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Corey Stapleton, the former secretary of state of Montana announced his run on November 11th. Former President [[Donald Trump]] initiated his run for president in November 2022, a week after the [[2022 United States elections|2022 midterm elections]] and two years ahead of the 2024 election. Former [[U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations|Ambassador to the United Nations]] [[Nikki Haley]] became the first to follow him on February 14, followed by wealth management executive [[Vivek Ramaswamy]] one week later, businessman [[Perry Johnson (businessman)|Perry Johnson]] on March 3, former [[Governor of Arkansas|Arkansas governor]] [[Asa Hutchinson]] on April 6, radio host [[Larry Elder]] on April 20, U.S. Senator [[Tim Scott]] on May 19, [[Governor of Florida|Florida governor]] [[Ron DeSantis]] on May 24, former [[US Vice President|Vice President]] [[Mike Pence]] on June 5, former [[Governor of New Jersey|New Jersey governor]] [[Chris Christie]] on June 6, [[Governor of North Dakota|North Dakota governor]] [[Doug Burgum]] on June 7, [[Miami]] mayor [[Francis Suarez]] on June 14, and former U.S. Representative [[Will Hurd]] on June 22.
Corey Stapleton, the former secretary of state of Montana announced his run on November 11th. Former President [[Donald Trump]] initiated his run for president in November 2022, a week after the [[2022 United States elections|2022 midterm elections]] and two years ahead of the 2024 election. Former [[U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations|Ambassador to the United Nations]] [[Nikki Haley]] became the first to follow him on February 14, followed by wealth management executive [[Vivek Ramaswamy]] one week later, businessman [[Perry Johnson (businessman)|Perry Johnson]] on March 3, former [[Governor of Arkansas|Arkansas governor]] [[Asa Hutchinson]] on April 6, radio host [[Larry Elder]] on April 20, U.S. Senator [[Tim Scott]] on May 19, [[Governor of Florida|Florida governor]] [[Ron DeSantis]] on May 24, former [[US Vice President|Vice President]] [[Mike Pence]] on June 5, former [[Governor of New Jersey|New Jersey governor]] [[Chris Christie]] on June 6, [[Governor of North Dakota|North Dakota governor]] [[Doug Burgum]] on June 7, [[Miami]] mayor [[Francis Suarez]] on June 14, and former U.S. Representative [[Will Hurd]] on June 22.


Trump is the current frontrunner, and has maintained a consistent lead in primary polling since 2020. Some Republicans have expressed apprehension about nominating Trump, owing to his loss to [[Joe Biden]] in 2020, the multiple ongoing criminal investigations into him, and the results of the 2022 midterms, when several Trump-endorsed candidates lost key races. However, many other Republicans have stood by Trump and decried the investigations into him as politically motivated, which has boosted Trump's position. Among the non-Trump candidates, DeSantis has stood out as the only one polling in double digits. <ref>{{Cite web |last=Bolton |first=Alexander |date=2023-01-09 |title=DeSantis is GOP’s early front-runner. That could be a problem |url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3803129-desantis-is-gops-early-front-runner-that-could-be-a-problem/ |access-date=2023-06-30 |website=The Hill |language=en-US}}</ref> However he has yet to reach the support enjoyed by Trump. The race has been noted as dominated between the two.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/republican-candidates-2024-gop-presidential-hopefuls-list/ |work=POLITICO |access-date=June 29, 2023 |last=Shepard |first=Steven |date=March 20, 2023 |title=The 2024 GOP field: How they win, how they lose}}</ref>
Trump is the current frontrunner, and has maintained a consistent lead in primary polling since 2020. Some Republicans have expressed apprehension about nominating Trump, owing to his loss to [[Joe Biden]] in 2020, the multiple ongoing criminal investigations into him, and the results of the 2022 midterms, when several Trump-endorsed candidates lost key races. However, many other Republicans have stood by Trump and decried the investigations into him as politically motivated, which has boosted Trump's position. Among the non-Trump candidates, DeSantis has stood out as the only one polling in double digits and has beat Trump in a head to head poll; this lead many to consider him the early frontrunner.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Bolton |first=Alexander |date=2023-01-09 |title=DeSantis is GOP’s early front-runner. That could be a problem|url=https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3803129-desantis-is-gops-early-front-runner-that-could-be-a-problem/ |access-date=2023-06-30 |website=The Hill |language=en-US|quote=David Paleologos, the director of the political research center at Suffolk University, who conducted a poll last month showing that 61 percent of GOP and GOP-leaning voters prefer DeSantis over former President Trump, said the Florida governor faces an array of potential pitfalls if he runs for president.}}</ref> However he has yet to reach the support enjoyed by Trump. The race has been noted as dominated between the two.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/republican-candidates-2024-gop-presidential-hopefuls-list/ |work=POLITICO |access-date=June 29, 2023 |last=Shepard |first=Steven |date=March 20, 2023 |title=The 2024 GOP field: How they win, how they lose}}</ref>


