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2022 United States Senate election in Ohio

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Not to be confused with the 2022 Ohio Senate election.

2022 United States Senate election in Ohio
← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →
Turnout52.32% Decrease 16.1pp
 
Nominee JD Vance Tim Ryan
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,192,114 1,939,489
Percentage 53.04% 46.92%
Vance:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Ryan:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      50%
U.S. senator before election

Rob Portman
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

JD Vance
Republican

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio. Republican writer and venture capitalist JD Vance defeated Democratic U.S. Representative Tim Ryan to succeed retiring incumbent Republican Rob Portman.[1]

Vance won by a 6.1 point margin, which was significantly closer than all other concurrently held elections for statewide offices in Ohio won by Republicans, but fairly consistent with polling for the election.[2][3] Despite his defeat, Ryan flipped four counties carried by Portman in re-election in 2016: Summit, Montgomery, Hamilton, and Lorain, the latter of which Trump won in 2020; however, Vance scored wins in Ryan's home county of Trumbull and the industrial-based Mahoning County that contains much of Youngstown. Both counties were represented by Ryan in his congressional district.

Vance was endorsed by Donald Trump and became the only candidate in the seven statewide general election races funded by Trump's PAC to win.[4]

Republican primary

[edit]
2022 United States Senate election in Ohio Republican Primary
3 May 2022
Turnout1,069,826 votes
 
Candidate JD Vance Josh Mandel
Popular vote 344,736 255,854
Percentage 32.224% 23.92%
 
Candidate Matt Dolan Mike Gibbons
Popular vote 249,239 124,653
Percentage 23.297% 11.652%
Results by county:
  Vance
  •   20–30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40–50%
  Mandel
  •   20-30%
  •   30–40%
  Dolan
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%

As a result of Portman's retirement, this primary was expected to be one of the most competitive in the nation. Due to his high approval ratings within the Republican Party, most of the candidates sought the endorsement of former president Donald Trump. Former state treasurer Josh Mandel, who had been the Republican nominee for Senate in 2012, led most polls until late January, when businessman Mike Gibbons surged after spending millions in TV ads.[5] At a forum in March 2022, Gibbons and Mandel got into a forceful argument over Mandel's private sector experience. The debate moderator intervened after it was feared that the two candidates would come to blows.[6] On April 9, Gibbons said that middle-class Americans don't pay enough in income taxes, which immediately led to his poll numbers plummeting. On April 15, Trump endorsed writer and commentator JD Vance, who had criticized him in the past.[7][8]

Vance had been trailing in the polls, but as a result of Trump's support, he surged to become the race's frontrunner for the first time and led in most polls up to election day. Meanwhile, State Senator Matt Dolan, who disavowed Trump's claims of voter fraud in the 2020 United States presidential election, saw a late surge after buying ad time.[9] Vance won with 32% of the vote with Mandel in second and Dolan in a close third. The primary was considered by many as a test of Trump's influence over the Republican Party as he won Ohio by 8 points in 2020.[10] The primary was also the most expensive in the state's history, with the candidates spending a combined $66 million throughout the campaign.[11]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Matt Dolan
U.S. governors
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Mike Gibbons
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
Individuals
Organizations
Josh Mandel
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Jane Timken
Executive branch officials
U.S. governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State senators
State representatives
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
JD Vance
U.S. Presidents
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Bernie Moreno (withdrawn and endorsed JD Vance)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Ambassadors
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Organizations

