2024 Republican Party presidential primaries: Difference between revisions
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2,467 delegates (2,392 pledged and 75 unpledged) to the Republican National Convention[2][a] 1,234[2] votes needed to win | |||
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Presidential primaries and caucuses are being organized by state Republican parties and legislatures between January and June 2024 to select their delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention to be held in July to determine the party's nominee for president of the United States in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The elections will take place individually in all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories.
Former President Donald Trump initiated his run for president in November 2022, a week after the 2022 midterm elections and two years ahead of the 2024 election. Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley became the first to follow him on February 14, followed by wealth management executive Vivek Ramaswamy one week later, businessman Perry Johnson on March 2, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson on April 6, radio host Larry Elder on April 20, U.S. Senator Tim Scott on May 19, Florida governor Ron DeSantis on May 24, former Vice President Mike Pence on June 5, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie on June 6, North Dakota governor Doug Burgum on June 7, Miami mayor Francis Suarez on June 14, and former U.S. Representative Will Hurd on June 22.
Trump is the early frontrunner, and has maintained a consistent lead in primary polling since 2020. Some Republicans have expressed apprehension about nominating Trump, owing to his loss to Joe Biden in 2020, the multiple ongoing criminal investigations into him, and the results of the 2022 midterms, when several Trump-endorsed candidates lost key races. However, many other Republicans have stood by Trump and decried the investigations into him as politically motivated. Among the non-Trump candidates, DeSantis has consistently led in polling, though he has yet to approach the support enjoyed by Trump.
Trump is the first president to run after leaving office since Herbert Hoover in 1940; if he wins, he will be the first president to serve non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland, who won his second term in 1892.[3] Meanwhile, Pence's candidacy makes him the first vice president to run against the president under whom they served since John Nance Garner in 1940,[4] while Burgum is the first person born in North Dakota to run for president.[5]
Candidates
Declared major candidates
The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office; have been included in at least five national polls.
Other declared candidates
The candidates in this section are otherwise notable, but have not met the criteria outlined above.
- John Anthony Castro, tax consultant and perennial candidate[33]
- Steve Laffey, mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island (2003–2007)[34]
- Corey Stapleton, Montana Secretary of State (2017–2021), member of the Montana Senate from the 27th district (2001–2009)[35]
Decision pending
As of June 2023[update], the following notable individuals are expected to make a decision regarding their official candidacy within a set timeline.
- Mike Rogers, United States Representative from MI-08 (2001–2015), member of the Michigan Senate from the 26th district (1995–2001)[36] (decision expected in June 2023)[37]
Potential candidates
As of June 2023[update], there has been speculation about the potential candidacy of the following notable individuals within the previous six months.
- Greg Abbott, 48th Governor of Texas (2015–present), 50th Texas Attorney General (2002–2015), Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of Texas (1996–2001)[38][39]
- John Bolton, 27th United States National Security Advisor (2018–2019), 25th United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006), 3rd Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs (2001–2005), 18th Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs (1989–1993), U.S. Assistant Attorney General (1985–1989)[40][41]
- Brian Kemp, 83rd Governor of Georgia (2019–present), 27th Georgia Secretary of State (2010–2018), member of the Georgia Senate from the 46th district (2003–2007)[42][43]
- Kristi Noem, 33rd Governor of South Dakota (2019–present), United States Representative from SD-AL (2011–2019), member of the South Dakota House of Representatives from the 6th district (2007–2011)[44][45]
- Rick Perry, 14th United States Secretary of Energy (2017–2019), 47th Governor of Texas (2000–2015), 39th Lieutenant Governor of Texas (1999–2000), 9th Agriculture Commissioner of Texas (1991–1999), Member of the Texas House of Representatives (1985–1991)[46][47]
- Glenn Youngkin, 74th Governor of Virginia (2022–present)[48] (will reconsider after the 2023 Virginia elections)[49]
Declined to be candidates
The following notable individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Senator from Tennessee (2019–present), United States Representative from TN-07 (2003–2019), member of the Tennessee Senate from the 23rd district (1999–2003)[50] (endorsed Trump)[51]
- Tucker Carlson, host of Tucker Carlson Tonight (2016–2023) and co-founder of The Daily Caller[52][53][54]
- Liz Cheney, United States Representative from WY-AL (2017–2023), Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (2002–2004, 2005–2009) (considering independent run)[55]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present), United States Representative from AR-04 (2013–2015)[56]
- Dan Crenshaw, United States Representative from TX-02 (2019–present)[57][58]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. Senator from Texas (2013–present), 3rd Texas Solicitor General (2003–2008), candidate for president in 2016 (running for re-election)[59][60]
- Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa (2015–present), member of the Iowa Senate from the 12th district (2011–2014), Montgomery County Auditor (2005–2011)[61][62]
- Josh Hawley, U.S. Senator from Missouri (2019–present), 42nd Missouri Attorney General (2017–2019)[63] (running for re-election)[64]
- Larry Hogan, 62nd Governor of Maryland (2015–2023), Maryland Secretary of Appointments (2003–2007)[65]
- Adam Kinzinger, United States Representative from IL-16 (2011–2023)[66][67]
- Dan Patrick, 42nd Lieutenant Governor of Texas (2015–present), member of the Texas Senate from the 7th district (2007–2015)[68][69] (endorsed Trump)[70]
- Rand Paul, U.S. Senator from Kentucky (2011–present), candidate for president in 2016[71][72]
- Mike Pompeo, 70th United States Secretary of State (2018–2021), 6th Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (2017–2018), United States Representative from KS-04 (2011–2017)[73]
- Mitt Romney, U.S. Senator from Utah (2019–present), 70th Governor of Massachusetts (2003–2007), nominee for president in 2012 and candidate in 2008[74][75]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida (2011–present), 94th Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives (2006–2008) from the 111th district (2000–2008), member of the West Miami City Commission (1998–2000), candidate for president in 2016[76][77][78]
- Paul Ryan, 54th Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (2015–2019) from WI-01 (1999–2019) and nominee for vice president in 2012[79][80]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present), 45th Governor of Florida (2011–2019) (running for re-election)[81]
- Chris Sununu, 82nd Governor of New Hampshire (2017–present), member of the New Hampshire Executive Council (2011–2017)[82][83]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman, executive vice president of The Trump Organization, son of former president Donald Trump[84][85]
- Ivanka Trump, Senior Advisor to the President of the United States (2017–2021), daughter of former president Donald Trump[86][87]
- Scott Walker, 45th Governor of Wisconsin (2011–2019), 5th Milwaukee County Executive (2002–2010), member of the Wisconsin State Assembly from the 14th district (1993–2002), candidate for president in 2016[88][77]
Vice presidential speculation
Multiple reporters, political analysts and commentators have noted that Trump selecting his former Vice President Mike Pence to be his running mate once again would be highly unlikely following rifts between the two over the future of the Republican Party and Pence's attempts to distance himself from the former president.[89][90][91] On March 15, 2022, Trump announced that if he ran for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, Pence would not be his running mate.[92] In June 2022, the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack found that Trump said Pence "deserved" calls to be hanged on the day of the attack.[93] Pence has similarly stated that he has no interest in accepting the vice presidential nomination again.[94]
Several individuals have received speculation about possible selection as vice presidential nominee in 2024 including Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa, Senator Rick Scott of Florida, and Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nuñez of Florida.[95][96] There has been speculation that former U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin of New York could become DeSantis' running mate after his strong performance in the 2022 New York gubernatorial election.[97] and both holding several rallies before and after the election together.[98][99] Some have speculated that former United Nations Ambassador and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley could be Trump's running mate.[100] Reportedly, Trump has "repeatedly" discussed the possibility of choosing United States Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate.[101] Greene has claimed that she is in talks with Trump to become his running mate.[102]
On March 6, 2023, multiple sources close to Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner, as reported by Axios, ran the list down to four major contenders. These were Haley; Sarah Huckabee Sanders, former White House press secretary for Trump and current governor of Arkansas, who has received media attention for her executive orders; Kristi Noem, governor of South Dakota; and Kari Lake, candidate for Arizona governor in 2022 who lost narrowly to Katie Hobbs. According to Axios, Trump's major factor in the race is loyalty, something he sees strongly in Lake given her reiterations of the claims of a stolen 2020 election.[103]
Timeline
2022
A week after the 2022 midterm elections, at Mar-a-Lago, former president Donald Trump announced that he would run again in 2024. He is seeking to become the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.[104]
2023
February 2023
On February 14, former South Carolina governor and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley announced her presidential candidacy, making her the second major candidate in the race.[105]
On February 21, anti-environmental, social and corporate governance activist Vivek Ramaswamy announced his presidential candidacy on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[106]
March 2023
On March 2, businessman Perry Johnson, a Michigan gubernatorial candidate in 2022, who failed to qualify for collecting fake donor signatures, announced his intent to run for president of the United States.[21]
April 2023
On April 2, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson announced his candidacy during an interview with ABC News' Jonathan Karl.[107]
On April 12, the junior U.S. Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott announced an exploratory committee to run for president.[108]
