2024 United States presidential election: Difference between revisions
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*[[Larry Hogan]], [[Governor of Maryland|62nd Governor of Maryland]] (2015–present)<ref>{{Cite web|date=June 25, 2021|title=What's Next for Larry Hogan?|url=https://www.washingtonian.com/2021/06/25/larry-hogan-2024/|access-date=July 16, 2021|website=Washingtonian|language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=The Case for (and Against) Larry Hogan 2024|url=https://politicalwire.com/2021/06/26/the-case-for-and-against-larry-hogan-2024/|access-date=July 16, 2021|website=Political Wire|language=en-US|date=June 26, 2021}}</ref> |
*[[Larry Hogan]], [[Governor of Maryland|62nd Governor of Maryland]] (2015–present)<ref>{{Cite web|date=June 25, 2021|title=What's Next for Larry Hogan?|url=https://www.washingtonian.com/2021/06/25/larry-hogan-2024/|access-date=July 16, 2021|website=Washingtonian|language=en-US}}</ref><ref>{{Cite web|title=The Case for (and Against) Larry Hogan 2024|url=https://politicalwire.com/2021/06/26/the-case-for-and-against-larry-hogan-2024/|access-date=July 16, 2021|website=Political Wire|language=en-US|date=June 26, 2021}}</ref> |
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* [[Rand Paul]], [[United States Senate|United States Senator]] from [[Kentucky]] since 2011; [[Rand Paul 2016 presidential campaign|candidate]] for president in [[2016 Republican Party presidential primaries|2016]]<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pompeo-haley-and-paul-early-moves-spark-more-2024-speculation|work=[[Fox News]]|access-date=April 3, 2021|date=March 16, 2021|last1=Steinhauser|first1=Paul|title=Pompeo, Haley and Paul early moves spark 2024 speculation}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/rand-paul/2021/04/01/rand-paul-joining-summit-by-rally-preceding-capitol-riot-organizer/4820463001/|work=[[The Courier-Journal]]|access-date=May 30, 2021|date=April 1, 2021|last1=Watkins|first1=Morgan|title=Rand Paul to join summit held by organizer of rally that preceded Jan. 6 Capitol riot}}</ref> |
* [[Rand Paul]], [[United States Senate|United States Senator]] from [[Kentucky]] since 2011; [[Rand Paul 2016 presidential campaign|candidate]] for president in [[2016 Republican Party presidential primaries|2016]]<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pompeo-haley-and-paul-early-moves-spark-more-2024-speculation|work=[[Fox News]]|access-date=April 3, 2021|date=March 16, 2021|last1=Steinhauser|first1=Paul|title=Pompeo, Haley and Paul early moves spark 2024 speculation}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/rand-paul/2021/04/01/rand-paul-joining-summit-by-rally-preceding-capitol-riot-organizer/4820463001/|work=[[The Courier-Journal]]|access-date=May 30, 2021|date=April 1, 2021|last1=Watkins|first1=Morgan|title=Rand Paul to join summit held by organizer of rally that preceded Jan. 6 Capitol riot}}</ref> |
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* [[Mike Pence]], [[Vice-President of the United States]] (2017-2021)<ref name=Pence-Times01a>{{cite news|url=https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mike-pence-gives-his-strongest-hint-he-will-run-in-2024-8j7t5ppz7|title=Mike Pence gives his strongest hint he will run in 2024|publisher=[[The Times]]|author=Alistair Dawber|authorlink=|date=5 June 2021|accessdate=24 August 2021|quote=}}</ref><ref name=Pence-CNN01a>{{cite web|url=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/04/politics/mike-pence-donald-trump-2024/index.html|title=Did Mike Pence just doom his 2024 chances?|publisher=[[CNN]]|author=Chris Cillizza|authorlink=Chris Cillizza|date=5 June 2021|accessdate=24 August 2021|quote=}}</ref><ref name=Pence-Politico01a>{{cite web|url=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/19/pence-flatlines-2024-499919|title=Pence flatlines as 2024 field takes shape|publisher=[[Politico]]|author=David Siders|authorlink=|date=19 July 2021|accessdate=24 August 2021|quote=“There are some Trump supporters who think he’s the Antichrist,” said one Iowa GOP official}}</ref><ref name=Pence-IndyStar01a>{{cite news|url=https://eu.indystar.com/story/news/politics/2021/07/20/donald-trump-news-book-mike-pence-potential-2024-presidential-election-candidates-rivals/8023849002/|title='It’s a free country': Trump addresses Pence as potential 2024 competitor in new interview|publisher=[[Indianapolis Star]]|author=Rashika Jaipuriar|authorlink=|date=20 July 2021|accessdate=24 August 2021|quote=}}</ref><ref>https://www.politico.com/news/2021/08/17/pence-gop-donors-retreat-505288</ref> |
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* [[Rick Scott]], [[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]] from [[Florida]] (2019–present), [[Governor of Florida|45th Governor of Florida]] (2011–2019)<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rick-scott-iowa-midterm-election|title=Rick Scott stops in Iowa for midterm election mission that could set him up for 2024|date=April 1, 2021|access-date=August 11, 2021|last1=Steinhauser|first1=Paul|work=Fox News}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/04/rick-scott-maga-473548|title=NH Primary Source: NRSC Chair Sen. Rick Scott to headline virtual NHGOP fundraiser|website=[[WMUR-TV]]|last1=DiStaso|first1=John|date=April 29, 2021|access-date=August 11, 2021}}</ref> |
* [[Rick Scott]], [[United States Senate|U.S. Senator]] from [[Florida]] (2019–present), [[Governor of Florida|45th Governor of Florida]] (2011–2019)<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rick-scott-iowa-midterm-election|title=Rick Scott stops in Iowa for midterm election mission that could set him up for 2024|date=April 1, 2021|access-date=August 11, 2021|last1=Steinhauser|first1=Paul|work=Fox News}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.politico.com/news/2021/03/04/rick-scott-maga-473548|title=NH Primary Source: NRSC Chair Sen. Rick Scott to headline virtual NHGOP fundraiser|website=[[WMUR-TV]]|last1=DiStaso|first1=John|date=April 29, 2021|access-date=August 11, 2021}}</ref> |
