2024 United States presidential election in California
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| Turnout | 71.43% (of registered voters)  9.24 pp 59.97% (of eligible voters) 10.91 pp[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in California |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in California was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] California voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. California has 54 electoral votes in the Electoral College, the most in the country.[3]
The most populous state in the union, California is considered a strong blue state, having voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. In these contests, it has supported Democratic candidates by double digits in each of them except for 2004, when John Kerry won it by 9.95 points. It was widely expected that California voters would continue to vote in this fashion, particularly with Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee; Harris was a native Californian who served as the state's attorney general from 2011 to 2017 and later represented it in the U.S. Senate from 2017 to 2021 before assuming the vice presidency. Harris was the first Californian to appear on a major party presidential ticket since Ronald Reagan in 1984.
In the election Harris indeed carried California by just over 20 points with more than 9.2 million votes. Nevertheless, her margin was noticeably smaller than Joe Biden's 29-point win in 2020, a trend observed in other blue states such as Massachusetts, New York and Illinois, all of which witnessed a decline in Democratic voter turnout.[4] Harris's performance in California was the worst for a Democratic candidate since 2004; she was also the first Democratic candidate since 2004 not to receive at least 60% of the vote.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The California Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won all 424 pledged delegates with nearly 90% of the vote, the largest share of delegates awarded by any contest in the 2024 primaries.
- 80–90%
- >90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 3,207,687 | 89.1% | 424 | 424 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 146,356 | 4.1% | |||
| Dean Phillips | 100,284 | 2.8% | |||
| Armando Perez-Serrato | 43,105 | 1.2% | |||
| Gabriel Cornejo | 41,390 | 1.2% | |||
| "President" R. Boddie | 25,455 | 0.7% | |||
| Stephen P. Lyons | 21,062 | 0.6% | |||
| Eban Cambridge | 12,758 | 0.3% | |||
| Total (including write-ins): | 3,598,126 | 100.00% | 424 | 73 | 497 |
The electors of the Democratic Party are chosen by the candidates who received the most votes in the primary election in their respective congressional district.[7]
Republican primary
[edit]The California Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 60 points and earning all 169 delegates.
The state was the site of the second Republican primary debate, held at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on September 27, 2023.
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 1,962,905 | 79.25% | 169 | 0 | 169 |
| Nikki Haley | 431,876 | 17.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 35,717 | 1.44% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 20,210 | 0.82% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 11,113 | 0.45% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rachel Swift | 4,253 | 0.17% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Stuckenberg | 3,909 | 0.16% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 3,577 | 0.14% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) | 3,336 | 0.13% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 2,476,896 | 100.00% | 169 | 0 | 169 |
The electors of the Republican Party are their nominees for the main offices of the State of California and for Senator at the last two elections, as well as their leaders in the state legislature and party committee.[7]
Libertarian primary
[edit]Charles Ballay was the only candidate to qualify for the Libertarian Party primary ballot.[11] Chase Oliver later qualified as a write-in candidate.[12]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Charles Ballay | 21,906 | 98.6% |
| Chase Oliver (write-in) | 313 | 1.4% |
| Total: | 22,219 | 100.0% |
Th electors of the Libertarian party were elected by the state party convention.[7]
Green primary
