Wagner Group rebellion

Wagner Group rebellion
Part of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Map of the Wagner Group's advances during the rebellion
Date 23–24 June 2023 (2023-06-23 – 2023-06-24) (1 day) Location Russia Result Wagner forces halt advance on 24 June, begin withdrawing at 11:00 p.m. (GMT+3). (see § Resolution)
Belligerents
Wagner Group	Russian government Ministry of Defence Russian Armed Forces Federal Security Service National Guard of Russia Kadyrovites Police of Russia
Commanders and leaders
Yevgeny Prigozhin	Vladimir Putin Sergei Shoigu Valery Gerasimov Alexander Bortnikov Viktor Zolotov Ramzan Kadyrov
Strength
8,000–25,000	Unknown
Casualties and losses
32 killed 5 vehicles destroyed	13–29 killed 6 helicopters and 1 airborne command-center plane shot down 2 vehicles captured

On 23 June 2023, Wagner Group, a Russian private military company funded by the Russian government, staged a rebellion. The rebellion occurred during a period of increasing tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defence and Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of Wagner.

Prigozhin portrayed the rebellion as a response to an alleged attack on his forces by the ministry. While Prigozhin has been supporting the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he had previously publicly criticized Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, blaming Shoigu for the country's military shortcomings and accused him for handing over "Russian territories" to Ukraine. During the rebellion he demanded that they be turned over to him. In a televised address on 24 June, Russian president Vladimir Putin called Wagner mercenaries "patriots" while also denouncing their actions as treason and pledging to quell the rebellion.

Prigozhin's forces successfully took control of Rostov-on-Don and the headquarters of the Southern Military District. They then advanced towards Moscow in an armored column. Following the intervention of Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, Putin publicly presented Wagner with three options: joining the Ministry of Defense, relocating to Belarus, or disbanding. Prigozhin agreed to step down, and on the late evening of 24 June, his forces began withdrawing from Rostov-on-Don. The Russian Federal Security Service initiated a case for armed rebellion under Article 279 of the Criminal Code but later closed it on 27 June and dropped the charges.

At least thirteen servicemen of the Russian military were killed during the rebellion. On Wagner's side, 30 members of the Wagner group and two Russian military defectors were reported killed by Prigozhin.

Background

Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group

Further information: Wagner Group

Yevgeny Prigozhin in 2023

In the early 2000s, Prigozhin, having served a decade in prison before embarking on an entrepreneurial path, emerged as a prominent figure in Saint Petersburg's business landscape, gaining recognition for a string of highly regarded restaurants. This connection eventually facilitated a financial association with Putin, who was actively engaged in municipal politics during that period. Prigozhin gradually evolved into a trusted and intimate confidant of Putin, forging a close personal bond.

In 2014, Prigozhin founded the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company. Despite the legal prohibition of private military companies in Russia, Wagner operated unimpeded with implicit endorsement from the government. Many analysts have said that the government employed the services of the Wagner Group to allow for plausible deniability and to obscure the actual toll in terms of casualties and financial costs of Russia's foreign interventions.

Serving as a tool of Russian foreign and military policy, the Wagner Group emerged as a formidable combat force in various regions, including the Donbas conflict. It played a significant role during Russia's military intervention in the Syrian civil war, providing support to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, and has participated in conflicts in Mali, Libya, and the Central African Republic. Wagner has garnered infamy due to its ruthless methods and its participation in war crimes throughout Africa, the Middle East, and Ukraine, perpetrating atrocities with impunity.

The group maintains close ties with multiple African governments, enjoying considerable autonomy to exploit the natural resources of these nations in return for supporting local forces in their battle against anti-government rebels. Wagner's economic endeavors in Africa witnessed an upward trajectory even amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as the funds generated were channeled towards financing the conflicts in Ukraine and other regions.

Internal tensions during the invasion of Ukraine

Main article: Prigozhin–Shoigu conflict See also: Wagner Group activities in Ukraine

Attempts to limit Prigozhin's influence

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov have been the two most prominent targets of Prigozhin's rhetoric.

According to United States officials, Yevgeny Prigozhin had longstanding disputes with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) "for years" prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. However, these tensions escalated and became more public during this stage of the Russo-Ukrainian War. During the initial stages of the invasion, the Russian Ground Forces suffered significant casualties, but the announcement of mobilization for reservists was delayed by Putin. As a result, authorities actively sought to enlist mercenaries for the invasion, which led to a heightened influence and power for Prigozhin and the Wagner Group. Prigozhin was allocated substantial resources, including his own aviation assets. Additionally, starting in the summer of 2022, he gained the authority to recruit inmates from Russian prisons into the Wagner Group in exchange for their freedom. Western intelligence estimated that the number of Wagner mercenaries increased from "several thousand" fighters around 2017–2018 to approximately 50,000 fighters by December 2022, with the majority comprising criminal convicts recruited from prisons.

