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Second Nagorno-Karabakh War

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2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Part of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

  Territory controlled by the Republic of Artsakh including Armenian-controlled territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh
  Territory claimed by the Republic of Artsakh but controlled by Azerbaijan
  Territory captured by Azerbaijan (per Azerbaijan)
Date27 September 2020 (2020-09-27) – present (3 years, 9 months, 1 week and 6 days)
Location
Nagorno-Karabakh line of contact, Armenia–Azerbaijan border and Azerbaijan–Iran border
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes		 Azerbaijan reported to have captured 7 settlements and several heights including Murovdag,[3][4][5] while Artsakh reported some were later recaptured[6][7]
Belligerents
 Azerbaijan
Supported by:
Supported by:
Alleged:
Arms suppliers:
  Artsakh
 Armenia
Alleged:
Arms suppliers:
Commanders and leaders
Ilham Aliyev
(President, Commander-in-Chief)
Col. Gen. Zakir Hasanov
(Minister of Defence)
Col. Gen. Najmaddin Sadigov (Chief of the General Staff)
Maj. Gen. Mais Barkhudarov[8]		 Arayik Harutyunyan (President, Commander-in-Chief)
Jalal Harutyunyan (Minister of Defence)
Karen Jalavyan [7]
Nikol Pashinyan
(Prime Minister, Commander-in-Chief)
David Tonoyan (Minister of Defence)
Onik Gasparyan (Chief of the General Staff)
Units involved
Azerbaijani Armed Forces
Alleged:
 Artsakh Defence Army
Armed Forces of Armenia
Strength
Unknown
Units:
Alleged
 Unknown
Casualties and losses

Per Azerbaijan:

Units:
    • One combat helicopter damaged[16]

Per Armenia:[17]

  • ~830 servicemen killed
  • 1,900 servicemen wounded
Units:
    • 137 tanks/IFVs destroyed
    • 39 other armored equipment
    • 17 UAVs downed
    • 7 helicopters downed
    • 3 aircraft downed

Per other sources:

  • 30+ servicemen killed (Islamic World News)[18]
  • 28–30 Syrian fighters killed, 62 injured or missing (various Syrian sources)[f]

Per Armenia:

Units:

Per Azerbaijan:[21][22]

  • 2,300+ servicemen killed or wounded
Units:
    • 6 command posts, and command-observation posts destroyed
    • ~200 tanks/IFVs destroyed
    • 110 other military vehicles destroyed
    • 228 artillery installations, multiple launch rocket systems and mortars destroyed
    • 18 UAVs downed
    • 5 ammunition depots destroyed
    • 300 units of air defense systems destroyed
    • 50 anti-tank weapons destroyed
19 Azerbaijani and 13 Armenian civilians killed;[23][19] 55 Azerbaijani[23] and 60+ Armenian civilians injured[19]
2 French journalists injured[24]

The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is an ongoing armed conflict between the armed forces of Azerbaijan and Armenia, together with self-proclaimed Artsakh in Nagorno-Karabakh region, and is the latest escalation of the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The clashes began on the morning of 27 September 2020 along the Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact. Both sides reported military and civilian casualties.[25] In response to the clashes, Armenia and the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh introduced martial law and total mobilization,[26][27] while Azerbaijan introduced martial law and a curfew.[28] On 28 September, partial mobilization was declared in Azerbaijan.[29] The United Nations has strongly condemned the conflict and called on both sides to deescalate tensions and resume meaningful negotiations without delay.[30]

Background

The clashes stem from the dispute over the Armenian-majority Nagorno-Karabakh, an internationally recognised territory of Azerbaijan, which is presently held by the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh,[31][32][33][26] and due to the failure of international mediation, particularly the Madrid Principles.[34][35] The Nagorno-Karabakh War had ended with a ceasefire in 1994, with the Republic of Artsakh in control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, as well as the surrounding districts of Aghdam, Jabrail, Fuzuli, Kalbajar, Gubadli, Lachin and Zangilan of Azerbaijan. According to the 2018 war report prepared by the Geneva Academy of International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights, "Armenia exercises its authority over Nagorno-Karabakh by equipping, financing or training and providing operational support to the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and its forces, but also in coordinating and helping the general planning of their military and paramilitary activities".[36] For three decades multiple violations of the ceasefire have occurred, the most serious being the 2016 Nagorno-Karabakh clashes and the July 2020 clashes at the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.[37] Thousands of Azerbaijanis demonstrated for war against Armenia, with Turkey propagandising in support of Azerbaijan.[38]

On 23 July 2020, Armenia announced the start of a joint air defence system exercise with Russia and an analysis of July 2020 clashes.[39] A week later, Azerbaijan conducted a series of military exercises that lasted from 29 July to 10 August,[40][41][42] and further exercises in early September with the involvement of Turkey.[43]

Prior to the resumption of hostilities, allegations emerged that hundreds of Syrian National Army members from the Hamza Division were transferred to Azerbaijan,[44] while according to Turkish media close to President Erdogan many YPG and PKK members from Iraq and Syria were transferred to Nagorno-Karabakh in order to train Armenian militias against Azerbaijan.[45] Armenia's President Armen Sarkissian refuted Turkish media's claims of Kurdish militants in Nagorno-Karabakh, calling them "absolute nonsense".[46]

Timeline of military engagements

This timeline of engagements relies primarily on official statements from belligerents. The engagements have been characterised by the use of heavy artillery, armoured warfare, including tanks, and drone warfare.

