BRIC: Difference between revisions
Foreign Policy BLAKE HOUNSHELL interview: BRIC to economically surpass "West" in 2018 Jim O'Neill (economist) http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/22/brics_a_short_history |
17 March 2011: United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973 all BRIC Abstained (with Germany). |
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Based on [[Forbes]] report released on March 2011, BRICs countries for the first time has surpassed Europe in count of billionaires by 301 billionaires or one billionaire ahead over Europe. It was the significant increase by 108 more billionaires than the previous years.<ref>BRICs becoming billionaire factory http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc9b6d80-4a8d-11e0-82ab-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1GCKIXd3V</ref> |
Based on [[Forbes]] report released on March 2011, BRICs countries for the first time has surpassed Europe in count of billionaires by 301 billionaires or one billionaire ahead over Europe. It was the significant increase by 108 more billionaires than the previous years.<ref>BRICs becoming billionaire factory http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc9b6d80-4a8d-11e0-82ab-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1GCKIXd3V</ref> |
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March 17th, 2011, all four BRIC countries (and [[Germany]]) abstained on [[United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973]]. |
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==The BRIC numbers== |
==The BRIC numbers== |
Revision as of 06:30, 19 March 2011
Brazil, Russia, India, China |
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![]() BRICs
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In economics, BRIC is a grouping acronym that refers to the countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are all deemed to be at a similar stage of newly advanced economic development. It is typically rendered as "the BRICs" or "the BRIC countries" or alternatively as the "Big Four".
The acronym was coined by Jim O'Neill in a 2001 paper entitled "Building Better Global Economic BRICs".[1][2][3] The acronym has come into widespread use as a symbol of the shift in global economic power away from the developed G7 economies towards the developing world.
According to a paper published in 2005, Mexico and South Korea were the only other countries comparable to the BRICs, but their economies were excluded initially because they were considered already more developed, as they were already members of the OECD.[4]
Several of the more developed of the N-11 countries, in particular Turkey, Mexico, Nigeria and Indonesia, are seen as the most likely contenders to join the BRICs. Some other developing countries that have not yet reached the N-11 economic level, such as South Africa, aspire to BRIC status. Economists at the Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit, held on 6–7 December 2010, dismissed the notion of South Africa joining BRIC.[5] Jim O'Neill told the summit that he was constantly being lobbied about BRIC status by various countries. He said that South Africa, at a population of under 50 million people, was just too small an economy to join the BRIC ranks.[6]
Goldman Sachs has argued that, since the four BRIC countries are developing rapidly, by 2050 their combined economies could eclipse the combined economies of the current richest countries of the world. These four countries, combined, currently account for more than a quarter of the world's land area and more than 40% of the world's population.[7][8]
Goldman Sachs did not argue that the BRICs would organize themselves into an economic bloc, or a formal trading association, as the European Union has done.[9] However, there are some indications that the "four BRIC countries have been seeking to form a 'political club' or 'alliance'", and thereby converting "their growing economic power into greater geopolitical clout".[10][11] On June 16, 2009, the leaders of the BRIC countries held their first summit in Yekaterinburg, and issued a declaration calling for the establishment of an equitable, democratic and multipolar world order. Since then they have met in Brasília in 2010 and will meet in China in 2011.[12]
The BRIC thesis
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/94/Mumbai_Downtown.jpg/225px-Mumbai_Downtown.jpg)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ad/Shanghaiviewpic1.jpg/225px-Shanghaiviewpic1.jpg)
Goldman Sachs argues that the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India and China is such that they could become among the four most dominant economies by the year 2050. The thesis was proposed by Jim O'Neill, global economist at Goldman Sachs.[13] These countries encompass over 25% of the world's land coverage and 40% of the world's population and hold a combined GDP (PPP) of 18.486 trillion dollars. On almost every scale, they would be the largest entity on the global stage. These four countries are among the biggest and fastest growing emerging markets.[citation needed]
However, it is not the intent of Goldman Sachs to argue that these four countries are a political alliance (such as the European Union) or any formal trading association, like ASEAN. Nevertheless, they have taken steps to increase their political cooperation, mainly as a way of influencing the United States position on major trade accords, or, through the implicit threat of political cooperation, as a way of extracting political concessions from the United States, such as the proposed nuclear cooperation with India.[citation needed]
(2003) Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050
Here's what Goldman Sachs had to say in its original report[14] (defended in the paper Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050) "Dreaming with BRICS: The Path to 2050," published in 2003:
- China's economy will surpass Germany in the next few years, the United States by 2041, and has already surpassed Japan's economy in end of 2010 (beginning of 2011).
- India's growth rate will be the highest—not China's -- and it will overtake Japan (today the world's third-largest economy) by 2032.
- BRICs’ currencies could appreciate by 300% over the next 50 years, providing a big tailwind for investors in BRIC assets.
- Taken together, the BRICs could be larger than the United States and the developed economies of Europe within 40 years.
- By 2025, BRICs will bring another 200 million people with incomes above $15,000 into the world's economy. That's equal to the combined populations of Germany, France and the United Kingdom.
However, Goldman Sachs has now become more bullish on the BRICs since it published its original report. The size of China's economy overtook Germany's economy in 2007, a year earlier than expected, and has over taken Japan's in July 2010.[15] Goldman Sachs now believes that the Chinese economy will overtake the United States by 2027. The latest prediction after Global Financial Crisis occur, November 2010: Standard Chartered Plc. says, China will overtake the US to become the world's largest economy by 2020. And then China's economy will be twice as large as the US by 2030 and account for 24 percent of global output, up from 9 percent in 2010.[16] And with India accounting for 10 of the 30 fastest-growing urban areas in the world and 700 million people moving to cities by 2050, its influence on the world economy will be bigger and quicker than was implied in 2003.
