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2018 Florida gubernatorial election

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Florida gubernatorial election, 2018
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Nominee TBD TBD
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate TBD TBD
Incumbent Governor

Rick Scott
Republican



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The 2018 Florida gubernatorial election will be held on November 6, 2018, alongside a U.S. Senate election, U.S. House elections, and other state and local elections. Incumbent two-term Republican Governor Rick Scott is term-limited. Florida elects its Governor and Lieutenant Governor on a joint ticket.

The candidate filing deadline for this gubernatorial race is June 22, 2018, with primary elections being held on August 28, 2018. Florida uses a closed primary process, in which the selection of each party's candidates for a general election is limited to registered members of that party.[1]

Background

A Democratic candidate has not won a gubernatorial election in Florida since 1994 when Governor Lawton Chiles was elected to a second term.

The winner of this election will be involved in the redistricting process following the 2020 Census. Under Florida state law, the state legislature is responsible for drawing boundaries for Congressional and state legislative seats. The governor has the power to veto U.S. House boundaries, but not state legislative ones.

Nearly 100,000 Puerto Ricans, a largely Democratic voter demographic, have moved to Florida after the island was ravaged by Hurricane Maria in September 2017. It is expected that this large influx of potential voters could drastically reshape future elections.[2]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Ron DeSantis
U.S. Executive Branch officials
State Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Adam Putnam
Statewide officials
Sheriffs
Organizations
Jack Latvala (withdrawn)
U.S. Representatives
Bob White
U.S. Representatives

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Richard
Corcoran 		Ron
DeSantis 		Jack
Latvala 		Adam
Putnam 		Bob
White 		Other Undecided
Florida Atlantic University July 20–21, 2018 262 ± 6.0% – 36% – 27% 3% 12%[50] 23%
Clearview Research July 14–19, 2018 700 ± 4.0% – 38% – 39% – – 23%
St. Pete Polls July 16–17, 2018 1,709 ± 2.4% – 50% – 30% 4% – 17%
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 905 ± 3.3% – 35% – 29% 4% 4%[51] 25%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R) July 8–12, 2018 349 ± 5.2% – 42% – 30% – – 27%
Remington (R-Tenth Amendment Project) July 2–5, 2018 2,826 ± 1.8% – 43% – 26% – – 25%
1892 Polling (R-DeSantis) July 2, 2018 800 ± 3.4% – 47% – 28% – – 25%
NBC News/Marist June 17–21, 2018 326 ± 6.7% – 21% – 38% – 3% 39%
Fox News June 15–19, 2018 901 ± 3.0% – 17% – 32% 3% 5%[52] 39%
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 543 ± 4.2% 4% 19% – 29% 5% – 43%
Cherry Communications June 7–9, 2018 501 ± 5.3% – 15% – 32% – 5% 48%
Saint Leo University May 25–31, 2018 175 – – 13% – 35% – 9% 44%
Florida Atlantic University May 4–7, 2018 371 ± 5.0% – 16% – 15% 3% 24%[53] 43%
1892 Polling (R-DeSantis) April 19–23, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 7% 30% – 23% – – 40%
– 30% – 26% – – 44%
Gravis Marketing February 26 – March 19, 2018 – – 3% 19% 0% 17% 0% – 60%
North Star Opinion Research (R-DeSantis) March 12–15, 2018 600 – <6% 21% – 19% – – –
– 28% – 23% – – –
Saint Leo University February 18–24, 2018 175 – 7% 14% 3% 15% 5% 9%[54] 46%
Gravis Marketing February 1–18, 2018 – – 3% 16% 0% 18% 2% – 61%
Mason-Dixon January 29 – February 1, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 7% 23% – 27% – – 43%
Remington December 30–31, 2017 1,423 ± 2.6% 3% 28% – 25% – – 44%
Gravis Marketing December 19–24, 2017 – – 2% 12% 2% 23% 1% – 60%
Saint Leo University November 19–24, 2017 166 – 2% 5% 2% 15% 4% 10%[55] 63%
Cherry Communications September 17–24, 2017 256 – 1% 9% 2% 26% – 3% 59%
Saint Leo University September 10–16, 2017 173 – 4% 7% 2% 20% 2% 11%[56] 44%
Florida Atlantic University August 24–26, 2017 304 ± 6.5% 10% 9% 2% 27% – – 53%

Results

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Don Baldauf
Republican Ron DeSantis
Republican Timothy M. Devine
Republican Bob Langford
Republican John Joseph Mercadante
Republican Bruce Nathan
Republican Adam H. Putnam
Republican Bob White
Total votes 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Andrew Gillum
U.S. Cabinet Members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal leaders
Other individuals
Organizations
Gwen Graham
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal leaders
Other individuals
Organizations
Chris King
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal officials
Organizations
Philip Levine
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal officials
Other individuals

