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====Jim DeMint of South Carolina====
====Jim DeMint of South Carolina====
{{main|United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2010}}
{{main|United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2010}}
First-term incumbent Sen. [[Jim DeMint]] (R) was elected over [[Inez Tenenbaum]] (D) with 54 percent of the vote in 2004.<ref name=nyt_south/>
First-term incumbent Sen. [[Jim DeMint]] (R) was elected over [[Inez Tenenbaum]] (D) with 54 percent of the vote in 2004.<ref name=nyt_south/> Democratic state Senator Brad Hutto is thinking of challenging DeMint in 2010 [http://www.thetandd.com/articles/2009/04/14/news/doc49e3f2e972df4971872076.txt].


Republican presidential nominee [[John McCain]] won South Carolina with 54% of the vote in [[United States presidential election, 2008|2008]]. <ref>http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/state/#val=SC</ref>
Republican presidential nominee [[John McCain]] won South Carolina with 54% of the vote in [[United States presidential election, 2008|2008]]. <ref>http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/state/#val=SC</ref>

Revision as of 01:34, 16 April 2009

United States Senate elections, 2010

← 2008 November 2, 2010 2012 →

Class III (34 of the 100) seats to the United States Senate and two mid-term vacancies from Class I and Class II
 
Leader Harry Reid Mitch McConnell
Party Democratic Republican
Leader's seat Nevada Kentucky
Last election 58 seats (including 2 independents)
Election contest in Minnesota is ongoing
41 seats

Senate Seats up for Election:
  Republican incumbent
  Retiring Republican
  Two Democratic incumbents
  Democratic incumbent
  Retiring Democrat
  No election

Incumbent Majority Leader

Harry Reid
Democratic



Elections to the United States Senate will be held on November 2, 2010, with at least 36 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate being contested. Thirty-four of these are to six-year terms, from January 3, 2011 to January 3, 2017. They will join Senate Class III, which traces its roots back to the senators who served full six-year terms from March 4, 1789 to March 3, 1795. Elections to the United States House of Representatives as well as some state and local elections will occur on the same date.

In addition to the 34 senators in Class III, there will be two special elections in 2010 to fill unexpired terms. One of these elections will be in Delaware to fill the last four years of the Class II seat previously held by Vice President Joe Biden. In 2008, Biden was simultaneously reelected to his seat in the U.S. Senate, a seat he had held since 1972. His resignation from the Senate seat resulted in Democratic then- Governor Ruth Ann Minner appointing Democrat Ted Kaufman to the seat until November 2010. Kaufman has since stated that he will not run for the unexpired term in 2010. This seat will again be up for election in 2014 for a full six-year term. The other special election will be held for New York's Class I seat previously held by by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Clinton was reelected to her second term in 2006 but was confirmed as Secretary of State in January 2009, which resulted in Democratic Governor David Paterson appointing Democratic U.S. Representative Kirsten Gillibrand to the seat until November 2010. Gillibrand has stated that she will run for the unexpired term in 2010. This seat will again be up for election in 2012 for a full six-year term.

The current composition of the U.S. Senate going into the 2010 elections is a result of the 2008 elections, in which Democrats gained eight seats. The U.S. Senate is currently composed of 56 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and two IndependentsJoe Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, both of whom caucus with the Democrats—and one outstanding seat in Minnesota. Of the seats expected to be up for election in 2010, 19 are held by Republicans and 17 by Democrats.

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chairman Robert Menendez of New Jersey has stated he does not expect any other Democratic retirements besides Ted Kaufman. [1]

Predictions

The following seats are considered safe in most current predictions:

Democratic: Arkansas, Delaware*, Indiana, Maryland, New York, Oregon, and Vermont.
Republican: Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah.
Source Safe Democratic Likely Democratic Leans Democratic Tossup Leans Republican Likely Republican Safe Republican
The Cook Political Report
(updates)
as of
March 26, 2009
Hawaii
New York*
California
Nevada
North Dakota
Washington
Wisconsin
Colorado Connecticut
Florida
Illinois
Kentucky
Missouri
New Hampshire
Ohio
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Kansas
Iowa
Texas[a]
CQ Politics
The Rothenberg Political Report
(updates)
as of
March 11, 2009
California
Hawaii
Illinois

Washington
Connecticut
North Dakota
New York*
Wisconsin
Colorado
Nevada
Florida
Kentucky
Missouri
New Hampshire
Ohio
Louisiana
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Kansas
Oklahoma
Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball
(updates)
as of February 19, 2009
California
Hawaii
North Dakota
Washington
Wisconsin
Connecticut Nevada
New York*
Colorado
Florida
Illinois
Kentucky
Louisiana
Missouri
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Arizona
Oklahoma
The Swing State Project
(ratings)
as of February 28, 2009
New York* Illinois
Nevada
Connecticut
Wisconsin
Colorado Florida
Kentucky
Missouri
New Hampshire
Ohio
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Lousiana
Texas
Arizona
Oklahoma
Campaign Diaries
(rankings)
as of February 2009
California
Connecticut
Hawaii
New York*
North Dakota
Washington
Wisconsin
Colorado
Illinois
Nevada
Florida
Kentucky
Missouri
New Hampshire
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Kansas
Louisiana
North Carolina
Arizona
Iowa
Oklahoma

a. ^ Assumption made for resignation of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) to run for Governor of Texas.

