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| type = primary
| type = primary
| ongoing = yes
| ongoing = yes
| previous_election = 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
| previous_election = 1952 Republican Party presidential primaries
| previous_year = 2020
| previous_year = 2020
| next_election = 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries
| next_election = 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries

Revision as of 07:07, 16 June 2023

2028 Republican Party presidential primaries
← 2020 February to June 2024[1] 2028 →
2,467 delegates (2,392 pledged and 75 unpledged) to the Republican National Convention[2][a]
1,234[2] votes needed to win
Opinion polls
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First place by first-instance vote
Previous Republican nominee

Donald Trump


2024 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Third parties
Related races
← 2020 2024 2028 →

Presidential primaries and caucuses are being organized by the Republican Party to select the delegates to the 2024 Republican National Convention scheduled to be held between February and June 2024 to determine the party's nominee for president of the United States in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The elections will take place individually in all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories.

Former president William Taft initiated his run for president in November 2022, a week after the 2022 midterm elections and two years ahead of the 2024 election, unusually early especially after launching his 2016 and 2020 campaigns both on the third Tuesday of June in the year before. Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley became the first to follow him on February 14, followed by wealth management executive Vivek Ramaswamy one week later, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson on April 6, radio host Larry Elder on April 20, and U.S. Senator Tim Scott on May 19. After several timetable shifts, Florida governor Ron DeSantis entered the race with a virtual message on May 24. Former Vice President Mike Pence entered the race on June 5, with former New Jersey governor Chris Christie joining on June 6, North Dakota governor Doug Burgum joining on June 7, and Miami mayor Francis X. Suarez joining June 14.

Trump is the early frontrunner, and has maintained a consistent lead in primary polling since 2020. Some Republicans have expressed apprehension about nominating Trump, owing to his loss to Joe Biden in 2020, the multiple ongoing criminal investigations into him, and the results of the 2022 midterms, when several Trump-endorsed candidates lost key races. However, many other Republicans have stood by Trump and decried the investigations into him as politically motivated. Among the non-Trump candidates, DeSantis has consistently led in polling, though he has yet to approach the support enjoyed by Trump.

Trump is the first president to run after leaving office since Herbert Hoover in 1940; if he wins, he will be the first president to serve non-consecutive terms since Grover Cleveland, who won his second term in 1892.[3] Meanwhile, Pence's candidacy makes him the first vice president to run against the president under whom they served since John Nance Garner in 1940.[4] Burgum is the first person born in North Dakota to run for president, while Haley is the first female racial minority to seek the Republican nomination.[5][6]

Candidates

Declared major candidates

The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office; have been included in at least five national polls.

Declared major candidates in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Name Born Experience Home state Campaign
Announcement date 		Ref.


Doug Burgum

August 1, 1956
(age 68)
Arthur, North Dakota 		Governor of North Dakota
(2016–present)
North Dakota 		File:Doug Burgum for America logo.png
Campaign
June 7, 2023
FEC filing[7] 		[8]


Chris Christie

September 6, 1962
(age 62)
Newark, New Jersey 		Governor of New Jersey
(2010–2018)
U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey
(2002–2008)
Candidate for president in 2016
New Jersey
Campaign
June 6, 2023
FEC filing[9] 		[10]


Ron DeSantis

September 14, 1978
(age 46)
Jacksonville, Florida 		Governor of Florida
(2019–present)
U.S. Representative from FL-06
(2013–2018)
Florida
Campaign
May 24, 2023
FEC filing[11] 		[12]

Larry Elder 		April 27, 1952
(age 72)
Los Angeles, California 		Host of The Larry Elder Show
(1993–2022)
Candidate for Governor of California in 2021
California
Campaign
April 20, 2023
FEC filing[13] 		[14]
File:Nikki Haley 2020 Portrait Cropped.jpg
Nikki Haley 		January 20, 1972
(age 52)
Bamberg, South Carolina 		Ambassador to the United Nations
(2017–2018)
Governor of South Carolina
(2011–2017)
South Carolina State Representative
(2005–2011)
South Carolina
Campaign
February 14, 2023
FEC filing[15] 		[16]
File:Asa Hutchinson Judiciary Comittee Portrait Cropped.jpg
Asa Hutchinson 		December 3, 1950
(age 73)
Bentonville, Arkansas 		Governor of Arkansas
(2015–2023)
Under Secretary of Homeland Security
(2003–2005)
Administrator of the Drug Enforcement Administration
(2001–2003)
Arkansas
Campaign
April 6, 2023
FEC filing[17] 		[18]