The BRIC thesis recognizes that Brazil, Russia, India and China[17] have changed their political systems to embrace global capitalism. Goldman Sachs predicts that China and India, respectively, will become the dominant global suppliers of manufactured goods and services, while Brazil and Russia will become similarly dominant as suppliers of raw materials. It should be noted that of the four countries, Brazil remains the only nation that has the capacity to continue all elements, meaning manufacturing, services, and resource supplying simultaneously. Cooperation is thus hypothesized to be a logical next step among the BRICs because Brazil and Russia together form the logical commodity suppliers to India and China. Thus, the BRICs have the potential to form a powerful economic bloc to the exclusion of the modern-day states currently of "Group of Eight" status. Brazil is dominant in soy and iron ore while Russia has enormous supplies of oil and natural gas. Goldman Sachs' thesis thus documents how commodities, work, technology, and companies have diffused outward from the United States across the world.
Following the end of the Cold War or even before, the governments comprising BRIC all initiated economic or political reforms to allow their countries to enter the world economy. In order to compete, these countries have simultaneously stressed education, foreign investment, domestic consumption, and domestic entrepreneurship.
(2004) Follow-up report
The Goldman Sachs global economics team released a follow-up report to its initial BRIC study in 2004.[18] The report states that in BRIC nations, the number of people with an annual income over a threshold of $3,000, will double in number within three years and reach 800 million people within a decade. This predicts a massive rise in the size of the middle class in these nations. In 2025, it is calculated that the number of people in BRIC nations earning over $15,000 may reach over 200 million. This indicates that a huge pickup in demand will not be restricted to basic goods but impact higher-priced goods as well. According to the report, first China and then a decade later India will begin to dominate the world economy.
Yet despite the balance of growth, swinging so decisively towards the BRIC economies, the average wealth level of individuals in the more advanced economies will continue to far outstrip the BRIC economic average. Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2025 the income per capita in the six most populous EU countries will exceed $35,000, whereas only about 500 million people in the BRIC economies will have similar income levels.
The report also highlights India's great inefficiency in energy use and mentions the dramatic under-representation of these economies in the global capital markets. The report also emphasizes the enormous populations that exist within the BRIC nations, which makes it relatively easy for their aggregate wealth to eclipse the G6, while per-capita income levels remain far below the norm of today's industrialized countries. This phenomenon, too, will affect world markets as multinational corporations will attempt to take advantage of the enormous potential markets in the BRICs by producing, for example, far cheaper automobiles and other manufactured goods affordable to the consumers within the BRICs in lieu of the luxury models that currently bring the most income to automobile manufacturers. India and China have already started making their presence felt in the service and manufacturing sector respectively in the global arena. Developed economies of the world have already taken serious note of this fact.
(2007) Second Follow-up report
This report compiled by lead authors Tushar Poddar and Eva Yi gives insight into "India's Rising Growth Potential". It reveals updated projection figures attributed to the rising growth trends in India over the last four years. Goldman Sachs assert that "India's influence on the world economy will be bigger and quicker than implied in our previously published BRICs research". They noted significant areas of research and development, and expansion that is happening in the country, which will lead to the prosperity of the growing middle-class.[19]
"India has 10 of the 30 fastest-growing urban areas in the world and, based on current trends, we estimate a massive 700 million people will move to cities by 2050. This will have significant implications for demand for urban infrastructure, real estate, and services."[19]
In the revised 2007 figures, based on increased and sustaining growth, more inflows into foreign direct investment, Goldman Sachs predicts that "from 2007 to 2020, India's GDP per capita in US$ terms will quadruple", and that the Indian economy will surpass the United States (in US$) by 2043.[19] It states that the four nations as a group will overtake the G7 in 2032.[19]
(2010) EM Equity in Two Decades: A Changing Landscape
According to a new report from Goldman Sachs, China might surpass the US in equity market capitalization terms by 2030 and become the single largest equity market in the world. By 2020, US GDP might be only slightly larger than China's GDP. Together, the four BRICs may account for 41% of the world's market capitalization by 2030, the report said.[20]
Due to contraction of Japan's GDP in Q4 2010 by 1.1 percent from the previous quarter, so China's GDP surpassed Japan's GDP by $5.88 trillion and $5.47 trillion respectively and make China as Number 2 in Economy.[21]
Based on Forbes report released on March 2011, BRICs countries for the first time has surpassed Europe in count of billionaires by 301 billionaires or one billionaire ahead over Europe. It was the significant increase by 108 more billionaires than the previous years.[22]
March 17th, 2011, all four BRIC countries (and Germany) abstained on United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973.
The BRIC numbers
The Economist publishes an annual table of social and economic national statistics in its Pocket World in Figures.[citation needed] Extrapolating the global rankings from their 2008 Edition for the BRIC countries and economies in relation to various categories provides an interesting touchstone in relation to the economic underpinnings of the BRIC thesis. It also illustrates how, despite their divergent economic bases, the economic indicators are remarkably similar in global rankings between the different economies. It also suggests that, while economic arguments can be made for linking Mexico into the BRIC thesis, the case for including South Korea looks considerably weaker. A Goldman Sachs paper published later in December 2005 explained why Mexico was not included in the original BRICs.[4]
Statistics
Categories | ![]() |
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Area | 5th | 1st | 7th | 3rd |
Population | 5th | 9th | 2nd | 1st |
Population growth rate | 107th | 221st | 90th | 156th |
Labour force | 5th | 7th | 2nd | 1st |
GDP (nominal) | 8th | 10th | 11th | 2nd |
GDP (PPP) | 7th | 6th | 4th | 2nd |
GDP (nominal) per capita | 55th | 54th | 137th | 95th |
GDP (PPP) per capita | 71st | 51st | 127th | 93rd |
GDP (real) growth rate | 15th | 88th | 7th | 5th |
Human Development Index | 73rd | 65th | 119th | 89th |
Exports | 18th | 11th | 16th | 1st |
Imports | 20th | 17th | 11th | 2nd |
Current account balance | 47th | 5th | 169th | 1st |
Received FDI | 11th | 12th | 29th | 5th |
Foreign exchange reserves | 7th | 3rd | 6th | 1st |
External debt | 28th | 24th | 26th | 23rd |
Public debt | 47th | 122nd | 29th | 98th |
Electricity consumption | 9th | 4th | 5th | 2nd |
Number of mobile phones | 5th | 4th | 2nd | 1st |
Number of internet users | 5th | 8th | 4th | 1st |
Motor vehicle production | 6th | 19th | 7th | 1st |
Military expenditures | 12th | 5th | 10th | 2nd |
Active troops | 14th | 5th | 3rd | 1st |
Rail network | 10th | 2nd | 4th | 3rd |
Road network | 4th | 8th | 3rd | 2nd |
BRIC in future
The list of 22 selected countries by nominal GDP from year 2006 to 2050: BRICs, G7 and Next Eleven. The bottom chart list the same 22 countries by nominal GDP per capita (the rankings for this bottom chart do not reflect the GDP per capita for all the world's countries). BRIC countries are highlighted and labeled in bold. Rank 2006: Number 1 to 15 are G20 countries. Five other countries of G20 not in the list are: Argentina, Australia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and European Union. Number 1 to 8 are G7 (top 7) countries, except China. Since 2027 China will surpass USA. Rank 2050: Top5 countries are: 1.China, 2.USA, 3.India, 4.Brazil, 5.Mexico (All 3 BRIC countries plus USA and Mexico). G7 countries at 2006 which not include in Top5 2050 countries are: Japan (8), Germany (10), United Kingdom (9), France (12), Italy (18) and Canada (16). So only USA from G7 2006 will be one of the Top 5 countries in 2050. Figures reflect data published in 2007.