Overview of races

Retiring Democratic Senators

Ted Kaufman of Delaware

Democratic Senator Joe Biden was simultaneously reelected to the U.S. Senate and elected Vice President of the United States on November 4, 2008. Although Biden was sworn in for his seventh term on January 6, 2009,[2] he tendered his resignation effective January 15 in preparation for taking office as Vice President on January 20, 2009.

On November 24, 2008, former Democratic Governor Ruth Ann Minner announced Biden would be replaced by Democrat Ted Kaufman, his former chief of staff, sometime in January 2009. He was subsequently sworn in on January 16. A special election for the remainder of the term, which expires on January 3, 2015, will be held in 2010. Kaufman announced that he will not be a candidate in the special election.[3]

Christine O'Donnell, the Republican nominee who ran against and lost to Joe Biden in 2008, has announced that she will run again.[4] Former Republican Governor and U.S. Representative Mike Castle, who represents the state at large in the U.S. House, is also considering a run.[5]

On the Democratic side, Vice President Biden's son Beau, the current Attorney General of Delaware who is serving in active duty in Iraq, is considering a run and would be an early favorite to win the nomination for his father's seat.[6]

President Obama won Delaware with 62% of the vote in 2008. [7]

The seat will be up for election again in 2014 for a full six-year term.

Retiring Republican Senators

Kit Bond of Missouri

Four-term incumbent Republican Senator Kit Bond was reelected with 56 percent of the vote in 2004. He will be 71 years old in 2010. He has announced that he will not seek reelection,[8] creating a vacancy.

Republican U.S. Representative Roy Blunt, who represents Missouri's 7th congressional district (Southwest Missouri) in the U.S. House, has announced his candidacy.[9] Former State Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who sought but narrowly lost the Republican gubernatorial nomination in August 2008 to Kenny Hulshof, is also considering a run for the Republican nomination.[10]. Former U.S. Senator Jim Talent, who unseated in 2006 by Democrat Claire McCaskill, has announced that he will not run.[11][12]

On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (daughter of former U.S. Senator Jean Carnahan and former Governor Mel Carnahan) entered the race on February 3, 2009,[13] and is widely considered the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. She also enters the race as the early favorite.[14] In 2008, Carnahan won her second term as Secretary of State with near 1.7 million votes, the most votes ever cast for a single candidate in Missouri state history.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain narrowly defeated President Obama 49.43% to 49.29% in 2008. [15]

Sam Brownback of Kansas

Former 2008 Republican presidential candidate and two-term incumbent Sen. Sam Brownback has stated that he will not run for reelection in 2010 because of self-imposed term limits.[16]

On the Republican side, U.S. Representative Jerry Moran of Kansas's 1st congressional district has filed papers with the Federal Elections Commission (FEC) to run for the U.S. Senate seat.[17] Another Republican U.S. Representative, Todd Tiahrt of Kansas's 4th congressional district, has also announced his candidacy for the seat, setting up what is expected to be a bruising GOP primary.[18]

Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who was quite popular in Kansas, was seen as a potential candidate because of term limits preventing her from seeking another term as Governor.[19] Instead, Sebelius accepted the nomination by President Barack Obama to be Secretary of Health and Human Services, laying the possibility that she will run for the U.S. Senate to rest.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Kansas with 56.50% of the vote in 2008.

Judd Gregg of New Hampshire

Three-term Republican incumbent U.S. Senator Judd Gregg was reelected in 2004 with 66 percent of the vote.[20] Gregg had originally announced his intention to run for a fourth term, but was nominated to the position of United States Secretary of Commerce by President Barack Obama in early February 2009. However, Gregg withdrew his nomination on February 12, 2009 citing "irresolvable conflicts" over policy related to the Commerce Department.[21] Gregg has stated he will not run again.[22]

Democratic U.S. Representative Paul Hodes is running for this seat.[23] The state's other U.S. Representative, Carol Shea-Porter, also a Democrat, announced on Monday March 16, 2009, that she would not run for the seat. Her decision averted a primary battle against and has thus cleared the way for Hodes. [24]

On the Republican side, former U.S. Senator John Sununu, who was ousted in 2008 by former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen, is a potential candidate. [25]