[edit]Jill Stein, the Green Party's nominee for president in 2012 and 2016, was the only candidate on the California primary ballot, although she was followed by three write-in candidates.[11][12] Stein won the primary and earned all 59 of the state's delegates.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jill Stein | 15,801 | 99.96% | 59 |
| Matthew Pruden (write-in) | 3 | 0.02% | |
| Jorge Zavala (write-in) | 3 | 0.02% | |
| Davi (write-in) | 1 | 0.00% | |
| Total: | 15,808 | 100.0% | 59 |
Peace and Freedom primary
[edit]
- 100%80–85%75–80%70–75%65–70%60–65%55–60%50–55%45–50%40–45%35–40%
- 100%65–70%60–65%55–60%50–55%45–50%40–45%35–40%
- 45–50%40–45%35–40%
- 50%
- 35–40%
- No votes
Three candidates successfully achieved ballot access in the Peace and Freedom Party non-binding presidential primary: Claudia de la Cruz, the nominee for the Party for Socialism and Liberation; Cornel West, who is running an independent campaign after withdrawing from the Green nomination; and Jasmine Sherman.[14] The party's presidential nominee will be chosen by the state central committee in August.[15]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| Claudia de la Cruz | 6,430 | 47.0% |
| Cornel West | 5,455 | 39.9% |
| Jasmine Sherman | 1,795 | 13.1% |
| Total: | 13,680 | 100.0% |
American Independent Party
[edit]The sole candidate of the American Independent Party primary was James Bradley, who was simultaneously running for the U.S. Senate as a Republican in the blanket primary held on the same day.[11][16] Andrew George Rummel also qualified as an official write-in candidate.[12]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| James Bradley | 45,565 | 99.96% |
| Andrew George Rummel (write-in) | 16 | 0.04% |
| Total: | 45,581 | 100.0% |
General election
[edit]Candidates
[edit]In California, six political parties have qualified for ballot access in the 2024 election. On August 29, 2024, California secretary of state Shirley Weber published the certified list of candidates for the general election:[17]
- Kamala Harris / Tim Walz — Democratic
- Donald Trump / JD Vance — Republican
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan — American Independent[a]
- Jill Stein / Butch Ware — Green
- Chase Oliver / Mike ter Maat — Libertarian
- Claudia De la Cruz / Karina Garcia — Peace and Freedom[b]
Weber's office published the list of write-in candidates on October 25, in which Peter Sonski was the only certified candidate listed, alongside his running mate Lauren Onak.[18]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[19] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[20] | Solid D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] | Safe D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[22] | Safe D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[23] | Solid D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[24] | Solid D | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[25] | Safe D | June 12, 2024 |
| 538[26] | Solid D | June 11, 2024 |
| NBC News[27] | Safe D | October 6, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co.[28] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 64% | 32% | 4% |
| Competitive Edge Research[29] | October 28–30, 2024 | 517 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 53% | 38% | 8%[d] |
| UC Berkeley IGS[30] | October 22–28, 2024 | 4,341 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 57% | 35% | 8% |
| ActiVote[31] | October 7–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 37% | – |
| Rose Institute/YouGov[32] | October 7–17, 2024 | 1,139 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 60% | 33% | 7%[e] |
| 63%[f] | 34% | 3% | ||||
| 1,139 (LV) | 63% | 34% | 3% | |||
| Emerson College[33][A] | October 12–14, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 59% | 35% | 6%[g] |
| 61%[f] | 37% | 2%[g] | ||||
| ActiVote[34] | September 22 – October 10, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63.5% | 36.5% | – |
| ActiVote[35] | August 22 – September 21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 64% | 36% | – |
| Emerson College[36] | September 3–5, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 60% | 36% | 4% |
| 61%[f] | 38% | 1%[h] | ||||
| ActiVote[37] | August 2–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 65% | 35% | – |
| UC Berkeley IGS[38] | July 31 – August 11, 2024 | 3,765 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 59% | 34% | 7% |
| Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[39][B] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 38% | 15% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[40] | October 27–30, 2024 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 31% | 4% | – | 2% | 1% | 7%[i] |
