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Revision as of 04:36, 16 January 2024

2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

← 2020 January 15 to June 11, 2024[1] 2028 →

2,429 delegates (2,272 pledged and 157 unpledged) to the Republican National Convention[2][a]
1,215[2] votes needed to win
Opinion polls
 
Nominee Donald Trump Nikki Haley Ron DeSantis
Home state Florida South Carolina Florida
Estimated delegate count 19 7 8
Contests won 1 0 0

 
Nominee Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)
Home state Ohio
Estimated delegate count 2
Contests won 0

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First place by first-instance vote

Previous Republican nominee

Donald Trump

Presumptive Republican nominee

TBD

Presidential primaries and caucuses are being organized by state Republican parties and legislatures to select their delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention, to determine the party's nominee for president in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The elections will take place individually in all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories, between January and June 2024. The 2024 Republican National Convention is scheduled to be held in July at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.[3]

Former president Donald Trump announced he would run on November 15, 2022. Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley became the first to follow his entrance on February 14, followed by wealth management executive Vivek Ramaswamy one week later, businessman Perry Johnson on March 2, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson on April 6, radio host Larry Elder on April 20, U.S. Senator Tim Scott on May 19, Florida governor Ron DeSantis on May 24, former Vice President Mike Pence on June 5, former New Jersey governor Chris Christie on June 6, North Dakota governor Doug Burgum on June 7, Miami mayor Francis Suarez on June 14, and former U.S. Representative Will Hurd on June 22. Suarez dropped out of the race in August, with Hurd, Johnson, Elder, and Pence following in October, along with Scott on November 12, Burgum on December 4 and Christie on January 10.

Trump is considered the frontrunner and has maintained a consistent lead in primary polling since 2020. Some Republicans have expressed concerns about his nomination due to his loss in 2020, his own role in inciting the January 6 United States Capitol attack, his ongoing criminal investigations, and the results of the 2022 midterms, in which several Trump-endorsed candidates lost key races and cost the party a widely anticipated red wave.[4] However, many others have supported him and decried the investigations as politically motivated.[5] Among non-Trump candidates, DeSantis initially polled in a close second behind Trump,[6] but his polling numbers fell significantly in 2023, bringing him closer to the other candidates.[7] Ramaswamy experienced a surge in polling during the same time period, reaching his peak in August when he nearly caught DeSantis. Ramaswamy saw his own polling decline over the next several months, eventually falling behind both Haley and Christie.[8][9] Haley began climbing in polls in the final months of 2023. By December, she was beginning to outpace DeSantis in some polls.[10] As of January 2024, Trump remains far ahead. The Republican primary has been called a "race for second" due to Trump's consistent and prohibitive lead in polling.[11]

Trump is the first president to run after leaving office since Herbert Hoover in 1940. If he wins the Republican nomination, he will be the first Republican to be nominated for president three separate times since Richard Nixon (Republican nominee in 1960, 1968, and 1972), and the first person to be the Republican presidential nominee in three consecutive elections. If he wins the general election, he will be the first president to serve non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland, who won his second term in 1892.[12] Meanwhile, Pence's candidacy made him the first vice president to run against the president under whom they served since John Nance Garner in 1940,[13] while Burgum was the first person born in North Dakota to run for a major party's presidential nomination.[14]

Trump's eligibility to run has been in dispute. On December 19, 2023, the state of Colorado disqualified Trump from its primary ballot after the state's Supreme Court ruled in its decision Anderson v. Griswold that he was ineligible under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment for his role in the January 6 United States Capitol attack.[15] Trump will remain on the ballot pending an appeal.[16] The Colorado Republican Party is considering holding a caucus in place of the state-sanctioned primary if the decision stands.[17] On December 28, 2023, the state of Maine disqualified Trump from its primary ballot after Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows ruled he was ineligible, also citing section 3 of the 14th Amendment. However, Bellows stayed her own ruling to allow time for the Maine Superior Court to rule on an appeal.[18]

Results

Candidates

As of January 2024, more than 400 candidates have filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) to run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.[19] In previous cycles, the majority of these candidates did not appear on any ballots, raise money, or otherwise attempt to formally run a campaign.[19][20]

Declared major candidates

Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date
Bound
delegates
Contests won Popular
vote
Running
mate
Ref.

