ^ Not yet released
  127. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
  128. ^ Includes "Refused"
  129. ^ Wouldn't vote with 6%
  130. ^ Wouldn't vote with 7%
  131. ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
  132. ^ Wouldn't vote with 6%
  133. ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 51%
  134. ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "don't know/no answer" with 4%
  135. ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
  136. ^ Wouldn't vote with 8%
  137. ^ a b Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday when early voting had begun in a few counties.
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
  2. ^ Compete Everywhere primarily supports Democratic candidates
  3. ^ Climate Power 2020 was created by the League of Conservation Voters, which endorsed Biden prior to the sampling period
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  5. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  6. ^ The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  7. ^ Heritage Action is the sister organisation of the Heritage Foundation, which exclusively endorses Republican candidates
  8. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce PAC
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by the League of Conservation Voters

References

  1. ^ "Florida Election Results 2020". The New York Times. Retrieved November 5, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Cruise ship hotels, zoo parties and an NBA arena: Miami's Democratic convention pitch". miamiherald. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
  5. ^ "City of Milwaukee 1 of 3 finalists to host 2020 Democratic National Convention". FOX6Now.com. June 20, 2018. Retrieved July 1, 2018.
  6. ^ Glauber, Bill (August 22, 2018). "Selection committee for 2020 Democratic Convention will visit Milwaukee next week". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Retrieved August 24, 2018.
  7. ^ Haberman, Maggie (November 4, 2019). "Trump, Lifelong New Yorker, Declares Himself a Resident of Florida". The New York Times.
  8. ^ "Initiative Information". Florida Division of Elections. Retrieved September 26, 2018.
  9. ^ https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/09/11/us/trump-vs-biden
  10. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  11. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  14. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  15. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  16. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  17. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  19. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  20. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  22. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  24. ^ "Candidates and Races". Florida Department of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
  25. ^ "March 17, 2020 Primary Election". Florida Department of State. Florida Division of Elections. March 31, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  26. ^ "Florida Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
  27. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  28. ^ Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  29. ^ Detrow, Scott (February 1, 2019). "Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020". NPR. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  30. ^ "First Democratic Debate 2019: Highlights, candidates and more". NBC News.
  31. ^ "March 17, 2020 Primary Election: Democratic Primary". Florida Department of State Division of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  32. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved March 20, 2020.

Further reading

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