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* [[Donald Trump Jr.]], businessman and eldest son of former President Trump<ref>{{cite web|last1=Jarvis|first1=Jacob|title=Donald Trump Jr. Touts Polls in CPAC Interview, But Says He Hasn't Thought About 2024 Run|url=https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-jr-2024-cpac-1608538|website=[[Newsweek]]|access-date=July 12, 2021|date=July 10, 2021}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|last1=Roop|first1=Lee|title=Donald Trump Jr. at Alabama fishing expo hears his name floated for 2024 GOP ticket|url=https://www.al.com/news/2021/07/donald-trump-jr-at-alabama-fishing-expo-hears-his-name-floated-for-2024-gop-ticket.html|website=[[List of Advance subsidiaries|AL.com]]|access-date=July 12, 2021|date=July 10, 2021}}</ref> |
* [[Donald Trump Jr.]], businessman and eldest son of former President Trump<ref>{{cite web|last1=Jarvis|first1=Jacob|title=Donald Trump Jr. Touts Polls in CPAC Interview, But Says He Hasn't Thought About 2024 Run|url=https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-jr-2024-cpac-1608538|website=[[Newsweek]]|access-date=July 12, 2021|date=July 10, 2021}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|last1=Roop|first1=Lee|title=Donald Trump Jr. at Alabama fishing expo hears his name floated for 2024 GOP ticket|url=https://www.al.com/news/2021/07/donald-trump-jr-at-alabama-fishing-expo-hears-his-name-floated-for-2024-gop-ticket.html|website=[[List of Advance subsidiaries|AL.com]]|access-date=July 12, 2021|date=July 10, 2021}}</ref> |
Revision as of 12:33, 7 September 2021
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538 members of the Electoral College 270 electoral votes needed to win | |||
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Democratic Party | |
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The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] It will be the first presidential election after electoral votes are distributed according to the post-2020 census reapportionment. Incumbent president Joe Biden has stated that he intends to run for reelection to a second term.[2]
In the United States, general elections follow caucuses and primary elections held by the major parties to determine their nominees. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the various political parties of the United States, which is awarded through a process such as a primary election. The primary elections are usually indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The presidential nominee typically chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket, which is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
Similarly, the general election in November is also an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[3] If no candidate receives the minimum 270 electoral votes needed to win the election, a contingent election will be held in which the House of Representatives will select the president from the three candidates who received the most electoral votes, and the Senate will select the vice president from the candidates who received the two highest totals. The presidential election will occur simultaneously with House of Representatives elections, Senate elections, and various state and local-level elections.
Effects of the 2020 census
The election has been the early subject of attention by analysts and commentators, as it will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College, which will follow the 2020 United States census.[4][5] This realignment of electoral college votes will remain consistent through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States Census.[6]
The House of Representatives will have redistributed the seats among the 50 states based on the results of the 2020 census, and the states will conduct a redistricting cycle in 2021 and 2022, where Congressional and state legislative districts will be redrawn. In most states, the governor and the state legislature conduct the redistricting (although some states have bipartisan or nonpartisan redistricting commissions). The party that wins a presidential election often experiences a coattail effect, which helps other candidates of that party win elections.[7] In 2020, although its nominee Joe Biden won the presidential election, the Democratic Party did not flip any state legislature chambers and in fact lost both New Hampshire legislative chambers and the Montana governorship. This will allow the Republican Party to have redistricting control of seats in New Hampshire,[8][9] potentially leading to gerrymandering that will stay in effect until the 2030 census, similar to the REDMAP project after the 2010 Census.[10][11][9]
Campaign issues
COVID-19 pandemic
The COVID-19 pandemic, which, as of September 2021[update], has killed over 640,000 people in the United States (more than 1 in 520 Americans),[12] has had significant economic and societal effects which could pass on to the 2024 presidential election. The high visibility of governors in fighting the pandemic has been viewed as having given them a boost in possible 2024 contention, in contrast to the significant advantage senators have had in recent cycles.[13]
Candidates
Democratic Party
Democrat Joe Biden is the incumbent president, elected for his first term in office in the 2020 election, and has stated he intends to run for reelection for a second term in 2024. He is the oldest person to assume the office, at age 78, and would be 82 at the end of his first term and 86 at the end of his second term, if reelected.
Publicly expressed interest
As of September 2021[update], individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.
- Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States (2021–present); 47th Vice President of the United States (2009–2017); United States Senator from Delaware (1973–2009), New Castle County Councillor for District 4 (1971–1973); Democratic Party candidate for president in 2008 & 1988[14]
Other potential candidates
As of September 2021[update], the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months. Speculation about Vice President Kamala Harris has been discussed in the context of President Biden not seeking re-election,[15] whereas speculation about Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been discussed in the context of a challenge to either Harris or an incumbent Biden.[16]
- Pete Buttigieg, 19th United States Secretary of Transportation (2021–present); Mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020); candidate for president in 2020[17][18]
- Kamala Harris, 49th Vice President of the United States (2021–present); United States Senator from California (2017–2021), 32nd Attorney General of California (2011–2017); 27th District Attorney of San Francisco (2004–2011); candidate for president in 2020[15][16]
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, United States Representative from New York's 14th District (2019–present)[16][19]
Declined to be candidates
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Andrew Cuomo, 56th Governor of New York (2011–2021); 64th Attorney General of New York (2007–2010), 11th United States Secretary of Housing and Urban Development (1997–2001); Assistant Secretary of Housing and Urban Development for Community Planning and Development (1993–1997)[20][21]
- Michelle Obama, First Lady of the United States (2009–2017)[22][23]
- Bernie Sanders, United States Senator from Vermont (2007–present); United States Representative from Vermont's District (1991–2007); 37th Mayor of Burlington, Vermont (1981–1989); candidate for president in 2020 and 2016[24][25]
- Elizabeth Warren, United States Senator from Massachusetts (2013–present); candidate for president in 2020[26][27]
Republican Party
Donald Trump was defeated by Joe Biden in 2020 and was impeached by the House of Representatives for the second time. He was acquitted in his second impeachment trial in 2021 by the Senate, and is currently eligible to run again in the 2024 presidential election. If he decides to run, he would be seeking to become the second president, after Grover Cleveland, to serve two non-consecutive terms.[28][29] The last president to run after leaving office was Theodore Roosevelt, who came in second in the 1912 election as the candidate of the Progressive Party, although Herbert Hoover did briefly seek the Republican nomination at national conventions subsequent to his leaving office in 1933.
Publicly expressed interest
As of September 2021[update], individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.
- Ted Cruz, United States Senator from Texas (2013–present); candidate for president in 2016[30]
- Matt Gaetz, U.S. Representative from Florida's 1st District (2017–present)[31]
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021); Republican nominee for president in 2020 and 2016 and Reform Party candidate in 2000[32]
Potential candidates
As of September 2021[update], the following people have been subjects of speculation about their potential candidacy within the previous six months.
- Chris Christie, 55th Governor of New Jersey (2010–2018); candidate for president in 2016[33][34]
- Marjorie Taylor Greene, U.S. Representative from Georgia's 14th District (2021–present)[35][36]
- Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018); 116th Governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[37][38]
- Larry Hogan, 62nd Governor of Maryland (2015–present)[39][40]
- Rand Paul, United States Senator from Kentucky since 2011; candidate for president in 2016[41][42]
- Mike Pence, Vice-President of the United States (2017-2021)[43][44][45][46][47]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present), 45th Governor of Florida (2011–2019)[48][49]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and eldest son of former President Trump[50][51]
Declined to be candidates
The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight (2016–present) and co-founder of The Daily Caller[52][53]
- Liz Cheney, United States Representative from Wyoming's District (2017–present) and daughter of former Vice President of the United States Dick Cheney[54][55]
- Dan Crenshaw, United States Representative from Texas' 2nd District (2019–present)[56][57]
- Joni Ernst, United States Senator from Iowa (2015–present)[58][59]
- Josh Hawley, United States Senator from Missouri (2019–present)[60][61]
- Kristi Noem, 33rd Governor of South Dakota (2019–present); United States Representative from South Dakota's District (2011–2019)[62][63]
- Dan Patrick, 42nd Lieutenant Governor of Texas (2015–present)[64][65]
- Mike Pompeo, 70th United States Secretary of State (2018–2021), 6th Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018), United States Representative from Kansas' 4th District (2011–2017)[66][67]
- Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (2015–2019), United States Representative from Wisconsin's 1st District (1999–2019) and 2012 Republican vice-presidential nominee[68][69]
- Tim Scott, United States Senator from South Carolina (2013–present); United States Representative from South Carolina's 1st District (2011–2013); Member of the South Carolina House of Representatives from the 117th District (2009–2011), Member of the Charleston County Council from the 3rd District (1995–2009)[70][71]
- Ivanka Trump Kushner, Advisor to the President of the United States (2017–2021); Eldest daughter of Donald Trump[72][73]
- Scott Walker, 45th Governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019); 5th Executive of Milwaukee County (2002–2010); member of the Wisconsin State Assembly from the 14th District (1993–2002); candidate for president in 2016[74][75]
Independents, other third parties, or party unknown
Publicly expressed interest
As of September 2021[update], individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.