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Andrew
Gillum 		Gwen
Graham 		Jeff
Greene 		Chris
King 		Philip
Levine 		Other Undecided
Florida Atlantic University July 20–21, 2018 271 ± 5.9% 7% 20% 14% 9% 16% 3% 31%
Associated Industries of Florida July 16–18, 2018 800 – 12% 24% 13% 4% 16% – –
Frederick Polls July 2018 506 – 15% 28% 23% 7% 27% – –
St. Pete Polls July 14–15, 2018 1,314 ± 2.7% 10% 22% 22% 3% 19% 1%[188] 25%
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 1,540 ± 2.5% 10% 27% 18% – 17% – 27%
NBC News/Marist June 17–21, 2018 344 ± 6.5% 8% 17% 4% 3% 19% 1% 47%
RABA Research June 15–16, 2018 660 ± 3.8% 8% 26% 3% 15% 27% – 21%
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 29% 24% – 3% 17% – 27%
Let's Preserve the American Dream June 6–9, 2018 800 ± 3.1% 11% 21% 3% 4% 24% – 37%
Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D) June 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 11% 16% 4% 6% 32% – 31%
Saint Leo University May 25–31, 2018 195 – 10% 14% – 6% 14% 9% 47%
Public Policy Polling (D-Levine) May 21–22, 2018 583 – 12% 20% – 6% 30% – 33%
Change Research (D-Gillum) May 8–11, 2018 1,107 ± 3.0% 13% 13% – 3% 20% – 52%
Florida Atlantic University May 4–7, 2018 372 ± 3.0% 6% 15% – 10% 16% 11%[189] 42%
Public Policy Polling April 10–11, 2018 491 – 8% 23% – 4% 29% – 36%
Public Policy Polling March 23–25, 2018 613 – 8% 19% – 5% 22% – 46%
Gravis Marketing February 26 – March 19, 2018 – – 11% 9% 2% 2% 13% – 64%
Saint Leo University February 18–24, 2018 190 – 10% 17% 5% 7% 8% 3% 50%
Gravis Marketing February 1–18, 2018 – – 9% 12% 1% 2% 12% – 63%
Mason-Dixon January 29 – February 1, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 10% 20% – 4% 17% – 49%
Gravis Marketing December 19–24, 2017 – – 12% 18% 2% 3% 6% – 60%

Results

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andrew Gillum
Democratic Gwen Graham
Democratic Jeff Greene
Democratic Chris King
Democratic Philip Levine
Democratic Alex "Lundy" Lundmark
Democratic John Wetherbee
Total votes 100.0%

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Withdrawn

  • Riquet Caballero, banker, Afro-Cuban activist, and former member of the Black Affairs Advisory Board of Miami-Dade County. Ended campaign to run for State House District 108[190]
  • Randy Wiseman, former Republican Chair of the Lake County School Board, Republican candidate for the State House in 2004 and candidate for Mayor of Mount Dora in 2013[191]

Constitution Party

Candidates

Withdrawn

Reform Party

Candidates

Declared

  • Darcy Richardson, author, 2012 Democratic candidate for President, 1988 US Senate candidate, 1980 Pennsylvania Auditor general candidate[194]

Independents

Candidates

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

John Morgan (declined)

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[199] Tossup January 26, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[200] Tossup April 6, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[201] Tossup April 5, 2017
Daily Kos[202] Tossup June 5, 2018

