2024 United States Senate elections in California: Difference between revisions

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|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Barbara Lee (D)
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|$2,337,570
|$3,390,204
|$936,753
|$2,066,329
|$1,400,817
|$1,323,875
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|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Katie Porter (D)
|{{party shading/Democratic}}|Katie Porter (D)

Revision as of 22:51, 31 October 2023

2024 United States Senate election in California

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →

Incumbent U.S. senator

Laphonza Butler[a]
Democratic



The 2024 United States Senate elections in California will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of California. There will be two ballot items for the same Class 1 seat: a special election to fill the seat for the final weeks of the 118th United States Congress (ending on January 3, 2025), and a general election for a full term that starts on January 3, 2025, starting in the 119th United States Congress. California uses a nonpartisan blanket primary, in which all candidates regardless of party affiliation appear on the same primary ballot and the two highest-placing candidates advance to the general election. Primary elections will take place on March 5, 2024.[1]

Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein was first elected in a 1992 special election, defeating appointed Republican incumbent John Seymour to complete the term of Pete Wilson, who resigned to become California's governor. Feinstein won full terms in 1994, 2000, 2006, 2012, and 2018, and died in office on September 29, 2023, having already announced her retirement. Governor Gavin Newsom appointed Laphonza Butler as an interim replacement to hold office until the seat is filled in these elections.

Two Democratic U.S. representatives, Katie Porter of Irvine and Adam Schiff of Los Angeles, entered the race before Feinstein announced her retirement.[2][3] A third, Barbara Lee of Oakland, declared her campaign on February 21, 2023.[4] On October 19, 2023, Butler announced that she would not run for a full term.[5] This will be the first open race for the Class I seat in California since 1982.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Declared

Filed paperwork

Withdrew

Declined

Republican Party

Declared

Filed paperwork

Declined

No party preference

Declared

Declined

Primary election

Campaign

Dianne Feinstein in 2021

Media sources speculated for years that Dianne Feinstein might choose not to seek reelection in 2024 or resign before the end of her term, owing to her age, reports that her cognitive state was declining, and her decision not to take the position of Senate president pro tempore in the 118th Congress, third in line for the presidency, even though she would customarily have been offered the role as the most senior member of the majority caucus. There was also speculation that Feinstein might face opposition within the Democratic Party as she did in 2018, when she was challenged by fellow Democrat Kevin de León and defeated him by an unexpectedly narrow margin.[46] In December 2022, Feinstein confirmed that she would not resign before the end of her term.[47]

In January 2023, with the question of Feinstein's reelection decision still open, U.S. Representative Katie Porter announced that she would run for Senate. She confirmed that she would stay in the race even if Feinstein chose to run for another term.[2] Porter was first elected in 2018, unseating incumbent Mimi Walters. She later gained national fame for her progressive politics, and frequently went viral for her pointed questioning of corporate executives in congressional hearings, often while using a whiteboard.[48]

Adam Schiff at his first campaign event, February 2023

Two weeks later, Porter was joined by another Democratic member of the House, Adam Schiff, who said that he had consulted with Feinstein before entering the race.[3] A moderate Democrat who unseated incumbent James Rogan in 2000, Schiff's profile rose significantly during the presidency of Donald Trump, owing to his role as a lead impeachment manager in the first impeachment of Donald Trump, his service on the January 6 Committee, and his frequent appearances on MSNBC.[49][50]

A third Democratic House member, Barbara Lee, reportedly told members of the Congressional Black Caucus in January that she would also run for Senate.[51] As she was already 76 years old in January 2023, Lee reportedly pitched herself to donors as a transitional senator who would serve only one term.[52] A longtime progressive first elected in a 1998 special election, Lee is known for being the only member of Congress to vote against the Authorization for Use of Military Force of 2001, which led to military deployment in Afghanistan and several other countries.[53] Lee filed to run for Senate in early February 2023 and formally announced her campaign later that month.[54][4]

Feinstein continued to demur on her reelection plans, at one point saying she would not announce her decision until 2024.[55] But in February 2023, she confirmed that she would retire, ending a political career that spanned over 50 years.[56] The 2024 election is only the second California Senate race without an incumbent since 1992, the other being the 2016 election following Barbara Boxer's retirement. However, Politico pointed out that the 2016 election had an "early and prohibitive frontrunner" in Kamala Harris while the 2024 election has no clear frontrunner, and thus considers the 2024 election the first truly open California Senate race in 32 years.[57]