Although the government provided them with increasingly large resources, Wagner had no legal authority. Prigozhin held no official position and was neither appointed nor elected, meaning that he technically had no authority to answer to. Furthermore, Prigozhin gained international recognition and abandoned his previously secluded personal life. He frequently reported news from the frontline while wearing military fatigues. Wagner began to be perceived as Prigozhin's private army, operating beyond the boundaries of Russian legislation and the country's military hierarchy. Dissatisfaction arose within the Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the General Staff, leading them to make efforts to curtail Prigozhin's growing influence. In early February 2023, Prigozhin announced that Wagner had ceased recruiting prisoners, which the British Defense Ministry interpreted as a government ban on such recruitment. This change was expected to diminish the group's fighting capacity.

Conversely, Prigozhin portrayed himself as a populist figure who confronts the military establishment, repeatedly accusing it of failing to protect national interests. On 1 October 2022, during Ukraine's Kharkiv counteroffensive, which expelled Russia from most of the region, Prigozhin criticized the Russian command, stating that "All these bastards ought to be sent to the front barefoot with just a submachine gun." Due to his increased influence, Prigozhin was among the few who dared to complain about the military commanders to Putin. Prigozhin primarily targeted the MoD, characterizing its officials as corrupt. However, he also criticized other segments of the Russian elite, including the members of Russian parliament and Russian oligarchs, whom he accused of attempting to "steal everything that belongs to the people" during the war. In one of his statements, Prigozhin criticized Russian elite and their children for enjoying a luxurious and carefree life while ordinary people die in the war. Prigozhin drew parallels between this "division in society" and the one preceding the 1917 Russian Revolution, warning of potential uprisings by "soldiers and their loved ones" against such injustice. The Institute for the Study of War noted that Prigozhin's statements increased his influence within the ultranationalist Russian milblogger community.

Escalation during the battle of Bakhmut

A graveyard for dead Wagner fighters in Tyumen, Russia. Prigozhin claimed the Ministry of Defense's mismanagement led to "tens of thousands" of Wagner deaths in Bakhmut.

During the grueling battle of Bakhmut, tensions between the Wagner Group and the MoD reached a critical juncture. Prigozhin repeatedly voiced his dissatisfaction with the Kremlin's inadequate ammunition supply. He issued threats of withdrawing his forces unless his demands were fulfilled, specifically blaming Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov for the significant loss of life among Wagner fighters, which he claimed amounted to "tens of thousands" of casualties. According to the United States, nearly half of the 20,000 Russian troops who lost their lives in Ukraine from December 2022 to June 2023 were Wagner fighters who perished in the battle of Bakhmut.

Following the Russian proclamation of victory in Bakhmut in late May 2023, Wagner began withdrawing from the city, giving way to regular troops. Internal conflicts persisted between Wagner and the military during this transition. Prigozhin claimed that the military made attempts to assault his retreating forces on both 3 June and 5 June, further claiming that the Russian military had laid mines on the route taken by Wagner during their retreat from Bakhmut. On 5 June 2023, Prigozhin released a video through his social media platforms, purporting to depict the apprehended Lt. Colonel Roman Venevitin of Russia's 72nd Brigade, confessing to having ordered his troops to open fire on retreating Wagner forces, purportedly under the influence of alcohol.

On 27 May 2023, milblogger and former Defense Minister of the Donetsk People's Republic, Igor "Strelkov" Girkin accused Prigozhin of conspiring to employ the Wagner Group to orchestrate a coup within Russia. Girkin further claimed that Prigozhin was actively flouting the Russian 2022 war censorship laws by openly criticizing the Russian high command and that his forces were effectively in a state of mutiny. Prigozhin refuted these allegations, asserting that the Wagner Group did not possess a sufficiently large army to execute a coup.

Culmination of the Bakhmut battle, where Wagner played a pivotal role, marked the onset of a period of increasing isolation from the establishment. On 6 June 2023, Prigozhin made a public accusation, asserting that influential individuals were actively sabotaging his highly profitable catering enterprise in association with the Russian military. For more than ten years, these catering contracts had served as a source of his wealth and clout. Concurrently, Prigozhin witnessed a surge in popularity among the Russian populace, particularly among nationalists. In a May survey conducted by the Levada Center, respondents were asked to identify the politicians they trusted the most, and for the first time, Prigozhin emerged as one of the top ten names on the list, marking a notable shift in his public perception from non-political to political persona.

