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File:Rand Paul, official portrait, 112th Congress alternate (cropped).jpg|{{center|[[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]]<br/>'''[[Rand Paul]]'''<br/>from [[Kentucky]]}}
File:Rand Paul, official portrait, 112th Congress alternate (cropped).jpg|{{center|[[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]]<br/>'''[[Rand Paul]]'''<br/>from [[Kentucky]]}}
File:Official Portrait of Senator Rick Scott (cropped).jpg|{{center|[[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]]<br/>'''[[Rick Scott]]'''<br/>from [[Florida]]}}
File:Official Portrait of Senator Rick Scott (cropped).jpg|{{center|[[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]]<br/>'''[[Rick Scott]]'''<br/>from [[Florida]]}}
File:Mike Pence official portrait.jpg|{{center|Former [[Vice-President of the United States|Vice-President]]<br/>'''[[Mike Pence]]'''<br/>from [[Indiana]]}}
File:Donald Trump, Jr. 2019 (cropped).jpg|{{center|Businessman<br/>'''[[Donald Trump Jr.]]'''<br/>from [[New York (state)|New York]]}}
File:Donald Trump, Jr. 2019 (cropped).jpg|{{center|Businessman<br/>'''[[Donald Trump Jr.]]'''<br/>from [[New York (state)|New York]]}}
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Revision as of 12:38, 7 September 2021

Template:Import-blanktable

2024 United States presidential election
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
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The electoral map for the 2024 election, based on populations from the 2020 census
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



2024 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Third parties
Related races
← 2020 2024 2028 →

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are distributed according to the post-2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden has stated that he intends to run for reelection to a second term.[2]

In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

Background

Procedure

Further information: United States presidential election § Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[3] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.

Effects of the 2020 census

Main article: 2020 United States redistricting cycle

The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.[4][5] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States Census.[6]

The House of Representatives will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where Congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect, which helps other candidates of that party win elections.[7] In 2020, although its nominee Joe Biden won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not flip any state legislature chambers and in fact lost both New Hampshire legislative chambers and the Montana governorship. This will allow the Republican Party to have redistricting control of seats in New Hampshire,[8][9] potentially leading to gerrymandering that will stay in effect until the 2030 census, similar to the REDMAP project after the 2010 Census.[10][11][9]

Campaign issues

COVID-19 pandemic

Further information: COVID-19 pandemic in the United States and U.S. federal government response to the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, which, as of September 2021, has killed over 640,000 people in the United States (more than 1 in 520 Americans),[12] has had significant economic and societal effects which could pass on to the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility of governors in fighting the pandemic has been viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles.[13]

Candidates

Democratic Party

Democrat Joe Biden is the incumbent president, elected for his first term in office in the 2020 election, and has stated he intends to run for reelection for a second term in 2024. He is the oldest person to assume the office, at age 78, and would be 82 at the end of his first term and 86 at the end of his second term, if reelected.

Publicly expressed interest

As of September 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Other potential candidates

As of September 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months. Speculation about Vice President Kamala Harris has been discussed in the context of President Biden not seeking re-election,[15] whereas speculation about Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been discussed in the context of a challenge to either Harris or an incumbent Biden.[16]

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Republican Party

Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden in 2020 and was impeached by the House of Representatives for the second time. He was acquitted in his second impeachment trial in 2021 by the Senate, and is currently eligible to run again in the 2024 presidential election. If he decides to run, he would be seeking to become the second president, after Grover Cleveland, to serve two non-consecutive terms.[28][29] The last president to run after leaving office was Theodore Roosevelt, who came in second in the 1912 election as the candidate of the Progressive Party, although Herbert Hoover did briefly seek the Republican nomination at national conventions subsequent to his leaving office in 1933.