| Public Policy Institute of California[41] | October 7–15, 2024 | 1,137 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 59% | 33% | 3% | – | 1% | 0% | 4%[j] |
| UC Berkeley IGS[42] | September 25 – October 1, 2024 | 3,045 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 57% | 35% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| University of Southern California/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona[43] | September 12–25, 2024 | 1,685 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 58% | 36% | 2% | – | 2% | 0% | 2%[k] |
| Capitol Weekly[44] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,054 (LV) | – | 59% | 34% | 3% | 0% | 2% | – | 2%[i] |
| Capitol Weekly[45] | August 23–26, 2024 | 3,154 (LV) | – | 58% | 36% | 4% | 0% | 2% | – | – |
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||||||
| Capitol Weekly[46] | August 13–15, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | – | 57% | 37% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | – |
| Capitol Weekly[47] | July 25–27, 2024 | 1,904 (LV) | – | 59% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 2% | – | – |
| Kamala Harris declares her candidacy. | ||||||||||
| Capitol Weekly[48] | July 19–22, 2024 | 2,121 (LV) | – | 54% | 33% | 7% | 0% | 4% | – | 2%[i] |
| Capitol Weekly[49] | July 12–14, 2024 | 1,044 (LV) | – | 54% | 35% | 7% | 0% | 3% | – | 2%[i] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| Public Policy Institute of California[50] | June 24 – July 2, 2024 | 1,261 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 30% | 15%[l] |
| Public Policy Institute of California[51] | May 23 – June 2, 2024 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 31% | 14%[m] |
| The Bullfinch Group[52][C] | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 59% | 34% | 7% |
| John Zogby Strategies[53][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 740 (LV) | – | 56% | 38% | 6% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[54] | March 19–25, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 31% | 14% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[55] | February 29 – March 3, 2024 | 740 (RV) | – | 54% | 36% | 10%[n] |
| 692 (LV) | 56% | 37% | 7%[o] | |||
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[56][B] | February 24–27, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 35% | 8% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[57] | February 22–26, 2024 | 6,536 (LV) | ± 1.5% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[58][B] | February 16–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 33% | 12% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[59] | February 6–13, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 32% | 13% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[60][B] | January 11–14, 2024 | 1,087 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 34% | 12% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[61] | January 1–4, 2024 | 4,471 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 56% | 37% | 19% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[39][B] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[62] | November 9–16, 2023 | 1,113 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 54% | 30% | 16% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[63] | October 24–30, 2023 | 4,506 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 31% | 23% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[64] | October 3–19, 2023 | 1,377 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 60% | 29% | 12% |
| Data Viewpoint[65] | October 1, 2023 | 533 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 67% | 33% | – |
| Public Policy Institute of California[66] | August 25 – September 5, 2023 | 1,146 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 57% | 26% | 17%[p] |
| UC Berkeley IGS[67] | August 24–29, 2023 | 6,030 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[68] | June 7–29, 2023 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 57% | 31% | 12% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[69][B] | June 4–7, 2023 | 1,056 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 32% | 14% |
| Public Policy Institute of California[70] | May 17–24, 2023 | 1,062 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times[71] | February 14–20, 2023 | 7,512 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 57% | 27% | 16% |