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Matt
Dolan 		Mike
Gibbons 		Josh
Mandel 		Jane
Timken 		JD
Vance 		Other
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics April 28 – May 1, 2022 May 2, 2022 21.5% 15.0% 22.5% 7.0% 26.0% 8.0% Vance +3.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Matt
Dolan 		Mike
Gibbons 		Josh
Mandel 		Bernie
Moreno 		Jane
Timken 		Mike
Turner 		JD
Vance 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 29 – May 1, 2022 1,081 (LV) ± 3.0% 22% 13% 21% – 6% – 26% 4%[c] 9%
Emerson College April 28–29, 2022 885 (LV) ± 3.2% 18% 14% 22% – 7% – 24% 4%[d] 11%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] April 25–26, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 12% 12% 19% – 8% – 31% 0% 17%
Blueprint Polling (D) April 21–24, 2022 634 (LV) ± 3.9% 18% 13% 12% – 7% – 17% – 33%
Fox News April 20–24, 2022 906 (LV) ± 3.0% 11% 13% 18% – 6% – 23% 2%[e] 25%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] April 18–19, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 9% 13% 18% – 11% – 25% <1% 23%
The Trafalgar Group (R) April 13–14, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 3.0% 12% 14% 28% – 8% – 23% 3%[f] 13%
Remington Research Group (R)[B] April 11–12, 2022 884 (LV) ± 3.3% 15% 17% 23% – 12% – 10% 3% 20%
Moore Information Group (R)[C] April 3–4, 2022 2,500 (LV) ± 2.0% 13% 20% 16% – 15% – 10% – 26%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] March 30–31, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 9% 18% 18% – 9% – 18% – 29%
University of Akron February 17 – March 15, 2022 – (LV) – 5% 21% 22% – 6% – 10% 4% 34%
Fox News March 2–6, 2022 918 (LV) ± 3.0% 7% 22% 20% – 9% – 11% 3%[g] 24%
Emerson College February 25–26, 2022 410 (LV) ± 4.8% 6% 22% 15% – 6% – 8% 4%[h] 39%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] February 23–24, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 8% 18% 14% – 12% – 14% – 34%
Cygnal (R)[D] February 8–10, 2022 609 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% 23% 11% – 8% – 9% – 44%
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 8–10, 2022 1,085 (LV) ± 3.0% 10% 16% 21% – 10% – 14% 3% 25%
co/efficient (R) February 6–8, 2022 613 (LV) ± 4.0% 7% 20% 18% – 6% – 5% 10%[i] 34%
February 3, 2022 Moreno withdraws from the race
WPA Intelligence (R)[B] January 30 – February 1, 2022 514 (LV) ± 4.4% 5% 17% 28% 6% 9% – 13% – 22%
Cygnal (R)[D] January 28–30, 2022 929 (LV) ± 3.2% 3% 16% 13% 6% 8% – 10% – 45%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] January 18–20, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 3% 14% 15% 11% 13% – 9% 1% 34%
KAConsulting LLC (R)[E] January 11–13, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 3% 10% 20% 10% 18% – 10% – 24%
WPA Intelligence (R)[F] January 5–6, 2022 513 (LV) ± 4.4% 4% 14% 26% 7% 15% – 10% 8% 16%
Moore Information Group (R)[C] January 3, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 4% 14% 18% 9% 16% – 8% – 31%
The Trafalgar Group (R) December 12–15, 2021 1,053 (LV) ± 3.0% 5% 12% 21% 2% 10% – 15% – 34%
Moore Information Group (R)[C] November 29, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 4% 13% 21% 3% 17% – 10% – 32%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] November 21–23, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 7% 18% 2% 10% 6% 10% – 45%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] October 17–18, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 3% 6% 19% 1% 4% 7% 16% – 43%
Moore Information Group (R)[C] September 2021 – (LV) – 6% 12% 22% 3% 11% – 9% – 37%
WPA Intelligence (R)[B] September 20–23, 2021 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 3% 8% 37% 1% 6% – 13% 6% 26%
Remington Research Group (R)[B] September 6–7, 2021 980 (LV) ± 3.0% 2% 5% 34% 2% 11% – 16% – 30%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] August 17–19, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 2% 4% 19% 1% 5% 5% 13% – 51%
WPA Intelligence (R)[F] July 27–29, 2021 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 3% 40% 1% 8% – 12% 13% 20%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] July 20–22, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 1% 2% 21% 2% 7% 7% 12% – 48%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] June 15–17, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 2% 2% 22% 1% 8% 6% 4% – 55%
Remington Research Group (R)[B] June 1–3, 2021 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 2% 5% 35% 2% 16% – 6% – 34%
Moore Information Group (R)[C] May 26, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 7% 24% 1% 19% 8% 4% – 35%
Moore Information Group (R)[C] April 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 1% 23% 1% 14% 7% 4% – 37%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[A] April 20–22, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% – 2% 25% 2% 8% 7% 6% – 51%
Moore Information Group (R)[C] March 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 2% 28% – 11% 7% 2% – 37%
Moore Information Group (R)[C] February 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% – 2% 20% – 5% 8% – – 50%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Gibbons 		Josh
Mandel 		Bernie
Moreno 		Steve
Stivers 		Jane
Timken 		Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)[B] June 1–3, 2021 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% – 45% – – 22% 33%
WPA Intelligence (R)[G] February 1–3, 2021 509 (LV) ± 4.4% 3% 38% 2% 11% 6% 39%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[23][99]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican JD Vance 344,736 32.22%
Republican Josh Mandel 255,854 23.92%
Republican Matt Dolan 249,239 23.30%
Republican Mike Gibbons 124,653 11.65%
Republican Jane Timken 62,779 5.87%
Republican Mark Pukita 22,692 2.12%
Republican Neil Patel 9,873 0.92%
Total votes 1,069,826 100.0%

By county

[edit]

Source[99]