Order to integrate Wagner

In mid-June 2023, the MoD ordered the Wagner Group to sign contracts with the military before 1 July. This move effectively integrated Wagner as a subordinate unit within the regular command structure, thereby diminishing the influence of Prigozhin. However, Prigozhin declined to sign the agreement, alleging incompetence on the part of Shoigu. Reports from Meduza indicated that this development would undermine Prigozhin's hold over Wagner and jeopardize the group's profitable operations in Africa. Prigozhin unsuccessfully attempted to circumvent the order for Wagner's subordination while intensifying his criticism of the MoD. He went as far as advocating for the execution of Shoigu and hinting at a potential popular uprising against inept officials. Prigozhin believed that Putin would ultimately side with him in his struggle against the MoD if he lauched a mutiny.

Planning the rebellion

U.S. intelligence agencies observed a gradual accumulation of Wagner forces near the Russian border along with evidence of Wagner stockpiling equipment and resources in preparation for the rebellion. Although they obtained information regarding the where and how of the planned rebellion, the exact timing remained unknown. According to a source familiar with the matter, Western intelligence agencies uncovered the plan through communications intercepts and satellite image analysis. Several weeks prior to the actual event, U.S. intelligence started foreseeing a significant Wagner insurrection and had obtained solid evidence of the imminent rebellion before 21 June. Prigozhin seemed to have set the plan in motion following the MoD decision on 10 June, which would effectively integrate Wagner forces into the regular military. The foreign intelligence findings indicate that the revolt was planned in advance, contradicting Prigozhin's claim that the decision to rebel was made on 23 June.

Anonymous U.S. officials later disclosed to The New York Times that Army General Sergey Surovikin, who acted as an intermediary between Prigozhin and the military hierarchy and was perceived to have close ties to Prigozhin, had prior knowledge of the planned rebellion. CNN obtained documents that indicated Surovikin had a personal registration number with Wagner and held a covert VIP membership within the group, alongside at least 30 other high-ranking Russian military and intelligence officials. Additionally, there were indications that other Russian generals may have also lent their support to the uprising. U.S. officials asserted that Prigozhin would not have instigated the rebellion unless he harbored the belief that he had backing from specific sectors within the Russian power structure.

According to disclosures by Western officials to the The Wall Street Journal, the Russian Federal Security Service discovered the plan two days before it was scheduled to be executed. The discovery of the plan led to the premature initiation of the rebellion by Prigozhin which may have been one of the reasons for its subsequent failure. Prigozhin intended to capture Defense Minister Shoigu and chief of general staff Gerasimov during their planned joint visit to the southern region of Russia that borders Ukraine and Western officials said the plan had a good chance of success had it not been discovered, leading Prigozhin to improvise an alternative plan. Western officials said intelligence findings indicated that Prigozhin's plan rested on his belief that a part of the armed forces would join the rebellion. Western official said they believe Prigozhin informed some senior military offices about his plan. Commander of the Russian National Guard Viktor Zolotov has claimed that Russian authorities learned about the planned rebellion and that it would be executed between June 22 and June 25. According to anonymous accounts conveyed by Meduza, it's possible that the security services "didn’t have the nerve to tell the president that something's up with Prigozhin [...] because if they reported the problem, decisions would have to be made. And how would you make that decision?" According to Meduza's sources, after Prigozhin failed to evade the order to integrate Wagner into the regular military, "Some bad foreboding spread in the air, that something was about to happen." Kremlin officials "talked about it in meetings, and came to the conclusion that [Prigozhin] is a daring opportunist who doesn’t play by the rules. When it came to the risk of an armed insurrection, they thought it was nil." Consequently, they believed Prigozhin's announcement of an uprising to be a bluff intended to extract concessions, only realizing the seriousness of the situation once Wagner captured Rostov-on-Don. Lukashenko has said that both he and Putin had "slept through this situation" and that both "thought it would fizzle out on its own [when it started to develop]".

Many members of Wagner were not informed about the planned rebellion beforehand. As a result, they were perplexed by Prigozhin's call to arms and uncertain as to which faction they should align themselves with. Demobilized Wagner veterans were instructed to remain on standby and await orders from Prigozhin. Individuals in Moscow without any affiliation with Wagner reported receiving calls, seemingly from the Wagner Group, urging them to join a rally in support of the rebellion. Similar calls were made to residents of Rostov, soliciting support for the uprising.

Rebellion

Prigozhin's announcement

A crowd in Rostov-on-Don watching a Wagner tank with flowers sticking out of its muzzle

In a video released on 23 June 2023, Prigozhin claimed that the government's justifications for invading Ukraine were based on falsehoods, and that the invasion was designed to further the interests of Russian elites. He accused the MoD of attempting to deceive the public and the president by portraying Ukraine as an aggressive and hostile adversary which, in collaboration with NATO, was plotting an attack on Russian interests. Prigozhin alleged that Shoigu and the "oligarchic clan" had personal motives for initiating the war. Furthermore, he asserted that the Russian military command intentionally concealed the true number of soldiers killed in Ukraine, with casualties reaching up to 1,000 on certain days.