Trump is the first president to run after leaving office since [[Herbert Hoover]] in [[1940 Republican Party presidential primaries|1940]]; if he wins, he will be the only president other than [[Grover Cleveland]], who won his second term in [[1892 United States presidential election|1892]] to be elected non-consecutively.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/15/why-they-ran-again-00066579 |title=4 Ex-Presidents Who Ran Again — And What They Mean for Trump |work=[[Politico]] |access-date=June 8, 2023 |last=Zeitz |first=Joshua |date=November 15, 2022}}</ref> Meanwhile, Pence's candidacy makes him the first vice president to run against the president under whom they served since [[John Nance Garner]] in [[1940 Democratic Party presidential primaries|1940]],<ref>{{cite news|url=https://time.com/6285105/pence-2024-trump-vice-presidents-history/ |work=[[Time Magazine]] |access-date=June 8, 2023 |title=Pence Is First VP to Run Against His Former Boss in 83 Years |date=June 6, 2023 |last=Waxman |first=Olivia}}</ref> while Burgum is the first person born in [[North Dakota]] to run for president.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://kfgo.com/2023/06/01/will-burgum-be-the-first-n-dakotan-to-run-for-president-its-complicated/ |work=[[KFGO (AM)|KFGO]] |access-date=June 8, 2023 |last=Carvell |first=Tasha |date=June 1, 2023 |title=The first North Dakotan to run for President}}</ref>
Trump is the first president to run after leaving office since [[Herbert Hoover]] in [[1940 Republican Party presidential primaries|1940]]; if he wins, he will be the only president other than [[Grover Cleveland]], who won his second term in [[1892 United States presidential election|1892]] to be elected non-consecutively.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/15/why-they-ran-again-00066579 |title=4 Ex-Presidents Who Ran Again — And What They Mean for Trump |work=[[Politico]] |access-date=June 8, 2023 |last=Zeitz |first=Joshua |date=November 15, 2022}}</ref> Meanwhile, Pence's candidacy makes him the first vice president to run against the president under whom they served since [[John Nance Garner]] in [[1940 Democratic Party presidential primaries|1940]],<ref>{{cite news|url=https://time.com/6285105/pence-2024-trump-vice-presidents-history/ |work=[[Time Magazine]] |access-date=June 8, 2023 |title=Pence Is First VP to Run Against His Former Boss in 83 Years |date=June 6, 2023 |last=Waxman |first=Olivia}}</ref> while Burgum is the first person born in [[North Dakota]] to run for president.<ref>{{cite news|url=https://kfgo.com/2023/06/01/will-burgum-be-the-first-n-dakotan-to-run-for-president-its-complicated/ |work=[[KFGO (AM)|KFGO]] |access-date=June 8, 2023 |last=Carvell |first=Tasha |date=June 1, 2023 |title=The first North Dakotan to run for President}}</ref>

Revision as of 18:30, 30 June 2023

2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
← 2020 February to June 2024[1] 2028 →
2,467 delegates (2,392 pledged and 75 unpledged) to the Republican National Convention[2][a]
1,234[2] votes needed to win
Opinion polls
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First place by first-instance vote
Previous Republican nominee

Donald Trump


2024 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Third parties
Related races
← 2020 2024 2028 →

Presidential primaries and caucuses are being organized by state Republican parties and legislatures between January and June 2024, to select their delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention to be held in July to determine the party's nominee for president of the United States in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The elections will take place individually in all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories.

Corey Stapleton, the former secretary of state of Montana announced his run on November 11th. Former President Donald Trump initiated his run for president in November 2022, a week after the 2022 midterm elections and two years ahead of the 2024 election. Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley became the first to follow him on February 14, followed by wealth management executive Vivek Ramaswamy one week later, businessman Perry Johnson on March 3, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson on April 6, radio host Larry Elder on April 20, U.S. Senator Tim Scott on May 19, Florida governor Ron DeSantis on May 24, former Vice President Mike Pence on June 5, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie on June 6, North Dakota governor Doug Burgum on June 7, Miami mayor Francis Suarez on June 14, and former U.S. Representative Will Hurd on June 22.

