2024 United States presidential election in California
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Elections in California |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in California is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] California voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College, the most in the country.[2]
The most populous state in the Union and one of the most Democratic, California is a deeply blue state today and has voted Democratic in every presidential election starting in 1992. It has done so by double digits in each of them excluding 2004, when John Kerry won it by 9.95%. It is thus expected that California will continue its streak, with Vice President Kamala Harris – a native Californian who served as the state's Attorney General from 2011 to 2017 and later represented it in the U.S. Senate from 2017 to 2021 before assuming the vice presidency – being the Democratic nominee for president. Harris is the first Californian to appear on a major party presidential ticket since Ronald Reagan in 1984; if elected, she will be the fourth president from California after Herbert Hoover, Richard Nixon, and Reagan, as well as the first Californian and Western Democrat to do so.[a][3][4]
In April 2024, the American Independent Party of California nominated independent candidate, environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (who resides in the state) as its presidential nominee, despite not seeking the party's nomination.[5]
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The California Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won all 424 pledged delegates with nearly 90% of the vote, the largest share of delegates awarded by any contest in the 2024 primaries.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 3,207,687 | 89.1% | 424 | 424 | |
Marianne Williamson | 146,356 | 4.1% | |||
Dean Phillips | 100,284 | 2.8% | |||
Armando Perez-Serrato | 43,105 | 1.2% | |||
Gabriel Cornejo | 41,390 | 1.2% | |||
"President" R. Boddie | 25,455 | 0.7% | |||
Stephen P. Lyons | 21,062 | 0.6% | |||
Eban Cambridge | 12,758 | 0.3% | |||
Total (including write-ins): | 3,598,126 | 100.00% | 424 | 73 | 497 |
Republican primary
[edit]The California Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 60 points and earning all 169 delegates.
The state was the site of the second Republican primary debate, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on September 27, 2023.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 1,962,905 | 79.25% | 169 | 0 | 169 |
Nikki Haley | 431,876 | 17.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 35,717 | 1.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 20,210 | 0.82% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 11,113 | 0.45% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rachel Swift | 4,253 | 0.17% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
David Stuckenberg | 3,909 | 0.16% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 3,577 | 0.14% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 3,336 | 0.13% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total: | 2,476,896 | 100.00% | 169 | 0 | 169 |
Libertarian primary
[edit]Charles Ballay was the only candidate to qualify for the Libertarian Party primary ballot.[11] Chase Oliver later qualified as a write-in candidate.[12]
Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
---|---|---|
Charles Ballay | 21,906 | 98.6% |
Chase Oliver (write-in) | 313 | 1.4% |
Total: | 22,219 | 100.0% |
Green primary
[edit]Jill Stein, the Green Party's nominee for president in 2012 and 2016, was the only candidate on the California primary ballot, although she was followed by three write-in candidates.[11][12] Stein won the primary and earned all 59 of the state's delegates.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Jill Stein | 15,801 | 99.96% | 59 |
Matthew Pruden (write-in) | 3 | 0.02% | |
Jorge Zavala (write-in) | 3 | 0.02% | |
Davi (write-in) | 1 | 0.00% | |
Total: | 15,808 | 100.0% | 59 |
Peace and Freedom primary
[edit]Three candidates successfully achieved ballot access in the Peace and Freedom Party non-binding presidential primary: Claudia de la Cruz, the nominee for the Party for Socialism and Liberation; Cornel West, who is running an independent campaign after withdrawing from the Green nomination; and Jasmine Sherman.[14] The party's presidential nominee will be chosen by the state central committee in August.[15]
Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
---|---|---|
Claudia de la Cruz | 6,430 | 47.0% |
Cornel West | 5,455 | 39.9% |
Jasmine Sherman | 1,795 | 13.1% |
Total: | 13,680 | 100.0% |
American Independent Party
[edit]The sole candidate of the American Independent Party primary was James Bradley, who was simultaneously running for the U.S. Senate as a Republican in the blanket primary held on the same day.[11][16] Andrew George Rummel also qualified as an official write-in candidate.[12]
Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
---|---|---|
James Bradley | 45,565 | 99.96% |
Andrew George Rummel (write-in) | 16 | 0.04% |
Total: | 45,581 | 100.0% |
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]In California, six political parties have qualified for ballot access in the 2024 election. On August 29, 2024, California secretary of state Shirley Weber published the certified list of candidates for the general election:[17]
- Kamala Harris / Tim Walz — Democratic
- Donald Trump / JD Vance — Republican
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan — American Independent[b]
- Jill Stein / Butch Ware — Green
- Chase Oliver / Mike ter Maat — Libertarian
- Claudia De la Cruz / Karina Garcia — Peace and Freedom[c]
Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[18] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections[19] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[21] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis[22] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
CNN[23] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
The Economist[24] | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
538[25] | Solid D | June 11, 2024 |
RCP[26] | Solid D | June 26, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ActiVote[27] | August 22 – September 21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 64% | 36% | – |
Emerson College[28] | September 3–5, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 60% | 36% | 4% |
61%[e] | 38% | 1%[f] | ||||
ActiVote[29] | August 2–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 65% | 35% | – |
UC Berkeley IGS[30] | July 31 – August 11, 2024 | 3,765 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 59% | 34% | 7% |
Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[31][A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 38% | 15% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Capitol Weekly[32] | August 23–26, 2024 | 3,154 (LV) | – | 58% | 36% | 4% | 0% | 2% | – | – |
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||||||
Capitol Weekly[33] | August 13–15, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | – | 57% | 37% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | – |
Capitol Weekly[34] | July 25–27, 2024 | 1,904 (LV) | – | 59% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 2% | – | – |
Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||||||
Capitol Weekly[35] | July 19–22, 2024 | 2,121 (LV) | – | 54% | 33% | 7% | 0% | 4% | – | 2%[g] |
Capitol Weekly[36] | July 12–14, 2024 | 1,044 (LV) | – | 54% | 35% | 7% | 0% | 3% | – | 2%[g] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
Public Policy Institute of California[37] | June 24 – July 2, 2024 | 1,261 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 30% | 15%[h] |
Public Policy Institute of California[38] | May 23 – June 2, 2024 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 31% | 14%[i] |
Public Policy Institute of California[39] | March 19–25, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 31% | 14% |
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[40][A] | February 24–27, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 35% | 8% |
UC Berkeley IGS[41] | February 22–26, 2024 | 6,536 (LV) | ± 1.5% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[42][A] | February 16–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 33% | 12% |
Public Policy Institute of California[43] | February 6–14, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 32% | 13% |
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[44][A] | January 11–14, 2024 | 1,087 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 34% | 12% |
UC Berkeley IGS[45] | January 1–4, 2024 | 4,471 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 56% | 37% | 19% |
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[31][A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
Public Policy Institute of California[46] | November 9–16, 2023 | 1,113 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 54% | 30% | 16% |
UC Berkeley IGS[47] | October 24–30, 2023 | 4,506 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 31% | 23% |
Public Policy Institute of California[48] | October 3–19, 2023 | 1,377 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 60% | 29% | 12% |
Data Viewpoint[49] | October 1, 2023 | 533 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 67% | 33% | – |
Public Policy Institute of California[50] | August 25 – September 5, 2023 | 1,146 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 57% | 26% | 17% |
UC Berkeley IGS[51] | August 24–29, 2023 | 6,030 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 51% | 31% | 18% |
Public Policy Institute of California[52] | June 7–29, 2023 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 57% | 31% | 12% |
Public Policy Institute of California[53] | May 17–24, 2023 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 58% | 25% | 17% |
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times[54] | February 14–20, 2023 | 5,149 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 59% | 29% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Capitol Weekly[32] | August 23–26, 2024 | 3,154 (LV) | – | 52% | 35% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 5%[g] |
Capitol Weekly[33] | August 13–15, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | – | 51% | 36% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 5%[j] |
Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||||
Capitol Weekly[35] | July 19–22, 2024 | 2,121 (LV) | – | 52% | 35% | 6% | 0% | 4% | 3%[k] |
Capitol Weekly[36] | July 12–14, 2024 | 1,044 (LV) | – | 51% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 5% | 5%[l] |
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[40][A] | February 24–27, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 32% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 8% |
UC Berkeley IGS[41] | February 22–26, 2024 | 6,536 (LV) | ± 1.5% | 40% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 16% |
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[42][A] | February 16–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[44][A] | January 11–14, 2024 | 1,087 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 32% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
UC Berkeley IGS[45] | January 1–4, 2024 | 4,471 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[31][A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 15% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||||
UC Berkeley IGS[47] | October 24–30, 2023 | 4,506 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 29% | 9% | 4% | 15% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times[54] | February 14–20, 2023 | 5,149 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 56% | 34% | 10% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Viewpoint[49] | October 1, 2023 | 533 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 58% | 42% | – |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College/Inside California Elections[31][A] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 35% | 13% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Probolsky Research[55] | August 4–9, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 55% | 38% | 7% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | |||||
Republican | |||||
Libertarian | |||||
Green | |||||
Peace and Freedom |
|
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American Independent |
|
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Write-in | |||||
Total votes |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in California
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Although Barack Obama was born and raised in Hawaii, he would later reside in Illinois, where his political career would have taken place.
- ^ a b Kennedy suspended his campaign on August 23, after the deadline ballot access had passed, and thus will remain on the ballot.
- ^ a b De la Cruz and Garcia are affiliated with the Party for Socialism and Liberation on a national level.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b c De la Cruz (PSL) with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 11%
- ^ "Someone else" with 13%
- ^ De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%
- ^ De la Cruz (PSL) with 3%
- ^ De la Cruz (PSL) with 4%
References
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