John McCain 2008 presidential campaign

John McCain for President 2008
File:JohnMcCain08.gif
Campaign	U.S. presidential election, 2008
Candidate	John McCain U.S. Senator 1987–present
Affiliation	Republican Party
Status	Announced Apr. 25, 2007 (De facto nominee since the Potomac primaries)
Headquarters	Phoenix, Arizona
Key people	Rick Davis (Manager) Phil Gramm (co-chairman) Tom Loeffler (co-chairman) Tim Pawlenty (co-chairman)
Receipts	US$41.1 (2007-12-31)
Slogan	Best Prepared to Lead from Day One; Courageous Service, Experienced Leadership, Bold Solutions.
Website
www.johnmccain.com

John McCain, the senior United States Senator from Arizona, staged his second candidacy for the presidency of the United States for the 2008 presidential election. His candidacy was in the works for a number of years, was informally announced on February 28, 2007 and then formally announced on April 25, 2007.

Should McCain win in 2008, he would be the oldest person to assume the Presidency in history at initial ascension to office, being 72 years old and surpassing Ronald Reagan, who was 69 years old at his inauguration following the 1980 election. He has dismissed concerns about his age and past health concerns (malignant melanoma in 2000), stating in 2005 that his health was "excellent." In the event of his victory in 2008, he would also become the first President of the United States to be born in a U.S. territory (the Panama Canal Zone) outside of the current 50 states, and the first sitting U.S. Senator since John F. Kennedy to win the presidency.

McCain began the campaign as the nominal frontrunner among Republicans, with a strategy of appearing as the establishment, inevitable candidate; towards this end he made substantial overtures towards elements of the Republican base that had resisted his 2000 insurgency campaign. However, he soon fell behind in polls and fundraising; by July 2007 his campaign was forced to restructure its size and operations. The tide of Republican sentiment against immigration legislation he has sponsored also led to the erosion of his lead.

At the tail end of 2007, however, McCain began a resurgence, which was capped by his January 2008 wins in the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida primaries. This made him the front-runner for the Republican nomination. On Super Tuesday, McCain won both the majority of states and delegates in the Republican primaries, giving him a commanding lead toward the Republican nomination. By February 8, 2008, Rasmussen Reports gave McCain a 95.4 percent likelihood of winning the nomination.

Leading up to the announcement

Senator John McCain (R-AZ)

McCain's oft-cited strengths as a potential presidential candidate in 2008 included national name recognition, sponsorship of major lobbying and campaign finance reform initiatives and leadership in exposing the Abramoff scandal. He is well-known for his military service (including years as a tortured POW) and competing in the 2000 presidential campaign, when he won the New Hampshire primary. McCain also impressed many Republicans with his strong support for President Bush's re-election campaign in 2004, and his role in the confirmation of many of Bush's judicial nominees. A Time magazine poll dated January 2007 showed McCain deadlocked with possible Democratic opponent Hillary Rodham Clinton by at 46%; in the same poll McCain trailed Democrat Barack Obama 41% to 48%. An earlier Time Magazine poll indicated that more Americans were familiar with McCain than any of the other frontrunners, including Republican candidate and former Mayor of New York Rudy Giuliani, and Democratic hopeful Senator Barack Obama. During the 2006 election cycle, McCain attended 346 events and raised more than $10.5 million on behalf of Republican candidates. He also donated nearly $1.5 million to federal, state and county parties.

In May 2006, McCain gave the commencement address at Jerry Falwell's Liberty University. During his 2000 presidential bid, McCain had called Falwell an "agent of intolerance." With significant coverage during the campaign, McCain said that he would never back down from his earlier statement. His later appearance at Liberty University prompted questions about the McCain-Falwell relationship and a possible presidential run in 2008. McCain backtracked and stated that Falwell is no longer as divisive and the two have discussed their shared values. McCain delivered a similar address at The New School commencement in Madison Square Garden. McCain was booed, and several students and professors turned their backs or waved fliers reading "McCain does not speak for me." McCain's speech mentioned his unwavering support for the Iraq War and focused on hearing opposing viewpoints, listening to each other, and the relevance of opposition in a democracy. At the recent inauguration of Alabama governor Bob Riley, McCain mentioned the incumbent as a possible running mate in the 2008 election.

Thusly, McCain began the race as the presumptive frontrunner and the most experienced candidate from either major party

Announcement

John McCain officially announcing his 2008 run for President in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, April 25, 2007.