27 September

According to the Office of the President of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh, hostilities commenced when at 08:03 Azerbaijani armed forces launched artillery and aerial strikes against civilian settlements, including the capital, Stepanakert. Authorities urged the population to seek cover in bomb shelters.[47] An air-raid siren was turned on in Stepanakert.[48] Azerbaijani authorities stated that at about 06:00 local time, Armenian armed forces started intensive shelling of Azerbaijani army positions along the entire front line and of nearby Azerbaijani settlements.[49] Azerbaijan stated that the Armenian side had attacked and that Azerbaijan had launched a counteroffensive in response.[50] Hikmet Hajiyev, senior adviser to Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, accused Armenian forces of launching attacks along the front line.[51]

The Armenian Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated that an Azerbaijani offensive, aimed at Stepanakert, began at 08:10 local time (04:10 GMT).[52] In the offensive Azerbaijan stated it deployed manpower, tank and rocket artillery units, aircraft and UAVs.[53] The Republic of Artsakh then introduced martial law and total mobilization of its male population.[27] Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev addressed the nation concerning the clashes.[54] In the afternoon martial law and a curfew was were introduced in Azerbaijan, with martial law to be effective from midnight, 28 September, while the curfew was stated to be effective in Baku, major cities and some regions from 21:00 to 06:00 local time. In the clashes the Azerbaijani military deployed tanks, artillery, missile systems and aircraft near the front and entered deeper into Nagorno-Karabakh.[55] According the Armenian MoD, in the morning Azerbaijani armed forces also attacked in the direction of Vardenis in Armenia proper.[56]

By the afternoon, the Azerbaijani MoD stated it had taken seven villages in Nagorno-Karabakh: Garakhanbayli, Garvand, Horadiz, Yuxarı Əbdürrəhmanlı, Aşağı Əbdürrəhmanlı, Boyuk Marjanli and Nuzgar.[57][58] The Ministry of Defence of Artsakh denied these claims, accusing the Azerbaijani army of propagandising.[59] At 16:29, the Ministry announced that the Azerbaijani Military Command proposed that the Armenian command in this zone surrender, in order to avoid an attack on its garrison in Aghdara and reduce casualties, while affirming that civilians and prisoners of war would be treated in accordance with international humanitarian law and the Geneva Conventions, and stating resistance would be met by force.[60] In the afternoon, the Azerbaijani MoD stated it had taken a mountain peak in the Murovdag range.[61] The Ministry also stated that Azerbaijani forces had taken effective control of the Vardenis–Martakert/Aghdara highway, connecting Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia;[62] the Armenian MoD denied these claims.[63][better source needed] Subsequently, the Azerbaijani MoD claimed that an Azerbaijani drone destroyed an Armenian military depot.[64]

The Deputy Governor of East Azerbaijan, Alyar Rastgoo, stated that as a result of the clashes, a stray artillery projectile had hit the village of Khalaf Beyglu in Khoda Afarin County, in Iran, resulting in no financial damage or human casualties.[65]

28 September

Murovdag peak (above) and Vardenis–Martakert/Aghdara M11 highway (below), which came under Azerbaijani control according to the country's defence ministry.

At approximately 01:00, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage depicting three Armenian military vehicles being targeted on the line of contact by Azerbaijani strikes. The Ministry denied Armenian claims, including regarding its casualties, and leveled accusations of Armenian propagandising in the faces of claimed Azerbaijani military successes.[66] At approximately 6:45, the Azerbaijani MoD released further footage, depicting the apparent destruction of Armenian materiel and vehicles.[67] At approximately 08:00, the Ministry stated that Armenian forces had fired upon Tartar in the early morning and issued a warning,[68] while the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Armenian forces had purposefully targeted civilian sites and civilians.[69] The Azerbaijani MoD released footage depicting the targeting of two Armenian tanks.[70] The President of Artsakh stated that during the morning's clashes, Armenian forces regained control over a number of previously ceded positions.[71] At approximately 10:00, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage of an engagement and claimed that Azerbaijani forces had gained strategically advantageous high ground around Talış, while claiming that Armenian forces had incurred heavy losses.[72] The Azerbaijani MoD alleged that among the Armenian casualties were mercenaries of Armenian origin from Syria and from a variety of Middle East countries.[73]

