2020 United States presidential election in California

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by 98.116.236.116 (talk) at 19:13, 14 August 2020 (→‎Polling). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in California
← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout%
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



Elections in California
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State government
Executive
Governor
Lieutenant governor
Attorney general
Secretary of state
Treasurer
Controller
Insurance commissioner
Superintendent
Board of equalization
Legislature
Senate
Assembly
Judiciary
Court of appeals
Elections by year
State propositions
1910–1919
1960–1969
1970–1979
1980–1989
1990–1999
2000–2009
2010–2019
2020–2029
Full list
Los Angeles County
Los Angeles County
Board of supervisors
Ballot measures
  • 1980
  • 2008
  • 2012
  • 2016
Elections
Los Angeles
Mayor
City attorney
Ballot measures
  • 1986
  • 2017
Elections
Long Beach
Mayor
Orange County
Orange County
Board of supervisors
District attorney
Anaheim
Mayor
Irvine
Mayor
Costa Mesa
Municipal
Sacramento
Mayor
San Diego County
San Diego County
Board of supervisors
San Diego
Mayor
City attorney
City council
San Francisco
Mayor
District attorney
Board of supervisors
Board of education
Elections
San Jose
Mayor
Other localities
Bakersfield

Mayoral elections:

Fresno

Mayoral elections:

Oakland

Mayoral elections:

Riverside

Mayoral elections:

San Bernardino

Mayoral elections:

Stockton

Mayoral elections:

The 2020 United States presidential election in California is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] California voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of California has 55 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Primary elections

In a departure from previous election cycles, California held its primaries on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.[3] Early voting began several weeks earlier.

Donald Trump secured the Republican nomination on March 17, 2020, defeating several longshot candidates, most notably former Governor Bill Weld. Kamala Harris, the state's junior U.S. Senator, was among the Democratic candidates declared until she dropped out on December 3, 2019. Representative Eric Swalwell from the 15th district was also a Democratic candidate but dropped out of the race on July 8, 2019. Other prominent state figures, including former Governor Jerry Brown, current Governor Gavin Newsom, and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti have declined to run.[4][5][6]

Republican primary

Main article: 2020 California Republican primary

The Republican party's primary campaign has been dominated by a lawsuit over the President's taxes.[7] The suit alleges that the new requirement for several years of a candidate's taxes was unconstitutional and onerous. The law was blocked in September 2019 while State Supreme court heard testimony and made a ruling.[8]

As a contingency, the Republican state committee changed its delegate selection process, turning the primary into a mere "beauty contest" and setting up an emergency state convention to Trump’s delegate choices.[9] Should Trump be allowed on the ballot, the convention would be canceled and the so-called "winner-take-most" rules, which require a challenger to get 20% of the vote, would apply.

President Trump was allowed on the ballot, and the contingency convention was canceled.


2020 California Republican presidential primary[10]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump 2,279,120 92.2% 172
Bill Weld 66,904 2.7% 0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 64,749 2.6% 0
Rocky De La Fuente 24,351 1.0% 0
Matthew John Matern 15,469 0.6% 0
Robert Ardini 12,857 0.5% 0
Zoltan Istvan 8,141 0.3% 0
Total 2,471,591 100%

Democratic primary

Main article: 2020 California Democratic presidential primary

Candidates began filing their paperwork on November 4, 2019, and the final list will be announced on December 9.

There were major complaints by Democrats there that Joe Biden and Elizabeth Warren were snubbing the state by refusing to attend a forum at the State's "endorsement convention.[11] Early voting began on February 11 and ended the day before primary day.