McCain informally announced his candidacy on the Wednesday, February 28, 2007, telecast of the Late Show With David Letterman.

He then announced his formal candidacy for the presidency of the United States and in turn, his intention to seek the nomination of the Republican Party for the 2008 presidential election, shortly after noon in Prescott Park on the waterfront of Portsmouth, New Hampshire on Wednesday, April 25, 2007. He then visited Manchester, New Hampshire, on the same day before starting a planned three day campaign rally in South Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and Arizona.

Campaign staff and policy team

He hired a board member of the Project for the New American Century, Randy Scheunemann, as his foreign-policy aide.

Neoconservative pundit Bill Kristol also serves as a foreign policy advisor; Kristol presently writes an op-ed column for The New York Times.

Political positions

Main article: Political positions of John McCain

Campaign developments 2007

Initial stages

Senator John McCain interviewed at Fort Sam Houston, Texas prior to the ribbon cutting ceremony of The Center for the Intrepid, a $50 million physical rehabilitation facility designed for servicemembers wounded in Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom. January 29, 2007.

By a few weeks prior to making his announcement on Letterman, McCain was already beginning to trail behind former Mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani in the polls.

In March 2007, with considerable press attention and in hopes of reigniting his efforts, McCain brought back the "Straight Talk Express" campaign bus that he had used to much positive effect in his outsider run in 2000. Like many candidates, McCain has taken to the internet in order to help boost his campaign; appealing to younger audiences by creating Facebook and MySpace pages, along with an account on Youtube.

Claims about Iraq safety

McCain supported the Iraq War troop surge of 2007 proposed by President George W. Bush. On March 28, 2007, McCain said that, "General Petraeus goes out [in Baghdad] almost every day in an unarmed humvee". On March 29, CNN's John Roberts reported, "I checked with General Petraeus’s people overnight and they said he never goes out in anything less than an up-armored humvee." On the same day, McCain also said that, "There are neighborhoods in Baghdad where you and I could walk through those neighborhoods, today... The US is beginning to succeed in Iraq." Barry McCaffrey, on the same day, issued a report saying, “... no Iraqi government official, coalition soldier, diplomat, reporter could walk the streets of Baghdad without heavily armed protection”.

On April 1, 2007, McCain and other lawmakers visited a Baghdad market and claimed that "things are better and there are encouraging signs". However, the visit was accompanied by enormous security measures, as McCain himself wore a bullet-proof vest, and was surrounded by more than 100 troops and escorted by attack helicopters. The day after McCain's visit, 21 workers and children from the market were killed in a suicide bombing.

Three policy speeches

In April 2007, McCain delivered three policy speeches. These focused on Iraq, the U.S. Economy, and on Energy.

McCain's April 11 speech on Iraq was delivered to the Virginia Military Institute (VMI) Corps of Cadets after his return from Iraq. His speech centered on his support for a new strategy in Iraq and his opposition to Democratic efforts towards troop withdrawal.The U.S. Senator repeated his criticism of the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq War on April 29, 2007 in Elko, Nevada, and stated that Donald Rumsfeld will be remembered as "one the worst secretaries of defense in history".

On April 16, McCain gave a speech on the U.S. Economy to the Economic Club of Memphis. In his speech, McCain criticized wasteful spending and reiterated his promise to make any sponsors of pork or earmarks "famous" when he becomes President.

The Senator's speech on Energy policy was given on April 23 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) at the Ronald Reagan Building & International Trade Center in Washington D.C. His speech connected energy independence with national security, climate change, and the environment. McCain proposed increasing ethanol imports, moving from exploration to production of plug-in electric vehicles, and better harnessing nuclear power much as Europe has managed to do.

Debates

Main article: Republican Party (United States) presidential debates, 2008

McCain participated in the first 2008 Republican Presidential Candidates Debate on May 3, 2007, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library along with the other Republican presidential contenders. The debate was sponsored by MSNBC, politico.com, The Reagan Library, and Nancy Reagan.

Missed votes in Senate

In May 2007, it was reported that McCain had missed 42 consecutive votes (five straight weeks) in the Senate while he was conducting his presidential campaign. From March to May, McCain only attended three floor votes in the Senate. According to Washington Post statistics, McCain missed more votes than any Senator with the exception of Tim Johnson, who has not returned to the Senate after suffering a brain hemorrhage in December 2006. McCain has missed 50.7% of votes of the 110th Congress during his campaign.

