2020 United States Senate election in South Dakota

2020 United States Senate election in South Dakota
	Rounds: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Ahlers: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%
U.S. senator before election; Mike Rounds; Republican	Elected U.S. Senator ; Mike Rounds; Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in South Dakota was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of South Dakota, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Rounds was reelected to a second term in office, overperforming Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election by 4.93 points.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Mike Rounds, incumbent U.S. senator^[1]

Eliminated in primary

Scyller Borglum, state representative^[2]

Results

Republican primary results^[3]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mike Rounds (incumbent)	70,365	75.23%
	Republican	Scyller Borglum	23,164	24.77%
Total votes			93,529	100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Daniel Ahlers, former state representative and former state senator^[4]

Did not qualify

Clara Hart, board member of the Sioux Falls Arts Council^[5]

Declined

Erin Healy, state representative^[6]
Brendan Johnson, former United States Attorney for the District of South Dakota^[7]
Billie Sutton, former minority leader of the South Dakota Senate and nominee for Governor of South Dakota in 2018^[8]
Susan Wismer, state senator and Democratic nominee for Governor of South Dakota in 2014^[6]

Independents

Candidates

Withdrew

Clayton Walker, independent candidate in the 2014 United States Senate election in South Dakota and Democratic candidate in the 2010 South Dakota House of Representatives elections^[9]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[10]	Safe R	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections^[11]	Safe R	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[12]	Safe R	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos^[13]	Safe R	October 30, 2020
Politico^[14]	Safe R	November 2, 2020
RCP^[15]	Safe R	October 23, 2020
DDHQ^[16]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
538^[17]	Safe R	November 2, 2020
Economist^[18]	Safe R	November 2, 2020

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^[a]	Margin of error	Mike Rounds (R)	Dan Ahlers (D)	Undecided
Nielson Brothers Polling^[19]	October 24–28, 2020	479 (LV)	± 4.48%	56%	39%	5%

Results

United States Senate election in South Dakota, 2020^[20]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Mike Rounds (incumbent)	276,232	65.74%	+15.37%
	Democratic	Daniel Ahlers	143,987	34.26%	+4.75%
Total votes			420,219	100.00%
	Republican hold

By county

County	Mike Rounds Republican		Daniel Ahlers Democratic		Margin		Total votes
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total votes
Aurora	1,002	71.32	403	28.68	599	42.63	1,405
Beadle	5,104	71.99	1,986	28.01	3,118	43.98	7,090
Bennett	729	62.52	437	37.48	292	25.04	1,166
Bon Homme	2,156	72.11	834	27.89	1,322	44.21	2,990
Brookings	8,792	60.48	5,746	39.52	3,046	20.95	14,538
Brown	11,168	64.00	6,283	36.00	4,885	27.99	17,451
Brule	1,735	69.65	756	30.35	979	39.30	2,491
Buffalo	223	40.92	322	59.08	-99	-18.16	545
Butte	3,809	79.85	961	20.15	2,848	59.71	4,770
Campbell	745	85.93	122	14.07	623	71.86	867
Charles Mix	2,542	66.88	1,259	33.12	1,283	33.75	3,801
Clark	1,397	75.64	450	24.36	947	51.27	1,847
Clay	2,857	50.44	2,807	49.56	50	0.88	5,664
Codington	9,479	72.33	3,626	27.67	5,853	44.66	13,105
Corson	681	53.88	583	46.12	98	7.75	1,264
Custer	3,973	72.82	1,483	27.18	2,490	45.64	5,456
Davison	5,893	69.88	2,540	30.12	3,353	39.76	8,433
Day	1,895	63.93	1,069	36.07	826	27.87	2,964
Deuel	1,714	73.18	628	26.81	1,086	46.37	2,342
Dewey	884	45.43	1,062	54.57	-178	-9.15	1,946
Douglas	1,469	86.21	235	13.79	1,234	72.42	1,704
Edmunds	1,539	77.45	448	22.55	1,091	54.91	1,987
Fall River	3,009	75.19	993	24.81	2,016	50.37	4,002
Faulk	975	82.07	213	17.93	762	64.14	1,188
Grant	2,723	72.63	1,026	27.37	1,697	45.26	3,749
Gregory	1,766	78.35	488	21.65	1,278	56.70	2,254
Haakon	1,032	90.69	106	9.31	926	81.37	1,138
Hamlin	2,413	78.60	657	21.40	1,756	57.20	3,070
Hand	1,480	79.66	378	20.34	1,102	59.31	1,858
Hanson	1,796	76.10	564	23.90	1,232	52.20	2,360
Harding	727	90.87	73	9.13	654	81.75	800
Hughes	6,217	70.95	2,546	29.05	3,671	41.89	8,763
Hutchinson	2,982	79.44	772	20.56	2,210	58.87	3,754
Hyde	568	79.89	143	20.11	425	59.78	711
Jackson	756	67.92	357	32.08	399	35.85	1,113
Jerauld	720	72.22	277	27.78	443	44.43	997
Jones	497	83.39	99	16.61	398	66.78	596
Kingsbury	1,970	70.89	809	29.11	1,161	41.78	2,779
Lake	3,816	64.84	2,069	35.16	1,747	29.69	5,885
Lawrence	9,385	68.29	4,358	31.71	5,027	36.58	13,743
Lincoln	21,221	65.83	11,013	34.17	10,208	31.67	32,234
Lyman	1,066	66.67	533	33.33	533	33.33	1,599
Marshall	1,334	61.00	853	39.00	481	22.00	2,187
McCook	2,072	71.28	835	28.72	1,237	42.55	2,907
McPherson	1,086	82.21	235	17.79	851	64.42	1,321
Meade	10,355	76.53	3,176	23.47	7,179	53.06	13,531
Mellette	468	60.70	303	39.30	165	21.40	771
Miner	807	70.42	339	29.58	468	40.84	1,146
Minnehaha	52,773	57.63	38,799	42.37	13,974	15.26	91,572
Moody	1,877	58.29	1,343	41.71	534	16.58	3,220
Oglala Lakota	510	15.93	2,691	84.07	-2,181	-68.14	3,201
Pennington	37,694	66.27	19,184	33.73	18,510	32.54	56,878
Perkins	1,395	84.85	249	15.15	1,146	69.71	1,644
Potter	1,160	83.82	224	16.18	936	67.63	1,384
Roberts	2,529	58.87	1,767	41.13	762	17.74	4,296
Sanborn	898	76.17	281	23.83	617	52.33	1,179
Spink	2,178	68.84	986	31.16	1,192	37.67	3,164
Stanley	1,274	77.12	378	22.88	896	54.24	1,652
Sully	759	81.88	168	18.12	591	63.75	927
Todd	706	28.22	1,796	71.78	-1,090	-43.56	2,502
Tripp	2,188	81.34	502	18.66	1,686	62.68	2,690
Turner	3,416	75.21	1,126	24.79	2,290	50.42	4,542
Union	6,364	72.56	2,407	27.44	3,957	45.12	8,771
Walworth	2,040	79.53	525	20.47	1,515	59.06	2,565
Yankton	6,994	64.51	3,848	35.49	3,146	29.02	10,842
Ziebach	450	49.56	458	50.44	-8	-0.88	908
Totals	276,232	65.74	143,987	34.26	132,245	31.47	420,219

