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2024 United States presidential election

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For related races, see 2024 United States elections.

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2024 United States presidential election
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
 
Party Democratic Republican
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2024 electoral map, based on 2020 census
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



2024 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Third parties
Related races
← 2020 2024 2028 →

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.[1] Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election.[2] His predecessor Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election to a second, nonconsecutive term.[3] If both are nominated by their respective parties, it will mark the first presidential rematch since 1956. A number of primary election challengers have also declared their candidacies for the nomination of both major parties. The winner of this election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.

Prior to the general election, political parties will choose their nominees at nominating conventions. Delegates to the nominating conventions will be chosen by voters in state-level caucuses and primary elections.

The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House. Several states will also hold gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Crime,[4] education,[5] immigration,[6] gun control,[7][8] healthcare, abortion access,[9] LGBT rights (especially transgender rights), the state of the economy,[10] climate change[11] and the indictments against Donald Trump are expected to be leading campaign issues.

Background

Procedure

Main article: United States presidential election § Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Both incumbent president Biden and former president Donald Trump are eligible. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.[12] Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election.[13]

Both Biden and Trump have announced that they are running for president in 2024, suggesting a potential rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956.[14] If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.[15]

Electoral map

Effects of the 2020 census

Main article: 2020 United States redistricting cycle

This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census.[16][17] If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.[18]

Electoral partisanship

Further information: Red states and blue states
Expected partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored gray.

In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one party. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia.[19] North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%.[20] Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, states like Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.[21][22][23]

The traditional Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, is mainly composed of minority groups (especially African-Americans and Latinos), women, educated professionals, and urban voters.[24] Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party became significantly more diverse and culturally liberal.[25] Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural white voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters.[26] Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement, a brand of right-wing populism cultivated by former President Donald Trump.[27] The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, since the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.[28]

Campaign issues

Legality of abortion

Main article: Abortion in the United States

Legal abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign. This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion.[9] The second is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts.[29] Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.[9][29]

In 2022, six states held elections for ballot measures relating to the legality of abortion, and the pro-abortion rights side was victorious in every case, including in states easily won by President Trump.[30] By April 2023, a large majority of Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it "largely illegal" throughout much of the United States.[9] According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.[9]

Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right.[31] The topic of abortion will likely play a role in the Republican primary; some candidates such as former vice president Mike Pence, support federal restrictions on abortion and a ban of mifepristone,[32] while other candidates including former president Donald Trump do not support federal restrictions on the procedure.[33][9][34] The topic hasn't received much attention from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is also running for president and is widely seen as the leading challenger to former President Donald Trump. However, when a six-week abortion restriction was authorized by the Florida Legislature, DeSantis signed it into law on that day.[35]

State and federal indictments

Further information: Indictments against Donald Trump, Smith special counsel investigation, Prosecution of Donald Trump in New York, Federal prosecution of Donald Trump (classified documents case), Federal prosecution of Donald Trump (election obstruction case), Georgia election racketeering prosecution, and Weiss special counsel investigation

On November 18, 2022, three days after former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump announced his 2024 re-election bid, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Jack Smith as special counsel to investigate Trump's role in the January 6 U.S. capitol attack and Trump's mishandling of government documents, including classified documents.

On March 30, 2023, Trump was indicted by a grand jury in Manhattan for his alleged role in a scandal stemming from hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels before the 2016 presidential election.[36]

On June 8, 2023, Trump was indicted on 37 federal charges related to his alleged mishandling of classified documents by the office of the Smith special counsel investigation.[37]

On August 1, 2023, a Washington D.C. federal grand jury indicted Trump again on four felony counts of conspiracy and obstruction related to Trump's role in the January 6 attack and his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.[38]

On August 14, 2023, a Georgia grand jury indicted Trump on racketeering and other felonies committed in an effort to overturn the state's 2020 election results and the Trump–Raffensperger phone call.[39][40] As of September 15, 2023, Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges.