Immigration bill

As early as 2005, McCain conducted bipartisan efforts with fellow Senator Ted Kennedy to create a bill — the Secure America and Orderly Immigration Act — that would change America's immigration policy and provide a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants already in the country. Later McCain championed the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007.

In an interview in June 2007, potential candidate Fred Thompson criticized Reagan's immigration policy of 1986, saying: "Twelve million illegal immigrants later, we are now living in a nation that is beset by people who are suicidal maniacs and want to kill countless innocent men, women and children around the world. We're sitting here now with essentially open borders." McCain responded, "I travel around the country extensively and that's certainly not the impression I have. I have not detected a nation full of suicidal maniacs." A Thompson spokesman said he was not calling immigrants "suicidal maniacs" but rather saying that terrorists could infiltrate the borders.

Iowa Straw Poll

Main article: Straw polls for the Republican Party (United States) presidential nomination, 2008

In June 2007, McCain drew some criticism for dropping out of the August Iowa Straw Poll. Some Republican officials felt the move could be seen as "dissing Iowa." In response, a man in a chicken suit, known as the Iowa Chicken, began demonstrating at McCain's appearances in Iowa and carrying a sign reading "you balked at the straw poll." Despite this, McCain maintained that he was still planning on competing in the Iowa Caucus. Some political observers have opined that the Straw Poll results are bought by campaigns.

However, polls taken in June showed that McCain's Iowa support had dropped to the single digits, from the mid-20s to 6%.

Campaign downsizing and restructuring

McCain's second quarter 2007 fundraising results and campaign financials were poor. Both McCain supporters and political observers pointed to McCain's support for the Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007, very unpopular among the Republican base electorate, as a primary cause of his fundraising problems.

Large-scale campaign staff downsizing took place in early July, with 50 to 100 staffers let go and others taking pay cuts or switching to no pay. McCain's aides said the campaign was considering taking public matching funds, and would focus its efforts on the early primary and caucus states. McCain however said he was not considering dropping out of the race.

Fellow Senator, but Immigration Reform Act opponent, Tom Coburn wrote a piece for National Review praising McCain for showing great political courage in sticking behind the Act even though it was damaging his presidential hopes.

Campaign shakeups reached the top level on July 10, 2007, when campaign manager Terry Nelson and campaign chief strategist John Weaver both departed. Another senior aide and co-author of McCain's books, Mark Salter, reduced his role in the campaign as well. McCain's co-chair for his Florida campaign, State Rep Bob Allen, was arrested on July 11, 2007, on charges of sexual sollicitation (prostitution). In addition, on July 16, 2007, nine members of McCain's staff, including Brian Jones, McCain's communications director, and two deputies, Matt David and Danny Diaz, announced their resignations.

"Living off the Land"

Following the upheaval, the new McCain campaign put out a plan for how to continue on. Entitled "Living Off the Land: A Plan for Financial Viability", it called for expenses to be greatly cut and for McCain to take advantage of free media such as debates and sponsored events. McCain would focus on the early caucus and primary states, instead of trying to run a nationally-scoped effort, would try to "win debates and outperform other candidates," and thereby regain momentum and recapture the faith of potential donors.

McCain's strategy was hampered by several other events within the Republicans dominating the political discussion in the ensuing months: Fred Thompson's entry into the race in early September; the focus in debates over battles between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney; and the discussion over the impact of Romney's religion. Mike Huckabee's sudden surge from the second tier into near-frontrunner status dominated much of the news in November and December of 2007. Nevertheless, McCain persevered, riding his famous Straight Talk Express bus through New Hampshire and, as in the past, granting reporters and bloggers far more direct access than would other campaigns.

December 2007: Comeback

John McCain campaigning in Merrimack, New Hampshire on December 29, 2007. "Mac is back!" became a familiar chant in his appearances once his campaign fortunes improved.