Donald Trump
June 14, 1946
(age 78)
Queens, New York
President of the United States
(2017–2021)

Chairman of The Trump Organization
(1971–2017)
Florida[b]
Campaign
November 15, 2022
FEC filing[21][22][23]
Website
Secured nomination: March 12, 2024
2,268 (95.4%) 54
(AK, AL, AR, AS, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE[c], FL, GA, GU, HI, IA, ID, IL, IN, KS, KY, LA, MA, MD, ME, MI (C, P), MN, MO, MP, MS, MT, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, PR, RI, SC, SD[d], TN, TX, UT, VA, VI, WA, WI, WV, WY)
17,015,756 (76.4%) JD Vance [26][27][28]

Withdrew during the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced
Campaign
suspended
Campaign Bound
delegates
Contests
won
Popular
vote
Ref.

Nikki Haley
January 20, 1972
(age 52)
Bamberg, South Carolina
Ambassador to the United Nations
(2017–2018)

Governor of South Carolina
(2011–2017)
South Carolina State Representative
(2005–2011)
South Carolina February 14, 2023 March 6, 2024
(endorsed Trump)[29]

Campaign
FEC filing[30]
Website
97 (4.1%) 2
(DC, VT)
4,381,799 (19.7%) [31]
[32]

Ron DeSantis
September 14, 1978
(age 46)
Jacksonville, Florida
Governor of Florida
(2019–present)

U.S. Representative from FL-06
(2013–2018)
Florida May 24, 2023 January 21, 2024
(endorsed Trump)

Campaign
FEC filing[33][34][35]
Website
9 (0.4%) None 353,615 (1.6%) [36]
[37]

Asa Hutchinson
December 3, 1950
(age 73)
Bentonville, Arkansas
Governor of Arkansas
(2015–2023)

Under Secretary of Homeland Security
(2003–2005)
Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration
(2001–2003)
Arkansas April 26, 2023 January 16, 2024
(endorsed Haley)

Campaign
FEC filing[38]
Website
0 (0.0%) None 22,044 (0.1%) [39]
[40]
[41]

Vivek Ramaswamy
August 9, 1985
(age 39)
Cincinnati, Ohio
Executive chairman of Strive Asset Management
(2022–2023)

CEO of Roivant Sciences
(2014–2021)
Ohio February 21, 2023 January 15, 2024
(endorsed Trump)

Campaign
FEC filing[42][43]
Website
3 (0.1%) None 96,954 (0.4%) [44]
[45]
[46]
[47]

Withdrew before the primaries

Withdrawn major candidates for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
announced
Campaign
suspended
Campaign Popular vote total Ref.

Chris Christie
September 6, 1962
(age 62)
Newark, New Jersey
Governor of New Jersey
(2010–2018)

Candidate for president in 2016
U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey
(2002–2008)
New Jersey June 6, 2023 January 10, 2024
Campaign
FEC filing[48]
Website
139,541 (0.6%) [49][50]

Doug Burgum
August 1, 1956
(age 68)
Arthur, North Dakota
Governor of North Dakota
(2016–present)

Senior VP of Microsoft Business Solutions Group
(2002–2007)
President of Great Plains Software
(1984–2001)
North Dakota June 7, 2023 December 4, 2023
(endorsed Trump)

Campaign
FEC filing[51]
Website
502 (nil%) [52][53][54]

Tim Scott
September 19, 1965
(age 59)
North Charleston, South Carolina
U.S. Senator from South Carolina
(2013–present)

U.S. Representative from SC-01
(2011–2013)
South Carolina State Representative
(2009–2011)
South Carolina May 19, 2023
Exploratory committee:
April 12, 2023
November 12, 2023
(endorsed Trump)

Campaign
FEC filing[55][56]
Website
1,598 (nil%) [57][58][59]

Mike Pence
June 7, 1959
(age 64)
Columbus, Indiana
Vice President of the United States
(2017–2021)

Governor of Indiana
(2013–2017)
U.S. Representative from Indiana
(2001–2013)
Indiana June 5, 2023 October 28, 2023
Campaign
FEC filing[60]
Website
404
(nil%)
[61][62]

Larry Elder
April 27, 1952
(age 71)
Los Angeles, California
Host of The Larry Elder Show
(1993–2022)

Candidate for Governor of California in the 2021 recall election
California April 20, 2023 October 26, 2023
(endorsed Trump)

Campaign
FEC filing[63]
Website
[64][65]

Perry Johnson
January 23, 1948
(age 75)
Dolton, Illinois
Founder of Perry Johnson Registrars, Inc.
(1994–present)

Disqualified candidate for Governor of Michigan in 2022
Michigan March 2, 2023 October 20, 2023
(endorsed Trump)