Katie Porter campaigning at University of California, Davis in March 2023

Lee, Porter, and Schiff have similar voting records in Congress and similarly progressive platforms. As a result, they are expected to differentiate themselves by their life stories and individual strengths rather than their ideologies.[58] All three have faced controversies that could damage their campaigns: Porter has been accused of mistreating congressional staff, Lee's age is seen as a potential issue, and Schiff is expected to face opposition from progressives due to his past support for overseas military intervention and for taking donations from groups affiliated with the oil, payday loan, and pharmaceutical industries, though he has declared he will not accept funds from corporate PACs in his Senate campaign.[59][58] Other important factors include geography, as Schiff and Porter both represent southern California while Lee represents northern California, and diversity, as a victory by Schiff would leave California with no female senators for the first time since 1992 while a victory by Lee would make her the fourth black woman to serve in the Senate and the first elected since Kamala Harris left office in 2021.[58][60]

Schiff began 2023 with $20.6 million in his campaign account compared to $7.7 million for Porter and just under $55,000 for Lee.[61] But all three quickly began raising large sums of money; for example, in the first 24 hours of her campaign, Porter raised over $1.3 million.[62] The three also launched super PACs to aid with fundraising, each competing for the top California fundraising firms and consultants. Former Federal Election Commission chair Ann Ravel predicted that the race would turn out to be one of the most expensive Senate races in history.[63] The expensive nature of the race has led media sources to speculate that a wealthy candidate may decide to launch a self-funded campaign, akin to Rick Caruso's campaign in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral election.[64] This scenario came to pass when former Google executive Lexi Reese joined the race in June 2023; her aides told Politico she would spend a "significant" amount of her own money on her campaign.[11]

Feinstein faced calls to resign throughout 2023 due to reports of her declining health, including from U.S. Representative Ro Khanna. She declined to do so.[65] California governor Gavin Newsom had previously committed to appointing a black woman to the Senate if a seat opened up, after facing controversy due to appointing Alex Padilla to the seat left behind by Kamala Harris.[66] Barbara Lee, Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass, San Francisco mayor London Breed, Los Angeles County supervisor Holly Mitchell, Secretary of State Shirley Weber, and talk show host Oprah Winfrey were named as possible appointees, though Bass, Mitchell, and Winfrey said they would not be interested.[66][67] In September 2023, Newsom confirmed he would fulfill his promise to appoint a black woman, but said he would not appoint any candidate running to succeed Feinstein, and would instead appoint someone who committed not to run for a full term. Lee, the only black woman in the race, responded, "the idea that a Black woman should be appointed only as a caretaker to simply check a box is insulting to countless Black women across this country who have carried the Democratic Party to victory election after election."[68] Lee faced backlash for her comments, with several advisors to Newsom departing from her super PAC.[69] Newsom argued that the question of a Senate vacancy was "a hypothetical on top of a hypothetical", believing that Feinstein would not leave office before her term ended.[70]

Feinstein died one week later, on September 29, 2023.[71] Newsom was expected to quickly appoint a successor, as a crisis over a potential government shutdown necessitated a united Democratic front in the Senate. A special election for Feinstein's seat will also be held concurrently with the regular 2024 election.[72] In addition to those already mentioned, possible successors speculated by media sources included PolicyLink founder Angela Glover Blackwell, former state assemblywoman Autumn Burke, EMILY's List director Laphonza Butler, State Controller Malia Cohen, California Supreme Court justice Leondra Kruger, Bay Area Rapid Transit Board of Directors president Lateefah Simon, and U.S. Representative Maxine Waters.[73][74][75][76][77] Waters and California State Board of Education president Linda Darling-Hammond said they were not interested in the appointment.[75] Congressional Black Caucus chair Steven Horsford sent a letter to Newsom on behalf of the caucus that urged him to appoint Lee.[78]

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (right) swears in Laphonza Butler (left) as Butler's wife Neneki Lee (center) looks on

On October 1, Newsom appointed Butler to the Senate, with no conditions about whether she may run in 2024.[79] Butler formerly served as president of SEIU Local 2015, the largest union in California, and on the University of California Board of Regents. She is openly lesbian, making her California's first openly LGBTQ Senator and the first openly LGBTQ black person to serve in Congress.[80] Butler's appointment was controversial, with many pointing out that she was registered to vote in Maryland at the time. Butler responded that she lived in California for many years before moving to the D.C. metropolitan area in 2021; she pointed out that she still owned a home in Los Angeles and promised to re-register in California.[81] Butler was also criticized for advising Uber as it lobbied against a 2019 California bill to classify rideshare drivers as employees. In response, she maintained that she personally supported the bill.[82] At first, Butler left open the question of whether she would run for a full term, but on October 19, she said she would not join the 2024 race.[5]