President Obama won New Hampshire with 54% of the vote in 2008. [26]

Mel Martinez of Florida

Freshman Republican Senator Mel Martinez was elected in a very close race against Democrat Betty Castor in 2004 with just 49 percent of the vote.[27] Martinez is a former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the George W. Bush Administration. Martinez announced on December 2, 2008, that he would not seek a second term in the U.S. Senate.[28]

On the Republican side, the only announced candidate is former New Hampshire U.S. Senator Bob Smith.[29] Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist is seriously considering running for the seat, but will not announce his intentions on whether or not to run until May.[30] Crist currently has high approval ratings in the state among Republicans and Democrats and would be considered a formidable candidate.[31] Former Republican Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives Marco Rubio is preparing for a run at the seat, though hasn't yet made a formal announcement.[32] It was rumored that Rubio would run for Governor should Crist run for the U.S. Senate seat,[33] but in early March, Rubio filed the paperwork to run for the U.S. Senate and has been meeting with fundraisers and supporters throughout the state.[32] U.S. Congressman Vern Buchanan, who represents Florida's 13th congressional district,[34], former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives Allan Bense,[35], and State House Majority Leader Adam Hasner[36], are also potential Republican candidates.

Some other minor candidates who are running are Bob Coggins,[37], a former Shores city councilman, attorney Linda Vasquez Littlefield,[38] evangelist and consultant Gwendolyn McClellan,[37] and physician and 2008 congressional candidate Marion Thorpe[39].

On the Democratic side, U.S. Representative Kendrick Meek,[40] who represents Florida's 17th congressional district, State Senator Dan Gelber,[41] North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns,[42] Marine Corps veteran George Lovenguth,[43] pastor Tyrone Brown,[37] and Key West resident "Trinidad Joe" Allen[44] have all announced their candidacies for the seat. Mayor Pam Iorio of Tampa [45] and U.S. Representative Ron Klein[46] of Florida's 22nd congressional district are also considering running.

President Obama won Florida with 51% of the vote in 2008. . [47]

George Voinovich of Ohio

Two-term Republican incumbent George Voinovich was reelected with 64 percent of the vote in 2004. Voinovich, a former Mayor of Cleveland, Lieutenant Governor and Governor of Ohio, announced that he was going to retire rather than seek reelection to a third term [48][49] in 2010, when he will be 74 years old.

On the Republican side, former U.S. Representative, U.S. Trade Representative and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Rob Portman announced his candidacy and appears to be the consensus choice among Republicans.[50]

On the Democratic side, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher[51] and State Representative Tyrone Yates[52] have announced their candidacies. U.S. Representatives Zack Space of Ohio's 18th congressional district and Marcy Kaptur of Ohio's 9th congressional district are also possible candidates.[53][54]

President Obama won Ohio with 51.5% of the vote in 2008. [55]

Democratic incumbents

Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas

Two term Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln was reelected with 56 percent of the vote in 2004.[56] Lincoln will seek reelection and has already held a major fundraiser with Vice President Joe Biden. [57]

Former U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin is considering running against Lincoln as a Republican. [58] Other potential Republican candidates include former U.S. Treasury Official French Hill, investment banker Patrick Calhoun, and former Army officer Tom Cotton. [59]

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Arkansas with 59% of the vote in 2008. [60]

Barbara Boxer of California

Three-term Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer was reelected with 58 percent of the vote in 2004.[61] In February 2007, she announced that she would seek a fourth term in 2010, when she will be 70 years old.[62]

On the Republican side, state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore of California's 70th State Assembly district has announced his candidacy.[63] Telecommunications sales executive Al Ramirez is also forming an exploratory committee to challenge Boxer. [64] Former Hewlitt-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina is another possible candidate.[65]

Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has ruled out a run for U.S. Senate when his term as Governor expires.[66]

President Obama won California with 61% of the vote in 2008. [67]

Michael Bennet of Colorado

Following the resignation of first term Democratic Senator Ken Salazar to become President Barack Obama's Secretary of the Interior,[68] Democratic Governor Bill Ritter selected Michael Bennet, the former Superintendent of Denver Public Schools, to fill Salazar's seat for the remainder of his term.[69] Bennet has stated that he will run for a full term in 2010.[70]

Former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives Andrew Romanoff may challenge Bennet in the Democratic primary.[71]

On the Republican side, Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier has announced his candidacy [5]. In addition, former Congressman and 2006 gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez, Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck, radio talk-show host Dan Caplis, and Denver businessman Cleve Tidwell are potential candidates.[72][73]

President Obama won Colorado with 54% of the vote in 2008. [74]