- Kanye West, recording artist, businessman, and fashion designer; independent candidate for president in 2020[76][77]
Primary election polling
Democratic Party
- Nationwide polling
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Other | Undecided |
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Emerson College | August 30 – Sep 1, 2021 | 450 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 60% | 39% | 1% |
Trafalgar Group | Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 | – (LV)[b] | – | 57% | 22%[c] | 15%[d] |
- Statewide polling
- Iowa caucuses
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Insights | April 8, 2021 | 600 (V) | – | 63% | 11%[e] | 26% |
- Nationwide polling
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Stacey Abrams |
Cory Booker |
Pete Buttigieg |
Andrew Cuomo |
Kamala Harris |
Amy Klobuchar |
Michelle Obama |
Beto O'Rourke |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Andrew Yang |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McLaughlin & Associates | July 29 – August 3, 2021 | 467 (LV) | – | 4% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 28% | 2% | 16% | 2% | 7% | 4% | 6%[f] | 14% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | July 30 – August 2, 2021 | 697 (A) | – | 4% | – | 6% | – | 44% | – | – | – | 4% | – | 18%[g] | 24% |
McLaughlin & Associates | June 16–20, 2021 | 463 (LV) | – | 5% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 31% | 3% | 19% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 6%[h] | 16% |
McLaughlin & Associates | May 12–18, 2021 | 459 (LV) | – | 4% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 35% | 3% | 16% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 9%[i] | 13% |
Trafalgar Group | Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 | – (LV)[j] | – | – | – | 9% | – | 41% | 5% | – | 4% | 8% | 3% | 29%[k] | – |
McLaughlin & Associates | Apr 8–13, 2021 | 458 (LV) | – | – | 4% | 5% | 2% | 34% | 4% | 20% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 6%[l] | 12% |
McLaughlin & Associates | Feb 24–28, 2021 | 443 (LV) | – | – | 4% | 7% | 1% | 28% | 3% | 23% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 6%[m] | 14% |
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Dec 9–13, 2020 | 445 (LV) | – | – | 3% | 5% | 5% | 25% | 2% | 29% | – | 7% | – | 8%[n] | 18% |
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax | Nov 21–23, 2020 | 445 (LV) | ± 3.1% | – | 2% | 6% | 5% | 29% | 2% | 23% | – | 6% | – | 5%[o] | 23% |
2020 presidential election | |||||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Nov 2–3, 2020 | 461 (LV) | – | – | 2% | 8% | 8% | 18% | – | 25% | – | 6% | – | 6%[p] | 28% |
Léger | Aug 4–7, 2020 | 390 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 6% | 6% | 16% | 21% | 19% | 6% | – | 6% | 9% | 8% | 3%[q] | – |
- Statewide polling
- Iowa caucuses
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg |
Kamala Harris |
John Kerry |
Amy Klobuchar |
Michelle Obama |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez |
Bernie Sanders |
Elizabeth Warren |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Insights | April 8, 2021 | 600 (V) | – | 15% | 28% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 16% |
Republican Party
Nationwide polling
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tucker Carlson |
Ted Cruz |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Josh Hawley |
Larry Hogan |
Mike Pence |
Mike Pompeo |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump |
Donald Trump Jr. |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 30 – Sep 1, 2021 | 395 (RV) | ± 4.9% | – | 2% | 10% | 7% | 1% | – | 6% | – | 3% | – | – | 67% | – | 5%[r] | 1% |
McLaughlin & Associates | July 29 – August 3, 2021 | 467 (LV) | – | – | 3% | 11% | 4% | – | – | 8% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 54%[s] | – | 7%[t] | 6% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | July 30 – August 2, 2021 | 518 (A) | – | 2% | – | 13% | 4% | 0% | – | 3% | – | – | 1% | 1% | 58% | – | 1%[u] | 17% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | July 6–8, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | 2% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 8% | 0% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 47%[s] | - | 2%[v] | 13% |
– | – | 31% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 58%[s] | – | – | 11% | ||||
John Bolton Super PAC | July 8, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | – | 5% | 13% | 5% | 0% | – | 6% | – | – | 3% | 0% | 46% | – | 22% | – |
Echelon Insights[1] | June 18–22, 2021 | 386 (RV) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 59%[s] | – | 35% | 6% |
McLaughlin & Associates | June 16–20, 2021 | 444 (LV) | – | – | 4% | 9% | 3% | – | – | 8% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 55%[s] | – | 8%[w] | 7% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 24–26, 2021 | 378 (A) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 65% | – | 19%[x] | 16% |
Quinnipiac | May 18–24, 2021 | ~290 (A)[y] | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 66% | – | 30%[z] | 4% |
McLaughlin & Associates | May 12–18, 2021 | 444 (LV) | – | 1% | 3% | 8% | 5% | – | – | 10% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 57%[s] | – | 7%[aa] | 7% |
Echelon Insights[2] | May 14–17, 2021 | 479 (RV) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 63%[s] | – | 31% | 6% |
Morning Consult/Politico | May 14–17, 2021 | 782 (RV) | ± 2% | – | 4% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 48% | 7% | 9%[ab] | – |
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 11–13, 2021 | 348 (A) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 68% | – | 22%[ac] | 10% |
Trafalgar Group | Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 | – (LV)[ad] | – | –[s] | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 62% | – | 27%[ae] | 11%[af] |