Trump is the current frontrunner, and has maintained a consistent lead in primary polling since 2020. Some Republicans have expressed apprehension about nominating Trump, owing to his loss to Joe Biden in 2020, the multiple ongoing criminal investigations into him, and the results of the 2022 midterms, when several Trump-endorsed candidates lost key races. However, many other Republicans have stood by Trump and decried the investigations into him as politically motivated, which has boosted Trump's position. Among the non-Trump candidates, DeSantis has stood out as the only one polling in double digits and has beat Trump in a head to head poll; this lead many to consider him the early frontrunner.[3] However he has yet to reach the support enjoyed by Trump. The race has been noted as dominated between the two.[4]

Trump is the first president to run after leaving office since Herbert Hoover in 1940; if he wins, he will be the only president other than Grover Cleveland, who won his second term in 1892 to be elected non-consecutively.[5] Meanwhile, Pence's candidacy makes him the first vice president to run against the president under whom they served since John Nance Garner in 1940,[6] while Burgum is the first person born in North Dakota to run for president.[7]

Candidates

Declared major candidates

The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office; have been included in at least five national polls.

Declared major candidates in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date 		Ref.


Doug Burgum

August 1, 1956
(age 68)
Arthur, North Dakota 		Governor of North Dakota
(2016–present)
North Dakota 		File:Doug Burgum for America logo.png
Campaign
June 7, 2023
FEC filing[8] 		[9]


Chris Christie

September 6, 1962
(age 62)
Newark, New Jersey 		Governor of New Jersey
(2010–2018)
Candidate for president
(2016)
U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey
(2002–2008)
New Jersey
Campaign
June 6, 2023
FEC filing[10] 		[11]


Ron DeSantis

September 14, 1978
(age 46)
Jacksonville, Florida 		Governor of Florida
(2019–present)
U.S. Representative from FL-06
(2013–2018)
Florida
Campaign
May 24, 2023
FEC filing[12] 		[13]

Larry Elder 		April 27, 1952
(age 72)
Los Angeles, California 		Host of The Larry Elder Show
(1993–2022)
Candidate for Governor of California in 2021
California
Campaign
April 20, 2023
FEC filing[14] 		[15]
File:Nikki Haley 2020 Portrait Cropped.jpg
Nikki Haley 		January 20, 1972
(age 52)
Bamberg, South Carolina 		Ambassador to the United Nations
(2017–2018)
Governor of South Carolina
(2011–2017)
South Carolina State Representative
(2005–2011)
South Carolina
Campaign
February 14, 2023
FEC filing[16] 		[17]

Will Hurd 		September 19, 1977
(age 47)
San Antonio, Texas 		U.S. Representative from TX-23
(2015–2021)
Texas
Campaign
June 22, 2023
FEC filing[18] 		[19]
File:Asa Hutchinson Judiciary Comittee Portrait Cropped.jpg
Asa Hutchinson 		December 3, 1950
(age 73)
Bentonville, Arkansas 		Governor of Arkansas
(2015–2023)
Under Secretary of Homeland Security
(2003–2005)
Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration
(2001–2003)
Arkansas
Campaign
April 6, 2023
FEC filing[20] 		[21]
File:PerryJohnsonin2022.jpg
Perry Johnson 		January 23, 1948
(age 76)
Dolton, Illinois 		Founder of Perry Johnson Registrars, Inc.
(1994–present)
Michigan
Campaign
March 2, 2023
FEC filing[22] 		[23]

Mike Pence 		June 7, 1959
(age 65)
Columbus, Indiana 		Vice President of the United States
(2017–2021)
Governor of Indiana
(2013–2017)
U.S. Representative from Indiana
(2001–2013)
Indiana
Campaign
June 5, 2023
FEC filing[24] 		[25]