On April 20, former California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder announced his campaign on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[109]
May 2023
On May 19, Tim Scott submitted FEC paperwork to run;[110] he announced his presidential run publicly on May 22.[111]
On May 24, Florida governor and former U.S. representative Ron DeSantis submitted his FEC paperwork to run,[112] and announced that he was running for president during a Twitter Spaces interview with Twitter owner Elon Musk.[113]
June 2023
On June 5, former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork to run for president[114] and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum released a campaign video.[115]
On June 6, Burgum published an announcement opinion-editorial piece announce his presidential run in the Wall Street Journal,[116] making him the first North Dakotan to run for president.[117] The same day, former New Jersey governor and 2016 presidential candidate Chris Christie publicly announced a presidential campaign in New Hampshire.[118]
On June 7, Pence publicly announced his bid with a campaign video.[119][120][121] Also, Burgum delivered a public announcement speech in Fargo.[122]
On June 14, Miami mayor Francis Suarez filed his run with the Federal Election Commission. He delivered a speech the next day at the Reagan Library to publicly announce his campaign, as four other Republicans in the race had done in the last year.[123][124][125][126][127]
On June 22, former CIA agent and representative of Texas Will Hurd launched a run, after previously expressing interest in launching a presidential bid.[128]
August 2023
The first Republican candidates debate, with the possibility of a second the following day, will take place in Milwaukee on August 23. It will be moderated by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.[129]
Overview
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Active campaign | Exploratory committee | Withdrawn candidate | |||
Primaries | Midterm elections | Republican National Convention |
Background
Despite losing his re-election bid in 2020, Trump remains the main front-runner of the GOP and endorsed challengers to several House members who had voted to impeach him, as well as pushing several candidates through for open races. These candidates had a lackluster performance resulting in the Republicans taking control of the house with only a small majority and causing a dip in Trump's popularity within the party. Many Republicans cited Trump endorsing low-quality candidates as the reason for their slim majority.[130]At the same time Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, won nearly 60% of the vote in a landslide victory in his gubernatorial re-election.[131]
Media coverage consistently portrayed DeSantis as Trump's main rival, despite DeSantis not having announced a presidential run.[132][133] DeSantis rose in GOP aggregate polls throughout 2022, eventually reaching 11 points behind Trump. Since the beginning of the year, Trump has resurged and DeSantis has fallen behind. This has been fueled by sentiments against an indictment of Trump on March 30. National polling against incumbent president Biden shows nearly the exact result regardless of which is the GOP nominee, but because of DeSantis' prominence being more recent, more GOP voters are undecided on him than Trump.[134][135][136][137]In March 2023, Trump attacked DeSantis with nicknames like "Meatball Ron" and "Ron DeSanctimonious".[138]
Trump received his first indictment on March 30[139] and was arrested on April 4.[140] On April 25, Trump suggested he would skip Republican debates, saying he did not want to be "libeled and abused" in them and boasting that he already had a "seemingly insurmountable" lead.[141] On May 10, Trump conducted a live town hall with CNN, his first time with a major network other than Fox News since storming off an interview with 60 Minutes in October 2020.[142]
Trump's poll numbers surged immediately after the New York State indictment was announced. A Yahoo News poll shows that in a Republican primary, 57% of respondents would vote for Trump.[143] In a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll, 80% of Republicans surveyed said Trump was being unfairly targeted.[144] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[92]
Debates
The first debate is scheduled for August 23, 2023, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to be hosted by Fox News, with the possibility of a second the next day. It will be roughly 5 months before primaries begin.[145] Another will take place later at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley[146] as happened in 2016.[147]
Participants will be required to be constitutionally eligible, appropriately filed with the FEC and present to the RNC by August 21 that they have polled over one percent since July in three polls meeting its standards, attracted a wide range of donors, and signed pledges – including one to support the eventual nominee.[148]
Endorsements
Opinion polling
![](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries.svg/1100px-Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries.svg.png)
Campaign finance
This is an overview of the money used by each campaign as it is reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Totals raised include individual contributions, loans from the candidate, and transfers from other campaign committees. Individual contributions are itemized (catalogued) by the FEC when the total value of contributions by an individual comes to more than $200. The last column, Cash On Hand (COH), shows the remaining cash each campaign had available for its future spending as of March 31, 2023. Campaign finance reports for the second quarter of 2023, during which many additional candidates announced their candidacy, have to be filed by July 15, 2023.