Echelon Insights[3] | Apr 16–23, 2021 | 440 (RV) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 59%[s] | – | 35% | 6% |
McLaughlin & Associates | Apr 8–13, 2021 | 441 (LV) | – | 1% | 3% | 7% | 2% | – | – | 10% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 55%[s] | – | 8%[ag] | 9% |
PEM Management Corporation | Apr 3–7, 2021 | 494 (LV) | – | – | 7% | 9% | 9% | – | – | 6% | – | – | 3% | – | 44% | – | 1%[ah] | – |
Echelon Insights | March 15–21, 2021 | 1,008 (RV) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 60%[s] | – | 30% | 10% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill[4] | Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 | 1,264 (LV) | ± 2.7% | – | 3% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 51%[s] | - | 3%[ai] | 12% |
– | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 57%[aj] | – | 16%[ak] | 27% | ||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Feb 24–28, 2021 | 448 (LV) | – | 1% | 5% | 4% | 3% | – | – | 8% | – | 3% | 1% | – | 54%[s] | – | 9%[al] | 10% |
Harvard-Harris | Feb 23–25, 2021 | 546 (RV) | – | – | 5% | – | 7% | 2% | – | 18% | – | – | – | 2% | 52%[s] | – | 13%[am] | – |
Echelon Insights | Feb 12–18, 2021 | 430 (RV) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 55%[s] | – | 32% | 14% |
Morning Consult/Politico | Feb 14–15, 2021 | 645 (RV) | ± 4% | – | 4% | – | 6% | 1% | 1% | 12% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 54% | 6% | 10%[an] | – |
Echelon Insights | Jan 20–26, 2021 | – (RV)[ao] | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 48%[s] | – | 40% | 11% |
Léger | Jan 15–17, 2021 | 1,007 (A)[ap] | ± 3.09% | – | 6% | 2% | 7% | 1% | 6% | 13% | 2% | 19% | 3% | 3% | 29%[s] | 2% | 6%[aq] | – |
Ipsos/Axios | Jan 11–13, 2021 | 334 (A) | ± 5.8% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 57% | – | 41% | 1%[ar] |
Morning Consult/Politico | Jan 8–11, 2021 | 702 (RV) | – | – | 7% | – | 6% | 1% | 0% | 18% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 40% | 6% | 15%[as] | – |
McLaughlin & Associates | Dec 9–13, 2020 | 442 (LV) | – | 3% | 5% | 1% | 3% | – | – | 11% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 56% | – | 5%[at] | 10% |
Fox News | Dec 6–9, 2020 | ~ 413 (RV) | ± 4.5% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 71% | – | 21%[au] | 8% |
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax | Nov 21–23, 2020 | 442 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | – | – | 9% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 53%[s] | – | 6%[av] | 15% |
Morning Consult/Politico | Nov 21–23, 2020 | 765 (RV) | ± 2% | – | 4% | – | 4% | 1% | 0% | 12% | – | 4% | 2% | 1% | 53% | 8% | 11%[aw] | – |
HarrisX/The Hill | Nov 17–19, 2020 | 599 (RV) | ± 2.26% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 75% | – | 25% | – |
Seven Letter Insight | Nov 10–19, 2020 | ~555 (V)[ax] | ± 2.5% | 2% | 6% | – | 7% | 1% | – | 19% | – | – | 4% | 2% | 35% | 11% | 4%[ay] | – |
Léger | Nov 13–15, 2020 | 304 (A)[az] | ± 3.09% | 4% | 7% | – | 4% | – | – | 22% | 2% | 8% | 5% | – | 45%[s] | – | 5%[ba] | – |
YouGov/Washington Examiner | October 30, 2020 | – (RV)[bb] | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 38% | – | 43%[bc] | – |
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tucker Carlson |
Ted Cruz |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Josh Hawley |
Larry Hogan |
Mike Pence |
Mike Pompeo |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Tim Scott |
Donald Trump Jr. |
Other | Undecided | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 30 – Sep 1, 2021 | 395 (RV) | ± 4.9% | – | 13% | 32% | 10% | 6% | – | 24% | – | 6% | – | – | – | 9%[bd] | 0% | ||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | July 29 – August 3, 2021 | 467 (LV) | – | – | 9% | 23% | 4% | – | – | 11% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 1% | 12% | 16%[be] | 14% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights[5] | July 19–23, 2021 | 421 (RV) | – | 1% | 9% | 32% | 4% | 1% | 0%[bf] | 17% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 10% | 6%[bg] | 13% | ||||||||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | July 6–8, 2021 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | 7% | 39% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 15% | 1% | 3% | – | 2% | – | 4%[bh] | 24% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights[6] | June 18–22, 2021 | 386 (RV) | – | 1% | 6% | 21% | 6% | 0%[bi] | 0%[bj] | 14% | 0%[bk] | 4% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 7%[bl] | 26% | ||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | June 16–20, 2021 | 444 (LV) | – | – | 6% | 24% | 4% | – | – | 19% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 15% | 13%[bm] | 11% | ||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | May 12–18, 2021 | 444 (LV) | – | 1% | 12% | 18% | 5% | – | – | 19% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 13% | 13%[bn] | 12% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights[7] | May 14–17, 2021 | 479 (RV) | – | 2% | 9% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0%[bo] | 14% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 6% | 9%[bp] | 19% | ||||||||
Trafalgar Group | Apr 30 – May 6, 2021 | – (LV)[bq] | – | – | 15% | 35% | 6% | 1% | – | 10% | – | 10% | – | – | – | 21%[br] | – | ||||||||
Echelon Insights[8] | Apr 16–23, 2021 | 440 (RV) | – | 2% | 8% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0%[bs] | 16% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0%[bt] | 9% | 3%[bu] | 28% | ||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Apr 8–13, 2021 | 441 (LV) | – | 3% | 10% | 14% | 3% | – | – | 19% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 15% | 13%[bv] | 14% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights | March 15–21, 2021 | 1,008 (RV) | – | 4% | 5% | 17% | 4% | – | – | 16% | 4% | 3% | 2% | – | 3% | 7%[bw] | 35% | ||||||||