Popular vote share by county
  Sanders—<30%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
  Sanders—50–60%
  Biden—<30%
  Biden—30–40%
2020 California Democratic presidential primary[12]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[13]
Bernie Sanders 2,080,846 35.97 225
Joe Biden 1,613,854 27.90 172
Elizabeth Warren 762,555 13.18 11
Michael Bloomberg 701,803 12.13 7
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] 249,256 4.31
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] 126,961 2.19
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] 113,092 1.96
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[b] 43,571 0.75
Tulsi Gabbard 33,769 0.58
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 13,892 0.24
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[b] 7,377 0.13
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 7,052 0.12
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 6,000 0.10
John Delaney (withdrawn) 4,606 0.08
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 3,270 0.06
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[b] 2,022 0.03
Other candidates / Write-in [c]14,438 0.25
Total 5,784,364 100% 415
Bernie Sanders rally at the Los Angeles Convention Center
Senator Bernie Sanders at a campaign rally in San Jose on March 1, 2020
Joe Biden's presidential campaign in Bel Air, Los Angeles, on March 5, 2020
Votes (percentage) and delegates by district[13][14][15]
District Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Michael Bloomberg Elizabeth Warren Total delegates District region Largest city
1st 34% 2 23.7% 2 10.3% 0 12.9% 0 4 Shasta Cascade Chico, Redding
2nd 33.3% 3 25.3% 2 13.5% 0 15.9% 1 6 North Coast Eureka
3rd 34.3% 3 29.3% 2 12% 0 12% 0 5 Sacramento Valley Fairfield
4th 26.1% 2 29.6% 3 14.7% 0 11.4% 0 5 Sierras Roseville
5th 32.7% 3 27.2% 3 14.9% 0 12.6% 0 6 Wine Country Santa Rosa
6th 35.8% 3 28.1% 2 10.7% 0 14.3% 0 5 Sacramento Valley Sacramento
7th 30.9% 2 31.4% 3 13% 0 11.2% 0 5 Sacramento Valley Elk Grove
8th 35.7% 2 31.2% 2 11.8% 0 8.8% 0 4 Eastern Desert Victorville
9th 32.9% 2 32.5% 2 15.9% 1 7% 0 5 San Joaquin Valley Stockton
10th 35.5% 2 29.1% 1 15.3% 1 7.2% 0 4 San Joaquin Valley Modesto
11th 29% 2 30.7% 3 15.3% 1 14.7% 0 6 Bay Area Concord
12th 33.8% 3 23.9% 2 11% 0 23.4% 2 7 San Francisco Bay Area San Francisco
13th 38.7% 3 22.4% 2 8.1% 0 24.7% 2 7 Bay Area Oakland
14th 31.9% 3 26.4% 2 15.6% 1 14.8% 0 6 Bay Area Daly City
15th 34.1% 3 29.5% 3 14.4% 0 11.5% 0 6 Bay Area Hayward
16th 40.9% 3 26.2% 1 12.6% 0 7.2% 0 4 San Joaquin Valley Fresno, Merced
17th 36.1% 3 25.9% 2 14.3% 0 12.5% 0 5 Bay Area Fremont, Santa Clara
18th 26.6% 2 29% 2 15.4% 1 17.1% 1 6 Bay Area Sunnyvale
19th 38.9% 4 25.9% 2 13.6% 0 10.7% 0 6 Bay Area San Jose
20th 39.8% 3 25.5% 2 10.9% 0 13% 0 5 Central Coast Salinas
21st 43.2% 3 25.3% 1 13.7% 0 5.1% 0 4 San Joaquin Valley Kings, Kern, SW Fresno
22nd 34.4% 2 29.1% 2 13% 0 8.8% 0 4 San Joaquin Valley Visalia
23rd 34.9% 2 30.2% 2 12.2% 0 9% 0 4 South Central California Bakersfield
24th 35.3% 3 26.8% 2 10.5% 0 14.7% 0 5 Central Coast Santa Maria
25th 35.6% 3 33.6% 2 10% 0 10% 0 5 LA County Santa Clarita
26th 34.4% 3 31.1% 2 12.1% 0 11.5% 0 5 Central Coast Oxnard
27th 35.9% 2 29.2% 2 10.2% 0 15.7% 1 5 LA County San Gabriel Valley
28th 40% 3 22.7% 2 7.5% 0 21.7% 1 6 LA County Glendale
29th 49.8% 3 21.5% 2 7.7% 0 11.2% 0 5 LA County San Fernando Valley
30th 32.6% 3 31.2% 2 11.2% 0 15.4% 1 6 LA County San Fernando Valley
31st 39.1% 3 32.3% 2 11% 0 8.3% 0 5 Southern California San Bernardino
32nd 44.7% 3 28.2% 2 10.5% 0 7.5% 0 5 LA County El Monte
33rd 26.2% 2 34.2% 3 14.3% 0 16.1% 1 6 LA County Santa Monica, Coastal LA
34th 53.7% 4 16.8% 1 8.1% 0 14.7% 0 5 LA County Downtown Los Angeles
35th 46.6% 2 28.2% 2 10.9% 0 6.2% 0 4 Southern California Fontana
36th 27.5% 1 29.8% 2 15.4% 1 8.1% 0 4 Eastern Desert Indio
37th 35.6% 3 31.3% 2 10.1% 0 16.2% 1 6 LA County West LA
38th 41.7% 3 30.8% 2 10.5% 0 7.6% 0 5 LA County Norwalk
39th 36.7% 3 30.5% 2 12.6% 0 9.6% 0 5 Southern California Fullerton
40th 56.4% 4 20.9% 1 8.9% 0 5.4% 0 5 LA County East Los Angeles
41st 45% 3 27.9% 2 10.7% 0 7.5% 0 5 Southern California Riverside
42nd 37% 3 31.6% 2 12.4% 0 7.9% 0 5 Southern California Corona
43rd 36.5% 3 34.3% 2 10% 0 10.3% 0 5 LA County Inglewood
44th 44% 3 29.6% 2 6.2% 0 9.6% 0 5 Los Angeles County Compton
45th 34% 3 29.1% 2 13.5% 0 12% 0 5 Southern California Irvine
46th 53.7% 2 20% 2 10.5% 0 7.7% 0 4 Southern California Anaheim
47th 38.5% 3 27.3% 2 10.6% 0 12.2% 0 5 Southern California Long Beach
48th 30.4% 2 30.3% 2 16.3% 1 11% 0 5 Southern California Huntington Beach
49th 30.6% 3 30.5% 2 14.6% 0 12.2% 0 5 Southern California Oceanside
50th 34.9% 2 27.6% 2 13% 0 11.3% 0 4 Southern California Escondido
51st 49.2% 3 23.7% 2 11.3% 0 6.8% 0 5 Southern California Downtown San Diego and Border Communities
52nd 30.6% 3 30% 3 13.4% 0 14.6% 0 6 Southern California North San Diego
53rd 37.8% 3 27.3% 3 10.1% 0 14.5% 0 6 Southern California Eastern San Diego and suburbs
Total 36.0% 144 27.9% 109 12.1% 7 13.2% 11 271
Pledged delegates[14]
Delegate type Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Michael Bloomberg Elizabeth Warren
At-large 51 39 0 0
PLEO 30 24 0 0
District-level 144 109 7 11
Total 225 172 7 11

