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| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |[[Peterborough—Kawartha]]
| style="background-color:whitesmoke" |[[Châteauguay—Lacolle]]
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|{{Canadian party colour|CA|BQ|background}}|BQ (1.0% ahead of Lib)
|{{Canadian party colour|CA|BQ|background}}|BQ (1.0% ahead of Lib)

Revision as of 00:14, 22 September 2021

2021 Canadian federal election

← 2019 September 20, 2021 (2021-09-20) 45th →

338 seats in the House of Commons
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Reporting
99.40%
as of Sept 21, 18:40 EDT
  First party Second party Third party
 
Trudeau G7 Cropped.jpeg
Erin O'Toole March 18, 2021 portrait (cropped).jpg
Yves-Francois Blanchet in October 2009.jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Erin O'Toole Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 August 24, 2020 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Durham Belœil—Chambly
Last election 157 seats, 33.12% 121 seats, 34.34% 32 seats, 7.63%
Seats before 155 119 32
Seats won 158[a] 119 34
Seat change Increase3 Steady Increase2
Popular vote 5,198,000+ 5,452,000+ 1,256,000+
Percentage 32.3% 33.9% 7.8%
Swing Decrease0.8pp Decrease0.4pp Increase0.2pp

  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Jagmeet Singh at the 2nd National Bike Summit - Ottawa - 2018 (42481105871) (cropped v2).jpg
Annamie Paul in Toronto Regent Park (cropped).jpg
Leader Jagmeet Singh Annamie Paul
Party New Democratic Green
Leader since October 1, 2017 October 3, 2020
Leader's seat Burnaby South Ran in Toronto Centre (lost)[1]
Last election 24 seats, 15.98% 3 seats, 6.55%
Seats before 24 2
Seats won 25 2
Seat change Increase1 Steady
Popular vote 2,849,000+ 373,000+
Percentage 17.7% 2.3%
Swing Increase1.7pp Decrease4.3pp


Prime Minister before election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

Prime Minister after election

Justin Trudeau
Liberal

A polling station on election day

The 2021 Canadian federal election (formally the 44th Canadian general election) took place on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The writs of election were issued by Governor General Mary May Simon on August 15, 2021, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau requested the dissolution of parliament for a snap election.[2]

Based on election night results,[3] Trudeau's Liberals were projected by major news media to maintain their place as the governing party but did not succeed in obtaining a parliamentary majority.[4][5][6]

Background

The 2019 federal election resulted in the Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, losing both their parliamentary majority and the popular vote but nevertheless winning the most seats and remaining in office as a minority government. The Conservatives, who had gained seats and won the popular vote, continued as the Official Opposition. The Bloc Québécois regained official party status and became the third party, replacing the New Democrats in that role, with the latter party losing seats but maintaining official party status as the fourth party. Although the Greens increased their seats in the House of Commons, they ultimately failed to achieve the required number of MPs (twelve) for official party status, and no other party won any seats.[7][8]

In the immediate aftermath of the 2019 election, all leaders initially announced that they would continue as the heads of their respective parties into the next session of Parliament.[9][10][11] Elizabeth May said that she might not lead the Greens into the 44th election, and ultimately resigned as Green Party leader on November 4, 2019.[12][13] On November 6, 2019, the members of the Conservative caucus decided to not adopt a measure which would have given them the ability to remove Andrew Scheer as leader; his leadership would still have been reviewed at the party's next convention, which was scheduled for April 2020.[14][15] On December 12, Scheer announced his intention to resign as leader.[16] He stayed on until his successor Erin O'Toole was chosen and remains as the MP for Regina—Qu'Appelle.[17][18]

On August 15, 2021, after a request from Prime Minister Trudeau, the governor general dissolved parliament and called an election for September 20.[2] The election was called on the same day as the Fall of Kabul. In the first two weeks of the campaign, Trudeau received criticism for not acting fast enough in the face of the 2021 Taliban offensive to evacuate Afghans who supported Canada's military and diplomatic efforts during the War in Afghanistan.[19]

Parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2019 federal election, and the standings at dissolution. An expected by-election in Haldimand—Norfolk to fill the vacant seat was rendered moot by the commencement of the general election.