Christopher Dodd of Connecticut

Five-term Democratic incumbent Christopher Dodd was reelected with 66% of the vote in 2004.[75] Dodd is running for reelection. [76] However, he has become politically weakened due to his failed 2008 presidential campaign,[77] his involvement in the AIG bonus payments controversy, his receiving a "sweetheart" loan from Countrywide Financial, and his involvement with fundraiser and investor Allen Stanford, who has been accused of running a Ponzi scheme.[1][78] Because of these allegations, Republicans [79] and Democratic leaders believe Dodd is vulnerable. [80] Democrat Roger Pearson, a former Greenwich first selectman, is a potential challenger for Dodd in the primary. [81]

On the Republican side, former Congressman Rob Simmons [82] and State Senator Sam Caligiuri[83] have both announced their candidacies. Former U.S. Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley is also considering a run.[84]

A March 2009 poll by Quinnipiac University showed Simmons narrowly ahead of Dodd by a margin of 43 percent to 42 percent. The same poll showed Dodd ahead of Caligiuri by a margin of 47 percent to 34 percent.[85] An April Quinnipiac poll showed Dodd losing to Simmons by 16 points and also losing to Caligiuri [86] However, a March 2009 Research 2000 poll showed Dodd leading Simmons 45% to 40%, and Dodd leading Caligiuri 51% to 30%. [87]

President Obama won Connecticut with 60.59% of the vote in 2008. [88]

Daniel Inouye of Hawaii

Eight-term incumbent Senator Daniel Inouye was reelected with 76% of the vote in 2004[89] and has announced that he will seek another term. He will be 86 years old in 2010.[90]

One potential challenger is incumbent Republican Governor Linda Lingle who had a 53% approval rating as of December 2008. [91]

President Obama won Hawaii with 72% of the vote in 2008. [92]

Roland Burris of Illinois

Former Democratic Attorney General of Illinois Roland Burris was appointed by then-Governor, Democrat Rod Blagojevich on December 30, 2008, to fill the U.S. Senate seat of Barack Obama who had resigned to become President. At the time, Blagojevich was facing corruption charges and members of the U.S. Senate declared that they wouldn't seat anyone the former Governor picked. It was argued that they had no legal authority to do so, and on January 12, 2009, the Democratic Senatorial Caucus announced that they would seat Burris. On February 17, 2009, the Sangamon County State's Attorney's Office in Illinois began investigating Burris for perjury. [93] It is unknown whether Burris intends to seek reelection. [94]

On the Democratic side, State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias has signaled that he will seek the Democratic nomination.[95] Also rumored to be considering a run is former U.S. Commerce Secretary William Daley, the brother of Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley. Democratic Congressman Danny K. Davis is a potential candidate, but his decision will be affected by whether Burris runs.[96]

The only declared Republican candidate so far is controversial journalist and perennial candidate Andy Martin. U.S. Representatives Mark Kirk and Peter Roskam are also considering running for the seat.[97]

President Obama won Illinois with 62% of the vote in 2008. [98]

Evan Bayh of Indiana

Two-term incumbent and former two-term Governor Evan Bayh (D) was reelected with 62 percent of the vote in 2004.

NRSCC chairman John Cornyn said he does not expect the Republicans to fundraise and compete against Bayh in 2010. [99]

The only declared Republican candidate so far is Don Bates, Jr., a branch manager for Wachovia Securities. [100] Tax attorney Dan Dumezich is considering a run. [99]

President Obama narrowly won Indiana with 50% of the vote to 49% for Republican presidential nominee John McCain in 2008. [101]

Barbara Mikulski of Maryland

Four-term incumbent Sen. Barbara Mikulski was reelected with 65 percent of the vote in 2004.

President Obama won Maryland with 62% of the vote in 2008. [102]

Harry Reid of Nevada

Four-term incumbent and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was reelected with 61 percent of the vote in 2004.[89] He will seek a fifth term in 2010, when he will be 71 years old.[103]

Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Krolicki is considering a possible run and is trying to lay the groundwork to mount a serious campaign against Reid.[104], but his status as a candidate has been uncertain since his indictment for felony charges. [105] Former Republican U.S. Representative Jon Porter, who was defeated by Democrat Dina Titus in Nevada's 3rd congressional district in 2008, may also run.[106] Republican former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle is also considering challenging Reid. [107]

President Obama won Nevada with 55% of the vote in 2008. [108]

Kirsten Gillibrand of New York

Incumbent Kirsten Gillibrand (D) was appointed by Governor David Paterson (D-New York) to fill this seat on January 23, 2009, after former Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton resigned to take up her appointment as U.S. Secretary of State. Gillibrand will serve until the seat is filled in a 2010 special election. The winner of the 2010 election may then decide whether or not to run for a full term in 2012. Gillibrand has filed paperwork to seek a full term. [109]