Libertarian primary

Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

The Libertarian Party of California permitted non-affiliated voters to vote in their presidential primary.[16]

California Libertarian primary, 2020[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jacob Hornberger 2,898 17.5
Libertarian Ken Armstrong 1,921 11.6
Libertarian Vermin Supreme 1,921 11.6
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen 1,896 11.4
Libertarian Kim Ruff (withdrawn) 1,459 8.8
Libertarian Adam Kokesh 1,302 7.9
Libertarian Dan "Taxation is Theft" Behrman 1,039 6.3
Libertarian Sam Robb 993 6.0
Libertarian Max Abramson 970 5.9
Libertarian Steve Richey 649 3.9
Libertarian Souraya Faas 590 3.6
Libertarian Erik Gerhardt 486 2.9
Libertarian Keenan Wallace Dunham 440 2.7
Total votes 16,564 100%

Green primary

Main article: 2020 Green Party presidential primaries
2020 California Green primary[18]
Candidate Votes Percentage National delegates
Howie Hawkins 4,202 36.2% 16 estimated
Dario Hunter 2,558 22.0% 9 estimated
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry 2,071 17.8% 8 estimated
Dennis Lambert 1,999 17.2% 7 estimated
David Rolde 774 6.7% 3 estimated
Total 9,656 100.00% 43

Other primaries

American Independent primary

The American Independent Party permitted non-affiliated voters to vote in their presidential primary.[16]

California American Independent primary, 2020[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
American Independent Phil Collins 11,532 32.8
American Independent Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente 7,263 21.0
American Independent Don Blankenship 6,913 19.7
American Independent J.R. Myers 5,099 14.5
American Independent Charles Kraut 4,216 12.0
Total votes 35,723 100%

Peace and Freedom primary

California Peace and Freedom primary, 2020[19]
Party Candidate Votes %
Peace and Freedom Gloria La Riva 2,570 66.0
Peace and Freedom Howie Hawkins 1,325 34.0
Total votes 3,895 100%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Safe D July 23, 2020
Inside Elections[21] Safe D July 17, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[23] Safe D July 6, 2020
RCP[24] Safe D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[25] Safe D March 24, 2020
CNN[26] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[27] Safe D August 7, 2020
CBS News[28] Likely D August 9, 2020
270towin[29] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[30] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[31] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[32] Safe D August 6, 2020
538[33] Safe D August 14, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Joe Biden Donald Trump Other/Undecided[d] Margin
Real Clear Politics May 8– July 27, 2020 August 13, 2020 60.3% 30.0% 10.7% Biden +30.3
FiveThirtyEight Until May 26, 2020 June 23, 2020 61.4% 31.4% 7.5% Biden +29.7