Campaign
FEC filing[66]
Website
4,051 (nil%) [67][68][69]

Will Hurd
August 19, 1977
(age 46)
San Antonio, Texas
U.S. Representative from TX-23
(2015–2021)
Texas June 22, 2023 October 9, 2023
(endorsed Haley)

Campaign
FEC filing[70]
Website
[71][72]

Francis Suarez
October 6, 1977
(age 45)
Miami, Florida
Mayor of Miami
(2017–present)

Member of the Miami City Commission
(2009–2017)
Florida June 14, 2023 August 29, 2023
(endorsed Trump)

Campaign
FEC filing[73]
Website[e]
[74][75][76]

Timeline

2021

December 2021

On December 2, perennial candidate John Anthony Castro announced his campaign for the presidency in a tweet, and said that he'd sue Donald Trump to have him judicially declared ineligible for public office.[77]

2022

March 2022

On March 10, 2022, former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton announced he was forming an exploratory committee for the Republican nomination in 2024.[78]

July 2022

On July 27, George Tanios, one of former President Donald Trump's two co-defendants in the Sicknick case, entered a plea deal where he admitted to purchasing the pepper spray that the second co-defendant, Julian Khater, used on Brian Sicknick, a Capitol Police officer, during January 6. Sicknick's civil partner Sandra Garza argued that the pepper spray caused an allergic reaction that ultimately caused the death of Sicknick, despite the Washington D.C. coroner ruling the pepper spray had no effect on Sicknick's death, which was ruled as from natural causes.[79] Tanios was found guilty of entering and remaining on restricted grounds and disorderly and disruptive conduct on restricted grounds. Tanios, who had already spent five months in prison prior to the ruling, was sentenced to between one and six months of prison.[80] Tanios was released on January 26, 2023.[81]

November 2022

Three days after the 2022 midterm elections, Stapleton confirmed his candidacy for the presidency in 2024.[82][83]

A week after the 2022 midterm elections, former president Donald Trump announced at Mar-a-Lago that he would run again for the presidency in 2024. If elected, he would become the only president other than Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.[84]

2023

January 2023

On January 5, former President Donald Trump was sued by Sandra Garza, the long time civil partner of Brian Sicknick, a Capitol Police officer who died shortly after January 6 from a pair of blood clots in his head. Garza and her legal team argued that Trump should be prosecuted for under a wrongful death claim, that the clots were the result of an allergic reaction from a rioter's pepper spray, and that Trump was directly responsible for Sicknick's death, personally conspiring with two rioters, Julian Khater and George Tanios, to kill Sicknick and deprive his civil liberties.[85]

On January 27, former President Donald Trump's co-defendant in the Sicknick case, Julian Khater, was sentenced to 80 months in prison with credit for 22 months of time served for assaulting a Capitol Police officer, Brian Sicknick, with a chemical irritant.[86]

February 2023

On February 2, former Cranston, Rhode Island mayor Steve Laffey announced he was entering the race in a video statement.[87]

On February 14, former South Carolina governor and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley released a video announcing her presidential candidacy.[88]

On February 21, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy announced his presidential candidacy on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[89]

March 2023

On March 2, businessman Perry Johnson, a Michigan gubernatorial candidate in 2022, who had been deemed ineligible to appear on the primary ballot by the Board of State Canvassers due to alleged fraudulent signatures, announced his intent to run for president of the United States.[67]

April 2023

On April 1, businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley filed to run with the Federal Election Commission.[90]

On April 2, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson announced his candidacy during an interview with ABC News' Jonathan Karl.[91]

On April 6, Hutchinson filed his run with the Federal Election Commission.[38]

On April 12, the junior U.S. Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott announced an exploratory committee to run for president.[92]

On April 20, former California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder announced his campaign on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[93]

On April 23, Binkley announced his presidential campaign at the University of Texas at Dallas campus.[94]

May 2023

On May 19, Tim Scott submitted FEC paperwork to run.[95] He announced his presidential run publicly on May 22.[96]

On May 24, Florida governor and former U.S. representative Ron DeSantis submitted his FEC paperwork to run,[97] and announced that he was running for president during a Twitter Spaces interview with Twitter owner Elon Musk.[98]

June 2023

On June 5, former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork to run for president[99] and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum released a campaign video.[100]