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/79/Top_five_largest_economies_in_2050.jpg/800px-Top_five_largest_economies_in_2050.jpg)
Rank 2050 | Country | 2050 | 2045 | 2040 | 2035 | 2030 | 2025 | 2020 | 2015 | 2010 | 2006 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ![]() |
70,710 | 57,310 | 45,022 | 34,348 | 25,610 | 18,437 | 12,630 | 8,133 | 4,667 | 2,682 |
2 | ![]() |
38,514 | 33,904 | 29,823 | 26,097 | 22,817 | 20,087 | 17,978 | 16,194 | 14,535 | 13,245 |
3 | ![]() |
37,668 | 25,278 | 16,510 | 10,514 | 6,683 | 4,316 | 2,848 | 1,900 | 1,256 | 909 |
4 | ![]() |
11,366 | 8,740 | 6,631 | 4,963 | 3,720 | 2,831 | 2,194 | 1,720 | 1,346 | 1,064 |
5 | ![]() |
9,340 | 7,204 | 5,471 | 4,102 | 3,068 | 2,303 | 1,742 | 1,327 | 1,009 | 851 |
6 | ![]() |
8,580 | 7,420 | 6,320 | 5,265 | 4,265 | 3,341 | 2,554 | 1,900 | 1,371 | 982 |
7 | ![]() |
7,010 | 4,846 | 3,286 | 2,192 | 1,479 | 1,033 | 752 | 562 | 419 | 350 |
8 | ![]() |
6,677 | 6,300 | 6,042 | 5,886 | 5,814 | 5,570 | 5,224 | 4,861 | 4,604 | 4,336 |
9 | ![]() |
5,133 | 4,744 | 4,344 | 3,937 | 3,595 | 3,333 | 3,101 | 2,835 | 2,546 | 2,310 |
10 | ![]() |
5,024 | 4,714 | 4,388 | 4,048 | 3,761 | 3,631 | 3,519 | 3,326 | 3,083 | 2,851 |
11 | ![]() |
4,640 | 2,870 | 1,765 | 1,083 | 680 | 445 | 306 | 218 | 158 | 121 |
12 | ![]() |
4,592 | 4,227 | 3,892 | 3,567 | 3,306 | 3,055 | 2,815 | 2,577 | 2,366 | 2,194 |
13 | ![]() |
4,083 | 3,562 | 3,089 | 2,644 | 2,241 | 1,861 | 1,508 | 1,305 | 1,071 | 887 |
14 | ![]() |
3,943 | 3,033 | 2,300 | 1,716 | 1,279 | 965 | 740 | 572 | 440 | 390 |
15 | ![]() |
3,607 | 2,569 | 1,768 | 1,169 | 745 | 458 | 273 | 157 | 88 | 55 |
16 | ![]() |
3,149 | 2,849 | 2,569 | 2,302 | 2,061 | 1,856 | 1,700 | 1,549 | 1,389 | 1,260 |
17 | ![]() |
3,010 | 2,040 | 1,353 | 882 | 582 | 400 | 289 | 215 | 162 | 117 |
18 | ![]() |
2,950 | 2,737 | 2,559 | 2,444 | 2,391 | 2,326 | 2,444 | 2,072 | 1,914 | 1,809 |
19 | ![]() |
2,663 | 2,133 | 1,673 | 1,273 | 953 | 716 | 544 | 415 | 312 | 245 |
20 | ![]() |
2,602 | 1,728 | 1,124 | 718 | 467 | 318 | 229 | 171 | 129 | 101 |
21 | ![]() |
2,085 | 1,472 | 1,026 | 709 | 497 | 359 | 268 | 206 | 161 | 129 |
22 | ![]() |
1,466 | 1,001 | 676 | 451 | 304 | 210 | 150 | 110 | 81 | 63 |
In 2050 China will have a GDP US$ 70,710 (in US$ billions) that is more than Brazil, Russia and India together. But the BRIC not necessarily dependent on China to exist, because in 2050 Brazil, Russia and India together have a GDP US$ 57,614 will not have big difference, compared to the G7 which together have a GDP US$ 66,039. (China US$ 70,710), (G7 US$ 66,039), (Brazil, Russia, India US$ 57,614).