On August 11, 2023, four months after incumbent president and Democratic candidate Joe Biden announced his re-election bid, Garland appointed David C. Weiss to serve as special counsel to investigate Biden's son, Hunter Biden, who was indicted on September 14, 2023 on three federal firearms-related charges.[41][42]

Economic issues

Main article: Economy of the United States
Further information: U.S. federal government response to the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which are likely to persist into 2024.[43] A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply-chain crisis, which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.[44][45] Opinion polling over Biden's handling of the economy has consistently been negative since late 2021.[46] Voters often cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.[47][48]

Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities.[49] Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these would expire before the 2024 election.[50] Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.[51]

Education

Main article: Education in the United States
Further information: 2020s controversies around critical race theory

Under the Biden administration, several rounds of student loan forgiveness have been issued, totaling over $32 billion in relief, including for borrowers who had educational institutions who misled them on job placement, for borrowers who have become permanently disabled, and for borrowers enrolled in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program.[52] In August 2022, a plan was unveiled that would eliminate $10,000 in student loan debt for single graduates making less than $125,000 or married couples making less than $250,000.[53] $20,000 would be eliminated for borrowers of Pell Grants, a program aimed at providing need-based assistance.[54] In June 2023, this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v. Nebraska, which ruled that the HEROES Act, which the Biden administration had relied upon for authority, did not allow for widespread loan forgiveness.[55][56] Biden intends to implement new methods of student debt relief, working around the Supreme Court decision.[57]

Some Republican candidates/prospective candidates see education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment.[58][59][60] Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.[61]

Election interference

Main article: Election interference
Further information: Republican efforts to restrict voting following the 2020 presidential election, Attempts to overturn the 2020 United States presidential election, and January 6 United States Capitol attack

Donald Trump did not concede to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud, and has continued denying the election results as of 2023.[62][63] Republican officials in the Trump administration and in Congress have supported attempts to overturn the election.[64][65] Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.[66]

In the aftermath of the January 6 United States Capitol attack, FBI director Christopher A. Wray testified that far-right domestic terrorism "has been metastasizing across the country for a long time now, and it's not going away anytime soon."[67] Ali Alexander, who organized one of the many rallies preceding the U.S. Capitol attack, stated in August 2022 that he would be returning to the Capitol building in 2025 "for whatever the Congress certifies."[68]

Voluminous public polling has shown that large majorities of Americans belonging to both political parties believe that democracy in the United States is at risk.[69] Voters often cite different sources of threats to democracy depending on ideology. Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election.[70] Many conservatives believe that the Democrats cheated in the 2020 election,[71] and attempted and/or were still attempting to remove former President Trump from holding public office by any means necessary, including impeachment and indictment.[72] Voters of both parties tend to agree that the influence of money in politics, the potential for political violence, and general corruption of public officials are aggravating factors threatening the health of American democracy.[73]

Firearms regulation

Main articles: Gun violence in the United States and Mass shootings in the United States

During a National Rifle Association (NRA) conference in Indianapolis on April 14, 2023, Donald Trump and other potential Republican presidential candidates expressed their support for gun owners' rights, on the heels of recent mass shootings in Nashville and Louisville. Democrats criticized the GOP's march of candidates in front of the NRA, saying firearms will be a big issue throughout the 2024 election year.[35]

President Joe Biden has asked Congress to pass an assault weapons ban following the shooting in Nashville.[74]

Foreign policy

Main article: Foreign policy of the United States

The United States has provided significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine.[75] Democratic politicians and a significant number of Republican politicians have supported this plan, arguing that the United States has a significant role to play in "protecting democracy and fighting Russian aggression."[76] Some candidates, including Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, claim that Ukraine and suppressing Russian intervention should not be a significant interest to the United States, and that the plan should be more limited.[77] Vivek Ramaswamy favors ending U.S. military aid to Ukraine and would recognize Russian annexed territories.[78]

LGBT rights

Main articles: LGBT rights in the United States and Transgender rights in the United States
Further information: 2020s anti-LGBT movement in the United States

In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.[79][80]

In a February campaign message, Donald Trump said that if reelected, he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders, claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left", and would enact nearly a dozen policies that would target transgender Americans. Ron DeSantis has signed several anti-LGBT laws as Governor of Florida, including the controversial Florida Parental Rights in Education Act, referred to by critics as the "Don't Say Gay" law, which prohibits speaking about sexual orientation and gender identity in Florida public schools.[81]

Democratic Party

Main article: 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries

On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.[82] Consequently, Republicans have intensified their criticism of Kamala Harris since Joe Biden declared his intention to run for office.[83] During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election,[84] and some prominent Democrats publicly urged Biden not to run.[85][86][87] In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.[88] According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans—including 51 percent of Democrats—believe Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's current approval rating is 41 percent, while 55 percent disapprove.[89] There was also speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction.[90][91] After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.[92]