Publicly expressed interest

As of September 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Potential candidates

As of September 2021, the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Independents, other third parties, or party unknown

Publicly expressed interest

As of September 2021, individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

  • Kanye West, recording artist, businessman, and fashion designer; independent candidate for president in 2020[76][77]

Primary election polling

Democratic Party

Polls with Joe Biden
Nationwide polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden 		Other Undecided
Emerson College August 30 – Sep 1, 2021 450 (RV) ± 4.6% 60% 39% 1%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[b] – 57% 22%[c] 15%[d]
Statewide polling
Iowa caucuses
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden 		Other Undecided
Victory Insights April 8, 2021 600 (V) – 63% 11%[e] 26%
Polls without Joe Biden
Nationwide polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Stacey
Abrams 		Cory
Booker 		Pete
Buttigieg 		Andrew
Cuomo 		Kamala
Harris 		Amy
Klobuchar 		Michelle
Obama 		Beto
O'Rourke 		Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez 		Andrew
Yang 		Other Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 467 (LV) – 4% 5% 8% 4% 28% 2% 16% 2% 7% 4% 6%[f] 14%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 697 (A) – 4% – 6% – 44% – – – 4% – 18%[g] 24%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 463 (LV) – 5% 3% 4% 2% 31% 3% 19% 3% 5% 3% 6%[h] 16%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 459 (LV) – 4% 4% 6% 1% 35% 3% 16% 2% 7% 2% 9%[i] 13%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[j] – – – 9% – 41% 5% – 4% 8% 3% 29%[k] –
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 458 (LV) – – 4% 5% 2% 34% 4% 20% 2% 3% 4% 6%[l] 12%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 443 (LV) – – 4% 7% 1% 28% 3% 23% 2% 8% 4% 6%[m] 14%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
McLaughlin & Associates Dec 9–13, 2020 445 (LV) – – 3% 5% 5% 25% 2% 29% – 7% – 8%[n] 18%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 445 (LV) ± 3.1% – 2% 6% 5% 29% 2% 23% – 6% – 5%[o] 23%
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 461 (LV) – – 2% 8% 8% 18% – 25% – 6% – 6%[p] 28%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 390 (LV) ± 2.8% 6% 6% 16% 21% 19% 6% – 6% 9% 8% 3%[q] –
Statewide polling
Iowa caucuses
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Pete
Buttigieg 		Kamala
Harris 		John
Kerry 		Amy
Klobuchar 		Michelle
Obama 		Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez 		Bernie
Sanders 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Other Undecided
Victory Insights April 8, 2021 600 (V) – 15% 28% 7% 9% 12% 2% 2% 3% 5% 16%