U.S. Representative Carolyn McCarthy (D) is considering challenging Gillibrand in the 2010 Democratic primary because of Gillibrand's support for gun rights.[110]

On the Republican side, U.S. Representative Peter T. King (R) is strongly considering a run.[111] Former Governor George Pataki (R) has met with GOP officials about a possible run, but officials say it is unlikely he will jump in.[112]

President Obama won New York with 63% of the vote in 2008. [113]

Chuck Schumer of New York

Two-term incumbent Sen. Chuck Schumer (D), the former chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) was reelected with 71 percent of the vote in 2004. He is unlikely to face strong competition.[114]

President Obama won New York with 63% of the vote in 2008. [115]

Byron Dorgan of North Dakota

Three-term incumbent Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) was reelected with 68 percent of the vote in 2004. He will be 68 years old in 2010.

Republicans are trying to get popular Governor John Hoeven (R) to run. [116]

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won North Dakota with 53% of the vote in 2008. [117]

Ron Wyden of Oregon

Two-term incumbent Sen. Ron Wyden (D) was reelected with 64 percent of the vote in 2004.

President Obama won Oregon with 57% of the vote in 2008. [118]

Patrick Leahy of Vermont

Six-term incumbent Sen. Patrick Leahy (D) was reelected with 71 percent of the vote in 2004.

Cannabis legal reform activist and perennial candidate Cris Ericson has announced her candidacy as an independent.[119]

President Obama won Vermont with 68% of the vote in 2008. [120]

Patty Murray of Washington

Three-term incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D) was reelected with 55 percent of the vote in 2004 over former U.S. Representative George Nethercutt (R) in 2004.[89]

So far, the only declared Republican candidates are truck driver and U.S. Army veteran Wayne Glover[121] and Sean Salazar[122], a chiropractor, U.S. Navy veteran and 2001 U.S. House candidate. U.S. Representative Dave Reichert (R) is also mentioned as a possible candidate[123].

President Obama won Washington with 58% of the vote in 2008. [124]

Russ Feingold of Wisconsin

Three-term incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold (D) was reelected with 55 percent of the vote in 2004. He will be 57 years old in 2010.

Feingold has announced his campaign staff for reelection and is expected to announce his formal election intentions soon. [125] He will more than likely win should he run for a fourth term in blue-leaning Wisconsin.

President Obama won Wisconsin with 56% of the vote in 2008. [126]

Republican incumbents

Richard Shelby of Alabama

Four-term incumbent Sen. Richard Shelby (R), a conservative former Democrat who switched parties in 1994 when Republicans took control of both the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, was reelected with 68 percent of the vote in 2004. Shelby's 2010 campaign committee had over $13 million on hand as of September 30, 2008, and will stand for reelection in 2010.[127]

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Alabama with 61% of the vote in 2008. [128]

Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

One-term incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) narrowly defeated former Governor Tony Knowles (D-Alaska) in 2004 with just 49 percent of the vote.[89]

Murkowski has announced that she will seek reelection and will have fundraising aid from Governor Sarah Palin. [129]

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Alaska with 60% of the vote in 2008. [130]

John McCain of Arizona

2008 Republican presidential nominee and four-term incumbent Sen. John McCain (R) was reelected with 77 percent of the vote in 2004. McCain has signaled his intention to run for a fifth term in 2010, when he will be 74 years old.[131]

U.S. Navy veteran and businessman Jim Deakin is challenging McCain in the Republican primary.[132] Former U.S. Representative J.D. Hayworth may challenge McCain in the primary as well.[133]

On the Democratic side, the only declared candidate so far is former Mayor Rudy Garcia (D-Bell Gardens, California).[134] Former Governor Janet Napolitano (D) was seen as a formidable candidate to challenge McCain in 2010 when she would be ineligible to run for a third term as Governor due to term limits. Instead, she opted to fill the appointment by President Barack Obama to be Secretary of Homeland Security.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Arizona with 54% of the vote in 2008. [135]

Johnny Isakson of Georgia

First-term incumbent Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) was elected with 58 percent of the vote in 2004. On May 8, 2008, Isakson announced that he would not run for Governor of Georgia and would instead run for reelection to the U.S. Senate. U.S. Representative Paul Broun (R) has expressed interest in running for the U.S. Senate in 2010, which could potentially lead to a primary challenge.

On the Democratic side, lawyer and party activist Jim Butler and U.S. Representative Jim Marshall have been talked about as possible challengers as well in 2010.[136]

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Georgia with 52% of the vote in 2008. [137]

Mike Crapo of Idaho

Two-term incumbent Sen. Mike Crapo (R) was reelected against only token write-in opposition with 99 percent of the vote in 2004 after Idaho Democrats failed to produce a candidate before the filing deadline.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Idaho with 61% of the vote in 2008. [138]

Chuck Grassley of Iowa

Five-term incumbent Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), former Chair and Ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, was reelected with 70 percent of the vote in 2004.

