2024 United States Senate elections: Difference between revisions
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{{See also|List of United States senators from Texas|2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas}} |
{{See also|List of United States senators from Texas|2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Texas}} |
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Two-term Republican [[Ted Cruz]] was [[2018 United States Senate election in Texas|reelected in 2018]] with 50.9% of the vote. Cruz is running for a third term.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.texastribune.org/2022/11/19/ted-cruz-third-term-senate/|title=U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz confirms he will seek a third term in 2024|author=Chan, Sewell|date=November 19, 2022|work=The Texas Tribute|access-date=November 20, 2022|archive-date=November 20, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221120033900/https://www.texastribune.org/2022/11/19/ted-cruz-third-term-senate/|url-status=live}}</ref> |
Two-term Republican [[Ted Cruz]] was narrowly [[2018 United States Senate election in Texas|reelected in 2018]] with 50.9% of the vote. Cruz is running for a third term.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.texastribune.org/2022/11/19/ted-cruz-third-term-senate/|title=U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz confirms he will seek a third term in 2024|author=Chan, Sewell|date=November 19, 2022|work=The Texas Tribute|access-date=November 20, 2022|archive-date=November 20, 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20221120033900/https://www.texastribune.org/2022/11/19/ted-cruz-third-term-senate/|url-status=live}}</ref> |
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The Democratic nominee is U.S. representative [[Colin Allred]], who defeated [[Texas State Senator|state senator]] [[Roland Gutierrez (politician)|Roland Gutierrez]] and [[Texas House of Representatives|state representative]] [[Carl O. Sherman|Carl Sherman]] in the primary election.<ref name=Allred>{{cite web|last=Goodman|first=J. David|title=Rep. Colin Allred of Texas Will Challenge Ted Cruz for Senate|date=May 2, 2023|website=[[The New York Times]]|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/us/politics/colin-allred-ted-cruz-texas-senate.html|access-date=May 3, 2023|archive-date=May 3, 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230503155944/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/us/politics/colin-allred-ted-cruz-texas-senate.html|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.marshallnewsmessenger.com/news/marshall-community-leader-tracy-andrus-announces-campaign-for-u-s-senate/article_14df8024-c904-11ed-86cd-abe3fd1260ef.html | title=Marshall community leader Tracy Andrus announces campaign for U.S. Senate | date=March 23, 2023 | access-date=March 23, 2023 | archive-date=March 23, 2023 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230323215717/https://www.marshallnewsmessenger.com/news/marshall-community-leader-tracy-andrus-announces-campaign-for-u-s-senate/article_14df8024-c904-11ed-86cd-abe3fd1260ef.html | url-status=live }}</ref> |
The Democratic nominee is U.S. representative [[Colin Allred]], who defeated [[Texas State Senator|state senator]] [[Roland Gutierrez (politician)|Roland Gutierrez]] and [[Texas House of Representatives|state representative]] [[Carl O. Sherman|Carl Sherman]] in the primary election.<ref name=Allred>{{cite web|last=Goodman|first=J. David|title=Rep. Colin Allred of Texas Will Challenge Ted Cruz for Senate|date=May 2, 2023|website=[[The New York Times]]|url=https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/us/politics/colin-allred-ted-cruz-texas-senate.html|access-date=May 3, 2023|archive-date=May 3, 2023|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230503155944/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/03/us/politics/colin-allred-ted-cruz-texas-senate.html|url-status=live}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.marshallnewsmessenger.com/news/marshall-community-leader-tracy-andrus-announces-campaign-for-u-s-senate/article_14df8024-c904-11ed-86cd-abe3fd1260ef.html | title=Marshall community leader Tracy Andrus announces campaign for U.S. Senate | date=March 23, 2023 | access-date=March 23, 2023 | archive-date=March 23, 2023 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20230323215717/https://www.marshallnewsmessenger.com/news/marshall-community-leader-tracy-andrus-announces-campaign-for-u-s-senate/article_14df8024-c904-11ed-86cd-abe3fd1260ef.html | url-status=live }}</ref> |