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/The Hill[9] | Feb 20 – March 2, 2021 | 1,264 (LV) | ± 2.7% | – | 13% | 17% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 19% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 1% | – | 7%[bx] | 20% | ||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Feb 24–28, 2021 | 448 (LV) | – | 1% | 9% | 9% | 5% | – | – | 15% | – | 6% | 2% | – | 21% | 16%[by] | 17% | ||||||||
RMG Research/Just the News | Feb 25–27, 2021 | 363 (RV) | – | 8% | 18% | 21% | 10% | 2% | – | – | 9% | – | – | – | – | 33%[bz] | – | ||||||||
Harvard-Harris | Feb 23–25, 2021 | 546 (RV) | – | – | 16% | – | 10% | 6% | – | 41% | – | – | – | 7% | – | 19%[ca] | – | ||||||||
Echelon Insights | Feb 12–18, 2021 | 430 (RV) | – | 1% | 10% | 8% | 6% | ≤1% | 1% | 21% | 1% | 4% | ≤1% | ≤1% | 8% | 12%[cb] | 26% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights | Jan 20–26, 2021 | – (RV)[cc] | – | 2% | 8% | 2% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 21% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 10% | 10%[cd] | 30% | ||||||||
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Léger | Jan 15–17, 2021 | 1,007 (A)[ce] | ± 3.09% | – | 9% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 22% | 3% | 20% | 4% | 3% | 11% | 8%[cf] | – | ||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates/Newsmax | Nov 21–23, 2020 | 442 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 1% | 7% | 2% | 6% | – | – | 20% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 20% | 13%[cg] | 22% | ||||||||
Léger | Nov 13–15, 2020 | 304 (A)[ch] | ± 3.1% | 6% | 14% | – | 6% | – | – | 44% | 3% | 11% | 6% | – | – | 7%[ci] | – | ||||||||
2020 presidential election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
McLaughlin & Associates | Nov 2–3, 2020 | 449 (LV) | – | 2% | 5% | 2% | 8% | – | – | 30% | – | 5% | 2% | 1% | 20% | 5%[cj] | 21% | ||||||||
Echelon Insights | Aug 14–18, 2020 | 423 (LV) | – | 2% | 4% | – | 7% | 0% | 1% | 26% | – | – | 5% | 1% | 12% | 11%[ck] | 29% | ||||||||
Léger | Aug 4–7, 2020 | 309 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 7% | 8% | – | 11% | – | – | 31% | 3% | 9% | 5% | – | 17% | 9%[cl] | – |
Statewide polling
Georgia primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Chris Christie |
Ted Cruz |
Nikki Haley |
Mike Pence |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | March 7–9, 2021 | – (LV)[cm] | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 70% | 18%[cn] | 12% | |||||
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||||
University of Nevada/BUSR | December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021 | 209 (LV) | ± 7% | 1% | 5% | 3% | – | 2% | 3% | 73%[s] | 2% | – | |||||
1% | 15% | 8% | 36% | 6% | 3% | –[co] | 7% | 24% |
Iowa caucuses
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ted Cruz |
Ron DeSantis |
Nikki Haley |
Kristi Noem |
Mike Pence |
Mike Pompeo |
Mitt Romney |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Victory Insights | Released March 14, 2021 | – (LV)[cp] | – | 4% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 61%[s] | 5% | 3% |
16% | 20% | 10% | 6% | 19% | 6% | 5% | –[co] | 7% | 6% |
Maine primary
Maine's 2nd congressional district
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ted Cruz |
Nikki Haley |
Mike Pence |
Marco Rubio |
Ivanka Trump |
Donald Trump Jr. |
Other | Undecided | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Redrawing of congressional districts after the 2020 redistricting cycle | |||||||||||||||
Inauguration of Joe Biden | |||||||||||||||
2020 presidential election | |||||||||||||||
SurveyUSA / FairVote | Jun 30 – July 6, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 12% | 12% | 30% | 6% | 7% | 11% | – | 21% |
North Carolina primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ted Cruz |
Nikki Haley |
Mike Pence |
Mitt Romney |
Marco Rubio |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Inauguration of Joe Biden | ||||||||||||||||
University of Nevada/BUSR | Nov 30 – December 2, 2020 | 221 (RV) | ± 7% | 3% | 6% | – | 3% | 2% | 76%[s] | 5% | 6% | |||||
9% | 9% | 48% | 9% | 3% | –[co] | 4% | 18% |
South Carolina primary
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trafalgar (R) | Mar 25–29, 2021 | 1,014 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 64% | 11%[cq] | 25%[cr] |
General election polling
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
Rasmussen Reports | August 16–17, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 43% | 20% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | July 30 – August 2, 2021 | 1,552 (A) | – | 47% | 37% | 16% |
PEM Management Corporation/John Bolton Super Pac | July 8, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 43% | 11% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | June 22–24, 2021 | 1,592 (A) | – | 47% | 35% | 18% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 24–26, 2021 | 1,588 (A) | – | 46% | 36% | 18% |
YouGov/Yahoo News | May 11–13, 2021 | 1,561 (A) | – | 48% | 36% | 16% |
Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,106 (A) | – | 45% | 28% | 27% |
PEM Management Corporation/John Bolton Super Pac | Apr 3–7, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other/Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
Echelon Insights | Apr 16–23, 2021 | 1,043 (RV) | – | 45% | 28% | 27% |
Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,105 (A) | – | 41% | 25% | 34% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other/Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,107 (A) | – | 44% | 19% | 37% |
Joe Biden vs. Ted Cruz
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ted Cruz Republican |
Other/Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ipsos/Reuters | April 12–16, 2021 | 1,105 (A) | – | 46% | 24% | 30% |
Joe Biden vs. Mitt Romney
