Axis of Upheaval

  Axis of Upheaval (Russia, China, Iran, North Korea)

The Axis of Upheaval, the "deadly quartet", or "CRINK", is a term coined in 2024 by Center for a New American Security foreign policy analysts Richard Fontaine and Andrea Kendall-Taylor and used by many foreign policy analysts, military officials, and international groups to describe the growing Anti-Western collaboration between Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea beginning in the early 2020s.

The loose alliance generally represented itself in diplomatic addresses and public statements as an "anti-hegemony" and "anti-imperialist" coalition with intentions to challenge what it deemed to be a Western-dominated global order to reshape international relations into a multipolar order according to their shared interests. While not a formal bloc, these nations have increasingly coordinated their economic, military, and diplomatic efforts, making strong efforts to aid each other to undermine Western influence.

Term

The "Axis of Upheaval" as a term was coined in the April 2024 article "The Axis of Upheaval" written by foreign policy analysts Richard Fontaine and Andrea Kendall-Taylor for the Foreign Affairs magazine, as part of the Center for a New American Security United States-based national security think tank. Fontaine picked the phrase due to it representing the group of nations' shared disdain for and desire to uproot Western influence and values without using language that was "too overbearing", such as with the "Axis of Evil" or "axis of autocracy".

NATO policy planning head Benedetta Berti expressed that she preferred to use the phrase "strategic convergence" instead of "axis" when describing the coalition of nations.

Background

See also: Russian invasion of Ukraine, Cross-strait relations, and Axis of Resistance

The roots of cooperation among nations in the axis stretch back decades during the onset of the Cold War, based on the divide between the First World and Second World. The Soviet Union represented the lead superpower of the latter, providing assistance to and sharing communist, anti-Western philosophies with the People's Republic of China and North Korea.

While these nations have generally remained on neutral or good terms since the break-up of the Soviet Union, their alliance intensified significantly following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Foreign policy analyst Andrea Kendall-Taylor stated that it seemed that Russian President Vladimir Putin misjudged the level of "extraordinary" Western coordination between the United States, Europe, and other West-friendly countries on economic sanctions and military aid to Ukraine. However, she expressed that the West's hardline and absolute response inadvertently served as a catalyst for Russia to accelerate pushing for closer economic and diplomatic ties with nations at odd with Western nations, due to it seemingly marking a "point of no return" for Russian–Western relations that increased Putin's determination to move past them.

Characteristics

While the Axis of Upheaval is not a formal union or alliance, it is generally united by a shared opposition to what it calls U.S. hegemony and the Western-led international order. The axis's countries have dramatically increased their economic and military cooperation while coordinating their diplomatic, information, and security efforts, operating as a loose coalition of like-minded states in resistance to economic or ideological pressure from Western nations.

Anti-Western sentiment

See also: Polarity (international relations)

The motivations driving the loose alliance are multi-faceted, but are primarily centered on a desire for greater regional influence and control away from Western powers' "imperialism". The axis members reject Western-defined universal values and the "championing of its brand of democracy as an attempt to undermine their legitimacy and foment domestic instability". They view U.S. presence in their regions of influence as a threat to their interests and sovereignty, stating that they should hold the right to instate democracy based on their own institutions and culture instead of being forcibly shaped by Western principles. Collectively, they represent themselves as anti-imperialists sharing the goal of creating a multipolar world order that diminishes U.S. global dominance, which includes resisting "external meddling in their internal affairs, the expansion of U.S. alliances, the stationing of American nuclear weapons abroad, and the use of coercive sanctions".