Vivek Ramaswamy 		August 9, 1985
(age 39)
Cincinnati, Ohio 		Executive chairman of Strive Asset Management
(2022–present)
Ohio
Campaign
February 21, 2023
FEC filing[26] 		[27]
File:Tim Scott 3-3-2022 (1).jpg
Tim Scott 		September 19, 1965
(age 59)
North Charleston, South Carolina 		U.S. Senator from South Carolina
(2013–present)
U.S. Representative from SC-01
(2011–2013)
South Carolina State Representative
(2009–2011)
South Carolina
Campaign
May 19, 2023
FEC filing[28] 		[29]
File:Coreystapleton6.jpg
Corey Stapleton 		September 17, 1967
(age 57)
Seattle, Washington 		Secretary of State of Montana
(2017–2021)
Montana State Senator
(2001–2009)
Surface Warfare Officer in the United States Navy
(1986–1997)
 Montana
Campaign
November 11, 2022
FEC filing[30] 		[31]

Francis Suarez 		October 6, 1977
(age 47)
Miami, Florida 		Mayor of Miami
(2017–present)
Member of the Miami City Commission
(2009–2017)
Florida
Campaign
June 14, 2023
FEC filing[32] 		[33]
File:Donald Trump AFPI Portrait Cropped.jpg
Donald Trump 		June 14, 1946
(age 78)
Queens, New York 		President of the United States
(2017–2021)
Chairman of The Trump Organization
(1971–2017)
Florida
Campaign
November 15, 2022
FEC filing[34][35] 		[36]


Other declared candidates

The candidates in this section are otherwise notable, but have not met the criteria outlined above.


Publicly expressed interest

As of June 2023, the following notable individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Potential candidates

As of June 2023, there has been speculation about the potential candidacy of the following notable individuals within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The following notable individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Vice presidential speculation

Main article: 2024 Republican Party vice presidential candidate selection

Multiple reporters, political analysts and commentators have noted that Trump selecting his former Vice President Mike Pence to be his running mate once again would be highly unlikely following rifts between the two over the future of the Republican Party and Pence's attempts to distance himself from the former president.[87][88][89] On March 15, 2022, Trump announced that if he ran for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, Pence would not be his running mate.[90] In June 2022, the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack found that Trump said Pence "deserved" calls to be hanged on the day of the attack.[91] Pence has similarly stated that he has no interest in accepting the vice presidential nomination again.[92]

Several individuals have received speculation about possible selection as vice presidential nominee in 2024 including Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa, Senator Rick Scott of Florida, and Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nuñez of Florida.[93][94] There has been speculation that former U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin of New York could become DeSantis' running mate after his strong performance in the 2022 New York gubernatorial election,[95] and both holding several rallies before and after the election together.[96][97] Some have speculated that former United Nations Ambassador and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley could be Trump's running mate.[98] Reportedly, Trump has "repeatedly" discussed the possibility of choosing United States Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate.[99] Greene has claimed that she is in talks with Trump to become his running mate.[100]

On March 6, 2023, multiple sources close to Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner, as reported by Axios, ran the list down to four major contenders. These were Haley; Sarah Huckabee Sanders, former White House press secretary for Trump and current governor of Arkansas, who has received media attention for her executive orders; Kristi Noem, governor of South Dakota; and Kari Lake, candidate for Arizona governor in 2022 who lost narrowly to Katie Hobbs. According to Axios, Trump's major factor in the race is loyalty, something he sees strongly in Lake given her reiterations of the claims of a stolen 2020 election.[101]

Timeline

Main article: Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election

2022

November 2022

On November 11th, Former Montana Secretary of State Corey Satpleton announced his presidential campaign, becoming the first to do so.

A week after the 2022 midterm elections, at Mar-a-Lago, former president Donald Trump followed, announcing that he would run again in 2024. He is seeking to become the only president other than Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.[102]

2023

February 2023

On February 14, former South Carolina governor and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley released a video announcing her presidential candidacy.[103]

On February 21, anti-environmental, social and corporate governance activist Vivek Ramaswamy announced his presidential candidacy on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[104]

March 2023

On March 3, businessman Perry Johnson, a Michigan gubernatorial candidate in 2022, who failed to qualify for collecting fake donor signatures, announced his intent to run for president of the United States.[23]

April 2023

On April 2, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson announced his candidacy during an interview with ABC News' Jonathan Karl.[105]

On April 12, the junior U.S. Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott announced an exploratory committee to run for president.[106]

On April 20, former California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder announced his campaign on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[107]

May 2023

On May 19, Tim Scott submitted FEC paperwork to run;[108] he announced his presidential run publicly on May 22.[109]