Republican Party

Nationwide polling

Polls with Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Tucker
Carlson 		Ted
Cruz 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Josh
Hawley 		Larry
Hogan 		Mike
Pence 		Mike
Pompeo 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Tim
Scott 		Donald
Trump 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		Other Undecided
Emerson College August 30 – Sep 1, 2021 395 (RV) ± 4.9% – 2% 10% 7% 1% – 6% – 3% – – 67% – 5%[r] 1%
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 467 (LV) – – 3% 11% 4% – – 8% 1% 3% 3% 0% 54%[s] – 7%[t] 6%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 518 (A) – 2% – 13% 4% 0% – 3% – – 1% 1% 58% – 1%[u] 17%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates July 6–8, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% – 2% 19% 3% 0% 1% 8% 0% 3% 1% 1% 47%[s] - 2%[v] 13%
– – 31% – – – – – – – – 58%[s] – – 11%
John Bolton Super PAC July 8, 2021 1,000 (LV) – – 5% 13% 5% 0% – 6% – – 3% 0% 46% – 22% –
Echelon Insights[1] June 18–22, 2021 386 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 59%[s] – 35% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 444 (LV) – – 4% 9% 3% – – 8% 1% 3% 1% 1% 55%[s] – 8%[w] 7%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 24–26, 2021 378 (A) – – – – – – – – – – – – 65% – 19%[x] 16%
Quinnipiac May 18–24, 2021 ~290 (A)[y] – – – – – – – – – – – – 66% – 30%[z] 4%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 444 (LV) – 1% 3% 8% 5% – – 10% 1% 2% 0% 1% 57%[s] – 7%[aa] 7%
Echelon Insights[2] May 14–17, 2021 479 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 63%[s] – 31% 6%
Morning Consult/Politico May 14–17, 2021 782 (RV) ± 2% – 4% 8% 4% 0% 0% 13% 1% 4% 1% 2% 48% 7% 9%[ab] –
YouGov/Yahoo News May 11–13, 2021 348 (A) – – – – – – – – – – – – 68% – 22%[ac] 10%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[ad] – –[s] – – – – – – – – – – 62% – 27%[ae] 11%[af]
Echelon Insights[3] Apr 16–23, 2021 440 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 59%[s] – 35% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 441 (LV) – 1% 3% 7% 2% – – 10% 1% 3% 1% 1% 55%[s] – 8%[ag] 9%
PEM Management Corporation Apr 3–7, 2021 494 (LV) – – 7% 9% 9% – – 6% – – 3% – 44% – 1%[ah] –
Echelon Insights March 15–21, 2021 1,008 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 60%[s] – 30% 10%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill[4] Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 1,264 (LV) ± 2.7% – 3% 7% 6% 1% 1% 9% 1% 5% 2% 0% 51%[s] - 3%[ai] 12%
– – – – – – – – – – – 57%[aj] – 16%[ak] 27%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 448 (LV) – 1% 5% 4% 3% – – 8% – 3% 1% – 54%[s] – 9%[al] 10%
Harvard-Harris Feb 23–25, 2021 546 (RV) – – 5% – 7% 2% – 18% – – – 2% 52%[s] – 13%[am] –
Echelon Insights Feb 12–18, 2021 430 (RV) – – – – – – – – – – – – 55%[s] – 32% 14%
Morning Consult/Politico Feb 14–15, 2021 645 (RV) ± 4% – 4% – 6% 1% 1% 12% 2% 4% 2% 1% 54% 6% 10%[an] –
Echelon Insights Jan 20–26, 2021 – (RV)[ao] – – – – – – – – – – – – 48%[s] – 40% 11%
Léger Jan 15–17, 2021 1,007 (A)[ap] ± 3.09% – 6% 2% 7% 1% 6% 13% 2% 19% 3% 3% 29%[s] 2% 6%[aq] –
Ipsos/Axios Jan 11–13, 2021 334 (A) ± 5.8% – – – – – – – – – – – 57% – 41% 1%[ar]
Morning Consult/Politico Jan 8–11, 2021 702 (RV) – – 7% – 6% 1% 0% 18% 1% 5% 2% 1% 40% 6% 15%[as] –
McLaughlin & Associates Dec 9–13, 2020 442 (LV) – 3% 5% 1% 3% – – 11% 1% 4% 1% 1% 56% – 5%[at] 10%
Fox News Dec 6–9, 2020 ~ 413 (RV) ± 4.5% – – – – – – – – – – – 71% – 21%[au] 8%
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 442 (LV) ± 3.1% 1% 4% 2% 4% – – 9% 1% 4% 2% 1% 53%[s] – 6%[av] 15%