In the final months before the caucuses and primaries began, McCain had still not nearly reclaimed his previous front-runner status. However, the Republican race was quite unsettled, with none of the top-tier candidates dominating the race and all of them possessing major vulnerabilities. Huckabee's ascendence was damaging to Romney, as they traded shots during the days leading up to the Iowa caucuses, which was damaging for both men. Romney and Huckabee put much of their early efforts into Iowa, making the caucus particularly crucial for them. Giuliani's campaign was suffering from conflicts regarding strategy, damaging revelations about his personal life and the federal indictment of longtime ally and friend Bernard Kerik. Thompson's campaign had not gained momentum after his late entry to the race and had been described as "lackluster". Through November, McCain had put little effort into Iowa, instead focusing on New Hampshire, where he had staged a big win in his 2000 campaign. By mid-December McCain had climbed back to second place in some New Hampshire polls, and could also benefit from a return of independents to the Republican primary. Political observers also saw McCain as the "second choice" of many voters, one who could benefit from the faltering of Romney or Giuliani in particular.

McCain's candidacy in New Hampshire was bolstered by a December 2 endorsement from the often-influential New Hampshire Union Leader. This was followed by an endorsement from The Boston Globe, which is circulated within New Hampshire, on December 15. He was endorsed by the smaller Portsmouth Herald on December 16, and by the Boston Herald on December 20. The Boston Herald endorsement prompted McCain to state in an ad that "Romney's hometown newspaper says the choice is clear: John McCain". These coincided with an unusual national candidate-level, cross-party endorsement of McCain by 2000 Democratic vice-presidential nominee Joe Lieberman on December 16; the McCain camp hoped that this would help him appeal to independent voters in New Hampshire. McCain also won the endorsement of the influential Des Moines Register in Iowa, which surprised even McCain due to his not having emphasized the state in his campaigning and his opposition to federal subsidies for ethanol, a favorite issue of Iowan farmers. By a few days before Christmas, there were multiple press reports of a "McCain surge", with poll numbers improving both in early states — including Iowa — and nationwide. The New Hampshire resurgence was further confirmed by Romney now focusing his campaign criticisms on McCain rather than Giuliani as before. By the time the Concord Monitor endorsed him on December 29, over twenty New Hampshire papers, large and small, had given him their nods. Some political analysts cautioned that even if the McCain campaign staged some surprise early showings or victories, it was still short on the money and ground organization necessary to exploit a breakthrough. Conservative columnist Robert Novak, though, predicted on December 27 that if McCain could win New Hampshire, he would be the favorite to "sweep through subsequent primaries despite meager finances and organization". Novak also stated that McCain is seen by Republican insiders as the "best bet" to win the nomination and the candidate most likely to defeat a Democrat in the November general election.

When the close proximity of the first contests to the holidays prompted many candidates to release Christmas videos — allowing them to continue presenting their messages, but in more seasonal settings — McCain chose one which told his Good Samaritan story of a POW camp guard in North Vietnam who undid his torture ropes for a night and then later drew a cross in the dirt for him on Christmas Day.

The December 27 assassination of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto drew responses from all of the major candidates. McCain, a longtime member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, called attention to his foreign policy experience, as well as his personal interaction with Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf. He also drew a contrast with his main Republican rivals, who do not have experience in foreign policy matters. Many observers saw McCain as the candidate most likely to benefit from a heightened focus on international events.

Caucuses and primaries 2008

Iowa

The first vote of the 2008 election season took place in the Iowa caucuses on January 3, 2008. McCain came in fourth place, with 13.1% of the vote. Mike Huckabee was the winner with 34%, followed by Mitt Romney at 25%. Fred Thompson finished slightly ahead of McCain with 13.4%, Ron Paul had 10% and Rudy Giuliani 3%. Because McCain, unlike Romney and Huckabee, had not focused on Iowa early, his campaign officials said they were satisfied with his placement. Many political observers considered Huckabee's easy win a blow to Romney - McCain's main rival in New Hampshire. Romney spent about five times as much as Huckabee on advertising in Iowa.

New Hampshire

The New Hampshire primaries came only five days after Iowa. McCain's rising New Hampshire poll numbers indicated that he could benefit from Romney's poor Iowa showing. McCain participated in a January 5 debate along with Romney, Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson and Paul. The debate particularly highlighted differences between McCain and Romney, as the two traded shots on the immigration issue. Polls in the days leading up to the vote showed McCain leading Romney in a tight race, and all candidates campaigned in the state in the days following the Iowa vote. McCain held over 100 of his signature town hall-style meetings in the state, in many cases repeating visits that he had made during his successful 2000 primary there. Despite McCain's resurgence, his campaign was still strapped for funds: top-level staff was working without paychecks, commercials were being prepared at cost, and event mailers were only a quarter of what he was able to send out in his 2000 campaign.