Groups | Flags | 2050 | 2045 | 2040 | 2035 | 2030 | 2025 | 2020 | 2015 | 2010 | 2006 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BRIC | ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
128,324 | 98,757 | 74,483 | 55,090 | 40,278 | 28,925 | 20,226 | 13,653 | 8,640 | 5,637 |
G7 | ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
66,039 | 59,475 | 53,617 | 48,281 | 43,745 | 39,858 | 36,781 | 33,414 | 30,437 | 28,005 |
For the table below: Rank 2006: Number 1 to 7 are G7 countries. Rank 2050: Only 5 of the G7 countries will be in the top 7 in 2050. All of G7 approximately double their GDP per Capita as at 2050 compare to 2006. But the highest growth is made by Vietnam which will make their GDP per Capita 51.10x (2006 to 2050). The second and third best growth are made by BRIC countries: India (25.5x) and China (24.32x). The other 2 BRIC countries also make significantly growth: Russia (11.37x) and Brazil (8.79x).
Rank 2050 | Country | 2050 | 2045 | 2040 | 2035 | 2030 | 2025 | 2020 | 2015 | 2010 | 2006 | Percent growth 2050/2006 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ![]() |
91,683 | 83,489 | 76,044 | 69,019 | 62,717 | 57,446 | 53,502 | 50,200 | 47,014 | 44,379 | 206% |
2 | ![]() |
90,294 | 75,979 | 63,924 | 53,449 | 44,602 | 36,813 | 29,868 | 26,012 | 21,602 | 18,161 | 497% |
3 | ![]() |
79,234 | 73,807 | 67,391 | 61,049 | 55,904 | 52,220 | 49,173 | 45,591 | 41,543 | 38,108 | 207% |
4 | ![]() |
78,435 | 65,708 | 54,221 | 43,800 | 34,368 | 26,061 | 19,311 | 13,971 | 9,833 | 6,909 | 1,137% |
5 | ![]() |
76,002 | 69,531 | 63,464 | 57,728 | 52,663 | 48,621 | 45,961 | 43,449 | 40,541 | 38,071 | 199% |
6 | ![]() |
75,253 | 68,252 | 62,136 | 56,562 | 52,327 | 48,429 | 44,811 | 41,332 | 38,380 | 36,045 | 208% |
7 | ![]() |
68,253 | 62,658 | 57,118 | 51,710 | 47,263 | 45,033 | 43,223 | 40,589 | 37,474 | 34,588 | 197% |
8 | ![]() |
66,846 | 60,492 | 55,756 | 52,345 | 49,975 | 46,419 | 42,385 | 38,650 | 36,194 | 34,021 | 196% |
9 | ![]() |
63,149 | 49,393 | 38,255 | 29,417 | 22,694 | 17,685 | 13,979 | 11,176 | 8,972 | 7,918 | 797% |
10 | ![]() |
58,545 | 52,760 | 48,070 | 44,948 | 43,195 | 41,358 | 38,990 | 35,908 | 32,948 | 31,123 | 188% |
11 | ![]() |
49,759 | 38,149 | 29,026 | 21,924 | 16,694 | 12,996 | 10,375 | 8,427 | 6,882 | 5,657 | 879% |
12 | ![]() |
49,650 | 39,719 | 30,951 | 23,511 | 17,522 | 12,688 | 8,829 | 5,837 | 3,463 | 2,041 | 2,432% |
13 | ![]() |
45,595 | 34,971 | 26,602 | 20,046 | 15,188 | 11,743 | 9,291 | 7,460 | 6,005 | 5,545 | 822% |
14 | ![]() |
33,472 | 23,932 | 16,623 | 11,148 | 7,245 | 4,583 | 2,834 | 1,707 | 1,001 | 655 | 5,110% |
15 | ![]() |
32,676 | 26,231 | 20,746 | 15,979 | 12,139 | 9,328 | 7,345 | 5,888 | 4,652 | 3,768 | 867% |
16 | ![]() |
22,395 | 15,642 | 10,784 | 7,365 | 5,123 | 3,711 | 2,813 | 2,197 | 1,724 | 1,508 | 1,485% |
17 | ![]() |
20,836 | 14,446 | 9,802 | 6,524 | 4,360 | 2,979 | 2,091 | 1,492 | 1,061 | 817 | 2,550% |
18 | ![]() |
20,500 | 14,025 | 9,443 | 6,287 | 4,287 | 3,080 | 2,352 | 1,880 | 1,531 | 1,281 | 1,600% |
19 | ![]() |
20,388 | 14,260 | 9,815 | 6,678 | 4,635 | 3,372 | 2,591 | 2,075 | 1,688 | 1,312 | 1,553% |
20 | ![]() |
13,014 | 8,934 | 6,117 | 4,191 | 2,944 | 2,161 | 1,665 | 1,332 | 1,087 | 919 | 1,416% |
21 | ![]() |
7,066 | 5,183 | 3,775 | 2,744 | 2,035 | 1,568 | 1,260 | 1,050 | 897 | 778 | 908% |
22 | ![]() |
5,235 | 3,767 | 2,698 | 1,917 | 1,384 | 1,027 | 790 | 627 | 510 | 427 | 1,225% |
At World Economic Forum 2011, there are 365 corporate executives from BRIC and other emerging nations out of 1000 participants. It is a record number of executives from emerging markets. Nomura Holdings Inc's co-head of global investment banking said that "It's a reflection of where economic power and influence is starting to move." The IMF estimates emerging markets may expand 6.5 percent in 2011, more than double the 2.5 percent rate for developed countries. BRIC's takeover made record by 22 percent of global deals or increase by 74 percent in one year and more than quadruple in the last five years.[24]
BRIC summits
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f4/1st_BRIC_summit_leaders.jpg/180px-1st_BRIC_summit_leaders.jpg)
The BRIC countries met for their first official summit on 16 June 2009, in Yekaterinburg, Russia,[25] with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Dmitry Medvedev, Manmohan Singh, and Hu Jintao, the respective leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and China, all attending.[26] The core focus of the summit was related to improving the current global economic situation and discussing how the four countries can better work together in the future, as well as a more general push to reform financial institutions.[25][26] There was also discussion surrounding how developing nations, such as those members of BRIC, could be better involved in global affairs in the future.[26] In the aftermath of the summit the BRIC nations suggested that there was a need for a new global reserve currency that is 'diversified, stable and predictable'.[27] The statement that was released stopped short of making a direct attack on the perceived 'dominance' of the US dollar, something which the Russians have been critical of; however, it still led to a fall in the value of the dollar against other major currencies.[28]
The foreign ministers of the BRIC countries had met previously on May 16, 2008 also in Yekaterinburg.[11]
One week prior to the summit, Brazil offered $10 billion to the International Monetary Fund.[29] It was the first time that the country had ever made such a loan.[29] Brazil had previously received loans from the IMF and this announcement was treated as a significant demonstration of how Brazil's economic position had changed.[29] China also announced plans to invest a total of $50.1 billion and Russia planned to invest $10 billion.[29]
South Africa will attend the summit in 2011 in Beijing, which may be renamed as BRICS, after receiving a formal invitation from China in 2010.[11]
Summit | Date | Host country | Host leader | Location held |
---|---|---|---|---|
1st | June 16, 2009 | ![]() |
Dmitry Medvedev | Yekaterinburg |
2nd | April 16, 2010 | ![]() |
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | Brasília |
3rd | Q1 2011[30] | ![]() |
Hu Jintao | Beijing |
The BRIC term
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/08/BRIC_leaders_in_2008.jpg/220px-BRIC_leaders_in_2008.jpg)