At approximately 13:10, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing two Armenian tanks being destroyed by Azerbaijani UAVs.[74] At approximately 14:00, the Armenian media stated that an Azerbaijani UAV had been shot down near Vardenis.[75] The President of the Republic of Artsakh stated that Azerbaijani forces were facing attacks on all fronts from Armenian forces.[76] At about 15:30, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that the Armenian military was encountering supply problems.[77] Shortly after, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that Azerbaijani forces had fired on Armenian artillery units in the direction of Aghdara that had been targeting Azerbaijani-controlled settlements. According to the Ministry, Armenian units incurred losses from artillery fire and were forced to withdraw.[78]

At approximately 17:00, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing destroyed Armenian military vehicles and claimed that additional Armenian military vehicles had been destroyed along the front.[79] At approximately 19:00, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that Armenian forces had fired upon Yuxarı Ağcakənd and Qaramusalı in Goranboy District.[80] At approximately 20:00, the Deputy Commander of the Artsakh Defence Army, Arthur Sargsyan, stated that Armenian forces had retaken some positions.[81] The chairman of the National Assembly of the Republic of Artsakh, Arthur Tovmasyan, stated that Armenian forces had repelled Azerbaijani forces and had advanced into Azerbaijani territory.[82] Subsequently, at approximately 21:00, the Head of the Command and Personnel Faculty of the Vazgen Sargsyan Military University of the Ministry of Defence of the Republic of Armenia, Artsrun Hovhannisyan, stated that Azerbaijani forces had launched a new major offensive operation in the Aras Valley and in the Madagiz–Talış direction.[83] Approximately one hour later, Poghosyan claimed that an Azerbaijani airplane had been shot down near Khojavend;[84] this was denied by Azerbaijan.[85] Additionally, the Azerbaijani MoD denied allegations that Azerbaijan had used F-16s during the conflict, stating the Azerbaijani Air Force does not possess F-16s.[86]

Iranian media reported that two more rockets landed near homes in Khoda Afarin County.[87]

29 September

At approximately 08:00, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that intensified clashes had continued along the entire length of the front during the night; it added that while Armenian forces repeatedly attempted to counterattack, Azerbaijani units had repelled them. Concurrently, Azerbaijani aerial and ground forces allegedly destroyed a mixed column of Armenian military vehicles travelling from Madagiz in the direction of Aghdere, together with an artillery battery providing fire support.[88] At approximately 09:00, the Ministry stated that starting from 07:30, the territory of the Dashkasan District of Azerbaijan had been subjected to artillery fire from Vardenis, in Armenia.[89] However, this was denied by the Armenian Foreign Ministry, which claimed that it was a fabrication meant to justify expanding the theater of operations, including aggression against Armenia.[90] Hikmet Hajiyev, senior adviser to Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, stated that it was part of an "ongoing act of Armenian aggression against Azerbaijan where the next attack act against Azerbaijan has been carried out from the territory of a sovereign state – Armenia".[91] The Azerbaijani MoD then stated that an Azerbaijani offensive on Fuzuli City continued from the early morning, while at approximately 07:00–08:00 in the morning, Azerbaijani forces had destroyed four Armenian tanks in the Fizuli-Jabrayil area.[92] Approximately half an hour later, the Azerbaijani MoD denied territories had been lost.[93] The Armenian MoD stated that units belonging to the Artsakh Defence Army had destroyed Azerbaijani materiel.[94]

On 29 September, the clashes spilled over to Vardenis (above) and Daşkəsən (below), on the Armenian–Azerbaijani state border.

At 10:15, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing two Armenian tanks being destroyed.[95] Hovhannisyan stated that a second Azerbaijani UAV had been shot down.[96] At approximately 11:00, the Armenian MoD stated that the Azerbaijani military had opened fire on the Armenian military base in Vardenis, across the Armenian state border, also deploying its air force.[97] At the same time, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that the Armenian 3rd Martuni Motorized Rifle Regiment, stationed in Khojavend District, had been destroyed by Azerbaijani forces;[98] this was denied by the Artsakh Ministry of Defence.[99] The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that it had killed an Armenian colonel, in Jabrayil District,[100] and that Azerbaijani forces had destroyed an Armenian Uragan multiple rocket launcher in Khojavend District.[101] Subsequently, Hovhannisyan stated that Azerbaijani forces had attempted a further attack in southern and northern directions but had been repelled.[102] The Azerbaijani MoD accused Armenia of fabricating footage to improve domestic morale.[103]