Revision as of 22:57, 27 May 2024
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34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51[a] seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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![]() Map of the incumbents: Democratic incumbent running Democratic incumbent retiring Republican incumbent running Republican incumbent retiring Independent incumbent running Independent incumbent retiring No election Rectangular inset (Nebraska): both seats up for election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2024 United States Senate elections are scheduled to be held on November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. 33 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested in regular elections.[2] Senators are divided into 3 classes whose six-year terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every 2 years.[3] Class 1 senators will face election in 2024.[4]
As of August 2024, 24 senators (15 Democrats, 9 Republicans, and two independents) are seeking reelection in 2024.[citation needed] 2 Republicans (Mike Braun of Indiana and Mitt Romney of Utah), 4 Democrats (Ben Cardin of Maryland, Tom Carper of Delaware, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, and Joe Manchin of West Virginia), and one independent (Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona) are not seeking reelection.[5][6][7][8][9][10][11] Laphonza Butler of California, a Democrat who was appointed to her current seat in 2023, is not seeking election in 2024.[12]
2 special Senate elections will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections. 1 of those special elections will be held in California to fill the vacancy created by the death of long-time Senator Dianne Feinstein for the final 2 months of her unexpired term, and the other will be held in Nebraska following Ben Sasse's 2023 resignation.[13][10][14]
Elections analysts consider the map for these Senate elections to be highly unfavorable to Democrats. Democrats will be defending 23 of the 33 Class 1 seats.[15] 3 seats being defended by Democrats are in states won by Republican Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020, while there are no seats in this class held by Republicans in states won by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020. In the previous 2 Senate election cycles that coincided with presidential elections (2016 and 2020), only one senator (Susan Collins in 2020) was elected in a state that was won by the presidential nominee of the opposite party.[16]
Partisan composition
All 33 Class 1 Senate seats and one Class 2 seat are up for election in 2024; Class 1 currently consists of 20 Democrats, 3 independents who caucus with the Senate Democrats (before the end of the 117th Congress, Kyrsten Sinema left the Democratic Party and became an independent. She later announced her retirement in March 2024[17]), and 10 Republicans. If another vacancy occurs in other Class 2 or Class 3 Senate seats, that state might require a special election to take place during the 118th Congress, possibly concurrently with the other 2024 Senate elections.[citation needed]
Change in composition
Each block represents one of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate. "D#" is a Democratic/active senator, "I#" is an Independent senator, and "R#" is a Republican/active senator. They are arranged so that the parties are separated, and a majority is clear by crossing the middle.
Before the elections
Each block indicates an incumbent senator's actions going into the election.
D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
D20 | D19 | D18 | D17 | D16 | D15 | D14 | D13 | D12 | D11 |
D21 | D22 | D23 | D24 | D25 | D26 | D27 | D28 | D29 Calif. Retiring |
D30 Conn. Running |
D40 N.M. Running |
D39 N.J. Undeclared |
D38 Nev. Running |
D37 Mont. Running |
D36 Minn. Running |
D35 Mich. Retiring |
D34 Mass. Running |
D33 Md. Retiring |
D32 Hawaii Running |
D31 Del. Retiring |
D41 N.Y. Running |
D42 Ohio Running |
D43 Pa. Running |
D44 R.I. Running |
D45 Va. Running |
D46 Wash. Running |
D47 W.Va. Retiring |
D48 Wis. Running |
I1 Ariz. Retiring |
I2 Maine Running |
Majority (with Independents) ↑ | |||||||||
R41 Miss. Running |
R42 Mo. Running |
R43 Neb. (reg) Running |
R44 Neb. (sp) Running |
R45 N.D. Running |
R46 Tenn. Running |
R47 Texas Running |
R48 Utah Retiring |
R49 Wyo. Running |
I3 Vt. Running |
