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| country = United States
| country = United States
| language = English
| language = English
| subject = [[Impeachment of Donald Trump]]<br />[[Malfeasance in office]]
| subject = [[Politics of the United States]]
| genre = Non-fiction
| genre = Non-fiction
| publisher = [[Dey Street Books]]
| publisher = [[Dey Street Books]]

Revision as of 20:42, 12 June 2017

The Case for Impeachment
Book cover
Book cover
AuthorAllan Lichtman
LanguageEnglish
SubjectPolitics of the United States
GenreNon-fiction
PublisherDey Street Books, William Collins
Publication date
April 18, 2017
Publication placeUnited States
Media typeHardcover
Pages304
ISBN978-0-06-269682-3
OCLC988564615
Preceded byThe Keys to the White House (1996) 
WebsiteOfficial website
[1][2][3]
This article is part of
a series about
Donald Trump
Business and personal

Endorsements

45th President of the United States
Tenure
Policies
Appointments
Presidential campaigns
Impeachments
Civil and criminal prosecutions
COVID-19 pandemic
Donald Trump's signature
Seal of the President of the United States

The Case for Impeachment is a non-fiction book by American University Distinguished Professor of History Allan Lichtman about arguments for the impeachment of Donald Trump. It was published April 18, 2017 by Dey Street Books. In September 2016, Lichtman used a model he developed writing his book The Keys to the White House (1996), to predict Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidential election. His model accurately stated the popular vote winner of all of the U.S. presidential elections from 1984 to 2012.[4] At the same time, he first predicted to The Washington Post that after ascending to the presidency, Trump would later be impeached from office. He developed this thesis into a set of multiple arguments for Trump's impeachment.[5][2]

Lichtman argues in the book that Trump could face impeachment for reasons including: complicity of conspiracy with foreign governments, crimes against humanity for neglecting global warming response by the U.S., and violation of the Foreign Emoluments Clause of the constitution, barring the president from taking personal monetary offerings from other governments. He provides the reader with an overview of Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections and links between Trump associates and Russian officials, asserting such ties could be used in efforts to impeach Donald Trump. He uses the Watergate scandal as the backdrop to compare and contrast Trump's reactions to criticism with Richard Nixon during Nixon's impeachment process. The author discusses Donald Trump sexual misconduct allegations, and delves into some of the legal affairs of Donald Trump stemming from them. Lichtman places the Donald Trump and Billy Bush recording within a larger context of public degradations of women.[1][2][3]

The Financial Times gave The Case for Impeachment a positive review, writing: "Lichtman's powerful book is a reminder that we are only at the start of the Trump investigations."[1] The Washington Post called it "striking to see the full argument unfold".[2] New York Journal of Books recommended it as a resource, "if you are a member of Congress trying to grapple with all that this administration has wrought."[3] CounterPunch characterized the work as "a brilliant analysis of every fraudulent act".[6] The Hill gave the author praise, writing: "Lichtman has written what may be the most important book of the year."[7] CBC News consulted law scholars that said Lichtman's impeachment prediction was unlikely, especially with a Republican controlled U.S. House of Representatives.[8]

Background

Further information: Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections

In September 2016, Lichtman used a prediction model he developed, and predicted Donald Trump would win the U.S. presidential election.[5][2] Lichtman had previously published the book The Keys to the White House (1996), about a system he created inspired by earthquake research, to predict the outcome of U.S. presidential elections.[9][10] His model accurately stated the popular vote winner of all of the U.S. presidential elections from 1984 to 2012.[4] After his 2016 election prediction was borne out as successful, President-elect Trump sent Lichtman a letter of thanks, writing: "Professor – Congrats – good call".[1][2][11]

On November 11, 2016, three days after Trump won the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Lichtman reiterated to The Washington Post another prediction he had made in September 2016: that Trump would be impeached as president.[12][13] Lichtman predicted this due to reasoning that a Republican controlled U.S. Congress would rather have a more stable Mike Pence elevated from Vice President of the United States to the presidency.[12] He explained to The Washington Post: "They don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence – an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican."[12] Lichtman elaborated on the strength of his impeachment assessment: "I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook."[12]

Contents summary

Further information: Links between Trump associates and Russian officials and Efforts to impeach Donald Trump

The Case for Impeachment sets forth multiple arguments for why President Trump's actions warrant impeachment from office. The author organizes the book into subsets of different grounds for impeachment, including complicity of conspiracy with foreign governments, and crimes against humanity for neglecting global warming response by the U.S. Lichtman explains to the reader the Foreign Emoluments Clause of the constitution, barring the president from taking personal monetary offerings from other governments. The author contends impeachment could be brought for actions by the president intended to financially benefit himself personally based on inside information about economic dealings. Lichtman observes the president has not garnered knowledge from a study of prior key events in U.S. politics: "A president who seems to have learned nothing from history is abusing and violating the public trust and setting the stage for a myriad of impeachable offenses."[1][2][3]