Throughout most of 2023, there were no prominent Republicans in the race. This has been attributed to California's heavy Democratic lean and Republican donors' wariness of the high cost of running a statewide campaign in California; GOP strategist Duane Dichiara estimated that a Republican would need at least $80 million to run a viable Senate campaign. Additionally, California's top-two primary system may allow two Democrats to advance to the general election, a scenario that played out in the 2016 and 2018 Senate races. But the three-way division in the Democratic field could help a Republican reach the general election. Republicans will also benefit from the fact that the 2024 California Republican presidential primary, held on the same day as the Senate primary, is expected to be hotly contested and entice Republican voters to turn out in higher numbers.[45][43] Among Republican candidates, healthcare executive James Bradley and attorney Eric Early, both of whom had previously made several unsuccessful bids for office, received the most media attention and support in polls. On October 10, 2023, Republicans gained a prominent candidate when former professional baseball player Steve Garvey entered the race. Garvey, who played for both the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres, is considered to have an advantage in name recognition, but is expected to face difficulty due to his anti-abortion beliefs and support for Donald Trump.[36]

Endorsements

Laphonza Butler (D) (declined to run)
Local officials
Eric Early (R)
Local officials
Political parties
Barbara Lee (D)
Federal officials
Statewide officials
U.S. representatives
State senators
State assemblymembers
Municipal officials
Mayors in California
Local officials
Other state representatives
California Democratic Party caucus chairs
  • Taisha Brown, former Black Caucus chair[86]
  • Ann Crosbie, former Children's Caucus chair[86]
  • Yassar Dahbour, former Arab American Caucus chair[86]
  • Fatima Iqbal-Zubair, Progressive Caucus chair[86]
  • Kendra Lewis, Black Caucus chair[86]
  • Basil Kimbrew, Veterans Caucus chair[86]
  • Rima Nashashibi, Arab American Caucus chair[86]
  • John O'Riordan, Irish American Caucus chair[86]
  • Deepa Sharma, AAPI Caucus chair[110]
  • Amar Shergill, former Progressive Caucus chair[111]
  • Igor Tregub, Environmental Caucus chair[86]
  • Tiffany Woods, former LGBTQ Caucus co-chair[89]
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Katie Porter (D)
Statewide officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
State assemblymembers
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Adam Schiff (D)
Federal officials
U.S. representatives
State senators
State assemblymembers
Municipal officials
Mayors in California
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[o]
Margin
of error
James
Bradley (R)
Eric
Early (R)
Steve
Garvey (R)
Barbara
Lee (D)
Katie
Porter (D)
Adam
Schiff (D)
Other Undecided
Data Viewpoint October 1, 2023 533 (RV) ± 4.3% 6.3% 4.4% 6.4% 18.9% 19.1% 13.5%[p] 32.4%
Public Policy Institute of California August 25 – September 5, 2023 1,146 (LV) ± 3.7% 5% 5% 8% 15% 20% 31%[q] 16%
UC Berkeley IGS August 24–29, 2023 4,579 (LV) ± 2.5% 7% 5% 7% 7% 17% 20% 12%[r] 32%
Public Policy Institute of California June 7–29, 2023 1,092 (LV) ± 3.8% 6% 7% 13% 19% 16% 33%[s] 6%
Emerson College/Inside California Politics June 4–7, 2023 1,056 (RV) ± 2.9% 6% 3% 6% 14% 15% 9%[t] 47%
UC Berkeley IGS May 17–22, 2023 5,236 (LV) ± 2.5% 18% 9% 17% 14% 10% 32%
FM3 Research[A] May 13–21, 2023 1,380 (LV) ± 4.0% 27% 11% 24% 21% 17%
UC Berkeley IGS February 14–20, 2023 7,512 (RV) ± 2.5% 8% 20% 23% 10% 39%
Hypothetical polling
Ro Khanna vs. Barbara Lee vs. Katie Porter vs. Adam Schiff
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[o]
Margin
of error
Ro
Khanna (D)
Barbara
Lee (D)
Katie
Porter (D)
Adam
Schiff (D)
Other Undecided
UC Berkeley IGS February 14–20, 2023 7,512 (RV) ± 2.5% 4% 6% 20% 22% 9% 39%
David Binder Research November 19–21, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 6% 9% 30% 29% 9%[u] 17%
With vs. without Steve Garvey
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[o]
Margin
of error
James
Bradley (R)
Eric
Early (R)
Steve
Garvey (R)
Barbara
Lee (D)
Katie
Porter (D)
Lexie
Reese (D)
Adam
Schiff (D)
Other Undecided
UC Berkeley IGS Aug 24–29, 2023 3,113 (LV) ± 2.5% 7% 5% 7% 7% 17% 1% 20% 4% 32%
10% 7% 7% 17% 1% 20% 4% 34%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2023[v]
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
James Bradley (R) $16,410 $16,150 $344
Eric Early (R) $547,023 $460,176 $86,846
Denice Gary-Pandol (R) $89,892 $84,437 $5,454
Barbara Lee (D) $3,390,204 $2,066,329 $1,323,875
Katie Porter (D) $22,130,230 $10,169,773 $11,960,457
Lexi Reese (D) $1,817,201 $1,134,723 $682,478
Adam Schiff (D) $21,520,627 $10,453,622 $32,127,523
Source: Federal Election Commission[163]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[164] Solid D May 3, 2023
Inside Elections[165] Solid D July 28, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[166] Safe D January 24, 2023
Elections Daily[167] Safe D May 4, 2023