R40 Ind. Retiring |
R39 Fla. Running |
R38 | R37 | R36 | R35 | R34 | R33 | R32 | R31 |
R21 | R22 | R23 | R24 | R25 | R26 | R27 | R28 | R29 | R30 |
R20 | R19 | R18 | R17 | R16 | R15 | R14 | R13 | R12 | R11 |
R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 |
After the elections
D1 | D2 | D3 | D4 | D5 | D6 | D7 | D8 | D9 | D10 |
D20 | D19 | D18 | D17 | D16 | D15 | D14 | D13 | D12 | D11 |
D21 | D22 | D23 | D24 | D25 | D26 | D27 | D28 | Ariz. TBD |
Calif. TBD |
Minn. TBD |
Mich. TBD |
Mass. TBD |
Md. TBD |
Maine TBD |
Ind. TBD |
Hawaii TBD |
Fla. TBD |
Del. TBD |
Conn. TBD |
Mont. TBD |
Miss. TBD |
Mo. TBD |
N.D. TBD |
Neb. (reg) TBD |
Neb. (sp) TBD |
Nev. TBD |
N.J. TBD |
N.M. TBD |
N.Y. TBD |
Majority TBD → | |||||||||
W.Va. TBD |
Wash. TBD |
Va. TBD |
Vt. TBD |
Utah TBD |
Texas TBD |
Tenn. TBD |
R.I. TBD |
Pa. TBD |
Ohio TBD |
Wis. TBD |
Wyo. TBD |
R38 | R37 | R36 | R35 | R34 | R33 | R32 | R31 |
R21 | R22 | R23 | R24 | R25 | R26 | R27 | R28 | R29 | R30 |
R20 | R19 | R18 | R17 | R16 | R15 | R14 | R13 | R12 | R11 |
R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | R8 | R9 | R10 |
Key |
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Predictions
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/85/Pie_Chart_Predictions_2024_US_Senate.png/220px-Pie_Chart_Predictions_2024_US_Senate.png)
- Democratic Party
- Republican Party
- Tossup
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/20/Predictions_2024_US_Senate_Map.png/299px-Predictions_2024_US_Senate_Map.png)
- Democratic Party Safe
- Democratic Party Likely
- Democratic Party Lean
- Democratic Party Tilt
- Independent Safe
- Tossup
- Republican Party Safe
- Republican Party Likely
- Republican Party Lean
Several sites and individuals published predictions of competitive seats. These predictions looked at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent was running for reelection) and the other candidates, and the state's partisan lean (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assigned ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party had in winning that seat. Most election predictors used:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Constituency | Incumbent | Ratings | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
State | PVI[18] | Senator | Last election[d] |
Cook May 17, 2024[19] |
IE May 9, 2024[20] |
Sabato April 17, 2024[21] |
RCP May 15, 2024[22] |
ED May 4, 2023[23] |
CNalysis May 14, 2024[24] |
The Hill March 10, 2024[25] | ||||
Arizona | R+2 | Kyrsten Sinema (retiring) |
50.0% D[e] | Lean D (flip) | Tilt D (flip) | Lean D (flip) | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | ||||
California[f] | D+13 | Laphonza Butler (retiring) |
Appointed (2023)[g] |
Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | ||||
Connecticut | D+7 | Chris Murphy | 59.5% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | ||||
Delaware | D+7 | Tom Carper (retiring) |
60.0% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | ||||
Florida | R+3 | Rick Scott | 50.1% R | Likely R | Solid R | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | Very Likely R | Likely R | ||||
Hawaii | D+14 | Mazie Hirono | 71.2% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | ||||
Indiana | R+11 | Mike Braun (retiring) |
50.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | ||||
Maine | D+2 | Angus King | 54.3% I | Safe I | Safe I | Likely I | Solid I | Safe I | Solid I | Likely I | ||||
Maryland | D+14 | Ben Cardin (retiring) |
64.9% D | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D | Tossup | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | ||||
Massachusetts | D+15 | Elizabeth Warren | 60.3% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | ||||
Michigan | R+1 | Debbie Stabenow (retiring) |
52.3% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | ||||
Minnesota | D+1 | Amy Klobuchar | 60.3% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | ||||
Mississippi | R+11 | Roger Wicker | 58.5% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | ||||
Missouri | R+10 | Josh Hawley | 51.4% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Likely R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | ||||
Montana | R+11 | Jon Tester | 50.3% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | ||||
Nebraska (regular) |
R+13 | Deb Fischer | 57.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | ||||
Nebraska (special) |
R+13 | Pete Ricketts | Appointed (2023)[h] |
Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | ||||