At about 12:00, Hovhannisyan stated that one Azerbaijani gunship had been shot down;[104] the Azerbaijani MoD denied this, claiming that it had not employed helicopters that day.[105] It also stated that an Armenian tank had been destroyed near Göyarx in the former Aghdara District.[106] At approximately 12:40, Hovhannisyan stated that Artsakh Defence Army units had downed two helicopters using Igla man-portable surface-to-air missiles, and Artsakh released footage apparently showing this.[107] Hovhannisyan then stated that Azerbaijani forces were bombarding areas near Vardenis.[108] The Azerbaijani MoD stated it had destroyed a command-and-observation post belonging to the 1st Regiment of the Armenian Army in the Hadrut settlement in Khojavend District,[109] while the Armenian MoD stated that the Armenian military would be deploying heavier weapons and that its forces were repelling Azerbaijani offensives.[110] The Azerbaijani MoD stated that an Armenian attempt to assault Azerbaijani-controlled military positions from Aşağı Veysəlli in Fuzuli District had been repelled, with Armenian losses.[111] At approximately 13:20, the Armenian MoD stated that the Azerbaijani military had launched an offensive using artillery, UAVs, tanks and armored vehicles.[112] At approximately 15:30, the Azerbaijani MoD claimed that S-300 missile systems defending Yerevan's airspace were being redeployed in the direction of Nagorno-Karabakh and asserted that they would be destroyed.[113] Shortly after, the Artsakh Defence Army released footage apparently showing Armenian forces downing an Azerbaijani gunship,[114] with Hovhannisyan stating that Armenian forces had destroyed Azerbaijani tanks.[115] At approximately 16:30, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing Azerbaijani artillery units firing on Armenian forces.[116]

At approximately 18:00, the Artsakh MoD stated that Azerbaijani forces had attacked along the northern and north-eastern directions of the front with tanks, while Armenians had inflicted losses on Azerbaijani units.[117] Shortly after, the Armenian MoD stated that a Turkish F-16, taking off from Ganja International Airport, had downed an Armenian Su-25, killing the pilot;[9] this was denied by both Azerbaijani[118] and Turkish[119] authorities. Shortly after, the Armenian MoD released images of the wreckage of an Su-25.[120] According to Azerbaijan, two Su-25 jets took off on the territory of Armenia and later crashed into a mountain and exploded.[121] Then, at approximately 19:30, the Armenian MoD released footage apparently showing the destruction of an Azerbaijani unit.[122] At approximately 22:00, the Armenian MoD stated that an Azerbaijani convoy loaded with ammunition had been destroyed.[123] Approximately one hour later, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that Azerbaijani forces had destroyed positions occupied by the Armenian 1st Battalion of the 5th Motorized Infantry Regiment near Həsənqaya in Tartar District and the 1st Battalion of the 6th Motorized Infantry Regiment in the direction of Talış with artillery strikes.[124]

Iran stated that it had shot down a foreign drone in East Azerbaijan Province.[125]

30 September

According to the Armenian MoD, the clashes continued with lesser intensity overnight.[126] At approximately 01:10, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing the destruction of Armenian military vehicles, including tanks, in the area of Jabrayil District.[127] At approximately 08:30, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that Armenian forces had been shelling Tartar City for half an hour.[128] The Armenian MoD stated that Armenian forces had downed an Azerbaijani IAI Harop drone.[129] At approximately 10:20, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that Azerbaijani units had surrounded Armenian forces with the aid of artillery fire, and that clashes continued in the Aghdara/Martakert–Tartar area of the front.[130] At approximately 10:20, the Ministry stated that Armenian forces had started firing upon Aşağı Ağcakənd, in Goranboy District.[131] At approximately 11:10, the Armenian MoD stated that the Azerbaijani Air Force was attacking Armenian positions in the northern direction of the front.[132] The Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing the Azerbaijani military shelling Armenian positions.[133] At approximately 12:25, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that the Armenian 2nd Battalion of the 7th Mountain Rifle Regiment of the 10th Mountain Rifle Division, stationed in Tonaşen, had incurred heavy losses and retreated.[134] The Ministry then released footage apparently showing the attack.[135] It stated that Azerbaijani forces had fired upon the command post of the Armenian 41st Special Regiment of the 18th Motorized Division, inflicting casualties.[136] At approximately 13:00, the Ministry released footage apparently showing the destruction of Armenian military equipment, including infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and missile launchers, in the morning.[137] It released additional footage apparently showing the destruction of Armenian artillery, which had been shelling Azerbaijani positions.[138] The Armenian MoD stated that Armenian forces had destroyed a large quantity of Azerbaijani materiel, including a TOS-1A.[139] At approximately 15:00, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing Azerbaijani forces destroying two Armenian tanks.[140] The Ministry also stated that Azerbaijani forces had shelled the 4th Armenian Battalion, stationed in Fuzuli District,[141] and that its forces had attacked the headquarters of the Armenian 5th Mountain Rifle Regiment of the 10th Mountain Rifle Division, stationed in Aghdara.[142] The Armenian MoD stated that Armenian forces had destroyed Azerbaijani outposts and materiel.[143] The Azerbaijani MoD released three videos apparently showing the destruction of Armenian materiel.[144][145][146] In turn, the Armenian MoD released footage apparently showing Armenian forces advancing towards Azerbaijani positions.[147]