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/da/BRIC2010.jpg/220px-BRIC2010.jpg)
Various sources (see external links below) refer to a purported "original" BRIC agreement that predates the Goldman Sachs thesis. Some of these sources claim that President Vladimir Putin of Russia was the driving force behind this original cooperative coalition of developing BRIC countries. However, thus far, no text has been made public of any formal agreement to which all four BRIC states are signatories. This does not mean, however, that they have not reached a multitude of bilateral or even quadrilateral agreements. Evidence of agreements of this type are abundant and are available on the foreign ministry websites of each of the four countries. Trilateral agreements and frameworks made among the BRICs include the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (member states include Russia and China, observers include India) and the IBSA Trilateral Forum, which unites Brazil, India, and South Africa in annual dialogues. Also important to note is the G-20 coalition of developing states which includes all the BRICs.
Also, because of the popularity of the Goldman Sachs thesis "BRIC", this term has sometimes been extended whereby "BRICK"[31][32] (K for South Korea), "BRIMC"[33][34] (M for Mexico), "BRICA" (GCC Arab countries – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and the United Arab Emirates)[35] and "BRICET" (including Eastern Europe and Turkey)[36] have become more generic marketing terms to refer to these emerging markets.
In an August 2010 op-ed, Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs argued that Africa could be considered the next BRIC.[37] Analysts from rival banks have sought to move beyond the BRIC concept, by introducing their own groupings of emerging markets. Proposals include CIVETs (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa), the EAGLES (Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies) and the 7 per cent Club (which includes those countries which have averaged economic growth of at least 7 per cent a year).[38]
BRICS Term: South Africa's Inclusion
Pretoria sought BRIC membership over 2010 and the process for formal admission began as early as August 2010.[39] South Africa was officially admitted as a BRIC nation on December 24, 2010 after being invited by China and the other BRIC countries to join the group.[40] The capital “S” in BRICS stands for South Africa. President Jacob Zuma is expected to attend the BRICS summit in Beijing in April 2011 as a full member. South Africa stands at a unique position to influence African economic growth and investment. According to Jim O'neill of Goldman Sachs who originally coined the term, Africa's combined current gross domestic product is reasonably similar to that of Brazil and Russia, and slightly above that of India.[41] South Africa is a "gateway" to Southern Africa and Africa in general as the most developed African country.[41] China is South Africa’s largest trading partner, and India wants to increase commercial ties to Africa.[39] South Africa is also Africa’s largest economy, but as number 31 in global GDP economies it is far behind its new partners.[39]
Jim O'Neill expressed surprise when South Africa joined BRIC since South Africa's economy is a quarter of the size of Russia's (the least economically powerful BRIC nation).[42] He believed that the potential was there but did not anticipate inclusion of South Africa at this stage.[41] Martyn Davies, a South African emerging markets expert, argued that the decision to invite South Africa made little commercial sense but was politically astute given China's attempts to establish a foothold in Africa. Further, South Africa's inclusion in BRICS may translate to greater South African support for China in global fora.[42]
African credentials are important geopolitically, giving BRICS a four-continent breadth, influence and trade opportunities.[39] South Africa's addition is a deft political move that further enhances BRICS’ power and status.[39] In the original essay that coined the term, Goldman Sachs did not argue that the BRICs would organize themselves into an economic bloc, or a formal trading association which this move signifies.[43]
Marketing
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b8/Sao_Paulo_Stock_Exchange.jpg/220px-Sao_Paulo_Stock_Exchange.jpg)
The BRIC term is also used by companies who refer to the four named countries as key to their emerging markets strategies. By comparison the reduced acronym IC would not be attractive, although the term "Chindia" is often used. The BRIC's study specifically focuses on large countries, not necessarily the wealthiest or the most productive and was never intended to be an investment thesis. If investors read the Goldman's research carefully, and agreed with the conclusions, then they would gain exposure to Asian debt and equity markets rather than to Latin America. According to estimates provided by the USDA, the wealthiest regions outside of the G6 in 2015 will be Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore. Combined with China and India, these five economies are likely to be the world's five most influential economies outside of the G6.
On the other hand, when the "R" in BRIC is extended beyond Russia and is used as a loose term to include all of Eastern Europe as well, then the BRIC story becomes more compelling. At issue are the multiple serious problems which confront Russia (potentially unstable government, environmental degradation, critical lack of modern infrastructure, etc.[citation needed]), and the comparatively much lower growth rate seen in Brazil. However, Brazil's lower growth rate obscures the fact that the country is wealthier than China or India on a per-capita basis, has a more developed and global integrated financial system and has an economy potentially more diverse than the other BRICs due to its raw material and manufacturing potential. Many other Eastern European countries, such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and several others were able to continually sustain high economic growth rates and do not experience some of the problems that Russia experiences or experience them to a lesser extent. In terms of GDP per capita in 2008, Brazil ranked 64th, Russia 42nd, India 113th and China 89th. By comparison South Korea ranked 24th and Singapore 3rd.