Nevada | R+1 | Jacky Rosen | 50.4% D | Tossup | Tilt D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Tilt D | Tossup | ||||
New Jersey | D+6 | Bob Menendez | 54.0% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Likely D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | ||||
New Mexico | D+3 | Martin Heinrich | 54.1% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Lean D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | ||||
New York | D+10 | Kirsten Gillibrand | 67.0% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | ||||
North Dakota | R+20 | Kevin Cramer | 55.1% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | ||||
Ohio | R+6 | Sherrod Brown | 53.4% D | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | Tossup | ||||
Pennsylvania | R+2 | Bob Casey Jr. | 55.7% D | Lean D | Tilt D | Likely D | Tossup | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D | ||||
Rhode Island | D+8 | Sheldon Whitehouse | 61.4% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | ||||
Tennessee | R+14 | Marsha Blackburn | 54.7% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | ||||
Texas | R+5 | Ted Cruz | 50.9% R | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R | Tossup | Likely R | Lean R | Likely R | ||||
Utah | R+13 | Mitt Romney (retiring) |
62.6% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | ||||
Vermont | D+16 | Bernie Sanders | 67.4% I | Safe I | Safe I | Safe I | Solid I | Safe I | Solid I | Safe I | ||||
Virginia | D+3 | Tim Kaine | 57.0% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Likely D | Solid D | Likely D | ||||
Washington | D+8 | Maria Cantwell | 58.3% D | Solid D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D | Safe D | ||||
West Virginia | R+22 | Joe Manchin (retiring) |
49.6% D | Solid R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Safe R (flip) | Solid R (flip) | Likely R (flip) | ||||
Wisconsin | R+2 | Tammy Baldwin | 55.4% D | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D | ||||
Wyoming | R+25 | John Barrasso | 67.0% R | Solid R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R | Safe R | ||||
Overall[i] | D/I - 47 R - 50 3 tossups |
D/I - 48 R - 50 2 tossups |
D/I - 48 R - 50 2 tossups |
D/I - 42 R - 49 9 tossups |
D/I - 47 R - 50 3 tossups |
D/I - 47 R - 50 3 tossups |
D/I - 45 R - 50 5 tossups |
Retirements
As of August 2024, eight senators have announced plans to retire. Dianne Feinstein of California announced her intent to retire at the end of her term, but she died in office on September 29, 2023. Laphonza Butler, who was appointed by California governor Gavin Newsom to continue Feinstein's term, announced on October 19 that she will not run for a full term and to finish the final two months of Feinstein's term.
Race summary
Special elections during the preceding Congress
In each special election, the winner's term begins immediately after their election is certified by their state's government.
Elections are sorted by date then state.
State (linked to summaries below) |
Incumbent | Status | Candidates | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Senator | Party | Electoral history | |||
California (Class 1) |
Laphonza Butler | Democratic | 2023 (appointed) | Interim appointee retired[12] |
|
Nebraska (Class 2) |
Pete Ricketts | Republican | 2023 (appointed) | Interim appointee nominated |
|
Elections leading to the next Congress
In these general elections, the winners will be elected for the term beginning January 3, 2025.
State (linked to summaries below) |
Incumbent | Candidates | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Senator | Party | Electoral history | Last race | Result | ||
Arizona | Kyrsten Sinema | Independent | 2018[e] | 50.0% D | Incumbent retired[11] | |
California | Laphonza Butler | Democratic | 2023 (appointed) | 54.2% D[g] | Interim appointee retired[12] |
|
Connecticut | Chris Murphy | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
59.5% D | Incumbent running |
|
Delaware | Tom Carper | Democratic | 2000 2006 2012 2018 |
60.0% D | Incumbent retired[7] |
|
Florida | Rick Scott | Republican | 2018 | 50.1% R | Incumbent running |
|
Hawaii | Mazie Hirono | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
71.2% D | Incumbent running |
|
Indiana | Mike Braun | Republican | 2018 | 50.7% R | Incumbent retired to run for governor[5] | |
Maine | Angus King | Independent | 2012 2018 |
54.3% I | Incumbent running |
|
Maryland | Ben Cardin | Democratic | 2006 2012 2018 |
64.9% D | Incumbent retired[6] |
|