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Mitt Romney Republican |
Other/Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | August 30 – September 1, 2021 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.7% | 42% | 23% | 35% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
McLaughlin & Associates | July 29 – August 3, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | 5% |
Echelon Insights | June 18–22, 2021 | 1,001 (RV) | – | 47% | 40% | 13% |
McLaughlin & Associates | June 16–20, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
McLaughlin & Associates | May 12–18, 2021 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Mike Pence
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Mike Pence Republican |
Other/Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Echelon Insights | June 18–22, 2021 | 1,001 (RV) | – | 45% | 36% | 19% |
Kamala Harris vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date | Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other/Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Echelon Insights | Apr 16–23, 2021 | 1,043 (RV) | – | 43% | 31% | 26% |
Timeline
See also
Notes
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
- ^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Biden" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Biden" with 22%; Would not vote with 6%
- ^ "Consider voting for Biden" with 8%; Undecided with 7%
- ^ "Someone else" with 11%
- ^ John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand and Tim Kaine with 1%; Ilhan Omar with 0%
- ^ Bernie Sanders with 10%; Elizabeth Warren and Tim Kaine with 6%; Sherrod Brown with 2%
- ^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom, Deval Patrick and Ilhan Omar with 1%
- ^ Tim Kaine, Gavin Newsom and Deval Patrick with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Ilhan Omar with 1%
- ^ Democratic subsample of full sample of 1,574 likely voters
- ^ "Someone else" with 26%; Julian Castro with 2%; John Bel Edwards with 1%
- ^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Gavin Newsom with 2%; Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
- ^ John Hickenlooper with 2%; Tim Kaine, Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%; Gavin Newsom with 0%
- ^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Tim Kaine with 2%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Ilhan Omar and Deval Patrick with 1%
- ^ Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper, Tim Kaine, Ilhan Omar, and Deval Patrick with 1%
- ^ John Hickenlooper with 3%; Kirsten Gillibrand, Tim Kaine and Deval Patrick with 1%
- ^ Kirsten Gillibrand with 3%
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%; Tom Cotton with 0%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v Standard VI response
- ^ John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Candace Owens with 2%; Liz Cheney with 1%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
- ^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, John Kasich and Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
- ^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 19%
- ^ 22% of a full sample of 1,316 adults
- ^ "Do not want Trump to run" as opposed to "want Trump to run" with 30%
- ^ Candace Owens with 3%; John Kasich, Liz Cheney, Rick Scott, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Tom Cotton with 0%
- ^ Would not vote with 4%; "Someone else" with 2%; Liz Cheney and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ "Trump should not run again in 2024" as opposed to "Trump should run again in 2024" with 22%
- ^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
- ^ "Unlikely or very unlikely to vote for Trump" as opposed to "Absolute will or likely to vote for Trump" with 24%; Would not vote with 3%
- ^ "Consider voting for Trump" with 8%; Undecided with 4%
- ^ John Kasich with 3%; Candace Owens with 2%; Tom Cotton, Rick Scott with 1%; Kristi Noem with 0%
- ^ Kristi Noem with 1%
- ^ Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ On whether voters thought they'd support a Trump primary campaign if he ran
- ^ "Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 16%
- ^ Candace Owens with 3%; Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 2%; Kristi Noem and Tim Scott with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 12%; Tom Cotton with 1%
- ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
- ^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[78]
- ^ Ben Sasse with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%; Ivanka Trump with 1%
- ^ Listed as "Skipped"
- ^ Would not vote with 6%; "Someone else" with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
- ^ John Kasich and Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ "Would not like to see Trump run for president in 2024" with 21%
- ^ John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
- ^ Would not vote with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Charlie Baker with 0%
- ^ 37% of the full sample of 1,500 2020 general election voters
- ^ Ivanka Trump with 2%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with 1%
- ^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
- ^ John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%; Rick Santorum with 1%
- ^ Republican subsample of 1,200 registered voters
- ^ Respondents who think Trump should do something other than running for president in 2024 with 43%
- ^ "Someone else" with 8%; Tom Cotton with 1%
- ^ Candace Owens with 6%; Ivanka Trump with 5%; Kristi Noem with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton and John Kasich with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ No voters
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Kristi Noem with 1%; Chris Christie, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ Kristi Noem with 2%; Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%; Chris Christie with 0%