1 October

According to the Azerbaijani MoD, clashes continued overnight, with Azerbaijani units shelling Armenian positions,[148] while the Artsakh MoD stated that the overnight situation had been relatively stable.[149] At approximately 01:10, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage claiming to show the destruction of Armenian materiel.[150][151] At approximately 10:00, it stated that the Armenian forces had been shelling Tartar city during the morning.[152] At approximately 11:00, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing the destruction of Armenian artillery pieces.[153] The Armenian MoD stated that the Armenian forces shot down an Azerbaijani UAV near Askeran,[154] while the Artsakh MoD stated that Armenian forces had repelled Azerbaijani advances.[155] About half an hour later, it stated that Armenian forces had shot down an Azerbaijani gunship near Lalatapa, with wreckage falling into Iranian territory;[156] this was denied by Azerbaijan.[157] At approximately 13:00, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that areas within the Jabrayil and Fuzuli districts were under rocket fire from Goris, in Armenia.[158] Approximately half an hour later, it stated that Armenian forces were shelling Çocuq Mərcanlı, Horadiz, and front-line villages in the Goranboy, Tartar and Aghdam districts.[159] At approximately 14:40, the Artsakh MoD stated that Armenian forces had downed two Azerbaijani warplanes and one helicopter;[160] this was denied by Azerbaijan, which stated it had not deployed aircraft that day.[161] The Azerbaijani MoD claimed the destruction of several Armenian air defense assets and multiple launch rocket systems.[162] At approximately 19:00, the Ministry stated that Armenian forces had fired upon Horadiz from 17:50.[163] At approximately 23:00, the Armenian MoD stated that Azerbaijani forces were shelling Shatvan and Mets Masrik, both in Armenia proper.[164] Approximately half an hour later, the Ministry stated that Armenian forces had shot down an Azerbaijani UAV in Kotayk Province, in Armenia.[165]

Iranian media said that an Azerbaijani rocket had struck Parviz Khanloo, in Khoda Afarin, in Iran.[166]

2 October

According to the Azerbaijani MoD, during the night and in the morning, clashes continued in various areas of the front, and Azerbaijani forces captured and took control of dominant heights around Madagiz in the direction of Aghdara,[167] while the Artsakh MoD stated that the situation had been relatively stable, if tense.[168] At approximately 09:30, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that Xındırıstan, Alıbəyli, Əhmədağalı and Səfərli in Aghdam District were under intense Armenian artillery fire.[169] At approximately 11:00, the Ministry released footage apparently showing Armenian casualties and destruction of materiel.[170] At approximately 12:40, the Ministry stated that Quzanlı in Aghdam was under rocket fire from Nagorno-Karabakh, while about 10 missiles were fired from Armenia into Sabirkənd in Shamkir from the Tochka-U;[171][172] this was denied by Armenia.[173] The Ministry then stated that the Armenians had been firing upon Əmirli in Barda, Ağdam and Quzanlı in Tovuz districts with rockets.[174] At approximately 14:00, the Armenian MoD stated that Azerbaijani forces were bombarding Stepanakert.[175] Approximately an hour later, the Azerbaijani MoD released footage apparently showing the destruction of Armenian materiel.[176][177] At approximately 16:40, the Azerbaijani MoD stated that Tartar city and Şıxarx, and Soğanverdilər in Barda District were under Armenian artillery fire.[178] Approximately an hour later, the Ministry stated that Azerbaijani forces had destroyed an Armenian field control post, and shared footage apparently showing this, as well as the destruction of Armenian materiel.[179][180]

Actions by Armenia and Azerbaijan

Armenia

The slogan "#Հաղթելուենք" ("We will win") in the center of Yerevan in support of the Republic of Artsakh. 2 October 2020.

On 28 September, Armenia banned all men aged over 18 who were listed in the mobilization reserve from leaving the country.[181]

On 29 September, Armenia postponed the trial of the former President Robert Kocharyan and other former officials charged in the 2008 post-election unrest case. The reason given was that one of the defendants, the former Defence Minister of Armenia, Seyran Ohanyan, had gone to Artsakh during the Azerbaijani attack.[182]

On 1 October, TikTok was inaccessible in Armenia.[183] On the same day, the Armenian National Security Service stated that it had arrested and charged with treason a former high ranking Armenian military official on suspicion of spying for Azerbaijani intelligence agencies.[184]

Azerbaijan

File:2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict curfew in Baku, Azerbaijan 28 September 2020.jpg
File:Baku, Azerbaijan after the successes on the front, 29 September 2020 (1).png
File:Baku, Azerbaijan after the successes on the front, 29 September 2020 (2).png
File:Baku, Azerbaijan after the successes on the front, 29 September 2020 (3).png
Baku, during the curfew starting on 28 September.