Morning Consult/Politico Nov 21–23, 2020 765 (RV) ± 2% – 4% – 4% 1% 0% 12% – 4% 2% 1% 53% 8% 11%[aw] –
HarrisX/The Hill Nov 17–19, 2020 599 (RV) ± 2.26% – – – – – – – – – – – 75% – 25% –
Seven Letter Insight Nov 10–19, 2020 ~555 (V)[ax] ± 2.5% 2% 6% – 7% 1% – 19% – – 4% 2% 35% 11% 4%[ay] –
Léger Nov 13–15, 2020 304 (A)[az] ± 3.09% 4% 7% – 4% – – 22% 2% 8% 5% – 45%[s] – 5%[ba] –
YouGov/Washington Examiner October 30, 2020 – (RV)[bb] – – – – – – – – – – – – 38% – 43%[bc] –
Polls without Donald Trump
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Tucker
Carlson 		Ted
Cruz 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Josh
Hawley 		Larry
Hogan 		Mike
Pence 		Mike
Pompeo 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Tim
Scott 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		Other Undecided
Emerson College August 30 – Sep 1, 2021 395 (RV) ± 4.9% – 13% 32% 10% 6% – 24% – 6% – – – 9%[bd] 0%
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 467 (LV) – – 9% 23% 4% – – 11% 2% 4% 4% 1% 12% 16%[be] 14%
Echelon Insights[5] July 19–23, 2021 421 (RV) – 1% 9% 32% 4% 1% 0%[bf] 17% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10% 6%[bg] 13%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates July 6–8, 2021 800 (RV) ± 3.5% – 7% 39% 4% 0% 1% 15% 1% 3% – 2% – 4%[bh] 24%
Echelon Insights[6] June 18–22, 2021 386 (RV) – 1% 6% 21% 6% 0%[bi] 0%[bj] 14% 0%[bk] 4% 3% 2% 7% 7%[bl] 26%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 444 (LV) – – 6% 24% 4% – – 19% 1% 5% 2% 1% 15% 13%[bm] 11%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 444 (LV) – 1% 12% 18% 5% – – 19% 2% 3% 1% 2% 13% 13%[bn] 12%
Echelon Insights[7] May 14–17, 2021 479 (RV) – 2% 9% 22% 5% 1% 0%[bo] 14% 1% 4% 1% 3% 6% 9%[bp] 19%
Trafalgar Group Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 – (LV)[bq] – – 15% 35% 6% 1% – 10% – 10% – – – 21%[br] –
Echelon Insights[8] Apr 16–23, 2021 440 (RV) – 2% 8% 20% 6% 1% 0%[bs] 16% 1% 4% 2% 0%[bt] 9% 3%[bu] 28%
McLaughlin & Associates Apr 8–13, 2021 441 (LV) – 3% 10% 14% 3% – – 19% 2% 3% 3% 1% 15% 13%[bv] 14%
Echelon Insights March 15–21, 2021 1,008 (RV) – 4% 5% 17% 4% – – 16% 4% 3% 2% – 3% 7%[bw] 35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill[9] Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 1,264 (LV) ± 2.7% – 13% 17% 8% 2% 1% 19% 4% 5% 4% 1% – 7%[bx] 20%
McLaughlin & Associates Feb 24–28, 2021 448 (LV) – 1% 9% 9% 5% – – 15% – 6% 2% – 21% 16%[by] 17%
RMG Research/Just the News Feb 25–27, 2021 363 (RV) – 8% 18% 21% 10% 2% – – 9% – – – – 33%[bz] –
Harvard-Harris Feb 23–25, 2021 546 (RV) – – 16% – 10% 6% – 41% – – – 7% – 19%[ca] –
Echelon Insights Feb 12–18, 2021 430 (RV) – 1% 10% 8% 6% ≤1% 1% 21% 1% 4% ≤1% ≤1% 8% 12%[cb] 26%
Echelon Insights Jan 20–26, 2021 – (RV)[cc] – 2% 8% 2% 9% 0% 0% 21% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10% 10%[cd] 30%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
Léger Jan 15–17, 2021 1,007 (A)[ce] ± 3.09% – 9% 3% 8% 2% 7% 22% 3% 20% 4% 3% 11% 8%[cf] –
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax Nov 21–23, 2020 442 (LV) ± 3.1% 1% 7% 2% 6% – – 20% 1% 5% 3% 2% 20% 13%[cg] 22%
Léger Nov 13–15, 2020 304 (A)[ch] ± 3.1% 6% 14% – 6% – – 44% 3% 11% 6% – – 7%[ci] –
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
McLaughlin & Associates Nov 2–3, 2020 449 (LV) – 2% 5% 2% 8% – – 30% – 5% 2% 1% 20% 5%[cj] 21%
Echelon Insights Aug 14–18, 2020 423 (LV) – 2% 4% – 7% 0% 1% 26% – – 5% 1% 12% 11%[ck] 29%
Léger Aug 4–7, 2020 309 (LV) ± 2.8% 7% 8% – 11% – – 31% 3% 9% 5% – 17% 9%[cl] –