Polling

with Adam Putnam and Andrew Gillum
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Adam
Putnam (R) 		Andrew
Gillum (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 1,840 ± 2.3% 41% 35% 29%
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 39% 42% 20%
Gravis Marketing February 26 – March 19, 2018 2,212 ± 2.1% 34% 28% 38%
Gravis Marketing February 1–18, 2018 1,978 ± 2.2% 30% 30% 40%
Gravis Marketing December 19–24, 2017 5,778 ± 1.3% 31% 31% 39%
Cherry Communications September 17–24, 2017 615 – 40% 33% –
Gravis Marketing March 28–29, 2017 1,453 ± 2.6% 32% 31% 37%
with Adam Putnam and Gwen Graham
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Adam
Putnam (R) 		Gwen
Graham (D) 		Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 1,840 ± 2.3% 40% 39% – 20%
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 39% 45% – 17%
Saint Leo University May 25–31, 2018 506 ± 4.5% 25% 20% 13% 43%
Public Policy Polling April 10–11, 2018 661 – 36% 37% – 27%
Gravis Marketing February 26 – March 19, 2018 2,212 ± 2.1% 34% 32% – 34%
Saint Leo University February 18–24, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 22% 18% 14% 45%
Gravis Marketing February 1–18, 2018 1,978 ± 2.2% 33% 29% – 38%
Gravis Marketing December 19–24, 2017 5,778 ± 1.3% 32% 32% – 37%
Cherry Communications September 17–24, 2017 615 – 39% 37% – –
Gravis Marketing March 28–29, 2017 1,453 ± 2.6% 32% 34% – 35%
Cherry Communications December 3–8, 2016 606 – 39% 36% – 25%
Gravis Marketing November 22–25, 2016 3,250 ± 2.4% 34% 37% – 30%
with Adam Putnam and Jeff Greene
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Adam
Putnam (R) 		Jeff
Greene (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 1,840 ± 2.3% 41% 39% 20%
with Adam Putnam and Chris King
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Adam
Putnam (R) 		Chris
King (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 39% 38% 23%
Cherry Communications September 17–24, 2017 615 – 40% 31% –
with Adam Putnam and Philip Levine
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Adam
Putnam (R) 		Philip
Levine (D) 		Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 1,840 ± 2.3% 43% 38% – 19%
Public Policy Polling (D) June 18–19, 2018 1,308 – 38% 43% – –
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 39% 43% – 19%
Saint Leo University May 25–31, 2018 506 ± 4.5% 24% 20% 11% 44%
Public Policy Polling April 10–11, 2018 661 – 37% 41% – 23%
Cherry Communications September 17–24, 2017 615 – 40% 32% – –
with Ron DeSantis and Andrew Gillum
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Andrew
Gillum (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 1,840 ± 2.3% 39% 36% 25%
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 35% 38% 27%
Gravis Marketing February 26 – March 19, 2018 2,212 ± 2.1% 29% 33% 37%
with Ron DeSantis and Gwen Graham
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Gwen
Graham (D) 		Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 1,840 ± 2.3% 38% 42% – 20%
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 34% 44% – 22%
Saint Leo University May 25–31, 2018 506 ± 4.5% 16% 22% 13% 49%
Public Policy Polling April 10–11, 2018 661 – 36% 40% – 24%
Gravis Marketing February 26 – March 19, 2018 2,212 ± 2.1% 30% 33% – 37%
with Ron DeSantis and Jeff Greene
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Jeff
Greene (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 1,840 ± 2.3% 39% 39% 22%
with Ron DeSantis and Chris King
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Chris
King (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 35% 37% 29%
with Ron DeSantis and Philip Levine
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Philip
Levine (D) 		Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing July 13–14, 2018 1,840 ± 2.3% 40% 38% – 22%
Public Policy Polling (D) June 18–19, 2018 1,308 – 36% 41% – –
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 33% 43% – 24%
Saint Leo University May 25–31, 2018 506 ± 4.5% 17% 22% 12% 49%
Public Policy Polling April 10–11, 2018 661 – 37% 42% – 22%
with Bob White and Andrew Gillum
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bob
White (R) 		Andrew
Gillum (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 28% 38% 35%
with Bob White and Gwen Graham
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bob
White (R) 		Gwen
Graham (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 27% 44% 29%
with Bob White and Chris King
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bob
White (R) 		Chris
King (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 28% 36% 36%
with Bob White and Philip Levine
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Bob
White (R) 		Philip
Levine (D) 		Undecided
Gravis Marketing May 31 – June 15, 2018 485 ± 4.5% 29% 42% 29%

Results

Florida General Election 2018
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican
Democratic
Reform Darcy G. Richardson
Independent Ryan Christopher Foley
Independent Kyle "KC" Gibson
Independent Raphael Herman
Independent Bruce Stanley
Total votes 100.0%

See also

References

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  51. ^ Armando Rivas with 4%
  52. ^ Tim Devine, Ellen Wilds, Armando Rivas, and Bruce Nathan with 1%; Raphael Herman, Issak Almaleh, Joseph Mercadante, Frederick Dee Buntin, and Don Baldauf with <0.5%; Usha Jain with 0%; other with 1%
  53. ^ David Adams 8%, Tim Devine 5%, Bruce Nathan 2%, Don Baldauf 1%, someone else 8%
  54. ^ Bruce Nathan 2%, Angel Luis Rivera 2%, someone else 5%
  55. ^ Jackie Siegel 2%, Ron Bergeron 1%, Angel Luis Rivera 1%, Daniel Zutler 1%, someone else 5%
  56. ^ Daniel Zutler 3%, Jackie Siegel 2%, Ron Bergeron 1%, Bruce Nathan 1%, Angel Luis Rivera 1%, Usha Jain 0%, someone else 3%
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  177. ^ "Ruth's List: After 20 Years of Republican Rule, It's Time for a Woman to Fix Tallahassee's Broken Government" (Press release). Tallahassee, Florida: Graham for Governor. January 10, 2018. Retrieved January 12, 2018.
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  188. ^ Alex "Lundy" Lundmark and John Wetherbee with 0%
  189. ^ Louis McClanahan 2%, Josue Larose 1%, someone else 8%
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Official campaign websites
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