| 5,149 (LV) | 59% | 29% | 12% | |||
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capitol Weekly[44] | September 11–16, 2024 | 1,054 (LV) | – | 51% | 34% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 8%[i] |
| Capitol Weekly[45] | August 23–26, 2024 | 3,154 (LV) | – | 52% | 35% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 5%[i] |
| Capitol Weekly[46] | August 13–15, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | – | 51% | 36% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 5%[j] |
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | |||||||||
| Capitol Weekly[48] | July 19–22, 2024 | 2,121 (LV) | – | 52% | 35% | 6% | 0% | 4% | 3%[q] |
| Capitol Weekly[49] | July 12–14, 2024 | 1,044 (LV) | – | 51% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 5% | 5%[r] |
| The Bullfinch Group[52][C] | April 16–23, 2024 | 250 (RV) | ± 6.2% | 48% | 28% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 8% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[56][B] | February 24–27, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 32% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 8% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[57] | February 22–26, 2024 | 6,536 (LV) | ± 1.5% | 40% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 16% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[58][B] | February 16–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| USC Dornsife/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona[72] | January 21–29, 2024 | 1,416 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 53% | 25% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 9%[s] |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[60][B] | January 11–14, 2024 | 1,087 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 32% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[61] | January 1–4, 2024 | 4,471 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 11% |
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[39][B] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 15% |
| UC Berkeley IGS[63] | October 24–30, 2023 | 4,506 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 43% | 29% | 9% | 4% | – | 15% |
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[53][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 740 (LV) | – | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[53][D] | April 13–21, 2024 | 740 (LV) | – | 47% | 35% | 18% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[69][B] | June 4–7, 2023 | 1,056 (RV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times[71] | February 14–20, 2023 | 7,512 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 54% | 31% | 15% |
| 5,149 (LV) | 56% | 34% | 10% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data Viewpoint[65] | October 1, 2023 | 533 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 58% | 42% | – |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/Inside California Elections[39][B] | November 11–14, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 35% | 13% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probolsky Research[73] | August 4–9, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 55% | 38% | 7% |
Results
[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 9,276,179 | 58.47% | 5.01%
| ||
| Republican | 6,081,697 | 38.33% |  4.01%
| ||
| American Independent |
|
197,645 | 1.25% | 0.91%
| |
| Green | 167,814 | 1.06% | 0.60%
| ||
| Peace and Freedom |
|
72,539 | 0.46% | 0.17%
| |
| Libertarian | 66,662 | 0.42% | 0.65%
| ||
| American Solidarity |
|
2,939 | 0.02% | 0.01%
| |
| Total votes | 15,865,475 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
By county
[edit]| County | Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alameda | 499,551 | 74.57% | 140,789 | 21.02% | 29,567 | 4.41% | 358,762 | 53.55% | 669,907 |
| Alpine | 479 | 64.38% | 243 | 32.66% | 22 | 2.96% | 236 | 31.72% | 744 |
| Amador | 7,783 | 34.55% | 14,018 | 62.22% | 727 | 3.23% | -6,235 | -27.67% | 22,528 |
| Butte | 44,228 | 46.77% | 47,179 | 49.90% | 3,149 | 3.33% | -2,951 | -3.13% | 94,556 |
| Calaveras | 9,181 | 34.67% | 16,625 | 62.78% | 674 | 2.55% | -7,444 | -28.11% | 26,480 |
| Colusa | 2,431 | 34.62% | 4,414 | 62.87% | 176 | 2.51% | -1,983 | -28.25% | 7,021 |
| Contra Costa | 356,008 | 67.30% | 155,308 | 29.36% | 17,671 | 3.34% | 200,700 | 37.94% | 528,987 |
| Del Norte | 4,266 | 40.38% | 5,999 | 56.78% | 300 | 2.84% | -1,733 | -16.40% | 10,565 |
| El Dorado | 47,703 | 42.63% | 61,109 | 54.61% | 3,096 | 2.76% | -13,406 | -11.98% | 111,908 |