Democratic challenger Bob Krause is a former state legislator, Army veteran and transportation official. Krause has said that Grassley's more than half-century in public office is too long. "As a good farmer, Sen. Grassley must recognize that 51 years, or 58 years at the end of his term, is a long time to go without rotating crops," Krause told about 50 supporters in Des Moines.[139] Krause cited Grassley's support in 1999 for legislation that allowed banks and insurance companies to begin offering other investment products. "Please remember that Farmer Grassley was one that opened the barn door and let the cow out at AIG," Krause said.[140]

President Obama won Iowa with 54% of the vote in 2008. [141]

Jim Bunning of Kentucky

Baseball Hall of Famer and two-term Republican incumbent Sen. Jim Bunning was narrowly reelected with 51% of the vote in 2004 against his Democratic opponent, then-state Senator Daniel Mongiardo, after several of Bunning's controversial actions made the race close.[142] Bunning intends to run for reelection, but some Republicans are trying to talk Bunning out of running again.[143] Bunning has continued to make controversial comments in 2009, such as predicting that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg would be dead in nine months. [144] The Republican State Senate President David L. Williams is considering challenging Bunning in the primary and Secretary of State Trey Grayson and eye surgeon Rand Paul, son of U.S. Representative and 2008 presidential candidate Ron Paul, have said they would be interested in running if Bunning decided to retire.[145]

On the Democratic side two statewide elected Democrats have announced their candidacies: now- Lieutenant Governor Daniel Mongiardo, a practicing surgeon, announced that he will challenge Bunning again in 2010 and has received the endorsement of Democratic Governor Steve Beshear,[146]. The other candidate is Attorney General Jack Conway, who has the support of both Kentucky's Democratic Congressman, Ben Chandler and John Yarmuth, state Auditor Crit Luallen, and state House Speaker Greg Stumbo. [147] Former U.S. Customs Agent Darlene Fitzgerald Price has also announced her candidacy.[146]

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Kentucky with 57% of the vote in 2008. [148]

David Vitter of Louisiana

One-term incumbent Sen. David Vitter (R) was elected over former U.S. Representative Chris John (D) with 51 percent of the vote in 2004. While his election marked the first time that the state elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since Reconstruction, Vitter's reelection bid may become complicated by a prostitution scandal that was revealed in 2007.[149] However, Vitter has announced that he will seek reelection. [150] He may be challenged in the Republican primary by Secretary of State Jay Dardenne [6].

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Louisiana with 59% of the vote in 2008. [151]

Richard Burr of North Carolina

First-term incumbent Sen. Richard Burr (R) was elected over former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles (D) with just 52 percent of the vote in 2004.[152] President Obama narrowly won North Carolina in 2008 and during the same election, now-incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan ousted Elizabeth Dole by nine points, Democrats picked up a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in North Carolina's 8th congressional district and Lieutenant Governor Democrat Beverly Perdue was elected Governor.

The only declared Democratic candidate so far is Army veteran, graphic artist and 2006 and 2008 congressional candidate John Hendrix.[153] It is widely speculated, however, that Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) will enter the race to challenge Burr. Recent polls show Cooper narrowly defeating Burr in hypothetical matchups.

President Obama won North Carolina with 50% of the vote in 2008. [154]

Tom Coburn of Oklahoma

One-term incumbent Sen. Tom Coburn (R) was elected with 53 percent of the vote in 2004.[152] Coburn raised less than $20,000 in the fourth quarter of 2008 and reports less than $55,000 "cash on hand." This has caused some observers to speculate that he is not preparing to run for reelection in 2010.[152] In April, 2009, Coburn told the Tulsa world he has not decided whether to seek re-election, “I’m not playing games,” he said Tuesday. “I really haven’t decided.”[155] Instead, some believe he may retire and run for Governor of Oklahoma.

There has also been speculation that Governor Brad Henry (D) may challenge Coburn since he will be term-limited to run for Governor in 2010, although he has expressed no interest at the time.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Oklahoma with 66% of the vote in 2008. [156]

Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania

Five-term incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter (R) was reelected with 53 percent of the vote in 2004. He will seek a sixth term in 2010,[157] when he will be 80 years old. He was diagnosed with cancer in 2005 and again in 2008.

Specter has become increasingly unpopular among conservatives in the state and nationally for his vote in favor of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the economic stimulus bill) which could set up a tough reelection campaign for him in both the primary and general elections. Former U.S. Representative and President of the Club for Growth Pat Toomey (R), who came within 1.7 percent of defeating Specter in the 2004 GOP primary, is challenging Specter again in the primary.[158] Businessman Larry Murphy[159], who challenged Specter in the 1998 primary, and 1994 and 1998 Constitution Party gubernatorial candidate Peg Luksik[160] have both announced that they will also challenge Specter in the primary.