Lichtman compares and contrasts Trump's actions with the Impeachment of Richard Nixon stemming from the Watergate scandal. Discussion of prior impeachment proceedings for presidents Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton are dwarfed by Lichtman's comparisons between Trump and Richard Nixon. He writes that Trump's decisions threaten American values: "Even early in his presidency, Donald Trump exhibits the same tendencies that led Nixon to violate the most basic standards of morality and threaten the foundations of our democracy".[2] Lichtman argues that Trump's failure to learn from Nixon's negative example will harm his presidency, writing: "They also shared a compulsion to deflect blame, and they were riddled with insecurities." He criticizes what he documents as Trump's disregard for veracity: "Neither man allowed the law, the truth, the free press, or the potential for collateral damage to others to impede their personal agendas."[2] Lichtman notes Trump and Nixon's potential political success can be viewed as stifled by a perceived need for covert decision making devoid of critical viewpoints: "They obsessed over secrecy and thirsted for control without dissent."[1][2][3]

The author provides an overview of actions taken by Trump prior to his presidency that could also lead to his downfall, including possible violations of the Fair Housing Act, operations of Trump University, and donations or lack thereof related to the Donald J. Trump Foundation. With regards to the Foreign Emoluments Clause, the author grounds the reader in a basis for impeachment with discussion of Trump and Trump family debt, trademark negotiations in China, and financial transactions in the Philippines, arguing these obligations could allow foreign powers control over the Trump Administration.[2] In a proposal that the author acknowledges is unlikely, he submits the International Criminal Court could potentially prosecute the president for crimes against humanity related to reneging from agreements to combat climate change. Legally this would not have significant standing for impeachment on its own in the U.S., and the author writes that instead it could possibly provide the moral impetus for legislators to take further actions.[1][2][3]

The Case for Impeachment devotes a chapter to Donald Trump sexual misconduct allegations, and delves into discussion about some of the legal affairs of Donald Trump stemming from them. Lichtman describes Trump as driven by lust, and places the Donald Trump and Billy Bush recording within a larger context of public degradations of women. Events contained in the discussion of this topic are later contrasted with the fact that Trump garnered a majority of white women voters compared to his opponent Hillary Clinton, in spite of such details.[1][2][3]

Lichtman takes the reader through Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections and links between Trump associates and Russian officials, and writes that President Trump: "stands a chance of becoming the first American president charged with treason or the failure to report treason by agents and associates."[2] He likens the multiple investigations by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the House Intelligence Committee, and the Senate Intelligence Committee into 2016 U.S. election Russian intererence and links by Trump associates as a Sword of Damocles awaiting Trump. The author concludes these investigations could have disastrous impact for the president: "Neither Republicans nor Democrats in Congress will tolerate a compromised or treacherous president. Impeachment and trial will be quick and decisive."[1][2][3]

Composition and publication

Allan Lichtman

Lichtman was engaged in the writing process for the book in February 2017.[14][15] His representative from HarperCollins told Time that his thesis focused on: "not a question of if President Trump will be impeached, but a question of when".[14] During the writing process, Lichtman focused his efforts on sketching out a thesis for why Trump was vulnerable to being removed from office, due to concerns regarding links between Trump associates and Russian officials and possible conflicts of interest tied to his global financial dealings.[14] Whereas his September 2016 prediction of a Trump win in the U.S. presidential election was based on a tested prediction model, his basis for the impeachment thesis were of a more qualitative analysis.[2]

In an interview with GQ magazine, Lichtman elaborated his thought process for predicting a Trump impeachment: "it is based on a deep study of history, including Trump's parallels to his impeached predecessors; a study of the process of impeachment; a study of Trump's vulnerabilities".[11] He explained why he chose to write the book at this particular point in time, emphasizing it was to provide a guide for the public, and "because impeachment is a political process that occurs outside of the courts. It is responsive to the people, and if impeachment is going to take place, it will be because the American people demand it."[11] Lichtman said that due to multiple aspects of potential unlawful activities, "I believe he is more vulnerable than any early president in the history of the nation."[11]

Prior to conclusion of the work, Lichtman's book was already contracted by Del Rey Books with a publish date for April 18, 2017.[14] On March 3, 2017, the publisher William Collins gained the right to sell the work.[16] The contract was reported as a "significant deal", in order to be speedily released for April 2017.[16] William Collins was responsible for publication in the United Kingdom, with Del Rey Books publishing the work in the U.S.[16]