Later on 23 June, Prigozhin amplified a video that had already been circulating in Wagner-associated Telegram channels that reportedly showed the aftermath of a missile strike on a Wagner rear camp. Prigozhin accused the Russian MoD of conducting the strike, which he claimed killed 2,000 of his fighters. The MoD denied the allegations of attacking Wagner's rear camps, and the Institute for the Study of War was unable to confirm the veracity of the video, noting that it "may have been manufactured for informational purposes".

Prigozhin declared the start of an armed conflict against the Ministry of Defense in a message posted on his press service's Telegram channel. He called upon individuals interested in joining the conflict against the Ministry, accusing Shoigu of employing artillery and helicopters to assault Wagner. Additionally, Prigozhin claimed that Shoigu had cowardly fled from Rostov-on-Don at nine o'clock in the evening. Consequently, the Federal Security Service initiated legal proceedings against Prigozhin under Article 279 of the Criminal Code, which concerns armed rebellion.

Surovikin and lieutenant general Vladimir Alekseyev appealed to the Wagner fighters, urging them to cease hostilities. Surovikin made his remarks in what the Financial Times described as a "hostage-style video" and had, as of July 29, remained unaccounted for. State-run Channel One Russia broadcast an "emergency newscast," during which host Ekaterina Andreeva declared that Prigozhin's statements regarding alleged attacks by regular military forces on Wagner positions were false. Andreeva also mentioned that Putin had been briefed on the ongoing situation. In response to Prigozhin's statements, the country's military and National Guard deployed armored vehicles in both Moscow and Rostov-on-Don.

Capture of Rostov-on-Don

Prigozhin met with Russia's Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Yunus-bek Yevkurov in Rostov-on-Don. Yevkurov failed to convince Prigozhin to withdraw his troops.

During the early morning of 24 June, Wagner forces crossed into Russia's Rostov Oblast from Luhansk and swiftly captured Rostov-on-Don, encountering no apparent opposition. They successfully took control of the Southern Military District headquarters, establishing a secure perimeter in the adjacent streets. Notably, Prigozhin, captured on film, was seen within the courtyard of the headquarters building. The Wagner forces fortified their position by planting landmines and establishing security checkpoints in the city center of Rostov. Wagner members sported silver armbands to distinguish themselves.

Prigozhin held a meeting with Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov and Deputy Chief of Staff Vladimir Alekseyev at the headquarters, during which Yevkurov unsuccessfully attempted to persuade Prigozhin to withdraw his troops. Prigozhin then hunkered down in a bunker in the city and took up command as a detachment of some thousands of Wagner forces advanced on Moscow. Shooting and explosions were later heard. The Rostelecom building was fired at for unclear reasons. Unconfirmed videos hinted at confrontations between Wagner forces and the military within the city.

Many of Rostov's business and facilities remained closed. The municipal administration advised residents to stay at home (seemingly to little effect) but never instituted counter-terrorism measures. Local shops reduced their operating hours, and long queues formed at gas stations. Some residents tried to stock up on essentials, while others sought to leave the city, resulting in traffic congestion and lengthy lines at the train station. However, there was no widespread panic among the populace. Certain residents congregated in the city center to meet Wagner fighters; the majority was supportive, although a few engaged in arguments with them. The Wagner fighters were pointedly amicable with the residents. Wagner forces subsequently urged civilians to stay off the streets for their own safety after which shooting and explosions broke out.

Eyewitness footage depicted a long convoy of military and civilian vehicles heading towards the city, purportedly comprising Chechen paramilitaries (Kadyrovites) with the objective of engaging the Wagner forces. According to Chechen state media and various accounts, they did not reach the city center and did not enter into any hostilities. A commander of the Chechen forces later said that some of their teams had been as close as "500-700 meters from Wagner fighters".

Advance towards Moscow

Video of the Wagner Group convoy heading towards Moscow

After Wagner secured control over Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin split his forces and ordered a few thousand men to head to Moscow while he commanded the rebellion from a bunker in Rostov. The armored columns of Wagner, consisting of tanks, armored vehicles, anti-aircraft weaponry, and civilian trucks, began to advance rapidly towards Moscow in the early hours of 24 June, covering a distance of 1,100 kilometers (680 miles) from Rostov-on-Don. One column coming from Rostov, and another crossing over from the occupied territory of Ukraine, advanced across Voronezh Oblast with little resistance encountered. According to a source close to the leadership of the Donetsk People's Republic, the convoy bound for Moscow comprised approximately 5,000 combatants, under the leadership of the senior Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin. The column did not attempt to occupy any cities it passed through, although it might have taken control of several air bases.