with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Other Undecided
SurveyUSA Aug 12, 2020 500 (A) ± 5.4% 28% 56% 6% 10%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 9, 2020 1904 (LV) ± 2.3% 24% 62% 6% 8%
University of California Berkeley Jul 21–27, 2020 6,756 (LV) ± 2.0% 28% 67% – –
Public Policy Institute of California May 19–26, 2020 1,048 (LV) ± 4.6% 33% 57% 6%[f] 3%
SurveyUSA May 18–19, 2020 537 (LV) ± 5.4% 30% 58% 5% 7%
Emerson College May 8–10, 2020 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 29% 59% – 12%
Public Policy Polling Mar 28–29, 2020 962 (RV) – 29% 67% – 3%
AtlasIntel Feb 24 – Mar 2, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 26% 62% 12% –
YouGov Feb 26–28, 2020 1,507 (RV) – 31% 59% 4% 4%
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 951 (RV) ± 3.3% 35% 60% 3%[g] 3%
University of California Berkeley Feb 20–25, 2020 5,526 (RV) – 31% 58% – 11%
SurveyUSA Feb 13–16, 2020 1,196 (RV) ± 3.1% 37% 57% – 6%
YouGov/USC Price-Schwarzenegger Institute Feb 1–15, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 3.1% 30% 60% – 4%
SurveyUSA Jan 14–16, 2020 1,967 (RV) ± 2.8% 35% 59% – 6%
CNN/SSRS Dec 4–8, 2019 1,011 (RV) ± 3.4% 36% 56% 3%[h] 5%
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 32% 59% – 9%
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.8% 32% 59% – 9%
Emerson College Sep 13–16, 2019 830 ± 3.3% 36% 64% – –
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 31% 57% – 11%
SurveyUSA Aug 1–5, 2019 2,184 ± 2.7% 27% 61% – 12%
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 33% 56% – 11%
Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 24 – Mar 2, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 28% 60% 12% –
YouGov Feb 26–28, 2020 1,507 (RV) – 31% 59% 6%[i] 4%
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 951 (RV) ± 3.3% 36% 59% 3%[j] 2%
University of California Berkeley Feb 20–25, 2020 5,526 (RV) – 31% 59% – 10%
SurveyUSA Feb 13–16, 2020 1,196 (RV) ± 3.1% 37% 58% – 6%
YouGov/USC Price-Schwarzenegger Institute Feb 1–15, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 3.1% 31% 61% – 4%
SurveyUSA Jan 14–16, 2020 1,967 (RV) ± 2.7% 36% 59% – 5%
CNN/SSRS Dec 4–8, 2019 1,011 (RV) ± 3.4% 38% 54% 4%[k] 4%
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 34% 60% – 7%
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.8% 33% 59% – 8%
Emerson College Sep 13–16, 2019 830 ± 3.3% 38% 63% – –
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 33% 57% – 10%
SurveyUSA Aug 1–5, 2019 2,184 ± 2.7% 29% 62% – 9%

with Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Tulsi
Gabbard (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Jan 14–16, 2020 1,967 (RV) ± 2.8% 38% 43% 19%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 24 – Mar 2, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 28% 60% 12% –
YouGov Feb 26–28, 2020 1,507 (RV) – 32% 57% 5%[l] 6%
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 951 (RV) ± 3.3% 37% 56% 3%[m] 4%
University of California Berkeley Feb 20–25, 2020 5,526 (RV) – 33% 58% – 10%
SurveyUSA Feb 13–16, 2020 1,196 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 54% – 8%
YouGov/USC Price-Schwarzenegger Institute Feb 1–15, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 3.1% 32% 59% – 4%
SurveyUSA Jan 14–16, 2020 1,967 (RV) ± 2.8% 39% 55% – 7%
CNN/SSRS Dec 4–8, 2019 1,011 (RV) ± 3.4% 37% 53% 4%[n] 6%
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 35% 56% – 9%
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.9% 33% 55% – 12%
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.8% 35% 56% – 8%
Emerson College Sep 13–16, 2019 830 ± 3.3% 39% 61% – –
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 35% 53% – 12%
SurveyUSA Aug 1–5, 2019 2,184 ± 2.7% 30% 58% – 12%
SurveyUSA Jan 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 32% 53% – 14%