JD Vance Josh Mandel Matt Dolan Mike Gibbons Jane Timken Mark Pukita Neil Patel Margin Total
County Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes
Adams 1,134 36.69% 867 28.05% 368 11.91% 449 14.53% 198 6.41% 53 1.71% 22 0.71% 267 8.64% 3,091
Allen 3,346 30.09% 3,970 35.70% 1,737 15.62% 569 5.12% 990 8.90% 430 3.87% 79 0.71% -624 -5.61% 11,121
Ashland 2,197 29.22% 2,190 29.13% 1,368 18.19% 920 12.24% 438 5.83% 295 3.92% 111 1.48% 7 0.09% 7,519
Ashtabula 3,041 34.00% 2,499 27.94% 1,702 19.03% 951 10.63% 491 5.49% 184 2.06% 75 0.84% 542 6.06% 8,943
Athens 1,141 36.43% 818 26.12% 573 18.30% 352 11.24% 142 4.53% 45 1.44% 61 1.95% 323 10.31% 3,132
Auglaize 1,993 29.97% 2,213 33.28% 946 14.23% 690 10.38% 583 8.77% 173 2.60% 51 0.77% -220 -3.31% 6,649
Belmont 2,637 39.32% 2,143 31.96% 677 10.10% 427 6.37% 631 9.41% 117 1.74% 74 1.10% 494 7.37% 6,706
Brown 1,581 36.61% 1,168 27.04% 557 12.90% 607 14.05% 283 6.55% 94 2.18% 29 0.67% 413 9.56% 4,319
Butler 11,946 36.10% 7,662 23.15% 7,114 21.50% 3,888 11.75% 1,853 5.56% 346 1.05% 286 0.86% 4,284 12.94% 33,095
Carroll 1,181 31.62% 1,105 29.59% 535 14.32% 406 10.87% 376 10.07% 92 2.46% 40 1.07% 76 2.03% 3,735
Champaign 1,933 33.42% 1,554 26.87% 1,107 19.14% 683 11.81% 285 4.93% 154 2.66% 68 1.18% 379 6.55% 5,784
Clark 4,364 29.37% 3,971 26.72% 3,404 22.91% 1,671 11.25% 847 5.70% 470 3.16% 132 0.89% 393 2.64% 14,859
Clermont 7,986 35.18% 4,943 21.77% 4,615 20.33% 3,022 13.31% 1,627 7.17% 309 1.36% 199 0.88% 3,043 13.40% 22,701
Clinton 1,819 34.22% 1,357 25.53% 874 16.44% 779 14.66% 305 5.74% 100 1.88% 81 1.52% 462 8.69% 5,315
Columbiana 3,783 33.32% 2,148 18.92% 1,858 16.37% 1,638 14.43% 1,301 11.46% 536 4.72% 89 0.78% 1,635 14.40% 11,353
Coshocton 1,629 28.33% 1,791 31.14% 897 15.60% 890 15.48% 334 5.81% 124 2.16% 86 1.50% -162 -2.82% 5,751
Crawford 1,677 29.29% 1,852 32.35% 891 15.56% 777 13.57% 337 5.89% 134 2.34% 57 1.00% -175 -3.06% 5,725
Cuyahoga 17,056 26.05% 13,774 21.04% 22,710 34.69% 8,559 13.07% 1,958 2.99% 985 1.50% 429 0.66% -5,654 -8.64% 65,471
Darke 2,726 28.97% 2,955 31.41% 1,399 14.87% 1,575 16.74% 466 4.95% 200 2.13% 88 0.94% -229 -2.43% 9,409
Defiance 1,768 35.58% 1,151 23.16% 633 12.74% 723 14.55% 179 3.60% 446 8.98% 69 1.39% 617 12.42% 4,969
Delaware 9,662 35.38% 5,067 18.56% 8,030 29.41% 2,543 9.31% 1,165 4.27% 381 1.40% 459 1.68% 1,632 5.98% 27,307
Erie 2,531 34.21% 1,838 24.84% 1,655 22.37% 839 11.34% 297 4.01% 189 2.55% 49 0.66% 693 9.37% 7,398
Fairfield 6,232 35.62% 3,985 22.78% 4,222 24.13% 1,917 10.96% 677 3.87% 337 1.93% 127 0.73% 2,010 11.49% 17,497
Fayette 971 29.92% 838 25.82% 633 19.51% 579 17.84% 142 4.38% 40 1.23% 42 1.29% 133 4.10% 3,245
Franklin 22,336 30.89% 12,335 17.06% 26,610 36.80% 6,130 8.48% 2,869 3.97% 1,210 1.67% 813 1.12% -4,274 -5.91% 72,303
Fulton 2,025 30.58% 1,644 24.82% 1,029 15.54% 1,294 19.54% 383 5.78% 183 2.76% 65 0.98% 381 5.75% 6,623
Gallia 1,426 34.09% 1,063 25.41% 418 9.99% 338 8.08% 548 13.10% 322 7.70% 68 1.63% 363 8.68% 4,183
Geauga 4,141 25.07% 3,314 20.06% 6,818 41.27% 1,292 7.82% 573 3.47% 232 1.40% 151 0.91% -2,677 -16.20% 16,521
Greene 6,783 31.22% 5,201 23.94% 5,494 25.29% 2,482 11.42% 1,162 5.35% 410 1.89% 195 0.90% 1,289 5.93% 21,727
Guernsey 1,245 32.52% 1,153 30.11% 724 18.91% 468 12.22% 128 3.34% 83 2.17% 28 0.73% 92 2.40% 3,829
Hamilton 17,043 30.83% 10,661 19.29% 15,150 27.41% 6,194 11.21% 5,155 9.33% 523 0.95% 550 1.00% 1,893 3.42% 55,276
Hancock 2,813 28.87% 2,132 21.88% 2,474 25.39% 1,510 15.50% 434 4.45% 311 3.19% 71 0.73% 339 3.48% 9,745
Hardin 1,075 28.35% 1,199 31.62% 687 18.12% 487 12.84% 216 5.70% 80 2.11% 48 1.27% 124 3.27% 3,792
Harrison 644 34.08% 529 27.99% 186 9.84% 189 10.00% 288 15.24% 27 1.43% 27 1.43% 115 6.08% 1,890
Henry 1,108 31.50% 730 20.76% 617 17.54% 694 19.73% 167 4.75% 173 4.92% 28 0.80% 378 10.75% 3,517
Highland 1,640 37.39% 1,148 26.17% 620 14.14% 575 13.11% 275 6.27% 80 1.82% 48 1.09% 492 11.22% 4,386
Hocking 1,067 34.90% 915 29.93% 459 15.01% 376 12.30% 119 3.89% 105 3.43% 16 0.52% 152 4.97% 3,057
Holmes 1,176 34.55% 1,034 30.38% 495 14.54% 330 9.69% 240 7.05% 110 3.23% 19 0.56% 142 4.17% 3,404
Huron 1,872 31.98% 1,748 29.86% 1,076 18.38% 701 11.97% 217 3.71% 200 3.42% 40 0.68% 124 2.17% 5,854
Jackson 1,055 40.39% 596 22.82% 281 10.76% 330 12.63% 281 10.76% 43 1.65% 26 1.00% 459 17.57% 2,612
Jefferson 2,359 38.85% 1,826 30.07% 567 9.34% 479 7.89% 602 9.91% 200 3.29% 39 0.64% 533 8.78% 6,072
Knox 2,852 35.25% 2,072 25.61% 1,589 19.64% 1,045 12.92% 271 3.35% 199 2.46% 62 0.77% 780 9.64% 8,090
Lake 8,474 29.99% 7,076 25.05% 8,201 29.03% 2,722 9.63% 1,161 4.11% 432 1.53% 186 0.66% 273 0.97% 28,252