Name Ideology Position Leader 2019 result At dissolution
Votes (%) Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism
Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
33.12%
157 / 338
155 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism
Centre-right to right-wing Erin O'Toole
34.34%
121 / 338
119 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.63%
32 / 338
32 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism
Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
15.98%
24 / 338
24 / 338
Green Green politics Annamie Paul
6.55%
3 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.41%
1 / 338
5 / 338
Vacant seats N/A
0 / 338
1 / 338

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MPs chose not to run in the 2021 federal election:

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Will Amos[20] Pontiac Quebec August 8, 2021
  Larry Bagnell[21] Yukon Yukon August 5, 2021
  Navdeep Bains[22] Mississauga—Malton Ontario January 12, 2021
  Lyne Bessette[23] Brome—Missisquoi Quebec July 16, 2021
  Bob Bratina[24] Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Ontario May 17, 2021
  Wayne Easter[25] Malpeque Prince Edward Island June 14, 2021
  Pat Finnigan[26] Miramichi—Grand Lake New Brunswick June 14, 2021
  Paul Lefebvre[27] Sudbury Ontario March 12, 2021
  Karen McCrimmon[28] Kanata—Carleton Ontario August 8, 2021
  Catherine McKenna[29] Ottawa Centre Ontario June 27, 2021
  Geoff Regan[30] Halifax West Nova Scotia March 31, 2021
  Gagan Sikand[31] Mississauga—Streetsville Ontario August 15, 2021
  Adam Vaughan[32] Spadina—Fort York Ontario August 8, 2021
  Kate Young[33] London West Ontario March 18, 2021
  Steven Blaney[34] Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Quebec July 14, 2021
  Peter Kent[35][36] Thornhill Ontario November 19, 2020
  Tom Lukiwski[37][38] Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan Saskatchewan May 26, 2021
  Phil McColeman[39][40] Brantford—Brant Ontario December 30, 2020
  Cathy McLeod[41][42] Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo British Columbia February 4, 2021
  Bruce Stanton[43] Simcoe North Ontario June 25, 2020
  David Sweet[44] Flamborough—Glanbrook Ontario January 4, 2021
  David Yurdiga[45] Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Alberta August 14, 2021
  Louise Charbonneau[46] Trois-Rivières Quebec January 14, 2021
  Simon Marcil[46] Mirabel Quebec January 14, 2021
  Scott Duvall[47][48] Hamilton Mountain Ontario March 5, 2021
  Jack Harris[49][50] St. John's East Newfoundland and Labrador June 11, 2021
  Mumilaaq Qaqqaq[51] Nunavut Nunavut May 20, 2021
  Yasmin Ratansi[b] Don Valley East Ontario No announcement
  Ramesh Sangha[b] Brampton Centre Ontario No announcement
  Marwan Tabbara[b] Kitchener South—Hespeler Ontario No announcement
  Jody Wilson-Raybould[52] Vancouver Granville British Columbia July 8, 2021

The following MP was not renominated by his party:

Member of Parliament Electoral district Province or territory Date announced
  Michel Boudrias[53] Terrebonne Quebec August 4, 2021