Candidate | Total raised | Individual contributions | Debt | Spent | COH | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | Unitemized | Pct | |||||
Burgum[149] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Christie[150] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
DeSantis[151] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Elder[152] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Haley[153] | $5,125,431 | $3,283,822 | $798,184 | 24.3% | $0 | $1,055,881 | $4,069,549 |
Hurd[154] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Hutchinson[155] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Johnson[156] | $3,763,396 | $5,838 | $0 | 0% | $3,429,558 | $1,726,920 | $2,036,476 |
Pence[157] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Ramaswamy[158] | $11,406,212 | $851,637 | $415,580 | 48.8% | $10,250,000 | $2,038,924 | $9,367,288 |
Scott[159] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Suarez[160] | not a candidate as of March 31, 2023 | ||||||
Trump[161] | $18,272,903 | $16,361 | $4,911 | 30.0% | $255,109 | $4,340,955 | $13,931,948 |
Primaries and caucuses schedule
Timing of the individual contests
As of June 2023, the exact dates of many primaries are still uncertain. GOP rules mandate that changes to dates and delegate allocation methods must occur by October 1, 2023.[162] They also specify that all primaries must occur between March 1 and June 11, 2024 - except for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina - which are allowed to hold caucuses or primaries in February. It appears the first two, however, will be in January.[163][164] The bulk of primaries will be concentrated in March, as in previous presidential primaries. By March 19, most delegates will have been awarded. The process will conclude with the formal vote on the nominee by a majority of delegates at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which will be held July 15-18.[165]
Filing deadlines for the individual contests
As of June 2023, at least 16 states have announced their filing deadlines for presidential candidates seeking the nomination of their party in order to appear on the state's ballots. On October 16, 2023, Nevada has the nation's first filing deadline for its February 6, 2024 presidential primary and 11 additional states, including populous California and Texas, have filing deadlines by December 22, 2023.[166][167]
Calendar of the individual contests
- Iowa caucuses (TBD, expected in January. Traditionally the first nominating contest) [164]
- New Hampshire primary (TBD, expected in January. traditionally the first primary)[164]
- Nevada primary (February 6, 2024)[b]
- Nevada caucuses (TBD)[b]
- South Carolina primary (February 24, 2024)
- Michigan primary (February 27, 2024)
- Super Tuesday (March 5, 2024) - (several primaries, including California and Texas)
See also
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Republican National Convention
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Democratic National Convention
Notes
- ^ This delegate count is accurate as of August 2024. Delegate counts are subject to change based on the number of Republicans elected to the state legislatures, governorships, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate through December 31, 2023.
- ^ a b After the 2020 presidential election, the state of Nevada decided to establish a presidential primary for both parties. Previously, party-organized caucuses were used in Nevada to determine delegates in presidential elections. After this change, the Republican Party sued the state of Nevada, because they prefer to keep using the caucuses to determine their delegate allocation. The Republican primary will only be held if more than one Republican candidate files until October 16, 2023.[168]
References
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