Lawrence 2,726 41.38% 1,506 22.86% 681 10.34% 642 9.74% 817 12.40% 87 1.32% 129 1.96% 1,220 18.52% 6,588
Licking 7,154 34.56% 4,711 22.76% 5,074 24.51% 2,433 11.75% 770 3.72% 418 2.02% 142 0.69% 2,080 10.05% '20,702
Logan 1,833 27.36% 2,335 34.86% 1,161 17.33% 891 13.30% 303 4.52% 97 1.45% 79 1.18% -502 -7.49% 6,699
Lorain 7,730 30.23% 6,369 24.91% 6,948 27.18% 2,891 11.31% 1,068 4.18% 406 1.59% 155 0.61% 782 3.06% 25,567
Lucas 7,582 35.05% 4,074 18.83% 4,818 22.27% 3,723 17.21% 784 3.62% 477 2.21% 172 0.80% 2,764 12.78% 21,630
Madison 1,668 32.70% 1,343 26.33% 1,021 20.02% 646 12.66% 243 4.76% 122 2.39% 58 1.14% 325 6.37% 5,101
Mahoning 8,067 39.38% 3,549 17.33% 3,556 17.36% 3,424 16.72% 1,408 6.87% 366 1.79% 114 0.56% 4,511 22.02% 20,484
Marion 2,239 32.84% 1,867 27.38% 1,170 17.16% 931 13.66% 426 6.25% 110 1.61% 75 1.10% 372 5.46% 6,818
Medina 7,078 30.15% 5,891 25.09% 6,097 25.97% 2,606 11.10% 940 4.00% 693 2.95% 170 0.72% 981 4.18% 23,475
Meigs 900 32.76% 729 26.54% 257 9.36% 269 9.79% 427 15.54% 100 3.64% 65 2.37% 171 6.22% 2,747
Mercer 2,454 30.47% 2,697 33.48% 1,132 14.05% 1,032 12.81% 355 4.41% 329 4.08% 56 0.70% -243 -3.02% 8,055
Miami 4,217 30.51% 3,816 27.61% 3,232 23.38% 1,575 11.39% 645 4.67% 216 1.56% 121 0.88% 401 2.90% 13,822
Monroe 506 38.39% 399 30.27% 96 7.28% 96 7.28% 144 10.93% 59 4.48% 18 1.37% 107 8.12% 1,318
Montgomery 14,713 31.96% 11,557 25.11% 11,318 24.59% 4,833 10.50% 2,346 5.10% 783 1.70% 481 1.04% 3,156 6.86% 46,031
Morgan 682 30.86% 681 30.81% 340 15.38% 348 15.75% 90 4.07 27 1.22% 42 1.90% 1 0.05% 2,210
Morrow 2,021 32.61% 1,872 30.20% 1,010 16.30% 812 13.10% 250 4.03% 161 2.60% 72 1.16% 149 2.40% 6,198
Muskingum 2,910 33.96% 2,164 25.25% 1,641 19.15% 927 10.82% 698 8.15% 130 1.52% 99 1.16% 746 8.71% 8,569
Noble 512 33.29% 450 29.26% 179 11.64% 164 10.66% 155 10.08% 64 4.16% 14 0.91% 62 4.03% 1,538
Ottawa 1,854 34.04% 1,091 20.06% 1,059 19.47% 1,100 20.22% 182 3.35% 115 2.11% 41 0.75% 754 13.86% 5,440
Paulding 1,215 45.57% 585 21.94% 147 5.51% 252 9.45% 279 10.47% 137 5.14% 51 1.91% 630 23.63% 2,666
Perry 1,512 33.83% 1,235 27.63% 723 16.17% 771 17.25% 123 2.75% 79 1.77% 27 0.60% 741 16.58% 4,470
Pickaway 2,385 34.34% 1,916 27.59% 1,350 19.44% 865 12.46% 221 3.18% 167 2.40% 41 0.59% 469 6.75% 6,945
Pike 748 41.21% 554 30.52% 224 12.34% 191 10.52% 60 3.31% 25 1.38% 13 0.72% 194 10.69% 1,815
Portage 4,543 30.59% 3,937 26.51% 3,667 24.69% 1,609 10.83% 717 4.83% 287 1.93% 92 0.62% 606 4.08% 14,852
Preble 1,830 30.95% 1,813 30.67% 1,009 17.07% 786 13.29% 358 6.06% 69 1.17% 47 0.79% 17 0.29% 5,912
Putnam 1,912 36.87% 1,539 29.68% 597 11.51% 490 9.45% 510 9.83% 100 1.93% 38 0.73% 373 7.19% 5,186
Richland 4,692 30.85% 5,063 33.29% 2,481 16.31% 1,631 10.72% 596 3.92% 546 3.59% 199 1.31% 371 2.44% 15,208
Ross 2,325 34.98% 1,916 28.83% 1,153 17.35% 860 12.94% 241 3.63% 101 1.52% 51 0.77% 409 6.15% 6,647
Sandusky 2,391 30.63% 1,605 20.56% 1,441 18.46% 1,776 22.75% 291 3.73% 231 2.96% 72 0.92% 615 7.88% 7,807
Scioto 2,740 47.28% 1,319 22.76% 536 9.25% 580 10.01% 499 8.61% 71 1.23% 50 0.86% 1,421 24.52% 5,795
Seneca 2,072 26.83% 1,800 23.31% 1,359 17.260% 1,598 20.69% 362 4.69% 425 5.50% 107 1.39% 272 3.52% 7,723
Shelby 1,888 28.16% 2,421 36.11% 1,074 16.02% 862 12.86% 291 4.34% 116 1.73% 53 0.79% -533 -7.95% 6,705
Stark 11,736 29.88% 8,909 22.68% 8,412 21.42% 3,381 8.61% 5,694 14.50% 879 2.24% 265 0.67% 2,827 7.20% 39,276
Summit 13,188 31.26% 10,369 24.58% 11,459 27.17% 3,780 8.96% 2,315 5.49% 723 1.71% 348 0.82% 2,819 6.68% 42,182
Trumbull 6,567 37.62% 3,564 20.42% 2,997 17.17% 2,728 15.63% 1,121 6.42% 353 2.02% 126 0.72% 3,003 17.20% 17,456
Tuscarawas 2,750 34.52% 2,217 27.83% 1,281 16.08% 793 9.95% 672 8.44% 199 2.50% 54 0.68% 533 6.69% 7,966
Union 2,765 34.18% 1,883 23.28% 1,837 22.71% 978 12.09% 302 3.73% 222 2.74% 102 1.26% 882 10.90% 8,089
Van Wert 1,452 32.72% 1,264 28.49% 375 8.45% 350 7.89% 720 16.23% 157 3.54% 119 2.68% 188 4.24% 4,437
Vinton 478 38.36% 346 27.95% 109 8.80% 134 10.82% 121 9.77% 33 2.67% 17 1.37% 132 10.66% 1,238
Warren 10,322 36.78% 6,513 23.21% 5,947 21.19% 3,015 10.74% 1,624 5.79% 394 1.40% 252 0.90% 3,809 13.57% 28,067
Washington 2,466 36.50% 1,713 25.35% 876 12.96% 516 7.64% 973 14.40% 144 2.13% 69 1.02% 753 11.14% 6,757
Wayne 4,037 29.39% 4,046 29.46% 3,045 22.17% 1,086 7.91% 773 5.63% 641 4.67% 107 0.78% -9 -0.07% 13,735
Williams 1,804 36.31% 1,092 21.98% 691 13.91% 759 15.28% 268 5.39% 296 5.96% 58 1.17% 712 14.33% 4,968
Wood 3,736 31.79% 2,136 18.18% 3,155 26.85% 1,870 15.91% 476 4.05% 301 2.56% 78 0.66% 581 4.94% 11,752
Wyandot 870 29.46% 763 25.84% 504 17.07% 559 18.93% 127 4.30% 79 2.68% 51 1.73% 107 3.62% 2,953