Brazil's stock market, the Bovespa, has gone from approximately 9,000 in September 2002 to over 70,000 in May 2008. Government policies have favored investment (lowering interest rates), retiring foreign debt and expanding growth, and a reformulation of the tax system is being voted in the congress. The British author and researcher Mark Kobayashi-Hillary wrote a book in 2007 titled 'Building a Future with BRICs' for European publisher Springer Verlag that examines the growth of the BRICs region and its effect on global sourcing. Contributors to the book include Nandan Nilekani, and Shiv Nadar.
The BRIC and International Law
Brazilian lawyer and author Adler Martins has published a paper called "Contratos Internacionais entre os países do BRIC"[45] (International Agreements Among BRIC countries) which highlights the international conventions ratified by the BRIC countries, which allow them to maintain trade and investment activities safely within the group. Mr. Martin's study is being further developed by the Federal University of the Minas Gerais State, in Brazil.
BRICs and financial diversification
It has been argued that geographic diversification would eventually generate superior risk-adjusted returns for long-term global investors by reducing overall portfolio risk while capturing some of the higher rates of return offered by the emerging markets of Asia, Eastern Europe and Latin America.[46] By doing so, these institutional investors have contributed to the financial and economic development of key emerging nations such as Brazil, India, China, and Russia. For global investors, India and China constitute both large-scale production platforms and reservoirs of new consumers, whereas Russia is viewed essentially as an exporter of oil and commodities- Brazil and Latin America being somehow "in the middle".
Criticism
A criticism is that the BRIC projections are based on the assumptions that resources are limitless and endlessly available when needed. In reality, many important resources currently necessary to sustain economic growth, such as oil, natural gas, coal, other fossil fuels, and uranium might soon experience a peak in production before enough renewable energy can be developed and commercialized, which might result in slower economic growth than anticipated, thus throwing off the projections and their dates. The economic emergence of the BRICs will have unpredictable consequences for the global environment. Indeed, proponents of a set carrying capacity for the Earth may argue that, given current technology, there is a finite limit to how much the BRICs can develop before exceeding the ability of the global economy to supply.[47]
Academics and experts have suggested that China is in a league of its own compared to the other BRIC countries.[48] As David Rothkopf wrote in Foreign Policy, "Without China, the BRICs are just the BRI, a bland, soft cheese that is primarily known for the whine that goes with it. China is the muscle of the group and the Chinese know it. They have effective veto power over any BRIC initiatives because without them, who cares really? They are the one with the big reserves. They are the biggest potential market. They are the U.S. partner in the G2 (imagine the coverage a G2 meeting gets vs. a G8 meeting) and the E2 (no climate deal without them) and so on."[49] Deutsche Bank Research said in a report that "economically, financially and politically, China overshadows and will continue to overshadow the other BRICs." It added that China's economy is larger than that of the three other BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia and India) combined. Moreover, China's exports and its official forex reserve holdings are more than twice as large as those of the other BRICs combined.[50]
Another criticism is the understatement of GDP growth in China over the next 45 years; which predicts growth falling far below normal development. This contradicts the rapid economic growth that has already taken place in the country and the experience of countries like South Korea catching up with western GDP per capita, which China has been growing faster than in a similar period of development. In that perspective, some pension investment experts have argued that “China alone accounts for more than 70% of the combined GDP growth generated by the BRIC countries [from 1999 to 2010]: if there is a BRIC miracle it’s first and foremost a Chinese one”.[51]
There are many uncertainties and assumptions in the BRIC thesis that could mean that any or all of these four countries will not live up to their promise. [citation needed] The preeminence of China and India as major manufacturing countries with unrealised potential has been widely recognised, but some commentators state that China's and Russia's large-scale disregard for human rights and democracy could be a problem in the future. Human rights issues do not inform the foreign policies of these two countries to the same extent as they do the policies of other large states such as Japan, India, the EU states and the USA. There is also the possibility of conflict over Taiwan in the case of China and smaller democracies that lie in the vicinity of these two authoritarian giants will no doubt be affected by human rights issues being relegated to a lower global priority.
There is also the issue of population growth. The population of Russia is beginning to shrink fast. Brazil's and China's populations will begin to decline in several decades[citation needed], with their demographic windows closing in several decades as well. This may have implications for those countries' future, for there might be a decrease in the overall labor force and a negative change in the proportion of workers to retirees.
Brazil's economic potential has been anticipated for decades, but it had until recently consistently failed to achieve investor expectations.[citation needed] Only in recent years has the country established a framework of political, economic, and social policies that allowed it to resume consistent growth. The result has been solid and paced economic development that rival its early 70's "miracle years", as reflected in its expanding capital markets, lowest unemployment rates in decades, and consistent international trade surpluses - that led to the accumulation of reserves and liquidation of foreign debt (earning the country a coveted investment grade by the S&P and Fitch Ratings in 2008).
Finally, India's relations with its neighbor Pakistan have always been tense. In 1998, there was a nuclear standoff between Pakistan and India. [citation needed] Border conflicts with Pakistan, mostly over the longheld dispute over Kashmir, has further aggravated any economic ties. The BRIC countries have enormous populations of extremely impoverished people. This impedes progress by limiting government finances, increasing social unrest, and limiting potential domestic economic demand. Factors such as international conflict, civil unrest, unwise political policy, outbreaks of disease and terrorism are all factors that are difficult to predict and that could have an effect on the destiny of any country.