On 27 September, Azerbaijani authorities restricted access to the Internet shortly after the clashes began. According to a statement by the Ministry of Transport, Connections and High-Tech Technologies, this step was taken to prevent Armenian provocations.[185] The State Committee on Work with Diaspora of the Republic of Azerbaijan appealed to Azerbaijanis living abroad not to employ dubious information on social networks, electronic media and in other media.[186] The National Assembly of Azerbaijan declared a curfew in Baku, Ganja, Goygol, Yevlakh and a number of districts from midnight on 28 September.[187][188] The Interior Minister, Vilayet Eyvazov, was appointed commander of the areas under curfew.[189] Azerbaijan Airlines announced that all airports in Azerbaijan would be closed to regular passenger flights until 30 September.[190] The Military Prosecutor's Offices of Fizuli, Tartar, Karabakh and Ganja began criminal investigations of war and other crimes.[191]

On 28 September, the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, issued a decree authorising a partial mobilization in Azerbaijan.[192]

Casualties

Civilian casualties

According to Armenian sources, on 27 September, two civilians were allegedly killed by Azerbaijani shelling in Martuni Province.[193] According to Beglaryan, "In Stepanakert alone, there are more than 10 injured, including children and women".[194] The Azerbaijani MoD denied these claims.[195]

According to Azerbaijani sources, the Armenian military has targeted densely populated areas containing civilian structures.[196] As of 1 October, the Prosecutor General's Office of the Republic of Azerbaijan stated that during the clashes, as a result of alleged shelling by Armenian artillery, 19 people had been killed, while 55 people had been hospitalized.[23] Casualties include five residents of Qaşaltı Qaraqoyunlu, in Naftalan;[197][198] a civilian from Evoğlu;[199] several civilians in or from Tartar;[200][201][202] two civilians in the Shikharkh settlement in Tartar District; a civilian in Garadaghli in Aghdam,[203] a civilian from Horadiz,[204] and two civilians from Aghdam.[205]

On 1 October, two French journalists from Le Monde covering the clashes in Martuni were injured by Azerbaijani shellfire.[206]

Military casualties

Since the beginning of the clashes the government of Azerbaijan have not revealed the number of military casualties.[207] Azerbaijan has claimed over 2,300 Armenian servicemen killed or wounded. It claims to have destroyed about 200 tanks and other armored vehicles; 110 other military vehicles; six command and command-observation posts; 228 artillery pieces; multiple launch rocket systems, including a BM-27 Uragan; 300 Armenian anti-aircraft units, including an S-300 and 15 9K33 Osas; 18 UAVs, and five ammunition depots.[21][22] As of 2 October, the Center for Economic Reforms Analysis and Communication of Azerbaijan estimated Armenian losses at US$1.2 billion.[208] In turn an Azerbaijani helicopter was stated to have been damaged, but its crew had apparently returned it to Azerbaijani-controlled territory without casualties.[16]

Armenian and Artsakh authorities initially claimed the downing of four Azerbaijani helicopters and the destruction of ten tanks and IFVs, as well as 15 drones.[209] Later the numbers were revised to 400 Azerbaijani soldiers killed,[210] 36 tanks and armored personnel vehicles destroyed, two armored combat engineering vehicles destroyed and four helicopters and 27 unmanned aerial vehicles downed all within the first day of hostilities.[211] They released footage showing the destruction or damage of five Azerbaijani tanks,[212][213][214] together with the names and ranks of at least 82 Azerbaijani servicemen killed .[215][216][217] The Artsakh Defence Army claimed the destruction of 39 Azerbaijani military vehicles, including a T-90 tank, 4 SU-25 fighter-bombers, 3 Mi-24 attack helicopters, 17 UAVs, and 830 personnel (presumed killed or wounded) over the course of 2 October.[218]

As of 2 October, Artsakh authorities reported the deaths of 151 servicemen, with over 120 injured,[19] including the Armenian pilot of a downed Su-25.[9]

Analysis

In an interview given on 27 September regional expert Thomas de Waal stated that it was highly unlikely that the hostilities were initiated by the Armenian side. "Basically, Armenians won the war of the 1990s, they have all the territory they want", de Waal said. "Their incentive is to normalize the status quo". "For various reasons, Azerbaijan calculates that military action will win it something", he said.[219]

One commentator in the journal Foreign Policy predicted that Azerbaijan would have great difficulty in trying to occupy the entire area of Nagorno-Karabakh due to the extremely inaccessible mountainous terrain controlled by Armenian troops. In addition, he opined that the readiness of the Azerbaijani army was very poor, with the army being very unhappy, corrupt and inefficient, with as much as a 20 percent desertion rate. Further, despite large investments in the purchase of military equipment from oil profits, the Azerbaijani army was said to lack adequate training for the use of new equipment.[220]

The suspected immediate goal of the Azerbaijani attack is to capture the districts of Fuzuli and Jabrayil in southern Nagorno-Karabakh, where the terrain is less mountainous and more favorable for offensive operations.[221]

Official statements

Armenia and Artsakh

File:NA moment silence.jpg
President of the National Assembly Ararat Mirzoyan (second from left) leads a moment of silence honoring Armenian soldiers and civilians who perished in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

On 27 September, the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, accused the Azerbaijani authorities of a large-scale provocation. The Prime Minister stated that the "recent aggressive statements of the Azerbaijani leadership, large-scale joint military exercises with Turkey, as well as the rejection of OSCE proposals for monitoring clearly indicate that this aggression was pre-planned and constitutes a large-scale provocation against peace and security in region".[222]

On 28 September, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia issued a statement, claiming that the "people of Artsakh are at war with the Turkish–Azerbaijani alliance".[223] The Armenian Ambassador to Russia, Vardan Toganyan, did not rule out that Armenia may turn to Russia for fresh arms supplies.[224]

On 29 September, Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that Azerbaijan, with military support from Turkey, was expanding the theater into Armenian territory.[225]

On 30 September, Prime Minister Pashinyan stated that Armenia was considering officially recognising the Republic of Artsakh as an independent territory.[226] On the same day, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the Turkish Air Force had carried out provocative flights along the front between the forces of the Republic of Artsakh and Azerbaijan, including providing air support to the Azerbaijani army.[227]

On 1 October, the President of Artsakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, stated that Armenians need to prepare for a long-term war.[228]

Azerbaijan

Meeting of the Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev with the country's Security Council on 27 September.