On January 8, 2008, McCain won the New Hampshire primary, gaining about 37 percent of the vote to Mitt Romney's 32 percent. During his victory remarks his supporters chanted, "Mac is back!" while McCain said, "When the pundits declared us finished, I told them, 'I'm going to New Hampshire where the voters don't let you make their decisions for them. I'm going to New Hampshire, and I'm going to tell people the truth.'"

Michigan

With different winners in Iowa and New Hampshire - and Mitt Romney taking the lower-profile Wyoming caucus - the January 19 Michigan primary loomed as an important battle. Polls after New Hampshire showed a tight race between McCain and Romney, with Huckabee a close third. Many saw Michigan as Romney's last chance for a campaign-saving win after disappointments in the first two races. Others said that a win in Michigan could cement McCain's status as the "front-runner" for the nomination. McCain's campaign garnered about $1 million in newly contributed funds immediately after the New Hampshire win, but still had $3.5 million in bank debt. He was not alone in feeling a financial pinch; the entire Republican field suffered from a lack of enthusiasm and lower donations than the Democratic candidates were getting, with by comparison Hillary Rodham Clinton getting $6 million in new funds immediately after her New Hampshire win.

Nevertheless, some polls showed McCain getting a significant national bounce from his New Hampshire win; the January 11 CNN nationwide poll had him at 34 percent support, a 21-point increase from where he had been just a month before, and a significant lead over follow-upers Huckabee (21 percent) and Giuliani (18 percent). As the Michigan race entered its final days, McCain gained some notoriety by sending out mailers there and in South Carolina attacking Romney's tax record and touting his own. A Romney campaign spokesman called the ad "as sloppy as it is factually incorrect", and FactCheck.org called the piece "misleading". McCain responded by saying, "It's not negative campaigning. I think it's what his record is." "It's a tough business," he added.

The dominant issue in Michigan was the state of the economy. Michigan had by far the nation's largest unemployment rate, at 7.4 percent, and was continuing to lose jobs from its historical manufacturing base. McCain offered a bit of his "straight talk", saying that "There are some jobs that aren't coming back to Michigan," and proposing federal job training plans and other remedies to compensate. Romney seized on McCain's statement as overly pessimistic and promoted instead his family heritage — "[I've] got the automobile industry in my blood veins" — as well as his being a Washington outsider who would go there and "turn Washington inside out."

In the end, McCain finished second in the primary behind Romney, gaining 30 percent of the vote to Romney's 39 percent.

South Carolina and Nevada

The campaign then moved towards the January 19 South Carolina primary, the state which effectively ended McCain's 2000 campaign for President. Unlike 2000, McCain had the support of much of the state Republican establishment, both in terms of endorsements and campaign staff support. Nevertheless a bit of 2000 surfaced when a group of unknown size called "Vietnam Veterans Against John McCain" set up a website and began sending crude mailers to media members alleging that McCain passed military information to the North Vietnamese during his time as a POW. McCain set up a Truth Squad to combat such attacks and emphasized that he was supported by 75 former POWs. Orson Swindle, who was a POW with McCain, called the flier a "vicious" fraud. "Nothing could be further from the truth," Swindle said. "I know because I was there. The truth is, the North Vietnamese offered John McCain early release, and he refused." After that, however, there was little in the way of dirty tricks during the rest of the campaign.

McCain won the South Carolina primary on January 19, gaining 33% of the vote compared to second-place finisher Mike Huckabee's 30%, winning groups he usually did well with, such as veterans and seniors, and doing well enough with other groups, such as evangelicals. In his victory remarks to supporters that evening, he said, "It took us awhile, but what's eight years among friends?," noting the reversal of fortune from his 2000 defeat there. Indeed, The New York Times described McCain's win as "exorcising the ghosts of the attack-filled primary here that derailed his presidential hopes eight years ago."

There had been a steady barrage of apocalyptic statements and predictions in the days before the South Carolina vote from movement conservative icons: Rush Limbaugh said that "I'm here to tell you, if either of these two guys [McCain or Huckabee] get the nomination, it's going to destroy the Republican Party. It's going to change it forever, be the end of it," while Tom DeLay said "McCain has done more to hurt the Republican Party than any elected official I know of." Other talk radio hosts also subjected McCain to criticism for being insufficiently conservative. Prominent conservative radio host Michael Medved said after McCain's win that talk radio was the "big loser" of the primary, adding that the medium has "unmistakably collapsed in terms of impact, influence and credibility because of its hysterical and one-dimensional involvement in the GOP nomination fight."