Democratic primary

[edit]
2022 United States Senate election in Ohio Democratic Primary
3 May 2022
Turnout517,497 votes
 
Candidate Tim Ryan Morgan Harper Traci Johnson
Popular vote 359,941 92,347 65,209
Percentage 69.55% 17.84% 12.6%
Results by county:
  Ryan
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Ran in primary

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]
  • Demar Sheffey, treasurer of the Cuyahoga Soil and Water Conservation District[103][23]
  • Rick Taylor[104][23]
  • LaShondra Tinsley, former case manager for Franklin County Jobs and Family Services[23][14]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Tim Ryan
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. governors
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Morgan
Harper 		Traci
Johnson 		Tim
Ryan 		Other Undecided
University of Akron February 17 – March 15, 2022 – (LV) – 18% – 43% 4% 37%
Emerson College February 25–26, 2022 313 (LV) ± 5.5% 4% 9% 31% 5%[j] 51%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Amy
Acton 		Tim
Ryan 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H] March 15–16, 2021 787 (LV) ± 3.5% 37% 32% 31%

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[23][99]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tim Ryan 359,941 69.55%
Democratic Morgan Harper 92,347 17.84%
Democratic Traci Johnson 65,209 12.60%
Total votes 517,497 100.0%


Third-party and independent candidates

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • John Cheng (write-in)[144]
  • Matthew R. Esh (write-in)[144]
  • Stephen Faris, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018 (write-in)[145]
  • Shane Hoffman (write-in)[144]
  • Lashondra Tinsley (write-in)[144]

Disqualified

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Ohio had trended Republican in recent years, voting for Donald Trump by eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. As such, most analysts expected that this seat would easily remain in Republican hands. However, aggregate polling on the run-up to the election indicated a competitive race, and most outlets considered it to be "lean Republican". In the end, JD Vance held the open seat for the Republicans.

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[149] Lean R October 4, 2022
Inside Elections[150] Lean R October 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[151] Lean R August 31, 2022
Politico[152] Lean R September 5, 2022
RCP[153] Lean R September 20, 2022
Fox News[154] Lean R September 20, 2022
DDHQ[155] Likely R November 5, 2022
538[156] Likely R October 7, 2022
The Economist[157] Likely R November 5, 2022

Debates

[edit]
2022 United States Senate general election in Ohio debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
JD Vance Tim Ryan
1 Oct. 10, 2022 Fox 8 Colleen Marshall
Joe Toohey 		YouTube P P
2 Oct. 17, 2022 21 WFMJ Lindsay McCoy
Bertram de Souza
Derek Steyer 		YouTube P P

Endorsements

[edit]
JD Vance (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Tim Ryan (D)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State senators
State representatives
Mayors
County officials
Individuals
Newspapers and other media
Organizations
Labor unions