Statewide polling

Georgia primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Chris
Christie 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage March 7–9, 2021 – (LV)[cm] – – – – – – – 70% 18%[cn] 12%
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 209 (LV) ± 7% 1% 5% 3% – 2% 3% 73%[s] 2% –
1% 15% 8% 36% 6% 3% –[co] 7% 24%
Iowa caucuses
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Kristi
Noem 		Mike
Pence 		Mike
Pompeo 		Mitt
Romney 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
Victory Insights Released March 14, 2021 – (LV)[cp] – 4% 4% 6% 2% 8% 2% 5% 61%[s] 5% 3%
16% 20% 10% 6% 19% 6% 5% –[co] 7% 6%
Maine primary
Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Marco
Rubio 		Ivanka
Trump 		Donald
Trump Jr. 		Other Undecided
January 3, 2023 Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
November 3, 2020 2020 presidential election
SurveyUSA / FairVote Jun 30 – July 6, 2020 604 (LV) ± 4.1% 12% 12% 30% 6% 7% 11% – 21%
North Carolina primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ted
Cruz 		Nikki
Haley 		Mike
Pence 		Mitt
Romney 		Marco
Rubio 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
January 20, 2021 Inauguration of Joe Biden
University of Nevada/BUSR Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 221 (RV) ± 7% 3% 6% – 3% 2% 76%[s] 5% 6%
9% 9% 48% 9% 3% –[co] 4% 18%
South Carolina primary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump 		Other Undecided
Trafalgar (R) Mar 25–29, 2021 1,014 (LV) ± 2.99% 64% 11%[cq] 25%[cr]

General election polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/Undecided
Emerson College August 30 – September 1, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.7% 46% 47% 7%
Rasmussen Reports August 16–17, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 43% 20%
YouGov/Yahoo News July 30 – August 2, 2021 1,552 (A) – 47% 37% 16%
PEM Management Corporation/John Bolton Super Pac July 8, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 43% 11%
YouGov/Yahoo News June 22–24, 2021 1,592 (A) – 47% 35% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 24–26, 2021 1,588 (A) – 46% 36% 18%
YouGov/Yahoo News May 11–13, 2021 1,561 (A) – 48% 36% 16%
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,106 (A) – 45% 28% 27%
PEM Management Corporation/John Bolton Super Pac Apr 3–7, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 42% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other/Undecided
Emerson College August 30 – September 1, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.7% 48% 36% 16%
Echelon Insights Apr 16–23, 2021 1,043 (RV) – 45% 28% 27%
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,105 (A) – 41% 25% 34%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source Date Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other/Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,107 (A) – 44% 19% 37%

Joe Biden vs. Ted Cruz

Poll source Date Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ted
Cruz
Republican 		Other/Undecided
Ipsos/Reuters April 12–16, 2021 1,105 (A) – 46% 24% 30%

Joe Biden vs. Mitt Romney

Poll source Date Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Mitt
Romney
Republican 		Other/Undecided
Emerson College August 30 – September 1, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.7% 42% 23% 35%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates July 29 – August 3, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 46% 49% 5%
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 1,001 (RV) – 47% 40% 13%
McLaughlin & Associates June 16–20, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 45% 49% 6%
McLaughlin & Associates May 12–18, 2021 1,000 (LV) – 45% 49% 6%

Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence

Poll source Date Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Mike
Pence
Republican 		Other/Undecided
Echelon Insights June 18–22, 2021 1,001 (RV) – 45% 36% 19%

Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other/Undecided
Echelon Insights Apr 16–23, 2021 1,043 (RV) – 43% 31% 26%