The Nevada caucus the same day drew less attention from Republican candidates, although the state had 31 delegates at stake compared to South Carolina's 24. McCain did not seriously compete in Nevada, and finished third with 13% of the vote, finishing far back of Mitt Romney and losing to Ron Paul as well.

Florida

The race then moved to the January 29 Florida primary. This would be a test for McCain among core Republican voters, as unlike New Hampshire and South Carolina, independents and Democrats would not be able to vote in the Republican primary. McCain, Giuliani and Romney were closely matched in pre-election polls, and the contest was seen as important to each campaign, as it was the last primary before Super Tuesday, when 41% of the total delegates were up for grabs. It was also the first time that Rudy Giuliani would seriously compete for delegates since a partial effort in New Hampshire, and the first primary after Fred Thompson withdrew his candidacy.

A January 24 debate at Florida Atlantic University was sedate, with none of the candidates attacking each other and economics the predominant theme. By the next day, however, McCain and Romney were going at each other, with McCain accusing Romney of having once advocated timetables for withdrawal from Iraq, and Romney saying that was untrue — an assessment shared by news organizations, which labeled McCain's charge as misleading — and demanding an apology. Certain statements dogged McCain. NBC News' Tim Russert during a debate raised a McCain quote in which McCain said, "I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated." Romney seized on these and declared that he, not McCain, was the right choice to lead the country during times of economic uncertainty. On the day before the vote, McCain slammed Romney for flip-flopping, while Romney released a "top ten list" of times McCain had attacked fellow Republicans. Both candidates used the ultimate Republican insult, calling each other a liberal. Overall, McCain was outspent by Romney on Florida television ads by a 3-to-1 margin. Conservative talk radio continued to hammer McCain, with Laura Ingraham saying she was "concerned about the mental stability of the McCain campaign" and Mark Levin continuing his practice of calling him "John McLame".

As the election neared, Giuliani slumped to a battle for third place with Huckabee, while McCain and Romney each had polls showing them in the lead. McCain garnered the late endorsements of Florida Senator and former Chairman of the Republican National Committee Mel Martinez and the highly popular Governor of Florida, Charlie Crist; Crist had reportedly pledged his support to Giuliani, and the Giuliani campaign was described as "visibly upset" by the McCain endorsement.

On January 29 McCain won the Florida primary and the state's 57 delegates, taking 36% of the total vote. Romney was second with 31% and Giuliani was third at 15%.

Super Tuesday

After Florida, the campaigns focused their attention on the 21 states voting on February 5, known as Super Tuesday. McCain was seen as the front-runner for the nomination heading in to this most important of primary dates. He had the lead in delegates to the national convention, and on January 30 he was officially endorsed by the withdrawing Giuliani.

The candidates sparred at a debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California on January 30, with Nancy Reagan present in the front row. The most heated exchange came as Romney accused McCain of dirty tricks in his misleading Florida statements about Romney having proposed an Iraq withdrawal timetable.

On January 31 McCain received the endorsement of Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger and began campaigning with him. This was a key endorsement, as California was one of the Super Tuesday states, and had more delegates than any other state. The same day, Governor Rick Perry of Texas threw his support behind McCain. Perry had previously been a Giuliani supporter, while Schwarzenegger had refrained from endorsing either McCain or Giuliani because he counted both men as friends. Meanwhile, Romney, still burning about McCain's misleading Iraq withdrawal timetable charge, compared McCain to disgraced former President Richard Nixon, saying that McCain's claim was “reminiscent of the Nixon era” and that “I don’t think I want to see our party go back to that kind of campaigning.”

McCain won his home state of Arizona, taking all 53 of the state's delegates and the largest of the Super Tuesday prizes, winning nearly all of California's 173 delegates. McCain also scored wins in Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York and Oklahoma.

The next day, McCain appeared confident that he would be the Republican nominee. Estimates showed him with 707 delegates - nearly 60% of the total needed to win the nomination. He began to appeal to disaffected conservatives, saying ""We share the common principles and values and ideas for the future of this country based on a fundamental conservative political philosophy, which has been my record." He also suggested that the right wing of the party "calm down a little bit" and begin to look for areas of agreement. Meanwhile, Romney advisers privately expressed doubts about whether their candidate could realistically hope to defeat McCain, and it was unclear if Romney would spend significant money on key February 12 contests in Virginia and Maryland.