On June 6, Burgum published an announcement opinion-editorial piece announcing his presidential run in the Wall Street Journal,[101] making him the first person born in North Dakota to seek a major party's president nomination.[14][f] The same day, former New Jersey governor and 2016 presidential candidate Chris Christie publicly announced a presidential campaign in New Hampshire.[103]

On June 7, Pence publicly announced his bid with a campaign video.[104] Also, Burgum delivered a public announcement speech in Fargo.[105]

On June 14, Miami mayor Francis Suarez filed his run with the Federal Election Commission. He delivered a speech the next day at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library to publicly announce his campaign, as four other Republicans in the race had done in the last year.[106][107][108][109][110]

On June 22, former CIA agent and representative of Texas Will Hurd launched a run, after previously expressing interest in launching a presidential bid.[111]

July 2023

On July 14, pastor E. W. Jackson announced his candidacy.[112]

August 2023

On August 1, Donald Trump was indicted a third time for trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.[113]

On August 14, Donald Trump was indicted a fourth time for trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in the state of Georgia.[114]

Trump said he would not attend the first debate, and instead planned a show with Tucker Carlson during the same time slot.[115]

On August 21, the slate of candidates that officially qualified for the debate was released: Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Tim Scott.[116]

On August 23, the first Republican candidates debate took place in Milwaukee, broadcast by Fox News.[117] To be eligible for this debate, a candidate must have polled at least one percent, received donations from 40,000 individuals, and signed a loyalty pledge to back whoever ultimately wins the party presidential nomination.[118] Candidates deemed eligible for the debate were Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott.[119] Trump did not participate in the debate, instead filming an interview with Tucker Carlson that was released minutes before the debate was scheduled to begin.[120]

On August 29, Francis Suarez suspended his presidential campaign, becoming the first major candidate to do so.[121]

September 2023

On September 18, Donald Trump's campaign announced that he would be giving a speech in Detroit before striking United Auto Workers union members at the same time as the second debate in California.[122] United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain pointed out that Trump's speech was being held at a non-union plant whose workers were not connected to the strike.[123]

On September 20, a senior advisor to the Trump campaign told Bloomberg News that Trump plans to skip the third debate in Miami.[124]

On September 26, the slate of candidates that qualified and would attend are: Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Chris Christie and Doug Burgum. Asa Hutchinson, who appeared for the first debate, did not qualify.[125]

On September 27, the second Republican presidential debate took place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.[126] The requirements to attend the debate were to be polling at three percent in at least three reputable national polls, while the donor requirement increased to 50,000 unique donations.[127]

October 2023

On October 2, the Supreme Court of the United States declined to hear John Anthony Castro's case to disqualify Donald Trump from appearing on the ballot.[128][129]

On October 6, former Cranston, Rhode Island mayor Steve Laffey dropped out of the race.[130]

On October 9, former Representative Will Hurd withdrew from the race.[131]

On October 13, former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton dropped out of the race.[132]

On October 17, judge for the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, Tanya S. Chutkan, issued a gag order on Donald Trump from targeting prosecutors, court staff or “any reasonably foreseeable witness” marking the first time in U.S. history where the speech of a presidential candidate was limited by the courts.[133]

On October 20, businessman Perry Johnson suspended his campaign.[134] Judge Chutkan lifted the gag order on Donald Trump to allow Trump's legal team to appeal the order.[135]

On October 26, former talk radio show host Larry Elder suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.[65]

On October 28, former Vice President of the United States Mike Pence suspended his campaign.[136]

On October 30, Judge Chutkan reinstated the gag order on Donald Trump.[137]

November 2023

On November 3, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit lifted the gag order on Donald Trump until at least November 20, when oral arguments for or against the gag order will be heard by a three judge panel.[138]

On November 6, the RNC announced that the following candidates qualified for the third presidential debate; Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and Tim Scott. The criteria to qualify for the third debate were having more than 70,000 unique donations and polling at 4% or better in national polls and local polls in Iowa or New Hampshire.[139]

On November 8, the third Republican presidential debate took place in Miami, Florida.[140]

On November 12, Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina, dropped out of the race.[141]

On November 20, the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit reached a compromise between Trump and Chutkan, issuing a narrow gag order preventing Trump from "insulting" prosecutors, court personnel and potential witnesses, but allowing him to speak freely about outside counsel and issues relating to his presidential campaign.[142]

On November 27, the suspension of the gag order on Donald Trump in relation to his civil fraud case in New York expired. Trump, through his legal team, argued that the Attorney General of New York, Letitia James, was directly and partisanly influencing the proceedings mostly by tracking her donations to the case's judge, Arthur Engoron, as well as her frequent "consultations" with Engoron on the case, concluding that she pressured the judge into not renewing the suspension and to not allow an appeal of the gag order to a panel of judges.[143]

