2018 United States Senate election in Missouri

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United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018

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  Josh Hawley Primary Night (cropped 2).jpg Claire McCaskill, 113th official photo (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Josh Hawley Claire McCaskill
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,254,927 1,112,935
Percentage 51.4% 45.6%

Missouri Senate Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County results


Hawley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
McCaskill:      40-50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%



U.S. Senator before election

Claire McCaskill
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Josh Hawley
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections, including Missouri's quadrennial State Auditor election.

Incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill ran for re-election in a primary field of eight Democrats. Eleven Republicans vyed for their party's nomination which went to State Attorney General Josh Hawley, who filed notification in August, 2017, that he had formed an exploratory campaign committee for the seat.[1][2]

The candidate filing deadline was March 27, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 7, 2018.[3] On November 6, 2018, Hawley was elected with 51.5% of the vote, to McCaskill's 45.4%, meaning Republicans will hold both Senate seats in Missouri for the first time since 2007.[4]

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

  • Angelica Earl, former insurance verification specialist[7]
  • David Faust[8]
  • Travis Gonzalez, perennial candidate[8]
  • John Hogan, perennial candidate[8]
  • Leonard Steinman, perennial candidate[8]
  • Carla (Coffee) Wright

Endorsements[edit]

Claire McCaskill
U.S. President
U.S. Senators
State officials
Individuals
Organizations

Results[edit]

Results by county:
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Claire McCaskill (incumbent) 500,162 82.6
Democratic Carla Wright 40,971 6.8
Democratic John Hogan 15,928 2.6
Democratic David Faust 15,902 2.6
Democratic Angelica Earl 15,453 2.6
Democratic Travis Gonzalez 9,453 1.6
Democratic Leonard Steinman 7,634 1.3
Total votes 605,503 100.0

Republican primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

Eliminated in primary[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Josh Hawley
U.S. Presidents
U.S. Vice President
U.S. Executive Branch official
United States Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Cabinet-level officials
Individuals
Organizations
Publications
Austin Petersen
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
State judges
Clerks
Military Officials
  • John Burk, former drill instructor, motivational speaker, social media consultant, sales rep, CEO of In The Arena Fitness[94]
  • Rik Combs, retired U.S. Air Force officer and command pilot[95]
  • Shane Hazel, marine corps veteran, candidate for GA-07[96]
  • Kash Jackson, Navy veteran and activist, Libertarian nominee for Governor of Illinois in 2018[97]
  • Rob Maness, retired United States Air Force colonel and candidate for the U.S. Senate in Louisiana in 2014, 2016
Individuals
Organizations
Tony Monetti
Governors
Former White House official
Courtland Sykes
State judges

Debates[edit]

Host
network
Date Link(s) Participants
Josh
Hawley
Austin
Petersen
Courtland
Sykes
Tony
Monetti
Peter
Pfeifer
Kirsti
Nichols
America First Missouri May 11, 2018 [143] Absent Present Present Present Present Present

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Josh
Hawley
Austin
Petersen
Courtland
Sykes
Other Undecided
Emerson College April 26–29, 2018 283 ± 6.0% 37% 8% 6% 5% 45%

Results[edit]

Results by county:
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Josh Hawley 389,006 58.6
Republican Tony Monetti 64,718 9.8
Republican Austin Petersen 54,810 8.3
Republican Kristi Nichols 49,554 7.5
Republican Christina Smith 34,948 5.3
Republican Ken Patterson 19,537 2.9
Republican Peter Pfeifer 16,557 2.5
Republican Courtland Sykes 13,862 2.1
Republican Fred Ryman 8,763 1.3
Republican Brian Hagg 6,913 1.0
Republican Bradley Krembs 4,885 0.7
Total votes 663,553 100.0

Libertarian primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

  • Japheth Campbell, entrepreneur[144]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Results[edit]

Results by county:
Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Japheth Campbell 5,357 100.0
Total votes 5,357 100.0

Green primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Nominated[edit]

  • Jo Crain

Eliminated in primary[edit]

  • Jerome Bauer

Results[edit]

Results by county:
Green primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Jo Crain 902 57.5
Green Jerome Bauer 666 42.5
Total votes 1,568 100.0

Independents[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Craig O'Dear, attorney[148]

General election[edit]

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[149] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[150] Tilt R October 26, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[151] Lean R November 5, 2018
CNN[152] Tossup October 26, 2018
RealClearPolitics[153] Tossup October 26, 2018
Daily Kos[154] Tossup October 5, 2018
Fox News[155] Tossup October 19, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[156] Tossup November 5, 2018

Debates[edit]

Fundraising[edit]

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Claire McCaskill (D) $35,361,401 $33,594,412 $1,789,381
Josh Hawley (R) $10,221,143 $7,376,209 $2,844,933
Source: Federal Election Commission[157]