Romney ends campaign

Both McCain and Romney addressed the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, DC on February 7. Romney used his speech to announce the end of his campaign, making McCain the presumptive Republican nominee. McCain spoke about an hour later, again appealing to right-wing uncertainty about his ideology. He focused on his opposition to abortion and gun control, as well as his support for lower taxes and free-market health care solutions. He told the CPAC audience that he arrived in Washington as "a foot soldier in the Reagan Revolution", and addressed the issue of illegal immigration - one of the major issues where conservatives have attacked McCain. He said that "it would be among my highest priorities to secure our borders first", before addressing other immigration laws.

More February contests

February 9 saw voting in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington state. Huckabee won an easy victory in Kansas, claiming all 36 of the state's delegates to the national convention. Only 14,016 votes were cast, and the McCain campaign expressed no concern over the lightly attended caucus. However, social conservatives had a strong presence in the Kansas Republican party, and the results served to highlight conservative dissatisfaction with the Senator. Louisiana was much closer, but Huckabee won there as well, beating McCain by less than one percentage point. McCain was declared the winner of the Washington caucuses, where 18 delegates were at stake. The February 19 primary would determine the other 19 delegates from the state. After the caucuses, Huckabee's campaign indicated that they would challenge the results.

Next up was the Potomac primary on February 12, with voting in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia. McCain swept the three races and took all 113 delegates which were at stake. The next day, the McCain camp released a memo calling a Huckabee win "mathematically impossible". McCain began to focus on the Democrats, particularly leading candidate Barack Obama, in anticipation of the general election.

The day after McCain's Potomac sweep, The Kansas City Star published a list of people who have been mentioned as possible McCain running mates, if he secures the nomination.

Romney endorsement

On February 14, Romney officially endorsed McCain and asked his approximately 280 delegates to support him at the national convention. If all or most of Romney's delegates backed McCain, it would give him nearly enough to win the nomination, with several large states still yet to vote. Despite these developments, Huckabee vowed to stay in the race. "I may get beat, but I’m not going to quit," he said.

Alleged romantic involvement with female lobbyist

On February 20 2008, The New York Times broke a story involving a possible romantic affair eight years earlier between McCain and lobbyist Vicki Iseman, both of whom deny the allegations. The relationship allegedly existed during McCain's 2000 presidential campaign. In separate interviews with The New York Times, two former associates of McCain said they warned him that he was risking his campaign and his political career. Both said McCain acknowledged behaving inappropriately and that he pledged to keep his distance from Iseman. The associates said they had become disillusioned with the senator, spoke independently of each other and provided details that were corroborated by others.

A McCain spokesperson characterized the story as a "hit and run smear campaign" and "gutter politics" and went on to say, "It is a shame that the New York Times has lowered its standards [...]"

Media coverage

An October 29, 2007, study by the Project for Excellence in Journalism and the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy found that through the first five months of 2007, McCain had received the most unfavorable media coverage of any of the major 2008 presidential candidates, with 12 percent of the stories having a favorable tone towards him, 48 percent having an unfavorable tone, and with the balance neutral. In terms of amount of coverage, McCain was the subject of 7 percent of all stories, second-most among Republicans and fourth-most overall. McCain's negative coverage mostly included pessimistic "horse race" stories that focused on his campaign's slippage in national polls and fundraising difficulty; it also included his support for the then-unpopular Iraq troop surge. McCain's campaign went through its near-total collapse soon after the window of this study; the press subsequently focused on a "McCain is dead" story line through the summer, which it was slow to change away from.

By the time the 2008 primary season began, McCain's media coverage had completely shifted. He was now viewed as a "comeback" story, always an attractive angle for reports. In addition, McCain returned to his long-standing practice of granting almost unlimited media access to him on this bus; this as well as the notion that he engages in "straight talk" free of political calculation gave him a positive personal sentiment in the press. Reflecting this feeling, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough joked of the media, "I think every last one of them would move to Massachusetts and marry John McCain if they could." Measurements by the University of Navarra indicated that throughout January 2008, McCain's global media attention surged from being a distant third among Republican candidates to being the equal of Romney and Huckabee. More recently the press has begun to question McCain's reputation as a straight talking maverick noting, among other things, his reversals of position a numbers of issues including campaign finance, immigration, and his recent support for the Bush administration's practice of torture via waterboarding.