| Fresno | 151,628 | 46.50% | 165,924 | 50.89% | 8,497 | 2.61% | -14,296 | -4.39% | 326,049 |
| Glenn | 3,260 | 31.22% | 6,904 | 66.12% | 278 | 2.66% | -3,644 | -34.90% | 10,442 |
| Humboldt | 39,800 | 61.57% | 21,559 | 33.35% | 3,284 | 5.08% | 18,241 | 28.22% | 64,643 |
| Imperial | 26,083 | 48.27% | 26,546 | 49.12% | 1,409 | 2.61% | -463 | -0.85% | 54,038 |
| Inyo | 4,201 | 46.92% | 4,468 | 49.91% | 284 | 3.17% | -267 | -2.99% | 8,953 |
| Kern | 108,241 | 38.21% | 167,879 | 59.26% | 7,164 | 2.53% | -59,638 | -21.05% | 283,284 |
| Kings | 15,519 | 37.39% | 25,074 | 60.41% | 915 | 2.20% | -9,555 | -23.02% | 41,508 |
| Lake | 12,794 | 47.57% | 13,161 | 48.93% | 941 | 3.50% | -367 | -1.36% | 26,896 |
| Lassen | 2,478 | 21.71% | 8,619 | 75.51% | 318 | 2.78% | -6,141 | -53.80% | 11,415 |
| Los Angeles | 2,417,109 | 64.82% | 1,189,862 | 31.91% | 122,118 | 3.27% | 1,227,247 | 32.91% | 3,729,089 |
| Madera | 20,981 | 38.40% | 32,344 | 59.20% | 1,307 | 2.40% | -11,363 | -20.80% | 54,632 |
| Marin | 116,152 | 80.59% | 24,054 | 16.69% | 3,923 | 2.72% | 92,098 | 63.90% | 144,129 |
| Mariposa | 3,622 | 38.09% | 5,625 | 59.15% | 262 | 2.76% | -2,003 | -21.06% | 9,509 |
| Mendocino | 24,049 | 61.32% | 13,528 | 34.49% | 1,642 | 4.19% | 10,521 | 26.83% | 39,219 |
| Merced | 40,190 | 46.35% | 43,955 | 50.70% | 2,558 | 2.95% | -3,765 | -4.35% | 86,703 |
| Modoc | 1,008 | 25.03% | 2,884 | 71.62% | 135 | 3.35% | -1,876 | -46.59% | 4,027 |
| Mono | 3,522 | 58.08% | 2,294 | 37.83% | 248 | 4.09% | 1,228 | 20.25% | 6,064 |
| Monterey | 93,060 | 63.41% | 49,226 | 33.54% | 4,468 | 3.05% | 43,834 | 29.87% | 146,754 |
| Napa | 43,212 | 65.91% | 20,357 | 31.05% | 1,992 | 3.04% | 22,855 | 34.86% | 65,561 |
| Nevada | 33,784 | 54.36% | 26,177 | 42.12% | 2,183 | 3.52% | 7,607 | 12.24% | 62,144 |
| Orange | 691,731 | 49.72% | 654,815 | 47.06% | 44,761 | 3.22% | 36,916 | 2.66% | 1,391,307 |
| Placer | 103,958 | 44.25% | 123,941 | 52.76% | 7,034 | 2.99% | -19,983 | -8.51% | 234,933 |
| Plumas | 4,020 | 39.92% | 5,725 | 56.85% | 325 | 3.23% | -1,705 | -16.93% | 10,070 |
| Riverside | 451,782 | 48.04% | 463,677 | 49.30% | 25,051 | 2.66% | -11,895 | -1.26% | 940,510 |
| Sacramento | 381,564 | 58.10% | 252,140 | 38.39% | 23,043 | 3.51% | 129,424 | 19.71% | 656,747 |
| San Benito | 15,179 | 54.89% | 11,702 | 42.32% | 771 | 2.79% | 3,477 | 12.57% | 27,652 |
| San Bernardino | 362,114 | 47.53% | 378,416 | 49.67% | 21,316 | 2.80% | -16,302 | -2.14% | 761,846 |
| San Diego | 841,372 | 56.93% | 593,270 | 40.14% | 43,386 | 2.93% | 248,102 | 16.79% | 1,478,028 |
| San Francisco | 323,719 | 80.33% | 62,594 | 15.53% | 16,684 | 4.14% | 261,125 | 64.80% | 402,997 |
| San Joaquin | 126,647 | 47.81% | 128,996 | 48.69% | 9,273 | 3.50% | -2,349 | -0.88% | 264,916 |
| San Luis Obispo | 81,314 | 53.92% | 64,932 | 43.05% | 4,566 | 3.03% | 16,382 | 10.87% | 150,812 |
| San Mateo | 242,957 | 73.50% | 76,616 | 23.18% | 10,992 | 3.32% | 166,341 | 50.32% | 330,565 |
| Santa Barbara | 114,149 | 61.47% | 64,870 | 34.93% | 6,670 | 3.60% | 49,279 | 26.54% | 185,689 |
| Santa Clara | 510,744 | 68.04% | 210,924 | 28.10% | 28,938 | 3.86% | 299,820 | 39.94% | 750,606 |
| Santa Cruz | 100,998 | 74.82% | 27,978 | 20.73% | 6,005 | 4.45% | 73,020 | 54.09% | 134,981 |
| Shasta | 27,130 | 30.51% | 59,539 | 66.96% | 2,250 | 2.53% | -32,409 | -36.45% | 88,919 |
| Sierra | 641 | 36.52% | 1,066 | 60.74% | 48 | 2.74% | -425 | -24.22% | 1,755 |
| Siskiyou | 8,329 | 38.74% | 12,461 | 57.96% | 708 | 3.30% | -4,132 | -19.22% | 21,498 |
| Solano | 113,997 | 59.82% | 70,345 | 36.91% | 6,231 | 3.27% | 43,652 | 22.91% | 190,573 |
| Sonoma | 179,600 | 71.42% | 63,426 | 25.22% | 8,439 | 3.36% | 116,174 | 46.20% | 251,465 |
| Stanislaus | 85,347 | 42.98% | 106,986 | 53.88% | 6,225 | 3.14% | -21,639 | -10.90% | 198,558 |
| Sutter | 13,016 | 33.09% | 25,372 | 64.50% | 951 | 2.41% | -12,356 | -31.41% | 39,339 |
| Tehama | 7,415 | 27.94% | 18,503 | 69.72% | 622 | 2.34% | -11,088 | -41.78% | 26,540 |
| Trinity | 2,449 | 43.14% | 2,979 | 52.47% | 249 | 4.39% | -530 | -9.33% | 5,677 |
| Tulare | 53,221 | 38.48% | 81,854 | 59.18% | 3,234 | 2.34% | -28,633 | -20.70% | 138,309 |
| Tuolumne | 10,909 | 37.86% | 17,210 | 59.72% | 697 | 2.42% | -6,301 | -21.86% | 28,816 |
| Ventura | 217,424 | 56.08% | 158,901 | 40.99% | 11,379 | 2.93% | 58,523 | 15.09% | 387,704 |
| Yolo | 61,405 | 66.30% | 27,844 | 30.06% | 3,372 | 3.64% | 33,561 | 36.24% | 92,621 |
| Yuba | 10,725 | 35.66% | 18,491 | 61.49% | 856 | 2.85% | -7,766 | -25.83% | 30,072 |