Outside the regional capital of Voronezh, Wagner troops were attacked by a helicopter. The Air Force suffered significant losses while confronting Wagner troops, with six helicopters and an airborne command-center plane shot down. At least thirteen Russian military personnel were killed. Two missiles—likely fired by Wagner's air defense systems—struck an oil depot and a courtyard of a housing complex in Voronezh. Wagner fighters drove past Voronezh, more than halfway to Moscow, and continued to push through Voronezh Oblast throughout the early afternoon without entering important cities. Social media posts also showed footage of fighting between Wagner troops and the military in Voronezh proper, with Reuters citing military reports. According to media reports, Wagner group took control of all military facilities in the city.

Wagner proceeded into Lipetsk Oblast, approximately 400 kilometres (250 mi) from Moscow. They passed through the town of Yelets, and continued north along the M4 highway. In Lipetsk Oblast, authorities deliberately demolished highways using excavators in an effort to impede the convoy's progress. Some roadways were blocked with trucks and school buses. The military set up defensive lines along the Oka river (which flows just south of Moscow) and barricaded bridge crossings. The governors of Lipetsk Oblast and Voronezh Oblast urged all civilians to stay indoors, following reports of military columns and clashes along the M4 highway.

Russian government countermeasures

Sergei Sobyanin, the mayor of Moscow, declared the implementation of the counter-terrorism regime in the capital. Armoured vehicles and an increased presence of security forces was observed throughout Moscow. Municipal authorities contemplated a curfew, and billboards advertising Wagner recruitment were seen being hastily dismantled. Der Spiegel reported a complete sell-out of all flights departing from Moscow as people sought to escape the impending situation. According to the airplane-tracking website Flightradar24, an aircraft used by Putin took off from Moscow and headed towards St. Petersburg. However, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Putin was not on board, and he remained in the Kremlin. Authorities also announced travel restrictions in Kaluga Oblast, which is adjacent to Moscow, with Governor Vladislav Shapsha telling residents to "refrain from travelling by private vehicle on these roads unless absolutely necessary".

Meanwhile, the Federal Security Service (FSB) raided Wagner headquarters in Saint Petersburg. Unconfirmed reports in Russian media said cardboard boxes containing 4 billion rubles ($47 million) were discovered from vehicles near the office, and that cash in U.S. dollars, handguns, gold bars and packs of an unknown white powder were also seized. Prigozhin said that the money was intended for employee salaries, compensations to relatives of fallen Wagner fighters and other company expenses. He hinted at Wagner's covert global influence operations, including activities in Africa and the United States, which necessitated the use of cash. Olga Romanova, a journalist and leader of the Russian civil rights organization Russia Behind Bars, accused the FSB of threatening relatives of convicts recruited by Wagner since early hours of 24 June. According to The Daily Telegraph's anonymous sources, U.K. intelligence similiarly found that Russian intelligence agencies threatened to harm families of Wagner leaders during its advance on Moscow.

Resolution

Prigozhin allegedly made personal efforts to establish contact with the presidential administration on the afternoon of 24 June, including reaching out to Putin himself, who refused to speak with him. Final negotiations were reportedly conducted by Anton Vaino, the chief of staff, Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Security Council, and Boris Gryzlov, the Russian ambassador to Belarus. Prigozhin strongly insisted that high-ranking officials participate in the negotiations, with Putin's refusal to engage paving the way for Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's intervention. Lukashenko reportedly spoke with Prigozhin upon Putin's request, acting as a mediator to broker a settlement. The agreement entailed the Wagner fighters ceasing their advancement and returning to their base, in exchange for a guarantee of their safety.

In an audio statement, Prigozhin stated that he had accepted the deal to prevent bloodshed, and re-explained his motivations for the rebellion, emphasizing that it was not a coup attempt:

They wanted to disband the Wagner military company. We embarked on a march of justice on June 23. In 24 hours, we got to within 200 kilometers of Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of our fighters' blood. Now the moment has come when blood could be spilled. Understanding responsibility [for the chance] that Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our columns around and going back to field camps as planned.

— Yevgeny Prigozhin, official statement, Wagner press service's Telegram channel.

At around 11:00 p.m. (GMT+3) on 24 June, the Wagner Group commenced the withdrawal of their forces from Rostov-on-Don. Residents of Rostov-on-Don cheered Wagner troops as they left the city, and some approached Prigozhin's vehicle and shook Prigozhin's hand through the window. When asked to comment on the outcome of the revolt in the last known video of him during the rebellion, Prigozhin responded with levity: "It's normal, we have cheered everyone up". On 25 June, Wagner forces started to withdraw from Voronezh. Wagner forces reportedly returned to their positions in occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov announced that the charges against Prigozhin would be dropped and that Prigozhin would be sent to Belarus. According to Peskov, Wagner fighters would not face prosecution, and those who did not participate in the rebellion would have the option to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. Peskov further conveyed that the Wagner organization as a whole would return to its previous wartime deployment locations. Putin's office reportedly expressed gratitude to Lukashenko for his efforts in quelling the rebellion.