On November 30, DeSantis debated Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom.[144]

December 2023

On December 4, Governor of North Dakota Doug Burgum announced his withdrawal from the race.[145]

On December 6, the fourth Republican presidential debate took place at the University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.[146] Christie, DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy and Trump all met the donor and polling criteria. Trump again skipped the event.[147]

On December 19, 2023, after a 4-3 ruling by the Colorado Supreme Court, Colorado became the first to disqualify former President Donald Trump from its primary ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.[15] Trump will remain on the ballot pending an appeal.[16] The Colorado Republican Party is considering holding a caucus in place of the state-sanctioned primary if the decision stands.[17]

On December 22, CBS reported that Donald Trump was inquiring within his campaign and with his allies over the possibility of tapping Nikki Haley for his running mate. This came shortly after a poll which showed Haley in second place in Iowa with 29% to Trump's 44%.[148] In response, senior members of the Trump circle, including Donald Trump Jr., Roger Stone, and Tucker Carlson, have all rejected the idea.[149]

On December 28, Maine followed Colorado in prohibiting former President Trump from appearing on their ballots, though it was stayed pending an appeal.[150]

On December 29, an effort in Virginia to prohibit former President Trump from appearing on their ballots by two social justice activists, Roy Perry-Bey and Carlos Howard, was dismissed by Leonie Brinkema, judge of the United States District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, due to the pair lacking standing to sue Trump under Virginia law.[151]

2024

January 2024

On January 3, Amit Mehta, the judge of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia, dismissed part of the Sicknick lawsuit against former President Trump, which argued that Trump was directly responsible for the death of a Capitol Police officer on January 6.[85] Specifically, the lawsuit was issued by Sandra Garza, who claimed to be Sicknick's domestic partner, the relationship of which Judge Mehta found did not give Garza standing in Washington, D.C. to sue Trump.[152] Additionally, it was found during Sicknick's autopsy that the blood clots in his brain which resulted in his death where not the result of any physical trauma during Jan 6, nor where they caused by allergic reactions to pepper spray as initially claimed, with the corner ruling that Jan 6 had no bearing on Sicknick's death.[152] Garza argued that Trump, and two rioters, Julian Khater and George Tanios, were engaged in a conspiracy to specifically target her husband and interfere with his civil rights, demanding a $10,000,000 restitution.[153][154] Despite this, Garza and her legal team are continuing to pursue the suit in hopes it reaches deposition.[155]

On January 5, the Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's appeal of his removal from the Colorado ballot.[156]

On January 7, House Republican Conference chairwoman Elise Stefanik (R-NY21), stated in an interview with NBC's Meet the Press that she would be "honored" to serve as former President Trump's vice president, or in any other capacity in his prospective cabinet.[157][158] Shortly afterward Stefanik stated that she wouldn't certify the 2024 election results until it "is a legal and valid election" and called for the release of all inmates related to January 6, referring to them as "hostages."[159][160][161] During the Meet the Press interview, Stefanik stated that the single greatest threat to American democracy is Joe Biden and the Democratic Party, leading to the Washington Examiner stating that Stefanik is the "No. 1" pick to be Trump's running mate.[162][163][164]

On January 9, Gloria Navarro, judge for the United States District Court for the District of Nevada, rejected an effort in Nevada to block former President Trump from appearing on the state's ballots by John Anthony Castro, stating that Castro, a resident of Texas who cited the 14th Amendment in the case, as he does not have the standing to sue Trump under Nevada law.[165] The point is largely moot, as the lawsuit would've barred Trump from appearing on the Nevada primary, which he, most of the front-runners, and the Nevada Republican Party, are boycotting in favor of the Nevada caucus.[166]

On January 10, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie withdrew from the race.[167] The fifth Republican presidential debate was held at Drake University in Des Moines, hosted by CNN.[168] The requirements to attend were: finishing in the top three in local polls in Iowa, and be polling at at least 10% in both national and local polls.[169] The three candidates that qualified were Trump, Haley, and DeSantis. Trump again did not participate, leaving the debate solely between Haley and DeSantis.[170] Continuing his counterprogramming strategy, Trump instead appeared at a town hall with Fox News.[171] Ramaswamy hosted a podcast interview with podcaster Tim Pool and Candace Owens after not qualifying for the debate.[172]

On January 14, North Dakota governor and withdrawn candidate Doug Burgum endorsed former President Donald Trump for president.[173]

On January 15, Donald Trump won the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses.[174] The same day, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy withdrew from the race.