Polling

[edit]
Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		JD
Vance (R) 		Tim
Ryan (D) 		Undecided
[k] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics October 30 – November 5, 2022 November 7, 2022 51.8% 43.8% 4.4% Vance +8.0
FiveThirtyEight October 17 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 50.9% 44.7% 4.4% Vance +6.2
270towin November 4 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 52.0% 44.2% 3.8% Vance +7.8
Average 51.6% 44.2% 4.2% Vance +7.4
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		JD
Vance (R) 		Tim
Ryan (D) 		Other Undecided
Civiqs November 4–7, 2022 716 (LV) ± 4.1% 51% 46% 2%[l] 2%
Research Co. November 4–6, 2022 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 52% 44% – 4%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022 505 (LV) ± 4.3% 52% 45% 3%[m] –
The Trafalgar Group (R) November 3–5, 2022 1,123 (LV) ± 2.9% 54% 44% – 3%
Data for Progress (D) November 2–5, 2022 1,413 (LV) ± 3.0% 55% 45% – –
Cygnal (R) November 1–3, 2022 1,498 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 43% – 8%
Remington Research Group (R) November 1–2, 2022 1,125 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 43% – 9%
Emerson College October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 43% 2%[n] 4%
53% 44% 3%[o] –
Cygnal (R) October 29 – November 1, 2022 1,520 (LV) ± 2.5% 49% 44% – 7%
Cygnal (R) October 26–30, 2022 1,510 (LV) ± 2.5% 48% 44% – 8%
Cygnal (R) October 24–28, 2022 1,776 (LV) ± 2.3% 48% 43% – 9%
Cygnal (R) October 22–26, 2022 1,817 (LV) ± 2.3% 49% 44% – 8%
Cygnal (R) October 20–24, 2022 1,886 (LV) ± 2.3% 48% 44% – 8%
Baldwin Wallace University October 20–23, 2022 1,068 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 50% – 4%
Cygnal (R) October 18–22, 2022 1,547 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 43% – 10%
Marist College October 17–20, 2022 1,141 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 45% 1%[p] 8%
942 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 47% 1%[q] 5%
Cygnal (R) October 16–20, 2022 1,540 (LV) ± 2.5% 47% 44% – 9%
Siena College October 14–19, 2022 644 (LV) ± 5.1% 46% 46% 3%[r] 6%
Cygnal (R) October 14–18, 2022 1,438 (LV) ± 2.6% 47% 43% – 10%
Ohio Northern University/Lucid October 11–15, 2022 668 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 43% 1%[s] 15%
Suffolk University October 11–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 45% 1%[t] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 10–12, 2022 1,081 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 44% – 9%
Data for Progress (D) October 7–12, 2022 1,016 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% – 5%
Cygnal (R)[I] October 6–8, 2022 640 (LV) – 46% 44% – 9%
Emerson College October 6–7, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 45% 1%[u] 9%
Kurt Jetta (D)[J] October 2–3, 2022 950 (RV) ± 3.5% 35% 43% – 22%
528 (LV) 38% 49% – 14%
Siena College September 18–22, 2022 642 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 46% 2%[v] 9%
Baldwin Wallace University September 12–15, 2022 855 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 48% – 7%
Marist College September 12–15, 2022 1,200 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 45% – 9%
1,009 (LV) ± 3.9% 48% 47% – 5%
Emerson College September 10–13, 2022 1000 (LV) ± 3.0% 44% 40% 3% 13%
Civiqs September 10–13, 2022 780 (LV) ± 4% 48% 45% 3% 4%
Fallon Research September 6–11, 2022 600 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 46% 1% 10%
Suffolk University September 5–7, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 47% 1% 6%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 831 (LV) ± 4.3% 39% 45% – 15%
Impact Research (D)[K] August 17–23, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 50% – 3%
The Trafalgar Group (R) August 16–19, 2022 1,087 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 45% – 6%
Emerson College August 15–16, 2022 925 (LV) ± 3.2% 45% 42% 4% 10%
Kurt Jetta (D)[J] August 1–3, 2022 1,180 (A) ± 2.9% 32% 42% – 26%
974 (RV) ± 3.1% 33% 44% – 23%
516 (LV) ± 4.3% 38% 49% – 12%
Impact Research (D)[K] July 21–28, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 48% – 7%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[L] July 22–24, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 38% 44% 3% 15%
Grow Progress (D)[M] July 5–10, 2022 2,032 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 46% – 13%
Kurt Jetta (D)[J] July 1–3, 2022 1,199 (A) ± 2.8% 36% 41% – 23%
989 (RV) ± 3.1% 37% 44% – 20%
528 (LV) ± 4.3% 43% 46% – 11%
Impact Research (D)[K] June 27–30, 2022 816 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 48% – 6%
Grow Progress (D)[M] May 30 – June 3, 2022 2,018 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 44% – 15%
Suffolk University May 22–24, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 39% 2% 17%
Momentive (D)[J] May 13, 2022 1,174 (A) ± 2.9% 37% 37% – 25%
989 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 39% – 21%
528 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 43% – 9%
Grow Progress (D)[M] April 25–29, 2022 2,014 (RV) ± 2.5% 41% 43% – 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 36% 3% 24%
1,160 (LV) ± 2.9% 36% 37% 3% 23%
Public Policy Polling (D)[H] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 39% 37% – 24%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Mandel vs. Amy Acton
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Mandel (R) 		Amy
Acton (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 41% 42% 17%
Josh Mandel vs. Tim Ryan
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Mandel (R) 		Tim
Ryan (D) 		Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 38% 36% 4% 18%
1,160 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 37% 4% 17%
Public Policy Polling (D)[H] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 42% 38% – 20%
Jane Timken vs. Amy Acton
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Jane
Timken (R) 		Amy
Acton (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 40% 40% 20%
Jane Timken vs. Tim Ryan
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Jane
Timken (R) 		Tim
Ryan (D) 		Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 20–24, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 33% 36% 4% 23%
1,160 (LV) ± 2.9% 36% 38% 4% 22%
Public Policy Polling (D)[H] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 41% 38% – 21%
JD Vance vs. Amy Acton
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		JD
Vance (R) 		Amy
Acton (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[H] March 18–19, 2021 700 (V) ± 3.7% 38% 40% 22%

Results

[edit]
2022 United States Senate election in Ohio[99]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican JD Vance 2,192,114 53.04% −4.99%
Democratic Tim Ryan 1,939,489 46.92% +9.76%
Write-in 1,739 0.04% N/A
Total votes 4,133,342 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