Reactions

Russian government

Vladimir Putin's address

Vladimir Putin addressing the nation about the Wagner Group rebellion

Vladimir Putin addressed the nation on 24 June, denouncing Wagner's actions as "treason" and vowing to take "harsh steps" to suppress the rebellion. He stated the situation threatened the existence of Russia itself. Putin drew historical parallels to the Russian Revolution, which unfolded during the Russian Empire's engagement on the Eastern Front of World War I and resulted in territorial losses in the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. Furthermore, Putin made an appeal to the Wagner forces who "by deceit or threats" had been "dragged" into participating in the rebellion.

In response, Prigozhin stated that his main goal was to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov from office and reiterated his accusations of corruption against the MoD.

After airing Putin's address, TV stations returned to their scheduled programming.

Other government-aligned figures

Prominent Russian establishment politicians called on Prigozhin to stop his rebellion and expressed support for Putin. Dmitry Medvedev, the leader of United Russia, the deputy chairman of the Security Council of Russia, and a former president of the country, stated that "the world will be put on the brink of destruction" if Wagner would be able to take control of the government and gain access to nuclear weapons.

Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of the Chechen Republic, called the situation "treason", and stated that his troops were en route to "zones of tension" to "preserve Russia's units and defend its statehood". Patriarch Kirill of Moscow, the spiritual leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, called on Russians to pray for Putin.

Russian civil society

Anti-war opposition

Russian opposition groups responded in a variety of ways. Exiled former oil magnate and opposition figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky urged Russians to support Prigozhin, saying that it was important to back "even the devil" if he decided to take on the Kremlin. However, he later urged Russians to arm themselves, while stating that "Prigozhin is not our friend and not even our ally". The anarchist organizations Combat Organization of Anarcho-Communists (BOAK) and Autonomous Action both expressed in separate statements that Prigozhin and Putin were equally despisable, and that anarchists had no "side" to take in the conflict. The BOAK urged fellow anarchists to "stay away", and let the warring factions "bleed each other as much as possible. That way, they won't be able to disturb people in the future." They also urged to "spend this time preparing for an armed conflict".

Russian Volunteer Corps leader Denis Kapustin praised Prigozhin, stating that despite their stark ideological differences, he considered Prigozhin "a patriot of Russia." He later called for joinning the rebellion. The Freedom of Russia Legion compared the events to those during the Russian Revolution but advised readers to remember Wagner's numerous war crimes. They urged people not to "attribute military honor and valor to [Prigozhin] which does not exist."

Ultranationalists and milbloggers

According to the ISW, Russian pro-war ultranationalists were divided between those who wanted to move past the rebellion and others who demanded solutions to the flaws in Russia's security exposed by the rebellion. Igor "Strelkov" Girkin called for the execution of Prigozhin for the rebellion and the "murder" of Russian officers, demanding it as "necessary for the preservation of Russia as a state."

Wider public

A Rostov man holding a Wagner Group flag during the rebellion

The Russian population displayed a predominantly "silent" and apathetic reaction towards the rebellion. In comparison to the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt, where numerous Turkish citizens actively participated in anti-coup demonstrations, Russia analyst Anna Matveeva noted the contrasting response. In the city of Rostov-on-Don occupied by Wagner forces, videos emerged of Russian civilians welcoming the rebels, bringing them amenities and cheering.

After explosions near Voronezh caused by Russian artillery fire, the previously existing internet meme "to bomb Voronezh", which referred to self-destructive blunders by the Russian government, resurfaced on Russian social media.

International

Western leaders mostly refrained from directly commenting on the rebellion as it unfolded and immediately after, primarily due to concerns that Putin would exploit such comments to claim that it was a foreign conspiracy. Additionally, concerns were raised over control of the Russian nuclear arsenal. U.S. president Joe Biden discussed the situation with French president Emmanuel Macron, German chancellor Olaf Scholz, and British prime minister Rishi Sunak.

Following the rebellion's conclusion, Biden was questioned on whether and how Putin has been weakened by Prigozhin's actions, in which he affirmed “absolutely” while making the gaffe “it’s hard to tell but he’s clearly losing the war in Iraq; he's losing the war at home.”

In a phone conversation on 24 June, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan conveyed to Putin that Turkey was ready to assist in finding a "peaceful resolution," urging him to act sensibly.

In Georgia, there were also demands for the closure of its border with Russia, but the Georgian Ministry of Internal Affairs stated that it was presently unnecessary. Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his advisor Mykhailo Podolyak, stated that the insurrection was evidence of Russia's political instability, "weakness", and infighting among the elite. Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called the rebellion an opportunity for the international community to "abandon false neutrality" on Russia and to provide Kyiv with all the weapons it needs to push Russian forces out of Ukraine.

Moldovan foreign minister Nicu Popescu said that the events in Russia were proof that Moldova should continue on its trajectory of distancing itself from the "Eurasian space of destruction and war" and towards the European Union to ensure peace, stability and democracy in the country.