Economic cooperation

Economic ties among the axis members have strengthened considerably since 2022. Following an early 2022 signing of a joint agreement between President of China Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin establishing a "'no-limits' partnership", China has become Russia's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching record levels in 2023 and 2024. In 2023, trade between Russia and China exceeded US$240 billion, with Russia replacing Saudi Arabia's petroleum trade as China’s largest petroleum source. Iran and Russia have agreed to conduct trade in each others' national currencies to reduce each others' dependency on the U.S. dollar in international transactions. China has also increased its purchases of Russian oil and natural gas, providing a crucial economic "lifeline" to Russia's oil industry and economy in the face of pressure generated by wide-sweeping Western sanctions. Many of these trade agreements, alternative networks, and transactions across shared borders appeared to be set in place specifically in order to circumvent Western sanctions and trade restrictions.

For Iran, exports from Russia increased by 27% from January to October 2022.

Russia also defied United Nations Security Council sanctions by unfreezing North Korean assets worth several millions in USD.

Military cooperation

Military collaboration has also intensified between the four states, with Iran providing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to Russia for use in Ukraine. From the beginning of Russia's invasion to the end of April 2024, Russia used ~3,700 drones designed by Iran in combat, and expressed plans to collaborate with Iran on constructing a Russian drone factory. Russia reciprocated the military assistance by granting Iran new air defense, intelligence and surveillance capabilities, modern aircraft, and cyber abilities. Russia has also provided Iran and Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah with more weapons, especially following the onset of the 2023 Israel–Hezbollah conflict.

While China has publicly avoided transferring weapons to Russia, it has exporting over US$300 million in dual-use items that can be used both by civilians and in the military if shipped components are put together or adapted for military use. Dual-use items exported to Russia from China include microchips, jamming equipment, telecommunications equipment, jet plane parts, sensors and radar, and machine tools, each of which helped to sustain its war effort and avert shortages caused by Western sanctions. From 2018 to 2022, Russia supplied 83% of China’s military arms imports. China's exports to Russia contributed to half of its growing supply of computer microchips and components, reaching levels close to where they were prior to the invasion.

North Korea has supplied Russia with roughly 2.5 million ammunition rounds and ballistic missiles.

The four nations have also engaged in various kinds of joint military exercises, including naval exercises between China, Iran, and Russia in the Gulf of Oman over the past three years, and Russian-proposed naval exercises between it, North Korea, and China.

Diplomatic cooperation

Diplomatic coordination among the axis members has become increasingly apparent, with each nation offering mutual support in international forums such as the United Nations. Russia and China have made efforts to legitimize Iran by including it in organizations such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Their coordinated messaging on global issues frequently stood directly in opposition to Western and United States-led interpretations of world events, with a "shared purpose of overturning the principles, rules, and institutions that underlie the prevailing international system".

Russia has defended Hezbollah and other proxies of Iran during UN Security Council debates. Likewise, China has publicly released statements and made stances during international debates blaming NATO interference in Ukraine for starting the war. In addition, Russia, Iran, and China used their state media and social media to support Hamas, to justify actions taken by them, and to criticize Israel and the US following the October 2023 attack for their hypocritical roles in mass civilian attacks and humanitarian crises in the Gaza Strip.

Impact

The rapid development of the Axis of Upheaval worked to undermine the effectiveness of Western sanctions and export controls such as those against Russia, eroded U.S. military advantages in key regions including the Middle East, and presented increased challenges to international norms and institutions. Moreover, the axis's actions have emboldened other anti-Western states and actors, contributing to a more unstable global environment.

Foreign policy analyst Andrea Kendall-Taylor believed that the resulting influence of the axis of nations is pushing transformation of the current "international system" into one characterized by two increasingly organized orders with opposing values and regional interests, a shift she predicted is likely to give rise to greater global instability and initiation of conflict. She noted several instances of increasing worldwide conflict related to the coalition's cooperation. These included increased regional conflicts such as Azerbaijan's renewed invasion and reintegration of Nagorno-Karabakh, threats to Guyana from Venezuela, increasing tension between Kosovo and Serbia, and an increase in coups in several African nations including Niger and Burkina Faso. She predicted that opportunistic aggression, such as Russia attacking Europe while the United States is involved in a war against China, could be a future driver of worldwide conflict.