By county

[edit]
County JD Vance
Republican 		Tim Ryan
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 6,749 77.34% 1,976 22.64% 1 0.01% 4,773 54.70% 8,726
Allen 23,229 71.02% 9,428 28.83% 49 0.15% 13,801 42.19% 32,706
Ashland 13,366 72.61% 5,034 27.35% 9 0.05% 8,332 45.26% 18,409
Ashtabula 18,277 59.14% 12,561 40.64% 69 0.22% 5,716 18.50% 30,907
Athens 7,482 39.18% 11,578 60.62% 38 0.20% -4,096 -21.44% 19,098
Auglaize 15,022 80.37% 3,641 19.48% 28 0.15% 11,381 60.89% 18,691
Belmont 15,169 67.25% 7,356 32.61% 31 0.14% 7,813 34.64% 22,556
Brown 10,832 76.62% 3,300 23.34% 5 0.04% 7,532 53.28% 14,137
Butler 79,240 61.88% 48,777 38.09% 35 0.03% 30,463 23.79% 128,052
Carroll 7,372 72.70% 2,743 27.05% 25 0.25% 4,629 45.65% 10,140
Champaign 10,253 71.03% 4,095 28.37% 87 0.60% 6,158 42.66% 14,435
Clark 27,131 61.10% 17,141 38.60% 130 0.30% 9,990 22.50% 44,402
Clermont 52,888 65.97% 27,084 33.78% 194 0.24% 25,804 32.19% 80,166
Clinton 10,515 74.59% 3,562 25.27% 21 0.15% 6,953 49.32% 14,098
Columbiana 24,829 69.77% 10,705 30.08% 51 0.14% 14,124 39.69% 35,585
Coshocton 8,021 70.97% 3,255 28.80% 26 0.23% 4,766 42.17% 11,302
Crawford 10,855 73.18% 3,948 26.61% 31 0.21% 6,907 46.57% 14,834
Cuyahoga 131,427 32.12% 277,039 67.70% 750 0.18% -145,612 -35.58% 409,216
Darke 15,977 80.76% 3,773 19.07% 33 0.17% 12,204 61.69% 19,783
Defiance 8,821 66.03% 4,513 33.78% 25 0.19% 4,308 32.25% 13,359
Delaware 52,540 53.13% 46,319 46.84% 27 0.03% 6,221 6.29% 98,886
Erie 15,287 52.93% 13,541 46.89% 51 0.18% 1,746 6.04% 28,879
Fairfield 35,926 60.63% 23,305 39.33% 27 0.05% 12,621 21.30% 59,258
Fayette 6,287 74.76% 2,102 24.99% 21 0.25% 4,185 49.77% 8,410
Franklin 143,263 33.64% 281,505 66.10% 1,134 0.27% -138,242 -32.46% 425,902
Fulton 10,906 67.18% 5,299 32.64% 28 0.17% 5,607 34.54% 16,233
Gallia 6,993 76.68% 2,116 23.20% 11 0.12% 4,877 53.48% 9,120
Geauga 25,332 59.24% 17,348 40.57% 81 0.19% 7,984 18.67% 42,761
Greene 39,385 59.51% 26,751 40.42% 43 0.06% 12,634 19.09% 66,179
Guernsey 8,678 71.18% 3,505 28.75% 9 0.07% 5,173 42.43% 12,192
Hamilton 127,792 42.25% 174,511 57.69% 183 0.06% -46,719 -15.44% 302,486
Hancock 18,357 67.77% 8,717 32.18% 14 0.05% 9,640 35.59% 27,088
Hardin 6,521 72.48% 2,471 27.46% 5 0.06% 4,050 45.02% 8,997
Harrison 3,721 71.78% 1,451 27.99% 12 0.23% 2,270 43.79% 5,184
Henry 7,102 68.94% 3,190 30.96% 10 0.10% 3,912 37.98% 10,302
Highland 10,185 77.68% 2,925 22.31% 2 0.02% 7,260 55.37% 13,112
Hocking 6,353 66.80% 3,139 33.00% 19 0.20% 3,214 33.80% 9,511
Holmes 7,056 81.82% 1,564 18.14% 4 0.05% 5,492 63.68% 8,624
Huron 12,398 67.24% 5,998 32.53% 42 0.23% 6,400 34.71% 18,438
Jackson 6,599 74.17% 2,285 25.68% 13 0.15% 4,314 48.49% 8,897
Jefferson 14,970 65.32% 7,914 34.53% 34 0.15% 7,056 30.79% 22,918
Knox 16,104 69.70% 6,969 30.16% 31 0.13% 9,135 39.54% 23,104
Lake 50,890 54.02% 43,166 45.82% 158 0.17% 7,724 8.20% 94,214
Lawrence 12,697 72.51% 4,793 27.37% 21 0.12% 7,904 45.14% 17,511
Licking 41,566 62.51% 24,774 37.26% 154 0.23% 16,792 25.25% 66,494
Logan 12,551 76.15% 3,898 23.65% 32 0.19% 8,653 52.50% 16,481
Lorain 54,488 48.70% 57,191 51.11% 209 0.19% -2,703 -2.41% 111,888
Lucas 53,009 40.09% 78,727 59.54% 480 0.36% -25,718 -19.45% 132,216
Madison 9,763 69.01% 4,350 30.75% 35 0.25% 5,413 38.26% 14,148
Mahoning 44,397 51.64% 41,421 48.18% 151 0.18% 2,976 3.46% 85,969
Marion 12,760 66.65% 6,342 33.12% 44 0.23% 6,418 33.53% 19,146
Medina 45,960 58.86% 31,979 40.95% 145 0.19% 13,981 17.91% 78,084
Meigs 5,589 74.84% 1,875 25.11% 4 0.05% 3,714 49.73% 7,468
Mercer 14,390 80.84% 3,389 19.04% 21 0.12% 11,001 61.80% 17,800
Miami 30,114 71.35% 11,993 28.42% 99 0.23% 18,121 42.93% 42,206
Monroe 3,479 71.48% 1,378 28.31% 10 0.21% 2,101 43.17% 4,867
Montgomery 91,382 49.04% 94,512 50.72% 460 0.25% -3,130 -1.68% 186,354
Morgan 3,494 72.52% 1,317 27.33% 7 0.15% 2,177 45.19% 4,818
Morrow 9,985 75.04% 3,303 24.82% 18 0.14% 6,682 50.22% 13,306
Muskingum 18,664 68.28% 8,638 31.60% 34 0.12% 10,026 36.68% 27,336
Noble 3,519 76.30% 1,083 23.48% 10 0.22% 2,436 52.82% 4,612
Ottawa 10,653 57.80% 7,750 42.05% 27 0.15% 2,903 15.75% 18,430
Paulding 4,873 75.31% 1,587 24.52% 11 0.17% 3,286 50.79% 6,471
Perry 8,557 71.70% 3,342 28.00% 36 0.30% 5,215 43.70% 11,935
Pickaway 13,859 70.72% 5,696 29.07% 41 0.21% 8,163 41.65% 19,596
Pike 5,488 70.21% 2,327 29.77% 2 0.03% 3,161 40.44% 7,817
Portage 32,274 53.29% 28,175 46.52% 114 0.19% 4,099 6.77% 60,563
Preble 12,156 77.22% 3,533 22.44% 54 0.34% 8,623 54.78% 15,743
Putnam 12,332 82.09% 2,667 17.75% 24 0.16% 9,665 64.34% 15,023
Richland 28,812 69.04% 12,904 30.92% 16 0.04% 15,908 38.12% 41,732
Ross 14,728 65.06% 7,858 34.71% 52 0.23% 6,870 30.35% 22,638
Sandusky 13,076 61.27% 8,177 38.31% 90 0.42% 4,899 22.96% 21,343
Scioto 14,656 69.56% 6,411 30.43% 4 0.02% 8,245 39.13% 21,071
Seneca 11,618 64.58% 6,322 35.14% 51 0.28% 5,296 29.44% 17,991
Shelby 14,512 80.32% 3,509 19.42% 47 0.26% 11,003 60.90% 18,068
Stark 77,287 57.87% 56,215 42.09% 44 0.03% 21,072 15.78% 133,546
Summit 86,724 43.31% 113,112 56.49% 415 0.21% -26,388 -13.18% 200,251
Trumbull 39,082 53.46% 33,890 46.36% 132 0.18% 5,192 7.10% 73,104
Tuscarawas 20,072 66.01% 10,267 33.77% 67 0.22% 9,805 32.24% 30,406
Union 16,320 64.16% 9,075 35.67% 43 0.17% 7,245 28.49% 25,438
Van Wert 7,959 78.49% 2,176 21.46% 5 0.05% 5,783 57.03% 10,140
Vinton 2,986 74.28% 1,028 25.57% 6 0.15% 1,958 48.71% 4,020
Warren 65,370 64.38% 35,970 35.43% 196 0.19% 29,400 28.95% 101,536
Washington 15,812 69.50% 6,938 30.50% 1 0.00% 8,874 39.00% 22,751
Wayne 25,599 66.58% 12,832 33.37% 19 0.05% 12,767 33.21% 38,450
Williams 8,935 69.57% 3,903 30.39% 5 0.04% 5,032 39.18% 12,843
Wood 24,854 51.62% 23,269 48.33% 25 0.05% 1,585 3.29% 48,148
Wyandot 5,811 71.93% 2,255 27.91% 13 0.16% 3,556 44.02% 8,079
Totals 2,192,312 52.97% 1,939,751 46.86% 7,071 0.17% 252,561 6.11% 4,139,134
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Vance won 10 of 15 congressional districts.[199]