Mike Pence 		June 7, 1959
(age 65)
Columbus, Indiana 		Vice President of the United States
(2017–2021)
Governor of Indiana
(2013–2017)
U.S. Representative from Indiana
(2001–2013)
Indiana
Campaign
June 5, 2023
FEC filing[19] 		[20]

Vivek Ramaswamy 		August 9, 1985
(age 39)
Cincinnati, Ohio 		Executive chairman of Strive Asset Management
(2022–present)
Ohio
Campaign
February 21, 2023
FEC filing[21] 		[22]
File:Tim Scott 3-3-2022 (1).jpg
Tim Scott 		September 19, 1965
(age 59)
North Charleston, South Carolina 		U.S. Senator from South Carolina
(2013–present)
U.S. Representative from SC-01
(2011–2013)
South Carolina State Representative
(2009–2011)
South Carolina
Campaign
May 19, 2023
FEC filing[23] 		[24]

Francis X. Suarez 		October 6, 1977
(age 47)
Miami, Florida 		Mayor of Miami
(2017–present)
Member of the Miami City Commission
(2009–2017)
Florida
Campaign
June 14, 2023
FEC filing[25] 		[26]
File:Donald Trump AFPI Portrait Cropped.jpg
Donald Trump 		June 14, 1946
(age 78)
Queens, New York 		President of the United States
(2017–2021)
Chairman of The Trump Organization
(1971–2017)
Florida
Campaign
November 15, 2022
FEC filing[27][28] 		[29]


Other declared candidates

The candidates in this section are otherwise notable, but have not met the criteria outlined above.


Decision pending

As of June 2023, the following notable individuals are expected to make a decision regarding their official candidacy within a set timeline.


Publicly expressed interest

As of June 2023, the following notable individuals have expressed an interest in running for president within the previous six months.

Potential candidates

As of June 2023, there has been speculation about the potential candidacy of the following notable individuals within the previous six months.

Declined to be candidates

The following notable individuals have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

Vice presidential speculation

Main article: 2024 Republican Party vice presidential candidate selection

Multiple reporters, political analysts and commentators have noted that Trump selecting his former Vice President Mike Pence to be his running mate once again would be highly unlikely following rifts between the two over the future of the Republican Party and Pence's attempts to distance himself from the former president.[87][88][89] On March 15, 2022, Trump announced that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, Pence will not be his running mate.[90] In June 2022, the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack found that Trump said Pence "deserved" calls to be hanged on the day of the attack.[91] Pence has similarly stated that he has no interest in accepting the vice presidential nomination again.[92]

Several individuals have received speculation about possible selection as vice presidential nominee in 2024 including Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, Governor Glenn Youngkin of Virginia, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa, Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa, Senator Rick Scott of Florida, and Lieutenant Governor Jeanette Nuñez of Florida.[93][94] There has been speculation that former U.S. Representative Lee Zeldin of New York could become DeSantis' running mate after his strong performance in the 2022 New York gubernatorial election.[95] and both holding several rallies before and after the election together.[96][97] Some have speculated that former United Nations Ambassador and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley could be Trump's running mate.[98] Reportedly, Trump has "repeatedly" discussed the possibility of choosing United States Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene as his running mate.[99] Greene has claimed that she is in talks with Trump to become his running mate.[100]

On March 6, 2023, multiple sources close to Donald Trump, the current Republican front-runner, as reported by Axios, ran the list down to four major contenders. These were Haley; Sarah Huckabee Sanders, former White House press secretary for Trump and current governor of Arkansas, who has received media attention for her executive orders; Kristi Noem, governor of South Dakota; and Kari Lake, candidate for Arizona governor in 2022 who lost narrowly to Katie Hobbs. According to Axios, Trump's major factor in the race is loyalty, something he sees strongly in Lake given her reiterations of the claims of a stolen 2020 election.[101]