On May 24, Florida governor and former U.S. representative Ron DeSantis submitted his FEC paperwork to run,[110] and announced that he was running for president during a Twitter Spaces interview with Twitter owner Elon Musk.[111]

June 2023

On June 5, former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork to run for president[112] and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum released a campaign video.[113]

On June 6, Burgum published an announcement opinion-editorial piece announce his presidential run in the Wall Street Journal,[114] making him the first North Dakotan to run for president.[115] The same day, former New Jersey governor and 2016 presidential candidate Chris Christie publicly announced a presidential campaign in New Hampshire.[116]

On June 7, Pence publicly announced his bid with a campaign video.[117] Also, Burgum delivered a public announcement speech in Fargo.[118]

On June 14, Miami mayor Francis Suarez filed his run with the Federal Election Commission. He delivered a speech the next day at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library to publicly announce his campaign, as four other Republicans in the race had done in the last year.[119][120][121][122][123]

On June 22, former CIA agent and representative of Texas Will Hurd launched a run, after previously expressing interest in launching a presidential bid.[124]

August 2023

The first Republican candidates debate, with the possibility of a second the following day, will take place in Milwaukee on August 23. It will be broadcast by Fox News and moderated by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.[125]

January 2024

The first election of the cycle takes place with the Iowa caucus, followed by the New Hampshire primary.

Overview

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Active campaign Exploratory committee Withdrawn candidate
Primaries Midterm elections Republican National Convention

Background

Despite losing his re-election bid in 2020, Trump remains the main front-runner of the GOP and endorsed challengers to several House members who had voted to impeach him, as well as pushing several candidates through for open races. These candidates had a lackluster performance resulting in the Republicans taking control of the house with only a small majority and causing a dip in Trump's popularity within the party. Many Republicans cited Trump endorsing low-quality candidates as the reason for their slim majority.[126] At the same time Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, won nearly 60% of the vote in a landslide victory in his gubernatorial re-election.[127]

Media coverage consistently portrayed DeSantis as Trump's main rival, despite DeSantis not having announced a presidential run.[128][129] DeSantis rose in GOP aggregate polls throughout 2022, eventually reaching 11 points behind Trump. Since the beginning of the year, Trump has resurged and DeSantis has fallen behind. This has been fueled by sentiments against an indictment of Trump on March 30. National polling against incumbent president Biden shows nearly the exact result regardless of which is the GOP nominee, but because of DeSantis' prominence being more recent, more GOP voters are undecided on him than Trump.[130][131][132][133]In March 2023, Trump attacked DeSantis with nicknames like "Meatball Ron" and "Ron DeSanctimonious".[134]

Trump received his first indictment on March 30[135] and was arrested on April 4.[136] On April 25, Trump suggested he would skip Republican debates, saying he did not want to be "libeled and abused" in them and boasting that he already had a "seemingly insurmountable" lead.[137] On May 10, Trump conducted a live town hall with CNN, his first time with a major network other than Fox News since storming off an interview with 60 Minutes in October 2020.[138]

Trump's poll numbers surged immediately after the New York State indictment was announced. A Yahoo News poll shows that in a Republican primary, 57% of respondents would vote for Trump.[139] In a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll, 80% of Republicans surveyed said Trump was being unfairly targeted.[140]

Debates

Main article: 2024 Republican Party presidential debates and forums

The first debate is scheduled for August 23, 2023, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to be hosted by Fox News, with the possibility of a second the next day. It will be roughly 5 months before primaries begin.[141] Another will take place later at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley[142] as happened in 2016.[143]

Participants will be required to be constitutionally eligible, appropriately filed with the FEC and present to the RNC by August 21 that they have polled over one percent since July in three polls meeting its standards, attracted a wide range of donors, and signed pledges – including one to support the eventual nominee.[144]

Endorsements

Main article: Endorsements in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Local regression graph of all polls conducted since January 2023.

Campaign finance

This is an overview of the money used by each campaign as it is reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Totals raised include individual contributions, loans from the candidate, and transfers from other campaign committees. Individual contributions are itemized (catalogued) by the FEC when the total value of contributions by an individual comes to more than $200. The last column, Cash On Hand (COH), shows the remaining cash each campaign had available for its future spending as of March 31, 2023. Campaign finance reports for the second quarter of 2023, during which many additional candidates announced their candidacy, have to be filed by July 15, 2023.