Massachusetts | Elizabeth Warren | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
60.3% D | Incumbent running |
|
Michigan | Debbie Stabenow | Democratic | 2000 2006 2012 2018 |
52.3% D | Incumbent retired[10] |
|
Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar | DFL | 2006 2012 2018 |
60.3% DFL | Incumbent running |
|
Mississippi | Roger Wicker | Republican | 2007 (appointed) 2008 (special) 2012 2018 |
58.5% R | Incumbent renominated |
|
Missouri | Josh Hawley | Republican | 2018 | 51.4% R | Incumbent running |
|
Montana | Jon Tester | Democratic | 2006 2012 2018 |
50.3% D | Incumbent running |
|
Nebraska | Deb Fischer | Republican | 2012 2018 |
57.7% R | Incumbent renominated |
|
Nevada | Jacky Rosen | Democratic | 2018 | 50.4% D | Incumbent running |
|
New Jersey | Bob Menendez | Democratic | 2006 (appointed) 2006 2012 2018 |
54.0% D | Incumbent's intent unknown[j] |
|
New Mexico | Martin Heinrich | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
54.1% D | Incumbent running |
|
New York | Kirsten Gillibrand | Democratic | 2009 (appointed) 2010 (special) 2012 2018 |
67.0% D | Incumbent running |
|
North Dakota | Kevin Cramer | Republican | 2018 | 55.1% R | Incumbent running |
|
Ohio | Sherrod Brown | Democratic | 2006 2012 2018 |
53.4% D | Incumbent renominated |
|
Pennsylvania | Bob Casey Jr. | Democratic | 2006 2012 2018 |
55.7% D | Incumbent renominated |
|
Rhode Island | Sheldon Whitehouse | Democratic | 2006 2012 2018 |
61.4% D | Incumbent running |
|
Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn | Republican | 2018 | 54.7% R | Incumbent running |
|
Texas | Ted Cruz | Republican | 2012 2018 |
50.9% R | Incumbent renominated |
|
Utah | Mitt Romney | Republican | 2018 | 62.6% R | Incumbent retired[8] |
|
Vermont | Bernie Sanders | Independent | 2006 2012 2018 |
67.4% I | Incumbent running |
|
Virginia | Tim Kaine | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
57.0% D | Incumbent running | |
Washington | Maria Cantwell | Democratic | 2000 2006 2012 2018 |
58.3% D | Incumbent running |
|
West Virginia | Joe Manchin | Democratic | 2010 (special) 2012 2018 |
49.6% D | Incumbent retired[9] |
|
Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin | Democratic | 2012 2018 |
55.4% D | Incumbent running |
|
Wyoming | John Barrasso | Republican | 2007 (appointed) 2008 (special) 2012 2018 |
67.0% R | Incumbent running |
|
Arizona
One-term independent Kyrsten Sinema was narrowly elected in 2018 as a Democrat with 50.0% of the vote. She left the Democratic Party in December 2022.[88] Sinema announced on March 5, 2024, that she would not run for reelection.[89]
Prior to her retirement announcement, Sinema was considered vulnerable to challengers from the Democratic Party due to her opposition to some of President Joe Biden's agenda,[90] and U.S. representative Ruben Gallego launched an early bid for the Democratic nomination.[91][92]
Among Republicans, Pinal County sheriff Mark Lamb and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake have announced their candidacies.[93][94]
California
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Five-term Democrat Dianne Feinstein was reelected in 2018 with 54.2% of the vote against another Democrat. On February 14, 2023, Feinstein announced that she would not seek reelection to a sixth term.[95] However, she died on September 29, 2023, leaving the seat vacant. Democrat Laphonza Butler, president of EMILY's List, was appointed by California Governor Gavin Newsom to succeed Feinstein on October 2, 2023.[96] Butler is not running for election to a full term, or for the final two months of the current term.[12]
There were three major Democratic candidates for the seat — U.S. representatives Barbara Lee, Katie Porter, and Adam Schiff — along with former professional baseball player Steve Garvey running as a Republican.[97][98][99][100][101] Schiff was viewed as representing the establishment wing of the Democratic Party, while Porter and Lee represent the progressive wing.[102]
Adam Schiff and Steve Garvey won the non-partisan primary election which took place on March 5, 2024, during Super Tuesday, setting up a general election campaign between the two.[102]
Due to California's election rules, similar to the previous election for the other seat, there will be two ballot items for the same seat: a general election, to elect a Class 1 senator to a full term beginning with the 119th United States Congress, to be sworn in on January 3, 2025; and a special election to fill that seat for the final weeks of the 118th Congress.