District Vance Ryan Representative
1st 46% 54% Steve Chabot (117th Congress)
Greg Landsman (118th Congress)
2nd 70% 30% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 28% 72% Joyce Beatty
4th 66% 34% Jim Jordan
5th 62% 38% Bob Latta
6th 62% 38% Bill Johnson
7th 52% 48% Bob Gibbs / Anthony Gonzalez (117th Congress)
Max Miller (118th Congress)
8th 62% 38% Warren Davidson
9th 49.8% 50.2% Marcy Kaptur
10th 51% 49% Mike Turner
11th 21% 79% Shontel Brown
12th 64% 36% Troy Balderson
13th 47% 53% Tim Ryan (117th Congress)
Emilia Sykes (118th Congress)
14th 55% 45% David Joyce
15th 52% 48% Mike Carey

Voter demographics

[edit]

According to exit polls by the National Election Pool, Vance won the election (53% to 47%), winning majority of white voters (59% to 40%), while Ryan received majorities of the Black vote (86% to 13%) and, to smaller extent, the Latino vote (59% to 41%).[200]

National election pool
Demographic subgroup Ryan Vance No
answer 		% of
voters
Gender
Men 41 58 1 52
Women 53 47 N/A 48
Age
18–24 years old 59 41 N/A 4
25–29 years old 59 40 1 6
30–39 years old 54 45 1 12
40–49 years old 47 53 1 16
50–64 years old 42 58 N/A 31
65 and older 44 55 1 31
Race
White 40 59 1 83
Black 86 13 1 12
Latino 59 41 N/A 2
Race by gender
White men 35 64 1 44
White women 46 53 1 39
Black men 83 15 2 6
Black women 88 11 N/A 6
Education
High school or less 36 64 N/A 17
Some college education 46 53 1 25
Associate degree 44 55 1 15
Bachelor's degree 49 51 N/A 25
Advanced degree 57 43 N/A 17
Party ID
Democrats 97 3 N/A 30
Republicans 8 92 N/A 41
Independents 50 49 1 29
Ideology
Liberals 95 4 1 20
Moderates 56 43 1 42
Conservatives 11 89 N/A 38
Marital status
Married 47 53 N/A 64
Unmarried 54 45 1 36
Gender by marital status
Married men 38 62 N/A 31
Married women 55 45 N/A 33
Unmarried men 45 53 2 18
Unmarried women 63 37 N/A 17
Union household
Yes 56 43 1 21
No 44 55 1 79
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 48 52 N/A 9
No 47 53 N/A 91
Most important issue facing the country
Crime 41 59 N/A 8
Inflation 25 75 N/A 35
Gun policy 54 43 3 16
Immigration 12 88 N/A 9
Abortion 81 19 N/A 26
Area type
Urban 58 42 N/A 33
Suburban 41 58 1 51
Rural 42 57 1 16
Region
Cleveland Area 68 31 1 12
North 44 55 1 20
West 35 65 N/A 16
Columbus Area 60 40 N/A 19
Cincinnati/Dayton Area 41 58 1 20
Ohio Valley 35 65 N/A 13
Source: CBS News[201]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Patel and Pukita with 2%
  4. ^ Pukita with 2%; Graham and Patel with 1%
  5. ^ Patel and Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  6. ^ Pukita with 2%, Patel with 1%
  7. ^ Patel with 2%, Pukita with 1%, "Other" (volunteered response) with <1%
  8. ^ Graham with 3%; Patel with 1%; Pukita with 0%
  9. ^ Someone else with 9%, Pukita with 1%
  10. ^ Tinsley with 5%
  11. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  13. ^ "All others" with 3%
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  15. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  16. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  17. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  18. ^ "Not going to vote" with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  19. ^ "Other" with 1%
  20. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  22. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k This poll was sponsored by Protect Ohio Values PAC, which supports Vance
  2. ^ a b c d e f This poll was sponsored by Mandel's campaign
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h This poll was sponsored by Timken's campaign
  4. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Gibbons's campaign
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by Moreno's campaign
  6. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action, which endorsed Mandel
  7. ^ This poll was sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  8. ^ a b c d e f g This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Amy Acton
  9. ^ This poll was sponsored by American Greatness
  10. ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which opposes Vance
  11. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Ryan's campaign
  12. ^ This poll was conducted for John Bolton Super PAC
  13. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Innovation Ohio

References

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Official campaign websites
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