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 24 – Mar 2, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 25% 51% 24% –
YouGov Feb 26–28, 2020 1,507 (RV) – 32% 51% 10%[o] 7%
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 951 (RV) ± 3.3% 35% 55% 4%[p] 5%
University of California Berkeley Feb 20–25, 2020 5,526 (RV) – 30% 54% – 16%
SurveyUSA Feb 13–16, 2020 1,196 (RV) ± 3.1% 34% 59% – 7%
YouGov/USC Price-Schwarzenegger Institute Feb 1–15, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 3.1% 31% 57% – 6%
SurveyUSA Jan 14–16, 2020 1,967 (RV) ± 2.8% 36% 56% – 8%
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 34% 50% – 16%

with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Amy
Klobuchar (D) 		Other Undecided
YouGov Feb 26–28, 2020 1,507 (RV) – 31% 59% 7%[q] 7%
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 951 (RV) ± 3.3% 35% 55% 4%[r] 6%
University of California Berkeley Feb 20–25, 2020 5,526 (RV) – 30% 57% – 13%
SurveyUSA Feb 13–16, 2020 1,196 (RV) ± 3.1% 37% 52% – 11%
SurveyUSA Jan 14–16, 2020 1,967 (RV) ± 2.8% 38% 50% – 11%

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Other Undecided
YouGov Feb 26–28, 2020 1,507 (RV) – 33% 54% 8%[s] 6%
CNN/SSRS Feb 22–26, 2020 951 (RV) ± 3.3% 35% 56% 4%[t] 4%
University of California Berkeley Feb 20–25, 2020 5,526 (RV) – 30% 58% – 12%
SurveyUSA Feb 13–16, 2020 1,196 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 56% – 8%
YouGov/USC Price-Schwarzenegger Institute Feb 1–15, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 3.1% 31% 57% – 6%
SurveyUSA Jan 14–16, 2020 1,967 (RV) ± 2.8% 37% 53% – 10%
CNN/SSRS Dec 4–8, 2019 1,011 (RV) ± 3.4% 36% 53% 4%[u] 7%
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 34% 52% – 14%
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.9% 32% 54% – 13%
SurveyUSA Aug 1–5, 2019 2,184 ± 2.8% 30% 53% – 17%

with Donald Trump and Tom Steyer

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Tom
Steyer (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Feb 13–16, 2020 1,196 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 54% 9%
SurveyUSA Jan 14–16, 2020 1,967 (RV) ± 2.8% 37% 53% 10%

with Donald Trump and Deval Patrick

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Deval
Patrick (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 34% 34% 32%

with Donald Trump and Andrew Yang

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Andrew
Yang (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Jan 14–16, 2020 1,967 (RV) ± 2.8% 37% 53% 10%

with Donald Trump and Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Cory
Booker (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 39% 26%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 35% 56% 8%
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.8% 35% 57% 8%
Emerson College Sep 13–16, 2019 830 ± 3.3% 39% 61% –
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 35% 53% 12%
SurveyUSA Aug 1–5, 2019 2,184 ± 2.7% 30% 59% 12%
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 54% 12%
SurveyUSA Jan 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 33% 53% 13%

with Donald Trump and Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 34% 51% 15%

with Donald Trump and Kirsten Gillibrand

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Kirsten
Gillibrand (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 33% 47% 19%
SurveyUSA Jan 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 32% 46% 22%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Jerry Brown

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Jerry
Brown (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 54% 11%

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Sherrod
Brown (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 36% 29%

with Donald Trump and Eric Garcetti

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Eric
Garcetti (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 34% 49% 17%
SurveyUSA Jan 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 32% 46% 21%

with Donald Trump and Tom Hanks

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Tom
Hanks (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 34% 51% 15%
SurveyUSA Jan 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 31% 56% 14%

with Donald Trump and Eric Holder

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Eric
Holder (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 38% 26%

with Donald Trump and Mitch Landrieu

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Mitch
Landrieu (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 36% 29%

with Donald Trump and Michelle Obama

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Michelle
Obama (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Aug 1–5, 2019 2,184 ± 2.7% 28% 64% 8%
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 36% 57% 8%

with Donald Trump and Oprah Winfrey

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Oprah
Winfrey (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Aug 1–5, 2019 2,184 ± 2.7% 28% 57% 14%
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 35% 52% 13%
SurveyUSA Jan 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 32% 56% 12%

with Donald Trump and Mark Zuckerberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump (R) 		Mark
Zuckerberg (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Mar 22–25, 2018 882 ± 3.8% 36% 42% 22%
SurveyUSA Jan 7–9, 2018 909 ± 3.3% 31% 50% 19%