Analysis

American diplomat and historian Philip Zelikow stated that the Axis of Upheaval represented the third time in recent history that the United States faced a "purposeful set of powerful adversaries in a rapidly changing and militarized period of history, short of all-out war." The prior instances included the Axis Powers of Italy, Germany, and Japan from 1937-1941, and the beginning of the Cold War against the Soviet Union and China from 1948-1962. He analyzed that the leaders of the current Axis of Upheaval share characteristics with leaders of these earlier periods such as Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, and Mao Zedong; viewing themselves as historical figures operating in isolated environments separate from dissenting views and pressures. He stated that this isolation shared by the four nations' leaders can lead to decisions that may seem irrational to outside observers, with autocratic state propaganda further censoring dissenting viewpoints while characterizing other international orders as existential threats to them and their culture that requires conflict and sacrifice to repel.

Zelikow predicted that these conditions could lead to an "exceptionally volatile, dynamic and unstable period of world history" over the next two to three years, with the possibility of either wider war or an uneasy, unstable peace. He analyzed that while the United States, Europe, and its allies may be better positioned for long-term strategic competition in general, they could struggle to face more short to medium term conflicts due to an overextension of resources and public attention to different international conflicts, difficulty in analyzing and predicting axis members' actions, and overconfidence due to historical success over past antagonistic alliances in WWII and the Cold War.

Challenges

Despite their growing cooperation, historical distrust from prior events exist, such as the Soviet Union's 1941 invasion of Iran, China's apprehension to North Korea's militant aggression, and a border dispute between Russia and China that ended in 2004. Current competing interests between the nations include disputes between Russia and China over control in Central Asia and competition between Iran and Russia for Asian oil markets. Furthermore, the axis does not seem to have a coherent positive vision for a new global order, and its members remain economically interdependent with the West to varying degrees, making direct opposition to ultimatums issued more difficult to justify.

Despite this, political scientist Hal Brands remarked that their alliance forged from their mutual disdain for the "existing order" resembled many of history's "most destructive alliances", which were made from rough agreements to band together against a greater opposing order or alliance with "little coordination and even less affection".

Western response

In response to this emerging threat, Western nations, led by the United States, have increased their focus on countering the collective challenge posed by the axis, which involved efforts to strengthen existing alliances and partnerships. In 2024, NATO reaffirmed its security commitments in unstable regions such as in Southeast Asia, and called for increased defense spending and diplomatic engagement to match increased cooperation from potentially destabilizing unions.

Foreign policy analyst Andrea Kendall-Taylor argued that defeating Russia in Ukraine would be crucial to weakening the axis's ability to cause destabilization. She also believed that the US should not de-prioritize Russian aggression towards Ukraine and Europe while primarily focusing on China's South China Sea dispute due to both conflicts being connected by the axis. She stated that Europe needed to develop a stronger military and push for a greater emphasis on foreign policy so that the U.S. could address different global conflicts evenly without its resources and attention being stretched too thin. General Sir Roly Walker corroborated these statements, stating that the United Kingdom needed to "double the lethality of its army" in three years to prepare for conflict with nations of the Axis of Upheaval.

The Biden administration received strong criticism from progressive Democrats and worldwide pro-Palestinian groups and governments for delivering Israel large weapon shipments and for strongly supporting the Israeli government in international decisions during Israel's invasion of the Gaza Strip. This U.S. response towards Israeli actions in Gaza was seen by Russia, China, and Iran as a blatant contradiction of Western vows towards using its power to promote human rights and international order, prompting closer ties to axis countries from other alienated nations.

See also

• Axis of evil
• Axis of Resistance
• BRICS
• China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
• Iran and the Russian invasion of Ukraine
• Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

External links

• "The Axis of Upheaval" – by Richard Fontaine and Andrea Kendall-Taylor in Foreign Affairs
• NATO Public Forum: The Axis of Upheaval – from CSIS