Overview of campaign financing for candidates in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries through March 31, 2023
Candidate Total raised Individual contributions Debt Spent COH
Total Unitemized Pct
Burgum[145] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Christie[146] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
DeSantis[147] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Elder[148] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Haley[149] $5,125,431 $3,283,822 $798,184 24.3% $0 $1,055,881 $4,069,549
Hurd[150] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Hutchinson[151] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Johnson[152] $3,763,396 $5,838 $0 0% $3,429,558 $1,726,920 $2,036,476
Pence[153] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Ramaswamy[154] $11,406,212 $851,637 $415,580 48.8% $10,250,000 $2,038,924 $9,367,288
Scott[155] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Stapleton[156] $7,717 $7,717 $605 7.8% $0 $4,165 $3,552
Suarez[157] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Trump[158] $18,272,903 $16,361 $4,911 30.0% $255,109 $4,340,955 $13,931,948

Primaries and caucuses schedule

Timing of the individual contests

As of June 2023, the exact dates of many primaries are still uncertain. GOP rules mandate that changes to primary dates must occur by October 1, 2023.[159] They also specify that all primaries must occur between March 1 and June 11, 2024 - except for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina - which are allowed to hold caucuses or primaries in February. It appears the first two, however, will be in January. The bulk of contests will be concentrated in March, as in previous presidential primaries.[160]

Nevada controversy

After the 2020 presidential election, the state of Nevada decided to establish a presidential primary for both parties. Previously, party-organized caucuses were used in Nevada to determine delegates in presidential elections. In May 2023, the Republican Party sued the state of Nevada, because they prefer to keep using the caucuses to determine their delegate allocation. The Republican primary will only be held if more than one Republican candidate files until October 16, 2023. Nevada Republicans have indicated that they will boycott the primary and hold a caucus instead, at a later date.[161]

Michigan controversy

The Michigan primary will take place 2 weeks early, on February 27, 2024 - if its legislature adjourns as expected a month early by November 29, 2023. Michigan legislature laws not passed with a supermajority go into effect 90 days after the adjournment of its session.[162] The Michigan primaries were originally scheduled to be held in March and thus in accordance with Republican rules, but Democrats (who are in control of the Michigan legislature and governorship after the 2022 midterm elections) decided to move up both primaries as part of their own 2024 presidential delegate selection plan. As a result, the earlier date of February 27 violates Republican rules - which state that only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina can vote earlier than March 1, 2024. Michigan Republicans are facing a harsh penalty of up to 90% of their delegates being stripped, if they go forward with their earlier primary. Republicans in Michigan have criticized Democrats in Michigan for their unilateral move and are considering boycotting the earlier primary and instead are considering a party-run caucus later in March.[163]

Delegates

There will be an estimated total of 2,467 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention. In contests until March 15, delegates must be awarded on a proportional basis, either by percentage of statewide vote or share of congressional districts won. However, some states have established thresholds between 4 and 20% for proportionality to kick in, under which a candidate receives no delegates. A vast majority, 41 contests totaling 1,920 delegates, operate this way using methods that are hybrid between proportionality and majority-take-all. New York for example has a 20% threshold for proportionality but if a candidate wins a majority, they take all delegates. North Dakota, Wyoming, American Samoa, Guam, Virgin Islands, and 51 of Pennsylvania's 67 delegates are unpledged, (free to vote anyone at the convention) totaling 119. Florida, New Jersey, Ohio, Colorado, Arizona, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana's delegates are strictly awarded on a plurality-take-all basis, totaling 428. It will be possible for a candidate to take all 928 delegates of 19 contests by simply winning a threshold of votes. By Super Tuesday, over 40% of delegates will have been awarded, and most by By March 19. GOP rules mandate changes to delegate allocation methods happen by September. The primaries will conclude with a final vote on the nominee by a majority of delegates at the newly elected Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which will be held July 15-18.[164][165]

Filing deadlines for the individual contests

As of June 2023, at least 16 states have announced their filing deadlines for presidential candidates seeking the nomination of their party in order to appear on the state's ballots. On October 16, 2023, Nevada has the nation's first filing deadline for its February 6, 2024 presidential primary and 11 additional states, including populous California and Texas, have filing deadlines by December 22, 2023.[166][167]

Calendar of the individual contests

See also

Notes

  1. ^ This delegate count is accurate as of November 2024. Delegate counts are subject to change based on the number of Republicans elected to the state legislatures, governorships, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate through December 31, 2023.

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