On the Democratic side, Pennsylvania State School Board Chairman, former president and CEO of the National Constitution Center and former Deputy Mayor of Philadelphia Joe Torsella (D) has announced that he will run.[161] U.S. Representative Allyson Schwartz is also mentioned as a potential Democratic candidate.

President Obama won Pennsylvania with 55% of the vote in 2008. [162]

Jim DeMint of South Carolina

First-term incumbent Sen. Jim DeMint (R) was elected over Inez Tenenbaum (D) with 54 percent of the vote in 2004.[152] Democratic state Senator Brad Hutto is thinking of challenging DeMint in 2010 [7].

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won South Carolina with 54% of the vote in 2008. [163]

John Thune of South Dakota

One-term incumbent Sen. John Thune (R) was narrowly elected over Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D) with 51 percent of the vote in 2004.[164] Thune will likely run for a second term in 2010.[165]

Some speculate that Democratic U.S. Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin may challenge Thune.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won South Dakota with 53% of the vote in 2008. [166]

Bob Bennett of Utah

Three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Bennett (R) was reelected with 69 percent of the vote in 2004. He will be 77 years old in 2010 and intends to run for reelection.[167]

It is very possible that Bennett, who was rated one of the ten most liberal Republicans in the Senate[168], will face a tougher primary election then he will a general election in safely Republican Utah. State Attorney General Mark Shurtleff (R)[169] , as are former Juab County prosecutor David Leavitt(R)[170] and former Gubenatorial counsel Mike Lee.

Republican presidential nominee John McCain won Utah with 63% of the vote in 2008. [171]