On January 18, the sixth Republican debate will be hosted by ABC News.[175]

On January 21, the seventh Republican presidential debate will be held at St. Anselm College in Goffstown, New Hampshire, hosted by CNN. The requirements to attend are similar to the fifth debate, however, the local polls must be in New Hampshire.[169]

On January 23, the 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary will be the first official primary in the nation.

Overview

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Active campaign Exploratory committee Withdrawn candidate Republican National Convention
Midterm elections Debates Primaries

Ballot access

Debates

The first Republican debate was held on August 23, 2023, hosted by Fox News and moderated by Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.[176] To be eligible for the debate, a candidate must have polled with at least 1% of voter support, received donations from 40,000 individuals, and signed a loyalty pledge to back whoever ultimately wins the party presidential nomination.[118] Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Tim Scott all qualified for the first debate. Donald Trump gave an interview with Tucker Carlson during the same time slot.[116]

The second Republican debate was held on September 27, in Simi Valley, California, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. The requirements were similar to the first debate, but increased the number of individual donors required to 50,000 and required the candidates to poll at or above three percent in two national polls or in one national poll and two "early state" polls.[177] Seven candidates were invited to the second debate: Burgum, Christie, DeSantis, Haley, Pence, Ramaswamy, and Scott.[178]

The third debate was held in Miami, Florida, on November 8.[179] The donor threshold for the third debate increases to 70,000 unique donors, including 200 donors in 20 or more states, while the polling threshold increases to four percent in two national polls or four percent in one national poll and four percent in two statewide polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina.[180] Christie, DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, and Scott qualified for the third debate.[181]

A fourth debate was held in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, on December 6. The donor threshold increased to 80,000 unique donors, while the polling threshold increased to six percent in two national polls, or six percent in one national poll and six percent in two polls from different states among Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina.[182] DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Haley and Christie qualified for this debate.[182]

The fifth debate took place in Des Moines, Iowa on January 10, 2024, and was hosted by CNN and moderated by Jake Tapper and Dana Bash.[183]

Endorsements

Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the New Hampshire Senate.
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (1) (withdrawn)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (1)
  Endorsed Donald Trump (1)
  No endorsement (11)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the New Hampshire House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Donald Trump (51)
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (26) (withdrawn)
  Endorsed Vivek Ramaswamy (7) (withdrawn)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (3)
  Endorsed Larry Elder (1) (withdrawn)
  No endorsement (110)
  Non-Republicans (202)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the South Carolina House of Representatives.
  Endorsed Donald Trump (61)
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (4) (withdrawn)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (4)
  Endorsed Tim Scott (2) (withdrawn)
  No endorsement (17)
  Non-Republicans (36)
Endorsements by incumbent Republicans in the South Carolina Senate.
  Endorsed Donald Trump (7)
  Endorsed Nikki Haley (5)
  Endorsed Tim Scott (4) (withdrawn)
  Endorsed Ron DeSantis (1) (withdrawn)
  No endorsement (13)
  Non-Republicans (16)

Opinion polling

Local regression graph of all polls conducted since January 2023.

Campaign finance

This is an overview of the money used by each campaign as it is reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Totals raised include individual contributions, loans from the candidate, and transfers from other campaign committees. Individual contributions are itemized (catalogued) by the FEC when the total value of contributions by an individual comes to more than $200. The last column, Cash On Hand, shows the remaining cash each campaign had available for its future spending as of September 30, 2023. Campaign finance reports for the fourth quarter of 2023 will become available on January 15, 2024.[184]

This table does not include contributions made to Super PACs or party committees supporting the candidate. Each value is rounded up to the nearest dollar.