- ^ No voters
- ^ No voters
- ^ No voters
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Greg Abbott, Liz Cheney, Chris Christie, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%; Tom Cotton, Josh Hawley and Ben Sasse with 0%
- ^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; Candace Owens with 3%; Liz Cheney with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
- ^ Candace Owens with 5%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; John Kasich with 2%; Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, and Kristi Noem with 1%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ No voters
- ^ Liz Cheney with 3%; Greg Abbott, Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 1%; Chris Christie and Rick Scott with 0%; Dave Portnoy with no voters
- ^ Republican subsample of total sample of 1574 likely voters
- ^ "Someone else" with 19%; Kristi Noem and Ben Sasse with 1%
- ^ No voters
- ^ No voters
- ^ Kristi Noem and "Someone else" with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy and Rick Scott with 0%; Tom Cotton and Ben Sasse with no voters
- ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich with 2%; Rick Scott and Kristi Noem with 1%
- ^ Greg Abbott with 2%; “Someone else,” Tom Cotton, Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse, Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, and Dave Portnoy with 1% or less
- ^ Kristi Noem with 4%; Chris Christie, Tom Cotton and Rick Scott with 1%
- ^ Candace Owens with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Kristi Noem, and Tim Scott with 2%; Rick Scott with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 21%; Tom Cotton and Kristi Noem with 4%; Greg Abbott and Devin Nunes with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 16%; Tom Cotton with 3%
- ^ Dan Crenshaw, Kristi Noem, Ben Sasse and "Someone else" with 2%; Tom Cotton, John Kasich, Rand Paul with 1%; Greg Abbott, Dave Portnoy, and Elise Stefanik with 1% or less
- ^ GOP and GOP-leaning subsample of a full sample of 1,006 registered voters
- ^ Rand Paul with 3%; John Kasich and "Someone else" with 2%; Dan Crenshaw and Tom Cotton with 1%; Greg Abbott, Larry Hogan, Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
- ^ Among all adults (no Republican crosstab published). The same pollster showed 25% for Trump and 19% for Romney in November, when taking into account all voters and not only Republicans.[78]
- ^ Ben Sasse and Ivanka Trump with 3%; Rick Scott with 2%
- ^ Ivanka Trump with 4%; John Kasich with 3%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem with 2%; Rick Scott with 0%
- ^ Among 304 republican adults as opposed to all adults
- ^ Rick Santorum with 3%; John Kasich and Rick Scott with 2%
- ^ John Kasich with 2%; Tom Cotton, Kristi Noem and Rick Scott with 1%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Tom Cotton, Dan Crenshaw, Lindsay Graham and John Kasich with 2%; Ben Sasse and Elise Stefanik with 0%
- ^ Paul Ryan with 4%; Ivanka Trump with 3%; Kevin McCarthy with 2%
- ^ Likely Republican primary voter subsample of 1,093 likely general election voters
- ^ "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 14%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ a b c If Donald Trump did not run
- ^ Not yet released
- ^ "Would vote for anyone other than Trump" with 9%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ "Would consider voting for Trump" with 20%; Undecided with 6%
References
- ^ "Election Planning Calendar" (PDF). essex-virginia.org. Essex County, Virginia. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 7, 2016. Retrieved February 6, 2016.
- ^ "Biden: 'My plan is to run for reelection' in 2024". Politico.com. Retrieved July 19, 2021.
- ^ "US Election guide: how does the election work?". The Daily Telegraph. November 6, 2012. Archived from the original on November 10, 2015. Retrieved October 29, 2015.
- ^ McArdle, Megan (May 21, 2015). "2016 Might Look Safe to Democrats. But 2024?". Bloomberg. Archived from the original on October 23, 2015. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
- ^ Janda, Kenneth (2013). The Challenge of Democracy: American Government in Global Politics. Wadsworth. p. 218. ISBN 978-1133602309.
- ^ Neale, Thomas (2012). The Electoral College: How It Works in Contemporary Presidential Elections (PDF). Congressional Research Service. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 4, 2020. Retrieved October 30, 2015.
- ^ Campbell, James E. (March 1986). "Presidential Coattails and Midterm Losses in State Legislative Elections". The American Political Science Review. 80 (1): 45–63. doi:10.2307/1957083. JSTOR 1957083.
- ^ Jacobson, Louis (November 10, 2020). "Biden's Coattails Didn't Extend to State Legislatures". U.S. News & World Report.
- ^ a b Levine, Sam; Chang, Alvin (December 15, 2020). "As Biden won the presidency, Republicans cemented their grip on power for the next decade". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved February 14, 2021.
- ^ Sarlin, Benjy (August 26, 2014). "Forget 2016: Democrats already have a plan for 2020". MSNBC. Archived from the original on October 28, 2015.
- ^ Daley, David (October 15, 2020). "Inside the Republican Plot for Permanent Minority Rule". The New Republic. Archived from the original on October 18, 2020. Retrieved October 18, 2020.
- ^ "Daily Updates of Totals by Week and State". Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved June 22, 2021.
- ^ Siders, David (April 2, 2020). "How the coronavirus is shaping the 2024 presidential race". Politico. Archived from the original on June 11, 2020. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
- ^ Schwartz, Brian (March 25, 2021). "Joe Biden says he expects to run for reelection in 2024". CNBC. Retrieved March 25, 2021.
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