Connecticut
Two-term Democrat Chris Murphy was reelected in 2018 with 59.5% of the vote. He has announced he is running for a third term.[103] Beacon Falls First Selectman Gerry Smith announced his campaign in early February 2024.[32] Lobbyist Robert F. Hyde is also a Republican candidate.[104]
Delaware
Four-term Democrat Tom Carper was reelected in 2018 with 60.0% of the vote. He announced on May 22, 2023, that he will be retiring, and will not run for a fifth term.[105]
Delaware's at-large U.S. representative Lisa Blunt Rochester is running for the Democratic nomination to succeed Carper, who endorsed her when he announced his retirement.[106][33]
Term-limited governor John Carney is also considered a possible Democratic candidate.[105][107] Carney announced that he is running for mayor of Wilmington.[108]
Among Republicans, businessman Eric Hansen has announced his candidacy.[109]
Florida
Former governor and incumbent one-term Republican Rick Scott was narrowly elected in 2018 with 50.06% of the vote. He is running for reelection to a second term.[110] Brevard County assistant district attorney Keith Gross and actor John Columbus are challenging Scott for the Republican nomination.[111][112]
Former U.S. Representatives Alan Grayson and Debbie Mucarsel-Powell are running for the Democratic nomination to challenge Scott.[113]
Hawaii
Two-term Democrat Mazie Hirono was reelected in 2018 with 71.2% of the vote. Hirono is running for a third term.[30]
Indiana
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One-term Republican Mike Braun was elected in 2018 with 50.8% of the vote. Braun is retiring to prepare to run for governor of Indiana.[5] U.S. representative Jim Banks is running unopposed after his only competition, businessman John Rust, was disqualified.[114]
Psychologist Valerie McCray defeated former state Representative Marc Carmichael for the Democratic nomination.[115]
Maine
Two-term Independent incumbent Angus King was reelected in 2018 with 54.3% of the vote in a three-candidate election. He intends to run for a third term despite previously hinting that he may retire.[116]
Democratic consultant David Costello has announced he is challenging King.[117] Former Maine Republican Party chair Demitroula Kouzounas is running.[118]
Maryland
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Three-term Democrat Ben Cardin was reelected in 2018 with 64.9% of the vote. On May 1, 2023, Cardin announced he is not running for reelection.[119]
Prince George's County executive Angela Alsobrooks defeated U.S. Representative David Trone for the Democratic nomination after a contentious primary, where Trone spent heavily from his personal wealth while Alsobrooks had the support of most elected Democrats.[120]
Former Governor Larry Hogan easily defeated conservative former state Delegate Robin Ficker for the Republican nomination.[121] A popular moderate known for his political independence, Hogan had previously declined to run,[122] but unexpectedly filed to run hours before the candidate filing deadline.[41]
Massachusetts
Two-term Democrat Elizabeth Warren was reelected in 2018 with 60.3% of the vote. On March 27, 2023, Warren announced that she is running for reelection.[123]
Software company owner Robert Antonellis is running as a Republican.[124] Former lieutenant governor Karyn Polito is seen as a potential candidate for the Republican nomination.[125]
Michigan
Four-term Democrat Debbie Stabenow was reelected in 2018 with 52.3% of the vote. She announced on January 5, 2023, that she will retire, and will not run for a fifth term.[10]
The primary will take place on Aug 6, 2024. Representative Elissa Slotkin,[126] and state representative Leslie Love[127] have announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination. Businessman and 2006 Republican candidate for this seat Nasser Beydoun has also declared his candidacy as a Democrat.[128] Actor Hill Harper announced his campaign for the Democratic nomination in July 2023.[129]
Former U.S. representatives Mike Rogers, Justin Amash, and hedge fund manager Sandy Pensler[130] are running for the Republican nomination.[131][132][133][134]
Representative John James, the Republican nominee for this seat in 2018 and for Michigan's other Senate seat in 2020, declined to run.[135]
Minnesota
Three-term Democrat Amy Klobuchar was reelected in 2018 with 60.3% of the vote. She is running for a fourth term.[30]
Among Republicans, former NBA basketball player Royce White and, banker and retired U.S. Navy commander, Joe Fraser, have declared their candidacies.[136][137]
Third party candidates consist of guardianship advocate and Republican candidate for governor in 2022, Independence-Alliance Party candidate, Joyce Lacy.[138]
Mississippi
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Two-term Republican Roger Wicker was reelected in 2018 with 58.5% of the vote. Wicker is running for a third full term. He faced a primary challenge from conservative state representative Dan Eubanks and won by a comfortable margin.[139] Wicker will be face Democratic lawyer Ty Pinkins in the general election.[140]
Missouri
One-term Republican Josh Hawley was elected in 2018 with 51.4% of the vote. He is running for reelection.[141]
Marine Veteran Lucas Kunce, who ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination in 2022, has announced he is running again. State Senator Karla May[142] and December Harmon, a member of the Columbia Police Review Board,[143] have also announced their campaigns for the Democratic nomination.