Timeline

2022

A week after the 2022 midterm elections, at Mar-a-Lago, former president Donald Trump announced that he would run again in 2024. He is seeking to become the second president after Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.[102]

2023

February 2023

On February 14, former South Carolina governor and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley announced her presidential candidacy, making her the second major candidate in the race.[103]

On February 21, anti-environmental, social and corporate governance activist Vivek Ramaswamy announced his presidential candidacy on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[104]

April 2023

On April 2, former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson announced his candidacy during an interview with ABC News' Jonathan Karl.[105]

On April 12, the junior U.S. Senator from South Carolina and former U.S. representative Tim Scott announced an exploratory committee to run for President.[106]

On April 20, former California gubernatorial candidate Larry Elder announced his campaign on Tucker Carlson Tonight.[107]

May 2023

On May 19, Tim Scott submitted FEC paperwork to run;[108] he announced his presidential run publicly on May 22.[109]

On May 24, Florida governor and former U.S. representative Ron DeSantis submitted his FEC paperwork to run,[110] and announced that he was running for president during a Twitter Spaces interview with Twitter owner Elon Musk.[111]

June 2023

On June 5, former Vice President Mike Pence filed paperwork to run for president[112] and North Dakota governor Doug Burgum released a campaign video.[113]

On June 6, Burgum published an announcement opinion-editorial piece announce his presidential run in the Wall Street Journal,[114] making him the first North Dakotan to run for president.[115] The same day, former New Jersey governor and 2016 presidential candidate Chris Christie publicly announced a presidential campaign in New Hampshire.[116]

On June 7, Pence publicly announced his bid with a campaign video.[117][118][119] Also, Burgum delivered a public announcement speech in Fargo.[120]

On June 14, Miami mayor Francis X. Suarez filed his run with the Federal Election Commission. He is due to deliver a speech the next day at the Reagan Library to publicly announce his campaign, as four other Republicans in the race have done in the last year. [121][122][123][124][125]

Other timing information

At least 17 states have filing deadlines for presidential candidates seeking the nomination of their party in order to appear on the state's ballots. The early caucus state Nevada has the first filing deadline, and 12 additional states, including populous California and Texas, have filing deadlines by December 22nd. If a candidate files in a state without a deadline, but too close to that state's primary, that candidate may not appear on the ballot. In 2020, Michael Bloomberg opted to skip early contests because of this issue. This may be necessary for Virginia governor Glenn Youngkin, who would only join the race after success in his state's November midterm elections.[126][127] However, most candidates have entered the race in modern presidential elections by June or July of the year before the primary elections.[128] As of June 2023, the exact dates of many primaries are still uncertain; they will be finalized by October 1, 2023. GOP rules mandate that changes to dates and delegate allocation methods must occur by October 1.[129] They also specify that all primaries occur between March and June 11, 2024. Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina will be the first, in February and that order currently, as they are exempted and allowed to occur 1 month early due to a tradition of allowing them to influence the rest. However, the first two appear to be scheduled in late January in some sources. The bulk will be concentrated in March, as usual in presidential primaries. By March 19, most delegates will have been awarded. The process will conclude with the formal adoption of the nominee by a majority of delegates at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, which will be held from July 15–18.[130]

Overview

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Active campaign Exploratory committee Withdrawn candidate
Primaries Midterm elections Republican National Convention