Commenting on the negotiations, Belarusian President Lukashenko claimed to have convinced Putin to engage in dialogue with Prigozhin, the only individual with whom a negotiated settlement could be achieved, as opposed to resorting to assassination. Lukashenko further claimed that such a course of action would prevent a potentially chaotic situation instigated by leaderless Wagnerites. Lukashenko has also claimed that Belarus' national defense will benefit from Wagner's expertise. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya stated on Twitter that the rebellion exposed the "weakness" of Putin and other dictatorial regimes, and stated that "We must seize this moment now." Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment commander Dzianis Prokharaŭ expressed a similar sentiment in a video address on social media, calling on Belarusian military personnel not to interfere in the events. Valery Sakhashchyk, the Representative for Defence and National Security in the Belarusian United Transitional Cabinet in exile, called for a quick decision to either "use [the] historical chance and become a prosperous European country" or "lose everything". He called for the Belarusian military to assert the Nation's independence from Russia, to "unite the nation", and to "tune in to our wave and stay in touch".

A Belarusian foreign ministry official described the rebellion as a "gift to the collective West".

Milorad Dodik, the president of Republika Srpska and former member of the presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, voiced support for Putin in "his efforts to preserve peace and internal stability in Russia and restore order in the military and other forces", as did North Korea and China. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of the Ugandan President and commander of the Special Forces Command, stated that Uganda could send soldiers to Russia to help Putin in quelling the rebellion if necessary.

Aftermath

Fallout and restoring order

A sense of normalcy swiftly returned to Moscow. On 25 June, workers initiated the repairs of roads that had been destroyed to impede Wagner's advancement. Emergency counter-terrorism measures were lifted in Moscow on 26 June. Following the uprising, the Russian ruble exchange rate experienced a sharp decline, reaching its lowest point since March 2022. On 26 June, the MoD made an official announcement stating that Shoigu had paid a visit to the Russian troops stationed in Ukraine. Shoigu was prominently featured in state media coverage, often appearing alongside Putin, in the following days, in an apparent show of confidence. Moreover, Putin undertook a series of public meet-and-greets, a departure from his typically secretive nature, seemingly aiming to showcase public backing.

Prigozhin and Putin's statements

On 26 June, Prigozhin released a recorded statement in which he defended the insurrection. He claimed that the objective was to save the Wagner Group and hold accountable inept government officials. Prigozhin emphasized that the uprising aimed not to overthrow the government and reiterated his accusation that the shelling of Wagner troops by the regular military sparked the rebellion. He asserted that the rebellion was halted to prevent a massacre and alleged that regular military forces were the first to open fire during the uprising, resulting in the deaths of around 30 Wagner members. Prigozhin also favorably compared Wagner's ability to credibly threaten to capture Moscow with the military's failed attempt to capture Kyiv.

Hours after Prigozhin's audio message, Putin addressed the nation once again. He rebuked the unnamed individuals who led the rebellion and reiterated his belief that it constituted an act of betrayal. However, Putin characterized Wagner commanders and fighters as predominantly patriots who were "covertly used against their comrades-in-arms." He confirmed that Russian servicemen were killed by Wagner, referring to them as heroes. Putin also stated that members of the group who do not wish to become regular contractors were allowed to transfer to Belarus.

Fate of Wagner Group

On 27 June, Russian authorities said they had closed the criminal investigation and dropped the charges against Prigozhin or any other participants in the rebellion, and that Wagner's heavy military equipment was to be transferred to the Russian armed forces. The authorities stated that rebels had "stopped the actions directly aimed at committing a crime". In Belarus, construction of camps for the Wagner Group was reported to have begun in Mogilev Region. However, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stated there was no evidence that such camps were being built. On the same day, Lukashenko confirmed the arrival of Prigozhin in Belarus, saying that he was welcome to stay "for some time".

On 29 June, the BBC rang over a "dozen" recruitment centres using Russian phone numbers including, in Volgograd, Krasnodar, Murmansk and Kaliningrad. The BBC was told that they were still signing contracts with the Wagner group and not the Russian MoD. A man in Volgograd said to the BBC: "It's absolutely nothing to do with the defence ministry...Nothing has stopped, we're still recruiting."

Measures of NATO countries

In response to events, Estonia strengthened its border security, while Latvia closed its border with Russia and suspended the entry of Russian citizens. Concerned about the potential concentration of Wagner forces in neighboring Belarus, Latvia and Lithuania made a joint request to NATO for additional troops to be deployed to their countries, specifically along the eastern border of the alliance. Responding to earlier tentative plans to reinforce Lithuania, German Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius announced on 26 June that Germany, as the leading nation of the existing NATO battle group stationed in Lithuania, would dispatch a complete brigade consisting of 4,000 troops. This deployment aims to establish the necessary infrastructure for permanent stationing by 2026.