On 26 September, according to the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence, the day before the offensive, the Armenian military had fired in different directions along the front line, violating the ceasefire 48 times. Azerbaijan stated that the Armenian side attacked first, and stated that the Azerbaijani forces then launched a counter-offensive.[229]

On 27 September, the Office of the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, accused Armenian forces of a "willful and deliberate" attack on the front line,[230] and in "deliberately targeting of the residential areas and the civilians", calling it a "gross violation of international humanitarian law".[231] On 28 September, the Office of the President of Azerbaijan stated that Armenia's actions had destroyed the peace negotiations through an act of aggression against Azerbaijan,[232] adding that a war had been launched against Azerbaijan, mobilising the people of Azerbaijan, and declaring a Great Patriotic War.[233] The Office then stated that the deployment of the Armenian military in Nagorno-Karabakh constituted a threat to regional peace and accused Armenia of propagandising, adding that the Azerbaijani military was operating according to international law.[234] The Azerbaijani State Committee for Family, Women and Children Affairs issued a statement accusing the Armenian military of purposefully targeting civilians, including women and children.[235] Furthermore, the Azerbaijani Minister of Foreign Affairs denied any claims of Turkish involvement, while admitting military-technical cooperation with Turkey and other countries.[236]

On 29 September, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, received the credentials of the newly appointed Ambassador of Pakistan to Azerbaijan, Bilal Hayee, and spoke about the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. The President stated that the Armenian occupation and aggression had led to the destruction of infrastructure and mosques, caused the Khojaly massacre, and resulted in cultural genocide, resulting in an insult to the Muslim world and were tantamount to an official policy of Islamophobia and hatred of Azerbaijanis.[237] The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) and Prosecutor General's Office issued a joint statement on alleged war crimes against civilians by Armenia.[238] During a briefing jointly held by the Azerbaijani MoFA and Prosecutor General's Office, the Azerbaijani MoFA demanded that Armenia stop shelling civilians and called on international organizations to ensure Armenia followed international law.[239] The Azerbaijani Ambassador to Russia Polad Bülbüloğlu denied reports of mercenaries brought in from Turkey by Azerbaijan,[240] and the First Vice-President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, Mehriban Aliyeva, stated that Azerbaijan had never laid claim to others' territory nor had it ever committed crimes against humanity.[241]

Allegations of third-party involvement

Because of the geography, history, and sensitivities of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, accusations, allegations, and statements have been made of involvement by third-party and international actors, including in media reports and by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).

Turkey and Syrians

Two days into the armed conflict, several pro-Turkish Syrian rebels and the SOHR[10] alleged that a private Turkish security company had begun signing up Syrian volunteers to fight in Artsakh;[242] Azerbaijan[243] and Turkey[244] A report in The Times partially confirmed Turkish involvement in sending 200 Syrian mercenaries to support Azerbaijani forces.[245]

The SOHR has confirmed a total of 320 Syrian rebels in Azerbaijan, primarily of Syrian-Turkmen descent from the Sultan Murad Division, and noted that they had not participated in the clashes. The SOHR stated that Arab-majority Syrian rebel groups refused to send their fighters to Azerbaijan.[246] As of 1 October 2020, the SOHR confirmed the deaths of 28 Syrian fighters and nearly 60 reported injured or missing in the previous two days of fighting.[247] Later, Emmanuel Macron accused Turkey of sending Syrian jihadists to Nagorno-Karabakh. According to him, the Syrian fighters from jihadist groups have transited through Gaziantep (southeastern Turkey) to reach the Nagorno-Karabakh theatre of operations.[248]

Armenian mercenaries and Kurdish militia

Before the conflict, Turkish sources alleged that many YPG and PKK members from Iraq and Syria were transferred to Nagorno-Karabakh in order to train Armenian militias against Azerbaijan,[45] while on 30 September, Turkish sources alleged that about 300 PKK militants were transferred to Nagorno-Karabakh via Iran.[249] However, according to a Washington Post commentator, these claims may be doubted, due to Turkey having previously issued questionable statements regarding PKK and YPG activities.[250] A Jerusalem Post commentator wrote that the Daily Sabah's suggestions of PKK/YPG involvement in Karabakh were "meant to create the justification for Turkey to claim its 'security' is being threatened by the 'PKK' and that it can invade". The commentator noted that Turkey had used this same excuse of neutralizing "terrorists" to attack northern Iraq and Syria.[251]