Background

Despite losing his re-election bid in 2020, Trump remains the main front-runner of the GOP and endorsed challengers to several House members who had voted to impeach him, as well as pushing several candidates through for open races. These candidates had a lackluster performance resulting in the Republicans taking control of the house with only a small majority and causing a dip in Trump's popularity within the party. At the same time Ron DeSantis, the Governor of Florida, won nearly 60% of the vote in a landslide victory in his gubernatorial re-election.[131] Media coverage consistently portrayed DeSantis as Trump's main rival, despite DeSantis not having announced a presidential run. The GOP primary in early 2023 was expected to have a small field of candidates, as its growth had not kicked off by the same time as usual in open contest primaries. However, this expectation gave away in the spring when the field ballooned with the entrances of several candidates. This presented a threat to the chances of DeSantis, the only considerable challenger to Trump, because of vote-splitting of Republicans looking past Trump.[132][133][134] DeSantis rose against Trump in GOP aggregate polls throughout 2022, eventually reaching 11 points behind him. However, since the turn of the year, Trump has resurged and DeSantis has fallen behind. This has been fueled by sentiments against an indictment of Trump on March 30. Polling from the week before DeSantis is set to join the race shows him at his lowest point yet, with Trump at 61% and him at 17%. However, he remains the top contender for being chosen vice president. National polling against incumbent president Biden shows nearly the exact result regardless of which is the GOP nominee, but because of DeSantis' prominence being more recent, more GOP voters are undecided on him than Trump.[135][136][137][138]

In March 2023, Trump attacked DeSantis with nicknames like "Meatball Ron" and "Ron DeSanctimonious". Trump then rose in the polls,[139] even as reports anticipated that he would be indicted in a hush money case regarding his 2016 campaign. Trump was indicted on March 30[140][141] and arrested on April 4.[142] On April 25, Trump suggested he would skip Republican debates, saying he did not want to be "libeled and abused" in them and boasting that he already had a "seemingly insurmountable" lead.[143] On May 10, Trump conducted a live town hall with CNN, his first time with a major network other than Fox News since storming off an interview with 60 Minutes in October 2020.[144]

Trump is the early frontrunner.[145] However, there are multiple factors working against Trump: the hearings held by the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack have damaged public opinion towards him,[146][147] his indictment in New York State over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels,[148] his indictment in federal court over mishandling of classified documents, and the judgment of liability against him for sexual abuse and defamation against journalist E. Jean Carroll.[149] Trump's poll numbers surged immediately after the New York State indictment was announced. A Yahoo News poll shows that in a Republican primary, 57% of respondents would vote for Trump.[150] In a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College poll, 80% of Republicans surveyed said Trump was being unfairly targeted.[151] Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.[90]

Debates

Main article: 2024 Republican Party presidential debates and forums

The first Republican primary debate is scheduled for August 23, 2023, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, to be hosted by Fox News.[152] Candidates will be required to meet a polling threshold of 1% and attract 40,000 unique donors.[153] The second Republican primary debate will take place at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley[154] as happened in 2016.[155] On April 25, 2023, Trump raised uncertainty about his participation in the debates on Truth Social due to his large polling lead at the time.[156]

Endorsements

Main article: Endorsements in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
Local regression graph of all polls conducted since January 2023.

Campaign finance

This is an overview of the money used by each campaign as it is reported to the Federal Election Commission (FEC). Totals raised include individual contributions, loans from the candidate, and transfers from other campaign committees. Individual contributions are itemized (catalogued) by the FEC when the total value of contributions by an individual comes to more than $200. The last column, Cash On Hand (COH), shows the remaining cash each campaign had available for its future spending as of March 31, 2023.

Overview of campaign financing for candidates in the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries through March 31, 2023
Candidate Total raised Individual contributions Debt Spent COH
Total Unitemized Pct
DeSantis[157] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Elder[158] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Haley[159] $5,125,431 $3,283,822 $798,184 24.3% $0 $1,055,881 $4,069,549
Hutchinson[160] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Ramaswamy[161] $11,406,212 $851,637 $415,580 48.8% $10,250,000 $2,038,924 $9,367,288
Scott[162] not a candidate as of March 31, 2023
Trump[163] $18,272,903 $16,361 $4,911 30.0% $255,109 $4,340,955 $13,931,948

See also

Notes

  1. ^ This delegate count is accurate as of November 2024. Delegate counts are subject to change based on the number of Republicans elected to the state legislatures, governorships, U.S. House, and U.S. Senate through December 31, 2023.

References

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