The Case for Impeachment was first published in hardcover format on April 18, 2017 in the U.S. by Dey Street Books.[17][18] It was released in e-book and audiobook formats the same year.[19][20] A subsequent edition was published the same year in London.[21]

Reception

The Washington Post journalist Carlos Lozada wrote in a review that upon reading the book, it was "striking to see the full argument unfold and realize that you don't have to be a zealot to imagine some version of it happening."[2] Lozada concluded: "Lichtman's case for impeachment is plausible, certainly, but it is far stronger as an argument for why Americans never should have elected Trump in the first place. Yet we did. So it may not be too soon for this book, after all. It may be too late."[2] Joy Lo Dico reviewed the book for the London Evening Standard wrote of Lichtman's writing style: "His argument races through 200 pages, with steam for more."[22] New York Journal of Books contributor Basil Smilke Jr. favorably reviewed the book, writing: "The Case for Impeachment is a good backdrop for conversations that will likely remain a part of our national dialogue for some time – or if you are a member of Congress trying to grapple with all that this administration has wrought."[3]

Writing for the Financial Times, Edward Luce gave the book a positive review, concluding: "Lichtman's powerful book is a reminder that we are only at the start of the Trump investigations. The US system takes a long time to gather speed. Once it does, it can be hard to stop."[1] In a review for CounterPunch, Charles R. Larson wrote: "What is so compelling about The Case for Impeachment is the plethora of acts by Donald Trump that in a sane world would have brought him down long before he even ran for president."[6] Larson recommended the book to potential consumers: "you need to read The Case for Impeachment, a brilliant analysis of every fraudulent act committed by the child in the White House."[6] Brent Budowsky reviewed the book for The Hill and praised the work, writing: "Lichtman has written what may be the most important book of the year."[7] He agreed with the premise that the book should start a wider debate in the public: "I am suggesting that Professor Lichtman is right: America should now begin a serious debate about how far is too for the leader of the land of the free and the home of the brave."[7]

CBC News interviewed academics who were skeptical of some of the book's arguments, and the likelihood for impeachment.[8] Constitutional law expert and resource for the U.S. House Judiciary Committee in the Impeachment of Bill Clinton, Susan Low Bloch, opined that impeachment was not as easy as thought: "You are undoing a national election, and I can't think of anything more serious politically than undoing an election. Whether you like Trump or not, he's now the president until he's done something impeachable – which he hasn't, so far as we know."[8] Harvard University law scholar on constitutional matters, Laurence Tribe, told CBC News that impeachment would be difficult with a Republican controlled House of Representatives.[8] Tribe said it could happen if there were "a scandal ... so earthshaking that even Republicans including Speaker Ryan will turn on their own before the mid-term elections."[8]

Aftermath

Further information: Dismissal of James Comey and Comey memos
File:8 June 2017 Comey Statement for the Record Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.pdf
June 8, 2017 Comey Statement for the Record Senate Select Committee on Intelligence

President Trump fired FBI director James Comey on May 9.[23][24][25] Lichtman criticized the president's actions, in interviews after Comey's firing;[24][26] he said Comey's firing gave fodder to the debate that Trump had engaged in obstruction of justice,[24] and he emphasized at that point in time he was not calling for impeachment itself, rather an impeachment investigation.[24] Lichtman told Newsweek:[24][26] "The only parallel [to the developments] is Watergate, and this is much more serious. What Trump is involved in is more serious because it involves a foreign power and the national security of the country."[24]

In an interview with Salon, Lichtman drew upon The Case for Impeachment and expanded upon his arguments in the wake of Comey's firing by Trump, citing this action by the president in addition to building circumstantial evidence of coordination between the Trump campaign and Russian intelligence during the 2016 U.S. election as rationale for impeachment.[25] Lichtman explained to Salon the importance of public opinion in changing the viewpoints of Richard Nixon's own Republican comrades towards impeachment in the U.S. Congress in 1974.[25] He observed in a comment to The National that only after the Saturday Night Massacre and the firing of special prosecutor Archibald Cox by President Nixon, in 1974, did public opinion shift for the first time to favor impeachment of Nixon, and Lichtman compared this event to Trump's firing of Comey.[26] He stressed to Salon how crucial the views of the citizenry is towards moving forward: "Impeachment will only really happen if the people want it."[25]