Polling

Katie Porter vs. Adam Schiff
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[o]
Margin
of error
Katie
Porter (D)
Adam
Schiff (D)
Undecided
David Binder Research November 19–21, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 26% 37%[w]

Notes

  1. ^ In October 2023, Butler was appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy caused by the death of Senator Dianne Feinstein.
  2. ^ Ruzon is a member of the American Solidarity Party, but is running as No Party Preference because the American Solidarity Party does not currently have ballot access in California.[7]
  3. ^ Schwarzenegger is a Republican, but media speculated that he might run as an independent candidate.
  4. ^ a b Co-endorsement with Porter
  5. ^ Co-endorsement with Schiff and declared she was open to endorsing Butler if she were to declare her bid
  6. ^ Her campaign co-chair
  7. ^ Brown publicly stated he wished for Schiff, Porter, and Lee to withdraw and endorse Butler's potential bid.
  8. ^ No party preference
  9. ^ Co-endorsement with Porter and Schiff
  10. ^ Wellstone Progressive Democrats is an affiliate of both Progressive Democrats of America and Our Revolution
  11. ^ a b Co-endorsement with Lee
  12. ^ Co-endorsement with Lee and Schiff
  13. ^ Co-endorsement with Lee and declared she was open to endorsing Butler if she were to declare her bid
  14. ^ Co-endorsement with Lee and Porter
  15. ^ a b c d Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  16. ^ Sarah Liew (R) with 2.6%; Several other candidates with <2%
  17. ^ Barack Mandela, Jonathan Reiss, Jessica Resendez and "Someone else" with 3%; Roxanne Lawler, John Pappenheim, Katie Roedersheimer, and Sarah Sun Liew with 2%; Akinyemi Agbede, Paul Anderson, Dana Bobbit, Joshua Bocanegra, Danny Fabricant, Jacob Farmos, Frank Ferreria, Denise Gary-Pandol, Zakaira Kortam, Lexi Reese, John Rose, and "Would not vote" with 1%; Fepbrina Autiameineire, Jeremy Fennell, Dian Foxington, Carson Franklin, Jehu Hand, Denard Ingram, and Raji Rab with 0%
  18. ^ Lexie Reese (D) with 1%; “Others” with 4%
  19. ^ Sarah Sun Liew with 5%; Jonathan Reiss with 4%; Frank Ferreria and "Someone else" with 3%; Joshua Bocanegra, Danny Fabricant, Roxanne Lawler, Raji Rab, and Jessica Resendez with 2%; Akinyemi Agbede, Jacob Farmos, Jeremy Fennell, Denise Gary-Pandol, Denard Ingram, and Jehu Hand with 1%
  20. ^ Jessica Resendez with 3%; Douglas Howard Pierce with 2%; Frank Ferreria, Denise Gary-Pandol, Roxanne Lawler, Raji Rab, Jonathan Reiss, and "Someone else" with 1%
  21. ^ "Generic Republican" with 9%
  22. ^ Only candidates with more than $10,000 raised are included due to the large number of candidates
  23. ^ Includes "Would not vote" at 19%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Lee's campaign

References

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External links

Official campaign websites