Other critics suggest that BRIC is nothing more than a neat acronym for the four largest emerging market economies,[citation needed] but in economic and political terms nothing else (apart from the fact that they are all big emerging markets) links the four. Two are manufacturing based economies and big importers (China and India), but two are huge exporters of natural resources (Brazil and Russia). The Economist, in its special report on Brazil, expressed the following view: "In some ways Brazil is the steadiest of the BRICs. Unlike China and Russia it is a full-blooded democracy; unlike India it has no serious disputes with its neighbors. It is the only BRIC without a nuclear bomb." The Heritage Foundation's "Economic Freedom Index", which measures factors such as protection of property rights and free trade ranks Brazil ("moderately free") above the other BRICs ("mostly unfree").[52] Henry Kissinger has stated that the BRIC nations have no hope of acting together as a coherent bloc in world affairs, and that any cooperation will be the result of forces acting on the individual nations.[citation needed]
It is also noticed that BRIC countries have undermined qualitative factors that is reflected in deterioration in Doing Business ranking 2010 and other several human indexes.[53]
In a not-so-subtle dig critical of the term as nothing more than a shorthand for emerging markets generally, critics have suggested a correlating term, CEMENT (Countries in Emerging Markets Excluded by New Terminology). Whilst they accept there has been spectacular growth of the BRIC economies, these gains have largely been the result of the strength of emerging markets generally, and that strength comes through having BRICs and CEMENT.[54]
Proposed Country Inclusions
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Mexico | South Korea |
Mexico and South Korea are currently the world's 13th and 15th largest by nominal GDP,[55] just behind the BRIC and G7 economies, while both are experiencing rapid GDP growth of 5% every year, a figure comparable to Brazil from the original BRICs. Jim O'Neill, expert from the same bank and creator of the economic thesis, stated that in 2001 when the paper was created, it did not consider Mexico, but today it has been included because the country is experiencing the same factors that the other countries first included present.[33][34] While South Korea was not originally included in the BRICs, recent solid economic growth led to Goldman Sachs proposing to add Mexico and South Korea to the BRICs, changing the acronym to BRIMCK, with Jim O'Neill pointing out that Korea "is better placed than most others to realize its potential due to its growth-supportive fundamentals.[56]
A Goldman Sachs paper published later in December 2005 explained why Mexico and South Korea weren't included in the original BRICs. According to the paper,[4] among the other countries they looked at, only Mexico and South Korea have the potential to rival the BRICs, but they are economies that they decided to exclude initially because they looked at them as already more developed. However, due to the popularity of the Goldman Sachs thesis, "BRIMC" and "BRICK" are becoming more generic marketing terms to refer to these six countries.
In their paper "BRICs and Beyond", Goldman Sachs stated that "Mexico, the four BRIC countries and South Korea should not be really thought of as emerging markets in the classical sense", adding that they are a "critical part of the modern globalised economy" and "just as central to its functioning as the current G7".[57]
The term is primarily used in the economic and financial spheres as well as in academia. Its usage has grown specially in the investment sector, where it is used to refer to the bonds emitted by these emerging markets governments.[58][59][60]
Primarily, along with the BRICs,[61] Goldman Sachs argues that the economic potential of Brazil, Russia, India, Mexico and China is such that they may become (with the USA) the six most dominant economies by the year 2050. Due to Mexico's rapidly advancing infrastructure, increasing middle class and rapidly declining poverty rates it is expected to have a higher GDP per capita than all but three European countries by 2050, this new found local wealth also contributes to the nation's economy by creating a large domestic consumer market which in turn creates more jobs.
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---|---|
GDP in USD | $9.340 trillion |
GDP per capita | $63,149 |
GDP growth (2015–2050) | 4.0% |
Total population | 142 million |
South Korea is by far the most highly developed country when compared to the BRICs and N-11s, with a GDP per capita higher than Italy and Spain and HDI higher than Switzerland, France and the United Kingdom. Yet, it has been achieving growth rates of 4-6%, a figure more than double that of other advanced economies. More importantly, it has a significantly higher Growth Environment Score (Goldman Sachs' way of measuring the long-term sustainability of growth) than all of the BRICs or N-11s.[57] Commentators such as William Pesek Jr. from Bloomberg argue that Korea is "Another 'BRIC' in Global Wall", suggesting that it stands out from the Next Eleven economies. By GDP (PPP), South Korea already overtook a G7 and G8 economy, Canada, in 2009. It then surpassed Spain in 2010 and at current speed, will take over Italy before 2018.[63] Economists from other investment firms argue that Korea will have a GDP per capita of over $96,000 by 2050, surpassing the United States and by far the wealthiest among the G7, BRIC and N-11 economies, suggesting that wealth is more important than size for bond investors, stating that Korea's credit rating will be rated AAA sooner than 2050.[64]
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---|---|---|---|
GDP in USD | $6.056 trillion | $4.073 trillion | $1.982 trillion |
GDP per capita | $86,000 | $96,000 | $70,000 |
GDP growth (2015–2050) | 4.8% | 3.9% | 11.4% |
Total population | 71 million | 42 million | 28 million |
United Korea
In September 2009, Goldman Sachs published its 188th Global Economics Paper named "A United Korea?" which highlighted in detail the potential economic power of a United Korea, which will surpass all current G7 countries except the United States, such as Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany and France within 30–40 years of reunification, estimating GDP to surpass $6 trillion by 2050.[66] The young, skilled labor and large amount of natural resources from the North combined with advanced technology, infrastructure and large amount of capital in the South, as well as Korea's strategic location connecting three economic powers, is likely going to create an economy larger than the bulk of the G7. According to some opinions, a reunited Korea could occur before 2050,[66] or even between 2010 and 2020.[67] If it occurred, Korean reunification would immediately raise the country's population to over 70 million.[68]
See also
- Potential superpower
- Emerging markets
- Next Eleven
- Asian Union
- North American Union
- CIVETS
- G8
- G20
- BASIC countries + Russia = BASICR
- PIGS (economics)
References
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- ^ a b c d "BRICS AND BEYOND" - Goldman Sachs study of BRIC and N11 nations, November 23, 2007.
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- ^ "Dollar slides after Russia comments, BRIC summit". London: Guardian. 2009-06-16. Retrieved 2009-06-16.