Possible purge of suspected rebellion sympathizers

Multiple publications have reported that General Surovikin had been arrested by Russian authorities after the rebellion. The milblogger, Rybar, a former press officer for the Russian MoD claimed that a purge was underway, targeting Russian generals who demonstrated "a lack of decisiveness" when dealing with Wagner. Since the rebellion General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, hasn't been seen in public. On 29 June, Colonel-General Andrei Yudin was fired from the Russian army. He was the deputy to General Surovikin prior to his sacking.

Analysis

Political assessment

The rebellion, the first of its kind in Russia since the constitutional crisis of 1993, was widely regarded in the following days as the most significant challenge to Putin's 23-year-long reign. Multiple publications have noted that the rebellion has weakened Putin's public image. Andrey Kolesnikov expressed a view that although the rebellion eroded Putin's image, the Russian population does not view Prigozhin's challenge to the establishment as a credible alternative. Therefore, they are likely to continue providing support, whether genuine or feigned, to Putin's administration. According to some analysts, the rebellion laid bare an inherent weakness of Putin's system of power built upon a ruling coalition of competing power centers and a structure of subordinate "nominal" institutions that was strained by the descent into a militarised state and society. According to a New York Times analysis, the rebellion undermined Putin's legitimacy which relies on being viewed as a guarantor of stability and security, which may cause a lasting erosion of support among the Russian power elite. According to Meduza, the rebellion did not last long enough to show whether Prigozhin's radical populist rhetoric enjoyed a genuine base of support among Russia's security services. According to The Guardian, there were no sizeable spontaneous displays of public support for the Putin government during the rebellion.

Prigozhin's failed rebellion has been described as a desperate last-ditch effort in a losing power struggle against factions within the Russian establishment that he despised. According to some commentators, the rebellion ended with relatively few immediate repercussions for the perpetrators that had been labelled as traitors by Putin, suggesting that Putin's rule was weak enough to challenge.

The head of the Russian National Guard, Viktor Zolotov, was described as emerging victorious from the rebellion. Zolotov claimed credit and was praised by Putin for defending the capital Moscow against the Wagner Group. On 27 June, Putin declared that the Russian National Guard would be equipped with heavy weapons, including tanks, in order to suppress any potential future uprisings and assume a more prominent position in the Russo-Ukraine conflict. According to Time magazine, Zolotov's increased authority may signify the initiation of a purge of Putin's opponents.

The Institute for the Study of War has claimed that Lukashenko is using his role in resolving the rebellion to gain influence and leverage in his relation with Russia, and that he may use the presence of Wagner to reduce Belarus' dependence on the Russian military.

Military assessment

British intelligence reportedly estimated that some 8,000 Wagner fighter participated in the rebellion. According to a senior U.S. Department of Defense official, U.S. intelligence agencies monitored the defection of large numbers of Russian soldiers from their military commanders, who then joined the Wagner movement. The official further stated that the operations carried out by Wagner were widely supported by soldiers and officers deployed inside Ukraine as well as in Russian territory and bases near the Ukrainian border. U.S. and allied officials and independent experts consulted by The New York Times said that Prigozhin appeared to believe that a significant part of the Russian military would take his side during the rebellion. Prigozhin himself claimed that two Russian military defectors were killed while fighting alongside Wagner. Western officials believed that Prigozhin would have faced a decisive defeat had he tried to capture Moscow and that this was likely the reason why Prigozhin ultimately agreed to a negotiated resolution. According to Western intelligence analysis, had a negotiated solution not been reached, the rebellion would have likely culminated in a violent showdown in Moscow, resulting in the deaths of thousands. U.S. officials expressed concerns regarding the safety of Russia's nuclear stockpile during this period.

The Institute for the Study of War commented that "the rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin's inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force"; and that the Russian military's combat capabilities did not seem to be "substantially impacted" by the rebellion. According to CNN, allies cautioned Ukraine to avoid taking advantage of the rebellion to conduct strikes inside Russian territory. According to analysts consulted by The New York Times, the enduring systemic problems within the Russian military, which were strongly criticized by Prigozhin and widely condemned by the soldiers, were likely to persist following the rebellion. This, in turn, will exacerbate the decline in morale.

See also

• Timeline of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (8 June 2023 – present)
• Kornilov affair, a coup d'état attempt by General Lavr Kornilov against the Russian Provisional Government in September 1917
• 1991 Soviet coup d'état attempt, an attempted coup by the State Committee on the State of Emergency against President Mikhail Gorbachev in August
• 1993 Russian constitutional crisis, a military and political conflict between President Boris Yeltsin, the Supreme Soviet of Russia and the Congress of People's Deputies of Russia in October

External links

• Media related to Wagner Group rebellion at Wikimedia Commons