Senate contests in 2010

State Incumbent Party Status Other candidates Last Election Results[172]
AL Richard Shelby Republican Running for reelection[127] Richard Shelby (R) 67.55%
Wayne Sowell (D) 32.35%
AK Lisa Murkowski Republican Running for reelection[129] Lisa Murkowski (R) 48.58%
Tony Knowles (D) 45.55%
Marc Millican (I) 2.88%
Jerry Sanders (AKI) 1.23%
Jim Sykes (G) 0.99%
AZ John McCain Republican Running for reelection[131] Jim Deakin (R)[132]
Rudy Garcia (D)[134]
John McCain (R) 76.74%
Stuart Starky (D) 20.62%
Ernest Hancock (L) 2.64%
AR Blanche Lincoln Democratic Running for reelection[57] Blanche Lincoln (D) 55.90%
Jim Holt (R) 44.07%
CA Barbara Boxer Democratic Running for reelection[62] Chuck DeVore (R)[63]
Al Ramirez (R)[64]
Barbara Boxer (D) 57.71%
Bill Jones (R) 37.80%
Marsha J. Feinland (P&F) 2.02%
James P. Gray (L) 1.80%
CO Michael Bennet Democratic Running for election[70] Ken Salazar (D) 51.30%
Pete Coors (R) 46.53%
CT Chris Dodd Democratic Running for reelection [1] Sam Caligiuri (R)[83]
Rob Simmons (R)[82]
Chris Dodd (D) 66.35%
Jack Orchulli (R) 32.13%
DE1 Ted Kaufman Democratic Retiring[3] Christine O'Donnell (R)[4] Joe Biden (D) 64.69%
Christine O'Donnell (R) 35.31%
FL Mel Martinez Republican Retiring[28] Joe Allen (D)[44]
Tyrone Brown (D)[37]
Kevin Burns (D)[42]
Bob Coggins (R)[37]
Dan Gelber (D)[41]
Linda Vasquez Littlefield (R)[38]
George Lovenguth (D)[43]
Gwendolyn McClellan (R)[37]
Kendrick Meek (D)[40]
Marco Rubio (R)[32]
Bob Smith (R)[29]
Marion Thorpe (R)[39]
Mel Martinez (R) 49.43%
Betty Castor (D) 48.32%
Dennis F. Bradley (V) 2.24%
GA Johnny Isakson Republican Running for reelection[136] Johnny Isakson (R) 57.88%
Denise Majette (D) 39.98%
Allen Buckley (L) 2.14%
HI Daniel Inouye Democratic Running for reelection[90] Daniel Inouye (D) 75.51%
Campbell Cavasso (R) 20.99%
Jim Brewer (I) 2.23%
Lloyd Jeffrey Mallan (L) 1.27%
ID Mike Crapo Republican Mike Crapo (R) 99.18%
Write-ins 0.82%
IL Roland Burris Democratic Alexi Giannoulias (D)[95]
Andy Martin (R)
Barack Obama (D) 69.97%
Alan Keyes (R) 27.05%
Albert Franzen (I) 1.58%
Jerry Kohn (L) 1.35%
IN Evan Bayh Democratic Don Bates, Jr. (R)[100] Evan Bayh (D) 61.65%
Marvin Scott (R) 37.23%
Albert Barger (L) 1.13%
IA Chuck Grassley Republican Bob Krause (D)[140] Chuck Grassley (R) 70.18%
Arthur Small (D) 27.88%
Christy Ann Welty (L) 1.03%
KS Sam Brownback Republican Retiring[16] Jerry Moran (R)[17]
Todd Tiahrt (R)[18]
Sam Brownback (R) 69.16%
Lee Jones (D) 27.49%
Steven Rosile (L) 1.93%
George Cook (Ref) 1.42%
KY Jim Bunning Republican Running for reelection[143] Jack Conway (D)[173]
Darlene Fitzgerald Price (D)[146]
Daniel Mongiardo (D)[146]
Jim Bunning (R) 50.66%
Daniel Mongiardo (D) 49.34%
LA David Vitter Republican Running for reelection[150] David Vitter (R) 51.03%
Chris John (D) 29.34%
John Kennedy (D) 14.92%
Arthur Morrell (D) 2.56%
MD Barbara Mikulski Democratic Barbara Mikulski (D) 64.77%
E. J. Pipkin (R) 33.71%
Maria Allwine (G) 1.07%
MO Kit Bond Republican Retiring[8] Roy Blunt (R)[9]
Robin Carnahan (D)[13]
Kit Bond (R) 56.09%
Nancy Farmer (D) 42.80%
Other 1%
NV Harry Reid Democratic Running for reelection[103] Harry Reid (D) 61.08%
Richard Ziser (R) 35.14%
None 1.60%
Thomas L. Hurst (L) 1.18%
NH Judd Gregg Republican Likely retiring Paul Hodes (D)[23] Judd Gregg (R) 66.18%
Doris Haddock (D) 33.72%
NY Chuck Schumer Democratic Chuck Schumer (D) 71.16%
Howard Mills (R) 24.24%
Marilyn F. O'Grady (C) 3.30%
NY2 Kirsten Gillibrand Democratic Running for election[109] Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 67.00%
John Spencer (R) 31.01%
Howie Hawkins (G) 1.24%
NC Richard Burr Republican John Hendrix (D)[153] Richard Burr (R) 51.60%
Erskine Bowles (D) 47.02%
Tom Bailey (L) 1.38%
ND Byron Dorgan Democratic Byron Dorgan (D) 68.28%
Mike Liffrig (R) 31.72%
OH George Voinovich Republican Retiring[48] Jennifer Brunner (D)[51]
Lee Fisher (D)[51]
Rob Portman (R)[50]
Tyrone Yates (D)[52]
George Voinovich (R) 63.85%
Eric Fingerhut (D) 36.14%
OK Tom Coburn Republican Tom Coburn (R) 52.77%
Brad Carson (D) 41.24%
Sheila Bilyeu (I) 5.99%
OR Ron Wyden Democratic Ron Wyden (D) 63.39%
Al King (R) 31.75%
Teresa Kean (G) 2.42%
Dan Fitzgerald (L) 1.66%
PA Arlen Specter Republican Running for reelection[157] Peg Luksik (R)[160]
Larry Murphy (R)[159]
Pat Toomey (R)[158]
Joe Torsella (D)[161]
Arlen Specter (R) 52.62%
Joe Hoeffel (D) 41.99%
James N. Clymer (C) 3.96%
Betsy Summers (L) 1.43%
SC Jim DeMint Republican Jim DeMint (R) 53.67%
Inez Tenenbaum (D) 44.10%
SD John Thune Republican Running for reelection[165] John Thune (R) 50.58%
Tom Daschle (D) 49.42%
UT Bob Bennett Republican Running for reelection[167] Bob Bennett (R) 68.73%
Paul Van Dam (D) 28.40%
Gary R. Van Horn (C) 1.90%
VT Patrick Leahy Democratic Cris Ericson (I)[119] Patrick Leahy (D) 70.63%
Jack McMullen (R) 24.54%
Cris Ericson (M) 2.11%
Craig Hill (G) 1.30%
Keith Stern (I) 1.07%
WA Patty Murray Democratic Wayne Glover (R)[121]
Sean Salazar (R)[122]
Patty Murray (D) 54.98%
George Nethercutt (R) 42.74%
J. Mills (L) 1.21%
Mark B. Wilson (G) 1.08%
WI Russ Feingold Democratic Running for reelection[125] Russ Feingold (D) 55.35%
Tim Michels (R) 44.11%

1. Special election due to the resignation of Vice President Joe Biden
2. Special election due to the resignation of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton

See also

References

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