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{{cite news}}
: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ Martens, China, "IBM Targets Russian Developers: Could overtake India, China in number of developers, says senior executive", OutSourcing World, February 11, 2006
- ^ a b Le Figaro, newspaper, interview with expert Jim 0'Neill Template:Fr icon
- ^ a b "Opinion Page" (PDF). Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ "Study: Energy-rich Arab countries are next emerging market". Thestar.com.my. 2007-02-23. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ Welcome to Huaye Iron&Steel Group[dead link]
- ^ How Africa can become the next Bric, Jim O'Neill, Financial Times
- ^ Acronym alert: the Eagles rock, beyondbrics blog
- ^ a b c d e http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2011/01/21/bric-becomes-brics-changes-on-the-geopolitical-chessboard/2/
- ^ http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2011/01/21/bric-becomes-brics-changes-on-the-geopolitical-chessboard/
- ^ a b c http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6c00e950-b153-11df-b899-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1Bgg5fGXt
- ^ a b http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/south-africa/110107/south-africa-be-bric
- ^ http://en.wikipedia/BRIC
- ^ DealTalk: Nasdaq, CBOE top targets in exchange merger mania Reuters. Feb 10 2011.
- ^ MARTINS, Adler. Available at http://jus.uol.com.br/revista/texto/17419/contratos-internacionais-entre-os-paises-do-bric
- ^ Template:Fr icon see M. Nicolas J. Firzli, Asia-Pacific Funds as Diversification Tools for Institutional Investors (PDF), retrieved 2009-04-02
- ^ [Sapovadia, Vrajlal K., Bric Potency: Truth or Trance‘ (April 3, 2010). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1583828]
- ^ "BRICs and G-2". Indianexpress.com. 2009-06-17. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ "What BRIC would be without China... | David Rothkopf". Rothkopf.foreignpolicy.com. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ "The Hindu News Update Service". Chennai, India: Hindu.com. 2009-06-08. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ Template:En icon see M. Nicolas J. Firzli, “Forecasting the Future: The G7, the BRICs and the China Model”, JTW & An-Nahar, Mar 9 2011, retrieved 2011-03-09
- ^ "Land of promise". Economist.com. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ "SSRN-BRIC Potency: Truth or Trance? by Vrajlal Sapovadia". Papers.ssrn.com. 2010-04-03. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ "/ FTfm - Emerging Markets: Brics sceptics have their backs to the wall". Ft.com. 2006-12-11. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ See List of countries by GDP (nominal)
- ^ Pesek, William (2005-12-08). "South Korea, Another `BRIC' in Global Wall: William Pesek Jr". Bloomberg. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ a b http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/brics/book/BRIC-Full.pdf
- ^ Correio Da Manha, newspaper[dead link]
- ^ Business Standard, "Emerging risk and return"[dead link]
- ^ Company News Group, "L'oreal, first quarter sales report"[dead link]
- ^ "BRIC thesis Goldman Sachs Investment Bank, "BRIC"" (PDF). Gs.com. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ Global Economics Paper No: 153 The N-11m: More Than an Acronym, March 28, 2007.
- ^ List of countries by future GDP (PPP) estimates
- ^ http://www.strattonstreetcapital.com/abf/reports/a%20pile%20of%20brics.pdf
- ^ "Global Economics Paper No: 188 "A United Korea?"" (PDF). Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ a b "Unified Korea to Exceed G7 in 2050". Koreatimes.co.kr. 2009-09-21. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ "Questia Online Library". Questia.com. Retrieved 2010-10-15.
- ^ List of countries by population
Bibliography
- Elder, Miriam, and Leahy, Joe, et al., Who's who: Bric leaders take their place at the top table, Financial Times, London, September 25, 2008
- M. Nicolas J. Firzli, ‘Asia-Pacific Funds as Diversification Tools for Institutional Investors’ (2009), Q2, Revue Analyse Financière, pp. 30–32
- M. Nicolas J. Firzli, “Forecasting the Future: The G7, the BRICs and the China Model”, JTW & An-Nahar, Mar 9 2011, p.8
- O'Neill, Jim, BRICs could point the way out of the Economic Mire, Financial Times, London, September 23, 2008, p. 28.
- Mark Kobayashi-Hillary, 'Building a Future with BRICs: The Next Decade for Offshoring' (Nov 2007). ISBN 978-3-540-46453-2.
- J. Vercueil, Les pays émergents. Brésil-Russie-Inde-Chine... Mutations économiques et nouveaux défis (Emerging Countries. Brazil - Russia - India - China... Economic Transformations and new Challenges) (in French), Paris : Bréal, 2010, 207 p. ISBN 978-2-7495-0957-0
External links
- Business news from the BRIC countries
- Goldman Sachs: The BRICs Dream: Web Tour, July 2006
- Grant Thornton IBR - Emerging markets: reshaping the global economy. May 2008
- Grant Thornton IBR - Emerging markets (BRIC) focus. 2007
- Thomas Harr, Senior Analyst, Danske Bank: BRIC The Major Issues; June 2006
- Kristalina Georgieva, Country Director Russian Federation, World Bank: BRIC Countries in Comparative Perspective, 2006
- Article on Brics from the Danish National Bank with extensive statistics and comaprisons with G7 countries and Denmark,
- Businessweek article on Goldman Sach's predictions regarding BRIC
- Goldman Sach's predictions for BRIC (PDF)
- "Mapping the Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council's 2020 Project" - National Intelligence Council report and Forecast
- Luxury Marketing in BRIC Countries: When Fashion and Foreign Policy Converge. Market segment analysis by Criterion Global, International Media Buying firm
- BBC Documentary Archive - four part audio documentary
- BRIC's on BRIC's program : Harnessing growth in new realities at Fundaçao dom Cabral, 13th business school in the world
- Goldman Sachs - Global Economics Paper No. 99: Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050, October, 2003 (PDF)
- Goldman Sachs - How Solid are the BRICs? December, 2005 (PDF)
- Goldman Sachs - Is this the ‘BRICs Decade’? May, 2010 (PDF)
- Who’s the best Bric now? September, 2010
- "A short history" (Foreign Policy) by Blake Hounshell