Montana
Three-term Democrat Jon Tester was narrowly reelected in 2018 with 50.3% of the vote. On February 22, 2023, he announced he is running for a fourth term. Tester is one of two Democratic senators running for reelection who represent states won by Republican Donald Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.[144]
Businessman and former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy is running for the Republican nomination.[145] U.S. representative Matt Rosendale, also a Republican, announced his candidacy on February 9, 2024, [146] but withdrew his candidacy on February 16, 2024.[147]
Nebraska
There will be two elections in Nebraska, due to the resignation of Ben Sasse.
Nebraska (regular)
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Two-term Republican Deb Fischer was reelected in 2018 with 57.7% of the vote. On May 14, 2021, Fischer announced she is seeking reelection, despite previously declaring an intention to retire.[148]
Dan Osborn, a union leader and steamfitter, is running as an independent. Since no Democrats have filed, the state party is considering supporting him.[149]
Nebraska (special)
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Two-term Republican Ben Sasse resigned his seat on January 8, 2023, to become president of the University of Florida.[150][13] Former Governor and 2006 Senate nominee Pete Ricketts was appointed by Governor Jim Pillen and a special election for the seat will take place concurrently with the 2024 regular Senate elections. Ricketts and Air Force veteran John Glen Weaver have declared their candidacies for the Republican nomination.[151] Former University of Nebraska Omaha professor Preston Love Jr. is running as a Democrat.[152]
Nevada
One-term Democrat Jacky Rosen was elected in 2018 with 50.4% of the vote. Rosen is running for a second term.[30]
Among Republicans, former state assemblyman Jim Marchant, who ran for secretary of state in 2022, has announced his candidacy.[153] On July 9, 2023, veteran and 2022 Senate candidate Sam Brown announced that he would be a candidate.[154] Other potential Republican challengers include former ambassador to Iceland Jeffrey Ross Gunter,[155] reality television personality Rick Harrison, and venture capitalist Guy Nohra.[156][157][158][159][160] Former state attorney general Adam Laxalt, who narrowly lost to Senator Catherine Cortez Masto in 2022, has said that he is unlikely to challenge Rosen.[161]
New Jersey
Democrat Bob Menendez was reelected in 2018 with 54.0% of the vote. On July 13, 2021, The New Jersey Globe reported that Menendez planned to run for a fourth full term.[162][163] On September 22, 2023, Menendez was indicted on federal bribery charges.[164] On March 14, 2024, a week after his planned retirement, Menendez reversed his decision considering to run for re-election as an Independent candidate.[165] Numerous national and New Jersey Democrats, including New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, called on Menendez to resign the same day, [166] including Congressman Andy Kim, who is running for the Democratic nomination.[167]
Financier and current First Lady of New Jersey Tammy Murphy also ran for the Democratic nomination but ended her campaign in March 2024.[168]
Mendham Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner[169] and real estate developer Curtis Bashaw[170] are running for the Republican nomination.[57]
New Mexico
Two-term Democrat Martin Heinrich was reelected in 2018 with 54.1% of the vote in a three-candidate race. He is running for a third term.[171] Hedge fund executive Nella Domenici, whose father served in the U.S. Senate from 1973 to 2009, announced her candidacy for the Republican nomination on January 17, 2024.[172]
New York
Two-term Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand was reelected in 2018 with 67.0% of the vote. She is running for a third full term.[173]
Former New York City Police Detective Mike Sapraico has declared his candidacy as a Republican.[174]
North Dakota
One-term Republican Kevin Cramer was elected in 2018 with 55.1% of the vote. Cramer, as of now, is running for re-election.[175]
Democrat Katrina Christiansen, an engineering professor from the University of Jamestown and candidate for the Senate in 2022 filed paperwork and announced her candidacy in early October.[176][177] Democrat Kristin Hedger, a businesswoman and nominee for North Dakota secretary of state in 2006 has filed paperwork to run for Cramer's seat, but has yet to make an official announcement.[178]
Ohio
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Three-term Democrat Sherrod Brown was reelected in 2018 with 53.4% of the vote. Brown is running for a fourth term. He is also one of two Democratic senators running for reelection who represent states won by Republican Donald Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.[179]
The Republican nominee is businessman Bernie Moreno, who defeated state senator Matt Dolan and secretary of state Frank LaRose in the primary election.[180]
Pennsylvania
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Three-term Democrat Bob Casey Jr., was reelected in 2018 with 55.7% of the vote. Casey is running for a fourth term.[181] He is being challenged by engineer Blaine Forkner.[182]