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2020–21)
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Kitchener South—Hespeler June 6, 2020[54] Marwan Tabbara  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 1]  Independent
Toronto Centre August 17, 2020[55] Bill Morneau  Liberal Resigned[a 2] October 26, 2020 Marci Ien  Liberal
York Centre September 1, 2020[56] Michael Levitt  Liberal Resigned[a 3] October 26, 2020 Ya'ara Saks  Liberal
Don Valley East November 9, 2020[57] Yasmin Ratansi  Liberal Resigned from caucus[a 4]  Independent
Hastings—Lennox and Addington January 20, 2021[58][59] Derek Sloan  Conservative Expelled from caucus [a 5]  Independent
Brampton Centre January 25, 2021[60][61] Ramesh Sangha  Liberal Removed from caucus [a 6]  Independent
Haldimand—Norfolk May 11, 2021[62] Diane Finley  Conservative Resigned  Vacant
Fredericton June 10, 2021[63] Jenica Atwin  Green Changed affiliation  Liberal
  1. ^ laying of assault charges unrelated to parliament
  2. ^ to pursue leadership of OECD
  3. ^ to become a non-profit executive
  4. ^ revelation of nepotism in staff hiring
  5. ^ accepted a political donation from white supremacist Paul Fromm
  6. ^ made unsupported allegations that multiple other Liberal MPs harboured support for the Khalistan movement
  • August 15, 2021: Parliament is dissolved and writs of election are dropped.[64]
  • September 2, 2021: 1st French language leaders' debate, organized by TVA Nouvelles.
  • September 8, 2021: 2nd French language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 9, 2021: English language leaders' debate, organized by the Leaders' Debate Commission.
  • September 10–13, 2021: Advance polling.
  • September 14, 2021: Last day to apply online for mail-in voting. Last day to vote by Special Ballot at a Returning Office.
  • September 20, 2021: Election Day.

Endorsements

Endorsements received by each party
Type Liberal Conservative New Democratic Bloc Québécois Green
Media Toronto Star[65] National Post[66]
Toronto Sun[67]
Le Devoir[68]
Public figures Hillary Clinton[69]
Bruce Heyman[70]
Andrew Leach[70]
Hazel McCallion[71]
Barack Obama[69]
Andrew Weaver[72]
Conrad Black[73]
Celina Caesar-Chavannes[74]
Rick Hillier[75]
François Legault[76]
Brian Lilley[77]
Mark Norman[78]
Cindy Blackstock[79]
Bernie Sanders[80]
Rashida Tlaib[81]
Unions and business associations United Steelworkers[82]

Campaign

Campaign slogans

Party English French (translation)
Liberal Party of Canada "Forward. For Everyone."[83] "Avançons ensemble." ("Let's move forward together.")
Conservative Party of Canada "Secure the Future"[84] "Agir pour l'avenir." ("Act for the Future.")
New Democratic Party "Fighting for You"[85] "Oser ensemble" ("Dare Together")
Bloc Québécois
N/A
"Québécois" ("Quebecers")
Green Party of Canada "Be Daring."[86] "Faites le saut." ("Take the Leap.")

Policy platforms

Party Full platform PDF Ref
Liberal Party of Canada Forward. For Everyone. [87]
Conservative Party of Canada Canada's Recovery Plan [88]
New Democratic Party Ready for Better [89]
Bloc Québécois Québécois [90]
Green Party of Canada Platform 21. Be Daring. [91]

Leaders' debates

In June 2020, the Leaders' Debates Commission released its report reviewing the 2019 election debates and making recommendations for future debates.[92][93] The report recommended a permanent and publicly funded commission be tasked with organizing two debates every future election. It also called for the commission, not the government, to set the criteria for participation in future election debates.[92][93] Below are the scheduled debates:

2021 Canadian general election debates
Date Organizers Location Language Moderator  P  Participant  A  Absent (invited)  I  Invited  N  Not invited Source
Trudeau O'Toole Blanchet Singh Paul
September 2, 2021 TVA Nouvelles Montreal French Pierre Bruneau P P P P N [94][95]
September 8, 2021 Leaders' Debates Commission Canadian Museum of History, Gatineau French Patrice Roy P P P P P [96][97]
September 9, 2021 English Shachi Kurl P P P P P [96][97]

Candidate losses

The following candidates were disavowed by their parties and/or voluntarily ceased campaigning after candidate registration closed, remaining on the ballot:

Candidate Electoral district Province or territory Date announced Reason
  Raj Saini Kitchener Centre Ontario September 4, 2021 Ongoing sexual harassment allegations[98]
  Lisa Robinson Beaches—East York Ontario September 10, 2021 Alleged Islamophobic tweet (2018)[99][c]
  Sidney Coles Toronto—St. Paul's Ontario September 15, 2021 Alleged antisemitic tweet (2021)[100]
  Daniel Osborne Cumberland—Colchester Nova Scotia September 15, 2021 Alleged antisemitic tweet (2019)[100]
  Kevin Vuong Spadina—Fort York Ontario September 17, 2021 Sexual assault charge (dropped 2019)[101]
  Michael Lariviere Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Ontario September 20, 2021 Unspecified; probably associating proof-of-vaccination systems with Nazism at election debate[102]

Candidates

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 25-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 2021 Canadian federal election. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Results

The Liberals maintained a minority government. The results were very close to those of the 2019 election.[103]

Template:Canadian federal election, 2021

Seats which changed hands

Electoral district Province 2021 party 2021 MP 2019 party 2019 MP
Calgary_Skyview Alberta Lib (7.0% ahead of Con) George Chahal Con (24.15% ahead of Lib) Jag Sahota
Steveston—Richmond East British Columbia Lib (10.0% ahead of Con) Parm Bains Con (6.55% ahead of Lib) Kenny Chiu
Cloverdale—Langley City British Columbia Lib (3.0% ahead of Con) John Aldag Con (2.51% ahead of Lib) Tamara Jansen
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Ontario Lib (3.0% ahead of Con) Leah Taylor Roy Con (2.00% ahead of Lib) Leona Alleslev
Markham—Unionville Ontario Lib (7.0% ahead of Con) Paul Chiang Con (10.58% ahead of Lib) Bob Saroya
St. John's East Newfoundland and Labrador Lib (9.0% ahead of NDP) Joanne Thompson NDP (13.72% ahead of Lib) Jack Harris
King—Vaughan Ontario Con (2.0% ahead of Lib) Anna Roberts Lib (1.79% ahead of Con) Deb Schulte
Bay of Quinte Ontario Con (5.0% ahead of Lib) Ryan Williams Lib (2.36% ahead of Con) Neil Ellis
Peterborough—Kawartha Ontario Con (5.0% ahead of Lib) Michelle Ferreri Lib (4.36% ahead of Con) Maryam Monsef
Miramichi—Grand Lake New Brunswick Con (5.0% ahead of Lib) Jake Stewart Lib (1.07% ahead of Con) Pat Finnigan
Cumberland—Colchester Nova Scotia Con (12.0% ahead of Lib) Stephen Ellis Lib (0.99% ahead of Con) Lenore Zann
South Shore—St. Margarets Nova Scotia Con (4.0% ahead of Lib) Rick Perkins Lib (13.60% ahead of Con) Bernadette Jordan
Edmonton Griesbach Alberta NDP (3.0% ahead of Con) Blake Desjarlais Con (26.23% ahead of NDP) Kerry Diotte
Nanaimo—Ladysmith British Columbia NDP (1.0% ahead of Con) Lisa Barron Green (8.64% ahead of Con) Paul Manly
Port Moody—Coquitlam British Columbia NDP (5.0% ahead of Con) Bonita Zarrillo Con (0.28% ahead of NDP) Nelly Shin
Châteauguay—Lacolle Quebec BQ (1.0% ahead of Lib) Patrick O'Hara Lib (1.22% ahead of BQ) Brenda Shanahan
Kitchener Centre Ontario Green (9.0% ahead of Con) Mike Morrice Lib (10.70% ahead of Green) Raj Saini

Maps

Map showing results by riding
Cartogram of the 2021 Canadian federal election results using equal-area ridings

Notes

  1. ^ Includes Kevin Vuong, who was on the ballot as a Liberal but disavowed by the party during the campaign. He is not expected to be seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  2. ^ a b c Previously elected under the Liberal banner
  3. ^ Robinson claims the Twitter account was fake and reported to Durham police in 2018 after the tweet was made.

References

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