On 28 September, the Azerbaijani MoD alleged that among the Armenian casualties were mercenaries of Armenian origin from Syria and from a variety of Middle East countries.[73] On 30 September, the Foreign Policy Advisor to the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan stated that the international community "should adequately respond to the use of terrorist forces by Armenia".[252] The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) stated that Armenian-born Syrian fighters were transported to Armenia to fight against Azerbaijan.[246][253]

Russia and Iran

During the conflict, Azerbaijani and Iranian media reported that Russian weaponry and military hardware were being transported to Armenia via Iran.[254] On 29 September, the Iranian Foreign Ministry denied these claims.[255] The next day, Azerbaijani government-affiliated media outlets shared footage reportedly showing the military equipment being transported.[256][257][258] Azerbaijani MP Sabir Rustamkhanli alleged that Iran was engaged in transporting weapons from various countries to Armenia.[259] Subsequently, in the Azerbaijani Parliament, Rustamkhanli suggested opening an Azerbaijani embassy in Israel.[260] The Chief of Staff of the President of Iran, Mahmoud Vaezi, in a phone call with the Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan, Shahin Mustafayev, denied the claims and stated that they were aimed at disrupting both countries' relations.[261] Iranian state-affiliated media stated that trucks depicted in the footage consisted of shipments of Kamaz trucks that the Armenian government had previously purchased from Russia.[262]

On 28 September, Russian media reported that Russian private military companies were ready to fight against Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh.[263] On 1 October, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, citing a Wagner Group source, claimed they were already in Karabakh and participating in hostilities.[264]

International reactions

Supranational organisations

President of the European Council Charles Michel called for a bilateral cessation of hostilities,[49] as has the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres,[49] followed by the United Nations Security Council condemning the conflict,[30] and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has also called for an end to hostilities.[265] Secretary General of the Organization of American States Luis Almagro demanded that Azerbaijan must cease hostilities.[266]

The Turkic Council reaffirmed its commitments "to the norms and principles of international law", reiterated the importance of a prompt resolution to the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, "on the basis of sovereignty, territorial integrity and inviolability of internationally recognized borders of the Republic of Azerbaijan", and reminded "that the related resolutions of the UN Security Council adopted in 1993 [UN Security Council Resolution 884] demand an immediate, unconditional and full withdrawal of the armed forces of Armenia from all occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan".[267]

Countries

Representatives of countries, including Albania,[268] Argentina,[269] Canada,[270] Chile,[271] China,[272] France,[273][274][275] Georgia,[276] Germany,[277] Greece,[278] India,[279][280] Iran,[281][282] Kazakhstan,[283] Moldova,[284][285] Poland,[286] Romania,[287][288] Russia,[289][274][275] Saudi Arabia,[290] the United Kingdom,[291] the United States,[292][274][275] Uruguay,[293] and Vatican City,[277] have called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

The governments of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey and partially recognised Northern Cyprus expressed support for Azerbaijan, blaming Armenia for violating the ceasefire.[277][294][295][296] Bosniak member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina Šefik Džaferović and the leader of the Party of Democratic Action, Bakir Izetbegović, voiced support for Azerbaijan, condemning Armenia and comparing the situation with the 1992-1995 Bosnian War.[297][298] Although Hungary said it supported the reduction of tensions, it has also announced it backed Azerbaijan's territorial integrity, declaring that "Armenian-majority Nagorno-Karabakh lies within the borders of Azerbaijan".[299][300]

Cyprus issued a statement condemning Azerbaijan for breaching the ceasefire and any escalating actions by the involved parties or by third parties, calling for a return to peaceful negotiation.[301] The internationally unrecognized self-proclaimed republic of Transnistria expressed its desire for a resolution of the conflict and sympathy for the "brotherly people of Artsakh".[302][303]

Turkey issued a statement on 1 October dismissing the joint demands from France, Russia, and the United States calling for a ceasefire.[304][305]

Armenian ambassador to the United States Varuzhan Nersesyan invited US intervention in the conflict, as did his Azerbaijani counterpart Elin Suleymanov.[306]

See also

Notes

^ a: Alleged by France,[248] the SOHR,[307][246] SNA fighters[308][309] and leaders,[310] journalists[311][312] and Armenia.[313] Denied by Azerbaijan,[314] Turkey[315] and other SNA leaders.[310]
^ b: Alleged by Armenia,[316][317] denied by Azerbaijan[318] and Turkey.[319]
^ c: Alleged by Azerbaijan[73][320] and the SOHR.[253]
^ e: Alleged reports,[254][256][257] denied by Iran.[255][261]
^ f: The SOHR reported 28 fighters were killed and 62 injured or missing,[247] while an unidentified SNA leader & the Jesr Press reported 30 fighters were killed.[321][322] The Guardian also confirmed the deaths of at least 10 Syrian fighters.[323]

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  323. ^ Syrian recruit describes role of foreign fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh
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