  Candidate who withdrew prior to September 30
  Candidate who withdrew following September 30
Overview of campaign financing for candidates in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries through September 30, 2023
Candidate Total raised Total raised
since last quarter
Individual contributions Debt Spent Spent since
last quarter
Cash on hand
Total Unitemized Pct
DeSantis[185] $31,647,462 $11,159,968 $29,053,203 $5,587,634 19.2% $1,089,428 $19,320,557 $11,073,186 $12,326,905
Haley[186] $18,709,236 $8,240,333 $14,115,020 $3,413,529 24.2% $0 $7,157,544 $3,502,174 $11,551,692
Hutchinson[187] $1,249,302 $666,781 $1,127,734 $466,918 41.4% $0 $924,015 $720,172 $325,287
Ramaswamy[188] $26,609,180 $7,444,499 $9,560,937 $4,466,614 46.7% $15,250,000 $22,361,303 $12,227,262 $4,247,877
Trump[189] $60,523,078 $24,535,602 $198,506 $48,495 24.4% $295,222 $22,981,118 $9,510,032 $37,541,961
Burgum[190] $15,179,666 $3,411,365 $2,935,366 $593,430 20.2% $12,200,653 $12,857,090 $4,742,728 $2,322,576
Christie[191] $5,439,033 $3,782,647 $5,405,108 $1,515,736 28.0% $0 $1,523,814 $1,457,602 $3,915,219
Elder[192] $1,437,945 $970,414 $1,412,068 $958,737 63.7% $0 $1,193,444 $1,050,530 $244,501
Hurd[193] $1,452,538 $1,179,025 $1,449,065 $731,948 50.5% $0 $1,229,463 $1,201,069 $223,074
Johnson[194] $14,569,477 $5,762,284 $147,720 $0 0% $12,502,240 $13,441,587 $7,174,976 $1,127,750
Pence[195] $4,525,729 $3,356,996 $4,345,294 $1,830,940 42.1% $621,445 $3,344,277 $3,269,934 $1,181,451
Scott[196] $13,048,548 $4,597,516 $11,085,680 $3,676,600 33.2% $927,827 $21,902,702 $12,374,262 $13,330,124[g]
Suarez[197] $1,425,517 $480,067 $1,425,517 $125,798 8.8% $35,903 $1,365,124 $1,318,524 $60,393

Primaries and caucus calendar

Caucuses and primaries in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Date[198] Total
delegates
Primaries/caucuses
January 15 40 Iowa caucus
January 23 22 New Hampshire primary
February 6 - Nevada primary[h]
February 8 30 26
4[i]
Nevada caucus
Virgin Islands caucus
February 24 50 South Carolina primary
February 27 16 Michigan primary
March 2 71 32
39
54
Idaho caucus
Michigan caucus
Missouri caucus
March 1–3 19 District of Columbia primary
March 4 29 North Dakota caucus
March 5
(Super Tuesday)
874 49
28
9
40
169
37
20
40
39
75
43
58
162
40
17
48
Alabama primary
Alaska primary
American Samoa caucus
Arkansas primary
California primary
Colorado primary
Maine primary
Massachusetts primary
Minnesota primary
North Carolina primary
Oklahoma primary
Tennessee primary
Texas primary
Utah caucus
Vermont primary
Virginia primary
March 9 9 Guam caucuses
March 10 32 9
23
Northern Marianas caucuses
Puerto Rico primary
March 12 160 59
19
39
43
Georgia primary
Hawaii caucus
Mississippi primary
Washington primary
March 19 349 43
125
64
39
78
Arizona primary
Florida primary
Illinois primary
Kansas primary
Ohio primary
March 23 46 Louisiana primary
April 2 195 28
16
91
19
41
Connecticut primary
Delaware primary
New York primary
Rhode Island primary
Wisconsin primary
April 18–20 29 Wyoming caucuses
April 23 67 Pennsylvania primary
May 7 58 Indiana primary
May 14 104 37
36
31
Maryland primary
Nebraska primary
West Virginia primary
May 21 77 46
31
Kentucky primary
Oregon primary
June 4 91 31
9[j]
22
29
Montana primary
New Jersey primary
New Mexico primary
South Dakota primary

Timing

Republican Party rules mandate that changes to all contest dates must occur by September 2023, and there appears to be a trend of contests being scheduled earlier than usual.[201] They specify that all must occur between March and June 11, 2024 – except for Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina – which are allowed to hold contests in February. Iowa chose to hold its caucus the earliest in over a decade, on a federal holiday – January 15 – as the rules are not legally binding.[202]

New Hampshire is expected in late January, a result of state law requiring it to be held at least a week prior to other primaries. Nevada is expected on February 6, with South Carolina on February 24 and Michigan on February 27. The bulk of contests will be concentrated in March, as in previous presidential primaries.[203]

Nevada controversy

After the 2020 presidential election, the Democratic-controlled Nevada Legislature moved to establish a presidential primary for the Republican and Democratic parties.[204] Previously, party-organized caucuses were used in Nevada to determine delegates in presidential elections.