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Claire
McCaskill
(D)
Josh
Hawley
(R)
Japheth
Campbell
(L)
Craig
O'Dear
(I)
Jo
Crain
(G)
Other Undecided
HarrisX November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 46%
HarrisX November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 47%
The Trafalgar Group (R) October 29 – November 4, 2018 1,791 ± 2.3% 44% 48% 4% 3%
Emerson College November 1–3, 2018 732 ± 3.8% 46% 49% 3% 3%
HarrisX November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 46%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) November 1–2, 2018 1,424 ± 2.6% 47% 47% 1% 1% 1% 3%
HarrisX October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 46%
Marist College October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 LV ± 5.2% 47% 44% 3% 2% <1% 4%
50% 47% <1% 3%
920 RV ± 4.1% 46% 43% 3% 2% 1% 6%
50% 46% 1% 4%
HarrisX October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 43%
HarrisX October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 45% 43%
HarrisX October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 46% 44%
Fox News October 27–30, 2018 741 LV ± 3.5% 43% 43% 0% 3% 1% 0% 9%
45% 45% 2% 8%
851 RV ± 3.0% 41% 42% 1% 3% 2% 1% 10%
43% 44% 3% 9%
Cygnal (R) October 26–27, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 46% 49% 1% 3%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) October 24–25, 2018 1,376 ± 2.6% 45% 49% 1% 1% 1% 3%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) October 17–18, 2018 1,215 ± 2.7% 46% 47% 2% 1% 1% 2%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley) October 16–18, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 42% 49% 4% 5%
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United) October 11–13, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 50% 0% 3%
Ipsos September 27 – October 7, 2018 1,111 ± 3.0% 44% 45% 1% 2% 0% 2% 6%
1st Tuesday Campaigns October 5–6, 2018 1,052 ± 3.0% 42% 44% 1% 1% 1% 11%
Fox News September 29 – October 2, 2018 683 LV ± 3.5% 43% 43% 2% 4% 1% 1% 6%
46% 46% 3% 5%
805 RV ± 3.5% 41% 41% 2% 4% 2% 1% 9%
44% 44% 3% 8%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) September 29 – October 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 52%
Vox Populi Polling September 29 – October 1, 2018 869 ± 3.3% 49% 51%
CNN/SSRS September 25–29, 2018 756 LV ± 4.3% 47% 44% 3% 1% 0% 4%
906 RV ± 3.9% 43% 42% 4% 2% 0% 6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) September 26–27, 2018 1,555 ± 2.5% 46% 48% 6%
YouGov September 10–14, 2018 917 45% 45% 4% 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) September 11–13, 2018 1,724 ± 2.4% 44% 47% 8%
Fox News September 8–11, 2018 675 LV ± 3.5% 44% 41% 1% 3% 1% 1% 8%
45% 45% 3% 7%
808 RV ± 3.5% 41% 39% 1% 4% 1% 1% 11%
42% 43% 3% 10%
Marist College August 25–28, 2018 568 LV ± 4.8% 44% 40% 5% 3% <1% 8%
47% 47% 1% 5%
774 RV ± 4.2% 43% 39% 6% 3% <1% 8%
46% 47% 1% 5%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) August 12–14, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 41% 48% 3% 8%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) August 8–9, 2018 1,785 ± 2.3% 47% 47% 6%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) July 10–12, 2018 602 ± 4.0% 42% 43% 4% 11%
The Missouri Times/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2018 1,034 ± 3.2% 46% 48% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,038 ± 5.0% 49% 47% 4%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) June 2018 46% 42%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) June 11–13, 2018 804 ± 3.5% 47% 41%
Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen) May 16, 2018 822 ± 3.4% 43% 50% 7%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) May 9–10, 2018 898 ± 3.3% 48% 44% 8%
Emerson College April 26–29, 2018 600 ± 4.2% 45% 45% 11%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) April 19–20, 2018 1,542 ± 2.5% 48% 44% 8%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley) April 16–18, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 47% 7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) April 9–12, 2018 46% 44%
Mason-Dixon April 4–6, 2018 625 ± 4.0% 45% 44% 11%
Gravis Marketing March 5–7, 2018 931 ± 3.2% 42% 40% 18%
SurveyMonkey/Axios February 12 – March 5, 2018 1,938 ± 3.6% 44% 52% 4%
Public Policy Polling (D-TMI) January 8–9, 2018 965 ± 3.2% 45% 44% 11%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) January 3–4, 2018 1,122 ± 2.9% 45% 49% 6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) October 11–12, 2017 965 ± 3.1% 45% 48% 7%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) August 16–18, 2017 922 ± 3.0% 45% 50% 5%
Fabrizio Lee (R) July 10–11, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 42% 46% 12%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) July 7–8, 2017 928 ± 3.2% 44% 50% 6%

Results[edit]

Sen. McCaskill conceded a few hours after the polls closed on Election day. She ran well behind her 2012 vote in Southeast Missouri, especially in the Lead Belt and the Missouri Bootheel. She also ran poorly in the northern part of the state and in the St.Louis suburbs.[158] Despite McCaskill's loss, Missouri Democrats held the other statewide office that went up for election in this cycle, the office of Missouri State Auditor. Democratic incumbent State Auditor Nicole Galloway, who had been appointed to the post in 2015 by then-Gov. Jay Nixon following a vacancy, won a full term in the 2018 State Auditor election.[159]

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018[160]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Josh Hawley 1,254,927 51.38% +12.18%
Democratic Claire McCaskill (incumbent) 1,112,935 45.57% -9.14%
Independent Craig O'Dear 34,398 1.41% N/A
Libertarian Japheth Campbell 27,316 1.12% -4.98%
Green Jo Crain 12,706 0.52% N/A
n/a Write-ins 7 0.00% N/A
Total votes 2,442,289 100.0% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

References[edit]

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External links[edit]

Official campaign websites