2022 Senate candidate David McCormick is running for the Republican nomination.[183][184][185][186][187][188] On September 30, 2023, the Pennsylvania Republican Party endorsed McCormick.[189] Conestoga Township treasurer Brandi Tomasetti is also running for the nomination.[190]
Rhode Island
Three-term Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse was reelected in 2018 with 61.4% of the vote. He is running for a fourth term. Republicans who have announced their candidacies include state Representative Patricia Morgan[191] and IT professional Raymond McKay.[67]
Tennessee
One-term Republican Marsha Blackburn was elected in 2018 with 54.7% of the vote. Blackburn has filed paperwork to run for reelection. Democratic state Representative Gloria Johnson, who avoided expulsion by one vote in April 2023, announced her candidacy in September.[192]
Texas
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Two-term Republican Ted Cruz was narrowly reelected in 2018 with 50.9% of the vote. Cruz is running for a third term.[193]
The Democratic nominee is U.S. representative Colin Allred, who defeated state senator Roland Gutierrez and state representative Carl Sherman in the primary election.[194][195]
Utah
One-term Republican Mitt Romney was elected in 2018 with 62.6% of the vote. On September 13, 2023, Romney announced he would not seek reelection in 2024.[196]
Announced Republican candidates include Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs,[197] state House Speaker Brad Wilson,[198] and U.S. Representative John Curtis.[199]
Vermont
Three-term independent Bernie Sanders was reelected in 2018 with 67.4% of the vote. He is being challenged by artist Cris Ericson, an independent perennial candidate.[73]
Virginia
Two-term Democrat Tim Kaine was reelected in 2018 with 57.0% of the vote. On January 20, 2023, he confirmed he is running for reelection to a third term.[200] Governor Glenn Youngkin, who will be term-limited in 2025, was considered a possible Republican candidate.[201]
On July 18, 2023, Navy veteran Hung Cao announced he would run as a Republican. Cao unsuccessfully ran for the U.S. House of Representatives against Democrat Jennifer Wexton in 2022.[202]
Washington
Four-term Democrat Maria Cantwell was reelected in 2018 with 58.3% of the vote.
Emergency room physician Raul Garcia announced that he would run as a Republican.[203]
West Virginia
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Democrat Joe Manchin was reelected in 2018 with 49.6% of the vote. On November 9, 2023, Manchin announced he would not seek reelection.[9] Since Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets have since rated this seat as expected to flip to GOP control, which would put this seat in Republican hands for the first time in 68 years.
Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, who has Manchin's endorsement,[204] defeated community organizer and U.S. Marine Corps veteran Zachary Shrewsbury and former coal executive Don Blankenship in the primary for the Democratic Party nomination.[205]
Governor Jim Justice defeated U.S. Representative Alex Mooney[206] in the Republican primary.
Wisconsin
Two-term Democrat Tammy Baldwin was reelected in 2018 with 55.4% of the vote. She is running for reelection.[81] Hedge fund manager Eric Hovde, candidate for the Senate in 2012, announced a second attempt at the Republican nomination. Former Milwaukee County sheriff David Clarke[207] is seen as a potential Republican challenger to Hovde's bid if he decides to run.[208][209]
Wyoming
Republican John Barrasso was reelected in 2018 with 67.0% of the vote.
See also
Notes
- ^ Majority control in an evenly divided Senate is determined by the Vice President of the United States, who has the power to break tied votes in their constitutional capacity as President of the Senate; accordingly, Senate control requires 51 seats without control of the vice presidency or 50 seats with control of the vice presidency.
- ^ a b All three independent senators (Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Angus King of Maine, and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona) caucus with Senate Democrats.[1]
- ^ The U.S. vice president, who will be determined in 2024, breaks ties in a 50–50 Senate. Republicans need 50 seats if they win the vice presidency or 51 if they do not.
- ^ The last elections for this group of senators were in 2018, except for those elected in a special election or who were appointed after the resignation or death of a sitting senator, as noted.
- ^ a b Sinema was elected as a Democrat and switched to being an independent in December 2022.
- ^ In both the regular election and the special election.
- ^ a b Democrat Dianne Feinstein won with 54.2% of the vote in 2018 against a fellow Democrat, but died in office on September 29, 2023.
- ^ Republican Ben Sasse won with 62.7% of the vote in 2020, but resigned January 8, 2023, to become president of the University of Florida.
- ^ Democratic total includes 3 Independents who caucus with the Democrats.
- ^ Menendez declined to run as a Democrat, but expressed interest in running as an independent
- ^ In October 2023, Butler was appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator Dianne Feinstein.
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