Fundraising and finances

After first-quarter fundraising totals were released in early April, totals showed McCain's $13.6 million lagging behind rivals in the race. He spent more than $8 million in campaign funds during the first quarter, leaving him with $5.2 million in the bank and $1.8 million in debts. McCain exceeded 51,000 individual donors, more than rivals Giuliani, with 28,356, and Romney, with 36,538. However, McCain was worried at the high "burn rate" of money used during the first quarter and retooled his entire financial operations after the reports came back.

McCain's second-quarter fundraising totals were worse, with intake falling to $11.2 million and expenses continuing such that only $2 million cash was on hand. McCain's aides said the campaign was considering taking public matching funds There are some indications that although the campaign has $2 million cash on hand at the end of Q2, a 7-figure debt will make the monetary situation even more dire.

As of September 30, 2007, John McCain had raised $32,124,785 for his campaign for presidency. Private donors have given $30,183,761 toward his campaign, PACs have given $458,307, and $1,482,717 has come from other sources. 70% of the PAC contributions has come from business groups, 1% from labor groups, and the final 29% from ideological organizations. So far 95.6% of his finances have been disclosed, while 4.4% has not.

McCain was the first candidate to accept public financing from the presidential election campaign fund checkoff.

During the campaign's summer 2007 financial woes, it used a list of donors as collateral in order to get approval on a bank loan. This raised the question of whether the campaign's privacy policy was violated by such a use. A McCain spokesperson said it did not, since all of the campaign's assets were pledged as collateral at the time, not just the donor list.

By December 2007, McCain was using 32 lobbyists as fundraisers, more than any other candidate.

Endorsements

See also: Newspaper endorsements in the United States presidential primaries, 2008 § John McCain

As of April 25, 2007, The Hill's running tally of endorsements from members of Congress showed McCain in second place for the lead among Republican candidates with 26 endorsements (not including McCain himself), ahead of Rudy Giuliani but behind Mitt Romney. (See also Congressional endorsements for the 2008 presidential election.)

Opposing forces

Some parts of the conservative movement allege that McCain's past is not conservative and use this as their primary motive for opposing McCain's candidacy. Others have also claimed that McCain's past actions have hindered the progress of right-wing supporters, citing the McCain-Feingold Act, a campaign finance reform bill, which McCain co-authored with liberal Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), an immigration bill co-authored with Ted Kennedy, and voting against the Bush tax cuts.

• Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA)
  • Even though McCain campaigned heavily for Santorum in 2006, Santorum was soundly defeated in the 2006 Mid-Term elections by Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D-PA) by a landslide. Santorum claimed that McCain is not only erratic in his positions, but does not serve the best interests of conservatives.
• Club for Growth, an influential conservative group led by former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA)
  • This organization cites McCain's "maverick" status and his calling Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell "agents of intolerance" in 2000. The group also cites McCain's opposition to the Bush tax cuts in 2001 as a primary example of discrepancy in McCain's conservative self-stature.
• Dr. James Dobson, leader of Focus on the Family
  • Dobson has criticized McCain's opposition to passing a Constitutional Amendment banning same-sex marriage and also cites McCain's moderate family positions as detracting factors. Dobson said that McCain's campaign finance reform bill sought to prevent groups such as Focus on the Family from spreading their messages on pending legislation.

• The talk radio community, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Bill Cunninghan and Laura Ingraham have coalesced around endorsing an opponent, in an anti-McCain move.

External links

Presidential campaign

• Presidential Campaign Website
  • YouTube page
  • Facebook page
  • MySpace page
  • Spartan Internet Political Performance Index Weekly Ranking for John McCain
• John McCain's presidential campaign finance reports and data at the Federal Election Commission
• John McCain's presidential campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
• Sen. John McCain's Candidate Position Tracker from CFR.org

Grassroots supporters

• Blogs4McCain.com - Bloggers for McCain
• McCain Blogette - McCain's Daughter
• McCain Talk - Discussion Forums
• Hoosiers for McCain - Indiana Supporters

Documentaries, topic pages and databases

• NewsHour with Jim Lehrer - Vote 2008: John McCain
• New York Times — John McCain news stories and commentary
• John McCain 2008 presidential campaign at Curlie
• Select2008