In May 2023, the Nevada Republican Party sued the state of Nevada in an effort to continue the use of caucuses as the means to determine its delegate allocation. It was stated in a court filing from the Nevada Attorney General's office that the Nevada Republican Party was allowed to choose between a primary or caucus, since the primary is non-binding and because state law does not mandate specific rules governing how political parties are to choose its candidate for president.[205]

On August 14, 2023, the Nevada Republican Party announced it would hold its caucuses on February 8 with the February 6 state primary being non-binding.[206]

Michigan controversy

The Michigan primary will take place 2 weeks early, on February 27, 2024 – if its legislature adjourns as expected a month early by November 29, 2023. Michigan legislature laws not passed with a supermajority go into effect 90 days after the adjournment of its session.[207]

The Michigan primaries were originally scheduled to be held in March and thus in accordance with Republican rules, but Democrats, who are in control of the Michigan legislature and governorship after the 2022 midterm elections, decided to move up both primaries as part of their own 2024 presidential delegate selection plan. As a result, the earlier date of February 27 violates Republican rules – which state that only Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina can vote earlier than March 1, 2024.

Michigan Republicans are facing a harsh penalty of up to 90% of their delegates being stripped, if they go forward with their earlier primary. Republicans in Michigan have criticized Democrats in Michigan for their unilateral move and are considering boycotting the earlier primary and instead are considering a party-run caucus later in March.[208]

Delegates

There will be an estimated total of 2,467 delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention. In contests until March 15, delegates must be awarded on a proportional basis, either by percentage of statewide vote or share of congressional districts won. Some states have established thresholds between 4 and 20% for proportionality to kick in, under which a candidate receives no delegates. A vast majority, 41 contests totaling 1,920 delegates, operate this way using methods that are hybrid between proportionality and majority-take-all. New York for example has a 20% threshold for proportionality but if a candidate wins a majority, they take all delegates.[209][210]

North Dakota, Wyoming, American Samoa, Guam, Virgin Islands, and 51 of Pennsylvania's 67 delegates are unpledged (free to vote for anyone at the convention), totaling 119. Florida, New Jersey, Ohio, Colorado, Arizona, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Montana's delegates are strictly awarded on a plurality-take-all basis, totaling 428. It will be possible for a candidate to take all 928 delegates of 19 contests by simply winning a threshold of votes.[211][212]

By Super Tuesday, over 40% of delegates will have been awarded, and most by March 19. Republican Party rules mandate changes to delegate allocation methods happen by September 30. The primaries will conclude with a final vote on the nominee by a majority of delegates, at the newly elected Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which will be held July 15–18.[213][214]

Candidate filing deadlines

As of August 2023, at least 20 states have announced their filing deadlines for presidential candidates seeking the nomination of their party in order to appear on the state's ballots. Between September 1 and October 15, 2023, Nevada has the nation's first filing window and deadline for its February 8, 2024, presidential caucus. The filing window for the New Hampshire primary will be between October 11–27. 13 additional states, including populous California and Texas, have filing deadlines by December 22, 2023.[215]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ This delegate count is accurate as of November 2024. Delegate counts are subject to change based on the number of Republicans elected to the state legislatures, governorships, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate through December 31, 2023.
  2. ^ Trump's state of residence in 2016 was New York, but his state of residence changed to Florida when he moved to Mar-a-Lago in 2019.
  3. ^ The Delaware Republican primary was cancelled and Trump was declared the winner after no other candidate filed[24]
  4. ^ The South Dakota Republican primary was cancelled and Trump was declared the winner after no other candidate filed.[25]
  5. ^ Archived August 23, 2023, at the Wayback Machine
  6. ^ The first North Dakotan to run for president was U.S. Representative William Lemke who ran as the Union Party's nominee in 1936, but Lemke was not born in the state. The first person born in the state to run for president was Gary Johnson who ran as the Libertarian Party's nominee in 2012 and 2016; Johnson briefly sought the Republican nomination in 2012.[102]
  7. ^ Scott's principal campaign committee, Tim Scott for America, was also used for his earlier congressional campaigns. Some of these figures, therefore, include money left over from those previous candidacies.
  8. ^ The state-organized primary will be boycotted by the Nevada Republican Party and its results ignored in favor of the party-organized caucus two days later.
  9. ^ The U.S. Virgin Islands was stripped of half of its delegates for scheduling its caucus before March 1.[199]
  10. ^ New Jersey lost 40 of its delegates for scheduling its primary after May 31.[200]

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