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Clay (largest municipality: Vermillion)
Day (largest municipality: Webster)
Marshall (largest municipality: Britton)
Mellette (largest municipality: White River)
Roberts (largest municipality: Sisseton)

Notes

^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

References

^ Rounds, Johnson gearing up for 2020
^ Kaczke, Lisa (July 1, 2019). "Scyller Borglum, Republican legislator from Rapid City, announces U.S. Senate candidacy". Argus Leader. Retrieved July 1, 2019.
^ "2020PrimaryStateCanvassReportandCertificate.pdf" (PDF). South Dakota Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 13, 2020. Retrieved August 27, 2020.
^ "Democrat Ahlers to challenge for Senate seat". KELO Newstalk 1320 107.9. Retrieved September 26, 2019.
^ Kaczke, Lisa (November 9, 2019). "Clara Hart of Sioux Falls announces Democratic candidacy for U.S. Senate". Argus Leader. Retrieved December 6, 2019.
^ ^a ^b Singiser, Steve. "Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours?". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 19, 2019.
^ Levinson, Alexis (March 18, 2015). "Potential Thune Challenger Bows Out". Roll Call. Archived from the original on March 21, 2015. Retrieved October 11, 2018. It's certainly something that I would consider in the future,
^ KSFY (November 7, 2018). "Billie Sutton still plans to serve South Dakota in some capacity". www.ksfy.com. Retrieved September 3, 2019.
^ "SOUTH DAKOTA". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.
^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
^ "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
^ Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.
^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
^ Nielson Brothers Polling
^ "General Election - November 3, 2020" (PDF). Secretary of State of South Dakota. November 10, 2020. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 18, 2020. Retrieved November 12, 2020.

External links

Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "South Dakota", Voting & Elections Toolkits
"South Dakota: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
"League of Women Voters of South Dakota". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
South Dakota at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

Daniel Ahlers (D) for Senate
Mike Rounds (R) for Senate
Clayton Walker (I) for Senate Archived June 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine

[Key-19] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[1] Rounds, Johnson gearing up for 2020

[2] Kaczke, Lisa (July 1, 2019). "Scyller Borglum, Republican legislator from Rapid City, announces U.S. Senate candidacy". Argus Leader. Retrieved July 1, 2019.

[3] "2020PrimaryStateCanvassReportandCertificate.pdf" (PDF). South Dakota Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 13, 2020. Retrieved August 27, 2020.

[4] "Democrat Ahlers to challenge for Senate seat". KELO Newstalk 1320 107.9. Retrieved September 26, 2019.

[5] Kaczke, Lisa (November 9, 2019). "Clara Hart of Sioux Falls announces Democratic candidacy for U.S. Senate". Argus Leader. Retrieved December 6, 2019.

[Wishlist-6] Singiser, Steve. "Here's our ultimate Democratic wishlist for Senate in 2020. Who's on yours?". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 19, 2019.

[7] Levinson, Alexis (March 18, 2015). "Potential Thune Challenger Bows Out". Roll Call. Archived from the original on March 21, 2015. Retrieved October 11, 2018. It's certainly something that I would consider in the future,

[8] KSFY (November 7, 2018). "Billie Sutton still plans to serve South Dakota in some capacity". www.ksfy.com. Retrieved September 3, 2019.

[9] "SOUTH DAKOTA". Politics1. Retrieved May 17, 2020.

[Cook_PR-10] "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.

[Inside_Elections-11] "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.

[Sabato's_Crystal_Ball-12] "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.

[Daily_Kos-13] "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.

[Politico-14] "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

[RCP-15] "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.

[DDHQ-16] "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.

[17] Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 18, 2020.

[18] "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.

[20] Nielson Brothers Polling

[21] "General Election - November 3, 2020" (PDF). Secretary of State of South Dakota. November 10, 2020. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 18, 2020. Retrieved November 12, 2020.

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