Timeline

Further information: Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
  3. ^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Biden" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Biden" with 22%; Would not vote with 6%
  4. ^ "Consider voting for Biden" with 8%; Undecided with 7%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 11%
  6. ^ John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand and Tim Kaine with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%
  7. ^ Bernie Sanders with 10%; Elizabeth Warren and Tim Kaine with 6%; Sherrod Brown with 2%
  8. ^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom, Deval Patrick and Ilhan Omar with 1%
  9. ^ Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom and Deval Patrick with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Ilhan Omar with 1%
  10. ^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 26%; Julian Castro with 2%; John Bel Edwards with 1%
  12. ^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
  13. ^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Gavin Newsom with 0%
  14. ^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Tim Kaine with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
  15. ^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
  16. ^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%
  17. ^ Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 5%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  19. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v Standard VI response
  20. ^ John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Candace Owens with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 0%
  21. ^ Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  22. ^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
  23. ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  24. ^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 19%
  25. ^ 22% of a full sample of 1,316 adults
  26. ^ "Do not want Trump to run" as opposed to "want Trump to run" with 30%
  27. ^ Candace Owens with 3%; John Kasich, Liz Cheney, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
  28. ^ Would not vote with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  29. ^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 22%
  30. ^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
  31. ^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Trump" with 24%; Would not vote with 3%
  32. ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 8%; Undecided with 4%
  33. ^ John Kasich with 3%; Candace Owens with 2%; Tom Cotton, Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
  34. ^ Kristi Noem with 1%
  35. ^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
  36. ^ On whether voters thought they'd support a Trump primary campaign if he ran
  37. ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 16%
  38. ^ Candace Owens with 3%; Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 2%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  39. ^ "Someone else" with 12%; Tom Cotton with 1%
  40. ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  41. ^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
  42. ^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[78]
  43. ^ Ben Sasse with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%; Ivanka Trump with 1%
  44. ^ Listed as "Skipped"
  45. ^ Would not vote with 6%; "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
  46. ^ John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  47. ^ "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%
  48. ^ John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  49. ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%
  50. ^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
  51. ^ Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with 1%
  52. ^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
  53. ^ John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
  54. ^ Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
  55. ^ Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
  56. ^ "Someone else" with 8%; Tom Cotton with 1%
  57. ^ Candace Owens with 6%; Ivanka Trump with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  58. ^ No voters
  59. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%
  60. ^ Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%; Chris Christie with 0%
  61. ^ No voters
  62. ^ No voters
  63. ^ No voters
  64. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 0%
  65. ^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; Candace Owens with 3%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  66. ^ Candace Owens with 5%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; John Kasich with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
  67. ^ No voters
  68. ^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%; Dave Portnoy with no voters
  69. ^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
  70. ^ "Someone else" with 19%; Kristi Noem and Ben Sasse with 1%
  71. ^ No voters
  72. ^ No voters
  73. ^ Kristi Noem and "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy and Rick Scott with 0%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with no voters
  74. ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich with 2%; Rick Scott and Kristi Noem with 1%
  75. ^ Greg Abbott with 2%; “Someone else,” Tom Cotton, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, and Dave Portnoy with 1% or less
  76. ^ Kristi Noem with 4%; Chris Christie, Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
  77. ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott with 2%; Rick Scott with 1%
  78. ^ "Other" with 21%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 4%; Greg Abbott and Devin Nunes with 2%
  79. ^ "Someone else" with 16%; Tom Cotton with 3%
  80. ^ Dan Crenshaw, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Rand Paul with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy, and Elise Stefanik with 1% or less
  81. ^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
  82. ^ Rand Paul with 3%; John Kasich and "Someone else" with 2%; Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton with 1%; Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
  83. ^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[78]
  84. ^ Ben Sasse and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%
  85. ^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem with 2%; Rick Scott with 0%
  86. ^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
  87. ^ Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%
  88. ^ John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
  89. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsay Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
  90. ^ Paul Ryan with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%
  91. ^ Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
  92. ^ "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 14%; would not vote with 4%
  93. ^ a b c If Donald Trump did not run
  94. ^ Not yet released
  95. ^ "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 9%; would not vote with 2%
  96. ^ "Would consider voting for Trump" with 20%; Undecided with 6%

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