Biden's most formidable challenger to date is Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer who founded the Children's Health Defense, the Waterkeeper Alliance, and is an outspoken anti-vaccine activist and opponent of both government and private censorship of free speech.[93] Since July 2023, Kennedy's support has remained between 10-15% in the RealClear Politics average of polls taken among likely voters in the Democratic primary.[94] While Kennedy has remained a lifelong Democrat, his net approval rating among Democrats is significantly lower than his net approval rating among Republican voters. In a New York Times/Sienna College poll taken in late July, Kennedy has a net 31% disapproval rating among Democrats, while he has a net 36% approval rating among Republicans.[95]

Declared candidates

Other declared candidates

Republican Party

Main article: 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is eligible to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland.[96] He filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day.[97][98] Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022.[99] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[100]

In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.[101] Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.[102][103]

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.[104][105][106] On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable — it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy.[107] Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States.[108][109] At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.[110]

Declared candidates

Other declared candidates

Withdrawn candidates before the primaries

Independent/third party

Main article: Third party and independent candidates for the 2024 United States presidential election

Nominated candidates

The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.

American Solidarity Party

Party for Socialism and Liberation

  • Claudia de la Cruz, political activist[111]

Declared candidates

The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.

Libertarian Party

Main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

Green Party

Main article: 2024 Green Party presidential primaries

Independent/others

Potential Candidates

Forecasts

Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:

  • "tossup": no advantage
  • "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
  • "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
  • "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections (all three) are omitted for brevity.

State EVs PVI[129] 2020
result 		2020
margin[130] 		IE
April 26,
2023[131] 		Sabato
June 29,
2023[132] 		Cook
July 27,
2023[133]
Alaska 3 R+8 52.8% R 10.06% Solid R Likely R Solid R
Arizona 11 R+2 49.4% D 0.31% Tossup Tossup Tossup
Florida 30 R+3 51.2% R 3.36% Lean R Likely R Likely R
Georgia 16 R+3 49.5% D 0.24% Tossup Tossup Tossup
Iowa 6 R+6 53.1% R 8.20% Likely R Likely R Solid R
Maine[e] 2 D+2 53.1% D 9.07% Likely D Likely D Likely D
ME–02[e] 1 R+6 52.3% R 7.44% Lean R Lean R Likely R
Michigan 15 R+1 50.6% D 2.78% Tilt D Lean D Lean D
Minnesota 10 D+1 52.4% D 7.11% Lean D Likely D Likely D
NE–02[e] 1 EVEN 52.0% D 6.50% Lean D Lean D Likely D
New Hampshire 4 D+1 52.7% D 7.35% Lean D Lean D Likely D
Nevada 6 R+1 50.1% D 2.39% Tilt D Tossup Lean D
New Mexico 5 D+3 54.3% D 10.79% Solid D Likely D Solid D
North Carolina 16 R+3 49.9% R 1.35% Tilt R Lean R Lean R
Ohio 17 R+6 53.3% R 8.03% Likely R Likely R Solid R
Pennsylvania 19 R+2 50.0% D 1.16% Tossup Lean D Tossup
Texas 40 R+5 52.1% R 5.58% Likely R Likely R Likely R
Virginia 13 D+3 54.1% D 10.11% Likely D Likely D Solid D
Wisconsin 10 R+2 49.5% D 0.63% Tossup Tossup Tossup
Overall D - 247
R - 235
56 tossups 		D - 260
R - 235
43 tossups 		D - 247
R - 235
56 tossups

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Cassidy is a member of the Republican Party, but has expressed willingness to talk to the group No Labels about a third-party run.
  2. ^ Cheney is a member of the Republican Party, but has been named as a potential candidate for an independent or third party run.
  3. ^ Hogan is a member of the Republican Party, but has been named as a potential candidate for a "unity ticket" for the group No Labels.
  4. ^ Manchin is a member of the Democratic Party, but has been named as a potential candidate for a "unity ticket" for the group No Labels.
  5. ^ a b c Unlike the other 48 states and Washington, D.C., which award all of their electors to the candidate who receives the most votes in that state, Maine and Nebraska award two electors to the winner of the statewide vote and one each to the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.

References

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