with Mike Pence and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 29% 59% 12%
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.8% 30% 58% 13%
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 27% 58% 15%

with Mike Pence and Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Michael
Bloomberg (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 32% 48% 20%

with Mike Pence and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 34% 48% 17%
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.9% 34% 45% 21%

with Mike Pence and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 31% 59% 9%
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.8% 31% 58% 10%
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 31% 57% 13%

with Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 34% 53% 13%
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.9% 33% 55% 12%
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 33% 50% 16%

with Nikki Haley and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley (R) 		Joe
Biden (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.9% 21% 56% 23%
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 21% 56% 24%

with Nikki Haley and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley (R) 		Pete
Buttigieg (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.9% 24% 44% 32%

with Nikki Haley and Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley (R) 		Bernie
Sanders (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.8% 23% 58% 19%
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 24% 56% 19%

with Nikki Haley and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley (R) 		Elizabeth
Warren (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.9% 23% 52% 24%
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 25% 49% 26%
Hypothetical polling with former candidates

with Mike Pence and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Nov 20–22, 2019 2,039 (RV) ± 2.4% 34% 54% 12%
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.9% 33% 55% 12%
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 34% 51% 15%

with Mike Pence and Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 34% 47% 20%

with Nikki Haley and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley (R) 		Kamala
Harris (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Oct 15–16, 2019 1,242 (RV) ± 3.9% 23% 52% 25%
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 24% 51% 25%

with Nikki Haley and Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[e] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Undecided
SurveyUSA Sep 13–15, 2019 1,785 ± 3.2% 25% 44% 30%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary, when all-mail voting had already begun.
  2. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when all-mail voting had already begun.
  3. ^ Including 34 write-in votes
  4. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  6. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  7. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 3%
  8. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 3%
  9. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 3%
  10. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 3%
  11. ^ Other with 1%; neither with 3%
  12. ^ "Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  13. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 3%
  14. ^ Other with 1%; neither with 3%
  15. ^ "Other" with 6%; would not vote with 4%
  16. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 4%
  17. ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
  18. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 4%
  19. ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 3%
  20. ^ Other with 0%; neither with 4%
  21. ^ Other with 1%; neither with 3%

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ Dezenski, Lauren (December 19, 2018). "Why California leapfrogged the 2020 primary schedule". Retrieved March 4, 2019.
  4. ^ Richards, Sam (March 30, 2017). "Jerry Brown for president? 'Don't rule it out!'". Contra Costa Times. Retrieved May 10, 2017.
  5. ^ Steinmetz, Katy (September 9, 2017). "The Philosopher King". Time. Retrieved November 7, 2017.
  6. ^ Desk, Washington (March 4, 2019). "Former AG Eric Holder rules out 2020 run".
  7. ^ "California justices skeptical of requiring Trump tax returns". KCRA. November 6, 2019.
  8. ^ Augie Martin and Paul LeBlanc. "Federal judge halts California law forcing Trump to release tax returns to qualify for ballot". CNN. Retrieved 2019-12-10.
  9. ^ "California GOP opens alternative pathway for 2020 delegates". AP NEWS. September 8, 2019.
  10. ^ "California Republican Primary Results". electionresults.sos.ca.gov. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  11. ^ "Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren snubbing the Golden State, says California Democratic Party chair". November 6, 2019.
  12. ^ "Statement of Vote: Presidential Primary Election, March 3, 2020" (PDF). Secretary of State of California. May 1, 2020. Retrieved July 12, 2020.
  13. ^ a b Cite error: The named reference GP was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
  14. ^ a b "Presidential Primary Election - Statement of Vote, March 3, 2020 :: California Secretary of State". www.sos.ca.gov.
  15. ^ Delegate and Alternate Allocation per Congressional District California Democratic Party.
  16. ^ a b Myers, John (October 21, 2019). "California independents can cast ballots for Democrats — but not Trump — in March primary". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved November 17, 2019.
  17. ^ a b Generally Recognized Presidential Candidates – March 3, 2020, Presidential Primary Election
  18. ^ "California Green Party Primary". er.ncsbe.gov. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
  19. ^ "2020 California Presidential Primary Election Results". Election Results.
  20. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  21. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  22. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  23. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  24. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  25. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  26. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
  27. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved 7 July 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  30. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved 2020-08-03.
  32. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved 2020-08-06.
  33. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved 14 August 2020.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_California&oldid=972977522"