| Totals | 9,276,179 | 58.45% | 6,081,697 | 38.32% | 513,384 | 3.23% | 3,194,482 | 20.13% | 15,871,260 |
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Butte (largest municipality: Chico)
- Fresno (largest municipality: Fresno)
- Imperial (largest municipality: El Centro)
- Inyo (largest municipality: Bishop)
- Lake (largest municipality: Clearlake)
- Merced (largest municipality: Merced)
- San Bernardino (largest municipality: San Bernardino)
- San Joaquin (largest municipality: Stockton)
- Stanislaus (largest municipality: Modesto)
- Riverside (largest municipality: Riverside)
By congressional district
[edit]Harris won 41 of 52 congressional districts, with the remaining 11 going to Trump, including two that elected Democrats.[75][user-generated source]
Analysis
[edit]Trump flipped 10 counties that were won by Biden in 2020: Butte, Fresno, Imperial, Inyo, Lake, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus. Of these 10, all except Butte and Inyo were also won by Hillary Clinton in 2016. Trump’s wins in Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus marked the first time they voted for a Republican since George W. Bush in 2004, although all are fairly consistently Republican at the state level. Trump's win in Imperial (which is over 80% Hispanic) marked the first time it voted Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988, while his win in Lake marked the first time it voted Republican since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Trump was also the first Republican since George W. Bush in 2004 to win at least 30% in Los Angeles County.
Trump managed to flip four congressional districts, two of which split tickets and elected Democrats. Trump's gains with Hispanics allowed him to cross 40% in Southern California for the first time since 2004, as well as trended the region to the right of the state. Trump’s gains among Hispanics in California also helped improve his margins in the state, also allowing him to carry 12 of the state's 16 Hispanic majority counties.[citation needed]
Despite these results, Harris was able to hold onto historically Republican Orange County by a narrow margin. Harris also won every California county on the West Coast except for Del Norte County. She is also the first Democrat since John Kerry to win California despite carrying a minority of counties, winning 25 out of 58. Whereas Harris underperformed Biden's 2020 total by nearly 2 million, Trump narrowly surpassed his vote total from 2020, solidifying his base of support in the state at just over 6 million votes; this marked his third-highest vote total from any state in the country in 2024, only behind 6.4 million in Texas and 6.1 million in Florida.
The swing in the presidential contest to Republicans in California was accompanied by a swath of conservative down-ballot measure results, as state voters endorsed increasing penalties for certain theft and drug crimes and restricting spending of prescription drug revenues by certain health care providers. Furthermore, Californians rejected lowering the vote needed to approve bonds for housing and infrastructure, eliminating the constitutional provision allowing slavery and involuntary servitude (i.e., prison labor), raising the minimum wage to $18/hour, and repealing the ban (Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995) on local rent controls.
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in California
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 California elections
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b Kennedy suspended his campaign on August 23, after the deadline for ballot access had passed, and thus will remain on the ballot.
- ^ a b De la Cruz and Garcia are affiliated with the Party for Socialism and Liberation on a national level.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ "Other" with 7%
- ^ a b c With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b c d e f Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 2%
- ^ a b Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 1%
- ^ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 11%
- ^ "Someone else" with 13%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 6%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 12%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 3%
- ^ Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 4%
- ^ Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
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