Lichtman elaborated to Salon in a follow-up piece, that even with a Republican controlled House of Representatives, impeachment was still possible.[27] He pointed out: "If Republicans come to believe that Donald Trump is a liability to their reelection ... If they feel that Donald Trump is putting in jeopardy their reelection and they'd be better off without him, they could turn against him."[27] He observed that all that would be required is for 10 percent of Republicans in the House of Representatives to join with the Democrats to move forward on impeachment.[27] Lichtman concluded: "It's getting harder and harder to defend this president as serious possibly impeachable transgressions pile up."[27]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Luce, Edward (April 20, 2017), "The case for impeaching Donald Trump", Financial Times, retrieved June 5, 2017
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r Lozada, Carlos (April 13, 2017), "The case for impeaching President Donald J. Trump. (Too soon?)", The Washington Post, retrieved June 5, 2017
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i Smilke Jr., Basil (April 17, 2017), "The Case for Impeachment", New York Journal of Books, retrieved June 5, 2017
  4. ^ a b "Keys to the White House". PollyVote. Retrieved April 29, 2017.
  5. ^ a b Stevenson, Peter W. (September 23, 2016). "Trump is headed for a win, says professor who has predicted 30 years of presidential outcomes correctly". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 29, 2017.
  6. ^ a b c Larson, Charles R. (May 19, 2017), "Review: Allan Lichtman's 'The Case for Impeachment'", CounterPunch, retrieved June 5, 2017
  7. ^ a b c Budowsky, Brent (April 20, 2017), "How far is too far? The Trump impeachment debate begins now.", The Hill, retrieved June 5, 2017
  8. ^ a b c d e Kwong, Matt (April 18, 2017), "Analysis – 'Prediction prof' who called Trump's win now predicts his impeachment, but scholars aren't convinced", CBC News, retrieved June 5, 2017
  9. ^ "What Earthquakes Can Teach Us About Elections". VPR News. 9 November 2012.
  10. ^ Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Lichtman, A. J. (1981). "Pattern Recognition Applied to Presidential Elections in the United States, 1860–1980: The Role of Integral Social, Economic, and Political Traits". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 78 (11): 7230–34. doi:10.1073/pnas.78.11.7230.
  11. ^ a b c d Willis, Jay (April 17, 2017), "The Trump Impeachment Is Coming Soon, Says Allan Lichtman", GQ magazine, retrieved June 5, 2017
  12. ^ a b c d Stevenson, Peter W. (November 11, 2016), "'Prediction professor' who called Trump's big win also made another forecast: Trump will be impeached", The Washington Post, retrieved June 5, 2017
  13. ^ Frank, T.A. (November 14, 2016), "Will Trump be impeached?", Vanity Fair, retrieved June 5, 2017
  14. ^ a b c d Reilly, Katie (February 21, 2017), "That Professor Who Predicted Donald Trump's Win Is Now Making the Case for Impeachment", Time, retrieved June 5, 2017
  15. ^ Kentish, Ben (February 22, 2017), "Professor who correctly predicted every US presidential election since 1984 is certain Donald Trump will be impeached", The Independent, retrieved June 5, 2017
  16. ^ a b c Onwuemezi, Natasha (March 3, 2017), "The case for Donald Trump's impeachment bought by William Collins", The Bookseller, retrieved June 5, 2017
  17. ^ Reilly, Katie (April 14, 2017), "How the Professor Who Predicted Trump's Win is Making the Case for Impeachment", Time, retrieved June 5, 2017
  18. ^ OCLC 988564615
  19. ^ OCLC 988217468
  20. ^ OCLC 985008578
  21. ^ OCLC 985462475
  22. ^ Dico, Joy Lo (April 20, 2017), "The Case for Impeachment by Allan J Lichtman – review", London Evening Standard, retrieved June 5, 2017
  23. ^ Shear, Michael D. (May 9, 2017). "F.B.I. Director James Comey Is Fired by Trump". The New York Times. Retrieved June 5, 2017.
  24. ^ a b c d e f Le Miere, Jason (May 13, 2017). "Trump 'could be impeached now' over Comey firing, historian who predicted his election says". Newsweek. Retrieved June 5, 2017.
  25. ^ a b c d Rozsa, Matthew (May 17, 2017). "Allan Lichtman predicted Donald Trump's victory – now he calls for his impeachment". Salon. Retrieved June 5, 2017.
  26. ^ a b c "Allan Lichtman on predicting Trump's impeachment", The National (video), Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, May 15, 2017, retrieved June 5, 2017
  27. ^ a b c d Rozsa, Matthew (May 24, 2017). "Listen: 'They probably are going to find impeachable offenses,' predicts professor on Donald Trump". Salon. Retrieved June 5, 2017.

Further reading

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Efforts to impeach Donald Trump.
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